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TheBottomLine

Su'a Cravens - SS/LB WAS

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I mean in general dynasty rankings of DBs, is this guy a top 10 guy right now?  21 years old - a history of playing as an in the box LB, and now finally listed as a DB.  I'm not calling him the next Collins, but I can't really name a whole lot of guys I'd rather have on a dynasty roster as the position. 

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2 hours ago, matttyl said:

I mean in general dynasty rankings of DBs, is this guy a top 10 guy right now?  21 years old - a history of playing as an in the box LB, and now finally listed as a DB.  I'm not calling him the next Collins, but I can't really name a whole lot of guys I'd rather have on a dynasty roster as the position. 

No, and even if so it doesn't mean much.  DB's are so easy to replace year over year unless you have Collins/Reshad you're better off in my leagues just hitting waivers.  Give me the next Kurt Coleman or Tony Jefferson and let me save my draft spots/roster stashes for Reeves-Maybin or Devante Mays.

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Big fan, think he could easily be in the Collins/Jones discussion at some point this year.  

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6 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Give me the next Kurt Coleman or Tony Jefferson and let me save my draft spots/roster stashes for Reeves-Maybin or Devante Mays.

 

I'll take Cravens over either one of those 2 every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

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9 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

I'll take Cravens over either one of those 2 every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

In a vaccuum I would too.  But you're not going to get Cravens for the price of a dynasty stash too often.  My comment was more generalized about DB's in general and not so much about Cravens per se.  I'd add him in that context over the two I cited but, being such a small league, there are likely others on waivers I'd rather stash at other positions.  In general the opportunity cost he presents in larger leagues far outweighs the value of the position in my mind.  And I like Cravens plenty, he's got a chance to be really good.  But every year DB's pop up on waivers and put up top 5 production.

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I'm in some fairly deep dynasty leagues and Cravens was acquired for stash prices.  Most of these types are, like Killebrew last year too.  Same story this year, the names are just different - Budda Baker, Josh Jones, Justin Evans.  The only ones that usually aren't are guys like Adams.  And if you're in any of my leagues - Peppers.  Funny that Coleman is the talking point because I picked him 4 spots after I picked Cravens last year though.

In most formats I don't think it's good roster management to have your roster filled with these types because of the replacement value at the position, but one or two?  Absolutely.

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25 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

But you're not going to get Cravens for the price of a dynasty stash too often. 

He's currently a free agent in my league, and our rookie/free agent draft starts a week from today.  Typically there are a few free agents veterans that are still "drafted" in the rookie draft each year.  I'm thinking of using something in the late 3rd or 4th round to get him as it may be the last roster spot on my 31 man roster (10 team league).  Too much?

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45 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

In a vaccuum I would too.  But you're not going to get Cravens for the price of a dynasty stash too often.  My comment was more generalized about DB's in general and not so much about Cravens per se.  I'd add him in that context over the two I cited but, being such a small league, there are likely others on waivers I'd rather stash at other positions.  In general the opportunity cost he presents in larger leagues far outweighs the value of the position in my mind.  And I like Cravens plenty, he's got a chance to be really good.  But every year DB's pop up on waivers and put up top 5 production.

 

First, let me say I appreciate the conversation.

 

That said, I'm going to have to disagree with you.  Our league breaks out Ss and CBs, and it is a 14 team league that starts 11 on D, so that is my context.

 

If you are speaking to CBs I'll agree with you.  FF CBs are a bit odd in that you can get top scorers every year on the WW.  I feel that has to do with CBs being able to score well if they get targeted a lot, which means crappy CBs can score very well, or mediocre CBs slotted opposite a legit shutdown CB.  Top CBs are always in flux year to year.

 

Ss are a bit different in that SSs tend to score much better than FSs, which culls the herd.  Then you have to find a SS who is on a team that schemes them into a lot of box play or who is a superior athlete who can cover a lot of ground and reads/fills quickly, or who can handle most TE or slot WRs.  That further limits options.

 

Will you find decent SSs who rise into good spots on the WW?  Sure, by my experience about as much as you can RBs, WRs, and LBs.  Every one of my leaguemates are looking for those guys too, so I sure can't rely on just plucking them off the WW any time I want.  I sure wouldn't let a top drafted player like Cravens in that position go and hope to find a flyer next year in the dregs of the next year's draft.

