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Official Bruce Ellington - WR, 49ers (Dynasty Alert) (1 Viewer)

ShamrockPride

Footballguy
Surprised there's no thread for this dude yet. Lot of hype around him going into this year. 3rd year guy, 24, 5'9", 200. Disappointing first two years (just 19 total catches) with recurring hammy issues, but apparently Chip LOVES the guy. Sounds like his x-factor guy he'll use out wide, in the slot, out the backfield. Beat writer yesterday wrote it sounds like he has a legit chance to win the #2 job and lead the team in receptions.

An excerpt from this article today: http://www.ninersnation.com/2016/7/28/12263350/49ers-roster-breakdowns-90-in-90-wr-bruce-ellington 

Bruce Ellington is an explosive athlete. His pSPARQ score, a composite metric that measures athleticism, puts him in the 91st percentile of NFL wide receivers. His score put him just above Brandin Cooks, a wide receiver that put up over 1,100 yards in a pass-happy offense. In 2015, Ellington’s athleticism helped him succeed against all manner of coverage, even if that success didn’t turn into receptions.

Matt Harmon put together a fantastic write up on Ellington’s 2015 season in his Reception Perception series. In it Harmon notes Ellington successfully beat man, zone, and press coverage at an above NFL-average rate. His 81.3-percent success rate on curl routes is matched Antonio Brown. The success rates Ellington experienced in 2015 indicate route running proficiency that will carry over into 2016.

 
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Surprised there's no thread for this dude yet. Lot of hype around him going into this year. 3rd year guy, 24, 5'9", 200. Disappointing first two years (just 19 total catches) with recurring hammy issues, but apparently Chip LOVES the guy. Sounds like his x-factor guy he'll use out wide, in the slot, out the backfield. Beat writer yesterday wrote it sounds like he has a legit chance to win the #2 job and lead the team in receptions.

An excerpt from this article today: http://www.ninersnation.com/2016/7/28/12263350/49ers-roster-breakdowns-90-in-90-wr-bruce-ellington 
I'm not sure why there would be any hype around a guy that is going to be on a bottom five offence, will have limited targets and tds....sure if you want to hype a potential wr3 then so be it but there will be 20 wrs that will perform as well as him sitting on the waiver wire this year.

 
Naive post, sir. Up until this point Ellington has been basically free. He's in a Chip Kelly offense that doesn't have much for play makers and could turn out to be a very nice wr3 with wr2 upside. I sure hope others in my leagues approach Ellington like you do.

 
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I mean, I guess I'm talking from a dynasty perspective, so my fault in regard to that. As a dynasty guy, I do like him a lot.

 
The larger the league, the more interesting Ellington is.  Also, the deeper the benches.  

Whoever SF's #2 target is will have a shot at fantasy relevance during bye week season at least.  The team doesnt have dependable receiving threats at rb or te, so room for Ellington to grab the JMatthews role, with Smith in DJax's?

 
The Sacramento Bee's Matt Barrows believes Bruce Ellington is in "excellent position" to be the 49ers' "breakout player" on offense.
 
As noted by Barrows, coach Chip Kelly has been talking up Ellington ever since Kelly took over in San Francisco. Small, but quick, Ellington has the ability to line up in the backfield and play the slot. He could be that piece Kelly loves to move around and get the ball into his hands. With just 19 career catches through two seasons, it's not out of the question that Ellington leads the team in catches this season with Torrey Smith operating as the big-play threat on the outside. 
Jul 27 - 3:36 PM

Source: Sacramento Bee


The San Jose Mercury News' Cam Inman believes 49ers WR Bruce Ellington will win the starting job opposite Torrey Smith.


Blaine Gabbert talked up Ellington this offseason, saying he "balled out" and "caught a ton of balls" during OTAs. It sounds like Ellington could easily beat out disappointing fourth-year WR Quinton Patton, who could lose the No. 3 job to CFL import Eric Rogers. On a team which could be forced to throw early and often, Ellington is an interesting late-round target. 
Jul 26 - 12:21 PM

Source: San Jose Mercury News 

 
The number two job there could end up being the number one target IMO. Smith is, and always has been, a one trick pony.

