Which 2016 Rookie RB are one-hit wonders? (1 Viewer)

Follow-up to a comment made a couple of weeks ago about short-term 2016 RB's.  I noticed something in the draft this year - a whole bunch of teams that would have been great situations for a rookie RB to come in ignored the position until day 3 of the draft.  Baltimore, Oakland, Chicago, NYG, and Philly all waited until the 4th round to draft RB.  Seattle took a converted WR in the 3rd (who's now taking WR reps in camp - maybe a Randall Cobb role?) and a pounder in the 5th.  Carolina and Indy have glaring needs for talent/depth/succession planning and drafted none (UDFA maybe?).

Someone (EBF?) commented  a couple of weeks ago something to the effect of "I hope everyone enjoys their 2016 JAG RB's because they are all going to get replace in 2017".  That got me excited.  What RB can we get cheap this year (2nd, 3rd, later) that will spike because they get a chance (think Javoris Allen) and we can sell hot before they get replaced by a 2017 stud.  This happens every year of course, but 2017 seems like a richer year than most because of how top-heavy the draft looks at RB.  12 months ago we were looking at this draft pretty much exactly how it turned out - Zeke, maybe Henry, with an outside chance of Booker, and not much else to get excited about.  Now we have 3 hardcore top 5 RB (rookie) and a host of candidates to bolster that.  That doesn't even count the guys that might come out of nowhere like Dixon or Tevin Coleman.

Paul Perkins is intriguing.  If he gets off to a good start I don't see the Giants drafting a RB early next year.  From what I've read he's being compared to Tiki Barber and someone even compared him to J Charles.

I like Drake in Miami - I think he's got a legitimate shot to beat out Ajayi.  Teams don't draft depth RBs in the 3rd round, so that tells me Miami coaches see something they like.  I also like DeAndre Washington in Oakland, any time your coaches speak publicly about upgrading a position can't be good things for the incumbent.

There really aren't that many great running backs coming out next year.   Sure there are some very good ones,  but they can't get drafted everywhere, and the guys coming out next year are good enough that I don't think many rbs are really safe.  The rookies this year actually have a good chance to entrench themselves imo.

 Going into 2017, Indy, New England,  Kansas City,  the Jets, the Vikings, the Panthers, and the Eagles all have veterans who look close to the end of their careers and really haven't done much to address the situation.  

The Lions, Browns and 49ers seemed to think they were all set at running back, but any one of them would be thrilled to add a stud.

Then there's the bears, redskins, ravens,  giants, raiders, Seahawks, dolphins and broncos who drafted guys later in the draft this year and last that they seem to think will play a significant role. 

Then there's the Texans and jaguars who spent pretty big money this offseason to get relatively mediocre guys. 

The bucs, saints and packers have had ups and downs with their guys.   Wouldn't be totally shocked to see them draft a stud.  

And there's the chargers,  bills and titans who have all invested heavily at the position but who knows how happy they will be by year end.   

That leaves the Bengals,  steelers, rams, Cardinals and cowboys as teams where I'm really confident that they won't draft a stud rb next year. And actually the Bengals have gio up for contract this year and him next,  and the steelers have bell coming up soon too after multiple injuries in his short career.   

So basically the ff community is thinking that Gurley, Elliott, dj and bell owners should enjoy several years of success from their guys and the other 28 teams are all going to draft running backs in the first round next year.   

Maybe a better way to look at it is which rookies could entrench themselves this year with a good season and have am opportunity to do so.   And for that I think the answers are Henry, Dixon,  Perkins, booker,  Howard, and possibly drake,  Washington, marshal,  prosise and Collins.  Of those,  I think Dixon and Perkins have the clearest paths to becoming every down backs, and Henry might have to wait a little while but should get his chance too.

ThreeThousand said:

I like Drake in Miami - I think he's got a legitimate shot to beat out Ajayi.  Teams don't draft depth RBs in the 3rd round, so that tells me Miami coaches see something they like.  I also like DeAndre Washington in Oakland, any time your coaches speak publicly about upgrading a position can't be good things for the incumbent.

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They do draft RBs in the 3rd to be platoon guys or 3rd down backs. Jay is a much more talented back than Drake. If Jay had a clean bill of health, he would have probably been a 2nd round pick last year.

There were 9 running backs that went off the board between pick 119 and pick 171. Just based upon the historical odds, one or two of them should "hit" and go on to have some nice fantasy value. A couple more probably have some temporary value that quickly fizzles. 


119


 Tyler Ervin 


Houston Texans


134  


 Kenneth Dixon 


Baltimore Ravens


136


 Devontae Booker 


Denver Broncos


143   


 DeAndre Washington 


Oakland Raiders


149


 Paul Perkins 


New York Giants


150  


 Jordan Howard 


Chicago Bears


153


 Wendell Smallwood 


Philadelphia Eagles


156   


 Jonathan Williams 


Buffalo Bills


171


 Alex Collins 


Seattle Seahawks



Dixon's going at such a premium already, that I have a tough time paying up for him. But he's probably the most obvious choice to break out.

Perkins, Booker and Howard are also getting a fair amount of hype already. 

I really like Washington due to his pass-catching skills and the surrounding talent in that Oakland offense.

Ervin is flying well under the radar despite being the highest-drafted of the bunch. He could be one Lamar Miller injury away and might not even need an injury if he can fill a Dion Lewis type of role. He's gone undrafted in most of my 3 or 4 round rookie drafts so far. 

Smallwood is another guy who is flying under-the-radar compared to the rest of the guys drafted in this group. He's going into a pretty sweet situation with a clear path to touches. Also worth noting that Philly has given up a lot of future draft capital, so even if they do want to upgrade at RB in 2017 or 2018, they are going to be facing multiple early-round needs and only a few early-round picks. Also going late or undrafted in 3 and 4 round drafts. 

I can see drake beating out Ajayi for the primary job a lot easier than ervin beating out miller.  

Jonathan Williams passing both mccoy and Karlos Williams would take some time,  and then you need to hope he survives into next year as the primary competition.  Maybe if McCoy's off field stuff comes back to haunt him.  

Collins is pretty buried in Seattle.  I think they liked him because he's a physical runner like lynch but he would need some of that coaching juice the Seahawks use to really become an impact player 

The thing that I think gets lost in the idea that these RB are only short term replaceable players is that this applies to ALL RB not just the RB of 2016.

While the 2017 draft class may be better than most years, you are still only talking about three or four (special players?) and the rest will be similar to the RB we are looking at this year, rather than better.

