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Why I would not draft David Johnson (1 Viewer)

Frank Black

Frank Black

Footballguy
No analysis, only a gut feeling based on historical trends. When is the last time an AZ RB came at a round 1 through 3 draft value, and produced at that value?  My gut feeling is that Johnson will not live up to his round 1 or 2 draft price. 

To some extent, AZ reminds me of RBs in Detroit, to the extent that some RBs may far outperform their ADP in a given year and turn in stud numbers, but actually drafting one at a high ADP value tends to burn you.

 
Not worried.....drafted him as often as I could this year so far.....as high as 1.03, down to 1.08, various league setups. 

 
Chaka said:
So...because he gives you the heebie-jebbies?
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heebie-jeebies are nothing to sneeze at.  My best drafting comes from avoiding the heebie-jebbies.  Honestly I feel the same way as the OP on Johnson.  Hard to put any numbers or science to it, but I think we are a year early on Johnson.  I don't think those who draft him early are dumb or making a bad decision, but I like others better for the same price, so I probably won't own him this year.  

 
There are more legit reasons to be concerned over Johnson (which I have gone more in depth on in other threads).

To summarize:

- Had a really hot stretch for a month plus at the end of the season . . . is that the norm or just a hot streak.
- Scored an insane amount of TD on a very small amount of touches. Historically that pace is not repeatable.
- Factoring in the playoffs, at the end of the year, his reception rate was the equivalent of a pace for 100 receptions over a full season. Likely unsustainable.
- He averaged nearly 13 yards per reception, which is very unlikely to happen again for a RB.
- His numbers were greatly helped by a huge game against PHI (229 yfs and 3 TD). I would argue that is a once in a great while type of a game, but not the likely norm.
- We really don't know if he can be a work horse back. Had 20 carries twice last year.
- Johnson got to play as much down the stretch due to injuries to other backs. I would argue that Chris Johnson and Ellington will get more touches than most people are projecting.
- After the game against the Eagles last year, his running stats were very run of the mill.

I am not suggesting that Johnson will bomb (assuming he stays healthy). But some people have him as the #1 player overall and in line for a season for the ages. Given the drop of in fantasy scoring for RBs, he should still be a Top 5-10 RB (higher in PPR leagues), but I am not ready to suggest he will have a 2500/20 season.

 
Phenomena said:
Lock/ban/put OP in chains/salt the earth around his home.
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You have to stand in line behind my wife for that...

Seriously, there is a tendency to like shiny new toys. Several of them turn out fine, but my gut on Johnson is telling me no. 

 
Frank Black said:
You have to stand in line behind my wife for that...

Seriously, there is a tendency to like shiny new toys. Several of them turn out fine, but my gut on Johnson is telling me no. 
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Which is fine (having a negative gut feeling on Johnson, IDK about standing in line behind your wife).

I think the issue people have and lack of serious responses is that-

A) Could have simply added to a David Johnson thread.  No need to start this one.

B) Particularly when you have no analysis, data, trends, anything other than a gut feeling and something about ARI RBs and Detroit or something...

C) Really didnt need a new thread for this

 
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19 catches, 701 total yards in 6 games at the end of the season

19 catches, 687 total yards and 6 tds in 6 games at the end of the season

The second one is david johnson.  The first one is rashad jennings 2013 in oakland 

 
bostonfred said:
19 catches, 701 total yards in 6 games at the end of the season

19 catches, 687 total yards and 6 tds in 6 games at the end of the season

The second one is david johnson.  The first one is rashad jennings 2013 in oakland 
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And then Jennings went to the Giants. How is this relevant?

 
bostonfred said:
19 catches, 701 total yards in 6 games at the end of the season

19 catches, 687 total yards and 6 tds in 6 games at the end of the season

The second one is david johnson.  The first one is rashad jennings 2013 in oakland 
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hmmm

my math says 15 catches, 505 total yards and 5 TDs (& no playoffs - Johnson put up a 27.80 point game in the Conference Championship)

OK, nevermind...you went back up two games and cherry picked an artificial end point...so Weeks 9-15 (injured DNP Week 14)

