ZWK
Footballguy
Doug Martin vs. LeSean McCoy looks like an interesting comparison in terms of dynasty value.
Talent / Career Production: Edge to McCoy. He has more Pro Bowls & All Pros, better career stats, and a better reputation.
Recent Production: Edge to Martin. He had an All Pro 2015 season with excellent rushing numbers, while McCoy only had a Pro Bowl season with good numbers. Advanced stats like DVOA and PFF grades basically agree. They both had down years in 2014, and Martin's was much worse (51 YFS per game with terrible efficiency numbers), which shrinks Martin's edge.
Age & Health: Edge to Martin, who is 6 months younger (born Jan 1989 vs. July 1988 for McCoy). They have both been relatively healthy, though McCoy missed some time last year with hamstring & MCL injuries and Martin's poor production in 2013 & 2014 might have been partially related to playing through injuries.
Team's Commitment: Slight edge to McCoy. McCoy signed a big contract with Buffalo a year ago, and Martin signed a slightly less big contract with Tampa this offseason. McCoy's contract had significantly more guaranteed money ($26M vs. $15M), so it would be harder for Buffalo to move on anytime soon even though the contract is a year older. Both teams are talking up their lead RB.
Situation / Competition: Edge to McCoy. Both look like workhorse RBs. Charles Sims looks to be tougher competition for snaps than any RB on Buffalo, though Buffalo has been drafting a lot of late-round RBs so some competition might emerge (as it briefly did from Karlos Williams). Buffalo has a much better offensive line, according to PFF. Tyrod Taylor & Jameis Winston were both new starters last year who showed the potential to lead a good offense. Winston seems more promising but Taylor's running ability helps open things up for the RB.
Fantasy Strengths: Edge to McCoy in PPR, Martin in non-PPR. McCoy gets used more heavily in the passing game. Martin gets the goal-line work, while McCoy lost a lot of those carries to Karlos Williams last year (we'll see what happens going forward). Last year, they both had 15.1 ppg in PPR, while Martin outscored McCoy by 0.7 ppg in non-PPR.
Off-Field Issues: Edge to Martin. McCoy was involved in a bar fight this offseason, but nothing came of it.
Redraft Rankings: Slight edge to Martin. Martin is ahead of McCoy in 5 of the 6 sources on the FBG ADP page, by 4 spots on average. On average, FBG's 4 projectors have Martin projected for 0.3 ppg more in non-PPR and McCoy projected for 0.2 ppg more in PPR (Dodds favors McCoy in both, Wood favors Martin in both, and Henry & Tremblay are split by format).
Question 1: Who do you like more in dynasty?
Question 2: Why is Martin so far ahead of McCoy in most dynasty rankings?
Talent / Career Production: Edge to McCoy. He has more Pro Bowls & All Pros, better career stats, and a better reputation.
Recent Production: Edge to Martin. He had an All Pro 2015 season with excellent rushing numbers, while McCoy only had a Pro Bowl season with good numbers. Advanced stats like DVOA and PFF grades basically agree. They both had down years in 2014, and Martin's was much worse (51 YFS per game with terrible efficiency numbers), which shrinks Martin's edge.
Age & Health: Edge to Martin, who is 6 months younger (born Jan 1989 vs. July 1988 for McCoy). They have both been relatively healthy, though McCoy missed some time last year with hamstring & MCL injuries and Martin's poor production in 2013 & 2014 might have been partially related to playing through injuries.
Team's Commitment: Slight edge to McCoy. McCoy signed a big contract with Buffalo a year ago, and Martin signed a slightly less big contract with Tampa this offseason. McCoy's contract had significantly more guaranteed money ($26M vs. $15M), so it would be harder for Buffalo to move on anytime soon even though the contract is a year older. Both teams are talking up their lead RB.
Situation / Competition: Edge to McCoy. Both look like workhorse RBs. Charles Sims looks to be tougher competition for snaps than any RB on Buffalo, though Buffalo has been drafting a lot of late-round RBs so some competition might emerge (as it briefly did from Karlos Williams). Buffalo has a much better offensive line, according to PFF. Tyrod Taylor & Jameis Winston were both new starters last year who showed the potential to lead a good offense. Winston seems more promising but Taylor's running ability helps open things up for the RB.
Fantasy Strengths: Edge to McCoy in PPR, Martin in non-PPR. McCoy gets used more heavily in the passing game. Martin gets the goal-line work, while McCoy lost a lot of those carries to Karlos Williams last year (we'll see what happens going forward). Last year, they both had 15.1 ppg in PPR, while Martin outscored McCoy by 0.7 ppg in non-PPR.
Off-Field Issues: Edge to Martin. McCoy was involved in a bar fight this offseason, but nothing came of it.
Redraft Rankings: Slight edge to Martin. Martin is ahead of McCoy in 5 of the 6 sources on the FBG ADP page, by 4 spots on average. On average, FBG's 4 projectors have Martin projected for 0.3 ppg more in non-PPR and McCoy projected for 0.2 ppg more in PPR (Dodds favors McCoy in both, Wood favors Martin in both, and Henry & Tremblay are split by format).
Question 1: Who do you like more in dynasty?
Question 2: Why is Martin so far ahead of McCoy in most dynasty rankings?