What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Who are your 2016 "reaches" or "buy highs"? (1 Viewer)

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
As a general rule, the key to winning in FF is acquiring surplus value. During draft time, this means focusing on guys who have fallen too far relative to the risk-adjusted performance they're likely to deliver, and avoiding those whose ceilings are already baked into their draft slot. Repeatedly reaching in drafts "to get my guy" is a rookie strategy.

But every year, everyone should have a handful of guys they're willing to "buy high" on - to reach a round or two or spend an extra $3-5 on in an auction, even though their ADP might already be higher than what you expected coming in and/or what they've historically delivered.

Who are your "buy high" candidates in 2016 redrafts? Not the best values, but guys you want on most of your teams even if you have to pay full price or more? I'll throw a few of mine out there to get things rolling (current ADPs from FantasyPros):

QB: Jameis Winston (QB17) - If you got your information solely from summertime fantasy podcasts, you'd be sure this guy was going in the top 10 by now. Even with scattershot efficiency last year he was a fringe QB1, and with three 6'5'"+ options out there, even a marginal accuracy improvement should yield big benefits in the red zone. His willingness to scramble and Newton-esque physique add underrated rushing upside, especially in 4-pt PTD leagues. If I miss out on this year's big Tier 3 of Brees (QB6) through Rivers (QB11), I have absolutely no problem taking Winston next off the board.

RB: Lamar Miller (RB7) - Pro tip: Lamar Miller is really good. He's never averaged less than 4 YPC in a season, and he finished RB6 in standard scoring last year, despite the dumpster-fire Dolphins finishing dead last in the NFL in rushing attempts. The Texans, by contrast, finished 5th in the league in that category, despite putting up 3.7 yards of futility on average when they did. They paid Brock Osweiler on the come, and Bill O'Brien should be happy to gradually phase in the pass game while Brock learns the ropes in Houston. Frankly, their only real shot to make a repeat playoff appearance is to control the clock and lean on their D, just like last year - the difference this time around is they won't have to rely on Alfred Blue and Chris Polk for the former. I'll take Miller anywhere I sit in the 2nd and think he could push for RB1 overall.

WR: Donte Moncrief (WR32) - Since Luck lost Wayne after his rookie season, the Colts have been desperately trying to make T.Y. Hilton into something he's not: a true #1. Well, this is the year Moncrief steps into those shoes and Hilton goes back to doing what he's best at - stretching defenses and catching long TDs. Moncrief's big, he's fast, he's polished, and he was above-average against every type of coverage, on nearly every route type he ran. TL;DR version: he's this year's Allen Robinson. Happy to make him the first WR3 off the board in 12-teamers and think he could still be a steal at that price.

(/in before a half-dozen people throw out Josh Gordon's name. Yes, as I type he's still listed at WR54 on FP, but really, c'mon now,.) 

TE: Coby Fleener (TE7) - Another guy who's up a half-dozen spots since free agency ended, but considering his ceiling it still may be too low. (And TE ceiling is far more important than floor in typical 1-TE leagues, since there will always be middling options for you available on the WW.) I like Michael Thomas well enough, but IMO Fleener steps right in as the default #2 option and primary RZ target for a team we all know is going to chuck the ball 600+ times. We'll watch Graham continue to struggle in SEA, Watson flame out in BAL, and Fleener go for 75/900/10 in NO, and finally realize that, yes, it's Brees who makes his TEs, not the other way 'round. I'll reach into the top 5 for him if I have to.

 
Ezekiel Elliot - I think he's going to have a monster year behind that offensive line.  If I don't have a top 5 pick for AB, Odell, Julio, Gronk or Gurley I'm strongly considering him at 6...especially if he looks good in the preseason.

