Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
As a general rule, the key to winning in FF is acquiring surplus value. During draft time, this means focusing on guys who have fallen too far relative to the risk-adjusted performance they're likely to deliver, and avoiding those whose ceilings are already baked into their draft slot. Repeatedly reaching in drafts "to get my guy" is a rookie strategy.
But every year, everyone should have a handful of guys they're willing to "buy high" on - to reach a round or two or spend an extra $3-5 on in an auction, even though their ADP might already be higher than what you expected coming in and/or what they've historically delivered.
Who are your "buy high" candidates in 2016 redrafts? Not the best values, but guys you want on most of your teams even if you have to pay full price or more? I'll throw a few of mine out there to get things rolling (current ADPs from FantasyPros):
QB: Jameis Winston (QB17) - If you got your information solely from summertime fantasy podcasts, you'd be sure this guy was going in the top 10 by now. Even with scattershot efficiency last year he was a fringe QB1, and with three 6'5'"+ options out there, even a marginal accuracy improvement should yield big benefits in the red zone. His willingness to scramble and Newton-esque physique add underrated rushing upside, especially in 4-pt PTD leagues. If I miss out on this year's big Tier 3 of Brees (QB6) through Rivers (QB11), I have absolutely no problem taking Winston next off the board.
RB: Lamar Miller (RB7) - Pro tip: Lamar Miller is really good. He's never averaged less than 4 YPC in a season, and he finished RB6 in standard scoring last year, despite the dumpster-fire Dolphins finishing dead last in the NFL in rushing attempts. The Texans, by contrast, finished 5th in the league in that category, despite putting up 3.7 yards of futility on average when they did. They paid Brock Osweiler on the come, and Bill O'Brien should be happy to gradually phase in the pass game while Brock learns the ropes in Houston. Frankly, their only real shot to make a repeat playoff appearance is to control the clock and lean on their D, just like last year - the difference this time around is they won't have to rely on Alfred Blue and Chris Polk for the former. I'll take Miller anywhere I sit in the 2nd and think he could push for RB1 overall.
WR: Donte Moncrief (WR32) - Since Luck lost Wayne after his rookie season, the Colts have been desperately trying to make T.Y. Hilton into something he's not: a true #1. Well, this is the year Moncrief steps into those shoes and Hilton goes back to doing what he's best at - stretching defenses and catching long TDs. Moncrief's big, he's fast, he's polished, and he was above-average against every type of coverage, on nearly every route type he ran. TL;DR version: he's this year's Allen Robinson. Happy to make him the first WR3 off the board in 12-teamers and think he could still be a steal at that price.
(/in before a half-dozen people throw out Josh Gordon's name. Yes, as I type he's still listed at WR54 on FP, but really, c'mon now,.)
TE: Coby Fleener (TE7) - Another guy who's up a half-dozen spots since free agency ended, but considering his ceiling it still may be too low. (And TE ceiling is far more important than floor in typical 1-TE leagues, since there will always be middling options for you available on the WW.) I like Michael Thomas well enough, but IMO Fleener steps right in as the default #2 option and primary RZ target for a team we all know is going to chuck the ball 600+ times. We'll watch Graham continue to struggle in SEA, Watson flame out in BAL, and Fleener go for 75/900/10 in NO, and finally realize that, yes, it's Brees who makes his TEs, not the other way 'round. I'll reach into the top 5 for him if I have to.
But every year, everyone should have a handful of guys they're willing to "buy high" on - to reach a round or two or spend an extra $3-5 on in an auction, even though their ADP might already be higher than what you expected coming in and/or what they've historically delivered.
Who are your "buy high" candidates in 2016 redrafts? Not the best values, but guys you want on most of your teams even if you have to pay full price or more? I'll throw a few of mine out there to get things rolling (current ADPs from FantasyPros):
QB: Jameis Winston (QB17) - If you got your information solely from summertime fantasy podcasts, you'd be sure this guy was going in the top 10 by now. Even with scattershot efficiency last year he was a fringe QB1, and with three 6'5'"+ options out there, even a marginal accuracy improvement should yield big benefits in the red zone. His willingness to scramble and Newton-esque physique add underrated rushing upside, especially in 4-pt PTD leagues. If I miss out on this year's big Tier 3 of Brees (QB6) through Rivers (QB11), I have absolutely no problem taking Winston next off the board.
RB: Lamar Miller (RB7) - Pro tip: Lamar Miller is really good. He's never averaged less than 4 YPC in a season, and he finished RB6 in standard scoring last year, despite the dumpster-fire Dolphins finishing dead last in the NFL in rushing attempts. The Texans, by contrast, finished 5th in the league in that category, despite putting up 3.7 yards of futility on average when they did. They paid Brock Osweiler on the come, and Bill O'Brien should be happy to gradually phase in the pass game while Brock learns the ropes in Houston. Frankly, their only real shot to make a repeat playoff appearance is to control the clock and lean on their D, just like last year - the difference this time around is they won't have to rely on Alfred Blue and Chris Polk for the former. I'll take Miller anywhere I sit in the 2nd and think he could push for RB1 overall.
WR: Donte Moncrief (WR32) - Since Luck lost Wayne after his rookie season, the Colts have been desperately trying to make T.Y. Hilton into something he's not: a true #1. Well, this is the year Moncrief steps into those shoes and Hilton goes back to doing what he's best at - stretching defenses and catching long TDs. Moncrief's big, he's fast, he's polished, and he was above-average against every type of coverage, on nearly every route type he ran. TL;DR version: he's this year's Allen Robinson. Happy to make him the first WR3 off the board in 12-teamers and think he could still be a steal at that price.
(/in before a half-dozen people throw out Josh Gordon's name. Yes, as I type he's still listed at WR54 on FP, but really, c'mon now,.)
TE: Coby Fleener (TE7) - Another guy who's up a half-dozen spots since free agency ended, but considering his ceiling it still may be too low. (And TE ceiling is far more important than floor in typical 1-TE leagues, since there will always be middling options for you available on the WW.) I like Michael Thomas well enough, but IMO Fleener steps right in as the default #2 option and primary RZ target for a team we all know is going to chuck the ball 600+ times. We'll watch Graham continue to struggle in SEA, Watson flame out in BAL, and Fleener go for 75/900/10 in NO, and finally realize that, yes, it's Brees who makes his TEs, not the other way 'round. I'll reach into the top 5 for him if I have to.