So sure a player or two who has some success this year may get replaced by a better RB in 2017 but this really is not different than any other year. There is always a risk of this happening every year.

For some sense of certainty folks will use draft position as an indication of relative RB talent. However for the past decade we keep seeing RB being drafted later than years before making it much more difficult to use draft position as a guide to which RB are truly better than the others. Not many RB are being drafted in the 1st or even 2nd round of drafts.

So you can be like EBF and just throw up your hands and say it is too hard to differentiate between these lower RB draft picks, but if you do that you will only have a handful of choices of players who were drafted high to choose from.

I don't think that is good enough. I think if you watch football and understand fantasy football you should be able to separate these guys into who has better odds of becoming a starter. That is the first thing they need to accomplish and most of these won't. If you can identify the starters from the COP you will be on your way to identifying a possible long term starter as well. They have to win a starting job first before they have a chance at repeating.

So just working from the list Dan posted above:

I do think Kenneth Dixon could become a starting RB in the NFL and possibly a pretty good one. However he lacks power and does not show great vision running inside. I firmly believe the NFL needs RB who can run inside to outside. If the RB is trying to hit it outside all the time they will fail. You need to be able to run inside to outside and you need to be able to run inside against more than a 5 man box. Dixon does not show me he can do that. It is not his running style. He does most of his damage in the passing game or running outside. Two areas he is very good at. I see Dixon as more likely a COP than a 3 down RB. 

I see DeAndre Washington as similar to Dixon in this regard. Very quick, good agility, good as a receiver but lacking the power element to thrive running between the tackles. I think he is very talented but more likely than not he will be a COP.

Jordan Howard is somewhat the opposite side of the RB spectrum from Dixon and Washington in that he runs hard between the tackles and can move a pile, pretty consistently gaining yardage after contact. This is his playing style that I think is more suited to a specialized short yardage role and not being used much as a receiver. Howard at least has the foundation of running inside and therefore more potential to become a featured RB if he can show some catching ability. I still think it is more likely Howard earns a short yardage specialist role splitting time with Langford who can shown some ability as a receiving RB.

I consider Alex Collins to be more similar to Howard than DIxon or Washington. He is not as powerful as Howard is but he does ok. He has more shiftiness to his game than Howard has and I think a more complete or well rounded player than Howard is. Now some will call well rounded the same as not exceptional at anything. I don't mean it in that way. I mean that Collins can win in a greater variety of ways than I see Howard or Dixon winning, although his ability in these areas of quickness and power are not as high as Dixons quickness or Howards power, he has a nice combination of both skill sets.

Devontae Booker to me is a better version of Alex Collins. He does everything well. He is just as much a good receiver as Dixon and he has some great quickness and burst as well. However Booker runs with power once he makes contact unlike Dixon or Washington. How people can watch him and not see the difference is a mystery to me. I hear Matt Waldman say he can't figure Booker out. That Booker is a enigma to him. I won't say what my opinion of this non opinion is. I think it is pretty obvious that Booker offers the best combination of RB skills in this draft class(aside from Elliot) and to me the most likely of the 2016 4th round RB to become a featured RB and therefore maintain that position once he earns it.

Biabreakable said:

The thing that I think gets lost in the idea that these RB are only short term replaceable players is that this applies to ALL RB not just the RB of 2016.

While the 2017 draft class may be better than most years, you are still only talking about three or four (special players?) and the rest will be similar to the RB we are looking at this year, rather than better.

So sure a player or two who has some success this year may get replaced by a better RB in 2017 but this really is not different than any other year. There is always a risk of this happening every year.

For some sense of certainty folks will use draft position as an indication of relative RB talent. However for the past decade we keep seeing RB being drafted later than years before making it much more difficult to use draft position as a guide to which RB are truly better than the others. Not many RB are being drafted in the 1st or even 2nd round of drafts.

So you can be like EBF and just throw up your hands and say it is too hard to differentiate between these lower RB draft picks, but if you do that you will only have a handful of choices of players who were drafted high to choose from.

I don't think that is good enough. I think if you watch football and understand fantasy football you should be able to separate these guys into who has better odds of becoming a starter. That is the first thing they need to accomplish and most of these won't. If you can identify the starters from the COP you will be on your way to identifying a possible long term starter as well. They have to win a starting job first before they have a chance at repeating.

So just working from the list Dan posted above:

I do think Kenneth Dixon could become a starting RB in the NFL and possibly a pretty good one. However he lacks power and does not show great vision running inside. I firmly believe the NFL needs RB who can run inside to outside. If the RB is trying to hit it outside all the time they will fail. You need to be able to run inside to outside and you need to be able to run inside against more than a 5 man box. Dixon does not show me he can do that. It is not his running style. He does most of his damage in the passing game or running outside. Two areas he is very good at. I see Dixon as more likely a COP than a 3 down RB. 

I see DeAndre Washington as similar to Dixon in this regard. Very quick, good agility, good as a receiver but lacking the power element to thrive running between the tackles. I think he is very talented but more likely than not he will be a COP.

Jordan Howard is somewhat the opposite side of the RB spectrum from Dixon and Washington in that he runs hard between the tackles and can move a pile, pretty consistently gaining yardage after contact. This is his playing style that I think is more suited to a specialized short yardage role and not being used much as a receiver. Howard at least has the foundation of running inside and therefore more potential to become a featured RB if he can show some catching ability. I still think it is more likely Howard earns a short yardage specialist role splitting time with Langford who can shown some ability as a receiving RB.

I consider Alex Collins to be more similar to Howard than DIxon or Washington. He is not as powerful as Howard is but he does ok. He has more shiftiness to his game than Howard has and I think a more complete or well rounded player than Howard is. Now some will call well rounded the same as not exceptional at anything. I don't mean it in that way. I mean that Collins can win in a greater variety of ways than I see Howard or Dixon winning, although his ability in these areas of quickness and power are not as high as Dixons quickness or Howards power, he has a nice combination of both skill sets.

Devontae Booker to me is a better version of Alex Collins. He does everything well. He is just as much a good receiver as Dixon and he has some great quickness and burst as well. However Booker runs with power once he makes contact unlike Dixon or Washington. How people can watch him and not see the difference is a mystery to me. I hear Matt Waldman say he can't figure Booker out. That Booker is a enigma to him. I won't say what my opinion of this non opinion is. I think it is pretty obvious that Booker offers the best combination of RB skills in this draft class(aside from Elliot) and to me the most likely of the 2016 4th round RB to become a featured RB and therefore maintain that position once he earns it.

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I've only skimmed the youtubes; can you provide some video evidence that Booker runs with more power than Dixon? I don't see it, anywhere.

