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AL Cy Young Race (1 Viewer)

Northern Voice

Footballguy
So, the AL Cy Young chase is crazy this season. Traditional stats and advanced stats put different guys at the top. Fangraphs and Baseball Reference WAR put different guys at the top. ESPN's Cy prediction system puts different guys again. The guys with the best records don't have the most strikeouts or best ERA. The guys with the best ERA haven't/may not pitch full seasons. The guys with lots of strikeouts have ####ty records. Here's my attempt at an overview with 6 weeks to go:

Potential 20 Game Winners:

J.A. Happ 143 IP, 16-3, 2.96 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 126K, 2.8 fWAR

Rick Porcello 158 IP, 16-3, 3.30 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 129K, 2.9 fWAR

Chris Tillman 151 IP, 15-4, 3.46 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 124K, 2.4 fWAR

**With this group, your waiting to see if one of them gets to 20 wins and how much the voters still care about things like that. They all have pretty solid all around numbers, but aside from wins, they aren't among the leaders in every other category. Happ is on the edges of the ERA race but that's another traditional stat, so he's just getting a lot of the same voters there. That said, if one of these guys wins 20+ games with a sub-3 ERA, I think they have a chance at getting a lot of votes.

ERA Leaders

Michael Fulmer 120 IP, 10-3, 2.25 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 103K, 2.6 fWAR

Danny Duffy 132 IP, 10-1, 2.73 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 143K, 3.0 fWAR

Aaron Sanchez 152.1 IP, 12-2, 2.84 ERA, 3.29 FIP, 127K, 3.6 fWAR

**All three of these guys have been dominant this season, probably the 3 most dominant. For the Cy Young, you can't dismiss ERA. The season is over, it's time to vote on what actually happened, rather than what was predicted/expected/should have happened. All three of these guys may be discounted for not having as many starts or innings as a lot of the other candidates (assuming Sanchez misses some starts down the stretch). I used fWAR here because it's an easier site to navigate but bWAR has Fulmer at the very top of its leaderboard (5.1 bWAR). Duffy/Fulmer are first and second in WHIP. Sanchez has the best win % in the league. Baseball-Reference's various other systems (base-out wins/runs saved, adjusted pitching wins/runs put these three consistently at the top.

Strikeout Leaders

Chris Archer  149.2 IP, 6-16 :lmao: , 4.39 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 177 K, 2.2 fWAR

Justin Verlander 167.1 IP, 12-7, 3.44 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 176 K, 3.4 fWAR

David Price 163.2 IP, 10-8 4.29 ERA, 3.49 FIP,  167 K, 3.2 fWAR

**The ERA and win-loss records (and uneven performance) eliminate Archer and Price pretty easily. Verlander should be right in the thick of the race. He could easily lead the league in strikeouts, will be right there in WAR and his traditional W/L and ERA numbers won't be elite but shouldn't disqualify him either.

fWAR Leaders

Corey Kluber 163 IP, 13-8, 3.15 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 163K, 4.3 fWAR

Jose Quintana 157.2 IP, 9-9, 2.85 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 136K, 3.9 fWAR

Chris Sale 160.2 IP, 14-6, 3.30 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 157K, 3.8fWAR

**As expected, fWAR likes the guys who have the best balance of all the numbers - it's crazy that these guys are at the top of this category but none of them are in the top 3 in any other category. There isn't a lot to choose between these guys. Quintana may get punished for having fewer wins an not being dominant in any one category but that's pretty fitting for a guy who is just so consistent.

Please, let's not do this

Zach Britton 50 IP :rolleyes:  2-1, 37/37 SVs, 0.54 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 59K, 1.8 fWAR

He also leads in win probability added. The vote splitting between the starters, the perfect record, the ERA ad the WPA will keep him in the mix. He likely needs the Orioles to make the playoffs on top of staying perfect.

bWAR and ESPN Cy Predictor love him even though he's not top of any categories

Cole Hamels 153.1 IP, 12-4, 2.88 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 149K, 2.3WAR

FIP is Kluber, Duffy, Sanchez. IP is Verlander, Price and Kluber. bWAR has Fulmer, Quintana and Hamels at the top. ESPN's Cy Predictor has the top 5 as Happ, Britton, Porcello, Sanchez and Hamels.

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Sale and Kluber have the best mix of wins, ERA, strikeouts and maybe should be considered the leaders at this time. I would have Sanchez and Verlander (5th and 6th in fWAR) in that mix as well. I'm interested in this obviously because of the Jays in the mix. I don't think Happ will win but he's been very good. I do think Sanchez deserves consideration but again, I'm not sure he'll get the innings (same for Duffy/Fulmer), not sure how many innings is enough. Not sure how much 20 wins still is a factor for a voter. 20 wins and sub-3 ERA particularly. What happens if Fulmer is able to get his ERA under 2 - can you not give it to him? Still a half dozen starts or so left but will be interesting to keep an eye on. Will being on a playoff team/performances down the stretch be a factor here as well? Guys with a low number of losses often seem to get a bump too, i.e. a 17-2 record carries more weight than 18-8.

