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*** Official 2016 AtlanticHurricane Season thread *** (1 Viewer)

Mjolnirs

Footballguy
The season starts on June 1st, but Mother Nature does not care.

Invest 91L spaghetti models.





 


 


 


 


 


2016 names
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Ian
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tobias
Virginie
Walter

I forgot about Alex in January, so Bonnie is the next name.  Of course the new editor will not allow me use the strike through command, so I have bold the names used.

Hey board upgrade ... you still suck!


 
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Hope everyone comes through safe and sound. Likely the last year I'm 30 feet from the water, 6 feet above sea level. Hoping to dodge the bullet one last year. I figure Mother Nature still owes me from Sandy.

Looks like a wet weekend for SC. Good luck!

 
Hope everyone comes through safe and sound. Likely the last year I'm 30 feet from the water, 6 feet above sea level. Hoping to dodge the bullet one last year. I figure Mother Nature still owes me from Sandy.

Looks like a wet weekend for SC. Good luck!
Blech.  Hoping the system passes by Monday so we can enjoy at least a smidge of sun on Sullivan's.

 
I've always lived near the water but not right on it. And the spot on the East Coast of Florida I am in jets out a little before you hit the more Central part of the coast north of here. I never worry about Hurricanes, native Floridian. I left for Tampa 1 week before Andrew hit in 1992. Then I was in SoCal during a vicious set of storms over a couple years in 2003/2004 IIRC

Since I came back in 2007, we haven't had barely a scare here in South Florida. I would not enjoy the Carolina Beaches, seems almost every year they get something around that part of the Eastern Coast. 

I honestly think the worst Hurricanes for Florida are the type that whip up quick in the Gulf or South of Cuba and come up almost thru the middle of the state...doesn't happen often but most Atlantic storms we see coming a long way away, no reason folks should be caught off guard. 

 
I've always lived near the water but not right on it. And the spot on the East Coast of Florida I am in jets out a little before you hit the more Central part of the coast north of here. I never worry about Hurricanes, native Floridian. I left for Tampa 1 week before Andrew hit in 1992. Then I was in SoCal during a vicious set of storms over a couple years in 2003/2004 IIRC

Since I came back in 2007, we haven't had barely a scare here in South Florida. I would not enjoy the Carolina Beaches, seems almost every year they get something around that part of the Eastern Coast. 

I honestly think the worst Hurricanes for Florida are the type that whip up quick in the Gulf or South of Cuba and come up almost thru the middle of the state...doesn't happen often but most Atlantic storms we see coming a long way away, no reason folks should be caught off guard. 
That's one thing I like about Tampa. It's not a bullseye for hurricanes usually (even though Hurricane Elena in 1985 played "Just The Tip" with the city when I was 3 months old or so).

 
It's supposed to be a near normal hurricane season. The last few have been below average. The GWO prediction is for 3 hurricanes to make US landfall, compared to only 1 total in the last 3 years. 

 
Checking in from South Florida. Have been here for 6 years and nary a scare. The one time (2013?) that we thought there may be one ramping up to hit the area, my neighbor and I did a little NASCAR-style pit crew experience putting up our hurricane shutters. Other than that, we haven't had much to worry about. 

Here's to getting through another year without a major strike!

:cheers:

:clink:

 
TS Colin popped up out of nowhere (to me)...tomorrow in Tampa Bay could be sketchy.

 
Apparently wind shear will keep it from getting too strong before reaching FL. Once it's on the other side it should become a decent TS. Right off the coast of SC. Then it looks like it will head out to sea.

 
Bumped up to a TS Warning this morning. Looks like heavy rain, but the worst part will stay offshore (after passing over Florida).

 
Im in St. Pete, rain has been pretty steady all day, varying intensity, little, if any wind. We did have a transformer explode behind my office, but the power stayed on, so I'm still here.

All that being said, currently I can see the sun!

 
We're about to gte monkey hammered just in time for afternoon rush.

Fun, fun, fun
I was just commenting about this to my wife.  I work from home now, and was thinking how glad I am that I am not going to be in afternoon traffic.

Where I was driving to is on the peninsula and the parking lot and surrounding streets flood at high tide on sunny days.  Today it would just be like the canals of Venice.

 
Under tornado warning now. Tornado was spotted in area.  work and cell phones are exploding with messages from work telling us to stay away from windows, yadda yadda, yadda,

I95 traffic going over Fuller Warren bridge at total standstill crossing the St. Johns

 
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Man my favorite fishin and Island get away getting hammered.Seems like Cedar Key gets it every time.The place I stay all the time under water.

 
Pretty light in Eustis tropical storms usually don't effect us to bad we are right in the center of the state.Only real worry is a possible tornado.Cedar Key always seems to get smacked with storm surges.

 
So I will share a couple things and was wanting to find this thread or bump it...where I am in South Florida, seems like we are in drought. Water retention ponds are very low and it has been day after day of high temperatures...what can happen and I hope I'm wrong but eventually mother nature sends along a Hurricane to cool down the waters. 

A good drenching, even a tropical wave would help a lot before things get past the point of no return. I'm saying the MOP Hurricane Almanac is forecasting a higher than normal chance this season, I usually downplay the storms but it's been a while and close to 25 years since Andrew hit South Florida, eventually something is going to come this way, history says so. 

