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Trip's Top 5 Undervalued 2016 (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

TripItUp

Footballguy
enjoy...

1.  Brandon Marshall - ADP = 2.04  WR #8 - In 2015 Marshall had 1502 yards and 14 TDs and for the PPR crowd he had 109 receptions.  That's good for a better PPG than both Hopkins and AJ Green, yet Dez Bryant, Hopkins and Green are all going in the first round and Marshall is going several picks later in the 2nd.  This isn't the first time Marshall has produced either.  Last season was the 6th time Marshall produced over 1200 yards and the 4th time he produced double digit TDs.   I see no good reason why Marshall will regress while the other three WRs I just mentioned come with their fare share of baggage.  Marshall is a steal in the 2nd round and as good as bet as any to produce elite WR numbers.

2.  Golden Tate - ADP = 4.08 WR #22 - Tate was a beast when megatron was out last year, and now he is the top target for an entire year.  Don't make this hobby more difficult than it needs to be...top 10 numbers are within reach for Tate.

3.  Tom Brady - ADP = 6.09 QB#7 - QB is deep this year, you can get a very serviceable QB for the first 4 weeks.  No way should Brady be QB#7 off the board because of the suspension, he was #3 in ppg last year and has a legit shot at being #1 this year.  Tommy is going to win a lot of fantasy championships this year...write it down.

4.  Eli Manning - ADP = 8.04 QB#10 - As I alluded to in my overvalued post, Eli is a steal this year at 8.04. Under McAdoo Eli has emerged as a solid fantasy starter, last year Eli had just 2 less PPG than the #2 QB.  If you wait on QB this year, Eli is the play at QB.

5.  Zach Ertz - ADP = 10.09 TE#12 - Zach came on super strong last year and netted a lucrative contract as a result.  Additionally, he is now in a new offense that features the TE.  90 receptions may sound crazy to you, but it is well within the realm of possibility.  Ertz is a steal at his current ADP and could end up as the #2 TE this year...not bad for a late 10th rounder. 

**ADP is from draft calculator, 12 team standard scoring

 
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I pretty much agree with all of these, especially Ertz. I have no idea why he's going so late.

 
Thanks for posting these Trip, they are fun to read and thought provoking.  Couple comments:

1. Marshall - Couldn't agree more.  If I am drafting on the turn he is one of my targets. I have him as the #5 WR on my board.

2. Tate - I'm not buying that in non-ppr he is going to be that good.  He only averaged 7.6 points per game last season.  I know they lost Megatron but the additions of Jones and Boldin are troubling to me.  I think Boldin steals a lot of his receptions across the middle.

3. Brady - I don't disagree on the analysis, just how much earlier to you feel he should go?  I can't draft a QB thats going to miss 4 games any earlier.

4. Manning - I don't disagree on the analysis, but again are you going to reach for him in the 9th?

5.  Ertz - Love it.

And to not just pick nits, I will add one to the list.

Ryan Fitzpatrick - ADP 14.4 QB22 - Finished QB8 last year in points per game.  Marshall and Decker are still there.  Their two main RB's are both great pass catchers.  I don't understand why the world is down on all the Jets players.  Maybe its the green uniforms.  I'll draft a RB or WR in the middle rounds and grab my QB right before my K and D/ST.

 
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Love reading these posts, Trip. Even if we don't always agree on every single guy, it's nice to get a difference perspective.

1. Marshall - I like Marshall, but I think he's a nice grab in the 2nd round. Not sure his ADP is off at all. He had a career year last season and is now going on 32 with a 34 y/o Fitzpatrick coming off one of his best seasons. It's going to be tough to duplicate what they did last season. And then you throw in Forte who can certainly take some looks away in the passing game. Marshall will be a solid WR this season, but I'm not sure he's WR1 material.