 
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The number two job there could end up being the number one target IMO. Smith is, and always has been, a one trick pony.
Maybe, but it's a hell of a trick. Smith could really out perform his adp (WR41). 

- High volume offense, bad defense and terrible win total projection which should mean much of that high volume is passing

- WR2/3/TE1/RB1 have a combined 63 career NFL receptions.

- Smith is a 27 year old WR with some of the best athletic measurements of any NFL WR (4.43, 95th % SPARQ-x)

- NFL production that includes  a season with 1,128 yards and a season with 11 TDs. 

 
I'm not saying Smith is worthless, just that he's not a true #1 -- he's a pretty limited deep threat.  Never had more than 65 receptions.  Career average of 17.3 ypc and a TD every 7 receptions.  And the Ravens let him walk.

 
I'm not saying Smith is worthless, just that he's not a true #1 -- he's a pretty limited deep threat.  Never had more than 65 receptions.  Career average of 17.3 ypc and a TD every 7 receptions.  And the Ravens let him walk.
Yeah, I don't think he is a complete WR at all. Still, the DeSean Jackson type of WR can still be a type of #1 and be a productive fantasy player. Last year AR15 and Sammy Watkins averaged 17 yards per catch. A player can average that and still be considered a #1 WR on their team. 

 
Naive post, sir. Up until this point Ellington has been basically free. He's in a Chip Kelly offense that doesn't have much for play makers and could turn out to be a very nice wr3 with wr2 upside. I sure hope others in my leagues approach Ellington like you do.
Can you stick to the player's virtues without name calling or over used cliches (I hope people in my league...)?

No one is "free" as there is always opportunity cost.  Our rosters are somewhat limited and I think I can find better options.  As far as Chip Kelly goes, I think he gets way too much respect given his NFL track record.

The article looks like a July fluff piece: "In 2015, Ellington’s athleticism helped him succeed against all manner of coverage, even if that success didn’t turn into receptions."   Now success for a WR is defined as getting open?  The anti-PPR guys will love that!  I can hear the guy coming back to the huddle: "I was open, man.  Why didn't you throw it to me?"  All kidding aside, if you're consistently wide open and the QB can't get you the ball, there is a problem somewhere.

So, Ellington is under-sized; has 19 catches in two years; has recurring hammy issues and plays for a below average offense?  Take a flyer if you like.  Sleepers are sleepers for a reason -  but I do think WR2 upside is overly optimistic.

 
i liked ellington a lot but there are concerns.

1) he's in a bad offense.

2) limited role as the slot?

3) he's small like Smith

he can be productive in the role, i suppose, but i think critical to determining his value - near and long term - is who's the other emerging WR might be. Rogers, Patton, Smelter are all lurking there. Rogers, in particular, is getting a lot of buzz.

 
Naive post, sir. Up until this point Ellington has been basically free. He's in a Chip Kelly offense that doesn't have much for play makers and could turn out to be a very nice wr3 with wr2 upside. I sure hope others in my leagues approach Ellington like you do.
Well he went undrafted in my 3 leagues this year so you can feel good about that

 
Can you stick to the player's virtues without name calling or over used cliches (I hope people in my league...)?

No one is "free" as there is always opportunity cost.  Our rosters are somewhat limited and I think I can find better options.  As far as Chip Kelly goes, I think he gets way too much respect given his NFL track record.

The article looks like a July fluff piece: "In 2015, Ellington’s athleticism helped him succeed against all manner of coverage, even if that success didn’t turn into receptions."   Now success for a WR is defined as getting open?  The anti-PPR guys will love that!  I can hear the guy coming back to the huddle: "I was open, man.  Why didn't you throw it to me?"  All kidding aside, if you're consistently wide open and the QB can't get you the ball, there is a problem somewhere.

