One reason Zero RB is considered by many superior to a heavy RB strategy is that when RBs fail (injury or performance), a new RB takes their place. This was evident last year with Hightower, Williams, West/Ware, Langford, Rawls, White, David Johnson, Chris Johnson, Starks, etc. It was true the year before with CJ Anderson, Hill, Forsett, Tre Mason, etc. When a RB gets hurt, his points are often (not always, but often) replaced and that player is many times even available on WW. When a WR gets hurt, the next in line WR isn't often available since most teams #2 and sometimes #3 WRs are already owned. Besides, there isn't often a WR that steps in and provides similar production to the WR that was hurt. There were no new high quality starting WRs filling in the roles of Jordy, Dez, Alshon, Keenan Allen, Edelman, Sammy, DeSean Jackson or Martavis Bryant. A high end WR gets hurt and it's likely that the role is simply lost like tears in the rain. If a RB goes down, it is likely you can just plug in the next guy and keep rolling. There are exceptions. Keenan Allen replaced Steve Smith fairly well. Houston never was able to replace Foster. Those are more the exceptions though.I love having two stud RBs in the 1st 5 rounds. And IMO with everyone and their brother doing "zero RB" (what we called "WR-heavy 10+ years ago) there are even better values falling at RB since everyone's now convinced they're worthless.
Recency bias + fantasy experts touting zero RB has everyone on tilt lately. Most years about 1/2 of the stud RBs pan out, and WRs can be busts too. Hell, I think Antonio Brown is one of the riskiest players in the draft. Roethlisburger getting older/hurt more often, shaky OL, and no backup QB in PIT worth a damn, there's quite a few factors that make Brown every bit as risky as taking D.Johnson or L.Miller in the 1st round. A couple of years I took stud WRs 1-2, and they were terrible. Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Alshon Jefferys last year (had Nelson/Jeffries - whee!) - and when they went down, I was stuck with a bust WR duo and below average RBs. None of my lottery ticket upside backs hit and it was a loooong season.
Zero RB, in particular, one taken to this extreme is viable because so many leagues have gone PPR, and there has been an increase in the number of flex spots. NFL10 year trends have seen (for both PPR and standard) the fantasy points for the top 24 RBs decrease while the top 24 WRs increase. That is true on both a season cumulative score and PPG average so it reflects both usage and not just injury rates. Last year was the year the WRs almost pulled even with the RBs in standard. In PPR, the WRs passed the RBs awhile ago. In a PPR league, the ideal play is to start as many WRs as you can. So if you can start 5 WRs in a PPR league, there is nothing wrong with starting out with 7-8 WRs to make sure you that when byes, injuries and busts happen, you are always able to have WRs to fill your lineup.ZERORB works if you A) have a year like last year where RBs went down faster than hookers on payday and B) you actually hit on 1 or 2 of those backup "diamonds in the rough". I'm not opposed to a "SINGLERB" strategy where you get your (your lineups not neccessarily a true)RB1 with a nice value pick and then punting your RB2 slot until the 10th........but punting the entire position for the first 10 rounds is (IMO) risky.
Absolutely, which is all the more reason you need to be doing it. It's a huge run you don't want to get stuck on the wrong end of.When everyone is doing it, or at least 4 or 5 owners, it gets thin quick.
I'm not debating the merits of going WR-WR-WR, but in rounds 4-5-6, when 5+ teams are going 0-WR, there is value at RB, and people are taking WRs that are pretty much the same as guys they can get in three rounds.Absolutely, which is all the more reason you need to be doing it. It's a huge run you don't want to get stuck on the wrong end of.
In PPR, a zero WR strategy is insane. Why would you not draft the position that scores the most points and typically requires the most spots in your lineup?I'm not debating the merits of going WR-WR-WR, but in rounds 4-5-6, when 5+ teams are going 0-WR, there is value at RB, and people are taking WRs that are pretty much the same as guys they can get in three rounds.
By the way, it's thinking like yours that made 0-WR a viable strategy.
Yeah, guy, that's why I just freaking said I wasn't debating the merits of going 0-RB.In PPR, a zero WR strategy is insane. Why would you not draft the position that scores the most points and typically requires the most spots in your lineup?
I akin that to the old RB/RB theory back in the day. Buying into the "because everyone else is doing it" idea just pushes the premier players in the other positions back to the guys who started the runs.Absolutely, which is all the more reason you need to be doing it. It's a huge run you don't want to get stuck on the wrong end of.