 

And more specifically speaking to Cravens and letting him dangle, my thoughts the whole time last year was that WAS was grooming him last year by playing him at LB with every intent of moving him back to SS.  I didn't expect the grooming to last an entire season, but that's out of my control.  I thought WAS's plan the whole time was to get him experience at LB so that he could become a base SS and a nickel/dime LB.  If that's the case, being patient and holding him could easily result in having a plug and play top SS for the next decade.

 

I'll sure take a chance and hold that roster spot over hoping to find a late round flyer in the following year's draft when we're speaking about the level of players like Reeves-Maybin or Mays who have such obvious warts that I just can't project them into regular FF values.  Either of those guys turning into startable or flex FF players is much, much riskier than Cravens doing so.  IMO.

 

.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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42 minutes ago, matttyl said:

He's currently a free agent in my league, and our rookie/free agent draft starts a week from today.  Typically there are a few free agents veterans that are still "drafted" in the rookie draft each year.  I'm thinking of using something in the late 3rd or 4th round to get him as it may be the last roster spot on my 31 man roster (10 team league).  Too much?

I don't have a good reference for 10 man with short bench but at the risk of getting into AC territory, yes, this sounds like too much to me.  3rd round rookie is in the late 20's so guys like Cunningham, Jamaal Williams?  Marlon Mack or Duke Riley into the 4th?  I'm not taking a DB over those guys when I can wait and get other waiver guys afterward. 

31 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

I'll sure take a chance and hold that roster spot over hoping to find a late round flyer in the following year's draft when we're speaking about the level of players like Reeves-Maybin or Mays who have such obvious warts that I just can't project them into regular FF values.  Either of those guys turning into startable or flex FF players is much, much riskier than Cravens doing so.  IMO..

Again, don't focus on those particular names.  They were in the context of 16 man leagues which is what I"m in so that's where my mind went.  Cravens has zero chance to be on waivers in those leagues.  In a 10 man league those names are Duke Riley, Jamaal Williams types.  I'm not taking Cravens over those guys when I can probably get whoever breaks out among Tavon Wilson, Quinton Demps, Jaquiski Tartt, JJ Wilcox on waivers later. 

Edited by Hankmoody

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18 minutes ago, matttyl said:

He's currently a free agent in my league, and our rookie/free agent draft starts a week from today.  Typically there are a few free agents veterans that are still "drafted" in the rookie draft each year.  I'm thinking of using something in the late 3rd or 4th round to get him as it may be the last roster spot on my 31 man roster (10 team league).  Too much?

Depends how many stash's you already have on your roster and what's usually available on waivers at other positions, but I'd say your last roster spot is appropriate.  I think at least Adams and Peppers should be prioritized to him though.  If you don't get Cravens then there should be at least a few similar guys available too.

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5 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I don't have a good reference for 10 man with short bench but yes, this sounds like too much to me.  3rd round rookie is in the late 20's so guys like Cunningham, Jamaal Williams?  Marlon Mack or Duke Riley into the 4th?  I'm not taking a DB over those guys when I can wait and get other waiver guys afterward.  Who else is at DB on your waivers?

Well, all the rookie DBS, Cravens, Geathers, Malcolm Jenkins, TJ Ward, Ronald Darby, J Addae just to name a few.  I typically agree that DBs aren't something you should fill your roster up with when it's so easily replaceable.  I already have Collins, Burnett, and Bethea (who while a great fantasy DB last year, is old and now on a new team). 

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14 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

First, let me say I appreciate the conversation.

That said, I'm going to have to disagree with you.  Our league breaks out Ss and CBs, and it is a 14 team league that starts 11 on D, so that is my context.

If you are speaking to CBs I'll agree with you.  FF CBs are a bit odd in that you can get top scorers every year on the WW.  I feel that has to do with CBs being able to score well if they get targeted a lot, which means crappy CBs can score very well, or mediocre CBs slotted opposite a legit shutdown CB.  Top CBs are always in flux year to year.

Ss are a bit different in that SSs tend to score much better than FSs, which culls the herd.  Then you have to find a SS who is on a team that schemes them into a lot of box play or who is a superior athlete who can cover a lot of ground and reads/fills quickly, or who can handle most TE or slot WRs.  That further limits options.

