I think the biggest question facing drafters especially at the back end of the draft, Is when to draft Gronk. I think Gronk is arguably the best fantasy player in football outside the big 3 WR. The problem is taking Gronk that early makes it so challenging to put together a balanced line up. If Gronk puts up a season similar to his 2011 season he may absolutely be worth it.
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When to draft Rob Gronkowski? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter hotboyz
- Start date
I agree what makes it hard is the incredible run expected to happen with The Wr position this season
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I am a bit concerned with the mix of Brady suspension, Bennett stealing TDs and Edelman possibly being hurt (the splits last year without Edelman were a bit worrisome).
The most important part in determining if Gronk is a good early pick for your league are the starting lineup requirements. If it's 3WR, 2RB,1TE then I don't like Gronk as much since he can only cover 1 spot as opposed to the 2 or 3 a RB or WR can fill. I play in a 2WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR/TE. I really like Gronk more here since he can fill 2 spots.
The most important part in determining if Gronk is a good early pick for your league are the starting lineup requirements. If it's 3WR, 2RB,1TE then I don't like Gronk as much since he can only cover 1 spot as opposed to the 2 or 3 a RB or WR can fill. I play in a 2WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR/TE. I really like Gronk more here since he can fill 2 spots.
My league set up may lend itself to taking Gronk. 12 Tm PPR start 1rb 1wr 1te 3 flex Rb/WR/Te with the ability to play multiple Te could even consider drafting Gronk and Bennett
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The good there is that Gronk can cover 4 spots, including the elusive TE spot which makes him very valuable. However, the PPR does hurt him a bit. Based on ppg last year Gronk would have been WR14 in PPR where he would have been WR9 in standard. Not sure exactly how to evaluate him there.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Top 5. In fact, I might say he should go 3rd after Beckham and Brown.
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Insoxicated
PATS HOMER TAKE:Ilov80s said:
This is valid, though Gronk's splits late last year had as much to do with having to stay in and block to help the patchwork offensive line as it did with Edelman being gone.... if not more. The OLine is reportedly healthy and ready to go, so Gronk SHOULD be free to roam again.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
That is a very good point. I did notice that. I don't have any data on routes run. Here is the difference pro-rated for 16 games. With Edelman: 133 targets, 87 receptions,1433 yards, 14 TDs. Without: 120 targets, 61 receptions, 987 yards and 8 TDs. So even though there wasn't a big difference in targets, there was a huge difference in production. This was a small sample size and the offense in general was struggling a bit without Edelman and Lewis (who is also no guarantee to be ready). I don't know much about when/if the o-line got healthy or improved last year, but it might be worth noting that Edelman played in both playoff games and Gronk had 23 targets, 15 receptions, 227 yards and 3 TDs. Again, small sample sizes but enough to have me a bit concerned if Edelman isn't ready for the year.
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Insoxicated
Certainly not trying to imply that the absence of Edelman and Lewis didn't result in much tighter coverage for Gronk. Just saying that, as someone who watched every pats game last year intently (as a homer) and kept an eye on gronk (as an owner), he was kept in to help block a LOT more down the stretch. Just throwing another variable in there, not trying to imply it's the sole cause or anything
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Me nether. I owned Gronk and saw a lot of blocking as well. I am glad to hear the line is looking better right now.Certainly not trying to imply that the absence of Edelman and Lewis didn't result in much tighter coverage for Gronk. Just saying that, as someone who watched every pats game last year intently (as a homer) and kept an eye on gronk (as an owner), he was kept in to help block a LOT more down the stretch. Just throwing another variable in there, not trying to imply it's the sole cause or anything
Ilov80s
Footballguy
If you take Gronk, I think you toss the idea of a balanced lineup out the window and you invest heavily on the WR/TE. Starting a standard draft with something like Gronk, Marshall, Sammy, Decker can give you potential to have four top 12-15WRs in your starting lineup. Again, it depends on league lineup requirements.hotboyz said:
Thunderlips
Footballguy
I'm one who thinks that the Edelman and Lewis situations will (as long as the line is healthy) benefit Gronk earlier on as they'll have to rely on him more......but bring down his numbers as the season goes on and these players return.
