What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Matt Harmon's 2016 tiered redraft fantasy rankings (1 Viewer)

Bracie Smathers

Bracie Smathers

Footballguy
Harmon has gained some fantasy cred with his WR reception perception but he isn't known for his rankings so this is more of a curiosity to see how this turns out.

Too much to cut-and-paste so just posting the top tiers from each position.

Go to the link for the full list.

http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000675608/article/matt-harmons-2016-redraft-fantasy-ranking-tiers


Matt Harmon's 2016 tiered redraft fantasy rankings



Quarterbacks





Tier 1

1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Cam Newton, Panthers
3. Russell Wilson, Seahawks

Running backs

Tier 1

1. David Johnson, Cardinals
2. Le'Veon Bell, Steelers


Wide Receivers



 



Tier 1





1. Antonio Brown, Steelers
2. Odell Beckham, Giants
3. Julio Jones, Falcons
4. A.J. Green, Bengals

Tight end


Tier 1

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

 
For some reason, Harmon's specializing on WRs makes me trust his other positions less than I normally would. Anyone else feel like that too?

 
Nice article.

I like what Matt is doing on NFL.com and I hope other writers there follow the approach and write a bit more in depth. It makes reading content on NFL.com more enjoyable than what I usually read there, although Fear and Loathing always does a good job too, just a bit more succinctly. I like writers who ramble a bit more.

Disagree with some of the players ranking of course, but also agree with a lot of them.

Thanks for sharing Bracie.

 
Can't say it's wrong but it seems odd to not have Brees or Luck in tier 1.

Delanie Walker is too low. My gut would swap him with Barnidge but they probably both belong in tier 3.  You almost need to put Jimmy Graham in two tiers - healthy in tier 2 and injured a nonfactor.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
QBs: Higher on Cousins and lowers on Winston than most. Personally, think I'd rather Winston and think he can be a QB1 this year. Cousins has all the tools, but the Skins have a tough schedule so we'll see what he can do. I'd probably swap Winston and Cousins in Harmon's rankings.

RBs: No real arguments there. Maybe swap McCoy and Forte, but looks pretty close to mine. DeMarco Murray at 35 does seem low, but not sure what to expect of him in Tennessee. Think he finishes higher than that, but he's not someone I'm actively looking to add to my teams this year unless he slips in drafts.

WRs: He seems to be lower on Matthews and Fitzgerald than most. I see Fitz as a solid WR2/3. Harmon seems to think he's not even a WR3. He's really high on Aiken, which I could see Aiken having a solid season this year and seems to be underrated.

TEs: Agree with FUBAR that Walker is too low. I don't see how he wouldn't slide in with the other Tier 2 guys, IMO.

 
I like Matt's work, but I see the same problems in his rankings as I do in the consensus ADP.

Doug Martin isn't a special talent like Charles, but he's a couple years younger, not coming off injury, and every bit the "workhorse" that Charles is, if not more. Sure, Charles will probably end up with more receptions, but how many more if we're being realistic? 10? Will that offset the 50+ more carries Martin will have? I'd at least flip flop those guys in the tiers. Probably bump Ingram up if not for the fact he misses time to injury every year, but if he plays 16 he's a lock for 220 and 60.

Additionally, I don't trust David Johnson at a top 5 price tag. He's too high on Forte and Rawls. I don't understand why Mathews and Hyde get no love. Those two should be flipped with Forte and Rawls. I don't understand how he can have Prosise and Wilson so high with Rawls also ranked pretty high - seems like only 2 out of 3 at the most could feasibly live up to his rankings. Murray and Forsett are both too low. I'm not fans of either, but they belong higher. I'm liking the Forsett + Dixon handcuff approach more and more. That offense should be much improved this year.

I like his WR rankings, although I wouldn't touch Landry where he's got him and I don't understand the massive discrepancy between Hurns and Robinson. I predict they finish less than 20 spots apart.

