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Who are you down on compared to the FF community? (1 Viewer)

P

Pastor

Footballguy
What player or players are you down on more than others and why?  

The Allen Hurns thread got me thinking about this. I will start-

1. Hurns- I don't think he will continue to avg 16.1 per catch.He was one of only a few guys with 100 targets to hit that mark and his talent level does not seem on par with them. Also, if the Jags can keep games closer they will pass less and they have more options now. They brought in another rb to pound it out more.  For these reasons I see Hurns falling back into the 25-30 Wr spot.

2. Hopkins- His target numbers were insane. If they drop to a reasonable rate then that drops his overall stats. The running game will help them stay closer so he doesn't need insane 2nd halfs to bring the Texans back. I see Hopkins as bareley inside the top 10 of Wr's this year.  

Share yours and why. 

 
Freeman, not a fan of his size and his production tailed off a ton the latter part of the year, Coleman is likely better

Hilton/Lockett/Diggs, I dont get the love fest with these types of boom or bust wr, if i luck into one via the draft, ill ride the wave and flip him, not a fan of 3 or 30pt guys

Carlos Hyde, dude has done literally nothing, people keep drafting him like he has all the upside in the world

 
Ezekiel Elliot. 

I'm not down on him, I'm down on him compared to the FF community. DMC had a decent year and Alf isn't just a practice dummy. I still don't trust the Dallas D to let them be totally run heavy. Plus, a healthy Romo and Dez could put up a large chunk of their scores. The run game will still produce but it doesn't need to. This idea goes both ways since passing opens up the run, of course. 

To be clear, I'm not saying he is going to be bad. I can see 200 carries at 5 ypc and 6 TDs rushing. Plus, 25 catches at 10 ypc and a TD. 1250/7 combined is a nice stat line for a rookie. Also, after looking at posts from other threads, I don't want to rain on anyone's excitement. It's more fun to be excited for players. I just don't think the Cowboys need to give Zeke a high volume workload. 

 
Pwingles said:
Freeman, not a fan of his size and his production tailed off a ton the latter part of the year, Coleman is likely better

Hilton/Lockett/Diggs, I dont get the love fest with these types of boom or bust wr, if i luck into one via the draft, ill ride the wave and flip him, not a fan of 3 or 30pt guys

Carlos Hyde, dude has done literally nothing, people keep drafting him like he has all the upside in the world
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I love Hilton man, he's not a boom bust guy IMO. He certainly can be a burner for the deep ball but he's all over the field and a reliable target for Luck. I would agree with Diggs though.

For me this season, compared to where they are being drafted, I'm not a huge fan of Amari Cooper, Jarvis Landry, or Greg Olsen.

 
Pwingles said:
Freeman, not a fan of his size and his production tailed off a ton the latter part of the year, Coleman is likely better

Hilton/Lockett/Diggs, I dont get the love fest with these types of boom or bust wr, if i luck into one via the draft, ill ride the wave and flip him, not a fan of 3 or 30pt guys

Carlos Hyde, dude has done literally nothing, people keep drafting him like he has all the upside in the world
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Disagree with all 5 of those but hey, we all have opinions.

 
pbandy1 said:
I love Hilton man, he's not a boom bust guy IMO. He certainly can be a burner for the deep ball but he's all over the field and a reliable target for Luck. I would agree with Diggs though.

For me this season, compared to where they are being drafted, I'm not a huge fan of Amari Cooper, Jarvis Landry, or Greg Olsen.
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Agree on Cooper & Landry.

I like Cooper, a lot, but I don't see him as a top 5-10 WR at the moment. Maybe he grows into it, but the prices being paid now are just too high.

I think Landry is going to see a decent drop this year, with Parker, Caroo & Cameron all taking away targets in the new offense.  Tannehill was locked onto Landry last year & I think Gase will help him spread it out better.

Agree with an earlier poster on Freeman also. He is solid but once he quit getting into the end zone at that obscene level he was just another RB 1, instead of the #1 RB. With Coleman back at full strength we should see some type of committee making Freeman a RB 2.

 
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Hurns is a big one for me.  If defense and running game improve the pie is going to shrink. I believe Julius is going to heavily increase his percentage of the pie and heaven forbid he can be healthy I think Lee eats into it as well. So smaller pie in general with more other players increasing their percentage share. I see less targets, less TD's and not easy to maintain that YPC either. 

Landry-I've got him down as a 20-25% drop in production

Rawls- I will first say I think he's the starting IF healthy, not really worried about CMIKE or one of the RB's they drafted. But he's going in the third round of drafts which is about where I'd put him assuming he's healthy but it's as if his current health issue is not built into the price.

 
mcd said:
Agree on Cooper & Landry.

I like Cooper, a lot, but I don't see him as a top 5-10 WR at the moment. Maybe he grows into it, but the prices being paid now are just too high.

I think Landry is going to see a decent drop this year, with Parker, Caroo & Cameron all taking away targets in the new offense.  Tannehill was locked onto Landry last year & I think Gase will help him spread it out better.

