Doug Martin vs. LeSean McCoy (Dynasty) (1 Viewer)

Doug Martin vs. LeSean McCoy looks like an interesting comparison in terms of dynasty value.

Talent / Career Production: Edge to McCoy. He has more Pro Bowls & All Pros, better career stats, and a better reputation.

Recent Production: Edge to Martin. He had an All Pro 2015 season with excellent rushing numbers, while McCoy only had a Pro Bowl season with good numbers. Advanced stats like DVOA and PFF grades basically agree. They both had down years in 2014, and Martin's was much worse (51 YFS per game with terrible efficiency numbers), which shrinks Martin's edge.

Age & Health: Edge to Martin, who is 6 months younger (born Jan 1989 vs. July 1988 for McCoy). They have both been relatively healthy, though McCoy missed some time last year with hamstring & MCL injuries and Martin's poor production in 2013 & 2014 might have been partially related to playing through injuries.

Team's Commitment: Slight edge to McCoy. McCoy signed a big contract with Buffalo a year ago, and Martin signed a slightly less big contract with Tampa this offseason. McCoy's contract had significantly more guaranteed money ($26M vs. $15M), so it would be harder for Buffalo to move on anytime soon even though the contract is a year older. Both teams are talking up their lead RB.

Situation / Competition: Edge to McCoy. Both look like workhorse RBs. Charles Sims looks to be tougher competition for snaps than any RB on Buffalo, though Buffalo has been drafting a lot of late-round RBs so some competition might emerge (as it briefly did from Karlos Williams). Buffalo has a much better offensive line, according to PFF. Tyrod Taylor & Jameis Winston were both new starters last year who showed the potential to lead a good offense. Winston seems more promising but Taylor's running ability helps open things up for the RB.

Fantasy Strengths: Edge to McCoy in PPR, Martin in non-PPR. McCoy gets used more heavily in the passing game. Martin gets the goal-line work, while McCoy lost a lot of those carries to Karlos Williams last year (we'll see what happens going forward). Last year, they both had 15.1 ppg in PPR, while Martin outscored McCoy by 0.7 ppg in non-PPR.

Off-Field Issues: Edge to Martin. McCoy was involved in a bar fight this offseason, but nothing came of it.

Redraft Rankings: Slight edge to Martin. Martin is ahead of McCoy in 5 of the 6 sources on the FBG ADP page, by 4 spots on average. On average, FBG's 4 projectors have Martin projected for 0.3 ppg more in non-PPR and McCoy projected for 0.2 ppg more in PPR (Dodds favors McCoy in both, Wood favors Martin in both, and Henry & Tremblay are split by format).

Question 1: Who do you like more in dynasty?

Question 2: Why is Martin so far ahead of McCoy in most dynasty rankings?

ZWK said:

Question 2: Why is Martin so far ahead of McCoy in most dynasty rankings?

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I think most of the dynasty gap boils down to:  1664 carries over 7 seasons (McCoy) vs. 868 carries over 4 seasons (Martin).  Martin may not be much younger than McCoy but he has only half the NFL mileage and most dynasty owners overestimate the age dropoff.

Also, recency.  McCoy just spent an injured season barely fending off sub-par competition, whereas Martin just had a bounceback year in which Sims wasn't the threat to touches he'd been expected to be, as Martin nearly won a rushing title.  The disappearance of KWilliams may see McCoy start to creep closer in the rankings, but I think the extra wear on his tread and Martin's superior 2015 numbers will keep Martin comfortably ahead.

Perhaps it's mileage. Before I read this I assumed Martin was more than 6 months younger. Perhaps it's the fact that McCoy has been given a lot of work and seems to miss some time every year now. He's the new Arian foster- when he's in he will be a top rb, but it's not a matter of "if" he'll miss time, but "when". Martin has had his injuries as well but seems like he should have more carries left in the tank. 

Thanks for posting the actual carry total @arodin, I was too lazy to look it up. 

Martin entered the league as an older rookie and hasn't been playing as long, so there is a perception that Martin is younger than he is.  Even being aware of Martin's old rookie age I was surprised to see that Martin was only 6 months younger.

Another factor I think is that ADP accounts for the their ADP through the whole offseason, right?  I would imagine now that Karlos Williams is gone that ADP gap will start to shrink some over the next month.

Lastly, despite their contracts the Bucs seem to have shown a bigger commitment to Martin than the Bills have to Shady.  Even prior to all the Williams debacles the Bills drafted another RB, and have now brought multiple RBs in.  This coming behind a year where it looked like Shady could be in possible, danger of losing his future starting gig to Williams, while Sims was pretty clearly a complimentary piece.

I think it gives a false perception if you only compare their ADP number.  Martin is 8th overall RB, Shady is 14th overall.  Seems like a decent sized gap, but in reality it's very minor.  If you put RB's in tiers, they are probably in the same tier.  There are just 7 or so guys in that tier, so it's really a matter of preference.  I think more people prefer Martin for the obvious: He is younger(even if only 6 months), has less wear on the tires, and just signed a hefty long term contract and no off field concerns.  It's enough to give him a slight edge over Shady, but let's be honest, any RB being drafted in the 7-14 range could finish 7th overall.  And there is only a 1ppg difference separating the top of the tier from the bottom.

I would take shady handily over Martin because he is absolutely critical in their system and the team will use him extensively.  Assuming both players remain healthy, there is almost zero chance shady isn't impactful every single week where Martin, on the other hand, could find games where he is overlooked, depending on the game and opponent.  

So, I'd draft shady based on points per week. 

Shutout said:

I would take shady handily over Martin because he is absolutely critical in their system and the team will use him extensively.  Assuming both players remain healthy, there is almost zero chance shady isn't impactful every single week where Martin, on the other hand, could find games where he is overlooked, depending on the game and opponent.  

So, I'd draft shady based on points per week. 

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Even in dynasty with a 2-3 year future outlook in mind?

Snorkelson said:

Perhaps it's mileage. Before I read this I assumed Martin was more than 6 months younger. Perhaps it's the fact that McCoy has been given a lot of work and seems to miss some time every year now. He's the new Arian foster- when he's in he will be a top rb, but it's not a matter of "if" he'll miss time, but "when". Martin has had his injuries as well but seems like he should have more carries left in the tank. 

Thanks for posting the actual carry total @arodin, I was too lazy to look it up. 

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Both Foster and McCoy entered the league in 2009.  In that time span, McCoy has missed 8 games while Foster has missed 38...that's quite a difference. Also Doug Martin has already missed 15 games in his 4 year career comparing to the 8 year career of Shady.

Martin will be around longer in the NFL by a couple of years but Shady is a premier RB in the NFL and has proven it.  I'll take top end production from a RB in dynasty for 2-3 years over average production from another RB for 5-6 years any day.