mambomambo
Footballguy
Any reason why Randle is not in the rankings? DO you guys think he wont even make the roster? I was under the impression he would likely be #2 in PHI...
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WR Rueben Randle - Missing from Staff Rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter mambomambo
- Start date
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Huff is a waste of space. He might make the 53-man but if he does, it'll be owing to his returner chops and not his WR acumen.
If you think Agholor is overhyped and that Pederson will carry forward the key elements of Fat Andy's offense to Philly, then Randle has the possibility of delivering obscene value this season at his price point. I happen to believe both, so I'm buying Randle with both hands. But reasonable minds may differ on either point.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
He couldn't put up numbers when it was just him and OBJ and really no other passing options, why would he be able to do something when he will be the 4th or 5th options?
tone1oc
Footballguy
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Trivia question: which WR put up the most points last season in PPR formats?
a) Marvin Jones
b) Michael Floyd
c) FBG darling Stefon Diggs
d) Rueben "no numbers" Randle
I mean, his season numbers (WR33 overall) won't be confused with Antonio Brown, but then again AB didn't go WR59 on average in the most recent FBG survivor leagues. It's really not out of the realm of possibility that a team whose "second-best" WR option has 283 career receiving yards could somehow make Randle fantasy-relevant ... again.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Are you fishing or do you cherry pick all your stats.
Let's unpack this a little
Floyd - played in a great offense with 2 other very good pass catchers and a good running game and he missed a game.
Marvin Jones played with a great defense and was the 3rd or 4th option in the passing game.
Stefan Diggs -played in a run heavy offense, missed the first 3 games, and was a rookie.
Randle - played on a horrible team that was always passing to catch up. The only other pass catching threats were Beckham and sometimes Vereen, and they had a horrible running game.
The answer to your question is Floyd
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Now who's fishing?msudaisy26 said:
Randle finished WR33 last year to Floyd's WR38 in default PPR scoring formats. In most leagues of any size and depth, that was a starting-caliber WR. He's exactly the kind of name savvy owners fished off the waiver wire in the back half of the season and potentially rode his 65 points over the last 4 weeks of the season to a title at literally zero cost.
I think he has a chance to put up fairly similar numbers in the Eagles' new (presumably West Coast-based) offense, because I don't believe in Huff and Agholor has yet to show anyone much of anything. And he's going as the 59th WR off the board! That's not literally zero cost, but it's Kamar Aiken, Chris Hogan, Terrence Williams territory. Do I think he's going to have some sort of monster breakout year? No. But I don't have to in order to prefer him at that level ahead of JAGs like those.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
No, maybe if you count week 17, which why would you? Last years stats through week 16Now who's fishing?
Randle finished WR33 last year to Floyd's WR38 in default PPR scoring formats. In most leagues of any size and depth, that was a starting-caliber WR. He's exactly the kind of name savvy owners fished off the waiver wire in the back half of the season and potentially rode his 65 points over the last 4 weeks of the season to a title at literally zero cost.
I think he has a chance to put up fairly similar numbers in the Eagles' new (presumably West Coast-based) offense, because I don't believe in Huff and Agholor has yet to show anyone much of anything. And he's going as the 59th WR off the board! That's not literally zero cost, but it's Kamar Aiken, Chris Hogan, Terrence Williams territory. Do I think he's going to have some sort of monster breakout year? No. But I don't have to in order to prefer him at that level ahead of JAGs like those.
wr rank total points per game poins
37.Floyd, Michael ARI WR 170.3 12.16833516085
38. Randle, Rueben NYG WR 166.8 11.12718537083
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
And if folks don't agree with me, that's fine. I'm not so high on the guy that I'm going to spend the next 20 posts and 2 days defending him against all comers.
But in the world of FF, there are two ways to win titles:
1) Find young / up-and-coming names and grab them ahead of their monster breakout season(s).
2) Find guys that deliver a little more value at each draft slot than their cost ... find WR10 performance with your WR15, WR15 performance with your WR20, WR20 with your WR30, and so on down the line.
In shallow leagues, you can field winning teams using exclusively strategy 1. If your 2015 Charles Johnson or DGB pick doesn't work out, you can always dump him and grab a name off the WW like, well, Rueben Randle.
In deep leagues - say those with 200+ position players rostered - if you pursue exclusively strategy 1, you'd better have a damn good hit rate, or you're sunk. By contrast, you can build an entire roster using Strategy 2, never once hit on a breakout star, and still win your league if the cards fall right.
