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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Mike Williams, Chargers

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5 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Either way, I think Clay is far too low in his projections.

Agree, those projections would be something I could see before Henry got hurt, seems awfully light right now.

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2 hours ago, Slapdash said:

That stuck out to me too.  Rivers is going to need a new body to rely on in the redzone.  Chances are there if Mike can put it together.  Treating himself more as a professional is a big step

From what I have seen of Mike Williams in college he can work the seams and over the middle of the field. Its dangerous though. NFL defenders just so much better than the college level, but I could see Williams making more hay in that type of role without a receiving TE being available to them. Williams can win that way.

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

38/457/4 would be quite a disappointment IMO, as would 66 targets. 

As of now, 136 targets have been vacated from last season (Gates, Henry, Oliver, McGrath, Cumberland, Inman), and the team has only added 3 potential new targets:

1. TE Green, who is known as a blocking TE and was signed to play that role and free up Henry to run more routes.

2. 6th round WR Cantrell, who is expected to be the WR5.

3. 7th round RB, who is expected to be behind Gordon and Ekeler.

If the team stands pat, I would expect about 60% of those vacated targets (82) to be added to the 23 targets MW had last season... so I would project around 105 targets for him.

Rumor has it that the team may re-sign Gates. If that happens, I would probably lower that to about 50% if the vacated targets (68) and project MW for about 90 targets. 

Either way, I think Clay is far too low in his projections.

That was my impression as well, and I am not even much of a Williams fan.

Your numbers seem reasonable to me.

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3 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

38/457/4 would be quite a disappointment IMO, as would 66 targets. 

I have to believe the Chargers didn't draft him where they did with those kind of numbers in mind for his second season.

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4 hours ago, Chaka said:

I have to believe the Chargers didn't draft him where they did with those kind of numbers in mind for his second season.

My first thought as well when I read those projections.  I think 90 targets is more realistic.   60 catches and 8 TDs should occur.   

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9 minutes ago, DocHolliday said:

My first thought as well when I read those projections.  I think 90 targets is more realistic.   60 catches and 8 TDs shouldcould occur.   

 

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ESPN's Eric D. Williams expects the Chargers to use more three-wide sets following Hunter Henry's season-ending knee injury.

With Antonio Gates gone and 2017 first-rounder Mike Williams hopefully healthy, the Chargers were likely to lean less on two-TE formations and more on three-receiver sets anyway, but Henry's injury all but assures it. That should open up some more targets for Williams, especially near the end zone -- Henry and Gates combined for 42.2 percent of the Chargers' targets inside the 10 last season. Williams is a solid late-round flier.

Source: ESPN 

May 31 - 11:26 AM

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2 hours ago, Faust said:
Quote

ESPN's Eric D. Williams expects the Chargers to use more three-wide sets following Hunter Henry's season-ending knee injury.

With Antonio Gates gone and 2017 first-rounder Mike Williams hopefully healthy, the Chargers were likely to lean less on two-TE formations and more on three-receiver sets anyway, but Henry's injury all but assures it. That should open up some more targets for Williams, especially near the end zone -- Henry and Gates combined for 42.2 percent of the Chargers' targets inside the 10 last season. Williams is a solid late-round flier.

Source: ESPN 

May 31 - 11:26 AM

They ran about 60% of their plays last year with 3+ WRs. Given HC Lynn's desire for a strong running game, I am skeptical that will go up by a large margin.

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On 5/31/2018 at 1:49 PM, Just Win Baby said:

They ran about 60% of their plays last year with 3+ WRs. Given HC Lynn's desire for a strong running game, I am skeptical that will go up by a large margin.

And how many times did they run out of 3 WR sets...

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4 hours ago, Hairy Snowman said:

And how many times did they run out of 3 WR sets...

The league avg is 58%, they ran it 56% they also ran 12 personnel package 22% of the time while the NFL avg is 19%.

Tex

Edited by BigTex
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12 hours ago, BigTex said:

The league avg is 58%, they ran it 56% they also ran 12 personnel package 22% of the time while the NFL avg is 19%.

Tex

So more often than not they run and room to run more out of the formation.  

Thanks Tex.  :)

Edited by Hairy Snowman

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One of my favorite sleepers this year, along with John Brown (the 2 have been #1/2 on my list for a couple months now).  I define sleeper as someone I can draft in the 10th round, or later, in redraft (12 teamer)

Williams is one of my favorite dynasty buy lows as well.  

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18 hours ago, tombonneau said:

If this dude is healthy Rivers will be top 5 and SD will win the west.

You think Mike Williams was the missing piece preventing this?

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54 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

You think Mike Williams was the missing piece preventing this?

