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ESPN Lists HOF Chances For Current Players (1 Viewer)

Anarchy99

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Full article here: Projecting Future NFL HOFers

100%: Aaron Rodgers, JJ Watt, Tom Brady, Drew Brees
99%: Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson
98%: DeMarcus Ware
95%: Larry Fitzgerald, Jason Witten, Darrelle Revis, Earl Thomas
90%: Ben Roethlisberger, Richard Sherman
85%: Luke Kuechly, Russell Wilson
80%: AJ Green, Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Antonio Brown
75%: Von Miller, Adam Vinatieri, Ndamukong Suh, Rob Gronkowski, Andre Johnson
70%: Patrick Peterson, Antonio Gates
65%: Cam Newton
60%: Steve Smith Sr.
55%: Andrew Luck
50%: Odell Beckham Jr., Jason Peters
40%: Dwight Freeney, Anquan Boldin, Eli Manning, Trent Williams
35%: Julio Jones, Tyron Smith, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Berry, Maurkice Pouncey, Philip Rivers
30%: Terrell Suggs, Geno Atkins, Aaron Donald, Nick Mangold, Gerald McCoy
25%: Dez Bryant, Justin Houston, Khalil Mack, James Harrison, Josh Norman
20%: Chandler Jones, Kyle Long, Robert Quinn
15%: Marcel Dareus
Under 10%: Calais Campbell, Tyrann Mathieu, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan, Desmond Trufant, Joe Flacco, Elvis Dumervil, Marshal Yanda, Andy Dalton, Andrew Whitworth, Eric Weddle, LeSean McCoy, Greg Olsen, Ryan Kalil, Alshon Jeffery, Joe Haden, Tony Romo, Zack Martin, Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr., Ezekiel Ansah, Haloti Ngata, Matt Stafford, Jordy Nelson, Josh Sitton, Vince Wilfork, Duane Brown, TY Hilton, Vontae Davis, Robert Mathis, Allen Robinson, Dontari Poe, Mike Pouncy, Cameron Wake, Mario Williams, Harrison Smith, Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower, Stephen Gostkowski, Devin McCourty, Brandon Marshall, Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Fletcher Cox, Le'Veon Bell, David DeCastro, Keenan Allen, Jimmy Graham, Bobby Wagner, Michael Bennett, Joe Staley, Jameis Winston, Lavonte David, DeMarco Murray

 
I would have thought Peppers was more of a lock. 

ETA: Gates as well. I think they also switched up Newton and Russell Wilson. 

 
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Ndamukong Suh at 75% stands out to me as a little overvalued.  Especially when I look at the names below his as I see a lot more talent than this guy. 

 
Godsbrother said:
Beat Brady in the Super Bowl twice means he gets in and I think he should.
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Bull ####.  He's a mediocre QB on a mediocre team.  Even including the SBs, his career is FAR from HOF-worthy, but the effing East Coast Media will vote him in (see also: Namath).

 
Brandon Marshall has a way better than 10% chance of getting in.

 
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TripItUp said:
Agreed on both counts, Rivers would need a late career super bowl run which isn't looking very likely.
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Surprised he never left San Diego. Seems like he would have been a very likely person to look for a team that could make a playoff run like the Jets, Vikings, Texans, etc.

 
As much as I like him, Fitz really sticks out as way too high to me. Pretty much their only criteria for arguing he should be in was that he has been to 9 pro bowls, but everyone knows Pro Bowls aren't what they used to be (at least 3 of those he should not have gotten in that year.) WR numbers are blowing up, there will be a logjam of great WR's that are going to be coming up for entry as well. It's not his fault he was stuck with no QB for a big chunk of prime years but his career totals are really lacking compared to a lot of the greats. He also doesn't have a lot of individual season honors. Despite a lot of great years, he led the NFL in receptions once and only has 1 first team All-Pro, that's about it on the resume.

The same paragraph for Fitz mentioned Andre Johnson as a shoe-in, I think he has a much better case than Fitz and even he may have a hard time getting in.

 
Surprised at the gap between Green and Julio. They are weighing the risk of Julio's foot way more than the fantasy community is.