Follow up question: Do you think Devontae Booker is a better RB than CJ Anderson? Not a CJ Anderson owner, but watching Booker highlights makes me want to make a strong bid for the veteran.

Watch any of these games and his power should be obvious.

Yes I think Devontae Booker is a better RB than CJ Anderson. That is not to say that CJ Anderson isn't good. I like him a lot as well. But Booker does everything Anderson does and I think offers a bit more. You listen to Elway and he says what a lot of GMs will say is that they had Booker really high on their board. Dennis Erickson who used to coach in the NFL described Booker as a 2nd round RB prospect. CJ Anderson went undrafted.

I think Howard, Perkins, Booker, and Dixon are being grossly overdrafted. I don't know if there's a real player in that bunch. I see Dixon going top 6-7 in some of my leagues and don't quite agree with it. He's not bad, but in my view he's the definition of average by NFL standards. He's Tashard Choice all over again. A guy who is solid in every way, but lacks any standout traits. He can be serviceable, but the minute they get a real back in there, I see him falling by the wayside. I see him as being basically the same guy as Cameron Artis-Payne (maybe even a little worse), just in a more open situation.

Purely from a talent standpoint, I think Jonathan Williams is the best day 3 back. He has the best feet, hips, and moves and he weighs 220 pounds. He's a one speed runner though (no second gear) and goes to a clogged Buffalo situation where he may never emerge as the guy. Also has some durability/health questions.

Ilov80s said:

They do draft RBs in the 3rd to be platoon guys or 3rd down backs. Jay is a much more talented back than Drake. If Jay had a clean bill of health, he would have probably been a 2nd round pick last year.

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He didn't, he wasn't, and they took Drake with a high 3rd even though they already had him. I wouldn't dismiss that.

I don't think Ajayi is more talented than Drake. He has more power, but very little wiggle. He is a straight-line back and in the NFL that doesn't tend to work out that well. Drake is a more explosive and graceful runner who just has some frame/power issues. I would not be surprised to see him lead the team's RBs in FF points. I think it's wide open for the taking and I'm surprised to see all the reaching for opportunity all-stars like Howard/Perkins/Booker when there's a superior prospect in Drake who landed on a team with no established starter at all. I have Drake as no worse than the #3-4 RB in these rookie drafts. I find it hard to draw a distinction between him and Prosise. Prosise is bigger with better lower body mass. Drake is the more natural and explosive runner. Neither really fits the featured back mold, but both offer special versatility and receiving skills that may compensate for their inability to be 250+ carry guys.

Biabreakable said:

Watch any of these games and his power should be obvious.

Yes I think Devontae Booker is a better RB than CJ Anderson. That is not to say that CJ Anderson isn't good. I like him a lot as well. But Booker does everything Anderson does and I think offers a bit more. You listen to Elway and he says what a lot of GMs will say is that they had Booker really high on their board. Dennis Erickson who used to coach in the NFL described Booker as a 2nd round RB prospect. CJ Anderson went undrafted.

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Seriousy? You provided links to two 2015 games, UMich and Cal. His 22-69 vs UM was unconvincing; his 222 yard effort Cal is not that impressive either, considering the Bears gave up 2727 yards rushing in 2015.

Regarding GM thoughts and actions, Ozzie Newsome had a choice between Dixon and Booker.

EBF said:

 A guy who is solid in every way, but lacks any standout traits. He can be serviceable, but the minute they get a real back in there, I see him falling by the wayside. I see him as being basically the same guy as Cameron Artis-Payne (maybe even a little worse), just in a more open situation.

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Who are the real RB in the NFL right now?

Mister CIA said:

Regarding GM thoughts and actions, Ozzie Newsome had a choice between Dixon and Booker.

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That's an extremely poor way to compare the two.

Here are a couple other threads sort of related to this issue of how to read the NFL draft and estimate the talent level and skill sets of RBs.

Myth?

The RB position is essentially worthless

Biabreakable said:

Who are the real RB in the NFL right now?

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I think RB is like QB in the sense that at any given time there are maybe 10-15 really exceptional players in the league at the position and then a bunch of guys who are just keeping the seat warm. That last group runs pretty deep and there's not much about players like Dixon, Perkins, and Howard to differentiate them from the masses.

I'm a bigger Dixon fan than most but I agree that booker runs with more power.   Dixon didn't face a lot of stacked boxes,  he didn't face a lot of top teams,  and he got a lot of his production on big plays.   Those are all legitimate red or yellow flags.  

Imo, Dixon accelerates better and is a much better receiver.  He has great forward lean and keeps his legs churning after contact.   If anything he fights too hard for yards which is why he had some fumbles and is probably an injury risk at the next level.   When he does run up the middle, he doesn't pick his way through traffic.   He will dance a little and wait for his block, or he will go straight in there at full speed, but he's not a pinball guy.  Booker has more power to fight through those first few yards inside.  

Bookers game translates well to the nfl, but personally I don't see him being a game changer.   He's also a really old rookie, so his physical play cam be expected since he was literally a man amongst boys.  If he wins the starting job this year,  he could be an awesome value, but if he's not getting clear number one carries you'll have a hard time getting big exit value for him.   The Denver backfield has a reputation.  

On the wrong team,  Dixon could have lost a lot of value in an expected time share.   I'd hate to have seen him in San Francisco or the saints.   But Baltimore has an open job (Buck Allen owners will be quick to note that it's a competition) and he has a chance to be the feature back.  Trestman loves throwing to backs,  and Dixon is an unusually good receiver out of the backfield.   He turns naturally and catches the ball in stride like a wide receiver, and he has excellent body control.  That will get him playing time early.   He's also a plus outside runner and capable between the tackles runner who finishes strong,  which is important when Flacco is threatening to throw deep and keeping the safeties back.   He's a better version of the guys they already have and he should challenge for playing time early.  And he's 21.  

That all makes him significantly more valuable than booker to me,  although I absolutely agree that booker could end up being the better player in the long run. 

I agree with you that Dixon is a bit quicker and perhaps better long speed to finish than Booker has Fred.

I don't agree that Dixon is a better receiver as Booker is very good in that area as well.

I have Booker at 6th and Dixon at 9th so obviously I don't think there is a huge difference between them. I just like Booker more.

Predraft, I had them as the third and fourth guys with Dixon ahead and would have taken both once Elliott, Henry and the big 3 receivers were off the board.   Everything Elway touches is turning to gold these days but I like Dixon's situation better by enough that I still would and did take him once the big 3 receivers were off the board,  but wouldn't take booker until after Perkins and a couple non running backs were off the board.  

