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2016 US OPEN - OAKMONT (1 Viewer)

Dark Matter

Footballguy
Back to  a "traditional" US Open venue at Oakmont CC after the debacle that was Shamber's Bay. Deep rough, bikini waxed greens :popcorn: Looks like some weather rolling in tomorrow thru Friday that could soften things up a touch. Players are going to need all the help they can get on this monster.

 
Like him at 9-1, too. Nobody is going to be hitting it close and he is the best long-putter in the game, if not ever. Just need him to keep it in play.

 
I found Spieth at 11-1. The best putter wins at Oakmont.
Some of the talking heads on The Golf Channel said the big hitters have a decided advantage at Oakmont. 

But others were saying the straightest hitters can do well also. 

Not a one mentioned the best putters.

 
Should be a great 4 days, if some rain comes I think it really favors folks like Day, Rory and DJ.

 
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Some of the talking heads on The Golf Channel said the big hitters have a decided advantage at Oakmont. 

But others were saying the straightest hitters can do well also. 

Not a one mentioned the best putters.
It's a US Open. It's a given that you have to keep the ball in play. Among those who manage to minimize missed fairways, I think the best lag putters are going to wind up at the top. There will be a lot of missed 5-10 footers.

 
Some of the talking heads on The Golf Channel said the big hitters have a decided advantage at Oakmont. 

But others were saying the straightest hitters can do well also. 

Not a one mentioned the best putters.
It's funny, I listened to the Shack House podcast this morning and those guys were all over the place as to who the setup favors too. One guy was saying that the difficulty favors scramblers, the other was saying that the rough around the greens was so long that it might nullify that advantage and make scrambling a crapshoot, and thus preferred the GIR guys.  And they couldn't agree about the role length will play either.  I don't think anyone has any idea, other than obviously preferring guys who hit fairways.

 
Back to  a "traditional" US Open venue at Oakmont CC after the debacle that was Shamber's Bay. Deep rough, bikini waxed greens :popcorn: Looks like some weather rolling in tomorrow thru Friday that could soften things up a touch. Players are going to need all the help they can get on this monster.


I was under the impression that Oakmont is a private club. Am I wrong about that? 

 
Assuming his back isn't an issue, I like Rose this week. Maybe a little A.Scott exposure as well.

 
That's a shame. The US Open should be played on public courses IMO. As a USGA member I think its a shame that I can't show up and play on that course. 
Aside from Pebble (currently like $500 to play), public venues are a relatively new development. I'm pretty sure Bethpage in 2002 was the first ever municipal host. Since the '99 Open at Pinehurst, there have been a bunch of publically accessible courses. Pinehurst three times, Bethpage twice, Torrey Pines, Chambers Bay, Erin Hills next year. But historically, the Open has been played on private courses, which makes sense because most of the best courses are private. I'm with you though, and a lot of others are too, I love the idea of them playing them on public courses every few years.

 
With the greens as fast as they'll be, I think the long hitters will have a big advantage b/c they'll have shorter clubs in (also, look at some of the crazy lengths of the holes). So I like day, bubba, Rory, and dj for the usual suspects. I also like Scott, stenson, and the South Africans as guys who feel like they would play well here.

Snedeker has a good history on this course and Patrick Reed has, numbers-wise, the best combination of length, fairways hit, and scrambling. Those would be my two value plays. 

Staying away from spieth (tee issues), matsuyama and rose (both took time off for injuries), and fowler (been erratic in majors). 

 
But the criticism of Chambers Bay was at odds with its stellar leader board and epic finish. When the winner is Jordan Spieth and the top 10 includes Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen, Adam Scott, Charl Schwartzel, Jason Day and McIlroy, the course must be doing something right. 
Think this is a good argument.  Why they continue to include Olympic in the rotation when four of the five past champions there are Webb Simpson, Lee Janzen, Scott Simpson and Jack Fleck is beyond me.  It plays like it's missing a windmill or two.

 
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Think this is a good argument.  Why they continue to include Olympic in the rotation when four of the five past champions there are Webb Simpson, Lee Janzen, Scott Simpson and Jack Fleck is beyond me.  It plays like it's missing a windmill or two.
It's possible the Lake Course isn't even the third best course surrounding Lake Merced.

And Simpson, Simpson, Janzen & Fleck did a great job getting a settlement in that asbestos class action back in the 90s.

 
Aside from Pebble (currently like $500 to play), public venues are a relatively new development. I'm pretty sure Bethpage in 2002 was the first ever municipal host. Since the '99 Open at Pinehurst, there have been a bunch of publically accessible courses. Pinehurst three times, Bethpage twice, Torrey Pines, Chambers Bay, Erin Hills next year. But historically, the Open has been played on private courses, which makes sense because most of the best courses are private. I'm with you though, and a lot of others are too, I love the idea of them playing them on public courses every few years.


Golf has some problems (too expensive, too hard, and takes too long are the ones I hear most), and I worry that catering to the country club set won't help solve any of those problems. I coach high school golf, and most of the coaches I talk to fear where the game is headed. 

 
Golf has some problems (too expensive, too hard, and takes too long are the ones I hear most), and I worry that catering to the country club set won't help solve any of those problems. I coach high school golf, and most of the coaches I talk to fear where the game is headed. 
I don't see it as catering to anybody, honestly. And the game is heading in a much more inclusive direction. It is going away from exclusivity, not towards.

The issue is that Tiger Woods coincided with the dot com boom and the real estate bubble. It was a perfect storm, whereby the game grew by leaps and bounds thanks to the Tiger effect and everybody having money. Those three things imploded at roughly the same time. It wasn't sustainable and the current state of the game was absolutely predictable.