I don't. He's always in the conversation but the addition of Pouncey, and the healthy return of Lamp and Williams make him a much stronger candidate to hit that bar.

The loss of Verett doesn't hurt either.

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WHO IMPRESSED:

Ricky Henne’s Take:

Have a day, Mike Williams! The wide receiver showed exactly why he was the seventh-overall selection in last year’s draft with a bevvy of highlight reel catches. Williams has gotten better each day, but Tuesday was far and away his most solid. Whether it was his full-extension snare over the middle with a man in place to lay him out or a 45-yard bomb down field, the wideout is quickly gaining Philip Rivers’ trust. On defense, undrafted free agent Patrick Afriyie had a pair of back-to-back plays that caught my eye. The 6-2, 240-pound defensive end shed the tackle with ease for a big-time tackle for loss, and then on the next play came around the edge for a sack.

Hayley Elwood’s Take:

Head Coach Anthony Lynn said it in his post-practice presser, but Mike Williams had his best day of camp on Tuesday. Frankly, his performance over the last two days in pads has shown why the Chargers took him with the seventh-overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. He’s making and completing contested catches while playing more physical, aggressive and even a little more cerebral. While what he’s doing in camp is great, what he does on Sundays will be infinitely more important. Still, his performance has been a welcome sight to see thus far.

Chris Hayre’s Take:

After catching a 40-plus yard reception from Philip Rivers on Monday, Mike Williams had his best practice of camp on Tuesday according to Head Coach Anthony Lynn. There was a specific sequence early in which the second-year receiver was hit over the middle and still managed to hold onto the football. It showed toughness, and it was a play that Lynn said “may have woke him up because after that, he had a hell of a practice.” Williams is gaining confidence and is back to making the types of plays he routinely made as an All-American at Clemson.

Report from Tuesday Practice

That's the sound of the buy low window closing shut.

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Would be great to get some use out of him this season 

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Mike Williams was listed with the second-team offense on the Chargers' unofficial depth chart.

Unsurprisingly, Tyrell Williams is running with the first team opposite Keenan Allen. That could remain the case all year, though Williams' 6-foot-4 frame is going to be needed in the red zone with Antonio Gates still a free agent and Hunter Henry out for the season. Williams is a WR5/6 flier who could become more valuable as the year progresses.

Source: Jack Wang on Twitter 

Aug 7 - 7:38 PM

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10 hours ago, Faust said:

Mike Williams was listed with the second-team offense on the Chargers' unofficial depth chart.

Unsurprisingly, Tyrell Williams is running with the first team opposite Keenan Allen. That could remain the case all year, though Williams' 6-foot-4 frame is going to be needed in the red zone with Antonio Gates still a free agent and Hunter Henry out for the season. Williams is a WR5/6 flier who could become more valuable as the year progresses.

Source: Jack Wang on Twitter 

Aug 7 - 7:38 PM

I have to imagine SD .... errrr .... LA will run a lot of 3-wide this year given lack of tight ends.

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3 hours ago, tombonneau said:

I have to imagine SD .... errrr .... LA will run a lot of 3-wide this year given lack of tight ends.

I agree but what is the Travis Benjamin situation? I assume he is still getting a good amount of snaps. 

 

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56 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I agree but what is the Travis Benjamin situation? I assume he is still getting a good amount of snaps. 

 

Just returning from shoulder injury. Sounds like his role will continue to be as return man and stretch-the-field deep threat.

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Mike Williams said he has "a big role in the red zone right now."

With Antonio Gates still unsigned and Hunter Henry out for the year with a torn ACL, the Chargers need to replace 32 percent of their red-zone targets, and Williams always seemed like the best option. "Henry was a big red zone threat, and that's a spot where I can help," Williams said. "So we're working on a lot of that stuff right now." His target share is still uncertain coming off a lost rookie season, but touchdown upside alone makes him worth a look in the double-digit rounds.

Source: ESPN

Aug 9 - 10:24 AM

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idk maybe im a sucker, but im buying in.  been taking him before his adp in best ball leagues over the last week or so.  i feel like pedigree + the need for a red zone presence + hyped camp reports + rule changes lead to a big breakout.  like i said these are best ball leagues where i dont have to figure out when to start him but still i think hes the best option around his adp right now.

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Mike Williams - WR -  Chargers

Mike Williams caught a 25-yard touchdown in the Chargers' second preseason game.

Williams high-pointed a third-quarter fade for his touchdown. He started the Chargers' first preseason game, but played deep into the second half this week. Williams' target share is a concern behind Keenan Allen, but there's potential for him to make a red-zone impact.

Aug 19 - 12:44 AM

 

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That was a beastly TD grab, but it's concerning he is playing so late. Did he play at all with Rivers this week?