Kevin White - Love his physical abilities.  Plus the Bears will suck meaning Cutler will be airing it out alot

Jared Cook - The Packers offense will bounce back and the Pack haven't had a legit threat at TE sinc Finley.  While he's no Gronk or Reed I could see him putting up 800 yards and 8 Tds.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I sold high on Fleener in Dynasty.  Brees has 2 years max.  And there is no promise he will produce. 

I'm reaching for Carlos Hyde, Phillip Dorsett, and Maxx Williams.  I think all three will out-produce their current ADP. 

 
RB: Lamar Miller (RB7) - Pro tip: Lamar Miller is really good. He's never averaged less than 4 YPC in a season, and he finished RB6 in standard scoring last year, despite the dumpster-fire Dolphins finishing dead last in the NFL in rushing attempts. The Texans, by contrast, finished 5th in the league in that category, despite putting up 3.7 yards of futility on average when they did. They paid Brock Osweiler on the come, and Bill O'Brien should be happy to gradually phase in the pass game while Brock learns the ropes in Houston. Frankly, their only real shot to make a repeat playoff appearance is to control the clock and lean on their D, just like last year - the difference this time around is they won't have to rely on Alfred Blue and Chris Polk for the former. I'll take Miller anywhere I sit in the 2nd and think he could push for RB1 overall.
I have pick 7 in my only redraft and this may be my first round "reach". I'm very high on him and don't think he'll make it back to Round 2. With Bell likely dropping out of the top 6 I think Brown, OBJ, Julio, Hopkins, Gronk and either Gurley or David Johnson will be gone. I may stay true to my projections/rankings and grab Miller, ADP be damned.

 
nice post OP although i dont agree with fleener drastically outproducing his ADP.  I'd agree with max power that hyde has the chance to greatly outproduce ADP.  

\just preusing some ESPN rankings i actually like the potential of most of the rBs they have between 15 and 25.

 
Great post.  The only one I'd argue against is Moncrief.  I think he is what he is.  A middling WR in a high upside passing offense.  I don't think his upside is close to Robinsons, and as long as TY is there he'll be the focus.  He's a great WR3, serviceable WR2, but I'll go on record that he simply doesn't have WR1 upside.

 
QB - Tyrod Taylor, and not a homer pick, just knowing he is playing for a payday is reason enough

RB - Coleman, Freeman a bit overhyped for me, will probably reach a bit early to grab Coleman

WR- Golden Tate, numbers with Megatron out or decoy are tough to ignore

TE- M Bennett, just remembering when it was Gronk and the killer and I'll take that production again from Bennett

 
Here's mine based on position:

QB - Eli Manning. He seemed to really be comfortable last year in McAdoo's offense and now gets another year with him, still OBJ and adds Sterling Shepard. He was QB7 last year and certainly has potential to finish in the Top 5. I'd take him over guys like Palmer, Bortles, and Brady. His current ADP is QB10.

RB - Gio Bernard, current ADP of RB25. In PPR, he just seems like a safe bet to finish around the Top 15, especially if Eifert misses time at the beginning of the year.

WR - Marvin Jones, current ADP of WR37. Golden Tate will see tougher coverage as Detroit's #1, which should free up looks for Jones. The Lions will definitely throw the ball a bunch, so there's targets to be had for someone that is currently go in the 8th rounds of drafts.

TE - Dwayne Allen, current ADP of TE15. With Fleener finally out of the picture, he should be a favorite target of Luck's, especially in the red zone. You can wait a bit and still get a nice TE. I'd take him over some of the guys going ahead of him like Gates, Bennett, and Graham.

 
Here's mine based on position:

QB - Eli Manning. He seemed to really be comfortable last year in McAdoo's offense and now gets another year with him, still OBJ and adds Sterling Shepard. He was QB7 last year and certainly has potential to finish in the Top 5. I'd take him over guys like Palmer, Bortles, and Brady. His current ADP is QB10.

RB - Gio Bernard, current ADP of RB25. In PPR, he just seems like a safe bet to finish around the Top 15, especially if Eifert misses time at the beginning of the year.

