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This year's #1 pick and he'll remain there for 3+ years (1 Viewer)

Futz

Futz

Footballguy
Okay I'll start by readily admitting I rode this pony at the end of last season to a championship so I am completely biased. However, hear me out. David Johnson doesn't just pass the eyeball test, he is laser corrective surgery better than 20/20 vision.

Youtube some highlights if you need a refresher. His sudden acceleration and ability to maintain it are off the charts and he's a big dude. He's not the most physical back but I don't feel he needs to be with this speed/size combination and it might help his longevity to not be as physical as some.

I could bore you with a ton of stats but I won't. I want you to understand one nugget though. This guy had 13 combined touchdowns and he didn't have double-digit touches until week 12. Week 12! 

Bruce Arians recently said that he could be one of the best of all time. Coach speak? Yeah probably but very telling. Coaches rarely make such bold statements so early in a career.

Now I know they resigned Chris Johnson but if you think he's anything more than a breather boy, you're crazy.

What about Gurley, ADP, or Leveon? They are all great in their own ways but they all have an injury history. Gurley and ADP don't have the offense or the team surrounding them like DJ. I'm also thinking Pitt (if they are smart) throttles down Leveon's touches with Dwil proving to be more than adequate. Gurley is the best pure RB in the league but I don't think he's quite the receiver and he will also have a rookie QB to deal with.

I know the PPR WR nuts  are going to say no way but DJ is an exceptional receiver too. 36 grabs in such a limited role. No matter the score, DJ remains involved. Palmer trusts him lined up outside.

What about the WRs? Lots of people slobbin on Antonio Brown, Julio and ODB and for good reason. However, 17 WRs scored 200 points or more in my league last year compared to only 4 RBs. That tells me that the scarcity of the RB position makes this pick even more important. It also suggests to me that a top tier running back combined with a second round receiver is probably going to be more beneficial to your team long-term.

Own him. Flame away... :)

 
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I have him as my #1 this year, but in the history of fantasy football, there has never been a consensus #1 3 years in a row. 

 
I'm with you. I won't say for the next 3 years because things change so fast for that position and its an injury-ridden one but, yeah, I'm with you.  Right offense, right coach, right talent.  Opportunity is there.

 
TripItUp said:
I have him as my #1 this year, but in the history of fantasy football, there has never been a consensus #1 3 years in a row. 
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You could make an argument that Marshall Faulk or Priest Holmes were consensus #1s for about 3 years if my memory serves me correct.

 
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Buyer beware. He got a ton of work because there were no other options at the end of the year last year. I don't see him getting the workload that some think he will get. I also don't see him getting the receiving yards (was on pace for almost 1,000 receiving yards last year) or the TDs to make him the #1 back. Also, stats from PHI game last year inflated his small sample size (229 yards and 3 TDs). IMO, adding Chris Johnson and Ellington into the mix will take away a lot of the workload.

 
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Anarchy99 said:
Buyer beware. He got a ton of work because there were no other options at the end of the year last year. I don't see him getting the workload that some thing he will get. I also don't see him getting the receiving yards (was on pace for almost 1,000 receiving yards last year) or the TDs to make him the #1 back. Also, stats from PHI game last year inflated his small sample size (229 yards and 3 TDs). IMO, adding Chris Johnson and Ellington into the mix will take away a lot of the workload.
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You make some valid points however I'm not in the business of taking away individual games. The point is he's capable of those weeks especially against inferior competition and that can't be disregarded.

 
Here are the last 5 guys to be drafted in the 1st round of fantasy drafts after taking over as the lead RB later in their rookie season and finishing strong down the stretch.

CJ Anderson

Jeremy Hill

Montee Ball

DeMarco Murray

Zac Stacy

Combined they finished with zero top 10 finishes and one top 20 finish (Hill at RB14).