And then changed teams


11


at HOU


W 28-23


22


150


6.8


1


3


2


-2


-1.0


0


22.8


12


TEN


L 19-23


16


73


4.6


0


5


4


49


12.3


0


16.2


13


at DAL


L 24-31


17


35


2.1


2


2


1


8


8.0


0


17.3


15


KC


L 31-56


23


91


4.0


2


3


3


12


4.0


0


25.3


16


at SD


L 13-26


10


45


4.5


0


3


3


27


9.0


0


10.2


17


DEN


L 14-34


4


9


2.3


0


3


2


8


4.0


0


3.7

 
C.J. Anderson had a similarly impressive end to his season 2 years ago. In his final 8 games, he had 1057 yfs with 30 receptions and 10 TD.

Again, the question becomes . . . when guys have a really productive stretch is that the exception or the norm?

 
Anarchy99 said:
C.J. Anderson had a similarly impressive end to his season 2 years ago. In his final 8 games, he had 1057 yfs with 30 receptions and 10 TD.

Again, the question becomes . . . when guys have a really productive stretch is that the exception or the norm?
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well said.  If only Doug Baldwin got the credit that DJ is getting.

 
bostonfred said:
19 catches, 701 total yards in 6 games at the end of the season

19 catches, 687 total yards and 6 tds in 6 games at the end of the season

The second one is david johnson.  The first one is rashad jennings 2013 in oakland 
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Glad u found this. Thks very informative. 

 
Stop looking at a bunch of numbers, and watch the guy run.

Then, you'll either want to draft him, or imho, you're not very good at this hobby.

 
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I think that his offense and o line is good enough to support a stud Rb.  We saw this with Chris Johnson in the first half of 2015.  CJ isn't the kind of back that will move a pile.  He needs space to create between the tackles and that's exactly what the o line dos for him.  He never faced stacked boxes BC Palmer, fitz, Floyd, and brown made defenses pay dearly for doing that.  

I don't see that changing this year.   Do you?  Forget Arizona teams of the past.  This is a different offense.  Last year this offense tore up the entire NFL.  They toyed with Seattle in Seattle.   Embarrassed them.  Through the air.  On the ground.  It was a thing of beauty.  

Im not sold on Johnson as an elite talent, but I do think he's a very good Rb in an elite situation and that makes for fantasy gold. 

 
I took him at 1.04 in a PPR and I'm very excited about having him as the cornerstone of my team. While his sample size was small-ish, watching him perform, he looked like the real deal. He's going to be used at the stripe and in the receiving game. IMO he is the best bet to give a team an advantage at the RB position. 

I also backed him up with a late grab of Coleman, so the only real threat is that it's more RBBC than people think - and everything I've heard from the coach indicates that they want Johnson to tote the rock and carry this offense. Palmer is not getting younger, and with a defense as good as AZ's, this is a team that's built to run, use PA passing and protect a lead with game management. 

Of course this can all go to hell in a handbasket as with any team any year, but it seems likely to me that Johnson will be worthy of every bit of his draft position and will have some huge weeks in 2016. 

 
DJ is going high because of a proven high ceiling, perhaps the highest ceiling of any player at any position...he is an even better pick in shallow leagues where depth or replacements are easy to come by so the risk is digestable.

 
I dont know..DJ is awfully appealing but how many of these guys have we seen in recent years? What is his current ADP ,a first round pick? You want to put all of your eggs in one basket ? 

I'll take my chances on other guys elsewhere..of the top RBs give me injured rebuilt Jamal Charles over DJ..or Lacy , Forte, Gurley, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, Ingram..and thats not even including top WRs available in early parts of drafts. Im not a big believer in Az..

 
TripItUp said:
DJ is going high because of a proven high ceiling, perhaps the highest ceiling of any player at any position...he is an even better pick in shallow leagues where depth or replacements are easy to come by so the risk is digestable.
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Highest ceiling of any player at any position?  You guys get too carried away sometimes 

 
Tanner9919 said:
I dont know..DJ is awfully appealing but how many of these guys have we seen in recent years? What is his current ADP ,a first round pick? You want to put all of your eggs in one basket ? 