I agree with him about Green being a better player than Fleener, but I don't see how he can overlook situation. Fleener is set to receive somewhere in the (large) range of 20-50 more targets than Green. On the topic of targets, I have a hard time getting excited about Kelce's top 5 price tag combined with his <110 targets. He finished TE8 last year. Why is he going TE4 this year? Same offense. Same competition for targets. Same QB.

 
Slapdash said:
Continue to be surprised with how low people have Freeman ranked this year
Click to expand...
How much will Tevin play? What will happen on the goalline? I love Freeman but everyone bringing him down has me questioning myself and I feel like I'm overrating him somehow even though he killed it. 

 
FF Ninja said:
1) low ypc

2) stats propped up by TDs last year

3) competition for touches

4) terrible second half weighing on everyone's minds

Where do you have him ranked?
Click to expand...
I'm surprised people are so high on him.  I thought he looked really pedestrian going down the stretch.  

 
take away touchdowns from any player and they don't look so good. Leveon Bell had a terrible YPC his rookie year and ended up being just okay i guess. 

 
FF Ninja said:
1) low ypc

2) stats propped up by TDs last year

3) competition for touches

4) terrible second half weighing on everyone's minds

Where do you have him ranked?
Click to expand...
Yup, I've posted his numbers from down the stretch and they aren't pretty. Coleman had a higher YPC than Freeman. Now, I don't think Coleman over takes him, but Freeman really slowed down the 2nd half of the season. His PPG were about 8PPG less in the 2nd half of the season than the 1st half.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
menobrown said:
And was still one of the top fantasy RB's during this "pedestrian" looking stretch.
Click to expand...
I don't think the falcons care about fantasy however.  I think they play whoever is performing the best and he wasn't down the stretch...

His stats week 9 on were absolutely awful.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
killface said:
I don't think the falcons care about fantasy however.  I think they play whoever is performing the best and he wasn't down the stretch...
Click to expand...
Well yea but last I checked this was a fantasy board which is what we care about.

 Your last sentence is a contradiction. You say they play whoever is performing the best and go on to  say he wasn't down the stretch which makes no sense because Freeman continued to play over Coleman. You were right with the first part of that sentence, they play whoever is the best performer and that was Freeman, even during the back stretch.

 Coleman is a zero in the passing game and had big time fumbling issues. His YPC was higher but it should be higher for fresh COP backs and it still was not that great. He got really limited use, because Freeman was outplaying him, and broke off a 45 or 46 yard run otherwise even despite being fresh and well rested he was around 3.6 on his other carries during Freemans "pedestrian" stretch. 

 
ctrlaltdefeat said:
take away touchdowns from any player and they don't look so good. Leveon Bell had a terrible YPC his rookie year and ended up being just okay i guess. 
Click to expand...
Bell's ypc improved by a lot in year two. Last year was Freeman's second year. Bell's ypc didn't suck for two years.

menobrown said:
And was still one of the top fantasy RB's during this "pedestrian" looking stretch.
Click to expand...
No he wasn't. The only way he was a top scorer is if a league was using the antiquated scoring system of awarding points for catching the ball. If based on actual production, he compiled decent numbers, but wasn't a top fantasy RB.

 
FF Ninja said:
No he wasn't. The only way he was a top scorer is if a league was using the antiquated scoring system of awarding points for catching the ball. If based on actual production, he compiled decent numbers, but wasn't a top fantasy RB.
Click to expand...


No I'm not wrong and feel like saying so is utter BS and it's not the first time you've done that. Feel free to state that  in scoring systems you play he's not or something of that ilk but don't give me this " no he wasn't" crap because in leagues I'm in he was.

Have zero interest in you trying to turn this into another anti-PPR tirade  or what system is the antiquated one. 

 
menobrown said:
Well yea but last I checked this was a fantasy board which is what we care about.

