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Eminence 2016 "All Value" Team (1 Viewer)

E

Eminence

Footballguy
Starting lineup:

QB - Kirk Cousins (10.02) / Phillip Rivers (8.11)
RB - Ameer Abdullah (6.06) 
RB - Giovanni Bernard (7.02)
WR - Demaryius Thomas (3.08)
WR - Kevin White (8.01)
WR - Willie Snead (10.10) / Travis Benjamin (10.04) / Josh Gordon (10.05)
FLEX - Coby Fleener (7.08) / Kamar Aiken (11.02)
TE - Julius Thomas (9.03)
DEF
K

BENCH

Sammie Coates (13.12)
Josh Ferguson (14.01)

 

1st Round: Demaryius Thomas
2nd Round: Ameer Abdullah
3rd Round: Giovanni Bernard
4th Round: Coby Fleener
5th Round: Kevin White
6th Round: Phillip Rivers
7th Round: Kirk Cousins
8th Round: Julius Thomas
9th Round: Travis Benjamin
10th Round: Josh Gordon
11th Round: Kamar Aiken / Willie Snead
12th Round: Vincent Jackson / DeAndre Washington
13th Round: Sammie Coates / Josh Ferguson
14th Round: Defense
15th Round: Kicker
 

3.08 Demaryius Thomas -

The guy didn't have a Quarterback last year. Mark Sanchez while mediocre can manage a game and put up some stats. He can finish top 10.

6.06 Ameer Abdullah -

From purely a talent standpoint, Ameer Abdullah reminds me of Adrian Peterson when he runs the ball. He needs to learn a little bit more patience because there were times when I watched last year that he would run into his own lineman. That shows me he's just hitting the hole as hard as possible and isn't really reading his blocks. Could be a product of the Lions line, either way I hope he shakes that habit.

Huge bump in PPR, I think he's going to be the guy this year.

7.02 Giovanni Bernard -

7.08 Coby Fleener - 

8.01 Kevin White -

8.11 Phillip Rivers -

The Chargers will not have a running game and their defense is likely not to improve much but I think they will win more games than last year. With that said, 

10.02 Kirk Cousins -

Who's the running back in Washington? Matt Jones. Who? Matt Jones. Who? You get the point. I think Matt Jones is a decent player but he's not somebody who should be seeing the ball 15+ times a game. Washington has a surprisingly stacked WR core with Desean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Crowder (what's his first name), rookie Josh Doctson, and returning receiving yard leader from last year Jordan Reed.

...and he's the 10th player on your team?

9.03 Julius Thomas -

It's amusing to me that everyone seems to ignore the fact that this guy started last season with a broken hand. It also puzzles me that 

10.04 - Travis Benjamin

10.05 - Josh Gordon

10.10 Willie Snead -

What I like about Snead is that he produced with Drew Brees last year and that there are now more targets available in New Orleans. The rookie will get his and Fleener will get some too but if this guy gets even as much as he got last year he is a steal at this position. He has a chance to get more targets this year than last year, imo.

11.02 Kamar Aiken -

You look at what Kamar Aiken produced last year. Tip your hate to Steve Smith but do you really think either of those guys could produce the stats that Aiken was putting up last year? The main reason I have a somewhat respectable amount of confidence for Aiken to put up WR3 or possible WR2 on a good day is because Coach Harbaugh showed me that he is willing to play journeyman players in significant roles. Justin Forsett.

Besides that, who does he have to beat out? An aging Steve Smith recovering from an injury (I still think he's got game left in him) and Mike Wallace who hasn't been relevant in years. Mike Wallace = Lee Evans, good luck figuring out when he's going to go off. "Oh, Cleveland drafted a fast cornerback and Wallace couldn't get open".

11.10 Vincent Jackson -

Vincent Jackson is another Wide Receiver I am surprised is going this low. Mike Evans is the guy, sure, but Tampa Bay's defense is probably going to be terrible again this year. They will be playing from behind and Vincent Jackson will benefit from that. He was averaging 10 points a game in my 0.5PPR league last season. Steady amount of targets for a guy you can grab in the 11th round.