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14 hours ago, jtd13 said:

That was a beastly TD grab, but it's concerning he is playing so late. Did he play at all with Rivers this week?

Rivers is the master of the corner end zone fade...he's gonna love Mike!

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Wow that TD grab was nice. Dude looks bigger than he did in college. He seems to be filling out his frame. Of course, it'll take weeks before his bull-beaded coaches move him ahead of the gazelle. Smells like Clinton Portis' rookie year. And many other examples of cream rising. AK41 was in a similar spot this time last year.

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Chris Hayre @chrishayre

Broken record: Mike Williams is catching everything at #ChargersCamp. He just put on a clinic against Saints DBs in 1-on-1s.

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Breakout coming IMO (if he remains healthy). Per DD, the Chargers had a total of 70 red zone targets last season. 23 of those were targets to players not on the roster, most notably Henry and Gates. Allen already led the team with 24, so it seems unlikely his number will go up much if at all. They lost 2 TEs who were very good red zone targets and added none to fill that void. Mike Williams seems most likely to fill that void IMO.

Even if they bring Gates out of retirement, I think MW gets 20 red zone targets, in which case he has a solid chance at double digit TDs.

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Breakout coming IMO (if he remains healthy). Per DD, the Chargers had a total of 70 red zone targets last season. 23 of those were targets to players not on the roster, most notably Henry and Gates. Allen already led the team with 24, so it seems unlikely his number will go up much if at all. They lost 2 TEs who were very good red zone targets and added none to fill that void. Mike Williams seems most likely to fill that void IMO.

Even if they bring Gates out of retirement, I think MW gets 20 red zone targets, in which case he has a solid chance at double digit TDs.

2017 NFL - 20+ Red Zone Targets

(targets - catches - TDs)

Jimmy Graham    SEA    26-16-10
Keenan Allen    LAC    24-11-4
Davante Adams    GNB    23-15-7
Cooper Kupp    LAR    23-13-5
Jarvis Landry    MIA    23-18-9
Rob Gronkowski    NWE    22-11-6
Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    21-12-6
Travis Kelce    KAN    21-10-5
Antonio Brown    PIT    20-11-6
Dez Bryant    DAL    20-11-5

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/redzone-receiving.htm

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I'm slightly fond of Mike although in order for him to truly break out I think he'd need some misfortune to befall either Allen or Tyrell in the form of an injury. At the moment it seems like the pecking order is going to be Allen > Gordon > Mike = Tyrell. I don't think Tyrell is going anywhere. And I'm sure that Benjamin will still be used to stretch the field at times and Ekeler will be involved as well.

At the very least, it's very likely that Whis utilizes 11 personnel more than the 56% of the time he did last year when he had Gates and Henry. That number is sure to rise significantly 

Edited by SameSongNDance

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4 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

2017 NFL - 20+ Red Zone Targets

(targets - catches - TDs)

Jimmy Graham    SEA    26-16-10
Keenan Allen    LAC    24-11-4
Davante Adams    GNB    23-15-7
Cooper Kupp    LAR    23-13-5
Jarvis Landry    MIA    23-18-9
Rob Gronkowski    NWE    22-11-6
Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    21-12-6
Travis Kelce    KAN    21-10-5
Antonio Brown    PIT    20-11-6
Dez Bryant    DAL    20-11-5

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/redzone-receiving.htm

I stand by my post, as long as he is healthy. - 20 red zone targets and a solid chance at double digit TDs.

Of the WRs on this list, how many win on jump balls consistently? Williams is going to be better at that than every WR on this list, and Rivers will give him chances.

ETA: To be clear, I am saying that his expected (by me) strong red zone performance will help him to have a solid chance at double digit TDs. I'm not saying every TD will be within the red zone. Like in the last preseason game, he caught a 25 yard TD. He'll get some of those too.

Edited by Just Win Baby

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2 hours ago, SameSongNDance said:

I'm slightly fond of Mike although in order for him to truly break out I think he'd need some misfortune to befall either Allen or Tyrell in the form of an injury. At the moment it seems like the pecking order is going to be Allen > Gordon > Mike = Tyrell. I don't think Tyrell is going anywhere. And I'm sure that Benjamin will still be used to stretch the field at times and Ekeler will be involved as well.

At the very least, it's very likely that Whis utilizes 11 personnel more than the 56% of the time he did last year when he had Gates and Henry. That number is sure to rise significantly 

You mean like misfortune befell Hunter Henry? Of all of the Chargers' top 4 WRs, Williams' game translates the best to filling the TE void they currently have, going from Henry and Gates to Virgil Green and Sean Culkin.

