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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Mike Williams, Chargers

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Is this guy worth a start this week vs Bungles, especially if you are an OBJ owner who just got blind-sided yesterday? I also have DJ Moore, who right now I am leaning towards, and already am starting Justin Jax in my flex. I like Williams ability and situation but he’s just been so volatile.

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19 minutes ago, BigBlue_RI said:

Is this guy worth a start this week vs Bungles, especially if you are an OBJ owner who just got blind-sided yesterday? I also have DJ Moore, who right now I am leaning towards, and already am starting Justin Jax in my flex. I like Williams ability and situation but he’s just been so volatile.

I'd play DJ and not look back. The Bolts might not need to throw much in this one.

My .02 cents

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DJ > M Williams is the play that makes the most cents .02. Williams gets so few targets and total yards, but a Red Zone target. Chargers up early and Justin runs out the clock in the 4th. 

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Anybody getting on board with Williams in tonight’s potential shootout?

Trying to decide between Williams, Reynolds, and McKenzie for a WR3 spot and leaning MW. He’s played well of late and saw six targets last week against the Bengals, one shy of his season high set back in week 2. There’s a narrative that the Chargers have to pass more to keep up, especially likely missing their top two RBs. What say you?

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8 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

Anybody getting on board with Williams in tonight’s potential shootout?

Trying to decide between Williams, Reynolds, and McKenzie for a WR3 spot and leaning MW. He’s played well of late and saw six targets last week against the Bengals, one shy of his season high set back in week 2. There’s a narrative that the Chargers have to pass more to keep up, especially likely missing their top two RBs. What say you?

Yeah. I'm thinking the same thing but hesitant to pull the trigger. The main thing holding me back is the weather. Cold, drizzly, windy doesn't really set up well for a shootout.

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On 12/9/2018 at 7:37 AM, BigBlue_RI said:

Is this guy worth a start this week vs Bungles, especially if you are an OBJ owner who just got blind-sided yesterday? I also have DJ Moore, who right now I am leaning towards, and already am starting Justin Jax in my flex. I like Williams ability and situation but he’s just been so volatile.

OBJ owner.  Gonna roll with M.Williams since if OBJ doesn't play i'm screwed.

Not playing him confidently, but it's about as good of a matchup possible for him.  🙏

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8 hours ago, JFS171 said:

Anybody getting on board with Williams in tonight’s potential shootout?

Trying to decide between Williams, Reynolds, and McKenzie for a WR3 spot and leaning MW. He’s played well of late and saw six targets last week against the Bengals, one shy of his season high set back in week 2. There’s a narrative that the Chargers have to pass more to keep up, especially likely missing their top two RBs. What say you?

I chickened out. Probably costs me this week too with Mahomes and Tyreek both underperforming. I hate the playoffs ... so random. 

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2 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

I chickened out. Probably costs me this week too with Mahomes and Tyreek both underperforming. I hate the playoffs ... so random. 

Was a pretty tough call. I thought Lockett over him was pretty close but hard to predict Keenan and all his targets would be vacated so soon in the game. 

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Mike Williams caught 7-of-9 targets for 76 yards and two touchdowns in the Chargers' 29-28, Week 15 win over the Chiefs, adding a 19-yard touchdown rush and game-sealing two-point conversion.

Williams was simply everywhere this evening, almost single-handedly willing the Chargers to victory after Keenan Allen was lost for the night with a hip injury in the first half. Williams' first score was a perfectly-placed ball from Philip Rivers where Williams displayed strong hands in the end zone. No. 2 was a rush where Williams took a toss, shed the Chiefs' contain and hit the hole like a running back. No. 3 came with four seconds remaining and was controversial because Williams slightly juggled the ball going out of bounds. He also appeared to get away with a pushoff one play earlier that instead resulted in a Chiefs DPI. For his final act, Williams was left all alone to catch the game-winning two-point conversion. Williams gets to follow up his dominant effort with a tough Week 16 home matchup with the Ravens.

Dec 13 - 11:49 PM

 

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Beast with Kenan/Gordon out.  He is a great player, just need an opportunity to break out.

I think next year will be a really big year for him if he can get the targets.

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Target list in SD next year still looks crowded, even if Tyrell Williams leaves.  Hunter Henry will be presumably be back.  I love M. Williams and I believe talent always rises.  But like the stock market, timing is everything.  For dynasty, he is great.  In other formats, I think he will still just be a WR 2/3 with upside next year.

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The talent is there.  Great offense.  Curious as to what people think of him next season.  WR2 too ambitious?  WR3?