 
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I don't see it as catering to anybody, honestly. And the game is heading in a much more inclusive direction. It is going away from exclusivity, not towards.

The issue is that Tiger Woods coincided with the dot com boom and the real estate bubble. It was a perfect storm, whereby the game grew by leaps and bounds thanks to the Tiger effect and everybody having money. Those three of those things imploded at roughly the same time. It wasn't sustainable and the current state of the game was absolutely predictable.
Hope you're right about this. I've only been involved with golf for five years, so my experience is limited. 

 
Assuming his back isn't an issue, I like Rose this week. Maybe a little A.Scott exposure as well.
Did you see his interview? I was going to take him until he admitted he just started swinging the driver full go last Thursday.

Adam Scott assuming he doesn't biff a bunch of 3 foot putts is a great pick.

 
Did you see his interview? I was going to take him until he admitted he just started swinging the driver full go last Thursday.

Adam Scott assuming he doesn't biff a bunch of 3 foot putts is a great pick.
Hmmmmm. No, hadn't heard about Rose and his driver. may have to re-think this a bit.

Thanks 

 
Did about 40% draft kings lineups with Rory and 40% with Day. 

Which means Spieth is going to cruise. 

Full fade on Rose. Don't trust Adam Scott on these greens. 14 on the stimpmeter? Favor lag putters like Bubba. Hot putters like Sneds. 

Scramblers like Reed and Kuchar. 

Other than that my bets to win (based on value) are Willett, Grace, Grillo and Reed for  a top 10. 

 
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I was listening to PGA tour radio this morning while driving to a customer's site and they mentioned that only about 20% of the field will be able to get anything more than a sand wedge out of the rough.

That really favors your stronger players like Day, Rory, and DJ.  

They also said that the FAIRWAYS are rolling at about an 11 right now.  LOL.  The greens at my home course are that fast maybe 2 weeks a year.

 
With the greens as fast as they'll be, I think the long hitters will have a big advantage b/c they'll have shorter clubs in (also, look at some of the crazy lengths of the holes). So I like day, bubba, Rory, and dj for the usual suspects. I also like Scott, stenson, and the South Africans as guys who feel like they would play well here.

Snedeker has a good history on this course and Patrick Reed has, numbers-wise, the best combination of length, fairways hit, and scrambling. Those would be my two value plays. 

Staying away from spieth (tee issues), matsuyama and rose (both took time off for injuries), and fowler (been erratic in majors). 
I like almost all of the favorites.  And some guys just below them, too.  And the South Africans.

 
I was listening to PGA tour radio this morning while driving to a customer's site and they mentioned that only about 20% of the field will be able to get anything more than a sand wedge out of the rough.

That really favors your stronger players like Day, Rory, and DJ.  

They also said that the FAIRWAYS are rolling at about an 11 right now.  LOL.  The greens at my home course are that fast maybe 2 weeks a year.
https://youtu.be/0lhaoSadNnk?t=70

 
Greatest performance ever.  I've played Torrey and on an average day that course is stupid hard, much less US Open conditions.  Tiger made it look like a pitch and putt that week.  God I wish he were still playing good golf now that there are young guys that could tee it up with him.  Would be so much more fun.
Yup. That shot was unreal. I was there Saturday (that shot was Friday) and while the crowd didn't have access down there we obviously saw plenty of deep rough and that was called the deepest rough on the course, as it's the lowest point. I saw an equally mind-boggling shot off the lip of the bunker 75-100 out on the left from about 15 feet away on the same hole the next day. I assume you meant Pebble.

 
Yup. That shot was unreal. I was there Saturday (that shot was Friday) and while the crowd didn't have access down there we obviously saw plenty of deep rough and that was called the deepest rough on the course, as it's the lowest point. I saw an equally mind-boggling shot off the lip of the bunker 75-100 out on the left from about 15 feet away on the same hole the next day. I assume you meant Pebble.


Yep.  Sorry.  

 
It's funny, I listened to the Shack House podcast this morning and those guys were all over the place as to who the setup favors too. One guy was saying that the difficulty favors scramblers, the other was saying that the rough around the greens was so long that it might nullify that advantage and make scrambling a crapshoot, and thus preferred the GIR guys.  And they couldn't agree about the role length will play either.  I don't think anyone has any idea, other than obviously preferring guys who hit fairways.
Ya, and I think it goes without saying that any tournament, not to mention a US open, is going to favor people putting well from distance.

 
In mid-April I made my bets at Caesars.

Even though I love a Day or McIlroy, I don't get a thrill at betting them for futures at low odds, which we all know are sucker bets. The fun is when you win on a longer shot and it provides bragging rights. 

I like to pick value plays that in my mind at least have a shot at winning but provide a bit of a return as well. As such:

Matsuyama 30/1

Oosthuizen 35/1

Westwood 80/1

Cabrera 200/1

 
Greatest performance ever.  I've played Torrey and on an average day that course is stupid hard, much less US Open conditions.  Tiger made it look like a pitch and putt that week.  God I wish he were still playing good golf now that there are young guys that could tee it up with him.  Would be so much more fun.
That was Pebble Beach.

I was there standing behind 6 green to see approach shots then turn to see tee shots to #7. The wind was blowing 15-20 mph and players like Freddy were hitting 7 & 8 irons to the 105 yd 7th. The wind just stopped as Tiger walked to the tee and he hit flip wedge. It was Surreal.

I like Old Man Furyk and young gun Mathew Fitzpatrick as long shots this week.

 

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