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Andy Dalton and the Anti-Recency Movement (1 Viewer)

Brisco54

Footballguy
Full disclosure up front - I am a life long Bengals fan.

Ok, so one of the most consistent trends in fantasy rankings has always been the preference towards placing a high value on recent performance.  If a player did well last year, they are ranked high the following year unless they are an old player, or they suffered a significant injury (knee) that will require a long recovery.

For some reason a large part of the fantasy football world has been able to totally ignore recency bias when it comes to Andy Dalton.  Dalton was 5th ranked fantasy QB after 13 weeks before being injured early the 14th week.  That's 3/4 of the whole season and the entire regular fantasy season he was #5 QB performer. 

Now he is consistently ranked as a mid grade QB2 at best, with six of the footballguys rankers saying he will do significantly worse than his rookie year (ranked 19, 19, 19, 19, 24, 24) when he finished 16th overall... a year when he had only Green to throw to, a new OC and every bit as many new challenges as he does now, ... plus he was a rookie.  Two guys think he ranks 24!!!  Think about that... a year after he finished 5th, two footballguys experts currently think he is one spot away from being best left on the waiver wire.  He has never finished worse that 18th overall in his entire career.

I get that he lost two of his top five targets and Eifert may be missing at the start of the season, not to mention his OC, but that simply does not explain the massive drop.  Green is still there, his O-line is still there (and probably better)  Eifert will only miss a couple of games and his two RBs are back and neither are approaching age limitations... and its not like its a new unfamiliar system with Hue Jackson gone... the QB coach replaced him.

Here's the test to prove my point... can you name another player that finished in the top half of the fantasy starters at his position, was not old, seriously injured or traded, and then dropped down to a mid-range back up in the rankings before the following season?  (In a twelve team two RB/WR league that would be a top 12 RB/WR one year dropping to 36th or below in the preseason rankings the following year despite no relevant injury or age limitations.)

Anyone? 

 
Woodhead seems the closest comp but he has only dropped to 30th AND he is about to hit the cliff for RBs at 31.

 
I think murray dropped quite a bit the year after he was #1 on dallas, as his situation changed with phi

i liked dalton a lot last year, and he helped me to the playoffs, I thought m jones and sanu were huge factors as was a healthy eifert and his stud wr a green, with the explosive bernard, and hue jackson, was a great setup.  This year, no sanu, no jones, no hue jackson a dinged up eifert.  I guess it depends on boyd and if lafell has anything left, but if he couldnt get it done with brady, im not wure how great he will be here.  I think cinn will run more, and am inching hill up in my rankings even though i was burned by him last year, i like his situation better and i think hue was getting on his nerves.   Just my 2 cents why i dropped him out of my top 14

 
Not exactly addressing your point but I think those rankings reflect how they project his rankings week to week, rather than a season-long forecast. Subtle difference but could explain some of that gap, which OP did a fine job addressing

 
There are many instances of this occurring each season. Especially at the QB position.

Many folks will use a linear regression model that is based on last years stats as a basis for their projections. Of course the problem with doing this is that the projections become based too much on the previous years stats.

I prefer to use the last 3 seasons as a basis for projections, because this eliminates small sample sizes and I think gets closer to a realistic projection, although this is not always possible, and often times is inconvenient, because this process takes a bit longer.

I have not tried to compare the two methods to determine which one is actually more accurate.

From baselines I then do a team projection, which causes some of the players values to change within that framework of expected plays.

As there are many QB performing at very similar levels, having a QB ranked 16th may not be very different in terms of total points scored than QB 9 or 10 and this difference may not be that great between QB 10 and QB 20.

The Bengals did lose some WR and they may be without a fully healthy Eifert for an unknown number of games.

The last time the Bengals had a lot of injuries to their skill players, Jeremy Hill got the ball quite a bit more on a per game basis. Perhaps some of these folks are projecting for more rushing attempts than last season, which would diminish Dalton's passing attempts.

While there is certainly some bias against the Red Rifle, I find myself doubting him as well, however there are other reasons besides this why people may have Dalton projected the way they do. They may just have higher projections for other QB being higher than Dalton while expecting similar numbers for Dalton as last season.