I'll take my chances on other guys elsewhere..of the top RBs give me injured rebuilt Jamal Charles over DJ..or Lacy , Forte, Gurley, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, Ingram..and thats not even including top WRs available in early parts of drafts. Im not a big believer in Az..
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So you're saying you won't take DJ because everyone is high on him so you'll take another player with equal or greater risk because _______________?

Not quite following the logic. Charles with rubber band ACLs and not one, but 2 stud backups (so competition is fierce and you have to carry 2 handcuffs?), Ingram who has never stayed healthy for a full season, Forte and his bad knees/hammy at 30-31 and Lacy who has a very talented RBBC Starks in the house, Martin who's 100% hype based on a great rookie season with Simms in the house, Gurley who doesn't catch the rock - of your list, only Lamar Miller intrigues me as a possible 1A over Johnson's potential. 

And Miller is also a 1st round pick. ;)  

 
flapgreen said:
Highest ceiling of any player at any position?  You guys get too carried away sometimes 
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Man-love for an NFL player in FFB is the purest kind of love. Don't fight it.  :wub:

(true story, my team name used to be "Tomlinson Mancrush".  :lmao:

 
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I tend to focus more on the highly positive comments made by Arians and Keim about DJ more than last year's stats. And Arians is not exactly one to often throw around high praise for his players.

 
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SeniorVBDStudent said:
well said.  If only Doug Baldwin got the credit that DJ is getting.
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Anarchy99 said:
C.J. Anderson had a similarly impressive end to his season 2 years ago. In his final 8 games, he had 1057 yfs with 30 receptions and 10 TD.

Again, the question becomes . . . when guys have a really productive stretch is that the exception or the norm?
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I am down on DJ relative to most. I have him more as a late 1st/2nd round pick. However the difference between Baldwin is David Johnson is the fact we have 4.5 years of unimpressive football from Doug Baldwin. David Johnson has never been anything but impressive. The difference between David Johnson and CJ Anderson is that DJ was a beast in college, broke out at a very young age and is an uber athlete. CJ didn't produce in college because he couldn't even break out and earn a starting role. He's also an average at best athlete for the RB position in the NFL. DJ checks all the boxes for what a star RB would look like. CJ checks none of them. 

 
zamboni said:
I tend to focus more on the highly positive comments made by Arians and Keim about DJ more than last year's stats. And Arians is not exactly one to often throw around high praise for his players.
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That's also my take. He's never been one to mince words, and if he says he's going to give a guy the rock, he does. I'm optimistic that DJ will be given every opportunity to be a bellcow centerpiece of this offense. And with the creative playcalling, I expect DJ to be heavily targeted in the passing game. 

 
abbottjamesr said:
6 games of crazy stats does not a make a back instantly worth a 1st round pick I think is why its relevant.  
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He's on the number one offense in the league and he's going to get a ton of carries and a ton of targets this year. Not sure what you get excited about if it's not David Johnson. 

 
Milkman said:
He's on the number one offense in the league and he's going to get a ton of carries and a ton of targets this year. Not sure what you get excited about if it's not David Johnson. 
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People said the same thing about CJ Anderson and Montee Ball last year. I think DJ is a different beast. I am just saying being on the number one offense and being in line for lots of touches does not automatically make me excited.  

 
spider321 said:
Stop looking at a bunch of numbers, and watch the guy run.

Then, you'll either want to draft him, or imho, you're not very good at this hobby.
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not sure about this.  When was the last time that a running back named David came at round 1 through 3 draft value and actually produced at that value?

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Not quite following the logic. Charles with rubber band ACLs and not one, but 2 stud backups (so competition is fierce and you have to carry 2 handcuffs?), Ingram who has never stayed healthy for a full season, Forte and his bad knees/hammy at 30-31 and Lacy who has a very talented RBBC Starks in the house, Martin who's 100% hype based on a great rookie season with Simms in the house, Gurley who doesn't catch the rock
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All RB's have their risks, but I believe you are choosing to ignore Johnson's because you like the guy.  Logic doesn't have anything to do with it.  We pick the situations and the players we like best and tell our selves a story so we can get behind a decision.  

