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What are some 2015 trends that could repeat in 2016? (1 Viewer)

Z

zftcg

Footballguy
Bill Barnwell once wrote an article for Grantland where he identified trends from the previous NFL season and tried to guess at their analogues for the upcoming one. I thought it would be fun to make similar guesses focused specifically on fantasy. Yes, some of the comparisons are facile, and as with stocks, past returns are not predictive of future performance. Anyway, here are a few off the top of my head:

  1. Defense that makes a leap after hiring proven coordinator

    • 2015: Denver
    • Potential 2016 analogue: Eagles
    • Take this one to the bank. Schwartz may not have the track record of Wade Phillips, but he's built very strong defenses for both Tennessee and Buffalo (although, paradoxically enough, Detroit's D mostly stunk when he was HC). They also have Jordan Hicks back -- the D fell off a cliff after he got hurt last year. And as an added bonus, Philly faces Cleveland in Week 1, which makes them a great streaming option if nothing else.
  2. Second-year RB who blew up in the second half of his rookie year and is now a first-round pick

    • 2015: CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill
    • Potential 2016 analogues: David Johnson, Thomas Rawls
    • I'm less confident in this one, especially with respect to Johnson, and my worries with Rawls have more to do with his injuries. But I'd be lying if I said last year didn't make me a little scared to take DJ in the first
  3. Second-year QB primed to make the leap to elite fantasy production

    • 2015: Bortles
    • Potential 2016 analogue: Winston
    • I still don't think Bortles is a great NFL QB, and his numbers last year may have been fluky and unrepeatable, but obviously his redraft owners didn't care. I think Winston's leap will be more sustainable.
  4. Teammate of QB from previous example who will come along for the ride

    • 2015: Allen Robinson
    • 2016: Mike Evans
    • Not a perfect comparison, since Robinson did it in his second season and Evans has already put up two solid years' worth of production. But I think because of his drops and lack of TDs last year, Evans still isn't considered in the WR1 conversation. My guess is that changes after this year. (And for the record, I'm not suggesting that Bortles carried Robinson to WR1 status; if anything it was the other way around. I just meant that if a QB is putting up elite numbers, there's a good chance there'll be a strong WR1 on the team as well).
  5. Second-year QB who will be held back by his system

    • 2015: Bridgewater
    • Potential 2016 analogue: Mariota
    • Exotic smashmouth. 'nuff said.
  6. QB destined to regress after unsustainable INT rate

    • 2013: Nick Foles
    • Potential 2016 analogue: Cousins
    • OK, I cheated and took an older example. But man, am I getting a bad vibe on Cousins this year. I'll grant that he has better weapons than Foles did, and as a Washington homer I hope I'm wrong, but even as a late-round option I'm going to be wary of drafting him.
Any others?

 
Did you come up with this entire OP yourself? That's quite an impressive list. Here's my addition:

7. Young WR so widely expected to "make the leap" that he winds up getting drafted close to his ceiling

  • 2015: Charles Johnson
  • Potential 2016: DeVante Parker
Parker was banged up last season and again this summer, and even if healthy can't be expected to maintain 19 YPC on increased volume from a QB as shaky with the deep ball as Tannehill. And his 2015 late-season run of 6 games was excellent, but eerily reminiscent of Johnson's 2014. Add it all up and I'm more likely to take a flier on him in 2017 as a post-hype sleeper than in 2016 ahead of guys like Hurns, Lockett, and Marvin Jones.

 
Nice list so far - 

1. Defense that makes a leap after hiring proven coordinator

  • 2015: Denver
  • Potential 2016 analogue: Eagles
  • Take this one to the bank. Schwartz may not have the track record of Wade Phillips, but he's built very strong defenses for both Tennessee and Buffalo (although, paradoxically enough, Detroit's D mostly stunk when he was HC). They also have Jordan Hicks back -- the D fell off a cliff after he got hurt last year. And as an added bonus, Philly faces Cleveland in Week 1, which makes them a great streaming option if nothing else.
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My addition to this bullet point is Jaguars.

They have spent a ton of resources in FA and Draft to fix their defensive woes over the past few years, and I think this year they may turn into a serviceable DST this year. Dante Fowler is back from injury and has looked very good, in free agency they signed Malik Johnson from Denver/Tashaun Gipson from Cleveland/Prince Amukamura from NYG, and drafted Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack.

I'm not saying they are going to be a top defense, but if I am waiting until late in the draft for a defense, I am likely going to go with the Jaguars - I really think they could surprise this year in the AFC South. At minimum they should be streamed in a favorable matchup.

 
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Mr. Irrelevant said:
Did you come up with this entire OP yourself? That's quite an impressive list. Here's my addition:

7. Young WR so widely expected to "make the leap" that he winds up getting drafted close to his ceiling

  • 2015: Charles Johnson
  • Potential 2016: DeVante Parker
Parker was banged up last season and again this summer, and even if healthy can't be expected to maintain 19 YPC on increased volume from a QB as shaky with the deep ball as Tannehill. And his 2015 late-season run of 6 games was excellent, but eerily reminiscent of Johnson's 2014. Add it all up and I'm more likely to take a flier on him in 2017 as a post-hype sleeper than in 2016 ahead of guys like Hurns, Lockett, and Marvin Jones.
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Thanks. I wrote the first three and was literally about to hit post when I started thinking of additional ones.  :)

Of course, you could also go with "2nd year Vikings WR who flashed as a rookie and will inevitably disappoint." They've done it two years in a row with Patterson and Johnson. The only difference this year is that, because Diggs flashed in the middle of the season rather than at the end, people have kind of baked in his regression already.