Brady being suspended will matter......but I don't think it's a game breaker. Bennett being there will matter.....as maybe you won't see Gronk get as much garbage time stuff.
Brady being suspended will matter......but I don't think it's a game breaker. Bennett being there will matter.....as maybe you won't see Gronk get as much garbage time stuff.
Forget drafting Gronk early....get Bennett who is going as TE16 way later....its almost like people are forgetting the Gronk/Hernandez years when the patriots ran 2 TE sets 71% of the time and Gronk finished as TE 1 while Hernandez finished as TE3...I wouldnt be surprised at all to see NE go 2 TE 70+% of the time again....
Another plus to drafting Bennett is if Gronk gets hurt (has missed games the last 4 seasons) you have a for sure TE1 for those weeks.
Another plus to drafting Bennett is if Gronk gets hurt (has missed games the last 4 seasons) you have a for sure TE1 for those weeks.
Juzaba
Footballguy
I'm not sure how taking Gronk has an effect on whether or not you choose RBs or WRs in later picks. In almost all leagues, you're starting some combination of 5 RB/WRs and drafting 10ish, and the order that you draft them in is pretty irrelevant unless you skew heavily in one direction or the other. So going Gronk > RB > WR > WR > RB > WR is not all that different from going Gronk > WR > WR > WR > RB > RB since they're all gonna end up in your starting lineup anyway. The important question is not which positions you're taking, but which dudes.
Taking Gronk has a greater effect on your QB choices. Most teams will choose their five starting RB/WRs in the first 5 rounds. If you take Gronk, it means one of your other starters has to come from the 6th round instead. If you take Gronk and an early or mid QB, one of your starters comes from the 7th round or later. For a 12-team PPR league, it's the difference between starting the likes of Michael Floyd, Matt Jones, and Jeremy Lankford (5th rounders) vs. Tyler Lockett, Michael Crabtree, and Melvin Gordon (7th rounders). So, if you're taking Gronk in the first, it's probably worth it to go late at QB.
All of this is kinda irrelevant if you pick the right guys. Taking Gronk early should be a function of how confident you are at finding starting-quality talent in the 7th+ round. If you're spending the second half of your draft getting dudes with high upside but not great early chances for production (rookies, handcuffs, etc.), then Gronk is not a good choice. If, however, you spend your second half picks on value dudes you feel confident you can plug in to your lineup in the first few weeks, then Gronk looks more attractive.
Personally, I like taking Gronk in the first, somewhere in front of Brandon Marshall and Jamal Charles but behind Lamar Miller and AJ Green. But if I do that, then I know that I want to look for people like Willie Sneed, Frank Gore, Marvin Jones, or Kamar Aiken in the later rounds. These are guys who I can get late who can go into my starting lineup in weeks 1-4 and not put up a total dud.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
With how much heavier people are going WR earlier in drafts, if you go Gronk and RB with your first two picks, you will be lucky to get 1 of the WR1 potential guys and definitely can't get two of them. With more people going WRs earlier than ever, RBs will slide to more reasonable rounds than usual. While early WR drafters are scooping up the RBs that got pushed down, you are stuck having to start scraps at WR.
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
I love drafting him. Last year I had pick 3 in an FFPC league and jumped on him. Team was third in points even though my team was blown up by drafting Hill and Graham with my 2nd and 3rd picks. I've taken him in smaller leagues and bigger PPR leagues and can't remember not making the playoffs on any team I had him. I find it amusing that for all we play this hobby, people still have this idea that you must fill your starting lineup right away in your draft and somehow it's set in stone. So much happens in between that it's nuts not to consider an absolute (barring injury) advantage. Having him is like years past when you lucky to have Faulk, Priest or LT. Or Rice if you've been around long enough. With parity and the league shifting to all-out passing it just makes sense to me to grab him. Sure my starting lineup week one will not look appealing to some because they will a guy like Torrey Smith in my WR 3 spot or maybe Charles Simms at RB2 but I'm always confident in my ability to improve my roster during the season that it makes it worth it to have that guy that so often single handedly kicks your oppents TE spot's ### 30-5 on any given week. AND, even though I hate the Cheatriots, I absolutely love watching him play!