While Dalton was extremely efficient last season, this was also on low volume, which would not be expected to be sustainable, if one were taking into account other seasons besides 2015 as a basis for these numbers, which is kind of what I hear you protesting against, while at the same time making the argument that last years stats were great, which they were.

Andy Dalton

2013 26 CIN QB 14 16 16 11-5-0 363 586 61.9 4293 33 5.6 20 3.4 82 7.3 6.9 11.8 268.3 88.8 56.81 29 182 6.68 6.29 4.7 0 3 14
2014* 27 CIN QB 14 16 16 10-5-1 309 481 64.2 3398 19 4.0 17 3.5 81 7.1 6.3 11.0 212.4 83.5 53.94 21 124 6.52 5.75 4.2 4 3 11
2015 28 CIN QB 14 13 13 10-3-0 255 386 66.1 3250 25 6.5 7 1.8 80 8.4 8.9 12.7 250.0 106.2 73.11 20 118 7.71 8.17 4.9 3 3 13


As you can see Daltons completion percentage went up, his TD % went up his INT % went way down, his yards/attempt went up a full yard and passing yards per game was only 18 yards less than in 2013 when Dalton threw the ball 200 more times. QB rating went up corresponding with these improvements.

If I use a 3 year average (pro rating the 3 missing games in 2015) I get 514 passing attempts 329 completions 63.9% completion rate 26 TD 15 INT 7.6 Y/A 11.8 Y/C 3906-3882 yards 23 sacks for - 139 yards = 3743 passing yards by the Y/C or 3767 passing yards by the Y/A. Dalton has run about 60 times per season the last 3 years for not much yardage but an average of about 150 yards and 3 TD.

While these numbers are not bad, they likely are not much higher than QB 16 to 20 depending on what all of the other QB are projected for.

Dalton did finish as QB 5 in 2013 when he had 586 attempts. His efficiency numbers were much worse, but the volume led to more TD and yards. I think he would need similar volume for folks to project him as a top 10 QB, as there are many QB who will throw the ball around 600 times, while Dalton is likely only projected to throw around 500 times, unless the Bengals pass the ball more in 2016.

Certainly possible he does, but the lack of weapons seems like a good reason to doubt that, and perhaps reason to think they might run the ball a bit more.

 
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They are going off Dalton's history. He seems to go good fantasy year, bad fantasy. He also seems to have bad fantasy years when he has limited weapons like he does this year. Look back before last year.

2014 - PPG Dalton ranked in the 20's depending on your scoring system and if you want to count guys that didn't play, but a few games.. Look at his weapons that year. Gio missed 3 games, Marvin Jones missed the entire year, Green missed 3 games and Eifert basically missed the whole year and Gresham isn't good.

2013 - PPG Dalton ranked 5th. Gio was awesome as a rookie and gave him a great weapon out of the backfield, Green healthy all year and had a monster year, Jones was healthy and chipped in 10 touchdowns, and if you combine Eifert and Gresham they chipped in 900 yards and 6 touchdowns.

2012 - PPG Dalton ranked 14th. He didn't really have a weapon out of the backfield with Green-Ellis, Green had a great year, but after that nobody did anything Gresham had an okay year.

2011 - Not going to count since he was a rookie.

Dalton is an average NFL quarterback, if you surrounding him with great talent he will produce, and when I say surround I mean every where, not just one great receiver he needs 3 legit targets and a running game. Plus he has a history of running hot and cold and it seems to go year to year. The experts just went back further than you, you went 1 year, they went a career. Dalton isn't going to make receivers better, he depends on on them the same way Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford, and guys like that do.

 
I can't disagree with the quantitative analysis by @Biabreakable and @msudaisy26, but I also can't help wondering if the fact that Dalton is kind of dorky looking and always chokes in the playoffs causes people to discount him because he just doesn't come across like a stud QB.

 
So there is a couple of areas of production for Dalton that at least for me, have me not buying in whole-heartedly

1) With the exception of the 2013 season, the Bengals have kept his attempts...'controlled'.  No more than 33/game.  In 2013 when he topped out at 586 attempts, he also threw 20 INT's (albeit 33 TD's).

