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Drafting QBs late this year - who are your top targets? (1 Viewer)

rickyg

Footballguy
It seems to me that this year, way more than years past, waiting on a qb is a very good, albeit risky, draft strategy, 

Qb's very important in my league.  Bottom line, it's very rare that someone has a team that is so loaded that they can overcome poor qb output and still win a championship.  I'm not saying it NEVER happens, jut that it's a rare event.  

With that said, the pool of talented qbs is so deep this year that it seems like I'd be a fool to even consider drafting one unit the 7th or 8th round at the very minimum, and possibly waiting until the 10th round or beyond can be a viable strategy.  

Here's what I'm finding in my mocks:

If I want Eli, Brady or bortles I have to think qb in the 7th round.  Otherwise they are gone. 

I think Eli especially is set up for greatness this year.  3rd season in Mcadoo's system.  He's gotten better each year.  Pass friendly offense.  Good receivers. Piss poor defense (they rebuilt the defense but I'm not buying it until I see them shutting teams down).  

It might be worth the 7th round pick for him.  

But what if you miss Eli or decide to pass on him?  

Now you're into that next tier of rivers/romo/Tyrod/stafford etc.  

for me, I love me some stafford this season.  I'm consistently able to grab him beyond the 10th round.  I think people are over him BC he's been wildly inconsistent, he's burned people over the last 3 or 4 seasons, and he lost megaton.  

But megatron hasn't been that dominating wr for a few years now.  2nd half of last year stafford tore up the league in cooters system.  Now he's tearing it up in preseason (which I'm thinking is going to raise his adp by end of August when most drafts are happening). 

I'm liking the rivers/stafford combo.  

I think having both of those guys can give you solid and sometimes spectacular points in your qb position this year while allowing you to load up on Rb/wr and maybe a te in the first 10 rounds.  Which would give you a leg up on depth at those critical positions over your league.  

Im also warming up to taking a flier on rg3 after the 13th round.  He's looking good this preseason and he has weapons in that passing game.  Coleman, Gordon, barnidge, Duke Johnson, and even Terrell Pryor who looks legit.  Shows legs look like they are back under him finally.  I think he could end up in the running for best value pick of 2016 if this translates into a monster regular season for him.

What say you?  Who are your top 1 or 2 late qb targets if you draft qb late?

 
I like Bortles, Rivers, Stafford, and Flacco as my late options. Flacco in particular could be a steal. Tons more weapons than he's had in recent years and they have zero running game.

 
Of all of the strategies in fantasy football I think the "waiting on a qb"  is probably the worst one.  Bite the bullet get a top guy and lock in for the year.   Chasing those massive qb points weekly is a headache and seldom works out.  You can do a rbbc,  you can maybe do a wrbc, but a qbbc just doesn't work. They score too many points on a weekly basis to not have a top guy in your line up.    In. It's leagues/drafts you can use a 2nd and pretty much have your choice of the top tier.    

 
QB is not an important fantasy position in most leagues. I might just wait till the last pick to get one. 

 
Tyrod Taylor , Kirk Cousins, and Stafford.

In that order.  Where i can I'll try to take 2 of those 3.

 
Tyrod Taylor , Kirk Cousins, and Stafford.

In that order.  Where i can I'll try to take 2 of those 3.
Those are the best of the QB2s that are really QB1s. Romo can be had late. RG3 has a beautiful opening stretch of the year if you want to stream.

 
I'm pretty sure I can get Dalton in rd 10, or maybe even later, in both of my local drafts.

He was less than 3 pts per game away from Brady, Brees, Wilson, Bortles.. last season. I understand he doesn't have Jones this yr, but I'm very tempted to just pick off rbs and wrs ( probably at least 1 te) and scoop him up very late

 
Of all of the strategies in fantasy football I think the "waiting on a qb" is probably the worst one. Bite the bullet get a top guy and lock in for the year. Chasing those massive qb points weekly is a headache and seldom works out. You can do a rbbc, you can maybe do a wrbc, but a qbbc just doesn't work. They score too many points on a weekly basis to not have a top guy in your line up. In. It's leagues/drafts you can use a 2nd and pretty much have your choice of the top tier.
In comparison to other positions, the ppg difference between front-end and back-end QB1s is marginal. QB position scarcity is akin to that of kickers. 