I think by December, Perkins will be the biggest winner of the bunch and I'll be the first to say I would have never thought that a few months ago. 

But as I start to dig deeper and watch more, I don't see many RBs out there that have the foot control and change ability he has. He is so lightning quick in his re-establishing of his center of gravity. That is something you simply can't teach and his angle that he shifts on reminds me a lot of Ryan Matthews and Jahvid Best. 

I think these are things the Giants clearly have him fitted into when they think of his role with the team, especially when I look at the guys that were available to them, yet they passed (Collins, Williams, Howard).  All the other RBs available were what we usually think of as something the Giants would want and need. These guys are all guys that could chew clock and run a game out but despite having an old Jennings and a pass-catching Vareen, they went with Perkins and I think McAdoo has a clear role in mind where Eli is getting that ball out quick, OBJ and Shepherd are doing their thing, and the screen game and runs off tackle are going to be used a lot.

I'll say I'm drinking Kool-Aid on this one and that is rare for me but without writing a book, I'm just going to put this guy out there as the guy I'm swinging for the fences on  if I were drafting him. I think if he weighed 15 more pounds, he would probably be talked up as right there with Elliot (I know, blasphemy to the church of Zeke...sorry...but I think he's got that "something" that is going to work very well in the NFL). 

I suppose I should get around to watching more of Perkins. Lots of folks seem to like him.

Mister CIA said:

Seriousy? You provided links to two 2015 games, UMich and Cal. His 22-69 vs UM was unconvincing; his 222 yard effort Cal is not that impressive either, considering the Bears gave up 2727 yards rushing in 2015.

Regarding GM thoughts and actions, Ozzie Newsome had a choice between Dixon and Booker.

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Maybe you're having trouble seeing his power because you are looking at stat lines. Just a thought...

EBF said:

I think Howard, Perkins, Booker, and Dixon are being grossly overdrafted. I don't know if there's a real player in that bunch. I see Dixon going top 6-7 in some of my leagues and don't quite agree with it. He's not bad, but in my view he's the definition of average by NFL standards. He's Tashard Choice all over again. A guy who is solid in every way, but lacks any standout traits. He can be serviceable, but the minute they get a real back in there, I see him falling by the wayside. I see him as being basically the same guy as Cameron Artis-Payne (maybe even a little worse), just in a more open situation.

Purely from a talent standpoint, I think Jonathan Williams is the best day 3 back. He has the best feet, hips, and moves and he weighs 220 pounds. He's a one speed runner though (no second gear) and goes to a clogged Buffalo situation where he may never emerge as the guy. Also has some durability/health questions.

He didn't, he wasn't, and they took Drake with a high 3rd even though they already had him. I wouldn't dismiss that.

I don't think Ajayi is more talented than Drake. He has more power, but very little wiggle. He is a straight-line back and in the NFL that doesn't tend to work out that well. Drake is a more explosive and graceful runner who just has some frame/power issues. I would not be surprised to see him lead the team's RBs in FF points. I think it's wide open for the taking and I'm surprised to see all the reaching for opportunity all-stars like Howard/Perkins/Booker when there's a superior prospect in Drake who landed on a team with no established starter at all. I have Drake as no worse than the #3-4 RB in these rookie drafts. I find it hard to draw a distinction between him and Prosise. Prosise is bigger with better lower body mass. Drake is the more natural and explosive runner. Neither really fits the featured back mold, but both offer special versatility and receiving skills that may compensate for their inability to be 250+ carry guys.

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Don't forget it's a new regime in Miami with Gase in town, and they don't owe Ajayi anything.  This is why I targeted Drake.  Ajayi and Drake will compete for the job this year IMHO.

JohnnyU said:

Paul Perkins is intriguing.  If he gets off to a good start I don't see the Giants drafting a RB early next year.  From what I've read he's being compared to Tiki Barber and someone even compared him to J Charles.

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I'm high on Perkins but J Charles is much faster. This isn't really a knock on Perkins since Charles is that dang fast. 

Collins to me is the clearly the one. He was the #3 RB on average before the combine. 

Michael obviously left and came back so I can't see him being thought of as the #1. Rawls might have a quiet year because of injury. Prosise might need a of polish and limited reps to but could be vastly improved for next year. Collins is a good runner and I think would be effective for the Seahawks, assuming Rawls needs time to heal properly and Prosise needs a bit of time to develop. 

He could burst on the FF scene then be buried by the started of the 2017 season. 

Edit: If we are basing it off of next years rookies taking their job, Dixon. Baltimore has age and injury concerns on both sides of the ball and they play in a very tough division. So there's a chance they will be in the range to take one of the big name RBs next year. And the rumours are that the 2017 guys are special players. Dixon is not. 

I think we need to start with determining 2 issues.  

1) Who can pass protect at the NFL level?  This will assure him snaps earlier than those who need to learn the skill.

2)  Who can catch passes and be in on 3rd downs. 

These are related but ultimately two separate issues.  I actually think the first issue is more important. 

I've never understood the "the team doesn't owe him anything" perspective. 

They owe him money. He has experience that a guy who hasn't played a down in the league doesn't.  If Drake or a guy was coming in and the talent gaps was obvious that would be one thing but in this case, the talent is just different. I don't think that is enough to displace Ajayi.

I inherited a dynasty team last year with OBJ and Freeman on it.  They weren't technically "my guys" either but when I needed to win games, they were "my guys". 

I don't think new=push all that is before out the door unless the new is an obvious upgrade.  In this case, it isn't.  Ajayi was easily the 3rd best back in the draft last year and without debating it to even say he was perhaps more, the issue was nothing more than teams being scared.  Well, that only comes into play when/if he starts showing signs of injury (just like all other players).  The Dolphins once passed on Drew Brees because of being scared about an injury. We are still waiting for that decision to be justified. 

Shutout said:

I don't think new=push all that is before out the door unless the new is an obvious upgrade.  In this case, it isn't.  Ajayi was easily the 3rd best back in the draft last year and without debating it to even say he was perhaps more, the issue was nothing more than teams being scared.  

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That's pure conjecture. There's no way to really prove who was the "3rd best back in the draft", but I don't see a great case for Ajayi as the consensus pick there. NFL.com had him as the #7 RB in his class. CBS Draft/Draft Scout had him at #6. I'm receptive to the idea that he could've gone higher than where he actually did without durability/health questions, but that's all hypothetical. He ended up going as RB14 in a round of the draft (5th) that has a long-term player success rate of maybe ~5%. In short, Jay Ajayi is not the type of guy who should scare you off a highly-drafted rookie.