Agree with an earlier poster on Freeman also. He is solid but once he quit getting into the end zone at that obscene level he was just another RB 1, instead of the #1 RB. With Coleman back at full strength we should see some type of committee making Freeman a RB 2.
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I still like Freeman. He was still very productive in terms of carries / targets / yardage in the second half but he just didn't have the obscene amount of TDs he had like in the first half of the season.

 
mcd said:
Agree with an earlier poster on Freeman also. He is solid but once he quit getting into the end zone at that obscene level he was just another RB 1, instead of the #1 RB. With Coleman back at full strength we should see some type of committee making Freeman a RB 2.
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Seems to be a popular opinion on Freeman fading and a healthy Coleman making it a bit of committee but based on last years usage I have a hard time buying into either. 

The 5 games to end the season after Freeman came back from his concussion he was the #4 scoring RB in fantasy, this with two of his games against Carolina. His heavy TD production dried up after week 6. From that point forward he was the #7 RB in fantasy in average points per game. But he also barely played in the concussion game and got put out with 4 fantasy points. If you remove that game he would have ended up as #3 from week 7 to rest of season in average points per game, which would have been exactly 18 fantasy points per game despite only scoring 4 TD's in those 8 games. So to me not a TD dependent by any means.

With respect to a healthy Coleman making it more of a committee, we sure saw zero signs of that last year. Even long after he returned from his rib injury he only got more than 13 snaps in two games, the two games Freeman got hurt or did not play. I don't think it was health related at all but fumbling issues and lack of versatility in the passing game. 

I do think Freeman just had the best fantasy season of his career but he's not getting drafted with those expectations either, don't know anyone who thinks he's about to put up 20+ again but I think 17-18 fantasy points a game is very much in his grasp and to me that makes him worth where he's going in drafts.

 
menobrown said:
Seems to be a popular opinion on Freeman fading and a healthy Coleman making it a bit of committee but based on last years usage I have a hard time buying into either. 

The 5 games to end the season after Freeman came back from his concussion he was the #4 scoring RB in fantasy, this with two of his games against Carolina. His heavy TD production dried up after week 6. From that point forward he was the #7 RB in fantasy in average points per game. But he also barely played in the concussion game and got put out with 4 fantasy points. If you remove that game he would have ended up as #3 from week 7 to rest of season in average points per game, which would have been exactly 18 fantasy points per game despite only scoring 4 TD's in those 8 games. So to me not a TD dependent by any means.

With respect to a healthy Coleman making it more of a committee, we sure saw zero signs of that last year. Even long after he returned from his rib injury he only got more than 13 snaps in two games, the two games Freeman got hurt or did not play. I don't think it was health related at all but fumbling issues and lack of versatility in the passing game. 

I do think Freeman just had the best fantasy season of his career but he's not getting drafted with those expectations either, don't know anyone who thinks he's about to put up 20+ again but I think 17-18 fantasy points a game is very much in his grasp and to me that makes him worth where he's going in drafts.
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Yeah, when I mention committee, I think along the lines of 60/40 or 65/35 split. I still expect Freeman to be the top guy. It's just that from week 7-17 (removing his injury week) he averaged 24.5 touches a game, that's kind of Peterson numbers, and he's a smallish RB. His numbers were almost totally from volume by that point. If Coleman gets in every 3rd series or so it will really hurt Freemans numbers.

Plus, I'm looking from the view when he is offered to me, it is always started with, "He was the #1 RB last year, make me a realistic offer."

 
Pwingles said:
Hilton/Lockett/Diggs, I dont get the love fest with these types of boom or bust wr, if i luck into one via the draft, ill ride the wave and flip him, not a fan of 3 or 30pt guys
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As others have said, I don't think Hilton is boom/bust. He's the #1 target in a prolific passing offense. I can buy if people think that Moncrief and maybe Dorsett eat into his numbers a bit though.

I agree on Lockett - things could change in year 2, but I think he's a better NFL than fantasy player.

As for Diggs, I don't think too many people are high on him after Treadwell was drafted.

In terms of guys not mentioned, I'm a bit cooler on Ladarius Green than most - and I own him.

 
Beat me to L Green, I haven't seen anything to say he will be good in PIT.  SD moved on from him instead of Gates says a lot IMO.

 
Kevin White. Dude is being drafted crazy high for a guy who was considered raw coming out of college and hasn't played a snap yet.

 
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Edelman for me. I don't think people quite understand how much of a role Martellus Bennett is going to play. Edelman will still have value but I think his floor plummets this year.  

 
Dion Lewis.

He has only been active in 39% of his possible games in his 5 year career and half of those games were in 2011.

According to fantasypros Lewis is the 40th player overall in PPR leagues.

I remember when Shane Vereen was being drafted similarly high yet failed to live up to expectations.