 
I'm pretty sure I can get Dalton in rd 10, or maybe even later, in both of my local drafts.

He was less than 3 pts per game away from Brady, Brees, Wilson, Bortles.. last season. I understand he doesn't have Jones this yr, but I'm very tempted to just pick off rbs and wrs ( probably at least 1 te) and scoop him up very late




Yeah i I really can't figure out why he's ranked so low across the board. He lost sanu and jones, but neither of those guys put up big numbers. Was really a committee effort after green. With Boyd impressing in the preseason I'm more comfortable with him

 
I really like Carr and Winston as young guys in emerging offenses that can take a big step forward this year.

I'd add Bortles but he already emerged last year and probably won't come as cheap.

 
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Tyrod Taylor , Kirk Cousins, and Stafford.

In that order.  Where i can I'll try to take 2 of those 3.
I like Cousins as a late qb.  I feel like he can finish top 5 at the end of season and he is being taken 20th or so overall.  They will air it out all day. 

 
Of all of the strategies in fantasy football I think the "waiting on a qb"  is probably the worst one.  Bite the bullet get a top guy and lock in for the year.   Chasing those massive qb points weekly is a headache and seldom works out.  You can do a rbbc,  you can maybe do a wrbc, but a qbbc just doesn't work. They score too many points on a weekly basis to not have a top guy in your line up.    In. It's leagues/drafts you can use a 2nd and pretty much have your choice of the top tier.    
I agree with you. I like waiting until the seventh or eight round to get my qb. That usually gets me a qb1 without worrying about qbbc

 
Yeah i I really can't figure out why he's ranked so low across the board. He lost sanu and jones, but neither of those guys put up big numbers. Was really a committee effort after green. With Boyd impressing in the preseason I'm more comfortable with him
He lost sanu, Jones, and eifert for at least a few weeks.

 
In comparison to other positions, the ppg difference between front-end and back-end QB1s is marginal. QB position scarcity is akin to that of kickers. 
Good or bad, kind of depends on the scoring system on how much of a gap between top/mid/bottom you'll see.

That being said, in redraft, I like the idea of set it and forget it QB1.  Mostly because I'm a good GM, but terrible coach.

Though if it's a best ball league, I'll punt QB all day long.

 
In comparison to other positions, the ppg difference between front-end and back-end QB1s is marginal. QB position scarcity is akin to that of kickers. 
Sort of on the first point and yes to the second.  QB1 last year to qb12 in my main league was 6ppg 28-22 (Newton had a really nice year) while rb1 to rb12 was a difference of 5ppg (18 to 13).  But the positional scarcity is huge with most lineups requiring 2-3 backs and one qb. Add to that knowing you can get qb12 in the 10th while you're probably not getting rb12 there. 

I'm not sure when I'll take qb, just depends on when they become bpa but if looking late I'll gamble on TT, Dalton, and Romo.  Most likely I'll grab one before those become bqba and take Ben or Eli. 

 
In comparison to other positions, the ppg difference between front-end and back-end QB1s is marginal. QB position scarcity is akin to that of kickers. 
There isn't really an argument to be made. It's simple math and economics. I am not sure how any can defend the the set it and forget it QB after last year. Over 40 QBs had at least 1 week as a top 12 QB. Last year's top 5 drafted QBs were Luck, Rogers, Manning, Brees and Ben. Even without the injury, Luck was only QB8 in PPG. Rogers only finished as a top 12QB in 8 weeks last year. There were 6 weeks that he wasn't even a top 24 QB. In 5 of Ben's 12 starts, he wasn't a top 24 QB. In 7 of Brees' 15 games, he was not a top 24 QB. Manning only gave an owner 3 weeks of top 24 QB play. 

