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So Brexit is really going to happen on June 23rd? (1 Viewer)

Riversco

Footballguy
A late breaking poll shows big momentum for leaving the EU.  Oddsmakers are trying to catch up.  I read that if this happens, Scotland will leave the UK to stay in the EU.  Then you get a new UK flag with a green background instead of a blue one. That's about all I know.  

http://i.imgur.com/kCvcVvA.gif

http://www.newsweek.com/betting-odds-move-favor-brexit-leave-tops-poll-469262

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-leave-campaign-10-point-lead-remain-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-david-a7075131.html

Betting odds on a British vote to exit the European Union narrowed on Saturday after an opinion poll gave the "Leave" camp a double-digit lead over "Remain."

The implied probability of a vote to stay in the EU in a June 23 referendum fell to 70 percent from 78 percent earlier this week, according to odds supplied by bookmaker Betfair.

It was responding to the publication of an opinion poll by ORB for The Independent newspaper on Friday showing support for "Leave" on 55 percent, versus 45 percent for "Remain.
 
It's been building for awhile. Europe is in a bad spot economically and politically.
Yeah, I know UKIP had a big showing recently but the seriousness of Brexit just started filtering down to the news outlets I check frequently (namely, the FFA)

:bag over head:

 
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Yeah, I know UKIP had a big showing recently c buy the seriousness of Brexit just started filtering down to the news outlets I check frequently (namely, the FFA)

:bag over head:
The US does a #### job following international news, especially "boring" topics like politics and economics. Plus we have had our own very interesting few months of political events.

 
They should leave. The EU has gone mad and attempting to destroy themselves from within. 

Merkil is a mess

 
A late breaking poll shows big momentum for leaving the EU.  Oddsmakers are trying to catch up.  I read that if this happens, Scotland will leave the UK to stay in the EU.  Then you get a new UK flag with a green background instead of a blue one. That's about all I know.  

http://i.imgur.com/kCvcVvA.gif

http://www.newsweek.com/betting-odds-move-favor-brexit-leave-tops-poll-469262

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-leave-campaign-10-point-lead-remain-boris-johnson-nigel-farage-david-a7075131.html
Considering the Scotland referendum failed by a comfortable margin, I can't imagine them leaving over this.

 
Yeah, I know UKIP had a big showing recently but the seriousness of Brexit just started filtering down to the news outlets I check frequently (namely, the FFA)

:bag over head:
:lol: That's was I thought you were referring to in your first post.

 
Notes on Brexit



 

June 12, 2016 1:13 pmJune 12, 2016 1:13 pm
I guess it’s time to weigh in on an issue I have mostly been avoiding: Britain’s vote on whether to leave the EU, aka Brexit.

Not to keep you in suspense: if I had a vote, I’d vote “remain.” But I wouldn’t be as enthusiastic as I’d like – and if “remain” wins, as I hope it does, I’ll still feel a sense of dread about what the future holds.

Why? Some notes on the issue:

1.Conventional trade analysis says that unless Britain can make a deal that essentially preserves full access to the EU – which seems unlikely given what a “leave” vote would do to relations — Brexit would make Britain poorer, on a sustained basis, than it would otherwise have been. I’ve done my own back of the envelope calculation, and come up with a sustained 2 percent of GDP loss; this is in the same range as other calculations. The number isn’t at all a hard fact – it could be smaller, but it could also be bigger — but the direction is completely clear.

2.On top of these conventional losses, there’s the special issue of the City of London, which looms very large in the British economy thanks to huge exports of financial services to the rest of Europe. The City’s role, like that of other financial centers, rests on hard-to-model agglomeration economies. Would the frictions and extra costs of Brexit hurt the City sufficiently to undermine its role, at big cost to the UK? Nobody knows, but if so that could add a lot to the economic costs.

3.Pay no attention to claims that Britain, freed from EU rules, could achieve spectacular growth via deregulation. You say to-mah-to, I say voodoo, and it’s no better than the US version.

4.On the other hand, I would greatly discount claims about dramatic financial crisis or whatever. Maybe the pound would fall – but for a country that borrows in its own currency and has an excessive current account deficit, that’s a good thing.

5.It’s also true that the economic impact of Brexit would fall quite differently on different groups within Britain. The City and those whose incomes are tied to its fortunes would probably lose badly, but some regions of the country might actually benefit from a weaker pound.

6.Despite such distributional issues, the straight economics is pretty clearly on the side of Remain. Why, then, am I at all ambivalent? Because the EU is so dysfunctional, and seems utterly resistant to improvement.

7.The euro is the most obvious case: it was a mistake in the first place, and this mistake was greatly compounded by the handling of the post-2009 crisis. A big technical problem of adjustment after a sudden stop in capital flows was turned into a morality play requiring destructive austerity. And there is no hint outside the ECB that any of the major players have learned anything from the debacle.

8.But it’s not just the euro. The EU seems unable to come to grips with migration issues – not just the refugee crisis, but the interaction among extensive welfare states, large internal income disparities, and open borders. I’m sure anti-European forces are exaggerating the burden created for Britain by migrants from eastern Europe, but it’s a flash point to which the EU doesn’t seem able to respond.

9.So something has to give. I’d like to imagine that a close Brexit vote in favor of Remain would be a wake-up call – but there have been many such calls in recent years, and nothing seems to happen.

10.And yet, and yet – the European project has been a source of tremendous good in the world, and it’s still very important. The EU has historically been a key force, not just for increased trade, but for democratization. Even when it falls short, as it has when dealing with the rise of authoritarianism in Hungary and now Poland, the EU and its institutions are an important restraint. If Brexit greatly damages the European project, it would open the door to a lot of ugliness.

