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Will Elliott disappoint / when should you buy young dynasty RBs? (1 Viewer)

EBF

EBF

Footballguy
I've done a few rookie drafts already and one of the things I've noticed is that almost every holder of the 1.01 rookie pick has adopted a firm "I'm not selling this pick unless you offer the world" attitude. I have the 1.01 in two leagues and I feel the same way. Elliott seems like a very strong prospect who can step in and make a difference from day one. I have no interest in trading him away, but he's already being valued like a top 5 dynasty back and a top 15 overall dynasty pick, leaving little margin for error.

What are the odds that he actually lives up to those expectations? Some guys like Shaun Alexander, Adrian Peterson, and Steven Jackson pretty much dominate from their first year as a starter until they start to break down. Some guys flop outright (i.e. Donald Brown, Beanie Wells, Laurence Maroney, Felix Jones). Others have mixed careers featuring some good seasons and some bad ones. Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, Marshawn Lynch, Knowshon Moreno, Reggie Bush, Jonathan Stewart, Doug Martin, Ricky Williams, Mark Ingram, and Darren McFadden were all first round picks who had rocky and inconsistent careers. They were all basically left for dead at some point, only to come back and achieve varying degrees of relevance. Maybe a guy like Ryan Mathews or Melvin Gordon will do the same this year.

It makes me think that the time to buy Elliott is not right now (he's ridiculously expensive if you don't already own him or the 1.01), but rather in a couple years if and when it's revealed that he's a mere mortal and not the second coming of Jim Brown. I like the kid, but his explosiveness numbers at Ohio State weren't spectacular (he was just average or slightly below average at breaking long runs) and his combine looks more like Mark Ingram's than Adrian Peterson apart from the nice 40 time (Elliott had very poor jumps). He's prohibitively expensive to acquire him right now, so if you like him, should you actually hope that he struggles somewhat to take the bloom off the rose and knock his price down? Is it a good practice in general to make speculative buys of first round backs after they fall out fashion in FF leagues? It would've worked well for anyone who grabbed Stewart/Martin/DMC last season, though not as well for anyone who took Trent Richardson.

Should be wait for Zeke to slip some and then try to buy him? Should we be making speculative moves for Melvin Gordon and Jeremy Hill (a 2nd round pick, but the conversation still applies)?

 
I'm one who traded the farm for Trent Richardson during the rookie draft. Of course I regret that, but I did learn something:

When the price is already top 5, it can't go up much more. If you like a player and are willing to pay top 5 price, I'd recommend sitting back and waiting a season and see how he does. If he doesn't do great but you still like him, you can buy cheaper. If he does great, the price is likely still the same or not very much higher. 

 
I think one buy opportunity was pre-draft.  It has jumped the shark since... Not sure if Zeke will see much preseason action.  You might find a nervous trigger finger (or at least someone trying to cash in) after one sub-par outing.

 
DevilDog919 said:
I'm one who traded the farm for Trent Richardson during the rookie draft. Of course I regret that, but I did learn something:

When the price is already top 5, it can't go up much more. If you like a player and are willing to pay top 5 price, I'd recommend sitting back and waiting a season and see how he does. If he doesn't do great but you still like him, you can buy cheaper. If he does great, the price is likely still the same or not very much higher. 
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Nailed it. 

 
Maybe you don't want to sell the farm to get the 1.01.

But if you already own the 1.01, I feel like you have to hold if there's a prospect like Gurley or Elliott, who have a chance to be home runs (same as TRich back in his rookie draft year). When you have a chance to swing for the fences in dynasty, don't you have to just take it when you have a pick that high?

 
joey said:
Maybe you don't want to sell the farm to get the 1.01.

But if you already own the 1.01, I feel like you have to hold if there's a prospect like Gurley or Elliott, who have a chance to be home runs (same as TRich back in his rookie draft year). When you have a chance to swing for the fences in dynasty, don't you have to just take it when you have a pick that high?
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You do, unless you're offered a player who is already performing at zeke's ceiling and is young.  The asking price (when it's even possible) seems reasonable when we remember that we don't really lose much by swinging for the fences in most leagues, it's not like we lose our house for being wrong.  

That said, he probably will disappoint those who expect top 5 production immediately.  Devildog is right, non owners of the pick should wait. 

 
In a vacuum you want as many elite players on your team as possible. I think Elliot qualifies as that. About the only other RB worth the same as him right now is Gurley. Most of the other players who might be at these two RBs level are old such as Peterson and Charles or getting there like McCoy or have question marks like Bell who has missed time with injuries.