Lewis was targeted 50 times in the 7 games he played, which is 7.2 targets/game. He had 3 games with 9, 9 and 11 targets which is excellent upside. If you extrapolated that over a 16 game season it would be 114 targets. He had a 72% catch rate last season which is slightly below average for a RB and could be higher in 2016. For the sake of completing the projection however that is what I will use, so that would be 82 receptions. He has a career ypc of 10.5 so this would be 861 receiving yards.

Lewis's rushing attempts and yards steadily declined each week to a point where he was barely being used as a runner.. He had 15 rushing attempts in week 1 but never had more than 8 after this. He had 49 rushing attempts in 7 games which is 7 rushing attempts/game. Over 16 games this would be 112 rushing attempts. I would expect something more like 5 rushing attempts/game based on how they used him after week 1. That would be 80 rushing attempts. He has a career ypc of 4.8 so this would be 384 rushing yards.

This would be 1245 combined yards, 78 combined yards/game and 5 receptions/game. This makes for a pretty consistent 12.8 points/game with some upside if he scores or has slightly more targets in one game compared to normal.

With Lewis out James White had 44 targets over 8 games which is 5.5 targets/game. They didn't throw to him quite as much as Lewis but he still had a 13 target game against the Eagles, similar to Lewis's big target games against Buffalo, Dallas and Miami. The game flow from the Patriots can be unpredictable, however the trend seems to be throwing more against teams they don't really want to run on or against really bad defenses who are likely letting the Patriots have that all game while trying to stop other parts of their offense, like Gronk.

I understand the excitement about this guy. At the same time, how many games can you expect him to play? If you do factor that injury risk into your decision, do you feel comfortable with using a early 4th round pick on a player who might not give you more than 6.25 games? Will those games be good enough from a opportunity and PPG basis?

Maybe. I am always nervous about extrapolating a small sample size however, and looking at his opportunities, especially the rushing attempts, it seemed to be something they were trying to manage somewhat but still didn't keep him healthy.

I suppose if you plan to get White also that can mitigate the risk of Lewis being injured again and make that early pick worth it. I can also see a lot of owners being disappointed in such a high investment if the volume isn't there due to game script or other ancillary reasons.

eta - James White is going at pick 232  :D  after some other really questionable players. This suggests that people think Dion Lewis is a very durable player.

 
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Off the top of my head:

Hopkins. Target pace was insane early 2015. As the D returned to the form we expected, he went from elite to very good. I think he is just very good, but not worth a top 8 pick which is where he is often going. 

Amari Cooper. I love the talent and opportunity, but going ahead of Keenan Allen, Brandon Marshall, etc. is very high for a guy with such a limited track record. 

 
RG3, DeMarco Murray , Edelman, J. Charles, Freeman

 Doug Martin -was last year's comeback simply because it was a contract year for him? I'm betting it is and he like returns to the 800 yard RB scrap heap.

Andrew Luck - I just dont get the love for an INT/turnover  machine like Luck. Good but not great Qb who never really gets over the hump - not unlike Eli Manni g , another good not great Qb who statistically just doesnt finish nearly as high as his ADP would sugeat.in other words Luck and Eli both get drafted a couple rounds before they really should, especially when you consider they're carbon copies of Philip Rivers who can be drafted many rounds later and might be a better fantasy Qb anyways..

Any Vikings offensive player not named Adrian Peterson.just stop.Bridgewater and Diggs? Seriously? 

Eddie Lacy, Andy Dalton, J. Hill OR Gio Bernard

Landry, Tannehill, R. Fitzpatrick if he signs.he wont even sniff those 2015 stats again. 

Romo - are we really banking on an oft-injured older QB playing a full 16 game season again?? He has missed 27 games over the past 8 seasons and his pass yards/gm have gone from 302 ypg in 2012 down to 221 in 2015.in each of the past 4 seasons his passing yards/gm have steadily declined.whats next ,190 yards/gm? 

 
 There is a bunch of people mentioning Amari Cooper in this thread.

 Now, I don't know if he is top 5WR material just yet (mostly because of situation, certainly its not a lack of talent) but last year he finished as WR26. I'm not considering ties, I just went down the list.

http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/leaders?&seasonTotals=true&seasonId=2015&slotCategoryId=4

 As of right now on Fantasy Pros he is currently going off the board as WR#11.

 Considering as he was gimpy several games last year, and it was even obvious in a couple, I think WR11 is probably close.

 I don't know if he is ready to be top 5 like I alluded to above, but I would think if he stays healthy then he has an excellent chance at WR15 or better.

 I think he might be drafted "slightly aggressively", but I don't think its out of line by any means.

 TZM

 
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pbandy1 said:
I love Hilton man, he's not a boom bust guy IMO. He certainly can be a burner for the deep ball but he's all over the field and a reliable target for Luck. I would agree with Diggs though.