12.06 DeAndre Washington -

13.12 Sammie Coates -

He's a guy that will be the Week 1 waiver wire gem if he goes off for a touchdown. Be smart, be ahead of the crowd, just draft him now. He's in a high-scoring Offense in a role that Martavis Bryant excelled in last year. He's got jets and Pittsburgh is the modern day WR factory. Draft a kicker or defense next round...

14.01 Josh Ferguson -

Another guy that in PPR will probably be in discussion as a waiver wire gem. He fits Ahmad Bradshaw's role in this offense perfectly and I think that's what the buzz is all about. Plenty of draws, screens, checkdowns opportunities with this guy. Frank Gore is going to grind out an Edgerin James from the Cardinals type year.

 
Agree with you on Julius Thomas. He started last year injured on a new team, which hindered his acclimation to the offense. But toward the end of the year he found his groove and began producing.

Now, with a solid year in their system and on an explosive Jags offense, he's going to be a top 3 TE (barring injury). Especially with defenses focusing on the Allens after their big years in 2015.

Bank on it. 

 
Nice list but several of those guys are getting drafted higher than you imagine but good stuff man!

 
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For Julius to be top 3 he's going to need to play 16 games - which would be a first - and see about 115-125 targets, or about 40-48 more than he has averaged over the last 3 years.

14-89

12-62

12-80

So if we presume 100% health, and take his last 7 games production - the offense averaged 29.7 PPG weeks 11-16 - then we're looking an extrapolated line of 107-71-768-9. The top 5 (aggregate stats not PPG) averaged 123.2-81.8-1072.6-8.8. Given his historical production and assuming unprecedented availability, he can come close to being just outside that group in targets, receptions and TDs. But I'm not sure there's a case to made he'll make a 50% jump in targets or 40% leap in yardage. 15% improvement in catches and TDs, and assuming health, he seems primed for a TE6 - TE8 type season.

But last year the depth of productive TEs was exceptional. Barnage, Olsen, Reed and Walker all had career years in the same season. If (as is likely based on the last 5-10 years) only 1-2 repeats that kind of season, then Thomas could crack the top 3 if he puts up another 12 TD or better season. But TDs are variable, so I'm sure I'd call that scenario a lock.

Last year Jax was pretty horrible in the RZ running the ball, and they threw the ball inside the 5 more than just about anyone. With Ivory in the mix I'm not sure you'll see as many fades and jump balls that would lead to Julius having an elite season. Love their offense overall, though, there is a lot to contend with for any defense.

 
Eminence said:
1st Round: Demaryius Thomas
2nd Round: Ameer Abdullah
3rd Round: Giovanni Bernard
4th Round: Coby Fleener
5th Round: Kevin White
6th Round: Phillip Rivers
7th Round: Kirk Cousins
8th Round: Julius Thomas
9th Round: Travis Benjamin
10th Round: Josh Gordon
11th Round: Kamar Aiken / Willie Snead
12th Round: Vincent Jackson / DeAndre Washington
13th Round: Sammie Coates / Josh Ferguson
14th Round: Defense
15th Round: Kicker
Click to expand...
Maybe I'm misinterpreting this part of your post, but aren't you throwing all your "value" away by drafting this way?

 
Eminence said:
3.08 Demaryius Thomas -

The guy didn't have a Quarterback last year. Mark Sanchez while mediocre can manage a game and put up some stats. He can finish top 10.
Click to expand...
Lots of stuff I agree with here, but given Sanchez's history and Andre Johnson's history in Houston with Kubiak, I just don't see a top 10 ppg season possible. He is still a nice value. 

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Dthomas first round?? Or 3.08?? Im confused

Ameer abdullah as ur rb1 is pretty terrible
Click to expand...
See this is why you're not on Eminence's level, bro. This is next gen stuff here.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Dthomas first round?? Or 3.08?? Im confused

Ameer abdullah as ur rb1 is pretty terrible
Click to expand...
My guess is he is saying that's where he thinks they should be drafted in terms of how valuable they will be this year...idk

 
Good to see Em is back at FF for the start reason.  I like most of the list. Love the QB combo. Rivers is always on my value list. Not sure about those RBs though. 

You have been too quiet Em. Hope life is good. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Very odd comparison imo.
Click to expand...
From purely a talent standpoint, Lee Child reminds Em of William Faulkner.

From purely a talent standpoint, Ricky Rubio reminds Em of Steph Curry. 