You say you are worried about Charles ACL's yet last time he came back from ACL surgery he had 1700+ total yards and played all 16 games.  You are worried about 2 "stud backups" that have always been back ups but aren't worried about Johnson's back ups who both were the starters the last two seasons and one has a 2000 yard season in his resume.

Then you compare him to guys that are being drafted in the third round.  I would happily take Johnson in the third round and if he ever puts together a couple seasons like Forte has he might then be worth a first.  

Martin is 100% hype other than last year when he averaged a modest 13.1 PPG and finished as the #3 overall running back.  And again you are worried about a career back up RB stealing carries from him but not worried about CJ2k or Ellington.

Please stop telling us to be logical and just admit that you like the guy.  It's ok to draft guys you like even if it doesn't fit some sort of science.  I always have like Miller and found his situation aggravating the last couple years.  I am excited to own him this year and see what he can do with real coaching.  I don't know if he will be better than Johnson, but I would just rather own Miller or Peterson (lived in MN for 7 years) or Gurley ( I grew up in STL and still clinging to the team).  

 
abbottjamesr said:
All RB's have their risks, but I believe you are choosing to ignore Johnson's because you like the guy.  Logic doesn't have anything to do with it.  We pick the situations and the players we like best and tell our selves a story so we can get behind a decision.  

You say you are worried about Charles ACL's yet last time he came back from ACL surgery he had 1700+ total yards and played all 16 games.  You are worried about 2 "stud backups" that have always been back ups but aren't worried about Johnson's back ups who both were the starters the last two seasons and one has a 2000 yard season in his resume.

Then you compare him to guys that are being drafted in the third round.  I would happily take Johnson in the third round and if he ever puts together a couple seasons like Forte has he might then be worth a first.  

Martin is 100% hype other than last year when he averaged a modest 13.1 PPG and finished as the #3 overall running back.  And again you are worried about a career back up RB stealing carries from him but not worried about CJ2k or Ellington.

Please stop telling us to be logical and just admit that you like the guy.  It's ok to draft guys you like even if it doesn't fit some sort of science.  I always have like Miller and found his situation aggravating the last couple years.  I am excited to own him this year and see what he can do with real coaching.  I don't know if he will be better than Johnson, but I would just rather own Miller or Peterson (lived in MN for 7 years) or Gurley ( I grew up in STL and still clinging to the team).  
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I never said I didn't like the guy. Obviously I like him because I drafted him. Also who's "us"? I don't recall telling anyone to be logical. I asked one person a question.  

FYI, the guy with the 2000 yard season under his belt is 31, and the other guy Ellington sucks - he's underachieved and never stayed healthy which is why the Cards brought in and resurrected a 30 thought to be washed up yr old CJohnson, who for the better part of many years was known as "CKNoK" or "CJ?K".  So no, I do not agree that there are equally talented backs to West & Ware behind Johnson, nor am I particularly worried about either barring injury to D.Johnson. 

And back to logic, while I do like the guy, I also appreciate when folks are logical. It's a nice way to be and makes for better debate about FFB.  The member I quoted named a lot of guys with lower upside and greater risk and gave no reason for it, which I didn't see as particularly logical.  

Thanks for your input though. :)  

Ps - I drafted Miller the last two years and I think he has a chance to be #1 overall RB. And yes, I like that guy too. Sometimes it's about opportunity and the eye test. IMO both Miller & Johnson qualify. 

Cheers, and good luck to you with Miller.  Drafting on the 5th and hoping I can get him. 

 
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Ilov80s said:
People said the same thing about CJ Anderson and Montee Ball last year. I think DJ is a different beast. I am just saying being on the number one offense and being in line for lots of touches does not automatically make me excited.  
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Ok so what does get you excited? I mean this is it bro. It's not guaranteed but it's an amazing set of circumstances. 