On the other hand if your team earned the 1st overall pick. I don't think Elliot is going to turn your team around by himself. If such a team does not have any good young WR I would likely be looking to trade the pick for one really good WR and perhaps another lesser young WR plus picks to put my team in a better position to win in the future. I think Elliot is more of a final piece you add towards a championship run. Not a piece you should start with if you do not have anything else. If you did start with Elliot some of his best years may be over by the time you assemble enough pieces at other positions to compliment him.

 
You're paying for him to be AD. If you don't believe he is that you should trade out of 1.01. This isn't rocket science. Once the pick is made it hardly ever has the same value again. It's why I've moved toward trading my future picks in most dynasty leagues. Yes the draft is fun, but less than a quarter of guys work out. I would much rather take on the upside of a young player who has shown potential at the NFL level to break out then a college kid who may not even be mature enough to break camp. The NFL has gotten a little better about identifying that but it still happens.

 
DevilDog919 said:
I'm one who traded the farm for Trent Richardson during the rookie draft. Of course I regret that, but I did learn something:

When the price is already top 5, it can't go up much more. If you like a player and are willing to pay top 5 price, I'd recommend sitting back and waiting a season and see how he does. If he doesn't do great but you still like him, you can buy cheaper. If he does great, the price is likely still the same or not very much higher. 
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I think this is true of rookie WRs who perform mediocre, but rookie RBs, especially ones taken highly in the NFL draft, do not seem to see a drop in value unless their rookie year is a total disaster.

Trent Richardson was even MORE valuable after his mediocre rookie year, not less.  He was even MORE expensive to acquire.  He went from a guy that was being drafted in the first round of startup drafts despite having never played to a guy being drafted 1.01 in startup drafts despite having never played particularly well.

If you want to buy a highly drafted rookie RB low, you typically have to wait a couple years, not just one.  It takes that long for the luster to wear off, which is one of the reasons a lot of people feel safe-ish investing in these highly volatile rookies.  Because it's really difficult to not be able to at least get your return back a year later.

Maybe next year's strong RB class will change that some in this scenario since there will be so many other shiny new toys at RB.  But typically I don't think you're going to get much of a bargain after year 1.

 
Bojang0301 said:
I would much rather take on the upside of a young player who has shown potential at the NFL level to break out then a college kid who may not even be mature enough to break camp. The NFL has gotten a little better about identifying that but it still happens.
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The problem with this is that the guys who have shown good potential are even more expensive typically and often even less likely to work out.

The Jeremy Hill's and Montee Ball's of the world are even more numerous than the rookies that commanded as much value right off the bat and didn't work out.

It's a logical fallacy.  Playing well in a few games makes you no more "proven" than someone that's never stepped onto the field.  Relative to the cost it then takes to acquire those guys, it often works out as a net negative.  David Johnson is no less likely to bust than Ezekiel Elliot.  Historically, he's actually more likely to flop.

 
He has a lot of hype to live up to in that town at that pick behind that line. I have seen Dallas fans act as if this pick assures them a Super Bowl, and I would not go that far.

 
At this point- with the expectations that most in the fantasy football community have on him, pretty much any season he has other than breaking records will be a disappointment. Check some of the posts in the 1.01 trade thread. What some people are offering and turning down is amazing to me.

 
Once that October Collarbone Crack happens,  I imagine he will see some stacked fronts.  

But yeah,  I don't see any reason to slow the party train down.  

 
Trying to decide if I want to offer David Johnson for Elliot.  I know Johnson is the bird in the hand, but Elliot is tempting to chase after.

 
WheelsUp said:
He has a lot of hype to live up to in that town at that pick behind that line. I have seen Dallas fans act as if this pick assures them a Super Bowl, and I would not go that far.
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agreed, Zeke is probably going to do a lot more for FF owners than the Cowboys. 

But - if the team stays healthy, there's little doubt in my mind that Dallas wins the division.  Probably get a top 2 seed.  With the weak-### schedule, they could easily start 5-0, the Pack in week 6 are their only tough fight before their bye.  The schedule isn't much tougher after that.  Their schedule is criminally weak.

 
I offered Cobb and the 1.05, which turned out to be Derrick Henry. Was told 1.01 was not for sale or else I was thinking about offering a counter of Kevin White and 1.05.  I do believe those offers are in the range of what Elliot's real as opposed to market value is, but of course, only time will tell.