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1 minute ago, mozzy84 said:

are we chasing points starting Williams this week?

Not if Allen is out but looking more like he's playing

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Keenan Allen update on Rotoworld:

Quote

Speaking Thursday, Chargers coach Anthony Lynn once again labeled Keenan Allen (hip) a game-time decision for Saturday night's game against the Ravens.

"He did some things limited in practice this week," Lynn said. "But before I put a player in the game, I like to see them run full speed, that’s all." That test will come in pre-game warmups on Saturday. Thankfully for fantasy players, the Bolts are playing in one of the week's earliest games. Even if Allen does play, it is quite possible he is on a snap count/more of a decoy than true weapon.

Source: Eric Williams on Twitter 

Dec 20 - 8:28 PM

 

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This is one of my hardest choices this week. The potential is clearly there but he is also more likely to lay a goose egg than most of the comparable options. 

Right now I have him benched for Roby Anderson, Robert Foster and Chris Carson (flex) but I'll keep rethinking until kickoff. 

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I have him on a hair pin trigger if I hear Allen sits, match up be damned. Starting Anderson over him at the moment

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Mike Williams caught one pass for seven yards in the Chargers' Week 16 loss to the Ravens.

With Allen back in the lineup, Williams promptly returned to a boom-or-bust WR3 on just three targets. He ultimately suffered the same fate as the rest of Los Angeles' offense, though, being eliminated downfield and having his few opportunities come up short. Rivers attempted to go to him deep on the first play of the game, but was unfortunately picked off. He was also overthrown downfield later in the second half. Denver's downward trending defense presents a good matchup in Week 17 for the second-year pro, but his floor remains dangerously low.

Dec 23 - 12:24 AM

 

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Mike Williams secured five-of-11 targets for 68 yards Sunday in the Chargers’ Divisional Round loss to the Patriots.

It was an eventful day for Williams, who began Sunday's Divisional Round by dropping a would-be 45-yard completion from Philip Rivers. Williams limped off with an apparent leg injury after hauling in a contested 18-yard grab in the first quarter, but only missed a handful of snaps. With shutdown corner Stephon Gilmore draped to Keenan Allen, Williams drew a career-high 11 targets from Rivers with six of those coming in the first half. The former Clemson Tiger was targeted on a two-point conversion in the fourth quarter, but couldn't come up with it. After having his rookie season derailed by injuries, the 2017 first-rounder shined as a sophomore, leading the team with 10 touchdown receptions. He's still a bit boom-or-bust, but Williams' arrow is definitely pointing up heading into year three of his Chargers tenure.

Jan 13 - 5:59 PM

 

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On 12/16/2018 at 10:19 AM, jm192 said:

The talent is there.  Great offense.  Curious as to what people think of him next season.  WR2 too ambitious?  WR3?

he finished at wr24 in my 0.5ppr format. but with only 600 yards receiving his finish was due to his high TD total.

phillip rivers recent history doesnt suggest he can support two top 15 WR's (defnitely has happened in the last 5 years - not even close)... working in his favor is he is a top 10 draft pick with obvious talent. even with tyrell leaving it doesnt seem reasonable to expect much better than this year fantasywise (assuming his yards get a bump and his TD's regress)

 

way too early, but probably going to keep him at an 11th round value in redraft but i think if he goes in the 6th or 7th next year it may be a bit too rich considering his situation and allen's presence 

Edited by iamkoza

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I think he breaks out next year. He flashed what he could do, and he has the pedigree and all the physical tools needed to dominate a lot of CBs in the league. 

Edited by ffmail4me

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Chargers GM Tom Telesco said Mike Williams has the ability to catch 100 passes.

Telesco said that the Chargers have "an offense where we have a lot of guys to get the football to" so Williams isn't needed in that type of role. With Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon back in 2019, it's unlikely that we will see Williams in a WR1-type role, but his usage would be high if something happened to Allen. After a waste of a rookie season due to injuries, Williams broke out for 10 touchdowns, highlighting his play-making ability.

SOURCE: Chargers.com

Feb 28, 2019, 6:23 PM

 

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Mike Williams expects to have an "expanded role" this season.

Drafted seventh overall in 2017 following a standout career at Clemson, Williams labored through an injury-plagued rookie campaign before breaking out for a team-high 10 touchdowns in 2018. He only drew 66 targets, though that number figures to rise significantly following the departure of Tyrell Williams this offseason. "I feel I’m going to get a lot more opportunities than I did last year," said Williams of his role in the Chargers' post-Tyrell passing attack. "A lot more balls coming my way. I’m looking forward to it." We'd expect the third-year field stretcher to be drafted as a borderline WR2 in most fantasy leagues this summer.