Kenyan Drake isn't Gurley/Elliott, but he was picked 76 slots higher in his draft than Ajayi, in a round (3rd) that has a much higher long-term success rate (probably around 25-30%). To say he isn't an obvious upgrade over Ajayi is questionable at this point. We don't really know for sure yet, but the most important objective variable (draft slot) would favor Drake pretty strongly. Ajayi could have been the 3rd back taken in his class in your opinion, but Drake actually was the 3rd back taken in his class.

In my subjective opinion, Ajayi brings more size and power. Drake is much more elusive and explosive. I think both guys will get a shot. I have no bold predictions as to how it play out, but I certainly see it as a wide open situation. No less so than the Denver/Chicago/Baltimore/NYG backfields that are pushing people to reach for day three prospects like Booker, Howard, Dixon, and Perkins. I have Drake rated higher than all of those guys. 

EBF said:

I think Howard, Perkins, Booker, and Dixon are being grossly overdrafted. I don't know if there's a real player in that bunch. I see Dixon going top 6-7 in some of my leagues and don't quite agree with it. He's not bad, but in my view he's the definition of average by NFL standards. He's Tashard Choice all over again. A guy who is solid in every way, but lacks any standout traits. He can be serviceable, but the minute they get a real back in there, I see him falling by the wayside. I see him as being basically the same guy as Cameron Artis-Payne (maybe even a little worse), just in a more open situation.

Purely from a talent standpoint, I think Jonathan Williams is the best day 3 back. He has the best feet, hips, and moves and he weighs 220 pounds. He's a one speed runner though (no second gear) and goes to a clogged Buffalo situation where he may never emerge as the guy. Also has some durability/health questions.

He didn't, he wasn't, and they took Drake with a high 3rd even though they already had him. I wouldn't dismiss that.

I don't think Ajayi is more talented than Drake. He has more power, but very little wiggle. He is a straight-line back and in the NFL that doesn't tend to work out that well. Drake is a more explosive and graceful runner who just has some frame/power issues. I would not be surprised to see him lead the team's RBs in FF points. I think it's wide open for the taking and I'm surprised to see all the reaching for opportunity all-stars like Howard/Perkins/Booker when there's a superior prospect in Drake who landed on a team with no established starter at all. I have Drake as no worse than the #3-4 RB in these rookie drafts. I find it hard to draw a distinction between him and Prosise. Prosise is bigger with better lower body mass. Drake is the more natural and explosive runner. Neither really fits the featured back mold, but both offer special versatility and receiving skills that may compensate for their inability to be 250+ carry guys.




 

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I'm pretty big on draft position, so I find Drake intriguing. The one thing that holds me back though is that he is a really good special teamer who could be an impact player in multiple facets of ST (both as a returner and gunner). I don't have much doubt that his ST ability contributed heavily to his draft spot. Did it boost him by one round, two rounds? Impossible to say for sure. But my gut feeling is that if he wasn't so good on ST, he would have been a late-4th, early-5th on his RB skills alone, just like the other guys we were discussing above. 

I think he's an especially intriguing guy in leagues that give points for return yards. In other leagues, for me he's right there in that mishmash of 4th/5th round guys that are tough to figure. 

Washington is being overlooked for the most part in rookie drafts, going late 2nd early 3rd in the ones I've been involved in. I think he could legitimately push Murray for the job. 

I always liked him at Texas Tech, but my hunch is that he's just a third down back in the NFL. 

bostonfred said:

Maybe a better way to look at it is which rookies could entrench themselves this year with a good season and have am opportunity to do so.   And for that I think the answers are Henry, Dixon,  Perkins, booker,  Howard, and possibly drake,  Washington, marshal,  prosise and Collins.  Of those,  I think Dixon and Perkins have the clearest paths to becoming every down backs, and Henry might have to wait a little while but should get his chance too.

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The popular opinion was this was a weak draft class and now we have ten rookie backs with a chance to entrench themselves as a starter and that doesn't count Zeke. Not that I disagree these guys "have a chance", but I think the ceiling in most cases is a member of a watered down committee.

Dan Hindery said:

I'm pretty big on draft position, so I find Drake intriguing. The one thing that holds me back though is that he is a really good special teamer who could be an impact player in multiple facets of ST (both as a returner and gunner). I don't have much doubt that his ST ability contributed heavily to his draft spot. Did it boost him by one round, two rounds? Impossible to say for sure. But my gut feeling is that if he wasn't so good on ST, he would have been a late-4th, early-5th on his RB skills alone, just like the other guys we were discussing above. 

I think he's an especially intriguing guy in leagues that give points for return yards. In other leagues, for me he's right there in that mishmash of 4th/5th round guys that are tough to figure. 

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The Dolphins took Ted Ginn at 1.09.  Just saying...

bostonfred said:

There really aren't that many great running backs coming out next year.   Sure there are some very good ones,  but they can't get drafted everywhere, and the guys coming out next year are good enough that I don't think many rbs are really safe.  The rookies this year actually have a good chance to entrench themselves imo.

 Going into 2017, Indy, New England,  Kansas City,  the Jets, the Vikings, the Panthers, and the Eagles all have veterans who look close to the end of their careers and really haven't done much to address the situation.  

The Lions, Browns and 49ers seemed to think they were all set at running back, but any one of them would be thrilled to add a stud.

Then there's the bears, redskins, ravens,  giants, raiders, Seahawks, dolphins and broncos who drafted guys later in the draft this year and last that they seem to think will play a significant role. 

Then there's the Texans and jaguars who spent pretty big money this offseason to get relatively mediocre guys. 

The bucs, saints and packers have had ups and downs with their guys.   Wouldn't be totally shocked to see them draft a stud.  

And there's the chargers,  bills and titans who have all invested heavily at the position but who knows how happy they will be by year end.   

That leaves the Bengals,  steelers, rams, Cardinals and cowboys as teams where I'm really confident that they won't draft a stud rb next year. And actually the Bengals have gio up for contract this year and him next,  and the steelers have bell coming up soon too after multiple injuries in his short career.   

So basically the ff community is thinking that Gurley, Elliott, dj and bell owners should enjoy several years of success from their guys and the other 28 teams are all going to draft running backs in the first round next year.   

Maybe a better way to look at it is which rookies could entrench themselves this year with a good season and have am opportunity to do so.   And for that I think the answers are Henry, Dixon,  Perkins, booker,  Howard, and possibly drake,  Washington, marshal,  prosise and Collins.  Of those,  I think Dixon and Perkins have the clearest paths to becoming every down backs, and Henry might have to wait a little while but should get his chance too.