Will you find decent SSs who rise into good spots on the WW?  Sure, by my experience about as much as you can RBs, WRs, and LBs.  Every one of my leaguemates are looking for those guys too, so I sure can't rely on just plucking them off the WW any time I want.  I sure wouldn't let a top drafted player like Cravens in that position go and hope to find a flyer next year in the dregs of the next year's draft.

And more specifically speaking to Cravens and letting him dangle, my thoughts the whole time last year was that WAS was grooming him last year by playing him at LB with every intent of moving him back to SS.  I didn't expect the grooming to last an entire season, but that's out of my control.  I thought WAS's plan the whole time was to get him experience at LB so that he could become a base SS and a nickel/dime LB.  If that's the case, being patient and holding him could easily result in having a plug and play top SS for the next decade.

I'll expand a bit on this too.  I'm in some leagues that separate out CB/S and some leagues that don't.  I don't see any difference in them getting quality at S.  Guys like Tony Jefferson, Kurt Coleman.  Last year specifically Donte Witner, Tavon Wilson and Daniel Sorensam were both quality starters on my teams from waivers. 

 

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5 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Well, all the rookie DBS, Cravens, Geathers, Malcolm Jenkins, TJ Ward, Ronald Darby, J Addae just to name a few.  I typically agree that DBs aren't something you should fill your roster up with when it's so easily replaceable.  I already have Collins, Burnett, and Bethea (who while a great fantasy DB last year, is old and now on a new team). 

Totally makes my point.  Addae was S5 and TJ ward was S6 in my league last year.  I'm drafting home runs at RB/WR/LB and coming back later to get top 10 DB's on waivers.

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1 hour ago, matttyl said:

He's currently a free agent in my league, and our rookie/free agent draft starts a week from today.  Typically there are a few free agents veterans that are still "drafted" in the rookie draft each year.  I'm thinking of using something in the late 3rd or 4th round to get him as it may be the last roster spot on my 31 man roster (10 team league).  Too much?

Late 4th sounds right, especially if you cannot see any draft pick past that making the team.  How many rounds?

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59 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Totally makes my point.  Addae was S5 and TJ ward was S6 in my league last year.  I'm drafting home runs at RB/WR/LB and coming back later to get top 10 DB's on waivers.

 

Well, that is a luxury in smaller leagues that don't have a lot of developmental roster space.

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28 minutes ago, massraider said:

Late 4th sounds right, especially if you cannot see any draft pick past that making the team.  How many rounds?

5 - so a total of 50 draft picks, starting next week.  We then will have a 2 round waiver run just prior to the start of the season, if you want to participate.  I'm not sure I want to wait till then to target him. 

Let me also state that I'm a Redkins fan, and year after year we have these types of players who are technically playing one position, but are listed as another (a guy playing LB listed as a DB which Cravens could be doing some of, a guy playing LB listed as a DL like Mack was last year which literally was the difference for the guy who won our title). 

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4 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Well, that is a luxury in smaller leagues that don't have a lot of developmental roster space.

Not really.  I just named a bunch of other guys that were the same case.  Tony Jefferson was a top 10 DB two years in a row.  Kurt Coleman.  David Bruton.  Mike Adams.  Corey Graham.  Mark Barron.  All from waivers in 12 and 16 man deep leagues the last few years, all put up top 5-10 seasons.  They rarely have much staying power, but that's the nature of the position, and those that do obviously aren't on waivers. 

What is a luxury of smaller leagues is a guy like Cravens being available in the first place.  The better comp if you are talking bigger leagues would be Miles Killebrew or Jaquiski Tartt.  If those guys are on waivers in a 16 man league they are borderline worth picking up.  I'd rather draft Reeves-Maybin and grab Maurice Alexander or Quinton Demps and adjust the DB after week 2 or 3 as necessary.  Someone will be there.

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37 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Not really.  I just named a bunch of other guys that were the same case.  Tony Jefferson was a top 10 DB two years in a row.  Kurt Coleman.  David Bruton.  Mike Adams.  Corey Graham.  Mark Barron.  All from waivers in 12 and 16 man deep leagues the last few years, all put up top 5-10 seasons.  They rarely have much staying power, but that's the nature of the position, and those that do obviously aren't on waivers. 