WR - Marvin Jones, current ADP of WR37. Golden Tate will see tougher coverage as Detroit's #1, which should free up looks for Jones. The Lions will definitely throw the ball a bunch, so there's targets to be had for someone that is currently go in the 8th rounds of drafts.

TE - Dwayne Allen, current ADP of TE15. With Fleener finally out of the picture, he should be a favorite target of Luck's, especially in the red zone. You can wait a bit and still get a nice TE. I'd take him over some of the guys going ahead of him like Gates, Bennett, and Graham.
Also moving to a team that throws the ball a higher % than his old team.

 
Coleman down in Atlanta is the kind of Rb that can win you a league and be cheap in getting to boot but, admittedly, he needs some luck.

As much as I don't ever like the guy or think twice about him, I think at this particular time, a guy like Demarco Murray might be a steal also. So, in the "reach" sense, maybe you go after him. 

The player I would buy high on all day, regardless of cost is the obvious: Antonio.  The advantage with him is very hard to deal with.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
QB - Jameis Winston.  I'm on board with Winston as well.  Think he finishes in the top 8 QBs this year.  

RB - Tevin Coleman.  I think he is better than Freeman straight up and will end up as the lead back in Atlanta sooner rather than later.  I will buy him a round or two before ADP to make sure I get him.  

WR - Michael Floyd.  Came on strong last year and I expect that to carry over to a monster season this year.  I expect that he leads the Cardinals in yards and TDs this year and vastly outperforms his ADP.

TE - Will Tye.  Probable starting TE for an offense lacking proven playmakers outside of Beckham.  Wouldn't be surprised to see him end up in the top 10 this year.  

 
QB: Marcus Mariota

Do the Titans want to be a run first team?  Yes. But Mariota for whatever reason seems to get undersold for the fact that they used the #2 overall pick on him in 2015 and he performed more than capably.  Projected out over a full season and his numbers are really good...and it's not like it was because he had tons of opportunity.  He showed the ability to produce efficiently.  

RB: DeAngelo Williams

If I'm drafting toward the end of Round 1 - I'm considering Le'Veon with that pick or on the come back.  if I do that - then I spend a 4th on DeAngelo.  Ask yourself this - WOuld you trade your 1:11 pick and 4th rounder for 1:2?  Not only do you get Le'Veon, you get his insurance.  So it's not like just drafting Gurley at 1:2/1:3 right now and worrying about securing his handcuff.  DeAngelo in Weeks 1-4 is a bonafide top tier RB1.  Get your season off to a good start.

WR: Larry Fitzgerald

On FFC, he is WR30.  'Nuff said.

TE: Zach Ertz

Last 9 games - 56/646/2.  Granted, we're not in Chip Kelly's fast-paced offense.  But Doug Pederson made good use of Travis Kelce.  Ertz going TE12 at the moment, but I see him as having nice breakout potential.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
RB: DeAngelo Williams

If I'm drafting toward the end of Round 1 - I'm considering Le'Veon with that pick or on the come back.  if I do that - then I spend a 4th on DeAngelo.  Ask yourself this - WOuld you trade your 1:11 pick and 4th rounder for 1:2?  Not only do you get Le'Veon, you get his insurance.  So it's not like just drafting Gurley at 1:2/1:3 right now and worrying about securing his handcuff.  DeAngelo in Weeks 1-4 is a bonafide top tier RB1.  Get your season off to a good start.
Just curious. If Bell's side of the story turns out to be true and he avoids suspension . . . then wait? Is DWill worth a 4th round pick? I'd guess no. I have no idea what will happen here, but some members of the media have Bell 100% suspended, which I am not sure that is the case. Again, it may well end up like that, but at this point things are murky.

For all we know, Bell could never have failed a drug test (IIRC, his suspension was from a motor vehicle incident, not failing a drug test). Maybe that matters, maybe it doesn't.