I've been saying for a while now that these guys are the worst bargains in all of fantasy football.  You pay for their upside and they almost never match it.  People go on and on about guys like Zeke in the first round having "never played an NFL down" yet completely ignore that rookies good enough to be 1st round picks in fantasy have finished as top 10 RBs almost 100% of the time, while these David Johnson clones that played a handful of games down the stretch as rookies before becoming 1st rounders heading into year two finish as top 10 RBs closer to 0% of the time.

I'm a fan of David Johnson, drafted him in the 1st round of my rookie draft last year and still own him in my main dynasty league.  But history says he is a sell high right now.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Buyer beware. He got a ton of work because there were no other options at the end of the year last year. I don't see him getting the workload that some thing he will get. I also don't see him getting the receiving yards (was on pace for almost 1,000 receiving yards last year) or the TDs to make him the #1 back. Also, stats from PHI game last year inflated his small sample size (229 yards and 3 TDs). IMO, adding Chris Johnson and Ellington into the mix will take away a lot of the workload.
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Of RBs with a minimum # of touches, DJ was #1 in ppg by a wide margin.  His touches could regress some and you could still make a strong argument he is top RB.

Arguments for would be:

1) Sophomore season will be better than rookie season, more mature and experienced etc. etc.  See Emmit Smith's second season etc. etc.

2) Improved offensive line, particularly on the right side.

3) Arians prefers workhorse/bellcow backs and not committees

 
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Johnson is my number 6 RB this year in redraft non-ppr.  My main concerns are he is a better receiver than runner which may lead BA to use the other Johnson more than folks are going to like.  

I am projecting 240-250 carries for 1100 yards with 64 receptions for 525 yards and and 14 TD's.  

He is very close in projections to the four guys I have ranked higher than him.  All the RB's have risks, so I tend to go with the guys that I feel have the greatest upside to go with it.  I think Miller, Elliot, Gurley, Bell, and Peterson all have more upside and/or lower risk to them.

 
abbottjamesr said:
He is very close in projections to the four guys I have ranked higher than him.  All the RB's have risks, so I tend to go with the guys that I feel have the greatest upside to go with it.  I think Miller, Elliot, Gurley, Bell, and Peterson all have more upside and/or lower risk to them.
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My records show LT and Priest each had 2 years...point being...I'd bet the farm against DJ being the #1 pick for three consecutive years.

 
Going back aways, Brett Favre might have been a consenus 1 for three years in a row. 

 
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TripItUp said:
Of RBs with a minimum # of touches, DJ was #1 in ppg by a wide margin.  His touches could regress some and you could still make a strong argument he is top RB.

Arguments for would be:

1) Sophomore season will be better than rookie season, more mature and experienced etc. etc.  See Emmit Smith's second season etc. etc.

2) Improved offensive line, particularly on the right side.

3) Arians prefers workhorse/bellcow backs and not committees
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Johnson won't catch nearly 100 passes, score every 13 touches, or average nearly 13 yards per reception again. All those things are unsustainable. As I mentioned in other threads, Top 5 maybe (maybe even most likely), but #1 overall seems unlikely. 

I'm surprised you would go all in on a back who has had double digit carries only four times. 

IMO, Elliott has a greater chance to rank #1 than Johnson. And pretty much the same arguments against Elliott apply to Johnson. 

 
TripItUp said:
Nope
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I will defer since I'm going to be too lazy to even try to do the homework. I will say that those RBs were gotta have first round picks for years on end regardless of whether they were the consensus #1 pick for 3 straight years.

I am saying that if DJ does what I think he's capable of, he could own the #1 slot for awhile.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Johnson won't catch nearly 100 passes, score every 13 touches, or average nearly 13 yards per reception again. All those things are unsustainable. As I mentioned in other threads, Top 5 maybe (maybe even most likely), but #1 overall seems unlikely. 

I'm surprised you would go all in on a back who has had double digit carries only four times. 

IMO, Elliott has a greater chance to rank #1 than Johnson. And pretty much the same arguments against Elliott apply to Johnson. 
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I don't disagree with your logic regarding #1 overall and I can see the argument for Elliott having a higher ceiling.   I also don't disagree that several of DJ's metrics from last year are unsustainable. 

