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Rawls' dynasty backup (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter matttyl
- Start date
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
You mean who he's competing with for the starting job? Rawls stock took a big hit this weekend. I wouldn't assume he's a lock to be the no. 1 to start the season. And they have CMike too still.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Yeah, I don't see Rawls as a slam dunk to start either.
The only reason Rawls won't start to being the season is if he's not healthy or his off-season rehab hindered his conditioning. But, if he can't go or slowed down by conditioning to begin the season I do think if another RB got in and went wild they could run away with the job. My prediction for that person if it were to happen would be Prosise.
cr8f
Footballguy
I got it from here.
The Seahawks wanted Prosise, a Notre Dame running back, to be their third-down and pass-catching running back, a job held in previous seasons by Fred Jackson and Robert Turbin. But the current roster didn’t have a player with the necessary background or skill set.
Which is exactly why they drafted Prosise.
matttyl
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Yeah not a good weekend for rawls owners. Cjp is big and can catch. Plus they took alex collins and they still have cmike.
Tau837
Footballguy
IMO:
- Rawls will be healthy, will open the season as the starter, and will hold onto the job barring injury. I predict he will get approximately 70% of the carries, which would project to 270 carries or so. He should also be the goal line back and lead all Seattle RBs in TDs.
- Prosise will be the third down back, but in a more limited role than some third down backs because his pass protection is poor. I think his ability to thrive as a NFL RB (other than as a receiver out of the backfield) is being overrated. He has less than one full season of experience as a full-time RB, and he had fumbling, pass protection, and durability issues in that one season. He has talent and the Seahawks will coach him up, but he has a lot to learn.
- Michael will be the primary backup RB. If Rawls gets hurt, I expect he will get the first shot at filling the primary role.
- Collins will make the team and be the #4 RB, which means he likely will not be active on game day unless one of the others above is out.
- Woods won't make the team.
So I disagree with the notion that Rawls' stock took a hit. Entering the draft, the Seahawks only had two RBs under contract and expected to make the final roster. It was expected that they would add two RBs, and that is what they did.
- Rawls will be healthy, will open the season as the starter, and will hold onto the job barring injury. I predict he will get approximately 70% of the carries, which would project to 270 carries or so. He should also be the goal line back and lead all Seattle RBs in TDs.
- Prosise will be the third down back, but in a more limited role than some third down backs because his pass protection is poor. I think his ability to thrive as a NFL RB (other than as a receiver out of the backfield) is being overrated. He has less than one full season of experience as a full-time RB, and he had fumbling, pass protection, and durability issues in that one season. He has talent and the Seahawks will coach him up, but he has a lot to learn.
- Michael will be the primary backup RB. If Rawls gets hurt, I expect he will get the first shot at filling the primary role.
- Collins will make the team and be the #4 RB, which means he likely will not be active on game day unless one of the others above is out.
- Woods won't make the team.
So I disagree with the notion that Rawls' stock took a hit. Entering the draft, the Seahawks only had two RBs under contract and expected to make the final roster. It was expected that they would add two RBs, and that is what they did.
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Yet I think it is being portrayed overly negative especially when you look at in the context of they already told you they were going to address RB and Rawls as of a month ago when I last heard an update was not yet cleared to run.
Vibe I'm getting from fantasy community is that the Dolphins took a big back that can catch early and people say Ajayi came out as a winner and Seattle takes a big back that can catch early and it's terrible news for Rawls. Can't say I agree with that disconnect but I also don't think much of Collins and the real loser in Seattle is CMIKE owners who thought a Rawls injury might open things up for him.
Not much changed for me in terms of how I view Rawls, it's really all about his health and conditioning. To me that's his competition, not another RB on the team.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
People down talking/ranking Rawls are making a terrible mistake.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Wait, so you're saying the Seahawks drafted a RB who can't pass protect as their 3rd down back? That makes no sense.IMO:
- Rawls will be healthy, will open the season as the starter, and will hold onto the job barring injury. I predict he will get approximately 70% of the carries, which would project to 270 carries or so. He should also be the goal line back and lead all Seattle RBs in TDs.
- Prosise will be the third down back, but in a more limited role than some third down backs because his pass protection is poor. I think his ability to thrive as a NFL RB (other than as a receiver out of the backfield) is being overrated. He has less than one full season of experience as a full-time RB, and he had fumbling, pass protection, and durability issues in that one season. He has talent and the Seahawks will coach him up, but he has a lot to learn.
- Michael will be the primary backup RB. If Rawls gets hurt, I expect he will get the first shot at filling the primary role.