2. Tate - I'm all over the map on this guy. I do think he could have a good season and push for WR1 numbers, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle against better CBs. I could see making a case for him in the late 3rd/early 4th, but I don't think I'd feel comfortable taking him much earlier than that, especially in a non-PPR.

3. Brady - Agree with the poster above me, I'm not sure how much earlier Brady should go. He's going to miss 4 games with suspension and then has a Week 9 bye. You're without him for 38% of the fantasy season (using 13 weeks). I would almost have a hard time pulling the trigger on him at his current 6.09 ADP. When he plays this season, I expect good numbers, but it's hard to justify a high price tag on a guy that's going to be on your bench for 5 out of the 13 weeks in the fantasy regular season.

4. Manning - Agree with you 100% on this one. Think he has a really good year and he's been my QB target in just about every mock I do.

5. Ertz - Also agree with you on him. He showed what he is capable of last season. It's not like the Eagles are loaded with receiving options, so he should be a nice safety valve for Bradford or Wentz. Of the TEs being drafted around him, he's one I could see finishing inside the Top 5.

 
1. Agree completely on Marshall. He should be in the Hopkins/AJ/Dez tier, but most seem to have him a step or 2 below. The only knock on Marshall is he is older. However, he's only 32. There have been 15 NFL WRs that have put up age 32 seasons good enough to make them WR1s for 2016 fantasy. I can't discount Marshall on age when he is coming off the best season of his career. 

5. I have no idea how you get Ertz as TE2 when he has never been as efficient or talented as Kelce and the best Kelce could do in that offense was TE8. Kelce averaged more 1 yard per target than Ertz last year. Ertz has a career TD per target % of 3.5 compared to Kelce's 5.3%. I Kelce has averaged 5.9 targets per game in KC. Ertz has averaged 6.5. I just don't see where Ertz can end up being much more than TE8-12. 

 
It all depends on what you're looking for out of your high mid-round picks.

I look down your Top 5 and what I see is guys with some of the highest floors in their ADP range. They're generally experienced guys with a history of solid production, in situations that all but guarantee more of the same in '16. Barring injury, none of these guys are gonna outright bust. If you're in a deep league where you'll need to reach a lot later on - or if your philosophy is "just get into the playoffs and anything can happen" - I like all of these picks at or near their ADP.

But what I don't see here are folks with breakout, "win your league" ceilings. Brady's got overall QB1 potential, of course, but you have to get into your playoffs first to win them, which not having your starting QB for the first 4/13ths of the season doesn't help with. Marshall and Manning are on the downslope of their careers. And the Lions believe in Tate the target hog so much that they went out and signed up every FA WR that wasn't bolted down. Only Ertz comes close to fitting that bill - both his ceiling and his floor are higher than TE12 would merit.

This is the core of a 4th-place team IMO. Not bad by any stretch, but you'd better be willing to spend most of your remaining picks throwing darts and hoping you hit a couple of bulls-eyes to take down a title with them.

 
Just curious for those mentioning that you lose a week of scoring from a player on his bye week. Are there players that don't have bye weeks that I'm missing?

 
Good post.

Except it's "alluded" to, not "eluded" to.

Allude is to suggest. Elude is to escape.

I'm just here to help, people. 

 
abbottjamesr said:
  I don't understand why the world is down on all the Jets players.  Maybe its the green uniforms.
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I think most (probably correctly) see last season as a career year for a journeyman level QB and don't think it's sustainable. As a Jets fan, I will say I'm in that pack somewhat especially with the team facing a much tougher schedule. With that said Marshall still has a pretty high floor and an obviously high ceiling. The guy has caught 100 balls nearly every season for a reason. Fitzpatrick is more likely to regress, but his floor is likely still relatively high given his familiarity and success in this system and the weapons he's working with (but he doesn't have much upside) - I wouldn't want to count on him week in and week out, but he's a consideration for streamers or QBBC types.

ETA: Also Fitzpatrick's ADP is likely to rise a bit - it was probably affected by him not being signed and/o signing so late in these early drafts.