On the other hand, it's interesting to see which starting QBs had the highest % of their starts be in the top 12 for the week. 

Brady, Dalton, Palmer, Cam, Ben and Bortles were the only players to be top 12 QBs in >50% of their games played.  Eli, Flacco, Cousins, Wilson, Rodgers, and McCown were all tied exactly at 50%. (note I limited it to players that played in at least 4 games). Here is a reminder of where some of those players were drafted. Dalton- QB21, Palmer QB17, Cam QB14, Eli QB10, Flacco QB18, Cousins QB31,McCown QB33. 

All the numbers and rankings were for a 6pt per TD league for those that argue that makes top QBs more valuable. Unless you find the rare Cam or Brady like player, you are possibly hurting your team by playing the same "set it and forget it" QB every week. 

 
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One of my leagues which is a 6 point passing td league we also has bonuses for tds over 40 yards and bonuses for over 300 yds passing. In that league the top passing big arm QBs go a little earlier than the running Qbs.Qbs with speedster WRs also make difference.

 
Something about 2016 NYG scares me.They look horrible thus far, particularly the O-line..You wonder if McAdoo is in over his head. Still not sold on the defensive aquisitions either..it is early but they look like a 6 win team to me. Tougher division , Redskins look legit. So be careful projecting Eli as a top guy to pick he just never seems to be a great QB for fantasy football.

I'm interested in Osweiler, Bortles, Cousins, Matty Ice ( two years ago he was QB #6 and he's having a great preseason)..I think Bortles moves into that top list of must-have QBs.but I also agree with others in that having an Aaron Rodgers is worth the high draft pick. There's only a small handful of these top QBs..and Id rather play wrbc or rbbc than qbbc..

 
In comparison to other positions, the ppg difference between front-end and back-end QB1s is marginal. QB position scarcity is akin to that of kickers. 
Bingo. The post you replied to mentioned how QBs "score too many points on a weekly basis" which misses the point. It the delta between tiers that dictates value of the position. In the case of QB the difference between the top guys and say #10 is marginal when compared to RB or WR.

I won't be taking a QB at the top of any of my drafts. The amount of pts you pick up doesn't match what you lose at other positions.

 
Here's the thing though:

i get it.  Playing qbbc is not something I'm interested in.  But some of these late qbs (especially stafford IMO) have major potential to be plug and play every week starters for your team.  

Cousins, rg3, Carr, dalton.  All the same.  One or 2 of these guys is going to hit and be a top 10 maybe even top 5 qb this year.  My money is on stafford, who has done it before.  It's actually kind-boggling to me how late he is going in drafts.  

 
Here's the thing though:

i get it.  Playing qbbc is not something I'm interested in.  But some of these late qbs (especially stafford IMO) have major potential to be plug and play every week starters for your team.  

Cousins, rg3, Carr, dalton.  All the same.  One or 2 of these guys is going to hit and be a top 10 maybe even top 5 qb this year.  My money is on stafford, who has done it before.  It's actually kind-boggling to me how late he is going in drafts.  
Why?  He's been extremely error prone and just lost his best wr.  Now you think he's just gonna turn it around and be a top 5 qb?  There's a reason he's going so late.  Most don't believe in him

 
Here's the thing though:

i get it.  Playing qbbc is not something I'm interested in.  But some of these late qbs (especially stafford IMO) have major potential to be plug and play every week starters for your team.  