As for when to buy a player like Elliot, your argument is reasonable--wait and more than likely his value will fall because it is so incredibly high now in 95% of the cases a rookie will fail to live up to them. But in this case I have a feeling his performance won't disappoint too much because he walks into a situation where he will be given the rock and where he will be in a good offense with an above average OL.  Short of injury, I don't think he fails like Trent Richardson, who went to a sad sack team.  

In comparing him to other top rookie RBs, his draft pedigree and college performance outshine the outright flops you mention: (i.e. Donald Brown, Beanie Wells, Laurence Maroney, Felix Jones).  None of those guys came into the League with the same expectations or accomplishments.

He aligns more with this group:  Thomas Jones, Cedric Benson, Marshawn Lynch, Knowshon Moreno, Reggie Bush, Jonathan Stewart, Doug Martin, Ricky Williams, Mark Ingram, and Darren McFadden.

If you look at that group, the ones who got hurt or went to bad teams with bad OLs struggled a good deal.  So, unless Elliot gets hurt, something that is unpredictable unless the player is a known injury hazard, I don't expect his market value will fall that much this year.

 
Biabreakable said:
In a vacuum you want as many elite players on your team as possible. I think Elliot qualifies as that. About the only other RB worth the same as him right now is Gurley. Most of the other players who might be at these two RBs level are old such as Peterson and Charles or getting there like McCoy or have question marks like Bell who has missed time with injuries.

On the other hand if your team earned the 1st overall pick. I don't think Elliot is going to turn your team around by himself. If such a team does not have any good young WR I would likely be looking to trade the pick for one really good WR and perhaps another lesser young WR plus picks to put my team in a better position to win in the future. I think Elliot is more of a final piece you add towards a championship run. Not a piece you should start with if you do not have anything else. If you did start with Elliot some of his best years may be over by the time you assemble enough pieces at other positions to compliment him.
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THIS!!!!

I missed the championship last year but not by much. It was largely due to injuries I had 12 injured players that had a huge impact on my team. Now I have a healthy Hyde along with Ingram, Gurley and now Zeke. I'm not selling he's the piece of the puzzle that I need to help me take home the prize. Having Zeke means I can free myself from Blount who's in NE and it's a crap shoot every time I take a chance to start him. With Gio Bernard (whom I'll will keep and hope he hits FA) he's sharing the ball with Hill even though Gio is clearly the better back. Ajayi is a wait and see how this turns out player, I'm not counting on him to be a RB1.

I said all that to say that as a championship contender Zeke is a player that if given the ball 20+ times a game will help me get "in position" to win my championship this year.

Tex

 
Hard to see how he could be a bust outside of injury. I would think volume alone would at least give him a trent richardson like rookie year.

 
My question for this year is the Cowboys have Darren McFadden, Alfred Morries, and Ezekiel Elliot.  Why on earth would they only give the ball to him this year?? The Cowboys want to make the playoffs, and want to be healthy.  Mcfadden topped 1,000 yds last year, and although Morris had a down year you have to think that the Cowboys believe that they can plug anyone of those guys in their system and see them have success.  They are going to use all 3 all year to protect their QB most importantly, and keep them all fresh come playoff time.  

In Dynasty absolutely, I think he is worth a high pick if you like his talent and are looking to build your team down the road although I personally would sell high, but there is no way I am paying that price for him hoping that he performs at a top 5 level this year.  

If anything for this year at least, I might look to grab Morris or Mcfadden (based on how training camp and pre-season goes) in the later round in hopes that one of them might have good value as a RB 3/4 for cheap 

 
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joey said:
Maybe you don't want to sell the farm to get the 1.01.

But if you already own the 1.01, I feel like you have to hold if there's a prospect like Gurley or Elliott, who have a chance to be home runs (same as TRich back in his rookie draft year). When you have a chance to swing for the fences in dynasty, don't you have to just take it when you have a pick that high?
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No.  In dynasty, when you have that kind of value that is unknown and you can sell it for that much known, THAT is when you MUST make the move (and sell).  Elliott may be great and he may even be special but if you are playing dynasty football, your objective isn't to be the guy that had a great year that ONE time when your player was lights out. Your objective is to be that guy that everyone else chases every single year because you've made a perennial serious contender. 

You don't get many opportunities in dynasty to, in one fell swoop, basically build the rock solid portion of a foundation for a long-term team.  People are offering that kind of return for Elliott right now.  That is the deal you should make.  If I had Elliott, I'd take a lot of these offers I am seeing posted.  There's one in a thread about GRonk +blah blah and blah. Are you crazy?  Yes, you do that deal. 