 
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Anarchy99 said:
Just curious for those mentioning that you lose a week of scoring from a player on his bye week. Are there players that don't have bye weeks that I'm missing?
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Obviously what you're saying is true, but I think the point is that most players are only expected to miss that one bye week and therefore be available to you 12/13 weeks rather than the 8/13 weeks that a player suspended for the first 4 weeks will be. So yes, the bye itself, isn't really an issue but get compounded by the suspension.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Just curious for those mentioning that you lose a week of scoring from a player on his bye week. Are there players that don't have bye weeks that I'm missing?
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No, but I was just saying that Brady is unavailable to your team for 38% of the time. The average fantasy players in unavailable 8% (12/13).

 
MattFancy said:
No, but I was just saying that Brady is unavailable to your team for 38% of the time. The average fantasy players in unavailable 8% (12/13).
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You need a good backup with Brady, but as long as he's not suspended for the FF playoffs, he's worth taking as the #7 QB.  I would not take him over Cam, RW, Brees, Rodgers or Luck.  Probably not ahead of Ben.  But after that, sure. So I don't see him as a top 5 underrated player, he's valued about right IMO. 

the biggest problem taking Brady IMO is it forces you to take your backup earlier than you might want to - unless you take Jimmy G.

 
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Thank you for sharing Trip. I always enjoy reading these threads.   Awesome work. Here are just some of my thoughts on your opinions:

Brandon Marshall--I agree that his fantasy (and reality) production is sneaky good.  He produces at that elite level but I think people tend to not trust his age or his qb situation.   While I think there is a very good chance that he outperforms his draft value--I personally don't trust his age and qb concerns enough to draft him much earlier than 2.04.    His draft position seems just about right to me--but I do understand and respect your opinion of why you think he's a major value there. 

Golden Tate-- The leagues that I play are PPR--and he's one of the players that I'd like to own at his current price.  I am in complete agreement

Tom Brady-. I agree completely on this one. Will probably be a top 3-4 fantasy qb on the weeks he does play--and he's going for a solid discount.   Draft him---and then wait until the latter rounds and grab a guy like Stafford, Jameis, Ryan or Cousins to play through Brady's suspension.

Eli Manning-.  I like and understand your Eli selection.   My only thing is this; . If I decide to wait on qb--I probably am looking to wait past the 8th round.  If I wait on qb--I'll probably wait and get a guy like Stafford..etc-- In my opinion--I'd only want to draft a qb in a single digit round (anything rd 9 or before)--I'd want to get a qb that I was very confident will be a top 5 guy.  I'm just not that confident that Eli will be better than Rodgers, Cam, Russell, Brees, Brady (when he plays), or Big Ben.    With that being said--Eli does make sense as a pick based on your parameters of value--he just doesn't really fit into my drafting strategy. 

Ertz--I agree on him--and I actually think that TE is a position where value can be found late.  No arguments here. 

 
Rumors that surfaced today are that Marvin Jones could be the #1 in Detroit...if that's the case I would definitely take Tate off this list and I would add Marvin Jones...Jones is an absolute steal if he's the #1 in Detroit.

 
TripItUp said:
Rumors that surfaced today are that Marvin Jones could be the #1 in Detroit...if that's the case I would definitely take Tate off this list and I would add Marvin Jones...Jones is an absolute steal if he's the #1 in Detroit.
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Agreed. Jones at his current ADP is an absolute steal

 
FUBAR said:
You need a good backup with Brady, but as long as he's not suspended for the FF playoffs, he's worth taking as the #7 QB.  I would not take him over Cam, RW, Brees, Rodgers or Luck.  Probably not ahead of Ben.  But after that, sure. So I don't see him as a top 5 underrated player, he's valued about right IMO. 

the biggest problem taking Brady IMO is it forces you to take your backup earlier than you might want to - unless you take Jimmy G.
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You can get Stafford or Cutler very late and both have favorable early season schedules...