For me this season, compared to where they are being drafted, I'm not a huge fan of Amari Cooper, Jarvis Landry, or Greg Olsen.
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Agree with Hilton.  THink the poster has a recent bias on him. With Luck healthy, Hilton is more like a 12 or 30 type guy each week. He commands a lot of attention from Luck and he is the exact type of high floor, crazy ceiling guy you want to gamble on each week.

 
Biabreakable said:
Dion Lewis.

He has only been active in 39% of his possible games in his 5 year career and half of those games were in 2011.

According to fantasypros Lewis is the 40th player overall in PPR leagues.

I remember when Shane Vereen was being drafted similarly high yet failed to live up to expectations.

Lewis was targeted 50 times in the 7 games he played, which is 7.2 targets/game. He had 3 games with 9, 9 and 11 targets which is excellent upside. If you extrapolated that over a 16 game season it would be 114 targets. He had a 72% catch rate last season which is slightly below average for a RB and could be higher in 2016. For the sake of completing the projection however that is what I will use, so that would be 82 receptions. He has a career ypc of 10.5 so this would be 861 receiving yards.

Lewis's rushing attempts and yards steadily declined each week to a point where he was barely being used as a runner.. He had 15 rushing attempts in week 1 but never had more than 8 after this. He had 49 rushing attempts in 7 games which is 7 rushing attempts/game. Over 16 games this would be 112 rushing attempts. I would expect something more like 5 rushing attempts/game based on how they used him after week 1. That would be 80 rushing attempts. He has a career ypc of 4.8 so this would be 384 rushing yards.

This would be 1245 combined yards, 78 combined yards/game and 5 receptions/game. This makes for a pretty consistent 12.8 points/game with some upside if he scores or has slightly more targets in one game compared to normal.

With Lewis out James White had 44 targets over 8 games which is 5.5 targets/game. They didn't throw to him quite as much as Lewis but he still had a 13 target game against the Eagles, similar to Lewis's big target games against Buffalo, Dallas and Miami. The game flow from the Patriots can be unpredictable, however the trend seems to be throwing more against teams they don't really want to run on or against really bad defenses who are likely letting the Patriots have that all game while trying to stop other parts of their offense, like Gronk.

I understand the excitement about this guy. At the same time, how many games can you expect him to play? If you do factor that injury risk into your decision, do you feel comfortable with using a early 4th round pick on a player who might not give you more than 6.25 games? Will those games be good enough from a opportunity and PPG basis?

Maybe. I am always nervous about extrapolating a small sample size however, and looking at his opportunities, especially the rushing attempts, it seemed to be something they were trying to manage somewhat but still didn't keep him healthy.

I suppose if you plan to get White also that can mitigate the risk of Lewis being injured again and make that early pick worth it. I can also see a lot of owners being disappointed in such a high investment if the volume isn't there due to game script or other ancillary reasons.

eta - James White is going at pick 232  :D  after some other really questionable players. This suggests that people think Dion Lewis is a very durable player.
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I think this is one where you just have to use the eye ball test and watch a lot of the Patriots games to understand. This team was on an entirely different level with Lewis and he brings something to them they can't match.  When WHite played the team was different. They were killed by injuries by that point and the season had worn on. 

I won't try to dig and refine a bunch of numbers to make my point. I'll just say I know that dude Lewis was incredibly valuable to the real world Patriots and to to PPR fantasy leagues an since any player can get hurt at any time and NO notable RB has been healthy enough to play 25-30 straight games (they ALL miss time), I like Lewis with no hesitation. He's going to put up points and there is nothing in a defense's game plan that can really limit him from getting points in a ppr format.  Just my opinion but there really is nothing to be down on with Lewis.

 
Ladarius Green - The Steelers' offense runs through the WRs. Heath Miller was only ever average in that offense and he was at least as good as Green.

Keenan Allen - I get that it's exciting when you project his numbers, but you always have to do that. He fell in the draft because of injuries and still hasn't played all 16 games.

Lesean McCoy - Don't know if people are that high on him anymore but he's not young anymore and the TD numbers might not ever return.

Gio Bernard - I love his skills but hate his inconsistency (not of effort, but scoring)

Emmanuel Sanders - He's the #2 in a ball control offense that's currently quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Ladarius Green - The Steelers' offense runs through the WRs. Heath Miller was only ever average in that offense and he was at least as good as Green.

Keenan Allen - I get that it's exciting when you project his numbers, but you always have to do that. He fell in the draft because of injuries and still hasn't played all 16 games.

Lesean McCoy - Don't know if people are that high on him anymore but he's not young anymore and the TD numbers might not ever return.

Gio Bernard - I love his skills but hate his inconsistency (not of effort, but scoring)

Emmanuel Sanders - He's the #2 in a ball control offense that's currently quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez.
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I think Shady might actually be value this year. He was hurt going in last year and then hurt during the year and, to me, it really looked like one of those deals where you just knew the whole year was a little off because he needed to be there to get going and learning and then he wasn't and then he wasn't 100%.