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McKinnon in Minnesota would appear to be the heir apparent to Peterson.  Dion Lewis is only like 25.  KC has a whole bunch of backs.  Eagles have Matthews, at the ripe old age of 28.   I'm thinking maybe the reason those teams haven't done much to address their geriatric backs is because they don't see it that way.  Now, a year makes a big difference, and the wall is called the wall for a reason.  But I think you are overstating the age issues with those teams.  

The guys this season remind me of Zac Stacy.  Placeholder types who will always be in danger of a stud just overtaking them.  

Sabertooth said:

The guys this season remind me of Zac Stacy.  Placeholder types who will always be in danger of a stud just overtaking them.  

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I agree.   But who are the guys that aren't in danger of having a stud rb taken ahead of them in 2017?  I literally named almost the entire league and you disagreed with four teams.   Let's assume there's 12 teams that "need" a running back next year during the awesome class of '17.  They can't all draft stud running backs next year.  There just aren't that many coming out.

And while you might think Ryan Mathews is safe, how good do you have to be to be considered safe?  The guy who replaced Zac Stacy was tre mason, and mason had a pretty good year before he got replaced by Gurley.  The titans needed a running back, traded for a former rushing champ on a ludicrous contract, and then drafted the Heisman winner and consensus number two back in the draft.  Are you telling me that McKinnon, Spencer ware and Charcandrick west are too good for the Vikings or Chiefs to take fournette?   I don't see that at all.   

bostonfred said:

I agree.   But who are the guys that aren't in danger of having a stud rb taken ahead of them in 2017?  I literally named almost the entire league and you disagreed with four teams.   Let's assume there's 12 teams that "need" a running back next year during the awesome class of '17.  They can't all draft stud running backs next year.  There just aren't that many coming out.

And while you might think Ryan Mathews is safe, how good do you have to be to be considered safe?  The guy who replaced Zac Stacy was tre mason, and mason had a pretty good year before he got replaced by Gurley.  The titans needed a running back, traded for a former rushing champ on a ludicrous contract, and then drafted the Heisman winner and consensus number two back in the draft.  Are you telling me that McKinnon, Spencer ware and Charcandrick west are too good for the Vikings or Chiefs to take fournette?   I don't see that at all.   

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I think the bold is the key point. The number of starting RBs whose jobs (outside of injury) are most likely firmly entrenched beyond this year are few and far between:

To me, that's only Bell, Elliott, Gurley and maybe Gordon (draft position will keep him around), Ingram and McCoy. The studs Peterson and Charles aren't quite in this mix due to age, with their replacements probably around the corner.

So the bottom line is that just about everyone else is ultimately replaceable if they don't produce at a high level this year.

We've seen it for years now - the RB position is very fungible and very few guys have a long-term stranglehold on the position.

Sabertooth said:

McKinnon in Minnesota would appear to be the heir apparent to Peterson.  Dion Lewis is only like 25.  KC has a whole bunch of backs.  Eagles have Matthews, at the ripe old age of 28.   I'm thinking maybe the reason those teams haven't done much to address their geriatric backs is because they don't see it that way.  Now, a year makes a big difference, and the wall is called the wall for a reason.  But I think you are overstating the age issues with those teams.  

The guys this season remind me of Zac Stacy.  Placeholder types who will always be in danger of a stud just overtaking them.  

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This is the entire point I was hoping this thread would talk about.

foxco said:

Washington is being overlooked for the most part in rookie drafts, going late 2nd early 3rd in the ones I've been involved in. I think he could legitimately push Murray for the job. 

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I agree. The competition there is so weak that he will certainly get a chance, which is half the battle for a young back taken late in the draft.  And while he is smallish, he has just enough size to be an everydown back. He does have great feet and agility and keeps his legs moving in the hole; reminds me a bit of a Ahmad Bradshaw.

EBF is probably right--that Washington will be more of a COP back--but given the dearth of talent in Oakland's backfield he has a chance to carve out a bigger role for at least part of his rookie season.  I was impressed by the tape I watched of him as he looked much better than what I expect from a fifth round pick.

Shutout said:

I've never understood the "the team doesn't owe him anything" perspective. 

They owe him money. He has experience that a guy who hasn't played a down in the league doesn't.  If Drake or a guy was coming in and the talent gaps was obvious that would be one thing but in this case, the talent is just different. I don't think that is enough to displace Ajayi.

I inherited a dynasty team last year with OBJ and Freeman on it.  They weren't technically "my guys" either but when I needed to win games, they were "my guys". 

I don't think new=push all that is before out the door unless the new is an obvious upgrade.  In this case, it isn't.  Ajayi was easily the 3rd best back in the draft last year and without debating it to even say he was perhaps more, the issue was nothing more than teams being scared.  Well, that only comes into play when/if he starts showing signs of injury (just like all other players).  The Dolphins once passed on Drew Brees because of being scared about an injury. We are still waiting for that decision to be justified. 

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By owing him something, I'm saying that coach didn't draft him.  He didn't hand pick him for HIS system, he is a player he inherited.  You can say Ajayi was the 3rd best back, but I would disagree.  I would have put Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon, Abdullah, Coleman, and Langford ahead of him last year.  The injury concern only strengthens my opinion in my eyes.  He had the injury and whether it's bone on bone, or improperly repaired surgically, or perfectly fine,  you or I cannot be sure.  I do know that the Bears were in the market for a running back last year and Gase was in the war room.  The Bears decided to take Langford a full round ahead of Ajayi.  Is this because Gase was worried about the knee? Or was it because he liked Langford better?  I think as the OC in Chicago he had some pretty important input regarding the players they picked on the offensive side of the ball.  I am reading between the lines here.  Maybe they took Drake in the 3rd round because he's great on ST.  I doubt that, but maybe.  I see it as a prime spot for a guy like Drake to overtake a "starter" who has really not earned anything.  He's the "starter" because there wasn't anyone else.  Now Drake is there only time will tell who gets the touches.

RE: your fantasy team, I think this is pretty poor rationale.  Were you going to lose your team if you played with those guys and didn't win?  Of course not.  There is no "system" for ANY guys to be "your guys".  Your livelihood/job did not depend on those players performance.  

Drew Brees just had a surgery that was supposed to fix a possible career ending injury.  I think the risk of giving him a 10-12 million dollars is much larger than drafting a 5th round running back who was guaranteed pennies compared to the contract Brees was looking for.  