So, Ellington is under-sized; has 19 catches in two years; has recurring hammy issues and plays for a below average offense?  Take a flyer if you like.  Sleepers are sleepers for a reason -  but I do think WR2 upside is overly optimistic.
This is a great post.  I keep seeing the comments about well it's a 'chip kelly' offense....all that means to me is they are going to be terrible.  This isn't college ball anymore and his game didn't translate to the nfl.  In desperation he has now taken the reigns of a team that is easily bottom 3 in actual talent on the roster.  There is very little to like in the 49ers this year.

 
This pretty much sums it up. No more, no less.
To me that is homer talk.  Being 'athletic' in the nfl means nothing.  You either get the game or you don't and Ellington has shown nothing so far and chances are he doesn't really get the game.  

That's not to say everything doesn't click this year for him or any number of wr's in the league but there is no evidence for him that it will.  

 
How do we know that? It's a whole new offensive system and Gabbert looked good last season and Kaep has had success in the past.
Are you honestly asking that question?  The 49ers are easily bottom 3 in the league in terms of talent.  Everyone sees that.  Kelly has been a failure in the nfl.  Kaep never throws to his wr's and Gabbert has been around long enough to evaluate Gabbert.

 
To me that is homer talk.  Being 'athletic' in the nfl means nothing.  You either get the game or you don't and Ellington has shown nothing so far and chances are he doesn't really get the game.  

That's not to say everything doesn't click this year for him or any number of wr's in the league but there is no evidence for him that it will.  
I didn't read it. 

 
Are you honestly asking that question?  The 49ers are easily bottom 3 in the league in terms of talent.  Everyone sees that.  Kelly has been a failure in the nfl.  Kaep never throws to his wr's and Gabbert has been around long enough to evaluate Gabbert.
Things change quickly in the NFL - and Kelly's offense was far from a failure (even his last season in Philly). Their defense was atrocious and Murray was a poor fit but the passing game was at least average even with an underachiever like Bradford under center. Kaep and Gabbert are both far more mobile and fit Kelly's offense better.

Gabbert played well last season and I'm not sure he's been "around long enough to evaluate" seeing as we hadn't seen him much of him before last season. He was overmatched as a young QB, but guys learn and progress. Nick Foles was a stud in the Kelly offense and Gabbert has that potential - he's a much better athlete than Foles.

I don't think Ellington is worth more than a real late round flier (even if that) but guy's come out of nowhere all the time. Kelly's offenses have produced some big numbers for the top WR on the team. If that's Ellington he could turn out to be useful. 

 
Things change quickly in the NFL - and Kelly's offense was far from a failure (even his last season in Philly). Their defense was atrocious and Murray was a poor fit but the passing game was at least average even with an underachiever like Bradford under center. Kaep and Gabbert are both far more mobile and fit Kelly's offense better.

Gabbert played well last season and I'm not sure he's been "around long enough to evaluate" seeing as we hadn't seen him much of him before last season. He was overmatched as a young QB, but guys learn and progress. Nick Foles was a stud in the Kelly offense and Gabbert has that potential - he's a much better athlete than Foles.

I don't think Ellington is worth more than a real late round flier (even if that) but guy's come out of nowhere all the time. Kelly's offenses have produced some big numbers for the top WR on the team. If that's Ellington he could turn out to be useful. 
Gabbert threw 10dts and 7 ints in playing half the season.  So he was on pace for 20tds and 14ints...I don't consider that playing well.  

I'm just not excited about a coach who developed an average offence coming to a team with no talent, a qb that throws 1td a game (and has a history of being terrible and taking lots of sacks with an online that is also inadequate).  Last year Kelly did not produce a 1000 yard wr and the year before produced 1 (Jeremy Maclin who is a proven really good wr).

He is certainly nothing more than a flyer but you could look at the wr 3/4 on any team and say the exact same thing about them.  