 Your last sentence is a contradiction. You say they play whoever is performing the best and go on to  say he wasn't down the stretch which makes no sense because Freeman continued to play over Coleman. You were right with the first part of that sentence, they play whoever is the best performer and that was Freeman, even during the back stretch.

 Coleman is a zero in the passing game and had big time fumbling issues. His YPC was higher but it should be higher for fresh COP backs and it still was not that great. He got really limited use, because Freeman was outplaying him, and broke off a 45 or 46 yard run otherwise even despite being fresh and well rested he was around 3.6 on his other carries during Freemans "pedestrian" stretch. 
Click to expand...
Yes but at that point they were riding Freeman, there was no changing.  This is a new year and his 2.98 ypc over the last five weeks has very much opened the door for Coleman.  

 
FF Ninja said:
1) low ypc

2) stats propped up by TDs last year

3) competition for touches

4) terrible second half weighing on everyone's minds

Where do you have him ranked?
Click to expand...
Wouldn't put him lower than 5.  The whole Atlanta team pretty much collapsed the last half of the season.  The offensive line is likely to be very improved with the arrival of Mack.  Seeing him at the end of top-10 is putting him near his realistic floor (assuming health) given how strong he is in the passing game.

 
killface said:
I don't think the falcons care about fantasy however.  I think they play whoever is performing the best and he wasn't down the stretch...

His stats week 9 on were absolutely awful.
Click to expand...
Over 10 points in game in standard (16 in PPR) is absolutely awful?

 
MattFancy said:
Freeman's last 5 games - 2.98YPC

Coleman's last 5 games - 4.64 YPC
Click to expand...
A week or so ago you were focused on Freemans decline from week 9 on but and now it's down to last 5 games. Ok, but seems like playing with stats to prove a point.

During this 5 game stretch Freeman got 45 carries. With limited use like that one carry can make a huge difference, in his case one carry for 45 or so years boosted his whole YPC by a full yard. I can also parse stats. Also you lowballed Freeman slighly on his YPC.

Also I tend to factor in stuff like Coleman was fresh and a used as change of pace back so he should out rush Freeman on YPC. And if Coleman really was playing so much better the coaches sure did not seem to notice because Freeman kept getting huge usage. A lot more than just throwing up YPC from limited sample size, for me anyay.

 
Neither here nor there.  It's all opinion until the season starts.  I am wary of a guy that average under 3ypc down the stretch some are not...to each there own and we will some come the season

 
killface said:
Yes but at that point they were riding Freeman, there was no changing.  This is a new year and his 2.98 ypc over the last five weeks has very much opened the door for Coleman.  
Click to expand...
Yet they had no problem changing the starter from Coleman to Freeman after Tevin got hurt  even after he returned. Meanwhile when Freeman got hurt he walked back into his job when he got back and sent Coleman back to COP/backup duties. Coaches actually make in-season changes.  

 
menobrown said:
A week or so ago you were focused on Freemans decline from week 9 on but and now it's down to last 5 games. Ok, but seems like playing with stats to prove a point.

During this 5 game stretch Freeman got 45 carries. With limited use like that one carry can make a huge difference, in his case one carry for 45 or so years boosted his whole YPC by a full yard. I can also parse stats. Also you lowballed Freeman slighly on his YPC.

Also I tend to factor in stuff like Coleman was fresh and a used as change of pace back so he should out rush Freeman on YPC. And if Coleman really was playing so much better the coaches sure did not seem to notice because Freeman kept getting huge usage. A lot more than just throwing up YPC from limited sample size, for me anyay.
Click to expand...
Might want to recount Freeman's carries over the last 5 weeks. He had 98 carries for 292 yards. Not sure where you got 45 from. He had 72 carries just in the final 3 games.

Ok, so let's even go back to the last 9 weeks, Coleman still had a better YPC.

My point with Freeman has been that a ton of his production came from a ridiculous that accounted for a huge chunk of his production. In his other 9 full games that he played, he was nothing special.

