Previous years' writeups:
2015,
2014,
2013,
2012,
2011 a &
b,
2010.
My general approach: have projections, make a VBD-style adjustment, follow the numbers except for close calls or breaking news, adjust position values slightly during the draft. I like drafting near the middle because I have more opportunity to grab falling value when my picks are spread out, although it meant that I missed out on this year's big 4 (who went 1-2-4-6).
1.11 QB Packers (Rodgers) GB
I never take a QB early in this format, but this year my numbers said otherwise. Turns out I made a mistake in my numbers and the corrected numbers say that I should've taken Jordan Reed. Oops. At least Rodgers wasn't that far back. Also considered: QB Russell Wilson, TE Jordan Reed.
2.06 RB Lamar Miller HOU
Just missed out on Jordy Nelson, who was the end of a tier (and a convenient stack). This was a close call between a lot of players. I'm not wild about Miller, but pretty much everyone who I trust has him as a first rounder in standard formats. Also considered: TE Coby Fleener, WR Keenan Allen, WR TY Hilton, TE Delanie Walker, RB Jamaal Charles.
3.11 WR Randall Cobb GB
He wasn't quite at the top of my draft board, but I'll give up a few points to double up on the Packers' passing offense. Also considered: WR Julian Edelman, RB Devonta Freeman, WR Brandin Cooks, RB Mark Ingram, WR Jarvis Landry.
4.06 WR Julian Edelman NE
Huge PPR upside if he can play 16+ games. I'll bet on his health rather than on a lesser player's production. Also considered: none.
5.11 WR Eric Decker NYJ
Surprised to see him fall this far (WR30) after what he's done the past few years, including with Fitzpatrick. Gates, Witten, and Decker were the end of a tier. Also considered: none.
6.06 RB Frank Gore IND
Workhorse RB on a good offense, with a chance to score a bunch of touchdowns. This pick was a close call, but uncertainty about injuries kept me away from Ebron & Graham (though their upside is tantalizing, especially Ebron's), positional balance edged me away from John Brown, and the likelihood that I could wait on Tyrod Taylor kept me away from Bortles. Also considered TE Eric Ebron, TE Jimmy Graham, QB Blake Bortles, WR John Brown, RB Ryan Mathews.
7.11 TE Jimmy Graham SEA
The (smallish) dropoff from Gore to Duke Johnson as best RB available, plus the fact that my roster is now less thin at RB, means that it's now worth going for the boom or bust TE. If he can make it onto the field, even a hobbled Graham seems likely to reach 40+ receptions, which makes his downside pretty palatable in the 7th round. And he has plenty of upside - he could come through for me big like last year's mid-round boom or bust TE Jordan Reed. Also considered: TE Zach Miller, RB Duke Johnson, QB Tyrod Taylor.
8.06 RB Rashad Jennings NYG
The Giants' lead RB, and he has been solid when given a chance. His production last year was worth this draft slot, and he has some upside given the larger workload that he got over the last few games and the buzz about there being less of a committee this year. Tyrod Taylor was a bit higher on my draft board, but I'm going to gamble on Taylor lasting another round (or other good QB value being available, possibly Dalton or Mariota as fallbacks). Also considered: QB Tyrod Taylor.
9.11 QB Titans (Mariota) TEN
Settled for Mariota after Taylor didn't fall. Tennessee was QB19 last year, and this year Mariota has another year of experience and is expected to run more. Some downside risk, though, from their potentially RB-heavy thunder & thunder gameplan plus the possibility that he's just not that good. Also considered: TE Charles Clay.
10.06 DEF Broncos DEN
Thanks in part to points for yards allowed, the Denver D is good enough to reach the top of my draft board here. Also considered: PK Stephen Gostkowski, RB LeGarrette Blount.
11.11 WR Mohamed Sanu ATL
Tough choice here after none of the top kickers fell, with a bunch of similarly rated players near the top. I decided to skip PK & Def since there are a bunch of both near the top of my rankings. Went with Sanu over RB Riddick because I think he has a higher ceiling, and both have pretty decent floors. Riddick seems unlikely to carve out a bigger role than last year (and doesn't get points for receptions), while Sanu could end up with a bunch of targets on an offense desperate for someone besides Julio to throw to (last year, their #2 in receiving yards was Jacob Tamme). Also considered: RB Theo Riddick, DEF Patriots, PK Josh Brown.
12.06 PK Josh Brown NYG
Kickers are going relatively quickly in this league, and there are a lot of job security questions among the bottom third of kickers this year. Brown is a solid kicker on a good offense with reasonable playoff chances. Terrible timing, as Brown's suspension was announced a few hours after this pick. Also considered: PK Adam Vinatieri, DEF Bengals, RB Christine Michael.
13.11 PK Robbie Gould CHI
Seems worth locking down the PK position with a surefire starter. Also considered: WR Terrance Williams, TE Jacob Tamme, DEF Giants, DEF Rams.
14.06 WR Kenny Britt LA
The most likely candidate to be the Rams' top WR (unless
Austin has suddenly learned how to run routes past the line of scrimmage). Britt has had surprisingly good per target stats over the years despite being seen as a disappointment and playing with lousy quarterbacks. He has some shot at upside if Goff turns out to be good. The Giants were actually at the top of my draft board, but there are several defenses close behind them so I'm just going to wait on the position until that tier thins out. Also considered: TE Jacob Tamme, DEF Giants, DEF Rams.
15.11 TE Jacob Tamme ATL
Boring old guy, likely to remain the Falcons' top receiving TE. He doesn't need to repeat last year's stats to be worth this slot. Also considered: DEF Giants, WR Robert Woods.
16.06 FLEX WR Tajae Sharpe TEN
Lucky to have him fall into my lap here. I went to sleep with Karlos Williams predrafted and Robert Woods as my top ranked flex, but fortunately Vector was slow enough for me to see Williams get cut and Sharpe have another nice game with the 1's. Sharpe is the kind of rookie receiver that I love in the second half of the Anarchy draft - a likely starter on a team without a clear #1 WR. Also considered: RB Chris Thompson, RB Javorius Allen, WR Robert Woods.
17.11 DEF Lions DET
Down to defense or RB, and there should only be 1 RB going off the board before my last pick. Also considered: DEF Bucs, DEF Cowboys, RB Chris Thompson.
18.06 RB Chris Thompson WAS
He seems pretty well locked into the role as his team's receiving back, which is more than I can say for any of the other RBs left. And there's a chance that that role could grow, given the question marks about the rest of Washington's RB corps and the trends around the league (with Riddick, Woodhead, etc.). Also considered: RB Javorius Allen.
Positives: Generally got guys who were good values and have high floors (barring injury), and many of my guys have significant upside (including playoff potential). Especially lucky to land Tajae Sharpe when I did, and also happy with Edelman, Decker, R Jennings, Tamme, and C Thompson. I think the last third of the draft played out pretty well for me.
Negatives: Not thrilled about my first 3 picks (Rodgers, Miller, Cobb). Given how QBs (like Cutler) & defenses fell, I would've been better off waiting instead of taking Mariota & Denver in rounds 9 & 10. Could be kicker trouble if Josh Brown's conduct costs him more than 1 game. A fair amount of injury risk.
The projections which I used to draft unsurprisingly like my team most, but less so than in previous years. After my team, they like BassNBrew, ffgiant, jhexel, and Crippler, with a pretty large pack in striking distance.