2) The 8.42 YPA.  His yardage number did not stand out as a negative in his 2015 production because of that 8.42 figure.  But 8.42 didn't make his yardage stick out amongst his peers.  So you're forced to choose between the 8.42 number being the outlier or a true 'leap'.

...I do think Dalton has made BIG strides.  But from an FF perspective, the 2015 combination of his low volume/high efficiency makes it feel like QB5-6 is his absolute ceiling.  And as such, the differentiation between him and other QB's feels minimal.  

 
I get that he lost two of his top five targets and Eifert may be missing at the start of the season, not to mention his OC, but that simply does not explain the massive drop.  Green is still there, his O-line is still there (and probably better)  Eifert will only miss a couple of games and his two RBs are back and neither are approaching age limitations... and its not like its a new unfamiliar system with Hue Jackson gone... the QB coach replaced him.
He lost 2 of his top 5 targets, his OC, and Eifert is still injured.  We are drafting based upon what we think will happen, not what has happened in the past.  Also, his ranking has a lot to do with the increased talent at the QB position.  I think Dalton makes a very strong backup, but I think he'll be just outside the top 15.

 
...I do think Dalton has made BIG strides.  But from an FF perspective, the 2015 combination of his low volume/high efficiency makes it feel like QB5-6 is his absolute ceiling.  And as such, the differentiation between him and other QB's feels minimal.  
But isn't that the idea? No one's saying, "He was QB5 last year! Draft him before Brees!" But if you're waiting on QBs, how is he not at the top of that tier with Stafford, Taylor, Cousins, Carr, etc.? He's far more proven than those guys. My ideal is to get him in the 8th-10th and pair him with a high upside guy like Winston.

 
The loss of weapons is concerning, however I do think he will finish right outside the top 12 this year. My main reason for it, is i dont think he will have to do as much. I think they will focus more on the run game with a better offensive line and better defense (they only lost 1 starter from last year from a very good defense). I see Dalton right below the likes of Rivers and Eli. I trust Dalton a lot more than Cousins, Staffod, Romo, Winston, and Carr. Daltons running ability is a really underrated skill set as well. 

He is one of my top value QB's out there with Fitzy and RG3 as even deeper value plays. 

 
I never considered Jones and Sanu to be weapons in their own right.  They are easily replaced in this offense.  AJ Green makes the other receivers on the field into weapons.

Very good offensive line, marquee #1 WR, solid talent/depth at RB and a quality QB.  What's not to love?

 
You pay the price for the QBs with true top 5 ceilings though. Outside of guys like Newton, Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Wilson and Big Ben how many other QBs truly have better than a QB5/6 ceiling?
Exactly. If you're waiting on QBs, Dalton seems to have the most upside of anyone in his tier.

I'm telling you, it's the hair!  :P

 
Why does a guy with a career best of 4200/33 in FIVE YEARS as a starter and is playing on a team who's offensive situation has been downgraded have more upside than a guy who just put up 4000/32 in his FIRST YEAR as a starter and is playing with an up and coming WR, or more upside than a guy who just put up 4200/29 in his first year as a starter and has added a new young WR and who's team make-up has potentially shifted much more towards the pass, or more upside than a guy that just put up good passing numbers in his first year as a starter while also being a major threat on the ground (which is a huge deal for QBs)?

I agree that Dalton is generally underrated, and QB24 is way too low.  But someone ranking him QB24 doesn't literally mean they think he'll finish as QB24.  Most people looking at QBs in that tier are looking at upside guys who could potentially be perennial top 3ish guys.  QBs like Jameis, Carr, Tyrod (because of his running) have that potential.  With Dalton, we've basically seen what he brings and I think we basically know what the best we're going to get out of him is.  I think a lot of people think it's likely we won't get that best out of him this year either with his team only downgrading the passing attack around him.

It's not even like Dalton's 5 years of being the starter provide him with much of a higher floor either, as we recently just two years ago saw him put together a miserable, useless fantasy season.  When people are picking a QB late they're either looking for a starter with a high floor (someone like Eli), or a backup with a high ceiling.  Dalton doesn't really provide either of those.  He'll probably settle in somewhere in the "pretty good" range with still a risk of being abysmal and little likelihood of being the next 5000/40 guy.