 
Just curious. If Bell's side of the story turns out to be true and he avoids suspension . . . then wait? Is DWill worth a 4th round pick? I'd guess no. I have no idea what will happen here, but some members of the media have Bell 100% suspended, which I am not sure that is the case. Again, it may well end up like that, but at this point things are murky.

For all we know, Bell could never have failed a drug test (IIRC, his suspension was from a motor vehicle incident, not failing a drug test). Maybe that matters, maybe it doesn't.
What we know now is that Bell is suspended for 4 games.  So my view on Williams is based on Bell having to serve that suspension.  

If Bell's suspension were to get overturned, I'm assuming he's not there at 1:11 as well.

 
Max Power said:
Brees has 2 years max.  And there is no promise he will produce. 
Wat? You need to unpack this, You are talking about a guy that has thrown for AT LEAST 4,800 yes, 32 TDs and 1 rush TD the past five seasons.  

I think he easily out produces his ADP this year, with a chance as the #1QB overall. 

 
Wat? You need to unpack this, You are talking about a guy that has thrown for AT LEAST 4,800 yes, 32 TDs and 1 rush TD the past five seasons.  

I think he easily out produces his ADP this year, with a chance as the #1QB overall. 
I think Brees has a chance to be the #1 and has a chance to really #### the bed this year.  He looked average for chunks of last year and then maybe carried a fantasy team to the championship with his stellar performances in WK 13-16.  If Thomas is legit....he'll have more consistency. 

 
Fleecer down? Cooks and Snead have another year of experience so their play should also improve. Plenty of weapons and a suspect defense.

The only chance of Bress #### the bed is if he gets hurt. Otherwise he is $$$. 

 
Fleecer down? Cooks and Snead have another year of experience so their play should also improve. Plenty of weapons and a suspect defense.

The only chance of Bress #### the bed is if he gets hurt. Otherwise he is $$$. 
I don't think Coby Fleener has blown anyones skirt up since he's been in the NFL.  He's been "wishful thinking" or "this guy looks like a player so he must be" or "he's had a good QB so there's no reason he shouldn't succeed in the NFL" since he's entered the league.  The next time that Fleener is "up" will be the first time.  

And while I'm not as down on Brees as some....he wasn't exactly automatic last year; particularly at the beginning of the year. He was barely average for the first half or so; to the points that his play probably dug his owners a hole that they had to climb out of and had his owners looking elsewhere for QB points.

Cooks and Snead were inconsistent as well; but they should probably improve.

To that, maybe there was something that NO did after those first 6-8 games that righted the ship( if there was let me know).....or maybe that was just a HoF QB starting to play like a 37 year old. 

 
I think Brees has a chance to be the #1 and has a chance to really #### the bed this year.  He looked average for chunks of last year and then maybe carried a fantasy team to the championship with his stellar performances in WK 13-16.  If Thomas is legit....he'll have more consistency. 
So I haven't done the work, but I think you have to examine the o line year over year....his clunkers came from games with zero pocket.  given he was relying on a 50 year old tight end for a good chunk of production, I would tend to think the arrow is pointing up.

 
RB---Duke Johnson. Crowell is just a guy, and Duke has a legit chance to catch at least 60 balls. I think he's the unquestioned starter and a top 10 RB in PPR.

WR--Love Moncrief as well, but I'm going with Mike Evans being the biggest breakout WR this year. Target share, ascending QB, and new coach that wants to air it out. 

TE-- Eric Ebron---absolute physical freak and a lot of targets available with Megatron out, especially in the red zone. Love him to make the leap after everyone has given up on him. 

Jameis Winston is also my QB, for many of the reasons that have already been mentioned.