 
Way too many WRs on this list. There are 22 positions + specialists in the game.  Everyone has WR fever, puke.

 
abbottjamesr said:
Gronk has more TD's than any TE currently in the Hall of Fame and a Superbowl ring. 
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That's cool.  He's severely lacking in Rec. and Yds.  If his career ended today, he'd also only that distinction until Gonzalez/Gates got in.....at which point Gronk would be viewed as  the Terrell Davis of TE's*

* For you youngsters.......Terrell Davis a.k.a T.D. was a RB for the Denver Broncos in the late 1990s who looked to be one of the greatest, if not greatest RBs of all time before his career was derailed by injuries. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Yes, Gronk seemed low. I guess injuries could derail him, but that chance seems remote.
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"Rob Gronkowski probably isn't going to have a long career, thanks to his style of play and the back problems which ailed him in college at Arizona. But he has been so productive on a per-game basis that it doesn't really matter. He's seventh in league history among tight ends with 65 scores in 80 games. Gronk's also an incredible blocker, although that part of his game never gets attention. As a historic force of nature and an outsized personality, Gronk's chances of making the Hall of Fame are already very high." 75 percent

In cases where the original article is using injury concerns to derail a potential HoF career....it'd be interesting to see how much more that player would have to produce to be considered a lock.  

 
I get that the HOF should be supper selective and not let in every tom **** and harry, but it kind of sucks that it generally rewards those who had long careers and were on winning teams and not necessarily the uber talented that only had 5-6 year careers and played on crappy teams.

I'm 37 yo and if some said list the top 5 greats of each position of the last 20-25 years that you have been watching football, my guess is less than half are in or ever will be in the Hall of fame.  

I feel like Randy Moss was one of the best WR's to ever play the game, but will probably never be considered as HOF worthy. 

Also how is Witten more likely to get into the HOF than Gronk?

 
thriftyrocker said:
Surprised at the gap between Green and Julio. They are weighing the risk of Julio's foot way more than the fantasy community is.
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I'm shocked Green/Brown are in the same tier as Matthews and Peppers.  Matthews has a Super Bowl and DPOY while Peppers has played at an elite level for an absurd 15 years. 

The lifespan of elite defenders is so much shorter than WRs.  The equivalent for Peppers longevity in WR-terms is Jerry Rice (without the rings).

No WR with less than 10 years playing history and no rings should even be above 10% for hall of fame eligibility. Whoever wrote this list needs to gain an appreciation for the rest of the positions. 

 
Buckna said:
As much as I like him, Fitz really sticks out as way too high to me. Pretty much their only criteria for arguing he should be in was that he has been to 9 pro bowls, but everyone knows Pro Bowls aren't what they used to be (at least 3 of those he should not have gotten in that year.) WR numbers are blowing up, there will be a logjam of great WR's that are going to be coming up for entry as well. It's not his fault he was stuck with no QB for a big chunk of prime years but his career totals are really lacking compared to a lot of the greats. He also doesn't have a lot of individual season honors. Despite a lot of great years, he led the NFL in receptions once and only has 1 first team All-Pro, that's about it on the resume.

The same paragraph for Fitz mentioned Andre Johnson as a shoe-in, I think he has a much better case than Fitz and even he may have a hard time getting in.
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Fitz was listed at 95% and Boldin at 40%. Yet their career totals are pretty similar:

Oddly enough, both have played in 186 regular season games. Fitz has accounted for 13,429 yards from scrimmage vs. 13,424 for Boldin.

Their receiving totals are 108-13366-98 for Fitz and 1009-13195-79 for Boldin. Obviously Fitz has more TDs, but for some reason the perception is that he was light years better than Boldin. Granted, he is two years younger and might play a little longer, but for now they are a lot closer than people tend to think.

 
Until Morten Anderson gets in, the rest of the kickers will have a long wait IMO.

Even if he never played another game, I think JJ Watt would still get in. Which is pretty amazing considering he's only 27.

 
Andre Johnson is in. It's not usual the Titans make national news and everyone talks of them. The last couple weeks, the number of big time reporters that showered praise upon his career- he is absolutely in. Those are probably the voters. 