During his out of this world 5 game stretch, he amassed 578yds, 8 rushing TDs, 5.3YPC and chipped in 27rec, 247yds and 1 TD.

In his other 9 games, he totaled 435yds, 3 rushing TDs, 2.8YPC, 46rec, 331yds, 2 TDs.

Do I still think Freeman could be an RB1 this year? Sure. But I wouldn't put him in the top 5 of RBs this year.

 
killface said:
Neither here nor there.  It's all opinion until the season starts.  I am wary of a guy that average under 3ypc down the stretch some are not...to each there own and we will some come the season
Click to expand...
I've yet to find someone who thinks he's going to repeat last year. Personally I've got Freeman as my #5-7 RB range, PPR of course and have him in the 15-18 point range. Higher end of that range likely makes him a top 5 back, lower end likely makes him low end RB1, hovering around top 10. That's about how I see him, not the guy from last year so he should be devalued from last year but not buried.

We are in an era where the last two years Woodhead has played whole seasons he's been a top 12 RB and he averaged 6.3 carries game in that stretch. In 2014 if Matt Forte did not have a single carry he would have outscored all but 11 RB's.  So much more to output and fantasy scoring than what you do as a runner.

 
MattFancy said:
Might want to recount Freeman's carries over the last 5 weeks. He had 98 carries for 292 yards. Not sure where you got 45 from. He had 72 carries just in the final 3 games.
Click to expand...
I meant Coleman, not Freeman and this is really splitting hairs but Freeman was 97/297.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
MattFancy said:
Either way, you can't tell me with looking at Freeman's stats that his numbers didn't go down as the season went on. 55% of his rushing yards came in 1/3 of the games he played. That's not sustainable as he showed last season.
Click to expand...
It's not abnormal for RB stats to be front loaded in good games. Looking at top rushers and finding top floor(games played / 3) games

ADP 748 of 1485 (50.4%)

Martin 697 of 1402 (49.7%)

Gurley 578 of 1106 (52.3%)

DMC 609 of 1098 (55.5%)

Ivory 603 of 1070 (56.3%)

Latavius 519 of 1066 (48.7%)

That doesn't speak to the narrative that he wore down or had a bad 2nd half of the season or played tentative after the concussion.

 
MattFancy said:
Pro-Football-Reference has 98.

Either way, you can't tell me with looking at Freeman's stats that his numbers didn't go down as the season went on. 55% of his rushing yards came in 1/3 of the games he played. That's not sustainable as he showed last season.
Click to expand...
Adds up to 97 if you look at his game logs but no need to get caught up the minutia.

The 55% of his rushing stats in 1/3rd of his games is, to me, playing with stats to prove a point. He only started and finished 12 games so the two games he was not starting and game he barely played are obviously going to be less. In those 12 full games his best 3 games accounted for 42% of his rushing. That is high but Peterson was 30% using same 3 best game formula. Gurley's top 3 rushing games accounted for 40% of his yards, but like Freeman he should get a discount for limited time in some games. I consider Peterson and Gurley the two best rushers in the NFL which is why I used them as examples. Using less talented runners but top 10 fantasy RB's as examples we see Martin was at 35% using this arbitrary 3 game measure and Ingram was 39% despite only going over 100 in one game. Seems fairly typical for upper echelon NFL RB's to get 30-40% of their production from cherry picked best 3 games, Freeman was just over this.

Never said Freeman's numbers did not go down. What I contend and have always contended is two things. One open to debate, the other not so much. The item open to debate was that he was outplayed by Coleman down the stretch, this I don't agree with because there is more to the picture than a part time back having a higher YPC. The part not open to debate was that he was still a good fantasy player down the stretch, even when his real life numbers took a hit.

 
thriftyrocker said:
It's not abnormal for RB stats to be front loaded in good games. Looking at top rushers and finding top floor(games played / 3) games

ADP 748 of 1485 (50.4%)

Martin 697 of 1402 (49.7%)

Gurley 578 of 1106 (52.3%)

DMC 609 of 1098 (55.5%)

Ivory 603 of 1070 (56.3%)

Latavius 519 of 1066 (48.7%)

That doesn't speak to the narrative that he wore down or had a bad 2nd half of the season or played tentative after the concussion.
Click to expand...
You're taking their best games, Freeman's stretch game in a 5 consecutive game stretch. Outside of those other games, he was just a normal RB.