There also may be something with John Brown and Tyler Lockett, but I couldn't put my finger on exactly what the comp is.

 
The Hank said:
Nice list so far - 

My addition to this bullet point is Jaguars.

They have spent a ton of resources in FA and Draft to fix their defensive woes over the past few years, and I think this year they may turn into a serviceable DST this year. Dante Fowler is back from injury and has looked very good, in free agency they signed Malik Johnson from Denver/Tashaun Gipson from Cleveland/Prince Amukamura from NYG, and drafted Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack.

I'm not saying they are going to be a top defense, but if I am waiting until late in the draft for a defense, I am likely going to go with the Jaguars - I really think they could surprise this year in the AFC South. At minimum they should be streamed in a favorable matchup.
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Maybe, although I could also see the Jags being this year's Dolphins -- D everyone is expecting big things from because of their new additions that inevitably disappoints. (And yes, now that you mention it, I did draft Miami ahead of Denver last year -- in spite of correctly predicting the Phillips bump -- because I thought Miami had a better Week 1 match up. Not that I'm bitter or anything.)  :wall:

 
8. Regression of Top QB back to their prior two year normal

  • 2015: Luck
  • Potential 2016: Newton
  • Luck averaged 21 ppg in 2013 and 2012.  In 2014 he averaged 30 ppg and then regressed back to near his normal at 23 ppg in 2015.
    Cam averaged 23 and 22 ppg in 2014 and 2013 respectivly.  In 2015 he averaged 29 ppg.  I could see a regression back to around 24 to 25 ppg.  
9.  RB who had great success for a couple years is then drug down by horrible coaching and crappy team rebounds to have a great season.

  • 2015: Doug Martin
  • 2016: Demarco Murray
  • Martin was written off for dead last year at this time, but under the new coaching staff he rebounded with a great season.  Murray is leaving some horrible coaching to a team with a coach that is saying they want to run with him.  
 
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abbottjamesr said:
8. Regression of Top QB back to their prior two year normal

  • 2015: Luck
  • Potential 2016: Newton
  • Luck averaged 21 ppg in 2013 and 2012.  In 2014 he averaged 30 ppg and then regressed back to near his normal at 23 ppg in 2015.
    Cam averaged 23 and 22 ppg in 2014 and 2013 respectivly.  In 2015 he averaged 29 ppg.  I could see a regression back to around 24 to 25 ppg.  
9.  RB who had great success for a couple years is then drug down by horrible coaching and crappy team rebounds to have a great season.

  • 2015: Doug Martin
  • 2016: Demarco Murray
  • Martin was written off for dead last year at this time, but under the new coaching staff he rebounded with a great season.  Murray is leaving some horrible coaching to a team with a coach that is saying they want to run with him.  
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:goodposting:

One nitpick: Martin did not have a new coaching staff last year. It was Lovie's (and Koetter's) second year with the team. But you could also say "Injury-plagued RB who stays healthy and gets back to previous level"

 
10. Last-round flier who backs into a top-30 season by accumulating targets on a bad team

  • 2015: Kamar Aiken
  • Potential 2016: Rishard Matthews
Hey, guess what team led the entire NFL in passing attempts last season? Well, actually, you probably can guess, since I put the question under the 2015 comp - but did the Ravens intend to come out and take the league by storm with Son of Fun'n'Gun? No, they threw a lot because they were behind a lot. And Aiken was the beneficiary, thanks to some ability to get open, some injuries ahead of him, and a lot of 31-14 4th-quarter deficits. Matthews has name recognition and draft pedigree similar to Aiken's (i.e. virtually none), but (like Aiken in '14) graded out well in limited usage on FO's DYAR and other advanced metrics. Plus, he was thought enough of to command a decent FA contract from the Titans. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him parlay a 4-12 Titans season into 125 targets and borderline fantasy-starter numbers at a WR62 ADP.