- Collins will make the team and be the #4 RB, which means he likely will not be active on game day unless one of the others above is out.
- Woods won't make the team.
So I disagree with the notion that Rawls' stock took a hit. Entering the draft, the Seahawks only had two RBs under contract and expected to make the final roster. It was expected that they would add two RBs, and that is what they did.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Happens all the time. They used to be called scatbacks. More receiver then runner and marginal blockers at best.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Rawls has such a small sample size that I'm not really sure how anybody is projecting a 2015 UDFA as a slam dunk over 3rd and 5th round draft picks. IMO he's the early favorite, as he's got a season in the system already, and he looked pretty good when he did play, but beyond that?
Tau837
Footballguy
Exactly. Woodhead is a great example of a great receiving back who is poor at pass protection, yet he is used extensively. He just isn't asked to pass protect much, he is running routes.
Just read Prosise's draft profiles. For example, from his NFL draft profile:
Unworried Rawls owners are either lying or trending towards delusional IMO. Don't get me wrong, he flashed nicely last season. But he did so as an UDFA in what amounted to a 6 game sample. A limited sample through which he didn't stay healthy. If I held him I'd be hitting the market to sell to those who value Rawls as a top 10 dynasty RB. There's no way I'd have any comfort in holding him at his current value knowing what we know about Seattle's intent, which isn't a whole lot.
Tau837
Footballguy
He looked much better than "pretty good" when he played. He looked like the second coming of Lynch in his prime.
matttyl
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
You had to make personal attacks about possible Rawls owner in order to make an argument?
What a horrible post. It stinks of the crap that plagued the Christine Michael thread for years.
Tau837
Footballguy
Are you implying that the fact that he broke his ankle shows he is injury prone? If not, what is the purpose of your bolded statement?
Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
Arian Foster seemed to do OK as an UDFA after playing in only 6 games his rookie year.
Didn't people project an UDFA in Arian Foster over a 2nd round pick in Ben Tate? Foster had shown less than Rawls has at this point too.
Besides, lot more people saying Rawls took a giant hit and will lose his job than otherwise. I just got told in one league that Rawls isn't even worth a 1st round pick anymore. That's rookie fever rearing its head IMO.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
TJones was 1400 with 14 TDs.
BJGE/Ridley were 1100 with 12 TDs.
Ridley was 1200 with 12 TDs.
Mathews was 1400 wih 7 TDs.
So #### yeah he has.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Yes:
- In 2010, Woodhead was the #28 fantasy RB in the same season that his teammate BJGE was the #15 fantasy RB.
- In 2012, Woodhead was the #24 fantasy RB in the same season that his teammate Ridley was the #10 fantasy RB.
- In 2013, Woodhead was the #19 fantasy RB in the same season that his teammate Mathews was the #12 fantasy RB.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
You know, as far as Woodhead as a comparable goes, having a 3rd down back that is known for running routes instead of staying in to block, means that a linebacker is going to be assigned to him instead of potentially coming after the QB. It's almost the same thing as leaving him into block, except the offense gets the upside of a completed reception for X yards. Don't get me wrong, if Procise really is that bad at pass protection, then that could certainly keep him off the field, but I would expect him to carve a role on 3rd down. I still say the early down work goes to Rawls. Keep in mind, Rawls can catch, he just wasn't asked to much. During a 3 week stretch before his injury and while he was the main guy, he caught 6 balls for 68 yards and a TD. Incredibly small sample and it's not earth shattering, but let's not act like he has hands of stone, either. Health and the timing of his return could be huge, though.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
matttyl
Footballguy
Thanks. It was an honest question. I just couldn't think that far back on the spot.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
Rawls was set to be my RB3 this year so color me concerned.
I think he can still be a good RB2 for fantasy but the draft certainly curbed my enthusiasm.
It will be difficult to move him at this time so I view him as a hold.
I think he can still be a good RB2 for fantasy but the draft certainly curbed my enthusiasm.
It will be difficult to move him at this time so I view him as a hold.
Yeah, this is what bothers me. The guy basically played 6 games. He looked good, but keep in mind they won all six of those games and we all know winning games produce favorable rushing stats and half of those games were blowouts. You could plug about anyone in there and they'd look good given the situation.
As Lloyd Christmas said, "so you're saying there's a chance." Given a large enough sample size, everything will happen. FF is a probability game.