And again, I'm not saying Freeman is going to be terrible this year. He just isn't someone I would put in the top 5 of RBs. I think he's closer to the bottom end of the RB1 tier than he is to the top end.

 
MattFancy said:
You're taking their best games, Freeman's stretch game in a 5 consecutive game stretch. Outside of those other games, he was just a normal RB.
Click to expand...
That's not quite right. It was a 7 game stretch where he had 141, 68, 153, 100, 116, 88 and > 4 ypc in each. 

 
I don't think Freeman played so well that he's able to make irrelevant Tevin Coleman, an RB who seemed to have outplayed him late in the season.  To that, there should be a modicum of uncertainty to Freemans draft value.  

 
menobrown said:
No I'm not wrong and feel like saying so is utter BS and it's not the first time you've done that. Feel free to state that  in scoring systems you play he's not or something of that ilk but don't give me this " no he wasn't" crap because in leagues I'm in he was.

Have zero interest in you trying to turn this into another anti-PPR tirade  or what system is the antiquated one. 
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: Then don't make a blanket statement that isn't true. If you said "he was a top performer in 1PPR leagues", then sure. Or if you said "he was a top performer in my specific leagues." But you didn't say that. You dropped a blanket statement and as such it was NOT true. I'm not trying to start an argument about ppr. Just pointing out the facts, which by definition, is the opposite of "utter BS." One might say the statement invalidated by facts is the item that is utter BS.

 
Slapdash said:
Wouldn't put him lower than 5.  The whole Atlanta team pretty much collapsed the last half of the season.  The offensive line is likely to be very improved with the arrival of Mack.  Seeing him at the end of top-10 is putting him near his realistic floor (assuming health) given how strong he is in the passing game.
Click to expand...
I totally agree Mack is a huge addition, but those other concerns are still significant. What if Coleman turns this into a full fledged RBBC? What if Coleman is averaging 4.6 ypc and Freeman 4.0? I wouldn't be surprised if there is a changing of the guard by week 10 if something like that is going on.

 
killface said:
Neither here nor there.  It's all opinion until the season starts.  I am wary of a guy that average under 3ypc down the stretch some are not...to each there own and we will some come the season
Click to expand...
It's not unusual for guys to have iffy stretches.  Adrian Peterson averaged 3.5ypc in his last 6 games last year.

 
Thunderlips said:
I don't think Freeman played so well that he's able to make irrelevant Tevin Coleman, an RB who seemed to have outplayed him late in the season.  To that, there should be a modicum of uncertainty to Freemans draft value.  
Click to expand...
Well yeah, but he's a RB in 2016.  How many of those don't have a modicum of uncertainty?  One?

 
Lots of warning signs for Freeman however the upside is proven...one of the tougher calls this year IMHO.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
FF Ninja said:
:rolleyes: Then don't make a blanket statement that isn't true. If you said "he was a top performer in 1PPR leagues", then sure. Or if you said "he was a top performer in my specific leagues." But you didn't say that. You dropped a blanket statement and as such it was NOT true. I'm not trying to start an argument about ppr. Just pointing out the facts, which by definition, is the opposite of "utter BS." One might say the statement invalidated by facts is the item that is utter BS.
Click to expand...
Your facts are not true but thank goodness for the block feature on this site. Take up your anti-PPR gripe with someone who cares.