That being said, I think DJ is the most likely to finish as a top 3 RB with arguably the least amount of risk of the top backs, which is why he is my #1 overall.  I don't think we disagree much here and are saying the same thing in some respects. 

Also, he isn't my #1 overall in all formats, just standard format.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Here are the last 5 guys to be drafted in the 1st round of fantasy drafts after taking over as the lead RB later in their rookie season and finishing strong down the stretch.

CJ Anderson

Jeremy Hill

Montee Ball

DeMarco Murray

Zac Stacy

Combined they finished with zero top 10 finishes and one top 20 finish (Hill at RB14).

I've been saying for a while now that these guys are the worst bargains in all of fantasy football.  You pay for their upside and they almost never match it.  People go on and on about guys like Zeke in the first round having "never played an NFL down" yet completely ignore that rookies good enough to be 1st round picks in fantasy have finished as top 10 RBs almost 100% of the time, while these David Johnson clones that played a handful of games down the stretch as rookies before becoming 1st rounders heading into year two finish as top 10 RBs closer to 0% of the time.

I'm a fan of David Johnson, drafted him in the 1st round of my rookie draft last year and still own him in my main dynasty league.  But history says he is a sell high right now.
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I appreciate the effort in this post but I think the guys you mentioned were all opportunity guys who had real good seasons and the obvious lack of pure ability showed up the next season. Although, I do reserve judgement on Murray because I think in the right system he's a fine back.

I've been watching football for 35+ years and DJ looks like a generational talent to me. The guys you mention never gave me that idea whatsoever.

 
Bri said:
Kurt Warner too
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Thunderlips said:
Going back aways, Brett Favre might have been a consenus 1 for three years in a row. 
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maybe in start 2Q leagues, but otherwise QBs are almost never consensus top picks.

TripItUp said:
I show LT at 2 years.  I don't have Emmit era data.
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Smith should have been the top pick a few years in a row but when we played, there was always a debate between him and Barry.  Perhaps there shouldn't have been, but we were in Detroit.  five years straight of 1800+ yards and double digit touchdowns should have made him the top pick. 

 
Favre was getting 39 tds in an era where  the best guys maybe got 28.  They invented 4 point passing tds because he was destroying leagues single handedly.   Td only leagues with 100 yard yardage bonuses and 300 for qbs were the norm back then.   Emmitt might have gone 1.1 in dallas but favre was the man.

 
Futz said:
Don't claim to be from Detroit Francis. You certainly aren't. Why don't you go watch a Utica Unicorns game and relax.
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 Have a good weekend. Maybe hit up 2 James or Batch or something, enjoy some good drink. That's my plan. Peace. 

 
Hey Futz.whats up? By any chance are you a DJ owner? 

If you look back to 1990 and  at every year since the landscape is littered with one-off wonders like Curtis Enis,  Gio Bernard,  Antowain Smith, Robert Edwards, Ron Dayne, Olandis Gary, Tatum Bell, on and on and on.I think history has proven that its best not to pick last year's darling RB.I add to the list a guy named D. Freeman .he's  primed to disappoint. Look at his wcond half numbers.he was a bum averaging 3.1 per carry final 8 weeks.You have a lot of capable RBs in Az and I see no way DJ gets the touches and carries this year to equal what he did last year. And Palmer is due to go down with a bruised ego or hangnail or worse.he is as brittle as a Lays potato chip. Who is QB when he goes down? Now youre looking at 8 in the box defensively..

Id bet Ajayi gets more touches than DJ.they'll have a sick line with Tunsil so there is plenty of hope down there.

The safest RB  pick atop FF drafts is ADP. he gets his numbers every year.

 
Wouldn't catch me dead taking him over Gurley, or even Elliott for that matter.

Yes, I said Elliott. 

 
FUBAR said:
maybe in start 2Q leagues, but otherwise QBs are almost never consensus top picks.