 
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OK, thought of one more, plus a couple half ones. The full one is:

  • UFA RB who could take over once veteran bell cow finally runs out of gas

    2015: Rawls
  • 2016: Josh Ferguson 

The halves are: 

  1. Way overhyped sleeper who quickly gets supplanted by an out-of-nowhere UFA

    • 2015: Brandon Coleman/Willie Snead
    • 2016: ??? (best I can think of is Bruce Ellington)
  2. Guy who seems poised for breakout after injury to WR1, then craps the bed

    • 2015: Davante Adams
    • 2016: ??? (have to see who gets injured)
 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
10. Last-round flier who backs into a top-30 season by accumulating targets on a bad team

  • 2015: Kamar Aiken
  • Potential 2016: Rishard Matthews
Hey, guess what team led the entire NFL in passing attempts last season? Well, actually, you probably can guess, since I put the question under the 2015 comp - but did the Ravens intend to come out and take the league by storm with Son of Fun'n'Gun? No, they threw a lot because they were behind a lot. And Aiken was the beneficiary, thanks to some ability to get open, some injuries ahead of him, and a lot of 31-14 4th-quarter deficits. Matthews has name recognition and draft pedigree similar to Aiken's (i.e. virtually none), but (like Aiken in '14) graded out well in limited usage on FO's DYAR and other advanced metrics. Plus, he was thought enough of to command a decent FA contract from the Titans. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him parlay a 4-12 Titans season into 125 targets and borderline fantasy-starter numbers at a WR62 ADP.
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I hate all the Ten receiving options other than Walker.

Instead, how about Bruce Ellington, SF?

 
The veteran QB resurgence:

In 2012, Philip Rivers had a very bad year by his standards.  Less than 3700 yards, 7 YPA and a 26/15 TD:INT ratio.  In 2013, FFCalc had his draft position at #181 as QB24.  Was being drafted behind EJ Manuel.  Went on to throw for close to 4500 yards and a 32/11 TD:INT ratio.

2015 parallel: Matt Ryan

Another veteran QB being written off as damaged goods...his 2015 was extremely unimpressive; 21/16 TD:INT ratio.  But he's in Year 2 of an offensive system with a reinforced OL (Alex Mack) and Julio Jones at his peak.  He's being drafted as QB19.  You can get him in Round 11/12

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
Did you come up with this entire OP yourself? That's quite an impressive list. Here's my addition:

7. Young WR so widely expected to "make the leap" that he winds up getting drafted close to his ceiling

  • 2015: Charles Johnson
  • Potential 2016: DeVante Parker
Parker was banged up last season and again this summer, and even if healthy can't be expected to maintain 19 YPC on increased volume from a QB as shaky with the deep ball as Tannehill. And his 2015 late-season run of 6 games was excellent, but eerily reminiscent of Johnson's 2014. Add it all up and I'm more likely to take a flier on him in 2017 as a post-hype sleeper than in 2016 ahead of guys like Hurns, Lockett, and Marvin Jones.
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While I can agree with your overall premise that Johnson was being drafted near his ceiling last year and perhaps Parker is being drafted near his, the comparison between these two players and situations are very different.

Charles Johnson was a 7th round pick by the Packers who was briefly on their practice squad before Cleveland picked him up and put him on their IR. Parker was a 1st overall pick.

The year before Cordarralle Patterson had a few big games and people over valued him a lot. Charles Johnson took over the X WR position and had a few good games near the end of the 2014 season.

Charles Johnson 59 targets 31 receptions 52.5% catch rate 475 yards 15.3 yards per reception 8.05 yards per target 2 TD

DeVante Parker.50 targets 26 receptions 52% catch rate 494 yards 19 yards per reception 9.88 yards per target 3 TD

The above comparison is of Johnson in his second season at age 25 to Parkers rookie season at age 22.

The Vikings do not throw the ball as much as Miami will with Gase as their head coach. Gase utilizes a lot of hurry up no huddle, more than most NFL coaches besides Chip Kelly.

I do think the ADP is similar. Parker is being drafted at 56th overall in recent redraft PPR leagues, 57th in non PPR leagues, so about the same. I think Johnson was being drafted in this range although I didn't think he was worth that at the time.

Parker seems like a value to me at this ADP rather than being drafted at his ceiling.

 
Great posts and thread. Thanks. Not sure something happening once in 2015 makes it a trend, yet great stuff nonetheless.

WR scoring surpassing RB value in standard.

Historically top 24 RBs have outscored 24 WRs in standard. It used to not even be close. For example in 2006 Harrison was the WR1 with 206 points. The RB1 LT had more than double that with 416. 8 RBs scored more points than Harrison that year. RBs were king 10 years ago. The game has changed since then (both real and fantasy game). I looked at the average expected points scored by a top 24 RB by adding up the total points for the players finishing at RB 1,6,12,18 24 and then dividing by 5. I did the same for WRs. Here are the numbers for the last 5 years:

2011:  RB 197, WR 176. 

2012: RB 194, WR 172

2013: RB 196, WR 175

2014: RB 192, WR 180

2015: RB 171, WR 183

We see that WR scoring has been trending up while RB scoring has been trending down. Will the trend continue? Has it leveled off? Will it reverse? My opinion is that the fall from 192 to 171 is due to the significant injuries to Bell, Foster, Charles, etc. and we aren't likely to see such so many games missed by so many top backs again. However, I do think the downward trend continues as RBBC has only become more common and most of the marquee RBs seem to be in their twilight. . I also think we continue to see WR scoring increase. Passing is like the three point shot in the NBA, teams are learning that it is more efficient. We will see more passing, more up tempo play and this is buoyed by what seems to be the greatest collection of WR talent the league has ever seen. 

My projection is

2016: RB 187, WR 185. 

