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Fanduel Week 1 (1 Viewer)

karmarooster

karmarooster

Footballguy
NFL DFS is back.

I had a pretty bad experience last year due to going on a bad-streak right when the news of all the industry screw-ups hit the fan.  When DFS was outlawed in NY, it was actually a blessing.  I watched games without issue, and concentrated on my regular league, and had a great time.  But now that it's a new season I'm ready to turn the page and get back into it for 2016!

Looking over the salaries for any glaring inefficiencies is hard this time of year, at least until injuries or camp positional battles shake out, but a few things stood out:

QB:  pricing looks pretty on point, unlike last year where Tyrod was cheaper than most backups the first week.  I figure Case Keenum will start for LA against SF and is the cheapest clear starter right now at $6k, would hit value with 200 yards and a touch.  Haven't been able to find Siemian yet as they are on opening night, but probably don't want to go there even if he starts (unless its something absurd like $4500).  

RB: Lamar Miller is fairly cheap at home against Chicago as the 7th priced RB while generally having an ADP as top 4 RB for re-draft.

I like Gurley and AP as safe premium options despite their price tags.

WR: Same safe, premium play for A. Brown -- I think there's some logic in paying for the premium safe options early in the season (just realized he's up against Josh Norman...).

Some cheaper options at WR -- Marvin Jones. Mike Wallace and Rashard Matthews should feature as WR1/2 types for their teams but are down at $5600-5200 WR3 price range.  

TE:  A few punts:  Fleener, Ben Watson, Bennet, Clay, and Celek are all around 5k.   

K/Def: Gostkowski is generally always safe but there's the slight risk without Brady and a tough matchup against Arizona.  Tucker or Catanzaro may be safer.  For defense, Chiefs and Seahawks are both are home and neither is much above $5k.  Will probably go with the safer, more expensive options until there's a few weeks of data to play matchups here.  

 
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At QB I think there is some nice value in the 7K range, with some guys playing at home. I think Palmer, Cousins and Romo all have nice match ups and have a decent chance of hitting 3X.

RB: I think Williams and Elliot will be the chalk plays. I think Ingram is very nice at his price. I think Duke Johnson has a lot of upside with the number of touches the Browns want to get him. If I was going to pay up I think Gurley is the way to go, because their is a flip side to the Chip Kelly offense. The opposing offense also gets more plays which means a couple more touches probably for Gurley then he would normally get.

WR: I think Brown makes a great GPP option as he may lose some ownership because of Norman, but he will still get plenty of targets. I think Julio will be the most owned out of the top 3. Moncrief seems way to under priced at 6.2K. Sterling Shepard, Marvin Jones and Rishard Matthews all make interesting options in the 5K range. I think there are lots of good value in the 6K-7K range.

TE: Bennet is very nicely priced if you don't want to pay up for one of the top 2 options.

K/Def: It seems like Pits/Atl K are two of the more popular play. If JJ Watts plays then Houston becomes my favorite play. The only other teams I'm considering are SEA, KC & MIN.

 
There are some real nice options at QB. 

QB: Derek Carr, Philip Rivers, Tyrod Taylor, Brock Osweiler, & Alex Smith. RG3 isn't a bad play either @ Phi

RB: Gurley, AP, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Latavius Murray, I Crowell very cheap too.

WR: Hopkins @ CHI (Bears homer, we stink, injuries piling up), Keenan Allen / Watkins / Cooper all in the low 7k range. Stefon Diggs, Crabtree, Lockett look good against suspect defenses in the 6k range. Throw in Pryor against a sketchy Philly team, see if he can keep the long TD going.

TE: love Travis Kelce, Barnidge, and Rudolph against TEN.

Def: loving SEA @ home against Miami

 
I have checked our Power Salary with your initial ideas:

Case Keenum is a bit expensive on Fan Duel. If you play on Yahoo, he is 75% less than Fan Duel.  Fantasy Aces rates him more expensively than Fan Duel though.

Lamar Miller is a good play on FD, almost 20% less than on Draft Kings--however if you really like him, check out Fantasy Aces and save another 5%.

Fan Duel rates Marvin Jones lower than any of the other sites we rank. He is 17% less there than on Draft Kings and a whopping 50% less expensive on Fan Duel than he is on Fantasy Aces.

For your TE's Fleener, Bennett, and Clay are all less expensive on Fan Duel than anywhere else--with Fleener looking the best value vs the other sites.