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
It all depends on what you're looking for out of your high mid-round picks.

I look down your Top 5 and what I see is guys with some of the highest floors in their ADP range. They're generally experienced guys with a history of solid production, in situations that all but guarantee more of the same in '16. Barring injury, none of these guys are gonna outright bust. If you're in a deep league where you'll need to reach a lot later on - or if your philosophy is "just get into the playoffs and anything can happen" - I like all of these picks at or near their ADP.

But what I don't see here are folks with breakout, "win your league" ceilings. Brady's got overall QB1 potential, of course, but you have to get into your playoffs first to win them, which not having your starting QB for the first 4/13ths of the season doesn't help with. Marshall and Manning are on the downslope of their careers. And the Lions believe in Tate the target hog so much that they went out and signed up every FA WR that wasn't bolted down. Only Ertz comes close to fitting that bill - both his ceiling and his floor are higher than TE12 would merit.

This is the core of a 4th-place team IMO. Not bad by any stretch, but you'd better be willing to spend most of your remaining picks throwing darts and hoping you hit a couple of bulls-eyes to take down a title with them.
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I'm the type that sprinkles in the high upside/"win your league" guys like David Johnson with high floor/decent ceiling guys...that's what has worked for me in most formats. 

These guys are the "value plays" but I agree that the "win your league guys" is a good conversation, but a different conversation as those guys usually carry a fair amount of risk.

That being said, Ertz and Brady are "win your league" guys IMHO.

 
TripItUp said:
Rumors that surfaced today are that Marvin Jones could be the #1 in Detroit...if that's the case I would definitely take Tate off this list and I would add Marvin Jones...Jones is an absolute steal if he's the #1 in Detroit.
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And strangely I've seen Tate going for >$20 in auctions while Jones has been <$10. I like them both this year, but Jones has always been the value.

Similarly, Decker has been going about $10 cheaper than Marshall. While I agree Marshall is a value compared to overrated guys like Hopkins, people forget that Decker missed a game last year and played injured for a few games after that. During the second half of the season, the target split was only 78 vs. 87. To me, Decker presents the most value with an ADP of 57 to Marshall's 20.

This guy won't make anyone's top 5 value plays as his job will be to sit on the bench, but I love Gabbert as a $1/last round pick if you need someone to tandem with a top QB. According to the FBG ADP, he's sitting right at QB32. His numbers on a dysfunctional offense last year were surprisingly good given the circumstances. I think his athleticism will mesh well with Kelly.

 
Love your call on Ertz and I'm hoping he remains low-key during the preseason long enough for me to draft him in my redrafts.

 
FF Ninja said:
And strangely I've seen Tate going for >$20 in auctions while Jones has been <$10. I like them both this year, but Jones has always been the value.

Similarly, Decker has been going about $10 cheaper than Marshall. While I agree Marshall is a value compared to overrated guys like Hopkins, people forget that Decker missed a game last year and played injured for a few games after that. During the second half of the season, the target split was only 78 vs. 87. To me, Decker presents the most value with an ADP of 57 to Marshall's 20.

This guy won't make anyone's top 5 value plays as his job will be to sit on the bench, but I love Gabbert as a $1/last round pick if you need someone to tandem with a top QB. According to the FBG ADP, he's sitting right at QB32. His numbers on a dysfunctional offense last year were surprisingly good given the circumstances. I think his athleticism will mesh well with Kelly.
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Regarding Decker, I think he's decent value but he's not a #1 so that limits his ceiling IMHO...I try to stay away from most #2s for that reason.  That being said, I love his value in deep PPRs like the FFPC format.

I like Gabbert's value in start 2 QB leagues.

 
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TripItUp said:
Regarding Decker, I think he's decent value but he's not a #1 so that limits his ceiling IMHO...I try to stay away from most #2s for that reason.  That being said, I love his values, particularly in deep PPRs like the FFPC format...he was in the conversation.