Assuming Rivers, Tyrell, and Mike are all healthy this season, I will be very surprised if Mike doesn't end up with more targets than Tyrell. I will be surprised if it isn't by a solid margin, too. Importantly, though, even if their targets are similar, I expect Mike is going to get a lot higher quality targets, i.e., red zone targets. Tyrell has proven in his time with the Chargers that he is not a quality red zone target, whereas that skill is what got Mike drafted #7 last year.

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7 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

You mean like misfortune befell Hunter Henry? Of all of the Chargers' top 4 WRs, Williams' game translates the best to filling the TE void they currently have, going from Henry and Gates to Virgil Green and Sean Culkin.

Assuming Rivers, Tyrell, and Mike are all healthy this season, I will be very surprised if Mike doesn't end up with more targets than Tyrell. I will be surprised if it isn't by a solid margin, too. Importantly, though, even if their targets are similar, I expect Mike is going to get a lot higher quality targets, i.e., red zone targets. Tyrell has proven in his time with the Chargers that he is not a quality red zone target, whereas that skill is what got Mike drafted #7 last year.

Yes, like the misfortune that befell Henry. I agree that Mike's game translates best to filling the TE void, specifically in the RZ and I have him putting up TE like numbers. Assuming Allen is the target share black hole that he was last year and the RBs stay as involved in the passing game (as they should) I don't even see how Mike could out target Tyrell by a solid margin unless Tyrell simply wasn't involved. I don't like Tyrell this year for fantasy purposes but I don't think he's just going to disappear. He's a good player and some stats (like his 87th percentile success rate vs. man coverage, 15th ranked DVOA by footballoutsiders, the fact that LAC's most successful play [57% success rate] on 3rd and long was targeting him last year) bear out that in some aspects he's a great player. 

I am however just reading that Tyrell has recently been dealing with a foot injury.

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19 hours ago, SameSongNDance said:

I'm slightly fond of Mike although in order for him to truly break out I think he'd need some misfortune to befall either Allen or Tyrell in the form of an injury. At the moment it seems like the pecking order is going to be Allen > Gordon > Mike = Tyrell. I don't think Tyrell is going anywhere. And I'm sure that Benjamin will still be used to stretch the field at times and Ekeler will be involved as well.

At the very least, it's very likely that Whis utilizes 11 personnel more than the 56% of the time he did last year when he had Gates and Henry. That number is sure to rise significantly 

I don't think Tyell is near the talent Mike is, and if Mike is healthy and shows equal knowledge of the offense, he'll blow Tyrell away in targets.

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4 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I don't think Tyell is near the talent Mike is, and if Mike is healthy and shows equal knowledge of the offense, he'll blow Tyrell away in targets.

I'm not sure about that. Mike is certainly stronger and better at contested catches. Tyrell is a better athlete who is more dangerous after the catch. If Mike Williams is more talented, it might not be by much. 

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4 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

I'm not sure about that. Mike is certainly stronger and better at contested catches. Tyrell is a better athlete who is more dangerous after the catch. If Mike Williams is more talented, it might not be by much. 

I'm a big Tyrell truther but I don't see this as even close. 

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18 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I'm a big Tyrell truther but I don't see this as even close. 

Not close

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If what you guys are saying is true than LAC is home to the best trio of recievers in the league. It's of course possible but since I haven't seen it yet it's hard for me to make that leap. The only types of players that are better than Tyrell by the margin you guys claim Mike to be are players like Allen. Tyrell could start for a lot of teams. 

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Tyrell is physically gifted, there is no question about that. The problem is that, during his time with the Chargers, he has not played up to his physical talent. If he was playing up to his physical talent, he would get more targets than Allen, because he would be a consistent mismatch on every play.

In his big season in 2016, which was driven by opportunity created by injuries to Allen and Stevie Johnson, he frequently ran poor/wrong routes, did a terrible job on contested catches, and just generally exhibited only a surface level understanding of his position. I am a Chargers fan and NC State fan and thus a Rivers fan, and I cannot remember him demonstratively getting on any player so frequently as he did Tyrell in 2016. Rivers had a lot of interceptions in 2016, and a high number of them were targeted at Tyrell. Some were Rivers' fault, but a number of them weren't.

IMO there is a difference between physical skills/talent and football talent. The latter requires an ability to master one's position, be on the same page as the QB, etc. Tyrell may be similarly or even more physically talented that Mike Williams, but IMO will never be as good at playing WR as Mike Williams is going to show this season. 

:2cents: 

BTW, I did NOT want the Chargers to draft Mike W at #7 in 2016, and I still think it was a mistake based on their roster needs, in part because they had Tyrell coming off a breakout season. But that doesn't change my opinion that he is better than Tyrell.

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