Good luck this season!

 
karmarooster said:
Thanks, that's a pretty cool meta-analysis.  
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Thanks, and yes but it's not only pretty cool, it works.  We launched the site last year.  I personally did very well and other subscribers have written that they won good $$.  You do need to find the players you like, we just show you the best sites to play them (and where not to play them). Here is a blog I wrote the other day about value:  http://www.dailyfantasypower.com/blog  We don't do projections, just math. 

 
Im just working on my placeholder settings for Fanduel.  The cash lineup Ive been looking at the hardest so far is

Case Keenum 6000
Adrian Peterson 8200
Lamar Miller 7600
Julio Jones 9000
Golden Tate 6900
Kamar Aiken 6300
Delanie Walker 6500
Dustin Hopkins 4500
Seattle 5000

After a profitable season last year I got lucky and spiking a finish on Fanduels 100k baseball GPP this season Ive actually got a bankroll going into this year.  Im planning on running with 3 cash lineups and about 100 GPPs.  Probably about an 80/20 split. I feel like Ive got a good handle on GPP theory, but the cash contests continue to kick my bet in every sport.  We talked about this a bit last year, do the experienced players think cash can be beat long term?  Im having my doubts the longer I play across sports.

I am learning my lessons though.  Always pay down at QB for cash, which is why Keenum is looking like my preferred QB.  Romo was the other guy I was planning on using, but his disaster of a game last week and the fat Romo pictures have me concerned.  Under $8000 (which is my new ceiling for considering a QB for cash) we're looking at maybe Carson Palmer, Derrick Carr, Matt Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning, and Tyrod Taylor?  Does anyone have any strong opinions against any of those guys?

 
You can find a lot of good information out there on building cash lineups but a quick summary is find the cheapest running backs getting large volume in good matchups (think Latavius Murry week 1), pay up for WR and fill in the rest.

Keenums floor is something dreadful like 150 yards 0td 1int. Learned my lesson last year with bum QBs in cash (Foles). 

 
Yeah, I think min price for QB last year was $4500.  The Dak cash lineup I have right now is

Dak
Gurley
Williams
AJ Green
Julio
Matthews
Zach Miller
Vinateri
KC

 
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Is that Rashard or Jordan Matthews?  If Rashard, I like him as a solid value play in the cheap WR3 range (along with marvin and mike wallace).  

For Deangello, Washington secretly had a pretty good run defense last year, no?  I tend to favor Lamar Miller, Mark Ingram and Matt Forte in that same value range.  With so little info to go on week 1, I'm looking for lots of home matchups (Todd Gurley not withstanding because the SF defense is/was so weak).  For the same reason, while I like McCoy in general due to the Karlos release making him a workload monster, I don't like week 1 at Baltimore.  

AJ is on the road against Revis... isn't that something to still avoid?  Similar top end WRs with home matchups include Julio, Allen Robinson, Hopkins, and a bit lower, Marshall.  

This cash LU is exclusively made of home plays (and I think mostly favorites?):

Smith

Miller, Forte

Julio, BMarsh, Maclin

Fleener, Tucker, Chiefs

 
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My recollection on Washington was that they started out the year terrible on both offense and defense, but towards the end of the year they ended up not allowing too many DFS points to opposing RBs.  Just looking back at the game logs I think it was a combination of game script and playing against bad RBs more than actual talent/scheme though.  In alot of those games they were seeing more than 2:1 pass plays to rush plays.  Their secondary was just terrible.  On the year they allowed 4.8 YPC though, second worse in the NFL.  Josh Norman may help patch the secondary, but hes not fixing 4.8 YPC.  I like Miller, Ingram, and Forte too.  As of right now I plan on having exposure to each across the 3 cash lineups I plan on playing.  But, I want Williams too.  $7100 is just too cheap.

The Matthews is Jordan.  Obviously I need to know hes completely healthy, but assuming he is $6600 is far too cheap for the #1 option against the Browns.
 

For season long I am off the Bengals, but if you use the "opposing defense has not seen Andy Dalton in 2 years rule" then hes got the green light week 1.  And if he has the green light then AJ definitely does.  Without Eifert, even with Revis youve got to think (I do anyway) AJ sees 10+ targets.

 
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There seems to be enough value all over you shouldn't need to play Dak in cash. It is worth have gpp exposure to him. 