My comment wasn't about zeroRB, it was about zeroWR being viable.Yeah, guy, that's why I just freaking said I wasn't debating the merits of going 0-RB.
I am discussing the merits of going WR in the middle rounds because that is your strategy. If many owners are doing it, and chances are, many are, then the value is oftent imes not there.
From what I have seen from redrafts, and MFL10s, my plan, in the abstract, would be to try and go WR the first three rounds, and then play it by ear. Sometimes there are good WRs in the 4th/5th, sometimes it's fished out.
It was the right move back in the day because RBs were such a dominant position. For example, in 2006 PPR was very rare. LT more than doubled the points of the highest WR. Chester Taylor was RB 15. Only 3 WRs outscored Taylor that year. People went RB heavy early because RBs scored an insane amount of points. In 2003, Jamal Lewis ran for over 2000 yards and 14 TDs. He was only the RB4 for the year. That's not true anymore. PPR is more common and WRs score more points than RBs in PPR. Even in standard, the gap has been closing over the last 10 years.I akin that to the old RB/RB theory back in the day. Buying into the "because everyone else is doing it" idea just pushes the premier players in the other positions back to the guys who started the runs.
Do several mock drafts with this strategy and see how comfortable you are with the rosters you end up with.I want to wait on RB past the single digits rounds. Drafting mainly wrs in the single digit rounds. Can this be a viable strategy ? How can I make it effective?
I'd add Wendell Smallwood to that list....and IMO, he might end up being the steal. He was targeted by Pederson in the draft. He's a good pass catcher. He's behind Matthews on the depth chart...and (IMO the most important) he hasn't played in the preseason yet so he's kind of flying under the conventional radar. He's supposed to play this week....and if he performs well, he'll shoot up the rankings. I play in a league with a lot of PHI fans.....and I'm of kind of disgruntled that our draft is Sun....because by then we'll have more of an idea of how he'll play.Below are the RB's with ADP's over 120. If you took 7 of these guys you might be ok. By the end of the season some of these will certainly be RB2 worthy. I like the bolded ones the best. Blount and Powell should have enough work load to be Day 1 starters. Coleman, Sproles, Michael, White, Morris should have some work early and are good handcuffs also. Booker, Ware, Johnson, Marshall, McKinnon are all solid hand cuffs.
LeGarrette Blount
Bilal Powell
Tevin Coleman
Darren Sproles
Christine Michael
Devontae Booker
Shane Vereen
James Starks
James White
Kenneth Dixon
DeAndre Washington
Jerick McKinnon
C.J. Prosise
Spencer Ware
Javorius Allen
Jordan Howard
Charcandrick West
Chris Johnson
Alfred Morris
Terrance West
Chris Thompson
Paul Perkins
Darren McFadden
Tim Hightower
Cameron Artis-Payne
Kenyan Drake
Josh Ferguson
Ronnie Hillman
Keith Marshall
Marcel Reece
Tyler Gaffney
Reggie Bush
Shaun Draughn
Alfred Blue
Wendell Smallwood
C.J. Spiller
Benny Cunningham
Dexter McCluster
I think zero WR is viable at the ends of the drafts. I am at the end of the rounds in a couple drafts. One is a 14 team where I have the 1.14. If people are going bonkers on WRs (most of the time I see 9 go before me in my mocks, yeah I am going RB heavy. It's not how I have been drafting the last few years, but instead of forcing WR/WR with a combo like Nelson/Allen, I would rather grab two of Miller/AP/Zeke/Bell/Freeman. A few mocks I have done, I have gotten a combo like Miller/Freeman then at the next corner gotten L.Murray/CJ Anderson. Somebody like Maclin with my 4th, and then start in on the WRs for the next 3-4 rounds. Personally, I like that a lot more than the opposite. I will go WR/WR if guys like ARob, Dez, Allen are sitting there to grab two of, but that doesn't seem to ever happen now because it seems like everybody is onto the zero Rb thing.It was the right move back in the day because RBs were such a dominant position. For example, in 2006 PPR was very rare. LT more than doubled the points of the highest WR. Chester Taylor was RB 15. Only 3 WRs outscored Taylor that year. People went RB heavy early because RBs scored an insane amount of points. In 2003, Jamal Lewis ran for over 2000 yards and 14 TDs. He was only the RB4 for the year. That's not true anymore. PPR is more common and WRs score more points than RBs in PPR. Even in standard, the gap has been closing over the last 10 years.
