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Trading Mike Trout (in real-life) (1 Viewer)

oso diablo

oso diablo

Footballguy
With the Angels losing Garrett Richards and (maybe) Andrew Heaney to TJS, in addition to the rest of their rotation in shambles, the topic du jour is whether the Angels might consider trading Mike Trout in a rebuilding move.

So. what would your home team offer for Trout?

Note: Trout is under contract for the next 5 years (through 2020).

2016: $15.25 million
2017: $19.25 million
2018: $33.25 million
2019: $33.25 million
2020: $33.25 million

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Smack Tripper said:
Texas has the excess prospects to do it. Maybe Pittsburgh too. 
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I doubt the Angels would trade him to a division rival (I doubt they'd trade him at all, but that's beside the point). Pittsburgh can't afford to take on that contract, and is set in the outfield anyway.

 
oso diablo said:
With the Angels losing Garrett Richards and (maybe) Andrew Heaney to TJS, in addition to the rest of their rotation in shambles, the topic du jour is whether the Angels might consider trading Mike Trout in a rebuilding move.

So. what would your home team offer for Trout?

Note: Trout is under contract for the next 5 years (through 2020).

2016: $15.25 million
2017: $19.25 million
2018: $33.25 million
2019: $33.25 million
2020: $33.25 million
Click to expand...


For serious... let's say he averages 8 wins per season over those next 4 years and you get 5 wins this season. For that you pay 130mil. At $8mil/win, that's 37 wins/296 million in value, getting you a cool 166 million in surplus value. Plus a bonus for him being elite - the 8th win above replacement is worth more than the 7th. Plus a bonus for marketability. Call it an even 200mil.

Texas can throw down Mazara (let's say 3 WAR average), Gallo (2 WAR average) and Profar (2 WAR average - I love the guy and would go higher, but being conservative). Plus Luis Ortiz or some other pitching prospects. Those 3 guys will give you 3 seasons of basically free WAR (league minimum salary) so that's 21 WAR in free value, or about 168 million in surplus. They'll earn some surplus in arbitration as well, maybe that gets you close to 200mil. The Angels will probably want you to overpay, though, so in addition to Ortiz, you're probably throwing in Dillon Tate and maybe even Martin Perez, who is healthy and pitching now, and signed through 2020 with 3 nice cheap team options. Or maybe the Angels like Brinson instead of Gallo since they need a CF. That's probably more realistic.

So there you go.... Mazara, Brinson, Profar, Tate/Ortiz, Martin Perez. If you're Texas, do you want to do that? You've got Trout, Hamels, Beltre, Fielder, Choo, Darvish... and you're praying Joey Gallo works out and that you can somehow get through the season with Derek Holland and Colby Lewis as prominent players in your rotation.

 
Spartans Rule said:
I doubt the Angels would trade him to a division rival (I doubt they'd trade him at all, but that's beside the point). Pittsburgh can't afford to take on that contract, and is set in the outfield anyway.
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Yup Trout is an upgrade to anyone not named Harper but no chance in hell Pittsburgh would ever trade for him.  

 
The problem with Franco's math is there is a lot of opportunity cost involved with transferring 1 8WAR player into 8war divided up.  You aren't really replacing replacement level players at all positions. You're using up 3-5 lineup/rotation spots to achieve 8 War so you definitely lose whatever WAR you would have achieved at those position. 

 
I don't think you can make it work without at least 1 5 win player with at least the same amount of years under control.  That means basically I'm calling Houston.  

 
jfranco77 said:
For serious... let's say he averages 8 wins per season over those next 4 years and you get 5 wins this season. For that you pay 130mil. At $8mil/win, that's 37 wins/296 million in value, getting you a cool 166 million in surplus value. Plus a bonus for him being elite - the 8th win above replacement is worth more than the 7th. Plus a bonus for marketability. Call it an even 200mil.

Texas can throw down Mazara (let's say 3 WAR average), Gallo (2 WAR average) and Profar (2 WAR average - I love the guy and would go higher, but being conservative). Plus Luis Ortiz or some other pitching prospects. Those 3 guys will give you 3 seasons of basically free WAR (league minimum salary) so that's 21 WAR in free value, or about 168 million in surplus. They'll earn some surplus in arbitration as well, maybe that gets you close to 200mil. The Angels will probably want you to overpay, though, so in addition to Ortiz, you're probably throwing in Dillon Tate and maybe even Martin Perez, who is healthy and pitching now, and signed through 2020 with 3 nice cheap team options. Or maybe the Angels like Brinson instead of Gallo since they need a CF. That's probably more realistic.

So there you go.... Mazara, Brinson, Profar, Tate/Ortiz, Martin Perez. If you're Texas, do you want to do that? You've got Trout, Hamels, Beltre, Fielder, Choo, Darvish... and you're praying Joey Gallo works out and that you can somehow get through the season with Derek Holland and Colby Lewis as prominent players in your rotation.
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Except why on Earth do the Angels want that?  They've only got significant obligations to Trout, Pujols, Hamilton, Street and Simmons for next season, and then only Trout, Pujols and Simmons in 2018.  So even in your break even scenario above - they're good-ish again at the same time if all those guys work out, but without Trout.  Makes no sense.  Especially when you consider that next season is under a new CBA which should mean an increase in the luxury tax threshold should be coming.  

 
dparker713 said:
Except why on Earth do the Angels want that?  They've only got significant obligations to Trout, Pujols, Hamilton, Street and Simmons for next season, and then only Trout, Pujols and Simmons in 2018.  So even in your break even scenario above - they're good-ish again at the same time if all those guys work out, but without Trout.  Makes no sense.  Especially when you consider that next season is under a new CBA which should mean an increase in the luxury tax threshold should be coming.  
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Wow, hard to imagine any team topping a package of Mazara, Brinson, Profar, Tate/Ortiz and Martin Perez. Have to think Braun's price-tag will look pretty attractive to most teams when compared to Trout.

 
dparker713 said:
Except why on Earth do the Angels want that?  They've only got significant obligations to Trout, Pujols, Hamilton, Street and Simmons for next season, and then only Trout, Pujols and Simmons in 2018.  So even in your break even scenario above - they're good-ish again at the same time if all those guys work out, but without Trout.  Makes no sense.  Especially when you consider that next season is under a new CBA which should mean an increase in the luxury tax threshold should be coming.  
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Maybe what they should do is trade Pujols and Trout for Mazara and Perez? Then at least they could have 150mil to spend.

 
jfranco77 said:
Maybe what they should do is trade Pujols and Trout for Mazara and Perez? Then at least they could have 150mil to spend.
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If they want to clear the decks and completely rebuild, sure they could package Pujols with Trout.  Seems like a tough sell to a fanbase though to say you need to strip everything down when you've got one of the best players ever reaching his prime years.  More likely is they ride out this season and then try to not screw up spending the 70 million that comes off the books for next year.

 
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