Cousins, rg3, Carr, dalton.  All the same.  One or 2 of these guys is going to hit and be a top 10 maybe even top 5 qb this year.  My money is on stafford, who has done it before.  It's actually kind-boggling to me how late he is going in drafts.  
Streaming a QB isn't ever the plan. It is a fall back. Take a high upside guy like Cousins, Tygod or RG3 late (not a Matt Ryan or Romo) since they have an unknown upside that is above streaming/replacement. They also could be total busts, but so are most players picked in the double digit rounds. The chances of landing a startable QB at the double digit rounds is better than any other position outside of K or D. If the guy you take is a bust, you can take another shot or two at finding a starter with high upside (remember in many leagues last year guys like Bortles and Dalton weren't drafted). If it doesn't work out, there is always streaming to fall back on. Also, every year there seems to be 1 or 2 drafted QBs that struggle so much early that they might get cut or traded for peanuts only to be high end QBs later in the year. Remember Russell Wilson through the first 9 games of the year was one of the biggest busts of the season. Wilson's season long passing pace after the first 9 games was only 3900 and 18. Stafford was also possibly dropped by teams last year for ending the year red hot. Brees likely had his owners very frustrated through the first half of 2015. 2 years ago teams were dropping Brady mid season, but he ended the year on a hot streak. 

The last 3 years we have seen 5 QBs have seasons where they really differentiated themselves and been worthy of a high fantasy draft picks. Manning, Brees, Luck and Rodgers have each done it once. They were drafted as top 5 QBs in 2014 and 2015. Brees, Brady and Manning were also top 5 QB picks in 2013. So of the 11 times teams spent high picks on those QBs looking for a difference making season, they only got it 4 times. The other QB to do it was Cam. He was QB15 in ADP last year. 

 
Well..last year they said the same thing about the QB I took in the 9th rd....Lost his  #1 WR ...everyone else was ehh...Well that young man grew up to be Cam Newton..

I got Stafford late..12 th rd  ...Romo a few rds earlier 10th..

 
Well..last year they said the same thing about the QB I took in the 9th rd....Lost his  #1 WR ...everyone else was ehh...Well that young man grew up to be Cam Newton..

I got Stafford late..12 th rd  ...Romo a few rds earlier 10th..
My only problem with Romo is we have such a big sample size on him that we can be very confident that there is no way he can finish above the rather indistinguishable mess of QBs that is about QB8-QB18. At least Stafford could due to the high volume of passes he is likely to throw. 

 
Why? Ground and pound offense with absolutely horrible receivers


Posted in the Otis thread, but covers my thoughts...

I've been puzzled at the lack of love for Mariota this year.

1) If we try and breakdown and define the term 'Exotic Smashmouth'...my guess is that Murray/Henry are the 'Smashmouth' component and Mariota is the 'Exotic' component.  IMO,  waaaayyyyyy too many people seem to be placing too much emphasis on the smashmouth component of whatever this means.  Mariota is still a player the Titans spent the 2nd overall pick on and who that team is going to revolve around.  

2) Mariota's rookie year was a revelation.  Think about the strides he needed to make from college to the pros and then project his numbers over a 16 game season if he didn't suffer injuries.

4052 passing yards, 426 YFS, 27-28 passing TD's, 4 rushing/receiving TD's.

As to,your point about his WR's...they are improved with the addition of Matthews and he has a very underrated TE in Delanie.

 
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Yes Romo is a gamble...that is for sure..I feel better about Stafford.
Romo is only a "gamble" in 2QB formats or MFL10s or similar draft-and-done leagues. In 95% of leagues, there are plenty of starting QBs available on the WW.

If you draft Romo, get an Alex Smith or Bridgewater type as a backup ... someone who might not set the world on fire, but is certain not to lose their job during the season ... so you won't be caught out if Romo goes down. Then if the worst comes to pass, you can plug that low-ceiling guy in while you go hunting for a high-upside backup or spot starter on the WW.

There is such a giant tier of middling QBs available this season that I'm sorely tempted to wait until literally the last two rounds of my draft in my 10- and 12-team 1-QB leagues and just grab the best names left on the draft board at the tail end. My guess is whatever two names I draw out of the hat that particular night won't perform any worse on average than the 9th- through 14th-round QBs do, and I'll have spent those picks building bench depth at other positions.

 
Unless crazy qb value shows in the 8th round or so, and it never does, I'm waiting.  At least half my league continues to get qbs far too early

 
Romo is only a "gamble" in 2QB formats or MFL10s or similar draft-and-done leagues. In 95% of leagues, there are plenty of starting QBs available on the WW.