I like Gabbert's value in start 2 QB leagues.
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I don't get caught up in #1 vs. #2. I primarily look at targets. FF is a statistics game so volume wins. I'd rather have a #2 WR with 130 targets (with the added bonus of facing the #2 CB) than a #1 WR with 120 targets.

This brings me to Crabtree as another value. His 2nd half targets dropped to 66 (from 80) and everyone thinks Cooper is going to explode, but I bet Crabtree still gets 120 target this year with plenty of red zone looks (13 targets last year to Cooper's 8). At WR37 right now, he's another great value play.

 
FF Ninja said:
I don't get caught up in #1 vs. #2. I primarily look at targets. FF is a statistics game so volume wins. I'd rather have a #2 WR with 130 targets (with the added bonus of facing the #2 CB) than a #1 WR with 120 targets.

This brings me to Crabtree as another value. His 2nd half targets dropped to 66 (from 80) and everyone thinks Cooper is going to explode, but I bet Crabtree still gets 120 target this year with plenty of red zone looks (13 targets last year to Cooper's 8). At WR37 right now, he's another great value play.
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crabtree is decent value, but like Decker you're looking at a limited ceiling IMHO.

 
TripItUp said:
crabtree is decent value, but like Decker you're looking at a limited ceiling IMHO.
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So do you build your teams around only WR1s? I mean if something were to happen to Cooper or Marshall, Crabtree and Decker's ceiling would certainly increase.

 
TripItUp said:
crabtree is decent value, but like Decker you're looking at a limited ceiling IMHO.
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Like I mentioned, Decker missed a game and played hurt last year and still finished as low-end fantasy WR1, so I'm not sure we share the same idea of limited ceiling when talking about a WR going 57th overall on average (mid-5th round). As WR27, I'd think a top 10 upside is pretty awesome.

Crabtree is going 84th overall. I don't know what kind of upside you expect out of a guy being drafted as a WR4, but I think he's got easy WR2 upside and no worse than a WR3 floor (assuming health, of course). If you're expecting WR1 upside that late, I don't know what to tell you. If you know of someone with that kind of upside in that range, you should've included him in that list. If you don't know anyone that can be had that late with WR1 upside then you might consider that WR2 upside is actually pretty good at that point.

 
TripItUp said:
I'll bet the under on 12 TDs...big time.
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I get that, but you said you ceiling. Decker has scored 12, 5, 11, 13 and 8 TDs over the last 5 years. He is a TD producer. I think only Dez, Marshall and Gronk have more the last 5 seasons. 

 
FF Ninja said:
Like I mentioned, Decker missed a game and played hurt last year and still finished as low-end fantasy WR1, so I'm not sure we share the same idea of limited ceiling when talking about a WR going 57th overall on average (mid-5th round). As WR27, I'd think a top 10 upside is pretty awesome.

Crabtree is going 84th overall. I don't know what kind of upside you expect out of a guy being drafted as a WR4, but I think he's got easy WR2 upside and no worse than a WR3 floor (assuming health, of course). If you're expecting WR1 upside that late, I don't know what to tell you. If you know of someone with that kind of upside in that range, you should've included him in that list. If you don't know anyone that can be had that late with WR1 upside then you might consider that WR2 upside is actually pretty good at that point.
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I don't think we're too different here, I like both decker and crabtree and have drafted both in FFPC formats.

 
Ilov80s said:
I get that, but you said you ceiling. Decker has scored 12, 5, 11, 13 and 8 TDs over the last 5 years. He is a TD producer. I think only Dez, Marshall and Gronk have more the last 5 seasons. 
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Yep, but 12 TDs is still a lot for a #2 WR...I have him projected for 9.

 
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What has Ertz ever done?  This feels a lot like last years Kelce love...great athelete in a marginal situation...upside is cracking top 5 but not top 3....so theres better upside value elsewhere...

