1.13 - Travis Kelce, TE, KC - #4 TE drafted. Finished as TE #6 last season. Entering third year, expect continued improvement. Playoff points are likely.
2.4 - Coby Fleener, TE, NO - #5 TE drafted. 34 year old journeyman Watson finished as TE #7 in this offense last year, and Graham finished in the top 3 TEs in each of the previous 4 seasons in this offense. Fleener isn't Graham, but he is quite a bit better than Watson. In retrospect, TEs didn't go off the board as fast as I expected, so I might have been better off going with 1 TE and 1 WR in the first 2 rounds.
3.13 - Jeremy Maclin, WR, KC - #23 WR drafted. Finished as WR #14 last season despite missing one game. Also was a bit better in the second half of the season than the first, perhaps a sign of improved chemistry with Smith, since it was his first season in KC. Playoff points are likely.
4.4 - Julian Edelman, WR, NE - #27 WR drafted. Finished as WR #29 last season despite missing 7 games; finished #8 in ppg. In 2014, he finished as WR #10 despite missing 2 games. Very high playoff point potential. Great value here, albeit with some injury risk.
5.13 - Dwayne Allen, TE, IND - #16 TE drafted. The last season Luck was healthy, 2014, Allen finished as TE #19... while teammate Fleener finished as TE #7... their combined total points were higher than Gronk's. I'm not expecting that out of Allen, but he should easily outperform this draft position if he and Luck stay healthy. Playoff points are likely.
6.4 - Marvin Jones, WR, DET - #40 WR drafted. Going to a new team, his past performance isn't terribly relevant, but finished as WR #39 last season, despite playing with Green and Eifert in an offense that was #26 in passing attempts. Now he goes to a team that was #4 in passing attempts, and he is rumored to be replacing Calvin as Detroit's #1 WR. Jones had 103 targets last season; he will probably see 130+ targets this season if he stays healthy, and should easily outperform his draft position.
7.13 - Bengals, TMQB, CIN - #15 TMQB drafted. Finished as TMQB #9 last season, and was TMQB #5 through 12 games, before Dalton got hurt. Dalton was having his best season before he got hurt. Hue Jackson has been replaced by Zampese as OC, which could mean more emphasis on passing. Playoff points are likely. Great value here.
8.4 - Arian Foster, RB, MIA - #30 RB drafted. Has been a top 5 RB since 2010 when healthy, but obviously is a high injury risk, having missed 23 games over the past 3 seasons. Indications are that Miami prefers a primary RB over RBBC, and Foster is that guy, as long as he stays healthy. My picks so far in the draft were generally safe picks... the upside was worth the risk here. Last team to draft a RB, which was my plan entering the draft.
9.13 - Deangelo Williams, RB, PIT - #37 RB drafted. Finished as RB #5 last season, showing he has high upside potential. With Bell expected to miss 3 games due to suspension plus the potential for playoff points, he should finish in the top 30 RBs and outperform this draft position. And if Bell misses more time for whatever reason, he could be the SOD.
10.4 - Isaiah Crowell, RB, CLE - #40 RB drafted. Finished as RB #30 last season, and now gets Hue Jackson, who is known to be good for RBs.
11.13 - Chris Boswell, PK, PIT - #3 PK drafted. Finished as the #7 PK last season, but Scobee was the PIT PK for the first 4 games. Combining their points, the Steelers PK was the #3 PK last season. The PIT offense should be prolific, and playoff points are likely. Also sensed a PK run coming and wanted to get my first PK drafted to avoid getting stuck with a PK camp battle and risk of a zero at the position. A run did indeed happen, as 18 of the next 36 picks were PKs.
12.4 - Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN - #64 WR drafted. Last season, Marvin Jones finished as the #39 WR last season and Sanu finished as the #77 WR, despite the fact that CIN finished #26 in pass attempts and Dalton was only healthy for 12 of 17 games. This year, there is reason to believe pass attempts will increase (Zampese), and Jones and Sanu have been replaced by LaFell and Boyd. Boyd is dominating training camp, and he could easily surpass LaFell in the passing game this year and outperform this draft pick.
13.13 - Mike Nugent, PK, CIN - #18 PK drafted. Finished as the #13 PK last season. More importantly, his job is safe, he plays on a team with a strong offense, and playoff points are likely.
14.4 - Texans, TMQB, HOU - #25 TMQB drafted. Finished as TMQB #18, despite the fact that their opening day starter was bad enough they released him in midseason and the team started 4 different unimpressive QBs. Now they have a theoretical upgrade in Osweiler, and they have improved their targets in the passing game. Playoff points are possible, though Luck being (presumably) healthy this year probably makes it a long shot.
15.13 - Redskins, DEF, WAS - #17 DEF drafted. Finished as the #14 DEF last season. They were better in the second half last season, and have added an elite CB in Norman. Should be at least a slight value here. The Skins made the playoffs last season, so playoff points are possible.
16..4 - Jermaine Kearse, WR, SEA - #75 WR drafted. Finished as the #36 WR last season, and he was re-signed to a 3 year contract in the offseason. His role will be reduced, with Lockett set to move into the starting lineup and Paul Richardson potentially healthy this season for the first time. But there is a big range between #36 and #75, so it seems likely he will be good value here. Multiple playoff games are likely, which helps.
17.13 - Chargers, DEF, SD - #27 DEF drafted. Finished as the #30 DEF last season, but finished as #21 in 2014. Assuming Bosa signs, the talent and depth should be improved. Not much to lose at this point in the draft, so went with a
pick.
18.4 - Mike Tolbert, RB, CAR - #65 RB drafted. Finished as the #56 RB last season, so there is some potential for good value here. Of course, the Panthers making the Super Bowl helped there. Playoff points are likely again, though perhaps not as many extra games. Hoping for 70 points here.
Summary:
TMQB - Bengals, Texans
RB - Foster, Deangelo, Crowell, Tolbert
WR - Maclin, Edelman, Marvin Jones, Boyd, Kearse
TE - Kelce, Fleener, Allen
PK - Boswell, Nugent
DEF - Redskins, Chargers
I'm pretty happy with this team. As usual, injuries (to these players and other players) will dictate a lot.