SOURCE: chargers.com

Jun 16, 2019, 1:07 PM ET

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Posted (edited)

 

 

Quote

Chris Hayre @chrishayre

Rivers sharp in 7-on-7. Wrapped the period with a TD to a toe-tapping Mike Williams.

 

Quote

Eric Williams @eric_d_williams

Also, two TD catches my Mike Williams in red zone drills, continues to impress.

 

Edited by Faust

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PFF Fantasy Football  @PFF_Fantasy

Fantasy Points / Snap

🏈2018 WR's Weeks 14-17

1. Julio Jones 0.46

2. Breshad Perriman  0.45

3. Mike Williams  0.32

4. DeAndre Hopkins  0.32

Don't sleep on Williams😴

 

 

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5 hours ago, Faust said:

PFF Fantasy Football  @PFF_Fantasy

Fantasy Points / Snap

🏈2018 WR's Weeks 14-17

1. Julio Jones 0.46

2. Breshad Perriman  0.45

3. Mike Williams  0.32

4. DeAndre Hopkins  0.32

Don't sleep on Williams😴

So Breshad Perriman is an even better play it seems? 

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29 minutes ago, Raptors409 said:

This is the kind of guy who can help you win you a championship.

His ADP is starting to climb. Fantasypros has him at 64/WR27 coming off the board. Two mocks I did today he went at 49/21 and 53/23.

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4 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

So Breshad Perriman is an even better play it seems? 

Haha, good point!

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you cant ignore that there is a huge bust potential here. Rivers has never had a #2WR finish in the top 20 of fantasy scoring (williams was close in most formats last year solely due to his 10TD's on 66 targets which i would call unsustainable production)... he's never had a #2WR as talented as williams... either, but still it may be unreasonable to expect him to outperform his ADP if keenan allen is healthy this year

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21 minutes ago, iamkoza said:

you cant ignore that there is a huge bust potential here. Rivers has never had a #2WR finish in the top 20 of fantasy scoring (williams was close in most formats last year solely due to his 10TD's on 66 targets which i would call unsustainable production)... he's never had a #2WR as talented as williams... either, but still it may be unreasonable to expect him to outperform his ADP if keenan allen is healthy this year

maybe keenan allen becomes the number two

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I think the upside potential is greater than the bust potential.   If he can get into that 70-80 catch range this season (which should be doable unless he really regresses somehow) no way he won't finish in the top 20.   He should be a heavy redzone target again too obviously....

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2 hours ago, wiersface said:

maybe keenan allen becomes the number two

I have a really hard time seeing that

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IMO Mike Williams is going to underperform the high expectations some seem to have for him.

Compared to last year, as of today, these targets have been vacated:

  • Tyrell Williams 65
  • Gates 45

But:

  • Henry is back and should get at least 2/3 of those targets
  • Benjamin moves up to the #3 WR, which implies an increase on his 24 targets last season; he also only played 12 games to get those targets

Last season, Mike Williams had 66 targets. I expect those to go up, but it's very difficult for me to see them going up enough that he could increase his catch total from 43 to 70+. He would need 100+ targets for that.

Gordon may hold out, and he had 66 targets last season... but I would expect those targets to generally go to other RBs in his absence.

The biggest factor is that the Chargers only attempted 512 passes last season, which is the fewest they have attempted in a regular season since 2008. However, I doubt there will be a significant increase in pass attempts for these reasons:

  1. HC Anthony Lynn prefers a balanced offense, which they had last season
  2. Their offense was really good last season - despite (purposefully) being #28 in offensive plays, they were #11 in yards, #6 in points, and #3 in yards per play
  3. Their OL is much better at run blocking than pass blocking
  4. They are set to have a top 5 defense this season

Injuries could obviously change everything, but barring major injuries, IMO Williams seems pretty unlikely to perform up to his current top 25 WR ADP.

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

The biggest factor is that the Chargers only attempted 512 passes last season, which is the fewest they have attempted in a regular season since 2008. However, I doubt there will be a significant increase in pass attempts

Good insight. 

Do you see the Gordon holdout affecting the pass attempts? Seems like with only a couple 200 Lb  RBs, they would lean more pass-heavy, with not all of that increase going to the RBs. 

Assuming Gordon actually misses games, that is. 