There's so little to choose from them, so I'm setting the bar at the completely non-arbitrary benchmarks more than 150 IP as of now (180 + pace), 12+ wins (15+ pace), sub-3 ERA and at least 3.5 WAR. Oh shoot, the only guy who fits is Aaron Sanchez ;)   Honestly, I can come up with arguments for 11 of these guys no problem. The only ones I think you can completely eliminate are Archer, Price and Tillman.

 
With all of the starting pitching and many to chose from, that is the kind of situation that could make Britton the winner, especially if he get 50+ saves and is perfect and keeps his ERA where it is.

 
With all of the starting pitching and many to chose from, that is the kind of situation that could make Britton the winner, especially if he get 50+ saves and is perfect and keeps his ERA where it is.
Agreed. As an O's fan, I would love if Britton won it, though it seems unlikely. However, if he ends the season perfect on saves and still has an ERA under 1.00, it will be tough not to give it to him. No one else is really running away with it at the moment.

 
Kluber. Guy is steady as can be and strong as an ox. If his last month and a half is anything like previous seasons, he's going to end the debate in the next few weeks.

 
If it was my vote, I would go with Fulmer or Duffy if either one finishes strong.  But the people who vote will go with Happ if he gets 3 or more wins and keeps his ERA lower than 3.00.  

 
Kluber. Guy is steady as can be and strong as an ox. If his last month and a half is anything like previous seasons, he's going to end the debate in the next few weeks.
If any of these guys go nuts over the next 6 weeks, helping to vault their team to the division title/wildcard then that's the guy.

 
If any of these guys go nuts over the next 6 weeks, helping to vault their team to the division title/wildcard then that's the guy.
Yeah, it's basically how he beat out King Felix a couple years ago when Felix looked like a sure bet in mid-August. Different trajectories down the stretch.

 
Justin Verlander in the conversation, hitters batting just .177 against him since May 1st. :yes:

Kluber is the guy to beat though going into September but it's not over.  

 
Code:
               W      K/9        BB/9      ERA      FIP     fWAR

Kluber         14     9.1        2.25      3.07     3.11    4.5

Hamels         14     8.9        3.25      2.67     3.86    2.7

Verlander      14     9.4        2.29      3.33     3.59    3.9

Sale           15     9.1        1.92      3.14     3.35    4.4
 
that's weird. baseball reference has Hamels at 5.8 WAR, leading all MLB pitchers.

anyone know why they're so different (bwar vs fwar)?

 
Yeah, I think there will be a lot of different starters getting 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th place votes, so there won't be a unanimous/consensus winner but I don't think there will be enough splitting that Britton's boatload of 6th, 7th etc.  votes push him up. Not many are putting him at the their ballot.

 
you know the writers love wins as much as any other stat. good chance Porcello and his 18 wins (currently) and good enough ERA and WHIP numbers get him plenty of votes 

 
you know the writers love wins as much as any other stat. good chance Porcello and his 18 wins (currently) and good enough ERA and WHIP numbers get him plenty of votes 
If he is the only pitcher over 20 wins, he probably will get it.  Of course the number of W's are as much of a function of the 6.26 runs per game support he has been getting, but the bottom line is they win when he pitches. 

 
Kluber. Guy is steady as can be and strong as an ox. If his last month and a half is anything like previous seasons, he's going to end the debate in the next few weeks.
Especially since his K totals aren't that far off from the K leaders in the OP. Klubot is capable of ripping off a 12-13 whiff game almost any night he starts.

 
If he is the only pitcher over 20 wins, he probably will get it.  Of course the number of W's are as much of a function of the 6.26 runs per game support he has been getting, but the bottom line is they win when he pitches. 
True.  If he is the only 20 game winner in the AL, he probably would get it, unless he gets shelled to raise that ERA.

If there isn't a 20 game winner and they are all close, Britton has a shot.

 
Hamels with his second consecutive stinker, didn't even get out of the 2nd inning today.  The FIP ship is starting to right itself. 

 
Britton is every bit as good as any RP that has won in the past and weak competition this year.  

 
not saying I agree, but it's gotta be porcello right now
If he keeps up with what he's been doing the last month, maybe.  His periph's indicate there's been quite a bit of luck fueling this stretch though.  A 224 2nd half BABIP and a 32.7 hard contact % don't exactly add up.