Now, a year later, he should know what the Bills want to do. The Bills should have a very good assessment on what he can do for them.  Just all around more knowledge and more comfortable.  So, if he can play healthy, I really see no reason why he can't be at 12 TDs or so this year. They SHOULD make that part of what they want to do, especially with the defense still coming together with 3 new starters (should try to control the clock some), continued questions at QB, continued injuries by their best WR. 

To me, it seems a good recipe where it would be no surprise if Shady is a 1450/12TD kind of guy with some receptions, yards, maybe a td or 2.  I don't think it has a thing to do with Shady "not being young" anymore or a skills issue. I think he and the Bills just need to be fortunate enough for their game plans and health to come together.

 
Borden said:
Ezekiel Elliot. 

I'm not down on him, I'm down on him compared to the FF community. DMC had a decent year and Alf isn't just a practice dummy. I still don't trust the Dallas D to let them be totally run heavy. Plus, a healthy Romo and Dez could put up a large chunk of their scores. The run game will still produce but it doesn't need to. This idea goes both ways since passing opens up the run, of course. 

To be clear, I'm not saying he is going to be bad. I can see 200 carries at 5 ypc and 6 TDs rushing. Plus, 25 catches at 10 ypc and a TD. 1250/7 combined is a nice stat line for a rookie. Also, after looking at posts from other threads, I don't want to rain on anyone's excitement. It's more fun to be excited for players. I just don't think the Cowboys need to give Zeke a high volume workload. 
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Agreed. I am not down on Elliot either but I just am not expecting the same kind of production as most others seem to. Based on the offers I have seen in the thread talking about trading for the #1 spot in rookie drafts and what people have/are turning down- he basically needs to have a 2K yard season with 15 TD's to justify some of this. He has all the talent in the world and he has a top notch OL but though the Cowboys will run more- they are not going to be a running only team and there are two capable backs that ought to get carries. Borden seems to be pretty close to my thinking in production though I would increase the catches as he is very capable receiver and I think the Cowboys will try to get him the ball that way a bit more.

 
Pastor said:
What player or players are you down on more than others and why?  

The Allen Hurns thread got me thinking about this. I will start-

1. Hurns- I don't think he will continue to avg 16.1 per catch.He was one of only a few guys with 100 targets to hit that mark and his talent level does not seem on par with them. Also, if the Jags can keep games closer they will pass less and they have more options now. They brought in another rb to pound it out more.  For these reasons I see Hurns falling back into the 25-30 Wr spot.

2. Hopkins- His target numbers were insane. If they drop to a reasonable rate then that drops his overall stats. The running game will help them stay closer so he doesn't need insane 2nd halfs to bring the Texans back. I see Hopkins as bareley inside the top 10 of Wr's this year.  

Share yours and why. 
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I'll give my list in a second, but I'd like to throw this out there about Hurns... First off, I agree there will be fewer targets to go around and I expect Bortles to regress in TDs (last year they had 35 passing TDs and only 3 RB rushing TDs). However, keep in mind that Hurns was injured last year and played through a sports hernia. He also missed a full game. Also of note, a regression is already being taken into account with his ADP. He finished WR14 and is being drafted as WR30. I think a healthy Hurns, even with a decline in targets, will still easily outperform his ADP.

Ten players I'm down on:

1. Hopkins - totally agree with your pick here. I've never been a huge fan. He runs great routes and has great hands, but he needs a huge target volume against prevent defenses to be a FF WR1. If the Texans games are closer, he's not going to come anywhere near his ADP.

2. Rawls - he's coming off the board way too high (RB12) for a guy who only played meaningful snaps in 6 extremely favorable games. As an added bonus, he's got an ambiguous injury that might keep him out of training camp and preseason while potentially more talented RBs will be getting snaps with the first team.

3. Allen Robinson - I was quite high on him last year, but he's swung too far. If Hurns is going to regress, so will Robinson. But people seem to think they play on different teams as his ADP hasn't taken a hit at all. He's being drafted at his ceiling.

4. David Johnson - there are indications he'll still be splitting time with Chris Johnson and he's not exactly proven over a long duration. Too much risk for RB3 overall for me.

5. Demaryius Thomas - can't believe he's got an ADP of WR13. He played like crap last year and has a very questionable QB situation coming up.

6. Reed - injuries and competition for targets. I wouldn't touch him near his ADP (TE2).

7. Matt Jones - does not look like a good player. RB21 is too much for a guy coming off 3.4 ypc. Will gamble on Marshall at the end of a lot of drafts.

8. Langford - Very similar to Matt Jones but with more competition. Does not belong at RB22. I'll be watching Howard closely, but Fox probably won't let him play much.

9. Ajayi - excellent situation, but injury/durability questions and the fact that he's totally unproven are enough to scare me away from him at RB23. Would rather have a proven talent like Ryan Mathews for the same or cheaper price.

