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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Mike Williams, Chargers

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Clemson redshirt junior WR Mike Williams will be held out of practice on Monday after tweaking his upper hamstring against Boston College.

 

Williams will be evaluated on Tuesday. The star receiver missed all of 2015 after breaking a bone in his neck, but returned this season and has looked outstanding. Williams has 27 catches for 432 yards and three touchdowns on the season. His body control to adjust for targets is some of the best in college football.
 
 
Oct 10 - 11:24 AM

 

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All depends where they go. Williams can be great but if goes to somewhere like Houston, Carolina, SF or Buffalo, among others, he drops right off the list unless those teams also fix their QB issues. 

 

 

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On 11/30/2016 at 2:56 PM, lod001 said:

All depends where they go. Williams can be great but if goes to somewhere like Houston, Carolina, SF or Buffalo, among others, he drops right off the list unless those teams also fix their QB issues. 

 

 

What about Tampa?

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On 11/30/2016 at 1:29 PM, coachbobbyfinstock said:

Dural and Dupree from LSU have to be up there, though im not sure either is a better prospect. 

Sutton from SMU as well. 

 

Both have been disappointing this year neither lived up to expectations. Could have been do to a mediocre QB!?!?!?

Tex

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On 11/30/2016 at 1:09 PM, Brandon Will said:

I have 2 picks in the top 4 this year. Seriously considering Dalvin Cook and Mike Williams.

Outside Mike Williams who do you see that's close? Corey Davis? JuJu?

I have Mike Williams and JuJu on my Devy squad. I would trade either for Davis.

Cook and Davis is the answer here.

Tex

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On ‎12‎/‎2‎/‎2016 at 8:57 AM, Grahamburn said:

What about Tampa?

Far from ideal. He has #1 WR talent. Stinkston is locked in on Mike Evans. He doesn't show much ability to look elsewhere as we can see from the # of targets Evans gets. It would require an injury to make him worth a 1st round FF pick. It would be the same as if he went to ATL.

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On ‎12‎/‎3‎/‎2016 at 1:27 AM, BigTex said:

Both have been disappointing this year neither lived up to expectations. Could have been do to a mediocre QB!?!?!?

Tex

That and Fournette. They are a running team. Only twice did the attempt 30 passes.

 

41 minutes ago, Brandon Will said:

Would you also consider which ever WR goes to Tennessee? Mariota needs a WR1

Yes because the #1 is actually the TE and he's really old.

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18 hours ago, Brandon Will said:

Would you also consider which ever WR goes to Tennessee? Mariota needs a WR1

Watch out if Williams ends up with the Titans.

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7 minutes ago, Brandon Will said:

Some saying he's a hybrid of Watkins, Hopkins, Bryant. Some say he isn't all that. Having 2 top 4 picks this year, rebuilding, I am not sure what to do.

 

Take one of the RBs and Corey Davis.

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In one dynasty league I have the 1.3 and he will most likely fall to me and I probably would take him over Davis.  I could see a team possibly taking him at 1.2 in PPR leagues, but 1.3 or 1.4 is more likely. 

Edited by JohnnyU

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22 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

If he has a good showing against Bama, that would probably cement him as the #1 WR.

I'm interested to see this too.  They exposed Ross' weaknesses.  

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7 hours ago, Brandon Will said:

Some saying he's a hybrid of Watkins, Hopkins, Bryant. Some say he isn't all that. Having 2 top 4 picks this year, rebuilding, I am not sure what to do.

 

So they are saying he will be supremely talented but will have Watkins propensity to get hurt and  Bryant's penchant for off field issues?

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8 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

In one dynasty league I have the 1.3 and he will most likely fall to me and I probably would take him over Davis.  I could see a team possibly taking him at 1.2 in PPR leagues, but 1.3 or 1.4 is more likely. 

What do you see in Williams that you would take him over Davis?

Tex

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14 hours ago, BigTex said:

What do you see in Williams that you would take him over Davis?

Tex

Weak school, weak schedule, weak conference.  In 2016, of the 3 big 10 schools he faced he had less than 100 yards receiving.  In 2015 he had a 3 game stretch where the most yards he had was 52 in any one game and only one of those schools were big 10 (OSU).  However, he did have 154 yards against MSU in the opener.   In 2014 he had less than 50 yards against the only Big 10 school he faced (Purdue).  Now he could be like Jerry Rice from Miss Valley St, but these are red flags IMO and the reason why I would take Mike Williams over Davis.  I don't see him dominating against better competition for the most part and in most cases he flat out was bad or average against good Big 10 competition. 