 
Ebron is not a physical freak. Very decent measurablea but nothing jaw dropping. Hee actually doesn't possess the ideal bulk or muscle mass to be a great blocker. But he does have great agility & athleticism, is a good route runner, has a nice catch radius. He has always been plagued by drops but the thing to like about him is he catches the ball with his hands away from his body instead of trapping against his body. Because of his route running and body control he has the potential to continue his progression from streaming option to solid TE1. Could definitely see him in the TE4-TE8 range this year (TE13 last season.) 

i like where Dion Lewis' ADP is at; it'll start dropping, but right now in mocks I love reaching for him in the 5th.

Like the Tyrod call. Saw most of his games last year & liked his decision making in his first year starting. I could see him improving  if Watkins & McCoy both stay healthy.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Abdullah - ADP is mid 6th and RB28. I would take him in late 4th. Think he gets work this year.

Parker - ADP in late 6th and WR32. I would take him in 5th. Breakout candidate with good floor assuming he's healthy. Obvious gap in dynasty value/redraft value.

Cousins - ADP is 10th and QB14. I would take him in 8th. Playing for contract, bad run game. Not predicting a breakout but should be similar to last year and he's not priced as such.

Zach Miller - ADP in 13th and TE18. I would take him earlier if I took a shaky starter or ended up with Eifert who might miss the first few weeks. Seems like a good bet for this year's Barnidge given the offense.

Other guys I like vs. their ADP: Artis-Payne, Morris, Michael (basically every unheralded backup RB in a good sitation), Brate, Gabbert, Jordan Matthews

 
Wat? You need to unpack this, You are talking about a guy that has thrown for AT LEAST 4,800 yes, 32 TDs and 1 rush TD the past five seasons.  

I think he easily out produces his ADP this year, with a chance as the #1QB overall. 
Sorry, talking about Fleener for that comment.  I think Brees will be Brees for another year or two.  After that its a crap shoot.

 
One guy that I think is being overlooked this season is Matthew Stafford.    Tate, Abdullah, Ebron, Riddick and now Boldin are all solid pass catching weapons on a team that tends to pass a lot.   On fantasy pros ADP--he's the 17th qb coming off the board and I can easily see him being top 10-12.   If you are waiting on qb this season--I like him a lot.

 I also like him if you are planning on drafting Tom Brady.   Brady is the 9th qb coming off the board--and people tend to forget that he's been a top 3 fantasy qb last season---and if I remember right--he was top 2-3 in the second half of the year before that.   I guess this would make Brady another guy to look at---and if you do---I think Stafford is the perfect player to couple with him. 

 
RB - Tevin Coleman.  I think he is better than Freeman straight up and will end up as the lead back in Atlanta sooner rather than later.  I will buy him a round or two before ADP to make sure I get him.  
Not a chance.  Freeman was a beast (1600 total yds and 14 TDs) and should continue to be so.  Coleman will get more carries than last year but don't expect a breakout unless Freeman gets hurt.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Not a chance.  Freeman was a beast (1600 total yds and 14 TDs) and should continue to be so.  Coleman will get more carries than last year but don't expect a breakout unless Freeman gets hurt.
I'm not saying Coleman is anything to write home about, but I suspect Freeman sees a drop off from last year. From Week 7 on, he ranked 13th in ppg. He averaged 2 TD a game for a month stretch in the early going. He only scored 4 times the rest of the way. He should still get yards and touches, but I am not sure he'll see 14 TD again this year.

 
I'm not saying Coleman is anything to write home about, but I suspect Freeman sees a drop off from last year. From Week 7 on, he ranked 13th in ppg. He averaged 2 TD a game for a month stretch in the early going. He only scored 4 times the rest of the way. He should still get yards and touches, but I am not sure he'll see 14 TD again this year.
You might be right that Freeman could see a dip in what he did last year, but that doesn't mean Coleman will suddenly be a breakout candidate.  Freeman did run out of steam late due to the 330+ touches, so a bump in Coleman touches may just keep Freeman fresh all year and that dip late may not happen again in 2016.  Hell, 50 extra touches for Coleman can help Freeman, not hurt him.