 
Slapdash said:
Over 10 points in game in standard (16 in PPR) is absolutely awful?
Click to expand...
no it isn't.  If you're only looking at rushing stats, he was pretty bad after week 7 but if you expect him to maintain his receiving stats, his floor will be high.  Not quite Woodhead or Sproles but not too far removed from those guys (which have been surprisingly good).  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bengals and Falcons with similar RB groups and Gio is a LOT cheaper than Freeman.

FF Ninja said:
I totally agree Mack is a huge addition, but those other concerns are still significant. What if Coleman turns this into a full fledged RBBC? What if Coleman is averaging 4.6 ypc and Freeman 4.0? I wouldn't be surprised if there is a changing of the guard by week 10 if something like that is going on.
Click to expand...
personally, I'm taking Coleman any chance I get at his ADP.  Even more so if I happen to take Freeman early (which isn't likely).

 
TripItUp said:
Lot's of warning signs for Freeman however the upside is proven...one of the tougher calls this year IMHO.
Click to expand...
Exactly. We've seen what he can do, but with Coleman still lurking there (remember Coleman was the starter going into last season) and his rough stretch to end the season, there's definitely questions surrounding Freeman going into this year. Same can be said for most at this point, I would just prefer someone a little safer with Freeman's ADP. I'm not staying away from him, but I'm not taking him where he's being drafted. And if I do take him, I'll overpay a little to take Coleman too.

 
menobrown said:
Your facts are not true but thank goodness for the block feature on this site. Take up your anti-PPR gripe with someone who cares.
Click to expand...
You're a riot. You said Freeman "was still one of the top fantasy RB's during this "pedestrian" looking stretch". I said that blanket statement was not true. Just looking at FBG stats can substantiate my claim which means your statement is indeed incorrect, but good try on the attempt to deflect attention from your BS by focusing on my mention of the ppr scoring system. I like how you make up utter BS and then claim people calling you on your crap are the ones with "utter BS".

Quick recap: your blanket statement was BS, however Freeman was indeed a good fantasy player in some specific formats during his low ypc stretch.

 
MattFancy said:
Exactly. We've seen what he can do, but with Coleman still lurking there (remember Coleman was the starter going into last season) and his rough stretch to end the season, there's definitely questions surrounding Freeman going into this year. Same can be said for most at this point, I would just prefer someone a little safer with Freeman's ADP. I'm not staying away from him, but I'm not taking him where he's being drafted. And if I do take him, I'll overpay a little to take Coleman too.
Click to expand...
Having to use (i.e. waste) another valuable high pick to grab the handcuff is certainly another good reason to let some one else grab that player in the first place. 

 
People cite yards per carry as if that is a meaningful statistic a lot. I came across this interesting article awhile ago that talks about how large of a sample size do we need for this data to be meaningful?

That’s right: It takes 177 games for the average RB’s YPC to stabilize. Translating that to number of carries, the vomit-inducing number is 1,978.5 So going back to McKinnon, 90 carries thus far in his Vikings career means that, in order to get a decent gauge on his True YPC, we have to hope that we get to see 168 games or 1,888 more carries from him in Minnesota. To put that in perspective, Frank Gore is easily the longest-tenured RB with his current team, and yet there’s this: a) He has yet to play 177 games in San Francisco, and b) it took him 10 seasons to reach 1,978 carries.
Click to expand...

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Having to use (i.e. waste) another valuable high pick to grab the handcuff is certainly another good reason to let some one else grab that player in the first place. 
Click to expand...
unless he's risen a lot lately, Coleman goes around the 12th round in a 12 team draft. 

I wouldn't disagree with your point but how many RBs do you feel comfortable with not taking their handcuff?  

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Joe Bryant
Round One Losers and Winners - Sigmund Bloom
Replies
39
Views
2K
Golden Gopher
Golden Gopher
socrates
Crazy Early Dynasty Rookie PPR Draft Board (2023 Updated Rankings Page 5)
3 4 5
Replies
213
Views
17K
socrates
socrates
daylight
2020 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings
3 4 5
Replies
222
Views
14K
Adso
A

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top