From purely a talent standpoint, Al Green reminds Em of Michael Jackson. 

 
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As for my ribbing of Em...all in good fun. I usually find his FF takes to be the inverse of his political takes. His FF takes are reasonable and enjoyable. I still owe him for turning me onto one of the great can't miss draft super values of Kelvin Benjamin. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Maybe I'm misinterpreting this part of your post, but aren't you throwing all your "value" away by drafting this way?
Click to expand...
It was more or less to show that it is possible to get most / all of these guys on your team. You would never draft D. Thomas in the first but if you went:

1st - Julio Jones

2nd - Doug Martin

3rd - Demaryius Thomas

That's a great start.

 
DocHolliday said:
Good to see Em is back at FF for the start reason.  I like most of the list. Love the QB combo. Rivers is always on my value list. Not sure about those RBs though. 

You have been too quiet Em. Hope life is good. 
Click to expand...
Those RB are guys that will put up numbers week after week. Maybe a little bias towards PPR but I think both those guys will see increased carries from last year and are steals where they currently are.

You have to remember how badly RB position gets beat down. Guys were starting Tim Hightower in their fantasy championships last year.

Bernard has been rock solid year after year and Abdullah is poised to make a huge step forward.

 
Ilov80s said:
As for my ribbing of Em...all in good fun. I usually find his FF takes to be the inverse of his political takes. His FF takes are reasonable and enjoyable. I still owe him for turning me onto one of the great can't miss draft super values of Kelvin Benjamin. 
Click to expand...
There was a huge vacuum of targets and a highly drafted Rookie who I thought may have chemistry with Cam.

Worked out nicely for us, although a lot of his production came in garbage time. He's being taken too high this year for my liking.

 
Eminence said:
There was a huge vacuum of targets and a highly drafted Rookie who I thought may have chemistry with Cam.

Worked out nicely for us, although a lot of his production came in garbage time. He's being taken too high this year for my liking.
Click to expand...
Agree 100

 
Eminence said:
It was more or less to show that it is possible to get most / all of these guys on your team. You would never draft D. Thomas in the first but if you went:

1st - Julio Jones

2nd - Doug Martin

3rd - Demaryius Thomas

That's a great start.
Click to expand...
Why would you draft Martin in the 2nd when you can get him in the 4th?

 
I'm in on Abdullah. I think Travis Benjamin will have a nice season with a real qb and wr1 to take the pressure off. Everyone in the fantasy community is down on DT but the guy has been qb proof since coming into the league. Gio could see a lot of targets with their "revamped" wr core and eifert on the shelf. 

 
Willie snead is a weird pick for this list.  I think last year was him playing at the top of his range.  I don't see him as an emerging talent so much as a warm body who was catching passes from brees, same as watson.  Now that they have better targets i don't see him improving on last year at all and probably taking a big step back.

 
Quez said:
You gave up on Kelvin Benjamin?
Click to expand...
At his current draft position, pass for me. I was so bullish on him before because of the void in targets and the fact he could be had in the 11th.

However, if you look at his production a lot of it came in garbage time, he's coming off a torn ACL, and he's going 3.07 in the same range as TY Hilton, Demaryius Thomas, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Jarvis Landry, Julian Edelman, and a Golden Tate?

His situation is almost the exact opposite of his rookie season.

 
http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/the-panthers-kelvin-benjamin-and-garbage-time-production-082515

King Kelvin

As is evident, Kelvin Benjamin stands atop the NFL in his production.  In garbage time (trailing by 11+ points in the 4th quarter), Benjamin saw:

- 56% (5) of his total touchdowns (9), largest % in the NFL

- 29% of his total fantasy points (std scoring), largest % in NFL

- 18% of his total catches, 2nd largest % in the NFL

- 19% of his total yardage, 4th largest % in the NFL

 
Part of what made Benjamin's performance so effective in garbage time was obviously the coverage.  Whether partially due to Cam Newton or partially due to Benjamin himself, his catch percentage when the defense was likely playing "prevent defense" was significantly better than during the first 3 quarters of play.  As the chart demonstrates, Benjamin's 45% catch rate during the first 3 quarters was the worst rate in the NFL.

http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/the-panthers-kelvin-benjamin-and-garbage-time-production-082515

 
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