Wow this is a great response! You're absolutely right we all tend to get caught up in trying to put together this perfect draft. It's Kinda crazy to think that we are willing to pass on maybe the most dominant fantasy player of the last 5 yrs outside of AB of course. Then you realize he's only 26 yrs old he's just hitting his prime! You really gave me food for thought.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
This is really important. Depending how active your league is, how deep benches are, how many teams and what the trade market is like, you are able to churn most of your line up through a year. Drafting players that are sure fire every week starters is important. I like Lamar Miller's upside. However, I acknowledge there is a real downside. It's a new team, new system and while that seems like it's for the better, we don't know yet if Miller really can handle volume. I love AR15, but he's had 1 year of production. He seems too talented for it to be a fluke, but thats what people said about Dwayne Bowe and Braylon Edwards. Peterson is a legend but he is not just out of his prime, but entering an age where we have to question what is left. Charles and Jordy have been elite, but they also aren't available for camp right now due to injury. I love AJ Green and think he might have his best year yet, but excluding his rookie year his season, his career season TD projections range between 8-11. Gronk is one of the few players in the draft that combine years a stable situation, years of of proven production, prime age, relative health, upside (how many NFL players have had a 17 TD season?) and low downside (outside of rookie year his worst 16 game season projection was 1353 and 9).
Thunderlips
Footballguy
If you're going with Gronk....you're in a sense punting on another position.....namely WR or RB. To that, you need to decide which rounds coincide with which tiers of players and whether or not any of those players have a chance to drastically outperform their draft slot.
Yenrub
Footballguy
Almost all of the field had career best years last season (or very close to it) Gronk was just being Gronk
Or maybe the TE position is being used more in the new arena league form of the NFL...
There were 5 TE's all within 3 ppg of Gronk in my league last season and none of which cost close to a 1st round pick...I expect that trend to continue
Yenrub
Footballguy
Look I’m not telling you who to draft or when to draft them I’m just letting you know that most of those guys had career years. While Gronk didn’t put up career highs in anything.
Or maybe the TE position is being used more in the new arena league form of the NFL...
There were 5 TE's all within 3 ppg of Gronk in my league last season and none of which cost close to a 1st round pick...I expect that trend to continue
Barnidge – last season was 79-1043-9, his previous SIX seasons combined was 44-603-3
Jordan Reed – last season was 87-952-11, previously never over 50-500-4. Now he is a young guy and I understand that TE’s typically take a while to mature
Eifert – 52-615-13 – Another young guy so I will assume he is ascending but I am not going to assume that he is going to have another 13 TD season and he is already hurt
Walker – last season 94-1088-6, previous high 65-890. He has a young QB and he seems to be the security blanket so I can see him coming close to last year again
Olsen is the only one that didn’t have a career year
You pretty much made my point for me....I am guessing you think 4 random TE's had career years because of sheer luck...
I am saying in the pass happy NFL more TE's will have good enough seasons to negate Gronk's ppg advantage much more than in years past.
Yenrub
Footballguy
It is hard to say...but barring injury I could see Reed, Olsen and Eifert for sure....I believe Walker benefited from being a safety valve with a rookie QB so his catch totals might come down some. Barnidge will probably have a slow start until RG3 gets benched or hurt and McCown gets to play so his numbers will probably come down some. I also think Fleener could be one to jump up to be within 3 ppg average of Gronk...and I am higher on Dwayne Allen then most...his OC is a former TE and TE's coach...spent tie with Kellen Winslow, Antonio Gates,etc...
I just think drafting a TE in the first for a 3 ppg advantage isn't necessarily worth it when you can get guys later and load up on top wr's/rb's when you have to start 5-6 of them.