Jordan Matthews hasn't practiced in 3 weeks. No thanks for a cash lineups. Doug Baldwin at home against the shaky Dolphins secondary is much safer with plenty of upside. 

 
I don't see any screaming value at the QB position other than Dak.  He's a full thousand cheaper than Keenum and Siemian (and will likely outscore them straight up), and backups like Schaub, Cassell, Stanton.  Overall QBs seem to be very well-priced, with only a couple I like due to match-up: Wilson at home, ASmith at home, Carr against the Saints (but don't love the road factor).  And Dak at $5k ... in the preseason, he's put up 15, 30, and 10 points, so 3x, 6x and 2x.  The 10 points/2x outing was against Seattle's mostly first team in the pre-season warmup.  NYG defense does not scare me, but even if he struggles and throws 2 picks, he should approach value just based on yardage and scrambling.  If he runs one in, he's already a week winner.  A few weeks from now when there's some game film on him, I'm sure he'll have some struggles.  But not yet.  

Agreed on Jmatt... he makes me wanna barf at that price.  Much prefer Maclin and Baldwin in the mid-range.  Floyd might become a must-play if JBrown is out.  

Mike Wallace, Marvin Jones, and to a lesser extent, Rashard Matthews are starting and/or de facto WR1s that scream value (Smith just now coming back and is iffy, Marvin 1a/1b with Tate, and Rashard signed to be the top option and Kendall Wright has been iffy, Sharpe just a rookie).  For a GPP play, any love for Pryor?  He's looked awesome and based on pre-season has to be a lock for a 40 yard TD bomb, amiright?  

 
@freeannyongI will definitely concede that Matthews is a bit risky.  If hes not practicing at full speed soon Ill pivot too, but there are so many options in the 6000s its an easy pivot.

I whole hardheartedly disagree on Dak though.  For that price youre looking for 200 yards and a TD with an INT.  Against Seattle or Arizona on the road, ok I may not pull the trigger, but at home against the Giants its a no brainer.

@karmarooster Everything Ive been reading is that Tajae is looking like he may be the WR #1 on the Titans already.  He is a rookie and hasnt played a real game yet, but even if he isnt the Vikings have a good defense.  You have to figure Delanie is seeing a good % of the targets in the offense too..  Rishard scares me like J-Matt scares you apparently.  Great price, but no thanks.

Im just going to list off the guys in the 6000's I think are playable for cash. 

Michael Floyd 6900
Erik Decker 6900
Golden Tate 6900
TY Hilton 6800
Jeremy Maclin 6800
Doug Baldwin 6700
DeSean Jackson 6600
Jarvis Landry 6600
Jordan Matthews 6600

I do like Pryor for GPPs.  I plan on playing him mostly in superstacks with RG3, Barnidge, and probably Crowell.

 
NixonMask said:
@freeannyongI will definitely concede that Matthews is a bit risky.  If hes not practicing at full speed soon Ill pivot too, but there are so many options in the 6000s its an easy pivot.

I whole hardheartedly disagree on Dak though.  For that price youre looking for 200 yards and a TD with an INT.  Against Seattle or Arizona on the road, ok I may not pull the trigger, but at home against the Giants its a no brainer.

@karmarooster Everything Ive been reading is that Tajae is looking like he may be the WR #1 on the Titans already.  He is a rookie and hasnt played a real game yet, but even if he isnt the Vikings have a good defense.  You have to figure Delanie is seeing a good % of the targets in the offense too..  Rishard scares me like J-Matt scares you apparently.  Great price, but no thanks.

Im just going to list off the guys in the 6000's I think are playable for cash. 

Michael Floyd 6900
Erik Decker 6900
Golden Tate 6900
TY Hilton 6800
Jeremy Maclin 6800
Doug Baldwin 6700
DeSean Jackson 6600
Jarvis Landry 6600
Jordan Matthews 6600

I do like Pryor for GPPs.  I plan on playing him mostly in superstacks with RG3, Barnidge, and probably Crowell.
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I can remain open to the idea of using Dak in cash, as some recent spread quarterbacks have had great debuts.   I will have to build some lineups with him and see how they look.   I am a little scared of his floor but being at home against a weak defense might push it over the edge.

As far as the WR list, I am on board with all of those except for Jackson and Matthews.   Jackson isn't a guy I ever like to play in cash as his targets are typically quite low when compared to the others on the list.