Ajayi averaged 3.8 YPC last year. That isn't exactly Earth shattering.  I never said new = push all this is out the door unless the new is an obvious upgrade.  I would say that Ajayi did NOT cement himself as a starter last year.  He had some nice runs, but Gase sees something in Drake enough to draft him so high.  The opportunity is there for him to snatch the job away from Ajayi,  and opportunity is a huge factor to help NFL players succeed.

ETA: Didn't the fish just offer a big contract for CJ Anderson?  I don't think that is a great sign for their belief in Ajayi either.  The opportunity for Drake is there, you can't deny it.

pyite76 said:

By owing him something, I'm saying that coach didn't draft him.  He didn't hand pick him for HIS system, he is a player he inherited.  You can say Ajayi was the 3rd best back, but I would disagree.  I would have put Gurley, Gordon, Yeldon, Abdullah, Coleman, and Langford ahead of him last year.  The injury concern only strengthens my opinion in my eyes.  He had the injury and whether it's bone on bone, or improperly repaired surgically, or perfectly fine,  you or I cannot be sure.  I do know that the Bears were in the market for a running back last year and Gase was in the war room.  The Bears decided to take Langford a full round ahead of Ajayi.  Is this because Gase was worried about the knee? Or was it because he liked Langford better?  I think as the OC in Chicago he had some pretty important input regarding the players they picked on the offensive side of the ball.  I am reading between the lines here.  Maybe they took Drake in the 3rd round because he's great on ST.  I doubt that, but maybe.  I see it as a prime spot for a guy like Drake to overtake a "starter" who has really not earned anything.  He's the "starter" because there wasn't anyone else.  Now Drake is there only time will tell who gets the touches.

RE: your fantasy team, I think this is pretty poor rationale.  Were you going to lose your team if you played with those guys and didn't win?  Of course not.  There is no "system" for ANY guys to be "your guys".  Your livelihood/job did not depend on those players performance.  

Drew Brees just had a surgery that was supposed to fix a possible career ending injury.  I think the risk of giving him a 10-12 million dollars is much larger than drafting a 5th round running back who was guaranteed pennies compared to the contract Brees was looking for.  

Ajayi averaged 3.8 YPC last year. That isn't exactly Earth shattering.  I never said new = push all this is out the door unless the new is an obvious upgrade.  I would say that Ajayi did NOT cement himself as a starter last year.  He had some nice runs, but Gase sees something in Drake enough to draft him so high.  The opportunity is there for him to snatch the job away from Ajayi,  and opportunity is a huge factor to help NFL players succeed.

ETA: Didn't the fish just offer a big contract for CJ Anderson?  I don't think that is a great sign for their belief in Ajayi either.  The opportunity for Drake is there, you can't deny it.

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We clearly have different perspectives and that's perfectly fine so my responses aren't to fan flames, just to offer another side to chew on for people to decide (you could be 100% correct, I could be, somewhere in the middle...just putting more info on the table for people).

In regards to Gase being in the Chicago war room, that's a good point you bring out that he was there but it may also be coincidental. The way coaches recycle all around the league, there are lots of guys that can say "I was there when we passed on "x".  Of course I don't know THE answer but from what I've read I'm not sure Gase had decision making power in that type of choice.  But it's a good point to consider either way. 

The risk with Brees was larger for sure but I think everyone knows in the NFL, the difference between contending and being an also-ran is a franchise QB and teams have consistently demonstrated over and over and over again that they are willing to swing for the fences on a QB more than anything. But my only point in that statement is "sometimes the docs get it wrong" and was really to say until Ajayi shows he is breaking down, I assume he is not.

I think the Dolphins have certainly kicked a lot of rocks at RB but then they turned around and lay a lot to build up Ajayi. So that seems contradictory but my overall view of Drake is that he is more complimentary than "the guy".  He seems to run around with his legs flaying out all over the place like a wild chicken.  I certainly see the dynamic element, but I think Gase seems more like a control guy. SO I think it's Ajayi if he's healthy. I just do. 

All in all, the Dolphins are a hard egg to crack because I don't understand their defensive FA signings last year and I don't see a lot of this year. I don't know if Carroo was a great selection giving other needs but I defer to BPA on that one. If they thought the value is there, then you just do it. 

In the big picture, my comments on this are mostly just to say "Let's not assume because a guy wasn't hand-selected by him that he's still not good enough to fit and fit well". In many cases in professional sports, I believe the best coaches are the ones that understand their resources best.

bostonfred said:

I agree.   But who are the guys that aren't in danger of having a stud rb taken ahead of them in 2017?  I literally named almost the entire league and you disagreed with four teams.   Let's assume there's 12 teams that "need" a running back next year during the awesome class of '17.  They can't all draft stud running backs next year.  There just aren't that many coming out.

And while you might think Ryan Mathews is safe, how good do you have to be to be considered safe?  The guy who replaced Zac Stacy was tre mason, and mason had a pretty good year before he got replaced by Gurley.  The titans needed a running back, traded for a former rushing champ on a ludicrous contract, and then drafted the Heisman winner and consensus number two back in the draft.  Are you telling me that McKinnon, Spencer ware and Charcandrick west are too good for the Vikings or Chiefs to take fournette?   I don't see that at all.   

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Nobody is safe I guess.  But there are varying degrees of vulnerability.  

To you first question off the top of my head I'd say Bell, Lacy, Peterson, Gio and Hill, Miller, David Johnson, Zeke, Freeman, Yeldon, Abdullah, CJ Anderson are all pretty safe.  

Shutout said:

We clearly have different perspectives and that's perfectly fine so my responses aren't to fan flames, just to offer another side to chew on for people to decide (you could be 100% correct, I could be, somewhere in the middle...just putting more info on the table for people).

In regards to Gase being in the Chicago war room, that's a good point you bring out that he was there but it may also be coincidental. The way coaches recycle all around the league, there are lots of guys that can say "I was there when we passed on "x".  Of course I don't know THE answer but from what I've read I'm not sure Gase had decision making power in that type of choice.  But it's a good point to consider either way. 

The risk with Brees was larger for sure but I think everyone knows in the NFL, the difference between contending and being an also-ran is a franchise QB and teams have consistently demonstrated over and over and over again that they are willing to swing for the fences on a QB more than anything. But my only point in that statement is "sometimes the docs get it wrong" and was really to say until Ajayi shows he is breaking down, I assume he is not.

I think the Dolphins have certainly kicked a lot of rocks at RB but then they turned around and lay a lot to build up Ajayi. So that seems contradictory but my overall view of Drake is that he is more complimentary than "the guy".  He seems to run around with his legs flaying out all over the place like a wild chicken.  I certainly see the dynamic element, but I think Gase seems more like a control guy. SO I think it's Ajayi if he's healthy. I just do. 