I've never seen a back so quickly disrespected like Chris Johnson. He had the best 3 or 4 year start (rushing yards) in NFL history and he just vanished completely off lists like this. The Jets didn't use him well and he didn't play well in NY, one single year. If he could stay upright a couple more games he would have definitely had a 1000 last year and he exited as top 5 overall in rushing.

I get it. There's David Johnson love and people have CJ getting the scraps so it appears his career is winding down. There's absolutely logic NOW, but he's been off these lists for years and that ain't right. 

Jamal Lewis was a compiler and he got included in these polls. 

2k yards, AP first team, AP offensive player of the year, started with six 1000 yard rushing seasons. I feel bad for the guy. I'd bet $ you can't name a back that started his career with six 1000 yard seasons OR got 2k and people act like he stinks. 

Now I think CJ is going to be good for the HOF. This is going to work out nicely for us that like to debate these things. Wherever he finishes up, he is going to be the perfect barometer for us to discount others-nope, not getting in. We do need a guy like that. I think Bledsoe retired and gave us that for QBs.

 
abbottjamesr said:
I get that the HOF should be supper selective and not let in every tom **** and harry, but it kind of sucks that it generally rewards those who had long careers and were on winning teams and not necessarily the uber talented that only had 5-6 year careers and played on crappy teams.

I'm 37 yo and if some said list the top 5 greats of each position of the last 20-25 years that you have been watching football, my guess is less than half are in or ever will be in the Hall of fame.  

I feel like Randy Moss was one of the best WR's to ever play the game, but will probably never be considered as HOF worthy. 

Also how is Witten more likely to get into the HOF than Gronk?
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Moss will undoubtedly get in.  I think there's more than a few people who think he's the GOAT at the WR position.  TO is the one who I think is being held out by the Fraternity for not being very "Fraternal Like".* 

Witten's got 650+ more receptions and 5000+ more yards than Gronk.  I don't think anyone's saying Gronk's not going to get in the HoF.  I'm just saying I don't think he gets in the HoF if his career ends this season. 

*TO will eventually get in. 

 
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The list in itself-

Too many CBs. I'm not sure who you cut out, but I don't think it's normal to have a run of CBs.

I see an age issue. The older guys that have done more are down on this list, yet the younger guys that have done less are above them. 

 
Witten and Romo had their first training camp together in 2003.  I would hope he could double Gronks yards in 3 times as many years.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Fitz was listed at 95% and Boldin at 40%. Yet their career totals are pretty similar:

Oddly enough, both have played in 186 regular season games. Fitz has accounted for 13,429 yards from scrimmage vs. 13,424 for Boldin.

Their receiving totals are 108-13366-98 for Fitz and 1009-13195-79 for Boldin. Obviously Fitz has more TDs, but for some reason the perception is that he was light years better than Boldin. Granted, he is two years younger and might play a little longer, but for now they are a lot closer than people tend to think.
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Yep, Steve Smith is right there with them both as well and he's at 60%. Brandon Marshall isn't far behind and still putting up big numbers but he's at 10%. Had Calvin not retired early, he'd be in the mix as well.

 
tangfoot said:
Bull ####.  He's a mediocre QB on a mediocre team.  Even including the SBs, his career is FAR from HOF-worthy, but the effing East Coast Media will vote him in (see also: Namath).
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I hear ya but show me the list of starting QBs with multiple SB victories that did not make the HoF.  There is only one:  Jim Plunkett.

 
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abbottjamesr said:
Witten and Romo had their first training camp together in 2003.  I would hope he could double Gronks yards in 3 times as many years.
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That's cool....but if his season ended today......434-5555-65TDs isn't getting him in.  He'd be Bo Jackson or Terrell Davis; atheletes whose careers were tragically cut short but who didn't do quite enough to be in the Hall of Fame. 

 
Thunderlips said:
That's cool....but if his season ended today......434-5555-65TDs isn't getting him in.  He'd be Bo Jackson or Terrell Davis; atheletes whose careers were tragically cut short but who didn't do quite enough to be in the Hall of Fame. 
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Bo Jackson would be a good comp.  