Edited by JohnnyU

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Weak school, weak schedule, weak conference.  In 2016, of the 3 big 10 schools he faced he had less than 100 yards receiving.  In 2015 he had a 3 game stretch where the most yards he had was 52 in any one game and only one of those schools were big 10 (OSU).  However, he did have 154 yards against MSU in the opener.   In 2014 he had less than 50 yards against the only Big 10 school he faced (Purdue).  Now he could be like Jerry Rice from Miss Valley St, but these are red flags IMO and the reason why I would take Mike Williams over Davis.  I don't see him dominating against better competition for the most part and in most cases he flat out was bad or average against good Big 10 competition. 

I think this is a bit flawed argument.  Let wait until each prospect completes the NFL combine and what team being drafted into.  I still think Corey Davis is the best WR propsect.  I'm sure he had faced double (or even triple) coverage and still produced last year.  While MIke Williams is on a very talent team with great supporting cast, leading by arguably one of top 5 QBs in Power 5 conferences. 

Edited by Aznflyer14

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13 minutes ago, Aznflyer14 said:

I think this is a bit flawed argument.  Let wait until each prospect completes the NFL combine and what team being drafted into.  I still think Corey Davis is the best WR propsect.  I'm sure he had faced double (or even triple) coverage and still produced last year.  While MIke Williams is on a very talent team with great supporting cast, leading by arguably one of top 5 QBs in Power 5 conferences. 

Corey Davis faced inferior competition and when he did face better competition he didn't fare well in 3 years except in one game against Mich St.  That isn't a flawed argument in my book.   While CD may be talented, so is Mike Williams and in my book has a better resume, even after a horrible injury two years ago.

Edited by JohnnyU

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Weak school, weak schedule, weak conference.  In 2016, of the 3 big 10 schools he faced he had less than 100 yards receiving.  In 2015 he had a 3 game stretch where the most yards he had was 52 in any one game and only one of those schools were big 10 (OSU).  However, he did have 154 yards against MSU in the opener.   In 2014 he had less than 50 yards against the only Big 10 school he faced (Purdue).  Now he could be like Jerry Rice from Miss Valley St, but these are red flags IMO and the reason why I would take Mike Williams over Davis.  I don't see him dominating against better competition for the most part and in most cases he flat out was bad or average against good Big 10 competition. 

Davis plays angry like T.O but with a better attitude and better hands. I already have Williams and was just curious as to why you'd take Williams over Davis. I don't totally agree with it but that's why we play this game.

Tex

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40 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Corey Davis faced inferior competition and when he did face better competition he didn't fare well in 3 years except in one game against Mich St.  That isn't a flawed argument in my book. 

Can you unpack this for me? Looking at his game logs I do not see any games where his production is particularly egregious 

    Opp Rec Yds TDs
2016   Northwestern 7 70 0
    Illinois 4 97 0
    Wisconsin 6 73 1
2015   Michigan State 10 154 1
    Ohio State 6 42 0
2014   Purdue 4 46 1
    Air Force 8 176 3

 

Edited by 32 Counter Pass

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20 hours ago, Faust said:

So they are saying he will be supremely talented but will have Watkins propensity to get hurt and  Bryant's penchant for off field issues?

No i believe they were talking about his on field football skills 

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9 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Can you unpack this for me? Looking at his game logs I do not see any games where his product is particularly egregious 

    Opp Rec Yds TDs
2016   Northwestern 7 70 0
    Illinois 4 97 0
    Wisconsin 6 73 1
2015   Michigan State 10 154 1
    Ohio State 6 42 0
2014   Purdue 4 46 1
    Air Force 8 176 3

 

His games against good competition over 3 years of games (except for the MSU game, which I already pointed out), did not particularly look that great and did look very pedestrian.  He dominated weak teams to amass his stats.   While Mike Williams played against better competition and I do put value on that.

Edited by JohnnyU

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Last 7 games Mike Williams played with passing yards allowed ranking and the game he had against them

NC State - 92nd /12-146-1

Florida State - 64th/7-70

Syracuse - 114th/6-106-1

Pittsburgh - 122nd/15-202-1

Wake Forest - 42nd/6-58-1

South Carolina - 30th/6-100-3

Virgina Tech - 38th/5-57

 

Mike Williams averaged 8-105-1 his last 7 games. He definitely surged down the stretch.

Don't have an overall opinion on him yet. I will say that my initial reaction to watching some plays in the Florida State game on Draft Breakdown is Williams looks a little slow off the line and he should have had 8-77-1 in the game because Watson missed him on a 7 yard TD. I need to see him at the combine to see what's under the hood though because he might just be a long strider that looks a little slow but puts up a good 40 time. Anything in the 4.5's is fine.

Edited by Milkman

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On January 5, 2017 at 7:54 AM, Brandon Will said:

Some saying he's a hybrid of Watkins, Hopkins, Bryant. Some say he isn't all that. Having 2 top 4 picks this year, rebuilding, I am not sure what to do.

 

Draft him.

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On 12/2/2016 at 8:57 AM, Grahamburn said:

What about Tampa?

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not but we had to qualify the first Mike Williams as "Tampa Mike Williams".  I don't know if I can handle "the second Tampa Mike".

