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Wow. I would not take him over Hopkins but as a dynasty owner I'm loving your enthusiasm. He's a much safer bet than Dez.
I didn't think WR6 jumping WR4 and WR5 was noteworthy enough for me to mention, but I'd just like to say that I 100% agree with this. I like both AJ Green and Eifert. I expect both to receive an uptick in targets/game.
I get that Parker hasn't proven himself yet (only played half a season in his career thus far). But I'm having trouble with the idea that Mike Wallace is less risky, when he's played longer and sucked more. Seems very questionable that he'll post reliably weekly numbers, even with Flacco chucking it to him.
I actually didn't mean more risk relative to wallace, but more risk relative to the options I might pass on to take parker, such as fitzgerald or decker.
Not so much Bridgewater, but I am really into Diggs this season.
Ah, that makes perfect sense. And I agree Parker has more risk (and reward) than Decker, and more risk than Fitz. (I'd take Fitz over Parker easily in a redraft...I think there's a tendency on the part of dynasty players to let dynasty thinking slip into redraft rankings, hence Fitz is undervalued.)
It's just so rare for a Rookie TE to be relevant in fantasy football. Gronk was about the only exception.
With Decker being on my list in this topic, I'm curious what you think Parker's advantage over him is. Keep in mind Decker missed a whole game and was limited in a few others, but still put up 80/1027/12 on the season. Parker's got some pretty decent competition for targets. He'll be hard pressed to exceed Decker's 8.8 t/gm, although a higher YPR should help offset that. With Marshall getting older, there's opportunity for Decker to grab a few more targets.
If you never take the shot you'll never hit.
I guess it depends on how you define risk. If the risk is that I end up cutting my 5th WR / 14th round pick, that's negligible. That's near the point I'm taking fliers anyway in smaller leagues.
At his going price in terms of ADP, anyone taking him will have time.
Point of this and reverse thread was basically when your opinion is stronger one way or another versus the masses.So I respect you providing your opinion and I do like Hooper, not as much as I like his landing spot but he's a solid talent.Run It Up said:
Disagree on Henry for this season, unless Gates gets hurt and misses several games. On the three bolded items:
Even though I do think he'll do better this year than people think and a lot better if Gates is out this is what I meant. If you showed me the highest graded rookie TE in history and I knew he was a walk in starter I'd still not count on him in year one. It's a real simple rule I follow, never count on a rookie TE.
interesting.ratbast said:
Risk to me is purely the odds of success. That's why I used the phrase "opportunity-cost". I think that's what you're trying to say here. Wallace is riskier in that he's got a smaller chance of being your every week WR3 than Parker, but you're betting much less on him. The payout is roughly the same, but you're gambling a $5 chip with Wallace or a $25 chip with Parker. You and I are on the same page with Wallace, I think. And his odds just improved with Perriman getting injured again (although I was never that worried about Perriman). I worry that injury might vault Wallace's ADP/AAV up a bit.
I'm betting against Perriman and I doubt Smith is noteworthy after the achilles injury, so Aiken is a good pick. However, he was simply the last man standing last year. In the last 8 weeks of the season he had 83 targets for 50 receptions. Gotta be careful not to confuse volume with skill. Personally, I think Wallace is the play here as he's the better player and can take advantage of Flacco's arm. FWIW, Aiken is WR59 and Wallace is WR62 on the latest composite ADP (6/15). They will both almost certainly outproduce their ADPs, but I think Wallace has the higher upside. Maybe I'm wrong and they heavily utilize the ten TEs on their roster.
I do think they will utilize a lot more 2 and maybe 3 TE packages this year. For a couple reasons, mainly to keep the def honest at the LOS. if you have a 3 te set, you have more run blockers, and potential rec's, this also in a sense protects flacco some. Also, I think they will run or lean on Rb a bit more as i said before basically it helps protect flacco a bit, while also letting them use that play action, which is where flacco is best. Their WR are trash as a unit, so more TE makes a ton of sense if any of them can block even a little.
I'm good with the difference in terminology, we agree on the assessment.