If nothing else, think of Elliott Right now.  Compare that to TRICH a few years ago.  What do you know for certain that's all that different between the two at similar points?  Not saying Elliott busts but using it to say now think of next year when Fournette and let's say Chubb has a healthy season and looks pre-injury.  Is there a difference then?  Is Elliott SO special a year from now in a league with Bell, D. Johnson, the incoming class, maybe guys like L. Miller and D. lewis and some others who may have a great season?  To me, this isn't about player "x". This is about relative value.  Devildog nailed it and indirectly stated that you have a ton more to lose than gain by holding vs. selling.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I think this is true of rookie WRs who perform mediocre, but rookie RBs, especially ones taken highly in the NFL draft, do not seem to see a drop in value unless their rookie year is a total disaster.

Trent Richardson was even MORE valuable after his mediocre rookie year, not less.  He was even MORE expensive to acquire.  He went from a guy that was being drafted in the first round of startup drafts despite having never played to a guy being drafted 1.01 in startup drafts despite having never played particularly well.

If you want to buy a highly drafted rookie RB low, you typically have to wait a couple years, not just one.  It takes that long for the luster to wear off, which is one of the reasons a lot of people feel safe-ish investing in these highly volatile rookies.  Because it's really difficult to not be able to at least get your return back a year later.

Maybe next year's strong RB class will change that some in this scenario since there will be so many other shiny new toys at RB.  But typically I don't think you're going to get much of a bargain after year 1.
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The difference to be noted in TRICH example though is that TRICH didn't bust that first year. HE showed just enough for people to maintain optimism and he was very expensive to acquire so relative to his price he DID disappoint (people were talking about how he was a top 5 already and maybe drafted above Peterson immediately, etc). 

So, if you walk a mile in the TRICH owner's shoes, you likely live a tale where a guy had a bad team and set himself back by trying to build around TRICH OR a guy paid a ton for him and it set his team back. ANd then he goes through a year where he is teased and then it bottoms out. I know a couple of guys in dynasty leagues I played in (and this could just be coincidence) where the TRICH years have blasted their teams back to the stone age because they missed and missed big and worse yet, the following year they didn't address RB because they were still holding out hope for TRICH and they missed a good group there too.

 
Shutout said:
The difference to be noted in TRICH example though is that TRICH didn't bust that first year. HE showed just enough for people to maintain optimism and he was very expensive to acquire so relative to his price he DID disappoint (people were talking about how he was a top 5 already and maybe drafted above Peterson immediately, etc). 

So, if you walk a mile in the TRICH owner's shoes, you likely live a tale where a guy had a bad team and set himself back by trying to build around TRICH OR a guy paid a ton for him and it set his team back. ANd then he goes through a year where he is teased and then it bottoms out. I know a couple of guys in dynasty leagues I played in (and this could just be coincidence) where the TRICH years have blasted their teams back to the stone age because they missed and missed big and worse yet, the following year they didn't address RB because they were still holding out hope for TRICH and they missed a good group there too.
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Richardson rode a 3.6 rookie ypc to being the consensus #1 dynasty player heading into the following year, after being a late 1st rounder in startups as a rookie.  With a little bit of volume and a bad YPC his value rose, substantially, despite it already being sky high to start.

It's hard to find examples of RBs that were top 5 NFL picks (and to a lesser extent, even top 10 NFL picks) that were significantly worse as a rookie.  That's kind of the point.  Your chances of finding one of these guys who's cheaper in year 2 than in year 1 are slim.  To find that I think we have to go back eighteen years to Curtis Enis, and even him I can't recall if his value actually dropped in year 2 or if I just have a biased memory of him based on the rest of his career.

The only way you're going to be able to buy these guys cheaper in a year or so is if they're SO bad that even you don't want them anymore.  The notion that you can wait a year on a guy like Elliot is just made up out of thin air as best I can tell, as these guys are almost never cheaper in year two.  Either Elliot will be awesome and his value will go up even more, or he'll be mediocre and his value will still go up a fair amount, or he'll average 2ypc through 12 games and then tear his achilles at which point you won't want him anymore. 

If we want to start talking about ~3 years out then I'm game.  By then the luster has worn off and this crazy youth movement we've seen in dynasty will start viewing him as that guy who's almost to that age where he's almost starting to get old.  But entering year 2 he's still the shiny new thing, and people aren't ready to move on to the next shiny new thing yet.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Richardson rode a 3.6 rookie ypc to being the consensus #1 dynasty player heading into the following year, after being a late 1st rounder in startups as a rookie.  With a little bit of volume and a bad YPC his value rose, substantially, despite it already being sky high to start.