What is a luxury of smaller leagues is a guy like Cravens being available in the first place.  The better comp if you are talking bigger leagues would be Miles Killebrew or Jaquiski Tartt.  If those guys are on waivers in a 16 man league they are borderline worth picking up.  I'd rather draft Reeves-Maybin and grab Maurice Alexander or Quinton Demps and adjust the DB after week 2 or 3 as necessary.  Someone will be there.

 

Yeah, like TJ Ward.  6th round pick in 2010 and has been on the same roster since.  I get that you are in a smaller league where there are more options.  That may not be true in larger leagues that have developmental room.  Killebrew and Tartt are both rostered by the teams that drafted them.  They've never been FAs.

 

We have 14 good owners and most of them look for guys like Addai, and not everyone can get him on the WW.  I'm struggling to see why you can't recognize that your strategy in your league doesn't transcend all leagues.

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So you're not even reading what I write, super.  Have a good one.

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I get the vet DB off waivers argument and while there are top 10 guys out there every year there are also Reggie Nelson's and Chris Conte's that put up those numbers in September then regress to who they are.  Just like there are only so many roster spots for stash's like Cravens there are only so many roster spots for mediocre vets that may or may not keep producing.

I treat each league a little differently, but generally speaking I really try to find the balance between the two approach's - waiting to see who slips then acquire them rather than get tunnel vision for just a guy or three.

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The reason that I initially was asking about Cravens here is that I have yet to even see him show up on any dynasty idp rankings - either as a LB or as a DB.  The dynasty rankings here at FBGs don't have listed in either, and the great rankings by onionsack in another thread didn't have him listed.  With this official designation move to SS, was just curious how he was being viewed. 

I was messing around with the "projections" on my mfl league for defensive players, and Cravens is projected to be the #1 DB in my league (.1 points above Collins).  They are projecting 91 solos, 31 assisted, and a total of 8 forced fumble, recoveries, sacks and INTs.  Pretty much what Cyprien did last year. 

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1 hour ago, matttyl said:

The reason that I initially was asking about Cravens here is that I have yet to even see him show up on any dynasty idp rankings - either as a LB or as a DB.  The dynasty rankings here at FBGs don't have listed in either, and the great rankings by onionsack in another thread didn't have him listed.  With this official designation move to SS, was just curious how he was being viewed. 

I was messing around with the "projections" on my mfl league for defensive players, and Cravens is projected to be the #1 DB in my league (.1 points above Collins).  They are projecting 91 solos, 31 assisted, and a total of 8 forced fumble, recoveries, sacks and INTs.  Pretty much what Cyprien did last year. 

It is odd that he is not in the rankings, but both of FBG's IDP projectors have him included in their safety charts.

Norton has him as safety #10 and Rudnicki as #21, so there is (not surprisingly) a high variance in his projections, but the average seems to be about in line with my expectations.

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3 minutes ago, Arodin said:

It is odd that he is not in the rankings, but both of FBG's IDP projectors have him included in their safety charts.

Norton has him as safety #10 and Rudnicki as #21, so there is (not surprisingly) a high variance in his projections, but the average seems to be about in line with my expectations.

Where can those be found?  And thank you so much for the response!

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3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

So you're not even reading what I write, super.  Have a good one.

 

:shakinghead:

 

If I'm not reading what you're writing, how is it I'm using the players you named as great FA pickups as counterexamples of guys not being available in deeper leagues with developmental room?

I agree with you though, trying to discuss this further with you is pointless.  Really too bad, IMO.

 

.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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30 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

:shakinghead:

 

If I'm not reading what you're writing, how is it I'm using the players you named as great FA pickups as counterexamples of guys not being available in deeper leagues with developmental room?

I agree with you though, trying to discuss this further with you is pointless.  Really too bad, IMO.

 

.

You used two, both from a reply I gave to the guy discussing his 10 man league.  I don't play in 10 man leagues.

I specifically said I am in multiple 16 man leagues and proceeded to name about 10 different guys I myself have gotten off waivers in those leagues.  You didn't reply to a single one of those.

Tartt was available on waivers in two of my leagues, and was used as a comparison of the talent a 16 man league might see vs. a 10 man league seeing Cravens.  If he or Killebrew were on waivers there is a lot less compelling reason to grab them vs. holding onto a rookie stash and hitting waivers for any of the half dozen+ guys I named.

I'm not even getting into the "We have 14 good owners" comment.

 

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