Smith should have been the top pick a few years in a row but when we played, there was always a debate between him and Barry.  Perhaps there shouldn't have been, but we were in Detroit.  five years straight of 1800+ yards and double digit touchdowns should have made him the top pick. 
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To expand on what BostonFred said a few posts after this......the "Brett Favre Rule" became a thing when he was dominating the league in the mid 90s.  

 
Tanner9919 said:
Hey Futz.whats up? By any chance are you a DJ owner? 

If you look back to 1990 and  at every year since the landscape is littered with one-off wonders like Curtis Enis,  Gio Bernard,  Antowain Smith, Robert Edwards, Ron Dayne, Olandis Gary, Tatum Bell, on and on and on.I think history has proven that its best not to pick last year's darling RB.I add to the list a guy named D. Freeman .he's  primed to disappoint. Look at his wcond half numbers.he was a bum averaging 3.1 per carry final 8 weeks.You have a lot of capable RBs in Az and I see no way DJ gets the touches and carries this year to equal what he did last year. And Palmer is due to go down with a bruised ego or hangnail or worse.he is as brittle as a Lays potato chip. Who is QB when he goes down? Now youre looking at 8 in the box defensively..

Id bet Ajayi gets more touches than DJ.they'll have a sick line with Tunsil so there is plenty of hope down there.

The safest RB  pick atop FF drafts is ADP. he gets his numbers every year.
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Hey listen, I understand having reservations. A lot of one hit wonders have hit the skids and proved us ridiculous for having the faith. I think you need to look a little bit deeper though. You are looking at 8 in the box for ADP and Gurley without a doubt and it hasn't stopped them from piling up numbers and neither have proven to be as capable of a receiver. Palmer is a concern and so is Big Ben, Bridgewater and whatever QB mans the ship in LA. Antonio Brown became human the minute Ben went down and Julio under Ryan just doesn't pile up TDs for some reason. 

A lot of the RBs you mention are either undersized, oversized or proved not to be NFL talents that would sustain. I just don't see it with DJ. He fits the bill and checks off all the boxes. He's goal line, a distance runner, and a capable receiver. The worst I see for him is 1,400/600/14 combined which is exactly what I want out of a #1 pick with a chance at more. I have the #5 pick and will be glad to get him there and I think I will. Should you take him before that? It's entirely up to you but I can't fault anyone for doing it.

 
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There are certainly some strong arguments being made here--and I'm not disputing them.   I however would bet against the whole 3 plus years of him being worth the number 1 pick.   I just don't believe that in this current NFL that a running back will be used enough--or healthy enough to be the number 1 option for 3 or more years in a row.   With that being said--I would have zero problem being wrong about this.  If he ends up being worth the number 1 pick for 3 plus years in a row-- I will be the first to say "Great effing call--and congrats".   

 
TripItUp said:
neither of those links demonstrate that Warner was the #1 overall player drafted three years in a row.
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no you're being ignorant and/or obtuse. You clearly know I didn't link to an actual draft.You also know anyone in the top few of ADP can be selected #1 and that players that do well one year get drafted highly the next. Some leagues score QBs with 3 or 4 points per TD, but that wasn't generally the case until the last 10 years or so.

 
FUBAR said:
maybe in start 2Q leagues, but otherwise QBs are almost never consensus top picks.

Smith should have been the top pick a few years in a row but when we played, there was always a debate between him and Barry.  Perhaps there shouldn't have been, but we were in Detroit.  five years straight of 1800+ yards and double digit touchdowns should have made him the top pick. 
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Peyton was a first pick at times also.

Randall Cunningham and Marino too.

I've seen Vick and Daunte go extremely high but I don't think first. 

The "catch" is they hit 5000 yards or X amount of TDs or the rushing with the fantasy scoring in that league.

Eli's rookie year, he'd seem to throw more INTs than Peyton threw TDs. He had 5 and six TD games and threw like 50 TDs that year. The following year, yep he went first in some drafts.