 
FWIW, Dak is the runaway top spot on the newly released value charts, both under "Value" and "H-Value".  Dodds and MT put him at about 15 points.

Might be all-in for me.  

 
DeSean is a bit risky, but hes worth keeping in mind as an option.  Its possible Matt Jones isnt ready, if that happens their RB week 1 isnt even on the roster right now.  Last year, in games that the Redskins lost Kirk averaged 35.5 attempts, compared to 32.7 when they won.  Last year (and he was hurt for part of the year) DeSean averaged 7 targets in games they lost compared to 5.4 in games they won.  The Steelers were #30 in the NFL in passing yards allowed last year. 

 
NixonMask said:
DeSean is a bit risky, but hes worth keeping in mind as an option.  Its possible Matt Jones isnt ready, if that happens their RB week 1 isnt even on the roster right now.  Last year, in games that the Redskins lost Kirk averaged 35.5 attempts, compared to 32.7 when they won.  Last year (and he was hurt for part of the year) DeSean averaged 7 targets in games they lost compared to 5.4 in games they won.  The Steelers were #30 in the NFL in passing yards allowed last year. 
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For all of these reasons, Reed is not a bad play at home even at his price of 7400.  Kelce is another good option 1000 less.  

I might throw Desean into a GPP but nothing else.    

 
Time to gear up for the NFL. Did pretty well in the NBA for a while then gave a chunk back when my schedule got such that I couldn't make late moves when lineup's were announced. MLB, as always for me, has been just a crapshoot -- lost some but not too painful. I have enjoyed Fantasy Aces during MLB, may piddle there some in NFL this year. 

It's really tough for me to play a ton early. I don't have any real confidence in my game scripts yet. On the flip side, I figure everyone else is working w/ the same handicap. How do you guys approach early-season to play when roles are not well-established?

 
karmarooster said:
FWIW, Dak is the runaway top spot on the newly released value charts, both under "Value" and "H-Value".  Dodds and MT put him at about 15 points.

Might be all-in for me.  
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Here's my worry about Dak: pre-season is to regular season in the NFL as division I-AA is to the SEC in college football. I'm a big Dallas fan and like what flashes I've seen from Dak. I like his OL, RB, TE, and WR. But man, that defense is bad and he's going to have more pressure on him than he's ever imagined. Is he ready to be "the man" AND have to throw it 30+ times? Maybe he thrives on it, but I worry that he'll wilt. I reached the conclusion last year that you simply can't win on FD w/ a turd score @ QB, even in cash play. Too many QBs score too many points to allow you to post a single-digit score up and have a chance to win consistently. 

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
Here's my worry about Dak: pre-season is to regular season in the NFL as division I-AA is to the SEC in college football. I'm a big Dallas fan and like what flashes I've seen from Dak. I like his OL, RB, TE, and WR. But man, that defense is bad and he's going to have more pressure on him than he's ever imagined. Is he ready to be "the man" AND have to throw it 30+ times? Maybe he thrives on it, but I worry that he'll wilt. I reached the conclusion last year that you simply can't win on FD w/ a turd score @ QB, even in cash play. Too many QBs score too many points to allow you to post a single-digit score up and have a chance to win consistently. 
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Dak already played against SEC defenses, so he should be good, right?  :banned:

I take your point but he's got such a cake-walk schedule to begin the season, plus all the pre-season to install an offense that works to his strengths in the shotgun, designed scrambles, zone-read, bootlegs, etc. and only ask him to make 1 or 2 reads.  In 2-3 weeks when defenses are able to scheme for him, yeah, he's going to hit a bit of a wall.  But with a strong running game, week defense, and demonstrated ability to move the offense, I think he's primed to roll in Week 1 at home vs. the Giants.  

Winston put up 14 points in his 'horrible' debut last year (200 yards, 2 tds, 2 picks and 2 fumbles).  We know that Cam and Mariotta had monster debuts, of course Dak isn't a 1st overall pick prospect.  

Further reading:  http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dak-prescott-is-not-your-average-week-1-starting-quarterback/

Some more comparable week 1 rookie debuts:

Derek Carr - 150/2

Geno Smith - 250/1/1 + 47 rushing

EJ Manuel - 150/2 + 23 rushing

 
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Tennessee_ATO said:
Time to gear up for the NFL. Did pretty well in the NBA for a while then gave a chunk back when my schedule got such that I couldn't make late moves when lineup's were announced. MLB, as always for me, has been just a crapshoot -- lost some but not too painful. I have enjoyed Fantasy Aces during MLB, may piddle there some in NFL this year. 