 
Bri said:
Andre Johnson is in. It's not usual the Titans make national news and everyone talks of them. The last couple weeks, the number of big time reporters that showered praise upon his career- he is absolutely in. Those are probably the voters. 

I've never seen a back so quickly disrespected like Chris Johnson. He had the best 3 or 4 year start (rushing yards) in NFL history and he just vanished completely off lists like this. The Jets didn't use him well and he didn't play well in NY, one single year. If he could stay upright a couple more games he would have definitely had a 1000 last year and he exited as top 5 overall in rushing.

I get it. There's David Johnson love and people have CJ getting the scraps so it appears his career is winding down. There's absolutely logic NOW, but he's been off these lists for years and that ain't right. 

Jamal Lewis was a compiler and he got included in these polls. 

2k yards, AP first team, AP offensive player of the year, started with six 1000 yard rushing seasons. I feel bad for the guy. I'd bet $ you can't name a back that started his career with six 1000 yard seasons OR got 2k and people act like he stinks. 

Now I think CJ is going to be good for the HOF. This is going to work out nicely for us that like to debate these things. Wherever he finishes up, he is going to be the perfect barometer for us to discount others-nope, not getting in. We do need a guy like that. I think Bledsoe retired and gave us that for QBs.
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Through 6 seasons, here are the Top 20 in rushing yards:

1 Eric Dickerson 9915
2 LaDainian Tomlinson 9176
3 Emmitt Smith 8956
4 Adrian Peterson 8858
5 Barry Sanders 8672
6 Walter Payton 8386
7 Earl Campbell 8296
8 Chris Johnson 7965
9 Shaun Alexander 7817
10 Eddie George 7813
11 Curtis Martin 7754
12 Edgerrin James 7720
13 Clinton Portis 7715
14 Thurman Thomas 7631
15 Corey Dillon 7520
16 Jerome Bettis 7372
17 Ottis Anderson 7364
18 Tony Dorsett 7015
19 Terrell Davis 6906
20 Maurice Jones-Drew 6854

The guys above him are HOFers. The more recent players beneath him are borderline or questionable.

 
abbottjamesr said:
Gronk has more TD's than any TE currently in the Hall of Fame and a Superbowl ring. 
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He passed Witten in TDs at age 26.

In 6 seasons, in which he missed a season worth of games, he's 380 rec/5555 yards/65 TDs - Gonzo was 1.3k rec/15k yards/111 TDs, Gates is at 844 rec/10.5k yards/104 TDs.

To put this in perspective, Gronk has played 80 regular season games. Gates has played 190, Gonzo played 270.

 
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Anarchy99 said:
Through 6 seasons, here are the Top 20 in rushing yards:

1 Eric Dickerson 9915
2 LaDainian Tomlinson 9176
3 Emmitt Smith 8956
4 Adrian Peterson 8858
5 Barry Sanders 8672
6 Walter Payton 8386
7 Earl Campbell 8296
8 Chris Johnson 7965
9 Shaun Alexander 7817
10 Eddie George 7813
11 Curtis Martin 7754
12 Edgerrin James 7720
13 Clinton Portis 7715
14 Thurman Thomas 7631
15 Corey Dillon 7520
16 Jerome Bettis 7372
17 Ottis Anderson 7364
18 Tony Dorsett 7015
19 Terrell Davis 6906
20 Maurice Jones-Drew 6854

The guys above him are HOFers. The more recent players beneath him are borderline or questionable.




 
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I didn't know Shaun didn't make it til this post. I had just assumed he did. So I saw this and thought "yeah look, in the middle of hall of famers."

It's interesting. He's in great company here, but six years isn't enough.

Terrell Davis was so dominant. He only played one more year than this. CJ being 1000 yards more than him offers a nice sentiment. 

Looking at PFR, he seems a bit higher than Priest (discounting the zero to start)

1500 more than LJ.

LJ and Priest, for me, are like TD in their dominance yet short career. Going back to my barometer comment, CJ would work well here as the barometer. It's not perfect, they destroy him in TDs, but...