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
What has Ertz ever done?  This feels a lot like last years Kelce love...great athelete in a marginal situation...upside is cracking top 5 but not top 3....so theres better upside value elsewhere...
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The argument for Ertz is more based off of how new PHI HC Doug Pederson used TE's in the KC system. As OC in KC, the Chiefs generated 86-1042-6 and 98-1138-9 from their TEs the past two seasons.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
What has Ertz ever done?  This feels a lot like last years Kelce love...great athelete in a marginal situation...upside is cracking top 5 but not top 3....so theres better upside value elsewhere...
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I agree about the Kelce comp. I wasn't feeling it last year solely due to targets. I love Kelce's talent, but a guy needs more than 100 targets to be worth a top 5 TE pick. I'm seeing Ertz listed as TE9 on the FBG composite ADP, which really seems pretty reasonable. If he's somehow in line for 120+ targets then sign me up for the bandwagon, but I really have no clue how the targets will be divvied up in Philly (although the Reid system has never heavily featured a single TE - especially not to a tune of 90 recs). I could see 120 targets happening, but I could also see him merely performing on par with his ADP or even being outdone by someone drafted much later who lands a surprising target load (maybe Dwayne Allen) or a high volume of TDs (maybe Jared Cook or Martellus Bennett).

At TE, I'd rather pay a slight premium for Fleener (target hog) or Eifert (better, proven talent) over Ertz OR take a late round shotgun approach with some of the guys I just mentioned.

 
TripItUp said:
I'm the type that sprinkles in the high upside/"win your league" guys like David Johnson with high floor/decent ceiling guys...that's what has worked for me in most formats. 

These guys are the "value plays" but I agree that the "win your league guys" is a good conversation, but a different conversation as those guys usually carry a fair amount of risk.

That being said, Ertz and Brady are "win your league" guys IMHO.
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Fair enough, and your choices make a lot of sense in that context. Personally I have a bad habit of chasing upside at draft time, so I could probably do worse than to lock up a few of these names and leave the swinging for the fences to the later rounds.

But if that's the case, why is Brady on this list to begin with? I get that his ceiling is up there with the 6 QBs ahead of him, but it doesn't just cost you QB7, it costs you QB7 plus another QB in the 12-18 range, or QB7 plus the risk of starting your season in a 1-3 or 0-4 hole. I think that combined cost is pretty fairly represented by his ADP, and I'd consider a potential 16 games from Palmer (QB8) better "value" than a max of 12 from Brady.

 
I have spelled out Brady's value in multiple places, but here it is again. In his last 32 games played (including a partial game where he played with 2nd and 3rd stringers against BUF to end 2014), Brady has averaged for 16 games:

4665 passing yards, 38 passing TD, 10 INT, 65 rushing yards, and 2.5 rushing TD

That includes the playoffs from the past two seasons. How many other QBs that score 40 TDs are available where you can get Brady. I personally have been taking Jimmy G late as I have faith that he can still put up borderline QB1 numbers with a stacked offense. In the games Brady does play, he should give you Top 3 QB production.

The risk, as people have told me, is that Brady is like 172 years old and will fall of a cliff and turn into Tim Tebow overnight. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
I have spelled out Brady's value in multiple places, but here it is again. In his last 32 games played (including a partial game where he played with 2nd and 3rd stringers against BUF to end 2014), Brady has averaged for 16 games:

4665 passing yards, 38 passing TD, 10 INT, 65 rushing yards, and 2.5 rushing TD

That includes the playoffs from the past two seasons. How many other QBs that score 40 TDs are available where you can get Brady. I personally have been taking Jimmy G late as I have faith that he can still put up borderline QB1 numbers with a stacked offense. In the games Brady does play, he should give you Top 3 QB production.