The WR position continues to narrow the gap. What this means is that you can almost consider the two positions as equal producers for standard and draft decisions should come down more to roster configuration than anything. This means in a league that starts 2 RBs and 3 WRs, you want to draft WR heavy because it accounts for a much greater % of your weekly points. 

 
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TheDirtyWord said:
The veteran QB resurgence:

In 2012, Philip Rivers had a very bad year by his standards.  Less than 3700 yards, 7 YPA and a 26/15 TD:INT ratio.  In 2013, FFCalc had his draft position at #181 as QB24.  Was being drafted behind EJ Manuel.  Went on to throw for close to 4500 yards and a 32/11 TD:INT ratio.

2015 parallel: Matt Ryan

Another veteran QB being written off as damaged goods...his 2015 was extremely unimpressive; 21/16 TD:INT ratio.  But he's in Year 2 of an offensive system with a reinforced OL (Alex Mack) and Julio Jones at his peak.  He's being drafted as QB19.  You can get him in Round 11/12
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Give me some Joe Flacco.  Just below 4000 yards and 30 TDs in 2014, but he and SmithSr and Forsett and Suggs and others injured last year in Year 1 of Tressman.  In Year 2, add Mike Wallace, Ben Watson, depth at RB and maybe get an appearance by Perriman finally.  Being drafted just before Sanchez, RGIII, etc.  Criminally undervalued.

 
Ilov80s said:
Great posts and thread. Thanks. Not sure something happening once in 2015 makes it a trend, yet great stuff nonetheless.
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Yeah, "trend" was probably the wrong word. Maybe "pattern" would have been better? "Scenario"?

Like I said, I mostly started this thread for fun. The two predictions I would stand behind are Eagles D and Cousins, because they're both based on specific factors (impact of a new DC and INT rate regression) that have a number of historical precursors.

By contrast, I don't think the fact that Hill and CJA busted last year really has any connection to whether DJ and Rawls do it this year. It's all just surface similarities. And while I think Evans will become elite this year, it's more because of his artificially low TDs last year, not anything connected to Allen Robinson.

 
I'll concur with the excellentness of this thread. Whether or not there is a true year-after-year correlation, it still makes for a fun way to investigate the upcoming season.

My addition:

"Back-Up Caliber" QB Becomes Legit Starter Under New Coach:

  • 2015: Ryan Fitzpatrick
  • Potential 2016 Analogue: Blaine Gabbert
  • Fitzpatrick always had decent talent and was a smart QB, but never seemed to shine until he was traded to the Jets (with new HC Bowles plus OC Gailey) and unexpectedly fell into the starting job to become a reasonable starter (at least streamer) in FF.
  • Gabbert always had decent talent but never shined with the Jags. Traded to the Niners in 2014 and unexpectedly fell into the starting job at the back end of the 2015 season. Under new HC Chip Kelly, the Niners have potential to be a dumpster fire, BUT the offense could develop into something worthwhile if Gabbert takes the reins and shines (let's not forget those few glorious weeks of Nick Foles in Kelly's first year with the Eagles).
Probably a long shot but bears consideration.

Note - You could probably put RG3 as a possibility above but he did "shine" for a brief period.  I consider Gabbert more like Fitzpatrick in that he started but never breached the upper tiers of QB ranks.

 
Here is a follow-up to me post on the scoring trends of top 24 RB vs top 24 WR. This time I just looked at points per game with the hope of eliminating the impact of injury. I just wanted to see if the actual use and production of the positions has changed for fantasy. 

2006 RB 15.6     WR 10.8 

2007 RB 13.2     WR 12.2

2008 RB 13.6     WR 10.4 

2009 RB 13.8    WR 10.6

2010 RB 14       WR 11

2011 RB 14      WR  11.8 

2012 RB 13.4    WR 11.2

2013 RB 13.8    WR  12

2014 RB 13      WR  12.2

2015 RB 12.8    WR   12.4

 
tangfoot said:
I hate all the Ten receiving options other than Walker.

Instead, how about Bruce Ellington, SF?
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Ellington certainly fits the bill of "WR with potential on a bad team without a lot of other options," but for one, his body type and game are very similar to the Niners' existing WR1, and for another, Chip's WR2s haven't exactly put up monster numbers (IIRC they averaged a WR56 finish during his time in PHI). Plus, obviously, Mariota >> Gabbert or Kaep.

Unfortunately, I think the DGB trade is going to impact Matthews' draft stock for the better. He may wind up settling in the WR50 range come Labor Day ... still a value, but not necessarily someone who's going to be there for you in the last round.

Biabreakable said:
Parker seems like a value to me at this ADP rather than being drafted at his ceiling.
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In order to believe this, you either have to believe that Landry isn't really for real, or that the Dolphins' pass offense will be robust enough to support two top-24 fantasy WRs. I can't remember whether it's you or Ninja (or both) who's so down on Landry but, while I've never owned a share of him, I've started to come around on him being a reliable slot guy. And I'll believe the latter with Tannehill under center when I see it. If it means I'm a year too late to the party, oh well, c'est la vie.

 
abbottjamesr said:
8. Regression of Top QB back to their prior two year normal

  • 2015: Luck
  • Potential 2016: Newton
  • Luck averaged 21 ppg in 2013 and 2012.  In 2014 he averaged 30 ppg and then regressed back to near his normal at 23 ppg in 2015.
    Cam averaged 23 and 22 ppg in 2014 and 2013 respectivly.  In 2015 he averaged 29 ppg.  I could see a regression back to around 24 to 25 ppg.  
9.  RB who had great success for a couple years is then drug down by horrible coaching and crappy team rebounds to have a great season.