 
But isn't that the idea? No one's saying, "He was QB5 last year! Draft him before Brees!" But if you're waiting on QBs, how is he not at the top of that tier with Stafford, Taylor, Cousins, Carr, etc.? He's far more proven than those guys. My ideal is to get him in the 8th-10th and pair him with a high upside guy like Winston.
So let's look at the QB's you mentioned.

Stafford - has a 5000 yard and 40 TD season on his resume.  He was downright scary productive once they made the OC switch.  He's a former #1 overall pick and even though he was drafted eons ago - physical talent/pedigree still weigh in a lot of areas of player consideration.  The running game consists of Abdullah, Ridley, Riddick, so high volume potential exists.

Taylor - passing yards are low to be sure.  But 550-700 rushing yards means high floor and if I'm guessing, a lot of people likely hedging on a 10% increase (at least in pass attempts/game) mean that he could bump himself into the high 3000's on passing yards.  High YPA in 2015 though may not be repeatable...

Cousins - Was downright epic during the seasons 2nd half (final 10 games really).  He could go in the direction of Nick Foles as well...but those final 10 games were QB1 overall territory.  Is he 'THAT' guy...TBD, I'd even err on the side of no.  But if we're talking about absolute ceilings, Cousins has at least shown his is higher than Dalton.  And it's far to also say 'look what he did when he was given the team'

Carr - He gets the 'look what he did Year 2' label in addition to having a WR in Amari Cooper who some feel can raise his game a notch or two. A lot of people also jumping on the OAK bandwagon. 

I don't think anything is wrong with your thought process...but I also wouldn't fault someone for having Dalton 5th on this list.  In terms of proven, his 2015 could be as easily positioned as an aberration as any of the guys above.

 
So let's look at the QB's you mentioned.

Stafford - has a 5000 yard and 40 TD season on his resume.  He was downright scary productive once they made the OC switch.  He's a former #1 overall pick and even though he was drafted eons ago - physical talent/pedigree still weigh in a lot of areas of player consideration.  The running game consists of Abdullah, Ridley, Riddick, so high volume potential exists.

Taylor - passing yards are low to be sure.  But 550-700 rushing yards means high floor and if I'm guessing, a lot of people likely hedging on a 10% increase (at least in pass attempts/game) mean that he could bump himself into the high 3000's on passing yards.  High YPA in 2015 though may not be repeatable...

Cousins - Was downright epic during the seasons 2nd half (final 10 games really).  He could go in the direction of Nick Foles as well...but those final 10 games were QB1 overall territory.  Is he 'THAT' guy...TBD, I'd even err on the side of no.  But if we're talking about absolute ceilings, Cousins has at least shown his is higher than Dalton.  And it's far to also say 'look what he did when he was given the team'

Carr - He gets the 'look what he did Year 2' label in addition to having a WR in Amari Cooper who some feel can raise his game a notch or two. A lot of people also jumping on the OAK bandwagon. 

I don't think anything is wrong with your thought process...but I also wouldn't fault someone for having Dalton 5th on this list.  In terms of proven, his 2015 could be as easily positioned as an aberration as any of the guys above.
Not really.  He did just as well in 2013 and his 2012 wasn't far off that pace.  I can see the argument for Stafford but, unlike Dalton, he unquestionably lost his best weapon this offseason and his offensive line still looks to be a work in progress, at best.  Those other guys could all easily turn out to be one-year-wonders.

Dalton has also quietly run for 7 TDs the last two seasons (4 & 3) and has 14 in five seasons (13 in the last 4 seasons).  Stafford has 12 in 5 seasons and 5 over the last 3.

 
TheDirtyWord said:
So let's look at the QB's you mentioned.

Stafford - has a 5000 yard and 40 TD season on his resume.  He was downright scary productive once they made the OC switch.  He's a former #1 overall pick and even though he was drafted eons ago - physical talent/pedigree still weigh in a lot of areas of player consideration.  The running game consists of Abdullah, Ridley, Riddick, so high volume potential exists.