 
Gabbert threw 10dts and 7 ints in playing half the season.  So he was on pace for 20tds and 14ints...I don't consider that playing well.  

I'm just not excited about a coach who developed an average offence coming to a team with no talent, a qb that throws 1td a game (and has a history of being terrible and taking lots of sacks with an online that is also inadequate).  Last year Kelly did not produce a 1000 yard wr and the year before produced 1 (Jeremy Maclin who is a proven really good wr).

He is certainly nothing more than a flyer but you could look at the wr 3/4 on any team and say the exact same thing about them.  
Gabbert was also on pace for 4,062 passing yards and 360 rushing yards and 2 TDs - and that was with an incompetent coaching staff.

While it's true there were no 1,000 yard WRs last season in Kelly's offense, Matthews had 85-997-8 despite dropping a lot of balls.

In 2014 Maclin had 85-1318-10 and in 2013 Jackson had 82-1332-9 (and yes, Maclin and Jackson were more established and likely more talented than Ellington).

 
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Not going to try and upack everything here, but it's worth looking at:

Age Vol Effc HT" WT# BMI SPD EXP AGL ATHL BAL1 BAL2 Draft
Bruce Ellington    23.03     89    8.81    69.13    197    28.98    0.60    0.49    1.48    1.42    0.79    0.25    106
Odell Beckham     21.82   102    3.54    70.75    198    27.81    0.53    0.50    1.52    1.40    0.81    0.20    12
Doug Baldwin       22.94     62    4.63    69.75    189    27.31    0.75    0.33    0.78    1.05    0.44    0.36    UDFA


Ellington is shorter and thicker than both of these guys, but based on other comps I don't have any reason today to believe that it disqualifies the comparison despite not having much data to work with.  Golden Tate for example looks like you'd expect him to look if his comps were with players who were somewhat longer and leaner, but similar in terms of overall size.

And all three were relatively low-volume high-efficiency players in college as well.

Based on being a top-12 draft pick and entering the NFL a year younger than both other guys you'd expect Beckham to be the best prospect of the three and obviously that's turned out to be true.  But Baldwin was an UDFA who's emerged as a borderline NFL #1 despite the low volume and the poor draft status.

What's striking about the comps above is how similar Ellington is to Beckham across all six measurables on the right.  I doubt I could find any two WR that matched up more similarly.

So if the coach says he's intrigued by Ellington, there's pre-camp buzz about the guy and early camp observers think he's a potential breakout candidate, I think it's worth paying a lot of attention and taking a flier.

 
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Gabbert threw 10dts and 7 ints in playing half the season.  So he was on pace for 20tds and 14ints...I don't consider that playing well.  

I'm just not excited about a coach who developed an average offence coming to a team with no talent, a qb that throws 1td a game (and has a history of being terrible and taking lots of sacks with an online that is also inadequate).  Last year Kelly did not produce a 1000 yard wr and the year before produced 1 (Jeremy Maclin who is a proven really good wr).

He is certainly nothing more than a flyer but you could look at the wr 3/4 on any team and say the exact same thing about them.  
Sorry to jump in, but I'm kind of coming around on Gabbert myself so I think it is worth pointing out that SF was a mess last year. Chip turned Foles into a fantasy relevant QB and given what Gabbert was able to do last year, I think it is entirely possible Chip is able to squeeze some value out of Gabbert, too. There's no reason Gabbert can't turn his career around after a rocky start (similar to Alex Smith).

So let's not write off SF as an offense just yet. I think Gabbert's athleticism could work well with this system and Torrey is a good fit here, also.

ETA: Last year was obviously not good for Chip, but he did support two top 24 WRs in his previous two years. So five top 24 WRs in three years isn't so bad.

 
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So let's not write off SF as an offense just yet. I think Gabbert's athleticism could work well with this system and Torrey is a good fit here, also.
Also agree with this.  Gabbert's being under-drafted in redraft right now IMO.  Think he belongs in the same (MFL ADP) tier with Flacco, Alex Smith and Cutler.

