My league is a 14-team PPR keeper league in which keepers are kept based on last year’s draft value. Keepers are kept in exchange for a draft pick that is two places higher than the player was drafted the previous year. (ie. Devonta Freeman was drafted in the 8th round last year, so he can be kept for a 6th round pick this year).
Considering this format, it would be very advantageous to draft some of this year's backup runningbacks in the later rounds that have a good chance of being a starter next year.
So the question is this, which backup or late round runningbacks in this year’s fantasy draft have the best chance of being a starter or getting a significant increase in carries/production next year?
My predictions below:
1.) Duke Johnson – CLE - Current ADP: 75th overall / 29th RB
Isaiah Cowell is in a contract year and could see the Browns letting him walk. Talk in Browns camp is that the two should split carries this year and Duke is clearly the better pass catcher. If he is named the starter next year, I could see him going in the late 2nd-early 3rd in 2017.
2.) James Starks – GB – Current ADP: 141st overall / 46th RB
Eddie Lacy is in a contract year and lost a ton of carries to Starks last year. Starks is 30, Cheeseburger Eddie is back down to an acceptable weight and is only 25, but Starks didn’t get paid $2 million per year to not put pressure on Eddie. If the pack let Lacy go and don’t draft a RB, Starks could be sitting as a nice 3rd round pick next year.
3.) Jerick McKinnon – MIN – Current ADP: 177th overall / 59th RB
Adrian Peterson continues to defy the odds by being a dominant runningback into his 30s. He turned 31 this year and people have been predicting him to hit the wall for years. AP teased us about his retirement in July mentioning he would retire if he “got bored” with football. If he “gets bored” with football after this season, Jerick McKinnon could be in line for a huge role in the Vikings offense in 2017. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being a 2nd round pick, IF and only IF, AP decides to retire.
4.) Paul Perkins – NYG – Current ADP: 175th overall / 58th RB
Paul Perkins is the current #4 RB on the Giants but many speculate that he will inherit Rashad Jennings’ carries as Shane Vereen is a pass catcher and Andre Williams is a scrub. If Rashad Jennings were to retire next year, or even if he doesn’t, Paul Perkins could very well surpass him on the depth chart and be drafted in the 4th or 5th round next year.
Honorable Mention:
5.) Dion Lewis – NE – Current ADP: ??? Probably 90 overall / 35th RB
[SIZE=11pt]Dion Lewis will start the season on the PUP list after discovering he would need a second surgery on his knee and is expected to miss 6-10 weeks of the season. This means he could probably be drafted in the 8th round or so and be kept for a 6th round pick next year. This is an especially good pickup if your league allows an IR slot as he would likely be able to be placed on that and not congest a roster spot for the weeks he is out.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11pt]Your thoughts and predictions?[/SIZE]
Considering this format, it would be very advantageous to draft some of this year's backup runningbacks in the later rounds that have a good chance of being a starter next year.
So the question is this, which backup or late round runningbacks in this year’s fantasy draft have the best chance of being a starter or getting a significant increase in carries/production next year?
My predictions below:
1.) Duke Johnson – CLE - Current ADP: 75th overall / 29th RB
Isaiah Cowell is in a contract year and could see the Browns letting him walk. Talk in Browns camp is that the two should split carries this year and Duke is clearly the better pass catcher. If he is named the starter next year, I could see him going in the late 2nd-early 3rd in 2017.
2.) James Starks – GB – Current ADP: 141st overall / 46th RB
Eddie Lacy is in a contract year and lost a ton of carries to Starks last year. Starks is 30, Cheeseburger Eddie is back down to an acceptable weight and is only 25, but Starks didn’t get paid $2 million per year to not put pressure on Eddie. If the pack let Lacy go and don’t draft a RB, Starks could be sitting as a nice 3rd round pick next year.
3.) Jerick McKinnon – MIN – Current ADP: 177th overall / 59th RB
Adrian Peterson continues to defy the odds by being a dominant runningback into his 30s. He turned 31 this year and people have been predicting him to hit the wall for years. AP teased us about his retirement in July mentioning he would retire if he “got bored” with football. If he “gets bored” with football after this season, Jerick McKinnon could be in line for a huge role in the Vikings offense in 2017. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up being a 2nd round pick, IF and only IF, AP decides to retire.
4.) Paul Perkins – NYG – Current ADP: 175th overall / 58th RB
Paul Perkins is the current #4 RB on the Giants but many speculate that he will inherit Rashad Jennings’ carries as Shane Vereen is a pass catcher and Andre Williams is a scrub. If Rashad Jennings were to retire next year, or even if he doesn’t, Paul Perkins could very well surpass him on the depth chart and be drafted in the 4th or 5th round next year.
Honorable Mention:
5.) Dion Lewis – NE – Current ADP: ??? Probably 90 overall / 35th RB
[SIZE=11pt]Dion Lewis will start the season on the PUP list after discovering he would need a second surgery on his knee and is expected to miss 6-10 weeks of the season. This means he could probably be drafted in the 8th round or so and be kept for a 6th round pick next year. This is an especially good pickup if your league allows an IR slot as he would likely be able to be placed on that and not congest a roster spot for the weeks he is out.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=11pt]Your thoughts and predictions?[/SIZE]
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