 
That's not how it works. That said, with the increased temp of the Atlantic stronger storms are likely to hit the coast.

 
So I will share a couple things and was wanting to find this thread or bump it...where I am in South Florida, seems like we are in drought. Water retention ponds are very low and it has been day after day of high temperatures...what can happen and I hope I'm wrong but eventually mother nature sends along a Hurricane to cool down the waters. 

A good drenching, even a tropical wave would help a lot before things get past the point of no return. I'm saying the MOP Hurricane Almanac is forecasting a higher than normal chance this season, I usually downplay the storms but it's been a while and close to 25 years since Andrew hit South Florida, eventually something is going to come this way, history says so. 


That's not how it works. That said, with the increased temp of the Atlantic stronger storms are likely to hit the coast.
I'm Shuked and I think for once I'm using the term right. 

 
That's been the thought on that one all along so it's good to see that still appears to be the case.

Thinking about taking an OBX trip in October so plan on a storm around that time. ;)
Local weatherman comes on yesterday...BREAKING NEWS...then the tracks come out like the ones you are showing and I'm saying I will never listen to that breaking news signal again...if the storm had even a 1% chance of making it here, I might understand but they cry wolf way too much. 

 
Local weatherman comes on yesterday...BREAKING NEWS...then the tracks come out like the ones you are showing and I'm saying I will never listen to that breaking news signal again...if the storm had even a 1% chance of making it here, I might understand but they cry wolf way too much. 
Because I watch CNN (too much) I've grown to ignore BREAKING NEWS. Every hour, and in some cases after every commercial break, they seem to have a BREAKING NEWS alert. :rolleyes:

 
Could be something to watch with this Invest 99L to the SE of Fiona. Would become Gaston and should follow the somewhat "standard" track of heading towards the Caribbean.

 
Could be something to watch with this Invest 99L to the SE of Fiona. Would become Gaston and should follow the somewhat "standard" track of heading towards the Caribbean.
Invest 99L, which would have been Gaston but has been slow to develop, is still out there. It's starting to get it's act together but currently has only a medium chance of becoming a named storm. https://s.w-x.co/images/maps/truvu/map_specnewsdct-24_ltst_4namus_enus_650x366.jpg

Whatever it becomes, looks likely to head toward FL.

 
TD #9 is going to enter the Gulf and then make a bee line for somewhere North of Tampa although it should be noted that Tampa is likely to be in the wetter section side of the storm I am guessing, the right Southern side is usually not fun. I could be wrong but I would start grabbing water and a few things just in case the floods gets out of control. 

I doubt highly this even comes ashore as a Cat 1, if it does not much more. The wind isn't the biggest issue but the rain and how fast the storm moves will be huge factors. Hopefully it moves inland quickly and doesn't plod along dumping rain for longer periods of time. 

I think Florida is going to take a direct hit on this one, rare on the Gulf side but that's Florida. This is not going to be an Andrew but Tampa has that Bay and it can lead to a lot of problems if the storm passes close or direct. 

I hope it passes somewhere remote where the people who do live there can evacuate quickly and easily and hopefully minimize property damage. 

 
4-6 inches, maybe 9 in the next week...flooding could be an issue, but Tampa and the beaches can't handle a storm surge more that just flooding.

 
The waves have been HUGE over the last two days in R.I. Especially at the south facing beaches.  On Sunday I saw a rogue wave crash into the blue heads and chair people that were sun loving (and sleeping) pretty far up the beach.  It was funny because everyone got wet and was mad.   What's going on out there in the Atlantic?

 
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Thunderstorms are now wrapping around our center of low pressure in the Gulf which means a named tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico is likely by later this morning. Tropical storm watches may be issued for our area which means it is possible sustained wind speeds could reach 39 mph or greater within the next 48 hours. It still looks like Thursday is going to be the day for the biggest impacts of severe weather, wind and heavy rain. 
Storm could be cutting across Florida and heading this way.

http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/live-blog-tropical-disturbance-poised-to-impact-florida/307220714

 
July & August were so warm that I have a feeling we get one or two very strong storms due to the water temperature being so high.

 
Latest reports have TD9 probably becoming Tropical Storm Hermine sometime today. Expected landfall is Thursday night in the Big Bend/Cedar Key area. That part of coast has a lot of shallow water, leading to speculation that storm could intensify to 65 MPH (just under Cat 1 threshold) before landfall.

Latest models suggest the storm cuts through Okeefenokee Swamp and re-emerges in Atlantic off Georgia/SC coast Friday. Storm is supposed to hug coast  for Labor Day weekend.

Locally in Jacksonville, we'll be on the south/southeast side of the storm getting heavy rain. Waiting to see if they close any bridges since forecast is for 25-35 sustained winds and bridges close at 40 mph sustained. Forecasting 4-8 inches rain locally with tornado threat.

Probably try to work form home on Friday since I'm even further south of town and driving in would just put me closer to problems.

 
Which way?
Up the coast in a NE direction until about OBX then it should be well offshore for most of the mid/ne coast. Looks like a slight left turn when out to sea in a more NNE direction but unless there's a hard left it will miss most if not all of New England.

 
Hermine

High school games in Charleston are getting moved to Thursday night, and Charleston County advising "stay on home Friday if you don't have to travel."

 

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