 
Britton is every bit as good as any RP that has won in the past and weak competition this year.  
He is still well behind others in innings pitched.  For instance, Marshall pitched 204 innings and Willie Hernandez pitched 140 innings.  It was not uncommon to come in during the 7th inning to get a save.   The way closers are used today is the reason only two relievers in the last 25 years have won the award and Britton stats could end up on par with those guys.  But you can't really say his performance is comparable with what guys who pitched twice a as many innings did 

 
It's going to be Porcello. Sale/Kluber are both deserving, but voters take wins and team record into account and both are in Rick's favor 

He's got 4 more starts left. Will end up 22/23 wins if I were to guess, that will be plenty to lock it up

 
shadyridr said:
Does Tanaka get any consideration? Man he's been dominant in the second half.
i'm not really a fan of incorporating team performance into individual awards, but voters tend to do that. and when there's not an obvious candidate or two, team performance will come into play even more so than usual.

 
It's going to be Porcello. Sale/Kluber are both deserving, but voters take wins and team record into account and both are in Rick's favor 

He's got 4 more starts left. Will end up 22/23 wins if I were to guess, that will be plenty to lock it up
Pitched great tonight, maybe his best start of the season, and lost.  Red Sux are scoring 7.2 runs a game when he starts, hopefully the voters see that.  He's 4th in the race at best, maybe 5th after Britton. 

 
I think you're letting your history with him bias you a bit...  Guy leads the league in a number of categories besides wins and run support. WHIP is usually the first thing I sort by when thinking of the Cy (he leads the league). 

It's a tight race though, there is not much separation between those 3-5 guys who have a strong case. At that point it just comes down to personal preference. Do you weight the K more? Maybe you weigh IP more? Or consistency, how many times did the pitcher not give you at least 6 or more than 4 ER?

Porcello/Kluber/Sale are the finalists for me. I don't have a hard lean on any of them really. If forced to, I might rank it Kluber/Porcello/Sale, 1a/1b/1c

 
I went backward 3 years. WHIP leader and Cy results

Keuchel (1st)

Hernandez (2nd)

Scherzer (1st)

If Rick continues to pitch as he has, he will be, and deserves, top 3 finish.

 
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I think you're letting your history with him bias you a bit...  Guy leads the league in a number of categories besides wins and run support. WHIP is usually the first thing I sort by when thinking of the Cy (he leads the league). 

It's a tight race though, there is not much separation between those 3-5 guys who have a strong case. At that point it just comes down to personal preference. Do you weight the K more? Maybe you weigh IP more? Or consistency, how many times did the pitcher not give you at least 6 or more than 4 ER?

Porcello/Kluber/Sale are the finalists for me. I don't have a hard lean on any of them really. If forced to, I might rank it Kluber/Porcello/Sale, 1a/1b/1c
You not including Verlander is obnoxious, but you already know that about yourself.  You do obnoxious very well. 

 
You not including Verlander is obnoxious, but you already know that about yourself.  You do obnoxious very well. 
Which one would you put Verlander ahead of? (I'm legitimately asking not trying to ruffle any feathers).
I think only Kluber is ahead of Verlander right now, he compares very well against all of them in every way statistically and better than Porcello.  In the same amount of innings he has 50 more K's, the same XFIP, a much better SIERA, a better OPAvg, a little worse WHIP, and six less wins.  He doesn't average 7.2 runs of runs support, if he did he'd have 20+ wins.  Same for Kluber, Sale, Scherzer, etc.  Porcello has had a great year, he's a tier below Verlander, Sale, and Kuber.  Porcello is Carlos Quintana with eight more wins NTTATWWT. 

 
Am I wrong or is Verlander 16th in xFIP, behind Porcello (Cy Pineda is #1)

Porcello 5th avg (Verander 2), Porcello tops in WHIP (Verlander 3). Porcello 13 in SIERA (Verlabder 9). 

I mean, there's probably a couple dozen different stats and you can slice it and dice it until one guy edges the other out. I said there's 3-5 guys you can make a strong case for, Verlanders one of them but I prefer Sale over him, Porcello over both, and Kluber over the whole lot. Then again, I'm probably biased, just like you with Verlander. There's no right answer here GB, it's an opinion poll. When Shadys asking which guy you put Verlander ahead on its not because he is being obnoxious, it's because there is no clear distinction between those 5 guys, and it's comes down to which stats you favor. 

 
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pandora said:
Britton's 0.83 WHIP looks damn good.
Relievers don't qualify for WHIP/ERA titles. You want impressive? Arrieta's 0.86 in 229 IP last season. Relievers with sub 0.90 WHIPs aren't that rare.

 

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