11.So I would vote Remain, but with some feelings of despair, because what I’d be voting to remain with is a system that desperately needs reform but shows little sign of reforming.

 
Considering the Scotland referendum failed by a comfortable margin, I can't imagine them leaving over this.
David Cameron made plenty of promises to keep Scotland in the UK. Once they stayed he abandoned most of them. Scotland, by a high percentage , is in favor of staying in the EU. The most dominant party in Scotalnd is the SNP.  Scottish National Party. Labor is in shambles there, the Tories havent been viable since Thatcher ruined Scotland in the 80s and the Lib Dems lost all favor once they joined with David Cameron. 

If Britain leaves the EU, it is 95% certain Scotland leaves the UK and joins the EU

 
David Cameron made plenty of promises to keep Scotland in the UK. Once they stayed he abandoned most of them. Scotland, by a high percentage , is in favor of staying in the EU. The most dominant party in Scotalnd is the SNP.  Scottish National Party. Labor is in shambles there, the Tories havent been viable since Thatcher ruined Scotland in the 80s and the Lib Dems lost all favor once they joined with David Cameron. 

If Britain leaves the EU, it is 95% certain Scotland leaves the UK and joins the EU
No.  That's way too high.  It's not even certain that the UK parliament would allow the Scots to hold a referendum on leaving again, but if they did, and it passed (somehow swinging ten points from just two years ago), it would have to be contingent on all sorts of promises and deals that the EU would have to make to Scotland, most of which can be matched by the rest of the UK.  The SNP also doesn't want a second referendum loss in such a short space of time; they would rather wait and see the Brexit outcome after a few years, then make another independence push, because there is no way a third vote will be allowed if two have failed in just a few years of one another. 

This is a scare tactic drummed up by anti-Brexit forces.  In fact, it seems likely that a Brexit vote is a bad thing for the SNP, because there will be massive pressure on them from their supporters and they are almost guaranteed not to be able to deliver. 

 
Its in David Cameron's interest to keep Scotland in the UK because Labor is too fragmented to win an election with the SNP and Labour fighting each other in UK elections.  If Scotland left, the SNP no longer exists in UK politics and Labor can win UK elections once more.

 
No.  That's way too high.  It's not even certain that the UK parliament would allow the Scots to hold a referendum on leaving again, but if they did, and it passed (somehow swinging ten points from just two years ago), it would have to be contingent on all sorts of promises and deals that the EU would have to make to Scotland, most of which can be matched by the rest of the UK.  The SNP also doesn't want a second referendum loss in such a short space of time; they would rather wait and see the Brexit outcome after a few years, then make another independence push, because there is no way a third vote will be allowed if two have failed in just a few years of one another. 

This is a scare tactic drummed up by anti-Brexit forces.  In fact, it seems likely that a Brexit vote is a bad thing for the SNP, because there will be massive pressure on them from their supporters and they are almost guaranteed not to be able to deliver. 
Maybe the 95% thing was a bit too high and there are definite logistical hurdles to Scotland getting another referendum vote and then an Eu vote, but the SNP couldnt have a clearer platform. Scottish National Party. 

Their number 1 platform item has been to become an independent Scotland. This is central to who they are.

After the Tories made numerous promises to swing enough voters away from independece, they washed their hands of the issue thinking that was the end of it. Not following through on their promises turned the 2015 westminster election into a rout in Scotland. 56 of the 59 seats there went to the SNP. Labour was decimated as they sided with the Tories. The SNP has been masterful in exploiting every tory lie and they would call for a vote for independence every day of the week until they get their way.

Scotland wont get fooled again by any Tory promises. The SNP has to act while their popularity is high. Alex Salmond is probably the most skilled politician in the UK and the Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon is formidable in her own right. If the UK votes for a break from the EU they will not wait. They will immediately use it as a device to get their ultimate aim, independence. Both Salmond and Sturgeon know that there are peaks and troughs in political life and while they are on a massive peak they have to strike. The key thing is permission from Westminster. Once Britain leaves the EU, David Cameron is gone and the most likely contender is Boris Johnson a right winger. Cameron was/is always prepared to listen to others. Johnson doesnt. He wants Scotland to stay in the UK, but on his terms and has made his disdain known for scottish mps being able to vote on english issues. Cameron was always prepared to negotiate. It may take months, even years for this to play out but all the signs point to an obvious exit by Scotland from the union with a exit vote. With Salmond and Sturgeon at the helm, the odds of them being able to persuade Scotland to rejoin the EU will be high. 

 
Latest I read was that the campaigns were only suspended today
Campaigning was due to resume on Sunday after a suspension lasting more than two days following the fatal attack on lawmaker Jo Cox, a member of the opposition Labour Party and a strong supporter of Britain staying in the EU.

The man charged with her murder, Thomas Mair, gave his name as "death to traitors, freedom for Britain" when he appeared in court on Saturday.

 
Its hard to believe that the final vote could end up going 1% in favor of brexit and that basically alters the entire course of the western hemisphere.

 
Britain doesn't use the Euro.
But the pound is tied to it. Britain and Germany are carrying the rest of the Union. The British have less to lose than the Germans, who have lent tons of money to keep the PIIGS from going under. If the British pull out so fast they leave rubber, could the German be that far behind? Would Germany take the financial hit? I think a German pullout is less likely.

 
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bueno said:
I mean they tend to correlate almost exactly.
Having some time at work, I ran the correlations.  Correlation between the EUR and GBP varies wildly.  Over various time periods (daily over the past year, monthly for the last 5 years, etc) the rolling correlation between the two ranges from -0.55 to close to 1.

 
Latest polls are leaning against. Thankfully Britons are coming to their senses. 

 
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