It's hard to find examples of RBs that were top 5 NFL picks (and to a lesser extent, even top 10 NFL picks) that were significantly worse as a rookie.  That's kind of the point.  Your chances of finding one of these guys who's cheaper in year 2 than in year 1 are slim.  To find that I think we have to go back eighteen years to Curtis Enis, and even him I can't recall if his value actually dropped in year 2 or if I just have a biased memory of him based on the rest of his career.

The only way you're going to be able to buy these guys cheaper in a year or so is if they're SO bad that even you don't want them anymore.  The notion that you can wait a year on a guy like Elliot is just made up out of thin air as best I can tell, as these guys are almost never cheaper in year two.  Either Elliot will be awesome and his value will go up even more, or he'll be mediocre and his value will still go up a fair amount, or he'll average 2ypc through 12 games and then tear his achilles at which point you won't want him anymore. 
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I think you only have to look back to just one year (2 if you want to include some other positions) to see that it can be done. If you look in the threads discussing Elliott's 1.01 value (here and other sites), you'll see people mentioning offering Gurley + something for Elliott. Gurley had a pretty good year in limited action but even he is being mentioned. 

So fast forward a year and unless Elliott comes out and has a season for the ages, I guarantee you there will be people talking about Elliott being traded for Fournette, Maybe Chubb if he shows pre-injury form or maybe even one of the other RBs in what should be a very good year next year.  It is simply people having a bit of rookie fever and chasing the new shiny thing.

I'm not wanting to go down the road of debating exact value for value but I think the underlying message here is that there is some situational inflation going on here and it will happen again and the only way to truly make an owner feel like they get their money's worth is Elliott has to be lights out from the beginning or he will come down a bit. 

 
DevilDog919 said:
I'm one who traded the farm for Trent Richardson during the rookie draft. Of course I regret that, but I did learn something:

When the price is already top 5, it can't go up much more. If you like a player and are willing to pay top 5 price, I'd recommend sitting back and waiting a season and see how he does. If he doesn't do great but you still like him, you can buy cheaper. If he does great, the price is likely still the same or not very much higher. 
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Depends on the player.  Peterson and Gurley were both much cheaper to get before their rookie seasons than after them.  I mean Peterson had 1,600 yards and 13 TDs (and he missed two games) and was only 22.  On a PPG basis he was right there with the "immortal" Tomlinson, as a rookie.  A dump truck of picks wasn't buying him.

The other thing you did was miss out on season of a RB who had a 1,600 yard season with 13 TDs in 14 games.  Even if you did buy at the exact same price a year later, you'll never make up that lost year. 

 
Shutout said:
I think you only have to look back to just one year (2 if you want to include some other positions) to see that it can be done. If you look in the threads discussing Elliott's 1.01 value (here and other sites), you'll see people mentioning offering Gurley + something for Elliott. Gurley had a pretty good year in limited action but even he is being mentioned. 

So fast forward a year and unless Elliott comes out and has a season for the ages, I guarantee you there will be people talking about Elliott being traded for Fournette, Maybe Chubb if he shows pre-injury form or maybe even one of the other RBs in what should be a very good year next year.  It is simply people having a bit of rookie fever and chasing the new shiny thing.

I'm not wanting to go down the road of debating exact value for value but I think the underlying message here is that there is some situational inflation going on here and it will happen again and the only way to truly make an owner feel like they get their money's worth is Elliott has to be lights out from the beginning or he will come down a bit. 
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Wait, what?  Gurley's value is in no way lower than it was at this point last year, not even close.  His ADP in startup dynasty drafts right now is 1.03.  Last year it was 2.10...

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Wait, what?  Gurley's value is in no way lower than it was at this point last year, not even close.  His ADP in startup dynasty drafts right now is 1.03.  Last year it was 2.10...
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I'd guess Gurley is practically untouchable now and haven't see anyone state anywhere that they were willing to pay Gurley (plus more) for Elliot or that any Elliot owner would turn an offer of Gurley for Elliot down.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
It's hard to find examples of RBs that were top 5 NFL picks (and to a lesser extent, even top 10 NFL picks) that were significantly worse as a rookie.  That's kind of the point.  Your chances of finding one of these guys who's cheaper in year 2 than in year 1 are slim.  To find that I think we have to go back eighteen years to Curtis Enis, and even him I can't recall if his value actually dropped in year 2 or if I just have a biased memory of him based on the rest of his career.
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Marshall Faulk HOF killed it from year one through his age 28 season

Reggie Bush wasn't that good until his 6th season (in standard)

Ronnie Brown best year was his 4th

Barry Sanders HOF better player than Emmitt Smith on a worse team.