 
Milkman said:
Ok so what does get you excited? I mean this is it bro. It's not guaranteed but it's an amazing set of circumstances. 
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Yeah, I mean - people were excited about CJ Anderson for really, really good reason. He didn't work out, but that's 20-20 hindsight. He could have been a BEAST!  Wide open lanes in a 1-cut system and Manning at the helm, and all those receptions & GL carries!  (sad trombone)  

But that's the rub - you get excited about this type of player in this type of opportunity with the hopes that they do work out. I would think that's apparent. lol

I mentioned it in the zero RB topic, but IMHO Antonio Brown, the consensus #1 overall pick scares the crap out of me to the point that I'm sitting there at the draft thinking "don't give me #1, don't pull my name, don't do it!" - Big Ben another year older, OL not all that awesome, and terrible backup QB play. And Roeth getting more and more banged up every year...it's hard to imagine Brown living up to 1.01 if Roethlisburger should miss any significant time.  Yet I never see people say, "don't take Antonio Brown - there's a lot of risk!" - because you look at Antonio Brown and see the ceiling, which is league-winning ability to score fantasy points. 

I guess I look at Johnson and see that, just like I looked at CJ Anderson and saw that - the only reason I didn't draft CJ Anderson was because someone else always beat me to it. And yeah - dodged a bullet there in hindsight, but it's not going to stop me from again trying to take what's become the unicorn of modern FFB, the "Feature Back in a good offense with a team that intends to game-plan around him" - the running back worth spending a top 3 pick on - they're so rare they're breathtaking.  :wub:  

And maybe there is a little man-crush there - but the upside justifies it. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I never said I didn't like the guy. Obviously I like him because I drafted him. Also who's "us"? I don't recall telling anyone to be logical. I asked one person a question.  

FYI, the guy with the 2000 yard season under his belt is 31, and the other guy Ellington sucks - he's underachieved and never stayed healthy which is why the Cards brought in a 30 yr old CJohnson, who for the better part of many years was known as "CKNoK" or "CJ?K".  So no, I do not agree that there are equally talented backs to West & Ware behind Johnson, nor am I particularly worried about either barring injury to D.Johnson. 

And back to logic, while I do like the guy, I also appreciate when folks are logical. It's a nice way to be and makes for better debate about FFB.  The member I quoted named a lot of guys with lower upside and greater risk and gave no reason for it, which I didn't see as particularly logical.  

Thanks for your input though. :)  

Ps - I drafted Miller the last two years and I think he has a chance to be #1 overall RB. And yes, I like that guy too. Sometimes it's about opportunity and the eye test. IMO both Miller & Johnson qualify. 

Cheers, and good luck to you with Miller.  Drafting on the 5th and hoping I can get him. 
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Sorry for the rant, it wasn't directed at anybody in particular.  There seems to be some mega love for Johnson and it seems like if you post anything to the contrary many think you nuts or not seeing the obvious.  

I like to think that I am logical about my fantasy football analysis, but at the end of the day I think you can sell your self on anything you want to be sold on.  Mathew Barry puts out his "100 Facts" article ever year and even states that you can make any point you want with stats.  

Below is "my" logic behind the guys I have ranked ahead of Johnson and guys I would prefer at there adps to Johnson in the early first.

L. Miller - 4.8 ypc over the last two seasons.  Good receiving out of the back field.  Going to a team that is not afraid to give a RB 24 touches a game.  I like him.

T. Gurley - Looks like the best young RB since AP.  4.8 ypc last season on 229 touches.  Going to get the work load.

A. Peterson - 1480 rushing yards last season with a busted up O-line.  Healthy o-line and treadwell should improve running game and offense as a whole.  I like him.

J. Charles - He is like the old proven version of D. Johnson to me. Probably only getting 14-15 carries a game but 4-5 receptions too and its enough cause he is that good.  Best part I can get him in the second round.  Outside of Peterson there is no back I would rather watch play.

D. Johnson - I believe he has the talent.  I am concerned about the volume.  I am projecting 16-18 touches per week. Probably still enough to be RB1 and he has the upside to be RB1 with a larger work load.

 
Milkman said:
Ok so what does get you excited? I mean this is it bro. It's not guaranteed but it's an amazing set of circumstances. 
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DJ gets me excited plenty. It's the confluence of several circumstances. More than just being the top RB on the top offense. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
There are more legit reasons to be concerned over Johnson (which I have gone more in depth on in other threads).