Taylor - passing yards are low to be sure.  But 550-700 rushing yards means high floor and if I'm guessing, a lot of people likely hedging on a 10% increase (at least in pass attempts/game) mean that he could bump himself into the high 3000's on passing yards.  High YPA in 2015 though may not be repeatable...

Cousins - Was downright epic during the seasons 2nd half (final 10 games really).  He could go in the direction of Nick Foles as well...but those final 10 games were QB1 overall territory.  Is he 'THAT' guy...TBD, I'd even err on the side of no.  But if we're talking about absolute ceilings, Cousins has at least shown his is higher than Dalton.  And it's far to also say 'look what he did when he was given the team'

Carr - He gets the 'look what he did Year 2' label in addition to having a WR in Amari Cooper who some feel can raise his game a notch or two. A lot of people also jumping on the OAK bandwagon. 

I don't think anything is wrong with your thought process...but I also wouldn't fault someone for having Dalton 5th on this list.  In terms of proven, his 2015 could be as easily positioned as an aberration as any of the guys above.


Chaka said:
Not really.  He did just as well in 2013 and his 2012 wasn't far off that pace.  I can see the argument for Stafford but, unlike Dalton, he unquestionably lost his best weapon this offseason and his offensive line still looks to be a work in progress, at best.  Those other guys could all easily turn out to be one-year-wonders.

Dalton has also quietly run for 7 TDs the last two seasons (4 & 3) and has 14 in five seasons (13 in the last 4 seasons).  Stafford has 12 in 5 seasons and 5 over the last 3.
Stafford is an excellent comp for my argument.  He finished 11th last year, lost his top target that was elite, lost his WR3 and switched out his RBs... and all this disruption caused him to drop from 11th (performance) to 14th (current preseason rank.

Stafford's fantasy QB ranks have been 25th, 41st, 5th, 10th, 6th, and 11th

Dalton's have been 16th, 12th, 4th, 18th, and 5th.  The 16th ranking was as a rookie, so one season out of four he did not rate as a QB1 in a 12 team league, but now the consensus is that he is not even a top backup.  I get that some of you want to go for upside, but this guy has top five finishes two of the last three years.  How does he have less upside than the slightly younger players mentioned?

BTW... that 2014 that everyone refers to? He lost his top target for 3 games, and his number two (Jones) and his number three (Eifert) targets for all sixteen games and had to adjust to a new (unfamiliar) OC running an entirely new offensive system... and he still finished 18th... yet somehow people think he is now 24th for losing his #2 and his #5 targets and having a new (very familiar) OC that will be running the same system (plus, the loses of Jones and Sanu were planned for this time.. they were not training camp and game one surprises like last time with Jones and Eifert.)?    

I just don't see it.

Someone above mentioned that this huge drop from top end performer to low preseason ranking has happened lots of times, especially to QBs but failed to give an example.

Again, question for the board... can you name a single player that performed at the elite level for a fantasy season but then was dropped to the rank of a mediocre backup in the preseason ranks the following year that was not based on age, injury, or trade (or suspension/benching of course)?

 
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Maybe you should stop banging the drum for this guy and hope to keep his ADP low.

Who cares what everyone else thinks?  Use it to your advantage.

 
Much more concerned with the loss of Hue Jackson than Jones/Sanu.  The latter were just another guys
Brandon Lafell and Tate aren't even "another guys".  They have plenty of other ways to win with that D than to force stats on crap WRs.  Hopefully Boyd is ready day1 and that would help. 

I think Jones was better than you think and I'm also factoring in Eifert (top red zone weapon) being MIA for however long. 

I love Dalton. He's an underrated NFL qb. Give me someone else this year for fantasy purposes.  They don't have the roster to air it out and frankly they don't need to. 

 
How does he have less upside than the slightly younger players mentioned?
This has already been covered multiple times.

Which has more upside...

A 29 year old QB who has reached 4000/30 once in five seasons (3 years ago) and recently lost his OC, #2 target, #4 target, and who's #3 target is going to miss time.

or...