 
Old guy values:

Brees led the NFL in passing yards once again, returns the same young receivers with more experience, and replaced Watson and Colston with two younger big bodies in Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener.  He is a lock top 5 qb with qb1 upside.  

Darren mcfadden is coming off a season where he had 239 rushes for 1089 yards in a partial year.  Alfred Morris is coming off 202 for 751.  Yet they are both going in the 13th round, after jerrick mckinnon.  Give me mcfadden as a late round upside play if elliott gets hurt or suspended.  Could win you your league from the back of the draft.

Forget last year, which was awesome.  In the last 4 years, Brandon Marshall has 388 receptions for 5026 yards and 45 tds.  That's an average of 97 catches, 1256 yards and 11 tds, even including his injured 2014 season. Geno played one game last year.  Marshall had 9 catches for 108 yards.  Fitzpatrick came in late last year, too, so it's not like that matters either.  It doesn't really matter which one plays - Marshall is a value in the third round and easily worth a second round pick.  

I predict 8 touchdowns.  That's how many Gates needs to pass tony gonzalez for most toichdowns by a tight end.  Rivers has already said that's a team goal.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him get more than 8.  He had 56/630/5 last year in 12 games due to the suspension - thats a pace for 75/840/7.  He's lasting until the late 11th.  Great value pick if you want to load up at rb and wr early in the draft.

 
I find the Freeman adp and upcoming season fascinating. I can't ever remember a young back that put up a season like that who was so dismissed the next year without a catastrophic injury. If the situation was reversed and Coleman was the #1 RB in fantasy after Freeman got hurt, I think no matter what any coach said about getting Freeman involved, Coleman would be a top 6 pick. 

 
Reaches

Based on current adp:

Ebron: going round 13. If I am waiting on TE and miss Gates, I will jump a round or 2 to get Ebron. I think he projects right into a Ben Watson, Travis Kelce type year. Noting that will blow you away, but enough ahead of streaming to be a weekly starter. 

Deandre Washington: going round 12. If I don't love the guys available at around 10 or 11, I'll take Washington since I think he has a golden opportunity.

That is about it really. Reaching for guys is bad. 

Buy Highs

There are a lot of guys I would take in the first 4 rounds. My first round list is OBJ, Brown, Julio, Gronk, DJ, Gurley, EE, Charles. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Josh Gordon , Tom Brady , Jay Ajayi, Matt Jones , Carlos Hyde, Ezekiel Elliott, Brock Osweiler, D. Hopkins, CJ Anderson,  Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy, Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed,  to name a few..

 
I find the Freeman adp and upcoming season fascinating. I can't ever remember a young back that put up a season like that who was so dismissed the next year without a catastrophic injury. If the situation was reversed and Coleman was the #1 RB in fantasy after Freeman got hurt, I think no matter what any coach said about getting Freeman involved, Coleman would be a top 6 pick. 
Agree whole-heartedly.

Lot of folks completely ignoring how overworked Freeman was last year.  If he plays all 16 games, Freeman is a shoo-in for 300 touches of which 50 could be receptions.  Amazing he's going a full round below David Johnson.

 
I'm not saying Coleman is anything to write home about, but I suspect Freeman sees a drop off from last year. From Week 7 on, he ranked 13th in ppg. He averaged 2 TD a game for a month stretch in the early going. He only scored 4 times the rest of the way. He should still get yards and touches, but I am not sure he'll see 14 TD again this year.
I keep hearing about the late season slump and admittedly havent done the research to know...is there a correlation in historical stats that a late season slump in year n = a poorer year in n+1?

In other words if Freeman would have slumped in the first half of the season and went off in the 2nd half of the season would he then be a top 5 type talent going into this year even though the stats were the same?

Or is this 2nd half slump talk just the Coleman owners hoping??

 
I keep hearing about the late season slump and admittedly havent done the research to know...is there a correlation in historical stats that a late season slump in year n = a poorer year in n+1?