The risk, as people have told me, is that Brady is like 172 years old and will fall of a cliff and turn into Tim Tebow overnight. 
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Happened to peyton manning and it was an ugly fall

 
Anarchy99 said:
I have spelled out Brady's value in multiple places, but here it is again. In his last 32 games played (including a partial game where he played with 2nd and 3rd stringers against BUF to end 2014), Brady has averaged for 16 games:

4665 passing yards, 38 passing TD, 10 INT, 65 rushing yards, and 2.5 rushing TD

That includes the playoffs from the past two seasons. How many other QBs that score 40 TDs are available where you can get Brady. I personally have been taking Jimmy G late as I have faith that he can still put up borderline QB1 numbers with a stacked offense. In the games Brady does play, he should give you Top 3 QB production.

The risk, as people have told me, is that Brady is like 172 years old and will fall of a cliff and turn into Tim Tebow overnight. 
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I'm not arguing that Brady isn't productive. I'm arguing that I think Brady is being valued correctly in drafts. His suspension is already weighed into his price, IMO. He's going off the board around QB7 in most mocks I've done. Could he our produce those guys when he's playing? Sure. But those other guys aren't starting out missing the first 4 games.

And like Mr Irrelevant said, the other thing with Brady is that he essentially costs 2 QBs. That means you have 1 less spot for an upside RB or WR until his suspension is over.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Happened to peyton manning and it was an ugly fall
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Brady has tried hard to stay in better shape, whether it be conditioning, diet, yoga, etc. I also contend that Brady throws the ball 6-8 yards, not 20+. NE has already adjusted its offense to fit Brady's declining skill set. His deeper throws have been losing accuracy for years, which is why they don't call as many deep routes anymore. I don't know if there is an age where QBs can't throw a bubble screen at the line of scrimmage. With a healthy line (an issue of it's own), Brady gets rid of the ball quicker than anyone else. Given that he has mastered reading defenses, I'm not sure that goes away with age either. Brady is most susceptible to getting injured and taking longer to recover. I'll give people that. IMO, it is more likely Brady can't play due to injury than him playing poorly.

 
Good stuff TripItUp,

I am fully with you on Brandon Marshall and Golden Tate. Eli is annually undervalued IMO.

Can't really see it with Brady... missing weeks 1-4, bye in week 9, and his numbers for the 2nd half of 2015 season were mid-pack (depending on scoring system).

 
TripItUp said:
enjoy...

1.  Brandon Marshall - ADP = 2.04  WR #8 - In 2015 Marshall had 1502 yards and 14 TDs and for the PPR crowd he had 109 receptions.  That's good for a better PPG than both Hopkins and AJ Green, yet Dez Bryant, Hopkins and Green are all going in the first round and Marshall is going several picks later in the 2nd.  This isn't the first time Marshall has produced either.  Last season was the 6th time Marshall produced over 1200 yards and the 4th time he produced double digit TDs.   I see no good reason why Marshall will regress while the other three WRs I just mentioned come with their fare share of baggage.  Marshall is a steal in the 2nd round and as good as bet as any to produce elite WR numbers.

2.  Golden Tate - ADP = 4.08 WR #22 - Tate was a beast when megatron was out last year, and now he is the top target for an entire year.  Don't make this hobby more difficult than it needs to be...top 10 numbers are within reach for Tate.

3.  Tom Brady - ADP = 6.09 QB#7 - QB is deep this year, you can get a very serviceable QB for the first 4 weeks.  No way should Brady be QB#7 off the board because of the suspension, he was #3 in ppg last year and has a legit shot at being #1 this year.  Tommy is going to win a lot of fantasy championships this year...write it down.

4.  Eli Manning - ADP = 8.04 QB#10 - As I alluded to in my overvalued post, Eli is a steal this year at 8.04. Under McAdoo Eli has emerged as a solid fantasy starter, last year Eli had just 2 less PPG than the #2 QB.  If you wait on QB this year, Eli is the play at QB.