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frigid5
Footballguy
One thing to consider is how aggressive the other owners are in blind waiver bidding (especially early in the year) in the league you're considering drafting Rob. In one of my long-time leagues, I feel pretty confident that I can fill any lineup deficiencies created by drafted Gronk early by being willing to spend and react faster than the other conservative owners.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
If you really want him--I think that you can reasonably reach for him anytime 1.4 or after. I don't see him leapfrogging Antonio, obj, or Julio even for those who really want him
If you like him more than you trust any of the top 3-5 drafted RBs in regards to ADP--but are still big into drafting a stud WR early--I think you can grab him up to the 1.8-1.9 range
If he's there in the very late 1st-early 2nd--I think every owner needs to consider drafting him here or anywhere after. Letting him slide much past this point is basically gifting a competitive advantage to opponents that draft after you in the second.
If you like him more than you trust any of the top 3-5 drafted RBs in regards to ADP--but are still big into drafting a stud WR early--I think you can grab him up to the 1.8-1.9 range
If he's there in the very late 1st-early 2nd--I think every owner needs to consider drafting him here or anywhere after. Letting him slide much past this point is basically gifting a competitive advantage to opponents that draft after you in the second.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Using Google is not hard.
http://www.patspulpit.com/2016/8/16/12499606/injury-update-on-patriots-te-rob-gronkowski
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I assumed that wasn't what he was talking about since we've got like 24 hours of reports afterward saying he's not injured.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Ok...don't draft Gronk then.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Barnidge- won't repeat those numbers.
Reed- can repeat if he stays healthy.
eifert- will miss the beginning of the season, but may match gronk on ppg basis.
walker- he is saying he won't repeat last years targets/receptions himself, plus they want to run...a lot. I'm not counting on him being te1 again.
Olsen- will be decent but kb is back and funchess is coming on, those guys are going to take red zone targets because they are huge.
gronk remains on his own tier.
Short Corner
Footballguy
Pretty standard here. You post an injury, you post a link. Vacations have been handed out over this.
Short Corner
Footballguy
I'll take him at 1.09 ih he's there and he has been in all 5 of my mocks.
Oddly in 4 of 5 I got Elliot at 2.04 and Jefferey at 3.09. My last one....
DT
Kelce
Floyd
Gore
Abdullah
Carr (timed out)
Gordon
Oddly in 4 of 5 I got Elliot at 2.04 and Jefferey at 3.09. My last one....
DT
Kelce
Floyd
Gore
Abdullah
Carr (timed out)
Gordon
Anarchy99
Footballguy
There have been whispers that the Patriots may elect to slow play things and sit Gronk all of or most of the rest of training camp. This is exactly what they did with Randy Moss. People started saying that Moss was too hurt to play and the Patriots were not disclosing serious injury, blah, blah, blah.
I have not seen or heard anything that points to Gronk sustaining a major injury. Do not be surprised to see Gronk not participating in practice, not playing in pre-season games, or other wise not seen doing much of anything. If this happens, it is 99.9% a precaution in order to keep him healthy and fresh for the regular season.
If people had man love for Gronk before this, they should continue to carry on with their man love. I have less interest in Gronk this year than others. I don't think his numbers will drop playing with Jimmy G. I just think his numbers may not reach the level of 2011 (as has been the tease for the past few years). I also think there are other tight ends that have performed better than expected, so the gap from Gronk to other tight ends is not as great as originally projected.
I have not seen or heard anything that points to Gronk sustaining a major injury. Do not be surprised to see Gronk not participating in practice, not playing in pre-season games, or other wise not seen doing much of anything. If this happens, it is 99.9% a precaution in order to keep him healthy and fresh for the regular season.
If people had man love for Gronk before this, they should continue to carry on with their man love. I have less interest in Gronk this year than others. I don't think his numbers will drop playing with Jimmy G. I just think his numbers may not reach the level of 2011 (as has been the tease for the past few years). I also think there are other tight ends that have performed better than expected, so the gap from Gronk to other tight ends is not as great as originally projected.