  • 2015: Doug Martin
  • 2016: Demarco Murray
  • Martin was written off for dead last year at this time, but under the new coaching staff he rebounded with a great season.  Murray is leaving some horrible coaching to a team with a coach that is saying they want to run with him.  
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Nah on #9.  Elite running back success = dominate O-line.  Titans have the 29th ranked o-line going into this year.  Peterson would not be a top 8 back on the Titans, sorry.

 
Phenomena said:
Nah on #9.  Elite running back success = dominate O-line.  Titans have the 29th ranked o-line going into this year.  Peterson would not be a top 8 back on the Titans, sorry.
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Peterson is the top back on any team with any line.  Now that we cleared that up.

I don't necessarily thing Murray is going to produce what Martin did last year.  But Murray has talent, he wasn't some one year wonder who happened to play behind a great line one year.  I was just pointing out that he could have a resurrection like Martin did last year by being used properly.

 
abbottjamesr said:
Peterson is the top back on any team with any line.  Now that we cleared that up.

I don't necessarily thing Murray is going to produce what Martin did last year.  But Murray has talent, he wasn't some one year wonder who happened to play behind a great line one year.  I was just pointing out that he could have a resurrection like Martin did last year by being used properly.
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We'll agree to disagree. 

There's plenty of evidence to support my point of view, though.

1) Arian Foster was not some amazing, elite undrafted player. He was a good player that went undrafted. The truth is he ran behind the league's best zone-blocking offensive line for over 4 years. What happened when Foster got hurt?  Ben Tate looked like an All-Pro. In today's game it's as much (and or more sometimes) about the line play than the running back.

2) Darren freakin' McFadden had 1400 yards from scrimmage running behind the league's best offensive line. In his previous three seasons he barely had that many yards.

Plenty more examples but don't have time to list them all.

Sorry, but no. A 31-year old Peterson would not be a top-5 fantasy back on a talent-depleted team with a sophomore QB and bottom rung offensive line play. 

 
Phenomena said:
We'll agree to disagree. 

There's plenty of evidence to support my point of view, though.

1) Arian Foster was not some amazing, elite undrafted player. He was a good player that went undrafted. The truth is he ran behind the league's best zone-blocking offensive line for over 4 years. What happened when Foster got hurt?  Ben Tate looked like an All-Pro. In today's game it's as much (and or more sometimes) about the line play than the running back.

2) Darren freakin' McFadden had 1400 yards from scrimmage running behind the league's best offensive line. In his previous three seasons he barely had that many yards.

Plenty more examples but don't have time to list them all.

Sorry, but no. A 31-year old Peterson would not be a top-5 fantasy back on a talent-depleted team with a sophomore QB and bottom rung offensive line play. 
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We will probably have to agree to disagree on Peterson, but his age is not relevant because he is a freak of nature.  I would feel comfortable drafting Peterson 1st overall if he were on the Titans this year.  Until the NFL starts allowing Peterson's opposition to play 12 men on defense he will be a first round pick.  People are saying Superman wears Adrian Peterson underwear, people are saying it, I don't know if its true.

Foster's Career Fantasy PPG are


2015


2014


2013


2012


2011


2010


2009


14.3


18.5


10.6


16.6


19.7


20.6


8.8

Tate's Career FPPG are  


2014


2013


2012


2011


6.1


8.2


4.1


8.5

McFadden's Career FPPG are 


2015


2014


2013


2012


2011


2010


2009


2008


10


5.4


8.5


9.5


15.3


17.4


5.5


7.9

Murray's Career FPPG are 


2015


2014


2013


2012


2011


9.6


19


14.8


11.5


9.2

Foster was elite for a long stretch of years with different line men and different coaches.  He was by far the better player than Tate and the stats show it.  McFadden was a fantastic talent in a good situation but injuries kept him from achieving his potential.  Murray has been an exceptional talent for several years.  His worse season was on a crappy team being used poorly and his numbers were better than all of Tate's career and most of McFadden's.  The point is good talent will rise given an opportunity.  You may not feel the Titans are that opportunity or that Murray is not that talented.  I look at the numbers and see talent.  I think the Titans will give Murray an opportunity to succeed.  For the price of admission I am willing to gamble on talent as I see 9.6 ppg as his floor and that is good enough for low end RB2 or a solid flex play. 

 
Dumb post. You're comparing apples and oranges.  Look at games when Tate was the lead back and Foster was injured and the numbers would look dramatically different.  Murray will be lucky to finish above RB15, end of story.

 
Phenomena said:
Dumb post. You're comparing apples and oranges.  Look at games when Tate was the lead back and Foster was injured and the numbers would look dramatically different.  Murray will be lucky to finish above RB15, end of story.
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I recommend not drafting him if you feel this way.  Good luck on your season.