To summarize:

- Had a really hot stretch for a month plus at the end of the season . . . is that the norm or just a hot streak.
- Scored an insane amount of TD on a very small amount of touches. Historically that pace is not repeatable.
- Factoring in the playoffs, at the end of the year, his reception rate was the equivalent of a pace for 100 receptions over a full season. Likely unsustainable.
- He averaged nearly 13 yards per reception, which is very unlikely to happen again for a RB.
- His numbers were greatly helped by a huge game against PHI (229 yfs and 3 TD). I would argue that is a once in a great while type of a game, but not the likely norm.
- We really don't know if he can be a work horse back. Had 20 carries twice last year.
- Johnson got to play as much down the stretch due to injuries to other backs. I would argue that Chris Johnson and Ellington will get more touches than most people are projecting.
- After the game against the Eagles last year, his running stats were very run of the mill.

I am not suggesting that Johnson will bomb (assuming he stays healthy). But some people have him as the #1 player overall and in line for a season for the ages. Given the drop of in fantasy scoring for RBs, he should still be a Top 5-10 RB (higher in PPR leagues), but I am not ready to suggest he will have a 2500/20 season.
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I hate it when people use a huge game against a player when looking at their overall numbers.  

 
JohnnyU said:
I hate it when people use a huge game against a player when looking at their overall numbers.  
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But when a player only plays a few games and people want to project a full season's worth of numbers, it distorts the projections.

Do you know how many games Barry Sanders had with 239 yfs and 3 TD? One. Kudos to Johnson for racking up big numbers that day, but the chances of him having a repeat performance ever again are slim.

To reiterate, I am not saying Johnson will bust. Nor am I suggesting he will have a disappointing season and he should still provide first round pick fantasy production. But I have seen several sites / people / experts / opinions suggesting that Johnson is in line this year for one of the greatest seasons in NFL history. Maybe that will happen, but I would guess he would be closer to 1500/10 than 2500/20. He could very easily be a Top 5 fantasy RB . . . yet based on the numbers some people are talking about that could still be a bit of a let down. 

 
abbottjamesr said:
Sorry for the rant, it wasn't directed at anybody in particular.  There seems to be some mega love for Johnson and it seems like if you post anything to the contrary many think you nuts or not seeing the obvious.  
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I'm a gig fan of his. I drafted him early second round in one dynasty and traded McCoy and Newton for him and Winston (with other spare parts mixed in) this offseason in another - so I'm heavily invested because I believe in his talent and situation. With that said I have pick 7 in my only redraft. If he falls to that spot (which I doubt) he's still not an automatic pick for me. The lack of a true track record is always a scary thing and people have already thrown out names like Hill and Anderson to hammer home that point. Still if you want to go RB in round 1, he's clearly as good a bet as almost anyone since they all have their warts and downside - and his upside is "league championship caliber" though at least.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Do you know how many games Barry Sanders had with 239 yfs and 3 TD? One. Kudos to Johnson for racking up big numbers that day, but the chances of him having a repeat performance ever again are slim.
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Sanders also probably has more yards for a loss in NFL history, but those big runs and big games made him a HOFer.

 
Anarchy99 said:
But when a player only plays a few games and people want to project a full season's worth of numbers, it distorts the projections.

Do you know how many games Barry Sanders had with 239 yfs and 3 TD? One. Kudos to Johnson for racking up big numbers that day, but the chances of him having a repeat performance ever again are slim.

To reiterate, I am not saying Johnson will bust. Nor am I suggesting he will have a disappointing season and he should still provide first round pick fantasy production. But I have seen several sites / people / experts / opinions suggesting that Johnson is in line this year for one of the greatest seasons in NFL history. Maybe that will happen, but I would guess he would be closer to 1500/10 than 2500/20. He could very easily be a Top 5 fantasy RB . . . yet based on the numbers some people are talking about that could still be a bit of a let down. 
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I have said this before and I will say it again.  Pretending a huge game never happened is just as flawed as including it in a small data set when projecting season long outcome. Maybe more so because it ignores replacement value of what a "lesser" game would have added to his stats.