 
Also agree with this.  Gabbert's being under-drafted in redraft right now IMO.  Think he belongs in the same (MFL ADP) tier with Flacco, Alex Smith and Cutler.
all 4 of those guys went undrafted in my leagues (all 10 teamers)

 
Things change quickly in the NFL - and Kelly's offense was far from a failure (even his last season in Philly). Their defense was atrocious and Murray was a poor fit but the passing game was at least average even with an underachiever like Bradford under center. Kaep and Gabbert are both far more mobile and fit Kelly's offense better.

Gabbert played well last season and I'm not sure he's been "around long enough to evaluate" seeing as we hadn't seen him much of him before last season. He was overmatched as a young QB, but guys learn and progress. Nick Foles was a stud in the Kelly offense and Gabbert has that potential - he's a much better athlete than Foles.

I don't think Ellington is worth more than a real late round flier (even if that) but guy's come out of nowhere all the time. Kelly's offenses have produced some big numbers for the top WR on the team. If that's Ellington he could turn out to be useful. 
Yes, things can change quickly in the NFL.  SF could exceed expectations.  However, the division is loaded with tough defenses.  Lots of question marks with the QB, offensive line and pecking order of the WRs.  Certainly an opportunity for somebody to emerge at WR.  I've seen comments putting Ellington into a "gadget role" and that doesn't thrill me - I want consistency, not gimmicks.

I actually think Kelly's offensive scheme can put pressure on his own defense, especially if the offense can't sustain drives.

Agree, that he could be a late round flyer.  We should have more insight in another month.

 
I'm on board for a couple different reasons.  

I don't like the offense.  I don't like the talent.  I don't like the QB.  I don't trust him to hit any WR further than 12 yards away.  I don't view the TE or the RB to be a major source of passing targets.  I don't trust the coaches.  

This sounds a lot like the Dolphins to me over the last two seasons or so.  If I am looking to find the Jarvis Landry, this kid is the one.  

The other WRs are a deep threat, and some guys whose scrapbook might only contain Shark Pool quotes.  Smelter and the CFL kid, I'm not dismissing either one, but both are lotter tickets.  And again, Smelter could turn into a solid WR, but can Gabbert get it to him?

In a PPR setting, he's a fine candidate for last WR spot.  

 
Can you stick to the player's virtues without name calling or over used cliches (I hope people in my league...)?

No one is "free" as there is always opportunity cost.  Our rosters are somewhat limited and I think I can find better options.  As far as Chip Kelly goes, I think he gets way too much respect given his NFL track record.

The article looks like a July fluff piece: "In 2015, Ellington’s athleticism helped him succeed against all manner of coverage, even if that success didn’t turn into receptions."   Now success for a WR is defined as getting open?  The anti-PPR guys will love that!  I can hear the guy coming back to the huddle: "I was open, man.  Why didn't you throw it to me?"  All kidding aside, if you're consistently wide open and the QB can't get you the ball, there is a problem somewhere.

So, Ellington is under-sized; has 19 catches in two years; has recurring hammy issues and plays for a below average offense?  Take a flyer if you like.  Sleepers are sleepers for a reason -  but I do think WR2 upside is overly optimistic.
Are you always this thin skinned when someone doesn't agree with you? Yes, I hope people in my leagues share your opinion. 

I don't know what format your talking about. I'm coming from a dynasty perspective. In dynasty benches are generally deep and as your fan boy killaface just said he went undrafted in his leagues(free). Chip Kelly may not be a great real life coach, but I could care less about real life abilities when we're talking fantasy. Chip offenses runs a high volume of plays and that volume equals fantasy points.

If Ellington wins the wr2 job, and stays healthy, I'd bet he'll be closer to 70 catches then 19. And yes, wr2 is very optimistic considering he "has 19 catches in two years".  