 
Phenomena said:
Sorry, but no. A 31-year old Peterson would not be a top-5 fantasy back on a talent-depleted team  offense with a sophomore QB and bottom rung offensive line play. 
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This cracks me up, as you basically described the Vikings offense as a whole.  Yes, Peterson is that good.

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
Did you come up with this entire OP yourself? That's quite an impressive list. Here's my addition:

7. Young WR so widely expected to "make the leap" that he winds up getting drafted close to his ceiling

  • 2015: Charles Johnson
  • Potential 2016: DeVante Parker
Parker was banged up last season and again this summer, and even if healthy can't be expected to maintain 19 YPC on increased volume from a QB as shaky with the deep ball as Tannehill. And his 2015 late-season run of 6 games was excellent, but eerily reminiscent of Johnson's 2014. Add it all up and I'm more likely to take a flier on him in 2017 as a post-hype sleeper than in 2016 ahead of guys like Hurns, Lockett, and Marvin Jones.
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I might add Donte Moncrief, as well.

 
SayWhat? said:
This cracks me up, as you basically described the Vikings offense as a whole.  Yes, Peterson is that good.
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Another dumb post.

You're living in the past if you think the Vikings are talent-deficient and were carried by Peterson to the division title last year. Zimmer turned that defense into a top-5 unit very quickly.  The Vikings were 5th in least points allowed in 2015.  On offense they had one of the fewest turnover rates in the NFL and Bridgewater played well above average on an efficiency basis. This is not the Vikings of old. They are a very good team. 

Peterson was helped a lot last year by the tremendous talent surrounding him.

This thread is making me dumber for having to justify such obvious stuff. I'm out.

 
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Phenomena said:
Another dumb post.

You're living in the past if you think the Vikings are talent-deficient and were carried by Peterson to the division title last year. Zimmer turned that defense into a top-5 unit very quickly.  The Vikings were 5th in least points allowed in 2015.  On offense they had one of the fewest turnover rates in the NFL and Bridgewater played well above average on an efficiency basis. This is not the Vikings of old. They are a very good team. 

Peterson was helped a lot last year by the tremendous talent surrounding him.

This thread is making me dumber for having to justify such obvious stuff. I'm out.
Click to expand...
Bye Felecia

 
Phenomena said:
Dumb post. You're comparing apples and oranges.  Look at games when Tate was the lead back and Foster was injured and the numbers would look dramatically different.  Murray will be lucky to finish above RB15, end of story.
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For standard, when Foster was not playing, Tate averaed 12.06 fantasy points per game. His full season would project to 1400 total yards and 9 TDs. Very good, but not Arian Foster great. 

 
Phenomena said:
Another dumb post.

You're living in the past if you think the Vikings are talent-deficient and were carried by Peterson to the division title last year. Zimmer turned that defense into a top-5 unit very quickly.  The Vikings were 5th in least points allowed in 2015.  On offense they had one of the fewest turnover rates in the NFL and Bridgewater played well above average on an efficiency basis. This is not the Vikings of old. They are a very good team. 

Peterson was helped a lot last year by the tremendous talent surrounding him.

This thread is making me dumber for having to justify such obvious stuff. I'm out.
Click to expand...
Well thanks for the reply Nancy.  Here's what I responded to.  What you wrote.

"Sorry, but no. A 31-year old Peterson would not be a top-5 fantasy back on a talent-depleted team with a sophomore QB and bottom rung offensive line play."

Let's dissect that statement just a bit:

  • Peterson was a top 5 fantasy back
  • It's arguable whether or not the Vikings are considered a talent-depleted team, but what I do know is that...
  • They actually did have a sophomore QB last season and...
  • Their offense line play was ungood and...
  • As a whole on offense, they were indeed "talent depleted."  If you don't believe that, let's get your take on what positions they're above average at on offense.   
  • Minnesota was middle of the pack in scoring offense last year, and fourth worst in total yards. 
  • Did I mention, Peterson was a top 5 fantasy back?
So I never stated that Peterson carried them to a divisional title.  But he, without question, carried their offense.  if you think Peterson's production last season, namely his 4.5ypc (1700 total yards and 11TD's), was because he was helped by the "tremendous talent surrounding him" then I'd legitimately question whether you watching a single snap of the Vikings while they were on offense.  Guy just churned out 4.5ypc on a team with a ####ty o-line and a the second worst passing offense in the entire league, a passing offense respected by not a single defense in the league with not a single above average starter at any of the other skill positions. 

Yeah, my post was dumb.   Enjoy your departure from this thread. 

And apologies to all for any derailment of what's an awesome thread.
 
FYI, I'll be calling everyone in this thread as witnesses in my plagiarism lawsuit against Robert Mays. He even stole my ARob/Evans comparison!

(The really funny thing is that Barnwell, who I stole the idea from, is Mays' buddy and former podcast host.)