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10 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

His games against good competition over 3 years of games (except for the MSU game, which I already pointed out), did not particularly look that great and did look very pedestrian.  He dominated weak teams to amass his stats.   While Mike Williams played against better competition and I do put value on that.

I am not advocating Davis over Williams but your response "did not particularly look that great and did look very pedestrian" seems subjective looking at the stats. Maybe a little context is needed here. I play in ppr format and the only game I see that looks pedestrian is the game against Ohio St, which is completely understandable given the talent disparity. 

The danger of using level of competition as a main criteria is that you will then miss on players like Randy Moss, David Johnson or Carson Wentz. I prefer to wait until I see their combine numbers and who drafts nthem. For example, say that Davis and Williams have relatively similar combine numbers but Williams goes to the 9ers and Davis goes to the Eagles. Who would you prefer?

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From 2014-16, Corey Davis played 10 games against opponents that had an above average defense (according to DSRS). Mike Williams played 19. On average, Davis's 10 opponents were 5.9 ppg better than average in points allowed and Williams's 19 opponents were 5.5 ppg better than average. Their average statline in those games:

Corey Davis: 6.3/90.7/1.0
Mike Williams: 5.4/83.9/0.6

Corey Davis
SRS    Year    Opponent    Rec    Yd    TD
14.28    2015    Ohio State    6    42    0
13.18    2016    Wisconsin    6    73    1
10.87    2015    Michigan State    10    154    1
6.32    2015    Toledo    6    139    2
4.99    2016    Northwestern    7    70    0
3.29    2015    Central Michigan    6    45    1
3.14    2015    Georgia Southern    2    16    0
1.38    2016    Ohio    8    144    1
0.99    2014    Air Force    8    176    3
0.54    2015    Ohio    4    48    1

Mike Williams
SRS    Year    Opponent    Rec    Yd    TD
15.02    2016    Ohio State    6    96    0
12.91    2016    Auburn    9    174    0
7.96    2014    Georgia    3    88    0
7.47    2016    Boston College    2    59    1
6.68    2016    North Carolina State    12    146    1
6.64    2016    Virginia Tech    5    57    0
5.41    2016    Florida State    7    70    0
4.92    2016    Wake Forest    6    58    1
4.90    2016    South Carolina    6    100    3
4.79    2014    Louisville    1    23    0
4.23    2014    Oklahoma    9    112    1
3.90    2014    Florida State    2    72    0
3.89    2014    Boston College    8    128    0
3.88    2014    Syracuse    5    72    0
3.73    2016    Georgia Tech    6    61    1
2.95    2016    Louisville    5    70    1
2.61    2014    North Carolina State    6    155    2
2.37    2016    Troy    2    24    0
0.86    2014    Wake Forest    3    29    0

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The competition arguments can really twist things around if you're not careful. They have merit, but you have to be careful not to dig too deep, to the point where you're looking past the skill-set and forgetting that this is all about projecting traits to the NFL.

Remember that the biggest knock on OBJ was his production vs. SEC schools, and that he'd fade against the best competition.

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10 hours ago, DropKick said:

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not but we had to qualify the first Mike Williams as "Tampa Mike Williams".  I don't know if I can handle "the second Tampa Mike".

It was somewhat tongue in cheek. Tampa fans wanted the original Big Mike when he came out. Then we had Tampa Mike who looked like a steal until the nose candy did him in.

3rd time is a charm?

Personally, I prefer Corey Davis, but if Jason Licht likes Clemson Mike then I'm on board.  I can get past the name thing. Tampa needs a WR in the worst way, but so do several teams picking in front of them. I keep seeing Ross mocked to them. No thanks.

I kind of hope they just sign Alshon. 

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On 12/3/2016 at 1:29 AM, BigTex said:

I have Mike Williams and JuJu on my Devy squad. I would trade either for Davis.

Cook and Davis is the answer here.

Tex

Ended up having 1.1, 1.2, 1.6, 1.7 & 13

 

Now what lol Fournette/Cook? Or trade down? Both 3&4 teams need a RB bad.

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Just now, Brandon Will said:

Ended up having 1.1, 1.2, 1.6, 1.7 & 13

 

Now what lol Fournette/Cook? Or trade down? Both 3&4 teams need a RB bad.

No way. Draft both Fournette and Cook. 

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17 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

No way. Draft both Fournette and Cook. 

 

17 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

No way. Draft both Fournette and Cook. 

Thanks - seems the right choice. I also have Henry waiting in the wings... needing WRS bad

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1 hour ago, Brandon Will said:

 

Thanks - seems the right choice. I also have Henry waiting in the wings... needing WRS bad

Still draft Fournette and Cook.

RBs tend to start producing faster than WRs, so if your WR need remains unfilled, you'll be able to flip one for a proven WR much quicker than you'd be able to flip Williams or Davis for a proven RB next season.

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