Garrison Hearst Injured early on in his career. Becaome relevant year 5 and his best season in year 6.

Trent Richardson best year was as a rookie then faded.

Edgerrin James Great career when healthy. Not quite what he was returning from injury.

Cedric Benson Not relevant until his 5th and 6th seasons. He was stuck behind Thomas Jones another high draft pick who struggled early on in his career.

Darren McFadden His best and only good season was in year 3

LaDainian Tomlinson about as good as Faulks career. Some doubted his rookie season which also was 3.6 same as Richardson. LT got better TR did not.

Jamal Lewis His best seasons were his 2nd and 3rd. Not sure if he was a decent buy target going into his second season. 

Ricky Williams shared time with Duece McCalister and possibly could have been cheaper going into year 2. His best seasons were 3 to 5.

Cadillac Williams bombed out due to injury.

Curtis Enis best year was year 2 was out of the league after 3 seasons.

While I would not expect the price to be cheap next year even if Elliot does a face plant this year. However looking at these players career paths I think there certainly have been opportunities to buy many of these players at possibly a lower price after their 1st seasons. 

These are just top 5 picks at RB. If you looked at only 1st round RB picks there will be many more examples, such as the already mentioned Thomas Jones.

 
Hurl Bruce said:
Trying to decide if I want to offer David Johnson for Elliot.  I know Johnson is the bird in the hand, but Elliot is tempting to chase after.
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I can't fathom trading DJ now for anything. If he continues on his current trajectory I would hate myself forever. 

 
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
Which was he better at? Killing drives instead of running the play as designed or disappearing in the playoffs? 
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Which was Emmitt better at; running behind the best O-line in NFL history, playing until he was 40 just to pass Barry's numbers, or slaughtering the English language every time he opens his mouth?

 
The time to buy is now if you think he's an instant producer (which I do). The OP is making the point that he's cheaper after he's been proven mortal. Yes, he'll cost less in 2 years. In the mean time he's likely giving you RB1 numbers. So is the cost difference between now and 2 years from now worth more than 2 RB1 seasons? No way. So if you believe in Zeke in yr1 and yr2 go get the production now. 

 
DevilDog919 said:
I'm one who traded the farm for Trent Richardson during the rookie draft. Of course I regret that, but I did learn something:

When the price is already top 5, it can't go up much more. If you like a player and are willing to pay top 5 price, I'd recommend sitting back and waiting a season and see how he does. If he doesn't do great but you still like him, you can buy cheaper. If he does great, the price is likely still the same or not very much higher. 
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:goodposting:

Elliot's value will likely never be higher than it is right now.  I would rather see if he is indeed a legit top 5 RB before I actually pay the price.  No big deal if he has one season already under his belt.....so you get one less year of elite production.  You will at least know what you're actually buying.

 
Biabreakable said:
Marshall Faulk HOF killed it from year one through his age 28 season

Reggie Bush wasn't that good until his 6th season (in standard)

Ronnie Brown best year was his 4th

Barry Sanders HOF better player than Emmitt Smith on a worse team.

Garrison Hearst Injured early on in his career. Becaome relevant year 5 and his best season in year 6.

Trent Richardson best year was as a rookie then faded.

Edgerrin James Great career when healthy. Not quite what he was returning from injury.

Cedric Benson Not relevant until his 5th and 6th seasons. He was stuck behind Thomas Jones another high draft pick who struggled early on in his career.

Darren McFadden His best and only good season was in year 3

LaDainian Tomlinson about as good as Faulks career. Some doubted his rookie season which also was 3.6 same as Richardson. LT got better TR did not.

Jamal Lewis His best seasons were his 2nd and 3rd. Not sure if he was a decent buy target going into his second season. 

Ricky Williams shared time with Duece McCalister and possibly could have been cheaper going into year 2. His best seasons were 3 to 5.

Cadillac Williams bombed out due to injury.

Curtis Enis best year was year 2 was out of the league after 3 seasons.

While I would not expect the price to be cheap next year even if Elliot does a face plant this year. However looking at these players career paths I think there certainly have been opportunities to buy many of these players at possibly a lower price after their 1st seasons. 