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
In order to believe this, you either have to believe that Landry isn't really for real, or that the Dolphins' pass offense will be robust enough to support two top-24 fantasy WRs. I can't remember whether it's you or Ninja (or both) who's so down on Landry but, while I've never owned a share of him, I've started to come around on him being a reliable slot guy. And I'll believe the latter with Tannehill under center when I see it. If it means I'm a year too late to the party, oh well, c'est la vie.
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I expect Ryan Tannehill to throw the ball 600 or more times. He may get sacked 45 or more times again which kills drives, but Gase is already emphasizing getting the ball out quicker. 

The offensive line has not been playing well through TC and continues to a concern. As is RT's pocket presence and holding the ball too long. If RT could manage to only be sacked 40 times this year, that would be an improvement. The offensive line hasn't been playing their final five starters together on the 1st team yet. From what I am hearing Tunsil and their second team right guard have played better than the 1st team guards, I bet all guards look bad against Suh, but there is some reason to hope that the offensive line will improve once the final five linemen are decided and they start playing together.

Adam Gase has run some of the fastest pace offenses in the NFL over the past four years or so and brings that philosophy to Miami. I expect an increase in offensive plays to be a result of that. The Dolphins ran 1040 plays in 2014 with Gase I have 1050 offensive plays as what I expect, this could potentially be more if they have a fast start, or as low as 1000 if the team continues to turn over the ball and RT keeps taking sacks. The offensive line and the rest of the offense may not come together until week four or week 6 of the season as it is definitely still a work in progress. I will still take the over on 1050 plays.

I love Jarvis Landry. Great football player. He makes a bad QB look good. He catches everything. He reminds me of a smaller Chris Carter.

I also love Parker all the way back to watching Teddy Bridgewater who Parker made look good in Louisville.

I considered Parker to be the second best WR prospect of the 2015 draft and after Miami drafted him I said I expect Parker to outscore Landry in standard scoring leagues by his second season, which is this year. I still think that may happen this year.

In PPR leagues that is another matter. I think they will be close because Parker should have more yards and TD than Landry this year, but Landry will likely have more total receptions.

Ryan Tannehill has shown tunnel vision for Landry. There were plays where Gase does not even include Landry in the first 3 progressions, yet Tannehill throws it to Landry anyways. Gase asks him, why did you throw it to Landry? RT says he was open.

Early on in camp Gase talks about a similar chemistry developed between Parker and Tannehill who worked together during the offseason. Gase also criticizes this connection as being a bit like street ball. He wants them to run the plays right.

All of this stuff is gone over in the Landry and Parker threads.

For redraft taking Parker in the 5th round is what I would call fair value, I don't think he should be drafted much higher than this until he proves more in the NFL. I am very optimistic about him doing so, but there are reasons why he may not. First of them being the QB.

 
Not that it is a HUGE thing, but what about the increase of teams going for the 2-PT conversion after a TD instead of kicking the PAT?

Couldn't this put a big mixing around of kickers in the rankings?

 
Spike said:
Not that it is a HUGE thing, but what about the increase of teams going for the 2-PT conversion after a TD instead of kicking the PAT?

Couldn't this put a big mixing around of kickers in the rankings?
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Not that you aren't right, I actually agree with you.

I just think if you are worrying about XP's for kickers, you're giving yourself unneeded heartburn. My league penalizes Missed XP's pretty harshly for some stupid reason, so I am hoping I draft Boswell and not have to worry about missed XP's for good.

 
I kind of alluded to this upthread on the discussion of Diggs, but if we're following trends, shouldn't it be "Rookie Vikings WR who will get hot for at least part of the season"?

  • 2013: Patterson
  • 2014: Johnson
  • 2015: Diggs
  • Potential 2016: Treadwell
Everything I'm seeing is that Diggs is the best WR option in Minnesota, but this is the exact same pattern we've seen for the past three years. The guy who did well as a rookie has regressed the following year and someone else took his place. By that logic, the guy to own this year is Treadwell ... or maybe the German dude?

 
Bri said:
Titans rookie wr is a nice midseason waiver wire pickup
Click to expand...
It's been about 10-12 years since adding a Titans WR was a good idea. OK, KB had is moments, Wright in PPR a few years ago.

But I'm intrigued nonetheless. Heck TB is nothing special & the Vikes aren't a passing team, yet Diggs had a nice mud-season run for many of us.

Haven't seen Sharpe yet. Who's a good comp? What are his strengths?

ETA: never mind 

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/743870-tajae-sharpe-wr-titans/?#comment-19175723

 
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The Hank said:
Not that you aren't right, I actually agree with you.

I just think if you are worrying about XP's for kickers, you're giving yourself unneeded heartburn. My league penalizes Missed XP's pretty harshly for some stupid reason, so I am hoping I draft Boswell and not have to worry about missed XP's for good.
Click to expand...
I was thinking if Team X (let's say the Steelers, since they did this a goodly amount of times in 2015) do this a lot in 2016, it could mean 20-40 points in a season which could mean a lot in the overall amount of points a kicker gets, thus wanting to re-think a kicker's points.

 
BobbyLayne said:
It's been about 10-12 years since adding a Titans WR was a good idea. OK, KB had is moments, Wright in PPR a few years ago.