But sticking with that theme; games like that have happened 23 times since 1995.  LeVeon Bell has "only" done it once, are we knocking him?  Tiki Barber? Clinton Portis? Fred Taylor?

Do you know how many times Barry Sanders went over 200 yards and scored multiple TDs during the last two years of his career? Three.  Is that not incredibly impressive or does it suck because it wasn't 229 & 3?  (he went over 200 total yards 7 times, 5x with multiple TDs). Mind you that how many times Barry Sanders did anything is irrelevant when talking about David Johnson but you brought it up so...why not?

The point isn't to say David Johnson is as good as any of those RBs but he is one of the very few who is capable of a game of those proportions.  A couple guys on the list of 229 & 3 never panned out (Jerome Harrison, anyone? Jahvid Best? Mike Anderson?) and DJ may very well end up with them when it's all said and done.  But the others read like a Who's Who? of great RBs over the last 20 years.  Foster, CJ2K, AP, LT, Alexander, Faulk, Priest, Dillon, Tiki, Fred, Portis.

 
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Anarchy99 said:
But when a player only plays a few games and people want to project a full season's worth of numbers, it distorts the projections.

Do you know how many games Barry Sanders had with 239 yfs and 3 TD? One. Kudos to Johnson for racking up big numbers that day, but the chances of him having a repeat performance ever again are slim.

To reiterate, I am not saying Johnson will bust. Nor am I suggesting he will have a disappointing season and he should still provide first round pick fantasy production. But I have seen several sites / people / experts / opinions suggesting that Johnson is in line this year for one of the greatest seasons in NFL history. Maybe that will happen, but I would guess he would be closer to 1500/10 than 2500/20. He could very easily be a Top 5 fantasy RB . . . yet based on the numbers some people are talking about that could still be a bit of a let down. 
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A RB scoring over 40 points (standard) in a game happens about 2.3 times per season. Over the last 10 years, it has been done by DJ, Lynch, Jonas Gray, Bell, Charles, Doug Martin, Foster (2), Best, McFadden, CJ2K, Jerome Harrison, Ronnie Brown, Westbrook, AP (2), LT (2), Addai, Bush, Steven Jackson, Tiki Barber. If you expand it to 20 years, you see that most of the names on the list were very good to great RBs (Priest, Alexander, Edge, Faulk, Portis, Barry, Fred Taylor, etc.)  So while I agree that the big game can't be used for projections, it is something that he could repeat and it's a stat that places him in excellent company. 

 
The bottom line is that in years past a player with Johnson's profile would not likely have been valued as a top half of the first round type player.  It's not years past.  There is no consensus top RB, WRs are going higher than I've ever seen (started playing in 98'), and the NFL and FF are just different as the league has steadily trended toward more passing and specialized usage of RBs.  

But let's not act like there are substantially more questions about Johnson than any of the other RBs.  There arent less, in many cases, either and if you like other RBs, players, over him then fine.  If you are concerned about volume, the recent trend of 2nd year RBs busting, whatever it is fine but let's just not act like these negatives are unique to him.  I can understand passing on him for some of the top WRs or if you just like Gurley, Miller, or a handful of other RBs better fine but again, concerns are everywhere at the RB position so if you like somebody for whatever reason then I say pull the trigger.  As I said in THE DJ thread, I like the situation and he more than passes my eyeball test.  I really like watching him play and he's in an offense that moves the ball and where his skill set fits very very well.

Frankly, I started my research very late this year--as in the other week--and I'm a little surprised/irritated that the FF community as a whole valued him as highly as I did.  But I don't think there is any question he's "worth" his ADP.  ANYthing can happen, ANY player can bust.  Situations change, injuries, lack of performance, etc.  I see some posts basically saying a player has to prove it for 2 years then they might be worth a 1st round pick.  To me that's behind the curving thinking that leads to missing out on some great FF seasons.  

I believe DJ is going to have a very good season and he's the number 1 RB on my board.  Not without risk but no player is, particularly at RB.  If your gut says otherwise, if you are risk adverse then don't draft him.  But there are a lot of us that will be.  We'll see how it goes.

 
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