Edit- I also want to add that Waldman and Harmon like Ellington's skill set and think he can be an effective player at this level. I don't put all my stock in their opinions, but I respect their opinions enough to PAY ATTENTION. 

 
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Maybe thick headed, but not thin skinned.  Just take exception to calling people naive when their opinion differs from yours.
We'll agree to disagree. I certainly didn't mean to insult you or your opinion. I do think you should give Ellington a little more respect than your giving him. 

Back to Ellington!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 
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Well he went undrafted in my 3 leagues this year so you can feel good about that
I'm loving that!

And to be clear, I'm coming from a dynasty perspective. I'm guessing those drafts are redraft leagues, right? In redraft he's definitely a nice late round flier depending on your roster size. 

 
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I'm loving that!

And to be clear, I'm coming from a dynasty perspective. I'm guessing those drafts are redraft leagues, right? In redraft he's definitely a nice late round flier depending on your roster size. 
Dynasty actually....again I think you are stretching to draft a guy that has 19 catches in two years and hasn't looked good even doing that.  The 49ers are an organization in disarray, who play in an extremely tough division (I would guess that Kaep and Gabbert are both not going to last the season given the oline).  I suspect Kelly is going to be there 2 years and gone and it will be an entirely new system.

I have edited to add that lots of sites are talking up Smelter and some are even saying that Smith is badly undervalued (all went undrafted in my leagues).  The point is that people seem to randomly like to take nobodies and elevate them to 'sleeper' status based on nothing but their own opinion.  

 
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Dynasty actually....again I think you are stretching to draft a guy that has 19 catches in two years and hasn't looked good even doing that.  The 49ers are an organization in disarray, who play in an extremely tough division (I would guess that Kaep and Gabbert are both not going to last the season given the oline).  I suspect Kelly is going to be there 2 years and gone and it will be an entirely new system.
For the record the o-line, as far as in the passing game, isn't as bad as most people think. The run blocking is so atrocious it kind of just gets muddled in there. But PFF has SF pass blocking ranked at 14th coming into this season. Run blocking is ranked 30th.

 
For the record the o-line, as far as in the passing game, isn't as bad as most people think. The run blocking is so atrocious it kind of just gets muddled in there. But PFF has SF pass blocking ranked at 14th coming into this season. Run blocking is ranked 30th.
They gave up pretty much the most sacks in the league last year and I can't see why they think they would be improved especially given the defenses in the division

PFF doesn't really have anything good to say about them and they are preseason rankings...which is code for just a guess

 
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He's bigger than Steve Smith, TY Hilton, Brandin Cooks and Desean Jackson.  Size isn't his problem.
I'm looking at Smith's contract and he's not going anywhere anytime soon. I don't think teams like to trot out a WR1/2 that are smaller, speed guys. Yes, Smith did it with Desean but, to me, it seems like he's stuck in the slot position while one of the other bigger WRs steps into role opposite Smith. Again, that doesn't mean Ellington can't be productive but I'm seeing his limitations here.

 
Bruce Ellington is listed as a starting receiver on the 49ers' initial depth chart.

Ellington, Torrey Smith, and Quinton Patton are the first-teamers, with DeAndre Smelter, Jerome Simpson, and DeAndrew White listed with the twos. This doesn't come as a surprise; it's merely confirmation that Ellington has a firm grip on a top-three spot in San Francisco. By all accounts, Ellington has been one of the 49ers' best offensive players dating back to the spring.

Source: 49ers.com

 
49ers.com's Joe Fann said WR Bruce Ellington was the team's "top offensive standout" during their joint practices with the Texans.
Fann said Ellington was a "catch machine throughout practice." The 2014 fourth-rounder has earned nothing but praise for his performance this offseason, and it is clear he will open the season as the No. 2 receiver for an offense which will likely be forced to throw. He is a great value in the 14th round.

 
 
Source: 49ers.com 
Aug 13 - 9:01 AM

 

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