A 25 year old QB who has reached 4000/30 once in two seasons (this past year) and has one of the best up and coming WRs in the game growing up with him

 
BTW... that 2014 that everyone refers to? He lost his top target for 3 games, and his number two (Jones) and his number three (Eifert) targets for all sixteen games and had to adjust to a new (unfamiliar) OC running an entirely new offensive system... and he still finished 18th... yet somehow people think he is now 24th for losing his #2 and his #5 targets and having a new (very familiar) OC that will be running the same system (plus, the loses of Jones and Sanu were planned for this time.. they were not training camp and game one surprises like last time with Jones and Eifert.)?    
It's like you're not even reading the thread.  Are you looking to actually have a discussion about this or just looking to complain.

Rankings != Projections

 
FWIW, in recent mocks I've been doing he seems to be going earlier. I like Dalton, but my interest in him was always more about value than anything else. No way I would reach for him.

 
Currently ranked QB 16 on the Aug 15th MFL ADP data (12 team, redraft, no-mocks, all players selected in 10% of drafts).

 
...

And if three people do it? Can you imagine three people walking in, drafting Andy Dalton as the 24th QB and walking out?
They may think it's an Organization.

And can you imagine fifty people a day? I said FIFTY people a day, walking in, drafting Andy Dalton as the 24th QB and walking out?
Friends, they may think it's a MOVEMENT, and that's what it is: THE ANDY DALTON ANTI-RECENCY MASSACREE MOVEMENT!

And all you gotta do to join is to draft him the next time he comes around in your draft.

You can get all the Dalton you want, drafted as late as Jason Avant.
You can get all the Dalton you want, drafted as late as Jason Avant.
Keep his draft card waiting in your back pocket,
Then in the 16th round take the Red Rocket!
You can get all the Dalton you want... drafted late as Jason Avant.

Drafted as late... as Jason Avant!

(Apologies, Arlo Guthrie)

 
A 29 year old QB who has reached 4000/30 once in five seasons (3 years ago) and recently lost his OC, #2 target, #4 target, and who's #3 target is going to miss time.
I understand your general point, but I've seen the bolded list a few times now. I'm not sure that Dalton's QB coach taking over as OC is such a bad thing for him. People seem to think Hue Jackson is some kind of miracle worker (and I like the guy) but Dalton's best season was under Jay Gruden. Jackson relied a lot more heavily on the running game, if anything I'd think the former QB coach would lean more towards the passing game.

 
This has already been covered multiple times.

Which has more upside...

A 29 year old QB who has reached 4000/30 once in five seasons (3 years ago) and recently lost his OC, #2 target, #4 target, and who's #3 target is going to miss time.

or...

A 25 year old QB who has reached 4000/30 once in two seasons (this past year) and has one of the best up and coming WRs in the game growing up with him
First, you are comparing a 25 year old to a 29 year old and implying that the 25 year old has the age advantage... while they may be true for every other position in fantasy, I challenge you to prove that for the fantasy QB.  Of the seven QBs currently ranked in the top 12 for fantasy that have reached the age of 29 (Rodgers, Brees, Ben, Brady, Rivers, Manning, & Palmer) not a single one of them was better for fantasy at 25 then they were after 29.  We are talking redraft here, so only this season matters, so history shows that to be 29 is an advantage over being 25 for fantasy QBs.

Next, let's look at your arbitrary stat of 4000 yards and 30 TDs.  You complain that Dalton has not reached this arbitrary line in his first five seasons.  Of those seven current top QBs only three ever reached that threshold in their first five fantasy seasons (Rodgers & Rivers) and Rodgers was in his 4th season and Rivers was in his 5th. 

Andy Dalton did it in his 3rd NFL season.  That's earlier than every other top QB over 29... and his total yards were close to 4500  with 35 total TDs

Some argued for Tyrod Taylor (who is currently 27 to Andy's 28... they are 21 months apart though)  Tyrod has been in the league for five years, just like Andy... he has never reached your arbitrary stat line of 4000 and 30... in fact he has only thrown for more than two HUNDRED yards once in five NFL seasons.  So if you want to compare Andy to Tyrod, you cannot blame Andy for being able to start his first four years when Tyrod did not. 