But I'm intrigued nonetheless. Heck TB is nothing special & the Vikes aren't a passing team, yet Diggs had a nice mud-season run for many of us.

Haven't seen Sharpe yet. Who's a good comp? What are his strengths?

ETA: never mind 

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/743870-tajae-sharpe-wr-titans/?#comment-19175723
Click to expand...
Dgb last year midseason

 
One more, although I'm still not sure on the 2016 comp:

Sleeper rookie WR who all the sharps will be just a little early on in terms of fantasy usefulness

  • 2014: John Brown
  • 2015: Tyler Lockett
  • 2016 comp: Tyler Boyd? Sterling Shepard?
The key thing with Brown and Lockett was that they looked good, and had a few decent weeks, but nowhere near regularly enough that you ever felt comfortable starting them, mostly because of competition for targets (plus, in Brown's case, QB play after Palmer got hurt). By that logic, I don't think Shepard applies, because he seems locked into the WR2 role. So maybe Boyd if he can't beat out LaFell? Or maybe Dorsett (even though he's technically not a rookie)?

BTW, you could even go back a few more years and put 2011 Randall Cobb in that group.

 
zftcg said:
One more, although I'm still not sure on the 2016 comp:

Sleeper rookie WR who all the sharps will be just a little early on in terms of fantasy usefulness

  • 2014: John Brown
  • 2015: Tyler Lockett
  • 2016 comp: Tyler Boyd? Sterling Shepard?
The key thing with Brown and Lockett was that they looked good, and had a few decent weeks, but nowhere near regularly enough that you ever felt comfortable starting them, mostly because of competition for targets (plus, in Brown's case, QB play after Palmer got hurt). By that logic, I don't think Shepard applies, because he seems locked into the WR2 role. So maybe Boyd if he can't beat out LaFell? Or maybe Dorsett (even though he's technically not a rookie)?

BTW, you could even go back a few more years and put 2011 Randall Cobb in that group.
Click to expand...
I think it could be M. Thomas.  I don't think he is going to be the target sponge people are making him out to be.  Breese spreads the ball around so much he will get some targets but I doubt he posts the 70 catch season some are projecting.  My guess is he looks like a rookie and goes more like 45/650/4 and many are disappointed in what is a pretty solid season for a rookie WR.

 
abbottjamesr said:
I think it could be M. Thomas.  I don't think he is going to be the target sponge people are making him out to be.  Breese spreads the ball around so much he will get some targets but I doubt he posts the 70 catch season some are projecting.  My guess is he looks like a rookie and goes more like 45/650/4 and many are disappointed in what is a pretty solid season for a rookie WR.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think you nailed it. That's the perfect case where a guy might be talented and destined for greater things, but between Cooks, Snead, Fleener and Ingram there just aren't enough targets to go around, especially to a rookie who's still learning the ropes.

 
Ilov80s said:
The WR position continues to narrow the gap. What this means is that you can almost consider the two positions as equal producers for standard and draft decisions should come down more to roster configuration than anything. This means in a league that starts 2 RBs and 3 WRs, you want to draft WR heavy because it accounts for a much greater % of your weekly points. 
Click to expand...
Great data...and I've seen you point this out in a few threads, which obviously is spot on.

But...does this change for a league that allows you to determine what position accounts for the greater %?  Such as start 2RB-2WR-1Flex?

 
gump said:
Great data...and I've seen you point this out in a few threads, which obviously is spot on.

But...does this change for a league that allows you to determine what position accounts for the greater %?  Such as start 2RB-2WR-1Flex?
Click to expand...
All the analysis here for standard:

I think in that league, it is a tough call. If you think the scoring trends continue, then WR is the position to target. If you think last year was the maximum for WRs and the minimum for RBs, than I think you can just choose more based on how the draft flows and personal preference, but do keep in mind most studies have indicated early WRs are between somewhat and significantly safer. So with that info, I lean WR but am more willing to examine the situation at a micro level. If my debate is between McCoy and Cooks or Evans, I like McCoy because I like his sample size better than Cooks or Evans. If it is Demaryius vs Doug Martin, I go with Demaryius because I prefer his sample size. 

This is  my thought process for leagues that aren't in some way skewed in favor a position. This summer I looked at he first 24 RBs and first 24 WRs taken over the last 5 years. I said a good pick is player that finishes no worse than 6 spots below where they were drafted. So if you drafted the 10th WR, he was a "good pick" if he finished WR1-16. Anything past that and I considered it not a good pick. Essentially it broke down that with either position drafters had a 50% chance of making a "good pick".  So if I am faced with a decision like Mike Evans vs LeSean McCoy where the lineup value is neutral, I look at the players individually. McCoy over the last 3 years has beat Evans in almost every key category: average ppg, highest ppp, lowest ppg, and % of games played. There are no extenuating circumstances to downgrade Shady (like age, injury, new team). So for me, McCoy takes what is likely a 1/2 probability and skews the odds in my favor. Evans is being drafted as WR10 but of the 2 years in the league, he only would have been a "good pick" at WR 10 once. McCoy is going as RB10 which would have been a good pick in 5 of 7 years. 

 
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