I feel like the Shark Pool spends 99% of our time and energy debating Strategy 1 names when it's guys like Torrey Smith and Theo Riddick that, arguably, lead more teams to more titles than the average dude with a 500-post thread on page 1 of the SP.
But in the world of FF, there are two ways to win titles:
1) Find young / up-and-coming names and grab them ahead of their monster breakout season(s).
2) Find guys that deliver a little more value at each draft slot than their cost ... find WR10 performance with your WR15, WR15 performance with your WR20, WR20 with your WR30, and so on down the line.
In shallow leagues, you can field winning teams using exclusively strategy 1. If your 2015 Charles Johnson or DGB pick doesn't work out, you can always dump him and grab a name off the WW like, well, Rueben Randle.
In deep leagues - say those with 200+ position players rostered - if you pursue exclusively strategy 1, you'd better have a damn good hit rate, or you're sunk. By contrast, you can build an entire roster using Strategy 2, never once hit on a breakout star, and still win your league if the cards fall right.
I feel like the Shark Pool spends 99% of our time and energy debating Strategy 1 names when it's guys like Torrey Smith and Theo Riddick that, arguably, lead more teams to more titles than the average dude with a 500-post thread on page 1 of the SP.
Do I think Randle will be amazing next year? No I don't. Odds are against him. But I'm with the OP, he could very well turn into last year's Crabtree and he would cost you next to nothing to get because everyone feels like he sucks. Crabtree did good work for people last year
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Crabtree had a history of being a good receiver, I would rather take a chance on guys like Davante Adams, Seth Roberts, Cole Beasley any of the St. Louis receivers not named Austin
massraider
Footballguy
Crabtree is a bad comparison, IMO.
Crabtree received a lot of targets because the other three top targets were ALL rookies, and Cooper was playing injured late in the year. Even without the inflation in target numbers, he was a good WR that was injured, and playing for a dumpster fire of a team before OAK. Little in common with Randle.
Randle has only ever been potential, he's never been close to as good as Crabs at his best. But the main reason I am avoiding is I've read/heard from more than one source that his work ethic is less than desirable, he's got a bit of prima donna in him apparently.
One source I thought I heard this on was Ross Tucker's podcast, I cannot remember who he was speaking with. A mention if it here:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/giant-rueben-randle-agrees-terms-wih-eagles-article-1.2575469
He signed a one year deal. They have Matthews, Ertz comfortably ahead of him in targets, and Agholor is a 2nd year 1st round pick. Until he proves he's a bust, I think the team is going to give him targets as well.
Don't think I will be drafting him at all. Potential waiver wire target in case of Matthews injury.
Crabtree received a lot of targets because the other three top targets were ALL rookies, and Cooper was playing injured late in the year. Even without the inflation in target numbers, he was a good WR that was injured, and playing for a dumpster fire of a team before OAK. Little in common with Randle.
Randle has only ever been potential, he's never been close to as good as Crabs at his best. But the main reason I am avoiding is I've read/heard from more than one source that his work ethic is less than desirable, he's got a bit of prima donna in him apparently.
One source I thought I heard this on was Ross Tucker's podcast, I cannot remember who he was speaking with. A mention if it here:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/giant-rueben-randle-agrees-terms-wih-eagles-article-1.2575469
He signed a one year deal. They have Matthews, Ertz comfortably ahead of him in targets, and Agholor is a 2nd year 1st round pick. Until he proves he's a bust, I think the team is going to give him targets as well.
Don't think I will be drafting him at all. Potential waiver wire target in case of Matthews injury.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I like these types of threads in general(always looking for un-sexy veterans in good situations), but I am having a tough time following this argument for a few reasons.
- The offense(West Coast or not) is going from a system that had the 7th most offensive plays in the league to a KC system that was 2nd to last. Randle is going from 623 pass attempts to an offensive coach coming from a 473 pass attempt offense. It goes without saying that the KC offense hasn't exactly been known as an especially friendly to WR's with that smaller # of pass attempts. Can you even name the #2 WR in KC last season? The year before that? The year before that?
- The QB situation is MUCH worse with some frankenstein monster consisting of (Bradford/Daniel/Wentz) which is a big step down from Eli, for this season at least. Especially when you are the outside WR and both the offense and the QB's will likely be check-down-centric.