It's really tough for me to play a ton early. I don't have any real confidence in my game scripts yet. On the flip side, I figure everyone else is working w/ the same handicap. How do you guys approach early-season to play when roles are not well-established?
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Everything I read, and its reasonable, is to wait about 3-5 weeks before expanding the percentage of your bankroll your putting at risk.  If youre risk adverse its the smart move.  Right now were all guessing.  But, thats where I think I have an advantage over the field.  Right now, yes I may get burnt by bad information.  It will suck and I will kick myself for it.  But, I feel like I have a much stronger handle on game theory, and DFS theory than the average player.  As the information level increases by week 4 that edge doesnt matter as much.  Game selection matters alot more right now too.  If you look at Fanduel contests (and I think most sites have done this now) theres a star next to successful high volume players.  Before I enter any contest I scroll through every page, Im not actually counting, but if Im seeing anywhere near 50% stars Ill pass on the contest.  Right now alot of the same 30-40 degenerates are in most contests, its the other 70-80 players in the contest that make it appealing or not.

And on a side note.  I really hate Condia.  What is that guy doing sitting in on $2 single entry cash contests?  Its rhetorical, so no need to answer, but WTF.




Edit:  On Dak, Im pretty sure this was from On the Couch.  Dak is going to have some growing pains.  In about 4 weeks when detailed scouting reports start getting implemented by opposing defenses hes going to have some rough outings.  Week 1 though, against a BAD defense, at home, that has never seen him before theres every reason to believe he will produce atleast replacement level production.  At $5000 thats all youre looking for

 
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Jamaal Charles isnt starting week 1 now.  May see limited play, but that leaves Spencer Ware at $5400 as a crazy value.  I also saw that the Bears top 3 corners are all expected to miss week 1.  They were already terrible.  The Osweiler/Miller/Hopkins/Fuller superstack is looking pretty good right about now

 
karmarooster said:
Winston put up 14 points in his 'horrible' debut last year (200 yards, 2 tds, 2 picks and 2 fumbles).  We know that Cam and Mariotta had monster debuts, of course Dak isn't a 1st overall pick prospect.  

Further reading:  http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dak-prescott-is-not-your-average-week-1-starting-quarterback/

Some more comparable week 1 rookie debuts:

Derek Carr - 150/2

Geno Smith - 250/1/1 + 47 rushing

EJ Manuel - 150/2 + 23 rushing
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How many of those scores are good enough to win with? I don't think the "x times salary" approach works with cheap QBs. I think 150/2, 200/2/2/2, and 150/2 + 23 all put a ton of pressure on you to hit on almost every other position. I certainly don't think I've got some grand insight on this, just want to bounce it around. I just think you can survive a turd @ WR, RB, or TE way easier than you can at QB. Lots of "I think" in there I know.

This is TATO citing TATO, so don't think I've got some wonderful insight. The approach to young cheapies for many has seemed to be "he'll probably be good enough and if he tanks it's just $5000 and he'll still approach 2x value". My argument is that the second part of that is flawed because it probably means you're in real trouble, even in a double up. If you think Dak is good for 16+, then you absolutely should play him -- you almost have to. I think the guys who don't necessarily think Dak is going score that well, but don't care because he's so cheap are making a mistake. 

 
Joe T said:
White star with blue border checking in.

:thumbup:
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Youre the kind of shark Im talking about. :shark:

Tennessee_ATO said:
Here's my worry about Dak: pre-season is to regular season in the NFL as division I-AA is to the SEC in college football. I'm a big Dallas fan and like what flashes I've seen from Dak. I like his OL, RB, TE, and WR. But man, that defense is bad and he's going to have more pressure on him than he's ever imagined. Is he ready to be "the man" AND have to throw it 30+ times? Maybe he thrives on it, but I worry that he'll wilt. I reached the conclusion last year that you simply can't win on FD w/ a turd score @ QB, even in cash play. Too many QBs score too many points to allow you to post a single-digit score up and have a chance to win consistently. 
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So what is Daks floor?

lets assume Dak throws 33 times week 1.  That was the average number of attempts the Cowboys had last year.  Lets also assume he completes 63% of his passes, or 20.79 completions for the game.  I actually think that number is low, but again its the Cowboys number from last year.  Dak is going to have a dumb downed offense with lots of short to intermediary passes week one, which should boost his completion percentage.  Lets also assume the average completion goes for 10.72 yards (thats Cassels number from last year).  That gives him 222 yards.   222*.04 = 8.88 points

Then lets assume he rushes for 17.6 yards.  Thats his average in the preseason through three games.  Considering he only played parts of the game that number seems low as an expectation, but that makes it a good number as a floor.  17.6*.01 = 1.76 points

That gives him 10.64 points.