5.  Zach Ertz - ADP = 10.09 TE#12 - Zach came on super strong last year and netted a lucrative contract as a result.  Additionally, he is now in a new offense that features the TE.  90 receptions may sound crazy to you, but it is well within the realm of possibility.  Ertz is a steal at his current ADP and could end up as the #2 TE this year...not bad for a late 10th rounder. 

**ADP is from draft calculator, 12 team standard scoring
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I disagree on Marshall.   He had a career year last year and I think his draft price reflects that.  I don't trust Fitzpatrick to duplicate the year that he had.  I suspect the NYJ are going to run the ball a ton with Forte and Powell.  I don't think he's a bad pick at 2.4.....just not undervalued.

Totally disagree on Tate.  I don't see the upside.  He has a nice floor.... he will catch a lot of passes, but remember that the new regime was using Tate for very short passing.....his YPC was only around 9 yards.  Now that's proabably an outlier, but I am not going to risk a 3rd or 4th rounder on a guy that could be averaging 10 or so YPC.  DET spent a lot of money on Marvin Jones, and the brought in Boldin.  I am also not a huge fan of Stafford.....I always thought Calvin Johnson made Stafford......the same way Randy Moss made Daunte Culpepper.  And Tate has never been a big TD producer.  A lot of things need to go right for Tate to be a top 10 or so WR.  I would much rather have Maclin, Baldwin, or Cobb at around Tate's price point.  These 3 WRs all have a decent chance at 10 or so TDs which is likely needed to be a top 10 WR.  BTW, my projection for Tate is 90 rec, 1000 yds, 6 TD, which is WR25 on my list.  For reference, in my of my PPR leagues, Jarvis Landry was WR11 and he had 111 receptions (and only 4 TDs).

I am torn on Brady......I agree that Brady should put up nice numbers when he returns, but a 6th round pick is a high price to pay to not be available for you for 5 of your 13 regular season weeks.  It really depends on how early you need to secure your backup/"starter" for the 1st 4 weeks.  If backup QBs are going late, then Brady is a decent buy at 6.09.  If you need to spend a 10th round pick on your other QB, then I would just rather take Eli in the 8th.

100% agree with Eli.......you can stock up on RBs/WRs and take Eli in the 8th and you're going to get production close to a top 5 QB.  I will be targeting Eli in a lot drafts this year.

100% agree with Ertz.....if Wentz becomes the QB, rookie QBs love their TEs...so I can see Ertz having 70-75 reception potential.......Ertz is the reason why I would probably scratch off Gronk/Reed/Olsen from my draft lists.

 
Dizzy said:
Good stuff TripItUp,

I am fully with you on Brandon Marshall and Golden Tate. Eli is annually undervalued IMO.

Can't really see it with Brady... missing weeks 1-4, bye in week 9, and his numbers for the 2nd half of 2015 season were mid-pack (depending on scoring system).
Click to expand...
Down the stretch, Lewis was out, Gronk was out or banged up, Edelman was out, Amendola was banged up, the OL was playing almost all back ups, Blount was out, and Brady was throwing to guys like Keyshawn Martin and Brandon Bolden, All you need to do is look at the NE offense when guys are healthy, then you can see what Brady's production is as a baseline. If you think the NE offense is going to be swamped with injuries again, then looking at the end of last season makes sense.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Down the stretch, Lewis was out, Gronk was out or banged up, Edelman was out, Amendola was banged up, the OL was playing almost all back ups, Blount was out, and Brady was throwing to guys like Keyshawn Martin and Brandon Bolden, All you need to do is look at the NE offense when guys are healthy, then you can see what Brady's production is as a baseline. If you think the NE offense is going to be swamped with injuries again, then looking at the end of last season makes sense.
Click to expand...
Yes, I think we can definitely expect Gronk, Lewis, and Amendola to all miss games again. That seems to be a pretty reliable trend for these guys. Edelman already nicked up and LaFell left town. I just don't see a massive separation for Brady from a huge pack of productive QB's.

 
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