These are just top 5 picks at RB. If you looked at only 1st round RB picks there will be many more examples, such as the already mentioned Thomas Jones.
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I'm not sure you're jumping into the right convo.  I said up above that if you want to start talking about buying 3+ years down the road that's one thing.  I was talking about the people who were saying to buy next year because he would cheaper, and it looks like a few more have come out of the woodwork up above.

 
fightingillini said:
:goodposting:

Elliot's value will likely never be higher than it is right now.  I would rather see if he is indeed a legit top 5 RB before I actually pay the price.  No big deal if he has one season already under his belt.....so you get one less year of elite production.  You will at least know what you're actually buying.
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You have a misplaced "never".

Elliot's value will likely be higher than it is right now next year, as it has been for virtually every other RB drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft.  As has been explained several times up above, even a mediocre season (like Trent Richardson's) will cause his value to skyrocket even more, not fall.  Richardson went from 1.12 ADP as a rookie to 1.01 in year 2.  Gurley went from 2.10 as a rookie to 1.03 in year 2.  You think Elliot is expensive now?  Just wait a year and see how expensive he can REALLY get.

The only way he's cheaper next year is if he averages 2ypc in a RBBC and tears his achilles this year.

 
fightingillini said:
:goodposting:

Elliot's value will likely never be higher than it is right now.  I would rather see if he is indeed a legit top 5 RB before I actually pay the price.  No big deal if he has one season already under his belt.....so you get one less year of elite production.  You will at least know what you're actually buying.
Click to expand...
Of course his value is likely to go down. That's really not even debatable. He's already used one of his prime years at a position where you don't get many. Completely disagree that missing a year of elite production is no big deal.  

 
One thing that hasn't been touched on in this thread is that, while Elliot's value is very high, I think there may be a bit of a bloated perception as to just how high it is.  Just by the nature of him being a rookie in the rookie draft it means most of the trades with him involve other rookie picks, and rookie picks this year are very unique in that there is one really standout player and then a bunch of other guys that no one really wants that badly.  In all of my leagues, most people outside of the 1.01 owner have been looking to sell their picks.  

Moving from 1.01 to 1.02 this year isn't like last year where 1.02 was Cooper.  So when people see "crazy" trades like 1.02 + 1.06 + 1.10 for 1.01, it seems absurd but it's not a normal 1.02 + 1.06 + 1.07.  The guys available at 1.02 this year would probably have been in the same tier as guys like Perriman/Agholor (~1.06) last year.  The guys available at 1.06 this year like Henry would probably have been in the same tier as Yeldon/Abdullah (and probably actually behind both of them), whom were both latish 1st rounders, last year.  Likewise, guys at 1.10 this year like Booker and Perkins would have been more like mid-late 2nd rounders (Ajayi) last year.

So when we see adding 1.06 and 1.10 just to move up "1 spot" from 1.02 to 1.01, it's misleading because there is a much huger gulf in all those picks than most years.  It's not the same as giving up 1.02 + 1.06 + 1.10 last year for Gurley.  It's more like giving up 1.06 + 1.11 + 2.07 for Gurley last year, because those are the quality of players you're getting at those spots.  In that case, it seems much more reasonable.

Again, not saying that Elliot doesn't have immense value, but I think people having a hard time separating the value of a certain pick from the players it actually pertains to in this year's weak class has driven up that perception at least a little bit.

 
Rookie player value does get insulated a bit even if they do not do well as rookies, as most will expect them to improve after their first season. Every player has their ups and downs. I don't know what will happen to cause people to doubt Elliot in the future but I think there will be some point in the future where he may be had for a cheaper cost, of course if that is two years from now, he should be cheaper by that point as he would only have four of his potential peak years left at that point instead of six. Otherwise it is going to take something else to cause doubt about Elliot. Stuff happens though.

Historically the best year for all RB was their 3rd season. Their best years occur during their first six seasons and the rookie year was actually the lowest point of scoring of the first six years.

For 21 year old RB their best season is in year three.

For RB drafted in the top 13 of the draft the sixth season was their best followed by their rookie season.

So the rookie season is important and historical data shows that RB in the same categories by age and draft position usually have a very good rookie season. Much better than an average RB does or RB from older or later draft position have had.

 
spider321 said:
Which was Emmitt better at; running behind the best O-line in NFL history, playing until he was 40 just to pass Barry's numbers, or slaughtering the English language every time he opens his mouth?
Click to expand...
Yes. He was better than Barry at pretty much all of those things.  Emmitt was pretty much better than Barry at everything, well except for being absentee father. 

 
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
Yes. He was better than Barry at pretty much all of those things.  Emmitt was pretty much better than Barry at everything, well except for being absentee father. 
Click to expand...
Cool.