Edit: was just looking at the scores in his play-by-play. I forgot that the Seahawks blew a 24-7 lead vs. CIN in OT. Rawls didn't record a carry in OT. So they were technically 5-1 in his 6 games as a lead back. Given that he's not the complete back that Lynch was, I'm not sure he stays relevant in losses or games in which they plan to pass a lot. The prediction of 270 carries I saw earlier seems very generous. That's pretty much assuming he steps right into the Lynch role minus a few 3rd down carries and receptions.
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Personal attacks? C'mon. All I said was "Rawls owner's expressing no concern are either lying or trending towards delusional." I'll stand by that, even if it greatly offends the Rawls owners. Instead of telling you to grow a pair, I'll offer my apologies.
Sure, the Seahawks needed depth. But at a point in the draft in the late 3rd where IMO there were a solid 6-8 comparably valued RB's, they took the 4th RB off the board. Considering the 3rd round investment, it seems safe to say that the Seahawks had at least a 3rd round grade on him, and potentially late 2nd. Not content, they added another RB in the 5th and for good measure tacked on a third one in the 7th round. Could Prosise be relegated to duties as a receiving specialist or 2 minute offense RB? Absolutely. But to pretend that he's not a threat to Rawls for every down duties is extremely short sighted.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
FWIW in the 3 games of Prosise that I watched I noted a few times where he aggressively pursued potential pass rushers and met them near the line of scrimmage and blocked them. I did not notice him missing key protections when asked to do so either.
It was only 3 games, but he didn't seem clueless or inept on these assignments that I observed.
I voted for Collins who I think is a better overall RB than Prosise. But honestly I think Michael may be the mosttalented athletic of them aside from Rawls. The Seahawks already traded him away however and then he was cut by Dallas. There are reasons to doubt him getting another chance to be the starter for Seattle.
It was only 3 games, but he didn't seem clueless or inept on these assignments that I observed.
I voted for Collins who I think is a better overall RB than Prosise. But honestly I think Michael may be the most
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Tau837
Footballguy
Take it at face value. I'm hoping it's acceptable to Rawls owners when facts are presented. So sure, he could very well be injury prone. He could also be a workhorse that suffered a fluke injury during a half seasons worth of work which ends up being the only injury he suffers in a decade long Hall of Fame career. He could be Arian Foster. He could also be a flash in the pan UDFA that caught lightning in a bottle on a solid ground and pound offense for a few games and ends up getting replaced by competition that was drafted in the 3rd round, 5th round, or 7th round of the current draft, Christine Michael, or heaven forbid another UDFA that impresses the coaching staff.
The point is, Rawls is as high risk of a top 10 rated RB I've seen in 25+ years of playing ffball. I think that speaks as much to the current RB landscape being pretty poor as it does to anything else. I'm a seller if I own Rawls, and no way I'm paying a top 10 dynasty RB price to acquire him if I don't.
djmich
Footballguy
Rawls owner here.
Yah I'm nervous, how can you not be. I'm nervous about DeMarco losing carries to Henry, about Hill rebounding from a bad year and losing time to Gio, about David Johnson being able to follow up and be a RB1 for a full season and I have no idea what Hyde can do for a full year.
I'm nervous about Rawls because I might have a RB1 on my hands but he didn't do it for a full slate. Welcome to fantasy football.
Biggest thing I'm worried about on Rawls is him getting back for game 1. It's his job to lose, period. Carroll has said Prosise is 3rd down guy, and I'd be shocked if that's not the case for at least this year, even with a Rawls injury. Seattle went ahead and drafted another thumper in Collins to prove the point. If Prosise was so great and Michael too then why also draft Collins...because Prosise is 3rd down guy and Michael is not a guy you bank your season on.
Rawls comes back game 1 and does what he did last year, its his job.
Yah I'm nervous, how can you not be. I'm nervous about DeMarco losing carries to Henry, about Hill rebounding from a bad year and losing time to Gio, about David Johnson being able to follow up and be a RB1 for a full season and I have no idea what Hyde can do for a full year.
I'm nervous about Rawls because I might have a RB1 on my hands but he didn't do it for a full slate. Welcome to fantasy football.
Biggest thing I'm worried about on Rawls is him getting back for game 1. It's his job to lose, period. Carroll has said Prosise is 3rd down guy, and I'd be shocked if that's not the case for at least this year, even with a Rawls injury. Seattle went ahead and drafted another thumper in Collins to prove the point. If Prosise was so great and Michael too then why also draft Collins...because Prosise is 3rd down guy and Michael is not a guy you bank your season on.
Rawls comes back game 1 and does what he did last year, its his job.