 
Phenomena said:
I'm shocked Green/Brown are in the same tier as Matthews and Peppers.  Matthews has a Super Bowl and DPOY while Peppers has played at an elite level for an absurd 15 years. 

The lifespan of elite defenders is so much shorter than WRs.  The equivalent for Peppers longevity in WR-terms is Jerry Rice (without the rings).

No WR with less than 10 years playing history and no rings should even be above 10% for hall of fame eligibility. Whoever wrote this list needs to gain an appreciation for the rest of the positions. 
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I agree it is tough for WR to get in, but getting easier. 

I think Peppers should be a lock based on the fact he was viewed as elite (top 2?) at DE for a few years and stayed very good for an abnormally long period of time.

I don't know if I view Matthews as elite. I know he had one great year. I think Suggs and Harrison had higher highs but were less consistent. Certainly he benefits from being on a marquee franchise and staying healthy.

 
Ilov80s said:
It will be interesting to see how the NFL HoF handles the statistical discrepancy in eras. There have been huge shifts in RB,WR, TE and QB numbers.  
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You use as a baseline the least impressive HOF of the era and then judge players of the era on that.  To that, Gonzo, Gates and Witten are probably the only HOFers of their era. Gonzalez is head and shoulders above those other two.....so I'd average out Witten and Gates' stats as the minimum requirements to get in from the 2000-2010 era. 

 I consider Gronk and Graham the next era (increase in offensive output/better athletes gravitating to the TE position/OC's utilizing them more in the passing game)...with Gronk being head and shoulders over everyone else......and really, noone else even starting to build a case.  I guess for a period (3 best non-consecutive years), Graham was right up there with Gronk.....but I think many think Graham's best days are behind him, where most feel Gronk should be elite for a few more years (barring injuries). 

 
Gronk at only 75% is insanity. 

So is Richard Sherman at 90%.  He doesn't have enough dominance or longevity to be more than 50/50 right now. 

 
Thunderlips said:
You use as a baseline the least impressive HOF of the era and then judge players of the era on that.  To that, Gonzo, Gates and Witten are probably the only HOFers of their era. Gonzalez is head and shoulders above those other two.....so I'd average out Witten and Gates' stats as the minimum requirements to get in from the 2000-2010 era. 

 I consider Gronk and Graham the next era (increase in offensive output/better athletes gravitating to the TE position/OC's utilizing them more in the passing game)...with Gronk being head and shoulders over everyone else......and really, noone else even starting to build a case.  I guess for a period (3 best non-consecutive years), Graham was right up there with Gronk.....but I think many think Graham's best days are behind him, where most feel Gronk should be elite for a few more years (barring injuries). 
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That sounds like a Catch 22 though. 

 
Johnny Bing said:
Ndamukong Suh at 75% stands out to me as a little overvalued.  Especially when I look at the names below his as I see a lot more talent than this guy. 
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Agreed.  I know it's early but I feel a lot more confident in mack than suh. 

 
If a guy like Gronk would get in some sort of accident and never play again, and not get in the hall of fame, then the hall of fame is doing it wrong.  

It is sad that "decent" longevity seems to get the nod over several years of complete dominance in a lot of cases.  

 
ghostguy123 said:
If a guy like Gronk would get in some sort of accident and never play again, and not get in the hall of fame, then the hall of fame is doing it wrong.  

It is sad that "decent" longevity seems to get the nod over several years of complete dominance in a lot of cases.  
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Do we feel the same way about Jimmy Graham? 

 
Ghost Rider said:
Gronk at only 75% is insanity. 

So is Richard Sherman at 90%.  He doesn't have enough dominance or longevity to be more than 50/50 right now. 
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Agreed on Gronk, but I think you're wrong about Sherman.

2011 All rookie team
2012 1st team all pro
2013 1st team all pro
2014 1st team all pro
2015 2nd team all pro

Looks dominate to me, and that's on top being a key factor in a defense that just went four consecutive years giving up the fewest points in the NFL. HOF voters place a particular importance on team success means he's got an even better shot. Given the team success, sort of surprised to see Bobby Wagner and Michael Bennett so low on this list. 

 
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