10. Brandin Cooks - he's just not that versatile and will lose targets to Fleener and Mike Thomas. Too pricey at WR14.

 
FF Ninja said:
5. Demaryius Thomas - can't believe he's got an ADP of WR13. He played like crap last year and has a very questionable QB situation coming up.
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Demaryius definitely had a bad year last season (not statistically).  That said, I don't quite get the logic behind people saying this year will be worse because of the QB situation.  Everyone saw Peyton Manning last year, no?  I just can't imagine whomever Denver rolls out this year can be any worse than Manning was last year.  He couldn't throw the ball more than 20 yards.

 
SayWhat? said:
Demaryius definitely had a bad year last season (not statistically).  That said, I don't quite get the logic behind people saying this year will be worse because of the QB situation.  Everyone saw Peyton Manning last year, no?  I just can't imagine whomever Denver rolls out this year can be any worse than Manning was last year.  He couldn't throw the ball more than 20 yards.
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I think people who just look at the stats are who are propping up his ADP. If he plays like he did last year and doesn't get a crazy amount of targets (177 last year) then he's not going to justify his ADP. I mean, he finished WR13 last year (0ppr) and is being drafted WR13 this year (0ppr).

And you are right, Peyton wasn't very good last year, but as a team, the Denver QB ranked 22nd in fantasy points. You think they'll be better than that this year? I know it isn't a really high bar, but I expect them to be in the bottom 3rd of the league this year. So you gotta expect the QB to be better than that and/or for Thomas to rank 4th in targets again for him to justify his ADP. Personally, I don't feel confident in either so Thomas is an easy pass for me.

 
Have to agree with Ninja on DT. I'm down on the Denver offense pretty much all around (although I have hopes for Booker).

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Have to agree with Ninja on DT. I'm down on the Denver offense pretty much all around (although I have hopes for Booker).
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If Kubiak goes with a bellcow (as I think is his preference) they will have a very nice season, so I've been optimistic about CJA at RB14. You really think Booker has a chance to steal his job or at least make it a RBBC? He's a rookie and they just paid CJA. I like Booker as a decent mid-season or year 2 "post-hype" buy, but have a hard time getting excited about him in redraft.

 
CJA bounced back and forth with Hillman until later in the season. They paid him well but not enough to prevent his benching if warranted.

You're right he'll be the guy early this season but I just see his hold on the job as shaky at very best. I wouldn't take Booker early either but if I could stash him for a late season run, I'd think about it.

 
FF Ninja said:
And you are right, Peyton wasn't very good last year, but as a team, the Denver QB ranked 22nd in fantasy points. You think they'll be better than that this year? I know it isn't a really high bar, but I expect them to be in the bottom 3rd of the league this year. So you gotta expect the QB to be better than that and/or for Thomas to rank 4th in targets again for him to justify his ADP. Personally, I don't feel confident in either so Thomas is an easy pass for me.
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Or a third route, that Thomas rebounds and proves his performance last season was an aberration.  

Regarding his targets, I don't see any way barring injury that they drop below 160 on the season.  

And no, I don't expect much deviation for Denver QB's from 22nd in fantasy points. But I do think that's about as bad as it can get so again,that wouldn't worry me as the departure of (the name) Manning seems to be bothering some people.

 
SayWhat? said:
Or a third route, that Thomas rebounds and proves his performance last season was an aberration.  

Regarding his targets, I don't see any way barring injury that they drop below 160 on the season.  

And no, I don't expect much deviation for Denver QB's from 22nd in fantasy points. But I do think that's about as bad as it can get so again,that wouldn't worry me as the departure of (the name) Manning seems to be bothering some people.
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True on the third option. Hard to count on a rebound when drafting someone that high. I'd rather gamble on health (Keenan Allen) than a skills rebound, but that's just personal preference.

Really? You think 160 is his floor? I'm actually pretty comfortable taking the under on 160 this year, assuming 16 games played. I think Kubiak will focus on the running game this year. He loves to play conservative football.

QB22 is as bad as it can get?! Have you seen that QB stable? I think QB22 is near their ceiling.

I guess you are just a lot more optimistic about that whole situation than me, which is fine.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
CJA bounced back and forth with Hillman until later in the season. They paid him well but not enough to prevent his benching if warranted.

You're right he'll be the guy early this season but I just see his hold on the job as shaky at very best. I wouldn't take Booker early either but if I could stash him for a late season run, I'd think about it.
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't CJA battling injury to begin the season? He did split carries with Hillman, but he was clearly the better back for the last 8 games or so.

 
Some of these seem to be missing the "compared to the FF community" part.

Guys like Hurns, Diggs, Freeman I would say that the FF community as a whole is already down on, at least relative to their finishes last year (for Hurns/Freeman).  For any of those guys if you go into their thread here on FBG you'll find 5 people arguing against them for every person arguing in favor of them, and for Hurns/Freeman their ADP is already fairly significantly lower than their finish last year.