Actually I was deep at WR - had 4 good ones and 3 got hurt. And a couple of breakout WR who did not. lol. And a couple who had QBs go down.One reason Zero RB is considered by many superior to a heavy RB strategy is that when RBs fail (injury or performance), a new RB takes their place. This was evident last year with Hightower, Williams, West/Ware, Langford, Rawls, White, David Johnson, Chris Johnson, Starks, etc. It was true the year before with CJ Anderson, Hill, Forsett, Tre Mason, etc. When a RB gets hurt, his points are often (not always, but often) replaced and that player is many times even available on WW. When a WR gets hurt, the next in line WR isn't often available since most teams #2 and sometimes #3 WRs are already owned. Besides, there isn't often a WR that steps in and provides similar production to the WR that was hurt. There were no new high quality starting WRs filling in the roles of Jordy, Dez, Alshon, Keenan Allen, Edelman, Sammy, DeSean Jackson or Martavis Bryant. A high end WR gets hurt and it's likely that the role is simply lost like tears in the rain. If a RB goes down, it is likely you can just plug in the next guy and keep rolling. There are exceptions. Keenan Allen replaced Steve Smith fairly well. Houston never was able to replace Foster. Those are more the exceptions though.
Last year when you took Al and Jordy early and then were stuck with average RBs. That's not zero RB. If you had gone zero RB, you would have had more WRs to replace Jordy and Alshon with. Cooks, Evans, Keenan, Marshall, Sammy, AR15, Edelman, Maclin, Decker, Cooper, Sanders, Martavis, Jarvis, John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, etc. Those were all guys going between rounds 3 and 8. You would have had a shot at adding 3 or 4 of those guys above if you had gone zero RB and could have replaced Alshon and Jordy without much problem. Ofcourse there were other bust WRs in that range like Agoholor, Adams, Andre, Vincent Jackson. That's part of the point of Zero RB. We aren't very good at determining who will have a good year and who won't. Even in the early rounds, we are only about 50/50. So the idea that you can draft 2 RBs and 2 WRs in the first four rounds and feel good that you got those spots covered is a fallacy. If we have 3 WR spots to fill and we start the draft with 6 WRs, then it is much more likely that we found some combination of high quality WRs to start on a weekly basis.
Zero RB, in particular, one taken to this extreme is viable because so many leagues have gone PPR, and there has been an increase in the number of flex spots. NFL10 year trends have seen (for both PPR and standard) the fantasy points for the top 24 RBs decrease while the top 24 WRs increase. That is true on both a season cumulative score and PPG average so it reflects both usage and not just injury rates. Last year was the year the WRs almost pulled even with the RBs in standard. In PPR, the WRs passed the RBs awhile ago. In a PPR league, the ideal play is to start as many WRs as you can. So if you can start 5 WRs in a PPR league, there is nothing wrong with starting out with 7-8 WRs to make sure you that when byes, injuries and busts happen, you are always able to have WRs to fill your lineup.
Oddly the strategy works well if other teams are going Zero RB because it pushes RBs farther down the draft. If you have a league where half the league is going zero RB, then half the league aren't taking RBs which means half the RBs that normally get drafted all falling. This means the choices at RB aren't bad for the people that waited. The team in trouble is the lone wolf who decided to buck the trend and go heavy RB because of the value. They are going to be stuck picking WR at the end of a massive run while good value picks will fall to the Zero WR guys.
In an odd way thats one of the beauties of waiting on a rb, a bulk of the time when this happens you are starting behind the 8ball and finish high on the waiver priority and then you can snag the back up to the inevitable starter that goes out in the first couple of weeks.Woof......if waiting that long nets you the RB's above then I don't wait. Glllll figuring out who to start week to week from that cluster.
Below are the RB's with ADP's over 120. If you took 7 of these guys you might be ok. By the end of the season some of these will certainly be RB2 worthy. I like the bolded ones the best. Blount and Powell should have enough work load to be Day 1 starters. Coleman, Sproles, Michael, White, Morris should have some work early and are good handcuffs also. Booker, Ware, Johnson, Marshall, McKinnon are all solid hand cuffs.