I find it especially disconcerting that you argue against Andy having a higher floor.  You said "...just two years ago saw him put together a miserable, useless fantasy season."

Wow.  I admit that was his worst season, but he scored 246 fantasy points despite having a new OC with an entirely new system, lost his #2 and #3 target at the start of the season so they could not be replaced, and lost his world class WR1 for three games as well... and STILL scored 246 points.  What do you consider a high floor if that is not it?  Oh wait... you listed that..."someone like Eli".  Eli is a great comp... he didn't obtain this high floor you speak of until his sixth NFL season... the season Andy is starting this year... his first five years are similar to Andy's although Andy outperformed him in 4 of the 5 seasons.  That "miserable" fourth season of Andy's?  He hard more yards, 1 less TD and 3 less INTs than Eli's 4th season.  BTW... that was Andy's WORST season of his first five... it was Elis second best season.

Finally and most importantly... the changes this year are NOT a repeat of 2014.  Hue Jackson brought in an entirely new system, Ken Zampese is continuing the same system, so the change in OC is not nearly as significant.  Jones was hurt during training camp, but was still the plan at WR2 all the way until October 14th.  Eifert was knocked out the first game of the year.  Jones was replaced by Greg ####### Little... the best available off the street in October.  This time the Bengals have been filling the holes left by Jones and Sanu all off season.  Anyone who has watched the games so far has seen that Boyd has a floor of Sanu's performance last year, so that gap is completely filled.  The injury to Lafell caused him to miss camp time, but the rookie they drafted to replace Jones, Cody Core, has already drawn favorable comparisons to Marvin even if Lafell can't perform.  That will be a step down but not near as significant as the step from Marvin to Little or those games where Andy had Sanu as his WR1 in 2014.  So a downgrade to one of the top 5 passing targets.  Plus the WR depth behind Green, Boyd, Lafell & Core is pretty good.

I guess in the end this is all about familiarity breeds contempt.  Andy is being punished for developing on the job rather than some others like Rodgers or Taylor who developed on the bench.

You can chase the Nick Foles, Daute Culpeppers, Vince Youngs and RGIIs of the world... I will trust the QB that has been on the same career progression as the top QBs in fantasy. 

In sum, I am confident that, absent an injury to Andy or AJ (most QBs suffer when they lose an elite top target), Andy will be a fantasy QB1 this year (that means top 12, since I only participate in 12 team leagues).

I will leave this discussion based upon the sage advice of Chaka and we will revisit this issue in a few months and see where things stand.

 
First, you are comparing a 25 year old to a 29 year old and implying that the 25 year old has the age advantage... while they may be true for every other position in fantasy, I challenge you to prove that for the fantasy QB.  Of the seven QBs currently ranked in the top 12 for fantasy that have reached the age of 29 (Rodgers, Brees, Ben, Brady, Rivers, Manning, & Palmer) not a single one of them was better for fantasy at 25 then they were after 29.  We are talking redraft here, so only this season matters, so history shows that to be 29 is an advantage over being 25 for fantasy QBs.

Next, let's look at your arbitrary stat of 4000 yards and 30 TDs.  You complain that Dalton has not reached this arbitrary line in his first five seasons.  Of those seven current top QBs only three ever reached that threshold in their first five fantasy seasons (Rodgers & Rivers) and Rodgers was in his 4th season and Rivers was in his 5th. 

Andy Dalton did it in his 3rd NFL season.  That's earlier than every other top QB over 29... and his total yards were close to 4500  with 35 total TDs

Some argued for Tyrod Taylor (who is currently 27 to Andy's 28... they are 21 months apart though)  Tyrod has been in the league for five years, just like Andy... he has never reached your arbitrary stat line of 4000 and 30... in fact he has only thrown for more than two HUNDRED yards once in five NFL seasons.  So if you want to compare Andy to Tyrod, you cannot blame Andy for being able to start his first four years when Tyrod did not. 

I find it especially disconcerting that you argue against Andy having a higher floor.  You said "...just two years ago saw him put together a miserable, useless fantasy season."