When I saw the thread title I was actually thinking in my head that if there was a "players that you're high on relative to the FF community" thread I would be listing Hurns in it.  Thinking he'll be a solid low-end WR2 puts me in the "high" camp compared to most.  How much lower can you really get than the FF community's general feel that a 24 year old WR coming off a top 15 season in an up and coming offense with a good young QB should be ranked as a low end WR3?

The people that finished last year in the range of where Hurns is ranked going into this year were Travis Benjamin, James Jones, Pierre Garcon, Ted Ginn, and Reuben Randle.  If you're saying that you're down on Hurns relative to the FF community then you're saying that you think putting him into that bucket is too high.

 
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Coby Fleener:  I might very well be wrong about this one.  There are a lot of reasons why this will work out.  But I do not think he is a good football player, he moves like he has metal joints, and there are more dynamic players on that team to handle the intermediate stuff.  I think his game will be reliant on TDs. 

Lamar Miller:  I never saw special with him, I think he just looked special compared to every other player on the Miami offense.  

Dez Bryant:  In a redraft, there are a lot of people behind him that I would take over him.  Cooper, Green, Allen.  He gets banged up a lot, the QB gets banged up a lot.....I dunno.  Safer picks elsewhere.  

Andre Luck:  #2 QB?  Yeah?  Right side of O-line is a mess, no running backs, and he played not great last year.  Colts might waste this guys career.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
"Better than Hillman" doesn't inspire much confidence in me. ;)

Neither does two 100 yard games, only four games where he scored, and one multiple TD game.

He's just not my guy.
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True, true, but hard to bust on a guy for "only" two 100 yard games when he had zero games with more than 15 carries. You are pretty much requiring a guy to put up 7+ ypc to reach 100 yards when you only give him 12-15 carries per game (only had 7 games with 12-15 carries).

He started the season injured, IIRC, and came out of the gate with 67 carries for 180 yards (2.7 ypc). In his next 9 games he managed 85-540-5 (6.4 ypc). Even with that dismal 6 games, he's got a career ypc of 4.8 on 338 carries. Makes me think the potential is there. I'd easily rather have him than Rawls (RB12) or Forte (RB16). I don't know why, but I'm just not feeling McCoy (RB13) that much, so CJA edges him. Not sure about him vs. Hyde. I'm not a big Hyde fan, but I believe in the Kelly system.

 
barackdhouse said:
Edelman for me. I don't think people quite understand how much of a role Martellus Bennett is going to play. Edelman will still have value but I think his floor plummets this year.  
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edelman is brady's blanky,  are you suggesting the patriots are drastically going to alter their offense to accomodate their 2nd TE?  my concerns with edelman are age and durability, but if he;s active he'll produce excellent ppr scoring for you

also, i was very surprised to see carlos hyde's name in here.  What he did last year in that horsepoop offense was impressive to me.  he passes the eye test.  i'm excited for his potential this year, i think of the rb's outside the top 10 rankings right now he has the highest upside 

 
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Austin Seferian-Jenkins, he's going too high. He's going TE-13 after june 1 in MFL.  :loco:

 
Regarding D. Thomas - I agree his situation is iffy at QB, but I also agree that it can't be worse than last year. And, he is one of three WR's in the history of the NFL to record at least 90 receptions and 1300 yards in four consecutive seasons - Rice and Harrison being the other two. So he is pretty darn consistent and stays healthy (hasn't missed a game in four years). If he doesn't drop all those passes last year, he would have finished top 10 easily. 

So I'm cautiously optimistic that he continues to put up good numbers, though I completely understand there are risks too.

 
Shutout said:
I think this is one where you just have to use the eye ball test and watch a lot of the Patriots games to understand. This team was on an entirely different level with Lewis and he brings something to them they can't match.  When WHite played the team was different. They were killed by injuries by that point and the season had worn on. 

I won't try to dig and refine a bunch of numbers to make my point. I'll just say I know that dude Lewis was incredibly valuable to the real world Patriots and to to PPR fantasy leagues an since any player can get hurt at any time and NO notable RB has been healthy enough to play 25-30 straight games (they ALL miss time), I like Lewis with no hesitation. He's going to put up points and there is nothing in a defense's game plan that can really limit him from getting points in a ppr format.  Just my opinion but there really is nothing to be down on with Lewis.
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Well I heard pretty much the same reasoning given for Shane Vereen before.

I didn't expect people to agree with me. That is the point of the thread.

 
FF Ninja said:
I'll give my list in a second, but I'd like to throw this out there about Hurns... First off, I agree there will be fewer targets to go around and I expect Bortles to regress in TDs (last year they had 35 passing TDs and only 3 RB rushing TDs). However, keep in mind that Hurns was injured last year and played through a sports hernia. He also missed a full game. Also of note, a regression is already being taken into account with his ADP. He finished WR14 and is being drafted as WR30. I think a healthy Hurns, even with a decline in targets, will still easily outperform his ADP.
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That is a good point about Hurns ADP. I only do auctions and was basing it off what he was going in dynasty auctions and trades. Obviously dynastys are a little different, but he has been valued well more than wr 30. If that is where he is going then he is a good pick. 