In other words if Freeman would have slumped in the first half of the season and went off in the 2nd half of the season would he then be a top 5 type talent going into this year even though the stats were the same?

Or is this 2nd half slump talk just the Coleman owners hoping??
great question.  Would love to see someone come up with this data too.  I guess the common argument would be that its how you finish that is your 'true talent, once teams have learned about you, etc"

But not sure if there's much momentum carried over from week 16 to week 1 of the next year.

 
Bruce Ellington.

ADP is 251.  He's WR80.  I think he'll do much better in Chip Kelly's offense.  I could see him at a WR4, maybe in the 60 receps/800 yds/5 TDs area.

 
great question.  Would love to see someone come up with this data too.  I guess the common argument would be that its how you finish that is your 'true talent, once teams have learned about you, etc"

But not sure if there's much momentum carried over from week 16 to week 1 of the next year.
No data here, just subjective so take it with a grain of salt. We do see RBs  that don't play much in the early season come in late and do very well. To me, that rarely seems to translate to the next season. I call that the Kevin Jones. Perhaps it is a fresh guy playing against worn defenses. Perhaps some kind of beginners luck where defenses haven't figured out how the RB likes to play. Maybe it's not even real and it's just something that I remember because of a few guys that did it and busted so strongly.

As for guys showing decay over the course of the year, I don't think there would be any negative momentum for the next year. To me it would be more of a sign that the player physically wore down over the grind of the season. It's something that was a problem with Ameer Abdullah in college. Every year his yards, efficiency, etc. trended down as the year wore on. Part of this is the increase in level of defenses, but I do think there are going to be certain players that lose efficiency over the course of the year as their touches increase. A back that is smaller would seem to be a candidate for that type of decay in efficiency. 

 
I sold high on Fleener in Dynasty.  Brees has 2 years max.  And there is no promise he will produce. 

I'm reaching for Carlos Hyde, Phillip Dorsett, and Maxx Williams.  I think all three will out-produce their current ADP. 
this is what makes these type of threads tough when people start bringing dynasty persuaded comments into a redraft thread.....(Fleener)....it almost makes it seem like the poster is down on Fleener cause he isn't on his roster anymore......when in actuality it's pretty easy to see that for redraft purposes, Fleener has gone to TE heaven....look no further than Ben Watson....

I love me some Fleener...but the tough thing is even the casual fantasy player is going to recognize his heaven like situation and snag him at some point.....almost a battle of reaches with him....

like Dorsett too....I'll be staying away from the BAL Te spot even though there may be fantasy points to be had there.....lots of bodies... 

 
Here's mine based on position:

QB - Eli Manning. He seemed to really be comfortable last year in McAdoo's offense and now gets another year with him, still OBJ and adds Sterling Shepard. He was QB7 last year and certainly has potential to finish in the Top 5. I'd take him over guys like Palmer, Bortles, and Brady. His current ADP is QB10.

RB - Gio Bernard, current ADP of RB25. In PPR, he just seems like a safe bet to finish around the Top 15, especially if Eifert misses time at the beginning of the year.

WR - Marvin Jones, current ADP of WR37. Golden Tate will see tougher coverage as Detroit's #1, which should free up looks for Jones. The Lions will definitely throw the ball a bunch, so there's targets to be had for someone that is currently go in the 8th rounds of drafts.