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Rivers basically never comes off the field; barring injury, in week 3 he’ll pass Eli and move into second place for consecutive starts - every game since the start of 2006.

PA by year (post LT2 era):

2010 541 (7th)

2011 582 (5th)

2012 527 (16th)

2013 545 (13th)

2014 570 (11th)

2015 662 (1st)

2016 578 (10th)

2017 575 (2nd)

2018 508 (14th)

Chargers O plays by year:

2010 1039 (10th)

2011 1048 (5th)

2012 988 (26th)

2013 1060 (12th)

2014 1009 (20th)

2015 1100 (3rd)

2016 1014 (17th)

2017 1020 (14th)

2018 945 (28th)

IDK, maybe I’m just wish casting, but in my projections I have the Chargers running over 1K plays (7 of the last 9 seasons) with 550 PA (5 of the last 9, 4 of the last 5.)

Added to the departed 110 targets, that’s 148 - enough to support MW 100 targets (+34 over 2018), HH 80 targets (+35 more than Gates), with 79 leftover for Benjamin to run 9 routes all day (and a few to distribute elsewhere.)

Doesn’t seem cray cray.

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8 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Rivers basically never comes off the field; barring injury, in week 3 he’ll pass Eli and move into second place for consecutive starts - every game since the start of 2006.

PA by year (post LT2 era):

2010 541 (7th)

2011 582 (5th)

2012 527 (16th)

2013 545 (13th)

2014 570 (11th)

2015 662 (1st)

2016 578 (10th)

2017 575 (2nd)

2018 508 (14th)

Chargers O plays by year:

2010 1039 (10th)

2011 1048 (5th)

2012 988 (26th)

2013 1060 (12th)

2014 1009 (20th)

2015 1100 (3rd)

2016 1014 (17th)

2017 1020 (14th)

2018 945 (28th)

IDK, maybe I’m just wish casting, but in my projections I have the Chargers running over 1K plays (7 of the last 9 seasons) with 550 PA (5 of the last 9, 4 of the last 5.)

Added to the departed 110 targets, that’s 148 - enough to support MW 100 targets (+34 over 2018), HH 80 targets (+35 more than Gates), with 79 leftover for Benjamin to run 9 routes all day (and a few to distribute elsewhere.)

Doesn’t seem cray cray.

Oh no, it’s definitely feasible. I liked him before the Gordon holdout and now with Gordon we know there will be more passing for a variety of reasons.

He passes the eyeball test big time for me. People talk about his unsustainable TD numbers. He has such high numbers because he gets a ton of targets in the redzone.

It’s not an anomaly. Rivers targets him more in the RZ.

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6 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Rivers basically never comes off the field; barring injury, in week 3 he’ll pass Eli and move into second place for consecutive starts - every game since the start of 2006.

PA by year (post LT2 era):

2010 541 (7th)

2011 582 (5th)

2012 527 (16th)

2013 545 (13th)

2014 570 (11th)

2015 662 (1st)

2016 578 (10th)

2017 575 (2nd)

2018 508 (14th)

Chargers O plays by year:

2010 1039 (10th)

2011 1048 (5th)

2012 988 (26th)

2013 1060 (12th)

2014 1009 (20th)

2015 1100 (3rd)

2016 1014 (17th)

2017 1020 (14th)

2018 945 (28th)

IDK, maybe I’m just wish casting, but in my projections I have the Chargers running over 1K plays (7 of the last 9 seasons) with 550 PA (5 of the last 9, 4 of the last 5.)

Added to the departed 110 targets, that’s 148 - enough to support MW 100 targets (+34 over 2018), HH 80 targets (+35 more than Gates), with 79 leftover for Benjamin to run 9 routes all day (and a few to distribute elsewhere.)

Doesn’t seem cray cray.

Last year’s Chargers offense is what HC Lynn wants. And it’s easy to see why, given the efficiency they achieved.

Gordon missing games could affect that efficiency, but, then again, the defense should be quite a bit better than last year, which should offset. 

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3 hours ago, jtd13 said:

Good insight. 

Do you see the Gordon holdout affecting the pass attempts? Seems like with only a couple 200 Lb  RBs, they would lean more pass-heavy, with not all of that increase going to the RBs. 

Assuming Gordon actually misses games, that is. 

I am skeptical that Gordon will miss more than a few games, if any. I also think the Chargers have a very promising group of RBs behind him, including Ekeler (200 lbs), Jackson (199 lbs), Newsome (210 lbs), and Cox (236 lbs). With this group and their defense, I doubt a Gordon holdout would force them into a pass heavy offense.

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