He's like Warner. He had a great season, meh season, then great season. A bunch of people got stuck drafting him highly for that meh season. However, I don't think it was truly like that, just perception.

Hang on. OK At PFR

See in 2004 Peyton led the NFL with 49 TDs and was the 4th best fantasy player in their scoring system.

In 2006, he had 18 less TDs with 31, but that was still the most in the NFL that year and he was the 5th best player.

In 2005, he threw for only 600 less yards and 3 less TDs but was the 32nd ranked fantasy player. It's all relative to his QB peers

 
Bri said:
Peyton was a first pick at times also.

Randall Cunningham and Marino too.

I've seen Vick and Daunte go extremely high but I don't think first. 

The "catch" is they hit 5000 yards or X amount of TDs or the rushing with the fantasy scoring in that league.

Eli's rookie year, he'd seem to throw more INTs than Peyton threw TDs. He had 5 and six TD games and threw like 50 TDs that year. The following year, yep he went first in some drafts.

He's like Warner. He had a great season, meh season, then great season. A bunch of people got stuck drafting him highly for that meh season. However, I don't think it was truly like that, just perception.

Hang on. OK At PFR

See in 2004 Peyton led the NFL with 49 TDs and was the 4th best fantasy player in their scoring system.

In 2006, he had 18 less TDs with 31, but that was still the most in the NFL that year and he was the 5th best player.

In 2005, he threw for only 600 less yards and 3 less TDs but was the 32nd ranked fantasy player. It's all relative to his QB peers
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Wasn't the argument about pre season drafts and not final ranking? 

 
Steed said:
Someone tell me in what universe David Johnson is a better football player than Odb
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well, if you wanna go that route, a few of us here, myself included, have Evans ranked higher than ODB in dynasty. 

It's all preference.

 
Steed said:
Someone tell me in what universe David Johnson is a better football player than Odb
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I think you missed the point. Brady is one of the best football players to ever play the game and still is. What round would he go if he played all 16 games this year? 5th at best? It's all relative to the value of the pick. The scarcity of the RB position and the fact you probably have to start 2 in most leagues puts a stud RB in rarefied air status right now. You can find stud WRs all throughout the draft year in and year out right now and FA WRs are found on a weekly basis. You can't say that about RBs right now. If you can peg AND land a top 5 RB in a given year, you have a huge advantage IMO.

People are scared off by all the first round RB busts the last few years and I get it. Everyone has done a great job pointing them out in this post. Those bust RBs put up good to great numbers in a single season but did Zack Stacey, Montee Ball, CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill, EVER jump off the page like this guy does?

**Caution language** Turn the speakers down if need be.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLoZr0BVQ9E

The answer to me is no flipping way. His kick return left my mouth wide open. That's a runaway human freight train right there.

 
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Bri said:
no you're being ignorant and/or obtuse. You clearly know I didn't link to an actual draft.You also know anyone in the top few of ADP can be selected #1 and that players that do well one year get drafted highly the next. Some leagues score QBs with 3 or 4 points per TD, but that wasn't generally the case until the last 10 years or so.
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Back in Warner's heyday I was playing a ton of leagues (probably 10 per year) and I don't recall him going 1st in a single one of those drafts, much less a consensus of them for three straight years.

If the goal is to list people who were good football players for three years in a row then we can list off about 200 guys.  That's the bucket that Warner is in.

ETA: My first league was 1997 and it was 4pts per pass TD.

 
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DJ isn't the #1 in any ADP list I've seen so far this year, nor is he #1 in any of the drafts I've been in. He's been around 7th all day, every day. By week 1 he could move up or down a spot or 2. I don't see how you can think he'll be the consensus #1 this year. I would want to see how this season goes before predicting the following season.

FWIW, i like him alot and own him in about 20% of my MFL10s. I don't have him in any FPC leagues yet, but that's only because I haven't been in the right spot to draft him.

 
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