If you draft Romo, get an Alex Smith or Bridgewater type as a backup ... someone who might not set the world on fire, but is certain not to lose their job during the season ... so you won't be caught out if Romo goes down. Then if the worst comes to pass, you can plug that low-ceiling guy in while you go hunting for a high-upside backup or spot starter on the WW.

There is such a giant tier of middling QBs available this season that I'm sorely tempted to wait until literally the last two rounds of my draft in my 10- and 12-team 1-QB leagues and just grab the best names left on the draft board at the tail end. My guess is whatever two names I draw out of the hat that particular night won't perform any worse on average than the 9th- through 14th-round QBs do, and I'll have spent those picks building bench depth at other positions.
Take RG3. They start with Eagles, Ravens, Fins, Skins . I would not be surprised if RG3 is a top 8 QB at that point. However, be ready to have a new QB in place as his schedule gets a little trickier after that. There are still great match-ups with the Titans, Giants, Cowboys, Steelers remaining. However, there are games with the Bengals, Pats that are must-sits. 

 
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Dalton and Cousins have a really nice SoS if you want to wait, but don't have the stomach for streaming or waiting too late. If you paired Dalton and Cousins,  I really don't see a week where they both faced a difficult defense. Obviously, this will change as the year goes and some defenses prove to be better and worse than expected, but the Browns and Bengals have lots of games agains the NFC East, AFC North. 7 of the bottom 12 QB pass defenses last year were in those divisions. 

Note- I saw they have the same bye. That's not ideal, but I still like the rest of the schedule. 

 
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Late QB's I like: Mariota and Carr. Griffin, if I get sniped on those two.
Just an FYI that Carr isn't going all that late (relative to MM and RG3.) Carr's ADP is 9th round as QB12 where MM is 13th round QB20 and RG3 is 14th round QB23.

 
Had a 10 team draft yesterday, only 6 bench spots. I grabbed Cousins in the 13th and was extremely pleased. That said, Eli, Stafford, and Tyrod all went undrafted. This league is very unusual and we drafted early but still, Eli undrafted is not acceptable.

 
Had a 10 team draft yesterday, only 6 bench spots. I grabbed Cousins in the 13th and was extremely pleased. That said, Eli, Stafford, and Tyrod all went undrafted. This league is very unusual and we drafted early but still, Eli undrafted is not acceptable.
10 team single QB league that drafts this early means a smart owner won't draft a QB IMO. That spot taken up by a QB could be someone like Spencer Ware, Jerrick Mckinnon, James Starks, Tim Hightower, etc.  Those are the kind of players that go from end of bench/waiver wire fodder to instant fantasy starters with one injury. All it would take is some kind of setback with Charles' knee or for Ingram to tear a hamstring in preseason week 3 and now we are talking about Ware or Hightower as mid round picks and guys are throwing giant bids on them. All while Eli, Tyrod and Stafford are available for free. 

 
I agree with you for the most part. At least 3 or 4 of these guys had gone and drafted 2 QBs by the end so with only 15 rounds, I thought grabbing Cousins for the upside of his early schedule was important before the draft ended. Side note, if you're  drafying this early and a bunch of people reach on dst and kicker, don't bother to pick either in the draft. If you're going to stream anyway, why nail it down this early.

 
Why? Ground and pound offense with absolutely horrible receivers
That's what people likely have been saying about RW as he ha finished as QB3, QB5, QB8 and QB9 over his career.  The running QB can make up for production lost in passing volume. In 2014, Wilson was QB4 despite only 3500 and 20 passing. 

 
I absolutely love Dalton this year, but I literally don't believe where I'm seeing him go in mocks. I know I'll probably have to reach a round or two if I want to get him.

I see Winston making a Bortles-esque leap this year.

If I got either of those two, I'd be excited. If I got Taylor, Stafford or Carr I'd be happy. After that I'd probably target Mariota, Tannehill and RG3, but I'd view those as pure fliers, and would be thinking of streaming right out of the gate. I want no part of Cousins unless I can get him super late.

 

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