TE - Dwayne Allen, current ADP of TE15. With Fleener finally out of the picture, he should be a favorite target of Luck's, especially in the red zone. You can wait a bit and still get a nice TE. I'd take him over some of the guys going ahead of him like Gates, Bennett, and Graham.
love all these except for Gio....good post

 
Old guy values:

Darren mcfadden is coming off a season where he had 239 rushes for 1089 yards in a partial year.  Alfred Morris is coming off 202 for 751.  Yet they are both going in the 13th round, after jerrick mckinnon.  Give me mcfadden as a late round upside play if elliott gets hurt or suspended.  Could win you your league from the back of the draft.
Flawed thinking here on DMC vs Morris. DMC was running behind the best O-line in the league, Morris was in a system that didn't fit his strengths and behind a crappy running O-line. They're on the same team this year. Last year's YPC means nothing. The passing game is the only area that I think McFadden trumps Morris.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Flawed thinking here on DMC vs Morris. DMC was running behind the best O-line in the league, Morris was in a system that didn't fit his strengths and behind a crappy running O-line. They're on the same team this year. Last year's YPC means nothing. The passing game is the only area that I think McFadden trumps Morris.
Take both then.  Or just morris.  For my money i think mcfadden is the direct backup but the point remains, hard to find higher upside than the dallas backup rb in the 13th round.  

 
One other guy that I really like that the fantasy community seems oddly lukewarm on is Doug Baldwin.  Currently he is WR23 on FFC.

Alot of folks are talking about a regression based on his late season surge.And no doubt, his 2015 was a tale of two halves:

1st half: 31 Receptions/40 Targets/345 Yards/11.1 YPR/2 TD's
2nd half: 47 receptions/64 Targets/724 Yards/15.4 YPR/12 TD's

It's almost like this was two completely different receivers...with one exception.  Catch rate.  For the most part, Baldwin was around 75%.  To be fair, Baldwin has always had a pretty solid catch rate.  Consider though that if you project Baldwin's 2nd half stats over a full 16-game season, he still would have only wound up with 128 targets (which would have placed him 21st in the NFL).

What we know about Russell Wilson is that he's an extremely efficient QB.  When Marshawn got hurt, the Seahawks changed to being an offense with him at the center of it.  And even with Baldwin's monstrous 2nd half, he only was the recipient of 25.7% of the Seahawks targets.

Now I certainly don't expect Baldwin to keep up his TD production like he did, and let's even split the difference on his YPR and tag a fair assessment of his potential at 13.2.  As the Seahawks most experienced WR and one who now has 5 seasons of experience with his QB (trust factor), let's assume that 125 targets is very reasonable.  And let's reduce his catch rate to 70%.  That means he's in the 87-88 reception range.  That puts his yardage at 1150.  That production would be more in line with WR12-13.  

...and I feel like I was fairly conservative.

 
One other guy that I really like that the fantasy community seems oddly lukewarm on is Doug Baldwin.  Currently he is WR23 on FFC.

Alot of folks are talking about a regression based on his late season surge.And no doubt, his 2015 was a tale of two halves:

1st half: 31 Receptions/40 Targets/345 Yards/11.1 YPR/2 TD's
2nd half: 47 receptions/64 Targets/724 Yards/15.4 YPR/12 TD's

It's almost like this was two completely different receivers...with one exception.  Catch rate.  For the most part, Baldwin was around 75%.  To be fair, Baldwin has always had a pretty solid catch rate.  Consider though that if you project Baldwin's 2nd half stats over a full 16-game season, he still would have only wound up with 128 targets (which would have placed him 21st in the NFL).

What we know about Russell Wilson is that he's an extremely efficient QB.  When Marshawn got hurt, the Seahawks changed to being an offense with him at the center of it.  And even with Baldwin's monstrous 2nd half, he only was the recipient of 25.7% of the Seahawks targets.

Now I certainly don't expect Baldwin to keep up his TD production like he did, and let's even split the difference on his YPR and tag a fair assessment of his potential at 13.2.  As the Seahawks most experienced WR and one who now has 5 seasons of experience with his QB (trust factor), let's assume that 125 targets is very reasonable.  And let's reduce his catch rate to 70%.  That means he's in the 87-88 reception range.  That puts his yardage at 1150.  That production would be more in line with WR12-13.  

...and I feel like I was fairly conservative.
Good observations here

:thumbup:

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top