Full disclosure up front - I am a life long Bengals fan.
Ok, so one of the most consistent trends in fantasy rankings has always been the preference towards placing a high value on recent performance. If a player did well last year, they are ranked high the following year unless they are an old player, or they suffered a significant injury (knee) that will require a long recovery.
For some reason a large part of the fantasy football world has been able to totally ignore recency bias when it comes to Andy Dalton. Dalton was 5th ranked fantasy QB after 13 weeks before being injured early the 14th week. That's 3/4 of the whole season and the entire regular fantasy season he was #5 QB performer.
Now he is consistently ranked as a mid grade QB2 at best, with six of the footballguys rankers saying he will do significantly worse than his rookie year (ranked 19, 19, 19, 19, 24, 24) when he finished 16th overall... a year when he had only Green to throw to, a new OC and every bit as many new challenges as he does now, ... plus he was a rookie. Two guys think he ranks 24!!! Think about that... a year after he finished 5th, two footballguys experts currently think he is one spot away from being best left on the waiver wire. He has never finished worse that 18th overall in his entire career.
I get that he lost two of his top five targets and Eifert may be missing at the start of the season, not to mention his OC, but that simply does not explain the massive drop. Green is still there, his O-line is still there (and probably better) Eifert will only miss a couple of games and his two RBs are back and neither are approaching age limitations... and its not like its a new unfamiliar system with Hue Jackson gone... the QB coach replaced him.
Here's the test to prove my point... can you name another player that finished in the top half of the fantasy starters at his position, was not old, seriously injured or traded, and then dropped down to a mid-range back up in the rankings before the following season? (In a twelve team two RB/WR league that would be a top 12 RB/WR one year dropping to 36th or below in the preseason rankings the following year despite no relevant injury or age limitations.)
Anyone?
Ok, so one of the most consistent trends in fantasy rankings has always been the preference towards placing a high value on recent performance. If a player did well last year, they are ranked high the following year unless they are an old player, or they suffered a significant injury (knee) that will require a long recovery.
For some reason a large part of the fantasy football world has been able to totally ignore recency bias when it comes to Andy Dalton. Dalton was 5th ranked fantasy QB after 13 weeks before being injured early the 14th week. That's 3/4 of the whole season and the entire regular fantasy season he was #5 QB performer.
Now he is consistently ranked as a mid grade QB2 at best, with six of the footballguys rankers saying he will do significantly worse than his rookie year (ranked 19, 19, 19, 19, 24, 24) when he finished 16th overall... a year when he had only Green to throw to, a new OC and every bit as many new challenges as he does now, ... plus he was a rookie. Two guys think he ranks 24!!! Think about that... a year after he finished 5th, two footballguys experts currently think he is one spot away from being best left on the waiver wire. He has never finished worse that 18th overall in his entire career.
I get that he lost two of his top five targets and Eifert may be missing at the start of the season, not to mention his OC, but that simply does not explain the massive drop. Green is still there, his O-line is still there (and probably better) Eifert will only miss a couple of games and his two RBs are back and neither are approaching age limitations... and its not like its a new unfamiliar system with Hue Jackson gone... the QB coach replaced him.
Here's the test to prove my point... can you name another player that finished in the top half of the fantasy starters at his position, was not old, seriously injured or traded, and then dropped down to a mid-range back up in the rankings before the following season? (In a twelve team two RB/WR league that would be a top 12 RB/WR one year dropping to 36th or below in the preseason rankings the following year despite no relevant injury or age limitations.)
Anyone?