Wow.  I admit that was his worst season, but he scored 246 fantasy points despite having a new OC with an entirely new system, lost his #2 and #3 target at the start of the season so they could not be replaced, and lost his world class WR1 for three games as well... and STILL scored 246 points.  What do you consider a high floor if that is not it?  Oh wait... you listed that..."someone like Eli".  Eli is a great comp... he didn't obtain this high floor you speak of until his sixth NFL season... the season Andy is starting this year... his first five years are similar to Andy's although Andy outperformed him in 4 of the 5 seasons.  That "miserable" fourth season of Andy's?  He hard more yards, 1 less TD and 3 less INTs than Eli's 4th season.  BTW... that was Andy's WORST season of his first five... it was Elis second best season.

Finally and most importantly... the changes this year are NOT a repeat of 2014.  Hue Jackson brought in an entirely new system, Ken Zampese is continuing the same system, so the change in OC is not nearly as significant.  Jones was hurt during training camp, but was still the plan at WR2 all the way until October 14th.  Eifert was knocked out the first game of the year.  Jones was replaced by Greg ####### Little... the best available off the street in October.  This time the Bengals have been filling the holes left by Jones and Sanu all off season.  Anyone who has watched the games so far has seen that Boyd has a floor of Sanu's performance last year, so that gap is completely filled.  The injury to Lafell caused him to miss camp time, but the rookie they drafted to replace Jones, Cody Core, has already drawn favorable comparisons to Marvin even if Lafell can't perform.  That will be a step down but not near as significant as the step from Marvin to Little or those games where Andy had Sanu as his WR1 in 2014.  So a downgrade to one of the top 5 passing targets.  Plus the WR depth behind Green, Boyd, Lafell & Core is pretty good.

I guess in the end this is all about familiarity breeds contempt.  Andy is being punished for developing on the job rather than some others like Rodgers or Taylor who developed on the bench.

You can chase the Nick Foles, Daute Culpeppers, Vince Youngs and RGIIs of the world... I will trust the QB that has been on the same career progression as the top QBs in fantasy. 

In sum, I am confident that, absent an injury to Andy or AJ (most QBs suffer when they lose an elite top target), Andy will be a fantasy QB1 this year (that means top 12, since I only participate in 12 team leagues).

I will leave this discussion based upon the sage advice of Chaka and we will revisit this issue in a few months and see where things stand.
Lost in all of this huge wall of text is that you're drawing your comparisons from a bygone era.  How Tom Brady or Eli Manning or Big Ben progressed 10-15 years ago is not relevant to the modern NFL.  If anything in some ways their progression had as much to do with the progression of the NFL passing game as any personal growth.  IE Big Ben's best season from a numbers standpoint may have been 2 years ago but his best fantasy finish (QB3) was all the way back in 2007 when he was 25 years old.

Beyond just the rise in numbers as a whole, QBs progress differently now than they did then.  They start sooner and are expected to perform at an elite level in an open offense sooner.  Guys like Luck, Newton, Wilson have all been elite quickly.  None of these guys in that year 4-7 as a starter range have broken out from that generation.  The Matt Ryan's, Ryan Tannehill's, Andy Dalton's, etc.  It's not like it was for QBs drafted back in 2004 where they were coddled and protected for 3-5 years before they really got a chance to open up the offense.  We didn't get to see what Ben Roethlisberger could do with ~600 attempts until his 10th season.  Eli not until his 8th.  Dalton was afforded that opportunity in his 3rd.  The offenses have already been opened up and we've seen what they can do.  Some like Newton and Wilson thrived.  Others have shown us what they are.  Solid above average QBs.

 
Unless rushing TDs don't count in your league, Dalton had 31 TDs in 2012, 35 in 2013 and 28 in 13 games last year.

 
Not sure if it's been covered yet (there are a lot of long posts, so I didn't read them all), but I think the issue for the big drop in ranking is the relatively tight grouping of similar QBs.  A single ppg can drop you 8-10 spots in the rankings.  Taking out Sanu (WR2 in ATL) and Jones (WR1B in DET) are in fact a hit as well as Eifert not being right to start the season.  Just a slight downward trend in PPG and, viola, he's ranked in the mid 20's.  He could easily have a couple of big games and outperform that, but so could a lot of guys ranked just ahead of him.

 

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