All in all, the Dolphins are a hard egg to crack because I don't understand their defensive FA signings last year and I don't see a lot of this year. I don't know if Carroo was a great selection giving other needs but I defer to BPA on that one. If they thought the value is there, then you just do it. 

In the big picture, my comments on this are mostly just to say "Let's not assume because a guy wasn't hand-selected by him that he's still not good enough to fit and fit well". In many cases in professional sports, I believe the best coaches are the ones that understand their resources best.

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Great response and I tend to agree with much of what you said.  I definitely think you are higher on Ajayi than I am, but that's really a moot point.  You clarified your point well, and I would agree.  I think the opportunity is there, and even though it is a small sample size, Drake has some nice things down on film. When I am in the 3rd round of a rookie draft, I can't think of many better fliers to take a chance on.  I would agree, sometimes the doctors get it wrong.  See my Marcus Lattimore posts from a few years ago. I was listening to the wrong doctors then.  I also drafted Jaylon Smith in the 2nd round this year.  I never learn.

Sabertooth said:

McKinnon in Minnesota would appear to be the heir apparent to Peterson.  Dion Lewis is only like 25.  KC has a whole bunch of backs.  Eagles have Matthews, at the ripe old age of 28.   I'm thinking maybe the reason those teams haven't done much to address their geriatric backs is because they don't see it that way.  Now, a year makes a big difference, and the wall is called the wall for a reason.  But I think you are overstating the age issues with those teams.  

The guys this season remind me of Zac Stacy.  Placeholder types who will always be in danger of a stud just overtaking them.  

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Dion Lewis will be 27 years old in September. This will be his 6th season in the league and I don't think he has managed to stay healthy for a full season yet. RB usually have the best years of their careers during their first six seasons.

Who isn't a placeholder type RB currently in the NFL? Is Eddie Lacy a long term answer?

Sabertooth said:

Nobody is safe I guess.  But there are varying degrees of vulnerability.  

To you first question off the top of my head I'd say Bell, Lacy, Peterson, Gio and Hill, Miller, David Johnson, Zeke, Freeman, Yeldon, Abdullah, CJ Anderson are all pretty safe.  

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Lacy was losing his job to Starks last season. He needs to play better this year or they will replace him.

Peterson is 31 years old and may not be with the team in 2017. If he does move on through trade he is likely taking whichever RB had a job on the team he goes to.

Gio and Hill are already in a time share.

Lamar Miller seemed to always be on a snap count that limited his opportunity in Miami. He has a much better chance of getting more opportunity with the Texans.

David Johnson the HC has said that Johnson will be the man. He basically said the same thing about Ellington just a couple years ago.

Eze

Freeman was second string to Coleman before Coleman got injured.

Yeldon is likely losing carries to Ivory. Even without Ivory he was ceding goal line work to Toby Gerhardt.

Abdullah fumbled his way out of a job. 

CJ Anderson had turf toe and had fewer carries than Ronnie Hillman last year. Anderson has NEVER had more than 200 rushing attempts in a season. College or Pro.

These are the guys who are safe?

Sabertooth said:

Nobody is safe I guess.  But there are varying degrees of vulnerability.  

To you first question off the top of my head I'd say Bell, Lacy, Peterson, Gio and Hill, Miller, David Johnson, Zeke, Freeman, Yeldon, Abdullah, CJ Anderson are all pretty safe.  

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I'd say all those guys are safe for this year, but as per my earlier post I'd say of that list only Bell and Zeke are safe for 2017 and beyond. Among the other guys, IMO if their game falls off noticeably, they run the risk being replaced.

Biabreakable said:

Dion Lewis will be 27 years old in September. This will be his 6th season in the league and I don't think he has managed to stay healthy for a full season yet. RB usually have the best years of their careers during their first six seasons.

Who isn't a placeholder type RB currently in the NFL? Is Eddie Lacy a long term answer?

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Long term for running backs is what 3 years?  

Guessing what teams are going to do in next years draft is pointless.  We don't even know which teams will have which coaches and assistants. 

Nobody saw Freeman coming.  Everyone was sure Hill was going to be a stud just one year ago.  It changes to fast to project that far out.  

Drake is going to compete for third down duty and special teams. COP back. They want Ajayi to win the job. Also they still like Damien Williams a lot.

It's a three headed monster in Miami. They have no clear cut stud. They let him walk (and did not give him enough work to begin with).

Sabertooth said:

Long term for running backs is what 3 years?  

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It does change fast. 3 years as a starter is more than a lot of RB get. With injuries in there as well a RB might get 5 or six years as a starter, but they will likely have at least a few unproductive years during that time frame as well.

There is tons of turnover at this position every year.

Shutout said:

I think the Dolphins have certainly kicked a lot of rocks at RB but then they turned around and lay a lot to build up Ajayi. So that seems contradictory but my overall view of Drake is that he is more complimentary than "the guy".  He seems to run around with his legs flaying out all over the place like a wild chicken.  I certainly see the dynamic element, but I think Gase seems more like a control guy. SO I think it's Ajayi if he's healthy. I just do. 

All in all, the Dolphins are a hard egg to crack because I don't understand their defensive FA signings last year and I don't see a lot of this year. I don't know if Carroo was a great selection giving other needs but I defer to BPA on that one. If they thought the value is there, then you just do it. 

In the big picture, my comments on this are mostly just to say "Let's not assume because a guy wasn't hand-selected by him that he's still not good enough to fit and fit well". In many cases in professional sports, I believe the best coaches are the ones that understand their resources best.

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Honestly, your earlier posts in this thread (not so much this one) made me think you had an irrational emotional attachment to Ajayi, and sure enough this is a guy you've been high on for a long time. Back in early April of last year you were calling him the steal of the draft:

Shutout said:

S.O.D. (fantasy). This guy almost certainly won't go higher than 7-8 on average in FF drafts and has every shot in the world of being the long-term top 2-3 of the bunch.

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It's fine to have opinions on players. That's why we're here. However, it makes it a lot harder for me to take your comments about Drake and Ajayi seriously since it seems like you've been slanted towards Ajayi all along. I had no stake in this RB corps until a couple days ago and I personally think it's pretty open. Ajayi wasn't a very high pick and didn't really show me much in his rookie highlights. I don't think Drake is a great prospect either. He has warts and seems strictly second tier, but his highlights impress me more and he's the highest pick in this backfield and the only guy selected by the current staff.