Lets assume he throws one TD, that gets him to 14.64 points

Then lets assume he throws 3 INTs, which drops him to 8.64 points.  And he loses a fumble, 6.64 points.  That is a really bad floor.

And why am I playing him anyway?

lets assume he throws 35 times week 1.  And averages 67% for 23.45 completions.  At 10.72 YPC that gets him to 251.38 yards.  * .04 = 10.05 points

lets assume he rushes for 35 yards * .1 = 3.5 points, for a total of 13.55 points

Plus 2 TDs gets him to 21.55 points, minus 2 INTs gets him to 17.55 points.  That would give him 3.51x.  You can even drop a TD and add a turnover and hes still at 11.55 points for 2.31x.  Realistically I think he ends up somewhere between the 3.51x number and the 2.31x number.



There are alot of good QB options week 1 for cash.  Dak, Carr, Osweiler, Cousins, Palmer.  You really dont need to play the guy, especially with DeAngelo, Marvin Jones and the other cheap WRs, and now Spencer Ware at steep discounts.  As usual I am over exposing myself though, but spreading that exposure across three cash lineups.  1 will be a Dak lineup with the premium high floor guys at other positions.

 
Hey guys, back for another season.  Good to see so mamy back!

Still working from a 10,000ft view of Week 1, but targeting players against the Colts and Bears defenses.

With  the Bradford trade, I'm wondering if the Philly vs Cleveland game might have a 7-3 final score.  Good game to pick a cheap defense.

 
Just getting back to the DFS forum now that the start of the season is just days away. A few thoughts: 

Liking the Redskins/Steelers game this week for any slate. Vegas has this game tied for top over/under at 51. Not sure that Pittsburgh's DEF has improved that much and it seemed like they got lit up through the air a lot last year. Having said that, the Steelers also have a potent offense, even w/ Bryant & Bell suspended. And anybody remember the Steelers/Seahawks game last Thanksgiving weekend? I could see that happening again. Two sleepers for tournaments that I will probably toss in: Jesse James & Samie Coates. 

Any thoughts? I welcome other opinions - differing or not. Maybe someone else's perspective will change my mind. 

 
reel_smooth said:
Just getting back to the DFS forum now that the start of the season is just days away. A few thoughts: 

Liking the Redskins/Steelers game this week for any slate. Vegas has this game tied for top over/under at 51. Not sure that Pittsburgh's DEF has improved that much and it seemed like they got lit up through the air a lot last year. Having said that, the Steelers also have a potent offense, even w/ Bryant & Bell suspended. And anybody remember the Steelers/Seahawks game last Thanksgiving weekend? I could see that happening again. Two sleepers for tournaments that I will probably toss in: Jesse James & Samie Coates. 

Any thoughts? I welcome other opinions - differing or not. Maybe someone else's perspective will change my mind. 
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I agree but keep your eye on the weather, hearing it might be nasty.  Its still a week out, so predictions aren't too accurate yet.

 
Taking the advice of targeting the PHI/CLE game for defenses:

Dak

Dwill/Ware

ABrown/Julio/ODB

Kelce

Crosby/CLE

I don't think I've ever been able to field a linup with the consensus top 3 WRs at the same time.  

 
Im at about the same spot as you are Karma.  Im pretty sure Im rolling with this for cash


Dak Prescott


5000


Spencer Ware


5400


DeAngelo Williams


7100


Antonio Brown


9300


Julio Jones


9000


Amari Cooper


7100


Jordan Reed


7400


Chris Boswell


4600


Seattle


5000



Alternatively, you can swap Cooper with ODB and Reed with Fleener.  After watching the Jets/NYG game preseason gameI am just a bit worried about a slow start for that offense though.  None of them were on the same page

 
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Looking forward to another year with FanDuel.