Put Barry behind that Cowboys' line and he's the first RB in history to score EVERY time he touched the ball.

 
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
 Cool.  If my aunt had a #### she would be my uncle.
Click to expand...
Now you're getting it!

Emmitt was very good.  Barry was great.

Put Emmitt on those Lions teams, and no one would remember him(think Derek Jeter on the Brewers).

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
One thing that hasn't been touched on in this thread is that, while Elliot's value is very high, I think there may be a bit of a bloated perception as to just how high it is.  Just by the nature of him being a rookie in the rookie draft it means most of the trades with him involve other rookie picks, and rookie picks this year are very unique in that there is one really standout player and then a bunch of other guys that no one really wants that badly.  In all of my leagues, most people outside of the 1.01 owner have been looking to sell their picks.  

Moving from 1.01 to 1.02 this year isn't like last year where 1.02 was Cooper.  So when people see "crazy" trades like 1.02 + 1.06 + 1.10 for 1.01, it seems absurd but it's not a normal 1.02 + 1.06 + 1.07.  The guys available at 1.02 this year would probably have been in the same tier as guys like Perriman/Agholor (~1.06) last year.  The guys available at 1.06 this year like Henry would probably have been in the same tier as Yeldon/Abdullah (and probably actually behind both of them), whom were both latish 1st rounders, last year.  Likewise, guys at 1.10 this year like Booker and Perkins would have been more like mid-late 2nd rounders (Ajayi) last year.

So when we see adding 1.06 and 1.10 just to move up "1 spot" from 1.02 to 1.01, it's misleading because there is a much huger gulf in all those picks than most years.  It's not the same as giving up 1.02 + 1.06 + 1.10 last year for Gurley.  It's more like giving up 1.06 + 1.11 + 2.07 for Gurley last year, because those are the quality of players you're getting at those spots.  In that case, it seems much more reasonable.

Again, not saying that Elliot doesn't have immense value, but I think people having a hard time separating the value of a certain pick from the players it actually pertains to in this year's weak class has driven up that perception at least a little bit.
Click to expand...
Those aren't the cray prices people are talking about.  I saw 1.01 and 1.14 go for Gurley and Hilton. I personally traded Elliott for Julio.  I had someone tell me they were offered Gurley for 1.01 straight up and he passed.  Those are the crazy deals.

 
Some things need to be sorted out in this thread. 

A) It's not a Barry vs Emmit thread. 

B) Look at the 1.01 value thread for what Elliot is currently worth. *It seems to be climbing though.* 

The last post I read in the 1.01 market value thread, respected veteran FBG @cstu has Elliot ranked as the 2nd best RB for dynasty. Bell is far enough behind that he would need a 2nd round rookie pick added to Bell to take that trade. Roughly. So, are far behind Gurley is he? Or how long before he jumps Gurley? 

If a guy that just signed his rookie deal a couple days ago is already at the RB2 (with a clear gap between RB3) then his value can only go up one spot. And I can already hear the agrument for Elliot over Gurley. "Better OL, probably will catch more out of the back field, Dez keeps defenses honest, no major injury history, younger." I think mid July there's a chance that the conversation is Elliot vs Gurley as the RB1 and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to Elliot. 

When we were talking about when to try and buy Zeke (in terms of years not months), I don't see how his value can get any higher. We are talking about "buying" through trades.

***Gurley had his value increase but he didn't they same level of excitement that Elliot does.***

 
Borden said:
If a guy that just signed his rookie deal a couple days ago is already at the RB2 (with a clear gap between RB3) then his value can only go up one spot.
Click to expand...
This is a pretty simplistic way of looking at it.  RB2 is still behind ~10 WRs and Gronk in most dynasty rankings so there is plenty of room to move up.  That's not even to mention that value does not have to be tied solely to how many people they pass in the rankings.  OBJ is #1 overall right now so according to what your saying his value can't go up at all, but if he goes for 2000yds and 20 TDs this year it will rise massively, even though he didn't actually move in the rankings at all.

For those baffled by the idea that Julio would be traded for Elliot right now, consider that unless Elliot has a total disaster of a year Julio will probably barely be a starting point to talks about getting Elliot next year.  These guy's value peaks heading into year 2 or 3, not year 1 unless they're just really bad or suffer a major injury.

The idea that you can just wait a year to make sure he's good and then buy him for basically the same value at this time next year is, simply put, wrong according to the history of these kind of players.  We have 15 years of recent history telling us that.  Every one of these top 5 NFL picks at RB in that time span was more expensive to acquire in year 2 than year 1, often significantly more.

 
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