- At the NYG Randle was competing with..... Tye for targets? Vereen? In PHI Randle will be a distant third for targets(a much smaller pie of targets, remember) behind Mathews/Ertz even if he did win the #2 WR job. Not a big Huff fan but remember that Givens has been productive with Bradford before. I am not saying Givens is a great player, just adds another guy along with Agholor/Huff that Randle has to work his way through.
- Randle had been averaging 4TD/season before last season, and last year he doubled that TD production all the way up to 8TD as the #2 WR in that pass heavy NYG offense. What are the chances his TD production falls much closer to his 4TD/season average in a less pass friendly offense with much more competition for targets? That may not seem like a huge difference, but it really is when there is such a huge tier of guys with higher ceilings.
- As massraider pointed out, Randle doesn't have a reputation as a hard-worker, film-room type of guy. That matters because he is picking up a new offense and trying to create chemistry with a new QB. In fact, he may have to create timing with three different QB's before the season is over. It may or may not be a deserved reputation but to some extent his success will be working hard to pick up the offense/timing and if that's not his strength.....
I am all for finding a steady vet in a quality situation but this does not look like that to me.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Randle was completely useless in the games he didn't score a TD, which was half of them..
Avgs in games with TD (8 Games)
5.8trg/3.8rec/62yds = 16.3ypr
Avgs in games without TD (8 Games)
5.4trg/3.3rec/39yds = 11.8ypr
You can say that if you take away any WR's TD games and they will have a less thrilling stat line which is fair. But his targets and receptions were essentially static, while his YPR was drastically higher, so high that it would of put him among the league leaders.
So IMO the narrative that Randle was only productive because of TDs is not only correct, but those TDs were probably more flukey than most TDs. Relying on the long TDs for a guy who is inefficient while getting far less targets, and who will not be playing on the other side of a double team/OBJ every play is an exercise in futility.
If you want to keep him on your radar as an emergency hope for a TD fill-in, sure.. he belongs on the waiver in redraft, and in dynasty your are burning a roster spot for a guy with no upside other than being a hope for a TD fill-in.
Avgs in games with TD (8 Games)
5.8trg/3.8rec/62yds = 16.3ypr
Avgs in games without TD (8 Games)
5.4trg/3.3rec/39yds = 11.8ypr
You can say that if you take away any WR's TD games and they will have a less thrilling stat line which is fair. But his targets and receptions were essentially static, while his YPR was drastically higher, so high that it would of put him among the league leaders.
So IMO the narrative that Randle was only productive because of TDs is not only correct, but those TDs were probably more flukey than most TDs. Relying on the long TDs for a guy who is inefficient while getting far less targets, and who will not be playing on the other side of a double team/OBJ every play is an exercise in futility.
If you want to keep him on your radar as an emergency hope for a TD fill-in, sure.. he belongs on the waiver in redraft, and in dynasty your are burning a roster spot for a guy with no upside other than being a hope for a TD fill-in.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The number of offensive plays for the Eagles with Andy Reid as the HC and Pederson as an assistant were 1038 1036 and 1079 his last season there. The Eagles do not have a defense like KC so they have to throw the ball as they often find themselves in chase situations. They have thrown the ball over 600 times the last two seasons and I would expect something similar for the Eagles in 2016 allthough the total offensive plays may come down from Chip Kelly's 1100 pace the past two seasons.
McAdoo who also runs an up tempo offense ran 1054 plays last season. I could see the Eagles maybe only having 1030 or so if Pederson slows things down but I wouldn't expect the defense to be able to support conservative game plan which would have the Eagles running less than that.
Randle has been a pretty unimpressive WR up until last season when he did improve his catch rate to above 60% for the first time while still maintaining a healthy 14 yards per catch. If that carrys forward to the Eagles I could see him getting similar targets to what he had last year with the Giants and WR 3 numbers because of it. I don't think he is a 130 target guy. When he had 127 in 2014 he still didn't clear 1000 yards. He was inconsistent with the higher volume.
McAdoo who also runs an up tempo offense ran 1054 plays last season. I could see the Eagles maybe only having 1030 or so if Pederson slows things down but I wouldn't expect the defense to be able to support conservative game plan which would have the Eagles running less than that.
Randle has been a pretty unimpressive WR up until last season when he did improve his catch rate to above 60% for the first time while still maintaining a healthy 14 yards per catch. If that carrys forward to the Eagles I could see him getting similar targets to what he had last year with the Giants and WR 3 numbers because of it. I don't think he is a 130 target guy. When he had 127 in 2014 he still didn't clear 1000 yards. He was inconsistent with the higher volume.
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