I won about $3,500 playing last year. I never won that much gambling vs. the spread in the NFL. I placed a $50 bet in last year's Super bowl, and it was dull. That just might be the last game I ever bet vs. the spread. FanDuel is tons better.

 
Players that represent good value this week:

Melvin Gordon
Deangelo Williams
Spencer Ware
Ryan Matthews
TY Hilton & Donte Moncrief
Amari Cooper
Marvin Jones
Martellus Bennett
Virgil Green

 
Anyone jumping on the Weeks 1-4 Survivor contest?  It was a lot of fun last year, although my teams all got knocked out in the week prior to the cash cut-off.  It's unusual to have it during the first 4 weeks though with all of the uncertainty at the beginning of the season.  

This year, it's 62% cutoff Week 1, 66.7% cutoff Week 2, 52.6% cutoff Week 3, and then everyone who makes it to Week 4 is in the cash (min payout $25 up to $10k for 1st).  So never a cut-line higher than 50/50.

I like the low cut-lines in weeks 1 and 2, and the fact that everyone is in the cash week 4.  What I learned last year, though, is that its much harder than a typical 50/50 in the later weeks because everyone who's still alive is a pretty good cash game player.

There's a max of 50 entries which would cost $600 at $12 each.  If you make the first cut in Week 1, you are technically already in the equity, as the $100k prize pool divided by 6,000 players remaining from the initial pool of 9,633 yields about $16.67 in "equity"... but there's no money in your pocket unless you last to week 4.  Last year I had 'equity' for a while but ended up with no cash.

I'm assuming they'll run another, longer Survivor contest similar to last year after week 4 (likely weeks 5 through 9 or 10).  

 
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karmarooster said:
Anyone jumping on the Weeks 1-4 Survivor contest?  It was a lot of fun last year, although my teams all got knocked out in the week prior to the cash cut-off.  It's unusual to have it during the first 4 weeks though with all of the uncertainty at the beginning of the season.  

This year, it's 62% cutoff Week 1, 66.7% cutoff Week 2, 52.6% cutoff Week 3, and then everyone who makes it to Week 4 is in the cash (min payout $25 up to $10k for 1st).  So never a cut-line higher than 50/50.

I like the low cut-lines in weeks 1 and 2, and the fact that everyone is in the cash week 4.  What I learned last year, though, is that its much harder than a typical 50/50 in the later weeks because everyone who's still alive is a pretty good cash game player.

There's a max of 50 entries which would cost $600 at $12 each.  If you make the first cut in Week 1, you are technically already in the equity, as the $100k prize pool divided by 6,000 players remaining from the initial pool of 9,633 yields about $16.67 in "equity"... but there's no money in your pocket unless you last to week 4.  Last year I had 'equity' for a while but ended up with no cash.

I'm assuming they'll run another, longer Survivor contest similar to last year after week 4 (likely weeks 5 through 9 or 10).  
Click to expand...
This sounds fun. I don't see the contest in the lobby. How do I find it?

 
karmarooster said:
Anyone jumping on the Weeks 1-4 Survivor contest?  It was a lot of fun last year, although my teams all got knocked out in the week prior to the cash cut-off.  It's unusual to have it during the first 4 weeks though with all of the uncertainty at the beginning of the season.  

This year, it's 62% cutoff Week 1, 66.7% cutoff Week 2, 52.6% cutoff Week 3, and then everyone who makes it to Week 4 is in the cash (min payout $25 up to $10k for 1st).  So never a cut-line higher than 50/50.

I like the low cut-lines in weeks 1 and 2, and the fact that everyone is in the cash week 4.  What I learned last year, though, is that its much harder than a typical 50/50 in the later weeks because everyone who's still alive is a pretty good cash game player.

There's a max of 50 entries which would cost $600 at $12 each.  If you make the first cut in Week 1, you are technically already in the equity, as the $100k prize pool divided by 6,000 players remaining from the initial pool of 9,633 yields about $16.67 in "equity"... but there's no money in your pocket unless you last to week 4.  Last year I had 'equity' for a while but ended up with no cash.

I'm assuming they'll run another, longer Survivor contest similar to last year after week 4 (likely weeks 5 through 9 or 10).  
Click to expand...
I love survivors. I will almost certainly enter several times, but won't approach 50. Final number will depend on my FD bankroll for the season. I'm thinking about playing some on FA this year and haven't decided on how I'll split my bankroll. 

 
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