 
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FF Ninja said:
1. Hopkins - totally agree with your pick here. I've never been a huge fan. He runs great routes and has great hands, but he needs a huge target volume against prevent defenses to be a FF WR1. If the Texans games are closer, he's not going to come anywhere near his ADP.
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I don't know, I mean he was WR14 in total points and WR18 in average PPG in 2014 on just 127 targets and that was as a second year player and I'm assuming he's become a better player.

Also a lot of people like to knock him for his concussion history and he's not even missed a game.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Some of these seem to be missing the "compared to the FF community" part.

Guys like Hurns, Diggs, Freeman I would say that the FF community as a whole is already down on, at least relative to their finishes last year (for Hurns/Freeman).  For any of those guys if you go into their thread here on FBG you'll find 5 people arguing against them for every person arguing in favor of them, and for Hurns/Freeman their ADP is already
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Some but not all. I've seen Hurns traded this off-season for a 2017#1 and #2(both projected as high top 6 picks) and a high projected 2017#1 in another league. I dealt him in package with Melvin Gordon to get AJ Green(same league he got flipped the next day for the #1 and #2). Some of us see regression, some people just see a second year player and assume he's going to keep producing.

In FFPC drafts I've noticed Freeman usually going around RB5 and a second round pick. To me his regression is baked into that price, some people don't think he's worth looking at for several rounds later so still disagreement on his value.

As for Diggs, I'm still a big fan, just not of his QB or the offense he's in so not really big on his ability to produce but I still think he finishes better than how he finished last year, which was unusable. I also think he's better than Treadwell so you have that and I'm sure I'm a man on lonely island with that belief.

 
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menobrown said:
As for Diggs, I'm still a big fan, just not of his QB or the offense he's in so not really big on his ability or produce but I still think he finishes better than how he finished last year, which was unusable. I also think he's better than Treadwell so you have that and I'm sure I'm a man on lonely island with that belief.
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I was listening to the High Stakes podcast the other day and their most recent episode they had some winners from 2015 on talking about their strategy and their team assembled last season. These guys co-own the team, one is a Vikings fan and the other a Giants fan.

The Vikings fan thinks Diggs can be a top 15 WR in FF in 2016.  :D

While I think that is a bit  :homer:  I can see Diggs being the best WR from the Vikings for FF in 2016. I wouldn't expect more than WR 3 type numbers, but it is possible that happens.

I would expect Treadwell to become their primary WR in 2017 if he isn't this season. If Diggs does outperform Treadwell this year, that will certainly be a debate next offseason.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
This is a good one.  If I'm not mistaken, the guy [Jordan Reed] is going on 6 consecutive years now with either concussion or hamstring injuries.
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guy is going into his fourth year.  missed a pair of games last year, weeks 5 and 6...and was pretty much excellent when he played....just sayin

 
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Biabreakable said:
Well I heard pretty much the same reasoning given for Shane Vereen before.

I didn't expect people to agree with me. That is the point of the thread.
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I really don't know what Shane Vereen has to do with this. THat's like saying since one Green Bay Wr (or 3) had great success then Devante Adams will too.  It's different players on different teams.  Vereen is not Lewis. 

I agree, we disagree. Was just offering info to reconsider if anyone would like to but I honestly don't expect people to. There are certain players that I think just get argued one side or the other forever, regardless of the facts that get in the way. Nobody ever believes that some UDFA named Arian Foster will actually be a factor.  Some people said the same about Lewis last year. SOme people thought TRICH was the second coming.  We all just get these ideas and notions in our heads.

 
SayWhat? said:
Demaryius definitely had a bad year last season (not statistically).  That said, I don't quite get the logic behind people saying this year will be worse because of the QB situation.  Everyone saw Peyton Manning last year, no?  I just can't imagine whomever Denver rolls out this year can be any worse than Manning was last year.  He couldn't throw the ball more than 20 yards.
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YOu have to look at the bigger picture when it comes to things like this. Sure, Manning was not "Manning" and everyone pretty easily gravitates to "he was horrible" or one of the worst QBs in the league last year but it is the intangibles that make up the whole. It is the PRESENSE of Peyton Manning that Sanchez doesn't have that will make the difference. A guy like Manning last year may not have been able to make this throw or that one but he could still intellectually pick you apart.  He had the confidence and trust of his entire team and little things like that are what make teams get the cheap first downs on a 3rd and 4 for offsides or helps players not quit on a play (or a game) because it's Peyton Manning and he won't let you quit.  You can quit or slack or give up on Sanchez. You never would on Manning.  You always had a chance.  In general, people across the team will try harder for Manning than Sanchez and its the little things that add up over a course of 16 games that might make the difference between 177 targets and, say, 149.  That extended drive. That benefit of the call. That cheap offsides.  That "Hey DT, we actually made it down to the 5. This is coming to you and we both know I'm going to put it exactly where it needs to be."

It's all the little things.  

 
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