LeGarrette Blount
Bilal Powell
Tevin Coleman
Darren Sproles
Christine Michael
Devontae Booker
Shane Vereen
James Starks
James White
Kenneth Dixon
DeAndre Washington
Jerick McKinnon
C.J. Prosise
Spencer Ware
Javorius Allen
Jordan Howard
Charcandrick West
Chris Johnson
Alfred Morris
Terrance West
Chris Thompson
Paul Perkins
Darren McFadden
Tim Hightower
Cameron Artis-Payne
Kenyan Drake
Josh Ferguson
Ronnie Hillman
Keith Marshall
Marcel Reece
Tyler Gaffney
Reggie Bush
Shaun Draughn
Alfred Blue
Wendell Smallwood
C.J. Spiller
Benny Cunningham
Dexter McCluster
This is exactly my philosophy. Perfectly stated. Every draft has a pulse - if you ignore that pulse to adhere to some rigid philosophy/strategy you're going to miss on a lot of value.I am just going to take the best player available on my list while filling my starting line up. As pointed out by Karma, the draft strategy really depends on what position you are drafting and how the league is drafting. I do not like to enter drafts with a pre-planned strategy. Too many things change as the draft unfolds.
Don't worry - some fantasy expert will recommend him as a sleeper on Friday. lol.and I'm of kind of disgruntled that our draft is Sun....because by then we'll have more of an idea of how he'll play.
I've seen the data - it's been posted by many people in many places. And I don't disagree - as mentioned, I was employing some form of this philosophy as long ago as 2004-2005 when everyone dogmatically went RB-RB-RB.I know people here have mentioned Zero RB in relation to last year. The Zero RB article that started the trend is from 2012 or 13 and was based on data from the seasons before that. Also, even in standard, the per game points scored by the top 24 RBs has steadily been declining the last 10 years while the points per game scored by the top 24 WRs has been steadily increasing. It is a clear trend and not new to last year and not just due to some outlier year of injuries. I can show you the data if you want. I posted about it in the "Trends" thread.
I love that dude - strong men also cry!Nice post HSG.
I don't think anyone should be expecting Priest Holmes or Marshall Faulk numbers unless **** Vermeil is resurrected though.
eta - I guess **** Vermeil is still around, so there is some hope.
On the dominator and mocks, when drafting late in round 1, I'm kind of loving what RB-RB can do. I keep taking Miller, then going with Charles at the top of the second. Late in the third you can usually find one of Hilton/Watkins/Allen/Cooks/Thomas, occasionally even maybe two of them and hope to grab another top of the fourth ( maybe Maclin here as well ). Alternatively, you can find a Hyde/Murray/Rawls in the 4th to take your RBs over the edge, then go heavy on the likes of Floyd/Decker/Moncrief/Decker/Lockett in the middle rounds to bolster the WR corps and hope to hut real pay dirt on one of them.It's funny, BC I'm thinking the opposite this year. I think the wr early and often philosophy has shifted things back to the RBS for contrarians like myself.
There are tons of great Wrs this year but only 5-10 truly good Rb options and then the rest are total question marks.
Mid like to come out of the first 5 rounds with 3 Rb and 2 Wrs, taking Rb with my first RD pick.
Completely agree.I like some of the talent in middle rounds in both WR and RB this year so it feels good to be flexible, keep an open mind with tactics and react to how your draft is playing out. Obviously, that is always a good idea to a degree anyway, but even more so this year.
Thank you. This is excellent.Below are the RB's with ADP's over 120. If you took 7 of these guys you might be ok. By the end of the season some of these will certainly be RB2 worthy. I like the bolded ones the best. Blount and Powell should have enough work load to be Day 1 starters. Coleman, Sproles, Michael, White, Morris should have some work early and are good handcuffs also. Booker, Ware, Johnson, Marshall, McKinnon are all solid hand cuffs.
LeGarrette Blount
Bilal Powell
Tevin Coleman
Darren Sproles
Christine Michael
Devontae Booker
Shane Vereen
James Starks
James White
Kenneth Dixon
DeAndre Washington
Jerick McKinnon
C.J. Prosise
Spencer Ware
Javorius Allen
Jordan Howard
Charcandrick West
Chris Johnson
Alfred Morris
Terrance West
Chris Thompson
Paul Perkins
Darren McFadden
Tim Hightower
Cameron Artis-Payne
Kenyan Drake
Josh Ferguson
Ronnie Hillman
Keith Marshall
Marcel Reece
Tyler Gaffney
Reggie Bush
Shaun Draughn
Alfred Blue
Wendell Smallwood
C.J. Spiller
Benny Cunningham
Dexter McCluster