Tau837
Footballguy
Yeah, that was my prediction. Here is my logic:
- I assume the Seahawks will have from 380-400 RB rushing attempts, since they have had at least that many in every season under Carroll.
- I assume Rawls will be healthy to open the season and will be the starting RB. In that role, and given I expect he will be clearly better than the other RBs, I expect he will get about 70% of the carries. If he stays healthy, that puts him at around 270 carries, which would be about 17 per game. Lynch averaged 295 carries per season from 2011-2014, so this is almost a 10% reduction.
- As for receptions, Lynch averaged just under 2 receptions per game from 2011-2014. When Lynch got hurt the second time last year, Rawls played 3 full games before getting hurt and had 6/68/1 receiving in those games. Small sample size, of course, and he did not get targeted earlier in the season when he stepped in for Lynch, but IMO it shows that he has the potential to eventually get to 2 receptions per game, same as Lynch.
- And, yes, I am expecting him to step into the Lynch role. That's exactly what he did last year in the games he started until he broke his ankle.
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Prosise will not take carries from him, Collins will. If you want his backup, take Collins.
Prosise will be 3rd down back with a chance to be the guy next year, imo.
beerbuff
Footballguy
I think Rawls won't have any problem holding these guys off based on how he played last year. Prosise will be the 3rd down back but Rawls will be the workhorse. If Rawls goes down then I'd look at at 50/50 split with Prosise and Collins. Prosise would be the best 'handcuff' as he'll be playing no matter if Rawls is playing or not.
In 2014, Lynch's last healthy year, he had very little quality competition, played 670 snaps, and totaled 280 carries with 16 on third down. Given that Rawls is unlikely to be as good as Lynch in any facet of the game, much less every facet, I doubt he plays nearly as many snaps. Another reason for the lower expected snap count would be the fact that he's got better competition than Lynch had in 2014. Turbin and Michael were the only guys who got carries other than Lynch in 2014. I'd say these rookies plus a more mature (?) Michael present more of a threat to Rawls than Turbin and 2014 Michael did to the very established Lynch.Just Win Baby said:
As for my OT comment, I wasn't going anywhere with that. Just pointing out why I initially thought they won all 6 of his statistically significant games - I was only looking at the play-by-plays and saw they were winning when he had his last carry late in the 4th quarter. My main point was that Rawls only really has a 6 game sample and those six games were very favorable for running back statistics. Thus, I wouldn't crown him just yet. There is a very real possibility that he's just a flash in the pan.
I'm surprised by how little respect Michael is getting. Every interview from after they brought him back, was about how he was a completely different guy mentally, and then he went out and had success in the freezing cold against Minnesota in the playoffs.
I am also blown away, and have been all offseason, by how much people love Alex Collins. He's the most nondescript RB I've seen in years. He does pretty much nothing well, and is the very definition of "just a guy" he's Lawfirm at best. I'd be shocked if he was able to pass Michael for the backup job.
I am also blown away, and have been all offseason, by how much people love Alex Collins. He's the most nondescript RB I've seen in years. He does pretty much nothing well, and is the very definition of "just a guy" he's Lawfirm at best. I'd be shocked if he was able to pass Michael for the backup job.
Thomas Rawls averaged over 5 YPC, Stacy wasn't even over 4. Stacy was only fantasy relevant because Jeff Fisher gave him 25 touches every week.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Heep
Footballguy
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He averaged over 5 ypc... in 6 games... 3 of which were blowouts... they went 2-1 in the others and were actually up 24-7 in the 4th Q in the one loss. He also ran behind the 4th best blocking line and played with Russell Wilson. Stacy played for 15 games... on a losing team... with a mediocre line... with a predictable coach... with the worst passing attack in the NFL. Apples and oranges.
I like how they show the same plays from different angles at different times in the clip rather than back to back, making it appear like a different highlight.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Trent Richardson's highlight reel from his rookie season makes him look scary good - it's amazing what choosing a RBs biggest plays and putting them altogether can do.
That's not really a comment on Rawls necessarily - just saying that we could do this for almost any RB and make them look unstoppable.
Any yes, I also noticed that they dispersed the same highlight runs a few different times throughout that reel - making it look like he had multiple 69 yard TD runs.
Agreed, I probably come off as anti-Rawls here since I'm not joining in on the circle jerk, but I really just think there's very little data on him so I'm withholding judgment. He's got mediocre measureables and a tiny sample size of success under extremely favorable circumstances - should give people pause but it seems like the bandwagon is full steam ahead. FFcalc has him going RB8. That's way too rich for my blood with such a tiny amount of data.
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