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Left for dead (1 Viewer)

oldmanhawkins

Footballguy
Every year there seems to be a player or two that resurrect their careers after the fantasy community has already begun shoveling dirt on their graves.  I'm not talking about guys that come out of nowhere to put up monster seasons, like Gary Barnidge or Doug Baldwin.  I'm looking for players that showed off their potential earlier in their career but due to some change in their situation (injury, scheme, competition) the fantasy community completely gave up on.  

Last year, it was common for shark poolers to mock Jordan Reed (drafted as TE20) while he responded by outperforming Gronk on a per game basis (finished as TE2).  

In 2014, Mark Ingram must have been on plenty of do not draft lists after a couple of disappointing seasons (drafted as RB34) but finished the season as a top ten RB on a per game basis.

2013 had several examples, most notably Knowshon Moreno.  Everyone was all over Monte's Balls and the former NFL first rounder was going undrafted in fantasy.   Knowshon ended the season with more yards and TDs that AP himself.  

But enough about the past, who are the candidates to rise from the dead this year?  I'll start by eliminating some popular choices because it seems like its never who you would expect.  So don't bother firing up the Christine Michael hype train again and don't expect to see Victor Cruz salsa dancing in the end zone.  Those aren't happening.  But these might.  Without further ado here are my nominees: 

1. Chip Kelly

Just a few years ago he was described as a genius, a mad scientist, and an innovator.  Now everyone just calls him a ########.  Typical overreaction, in my opinion.  Hyde & Torrey are great values this year.  

2.  Matt Stafford

Ok, he hasn't exactly been left for dead but he's certainly been cast aside because Calvin retired.  This reminds me a lot of Big Ben when Wallace left and no one knew what Brown could do for them.  Stafford loves Jim Bobs Cooter and his offense too.  Tate, Jones, Boldin, Ebron, Abdullah, and Riddick - that's plenty of talent to work with.  Why can't he hit 5000 and 40 again?

3.  Alfred Morris

The Cowboys have had some ridiculous bad luck with injuries lately but Alf doesn't need an injury to Zeke to be relevant.  He's a rookie, settle down Beavis.

4.   Dennis Pitta

This guy isn't just dead and buried.  He's been cremated and his ashes have already been spread.  But I'm rooting for him and I'd guess that Flacco is too.  There are other good choices at TE, but this is the one that would be truly shocking.  

5.  Steve Smith Sr.

Yeah he keeps getting older but that chip on his should keeps getting bigger.  Just don't let him know you took him at WR59, he might just punch you in the mouth.  

 
Yeah I am not high on any of these guys and have already given them their last rites, at least for this year.   Stafford is the best bet to have a decent season IMO.

 
Forget pitta- you're shoveling dirt on Ben Watson. 

Crabtree- had a resurgence last year, but everyone is still like "oh, yeah, Crabtree kind of sucks". Underdrafted IMO. 

Vincent jackson- the epitome of "left for dead", he's still capable of a 1000 yd season. Maybe. 

Demaryious thomas- everyone is trying to dump him in dynasty, I drafted him in the 5th rd ppr redraft last week. I think I'll get better than rd 5 return no matter the qb.

RGIII- perhaps won't set the ffl world on fire, but may settle in as a starting qb on a sneaky Cleveland team. He a dynasty flier (whoever traded him after his rookie season likely got a haul) and a redraft streamer, which is a whole lot more than I ever thought he could be again. Dysfunctional franchise, but they hired the right coach.

ebron- breakout or bust, seems you think one way or the other with this guy. I'm not expecting 1000 yds but if he's healthy to start the year I think he can easily get to 10 tds if he can catch the ball, which he did better late last year. Even though he could be falling behind because of his ankle, I think he will be out there as soon as he's healthy, and especially in red zone packages, where they could really use his size.

 
You mean the same Steve Smith that averaged 95 yards a game just last year? Hardly rising from the dead IMO. 

 
I guess I have a thing for old guys that the FF community is ready to send to pasture.  I think you could make a solid team from the following.

Charles - Second round for one of the greatest backs to play in the last decade?  Deal

Forte - Fourth round for a guy that finished top 10 last season and missed 8 games? Deal

Gore - 7th round for a guy that finished top 10 last season and is still the bellcow on a decent offense? Deal

Fitzgerald - 5th round for a WR1? Ok 

Marshall - Being drafted after 5 WR's who have never in their careers posted a PPG average better than Marshall's last season.  Two of which are coming back off season ending injuries.  Jones's only season better on a PPG basis than 2015 Marshall was last season by 0.1 PPG but is being drafted an entire round earlier.

Gates - He's old but he still is Rivers favorite red zone target. 7th best PPG last season and being drafted outside the top 12 TE's

Fitzpartrick - 7th best PPG last season for QB's, being drafted outside the top 20 QB's.  I get it he is not sexy, the Jets aren't sexy, and he has Fitzpatrick written on the back of jersey bu the hate is too much.  BTW his targets are Marshall, Decker, and Forte.

PS:  I am not really a Jets fan, just seems the FF community really like to throw dirt on them for some reason. 

 
I think LeSean McCoy is being underdeafted as he's going behind guys like Devonta Freeman, Eddie Lacy, and Mark Ingram (Ingram who I do really like), as RB 12 or 13 on most lists.  He only played 12 games last year, played many of them early in the year with a hamstring issue that was supposed to keep him out week 1 but didn't, and still finished with 1,200 total yards and 5 TDs.

Extrapolate that over 16 games and you're now looking at 1,565 total yards and 7 TDs.

Now factor in that he is healthy (if you take his mid season games when he was healthy they extrapolate to much more than even the 1,565 and 7 I mention above), he has no real competition for carries, Karlos Williams who stole 9 TDs from him last year is gone, and he is not a guy who has missed many games in his career due to injury so last year is more an aberration than a trend, I think he should be, at minimum the #6 RB off the board, and you can argue he should go #4 ahead of Zeke and Lamar Miller.  If you get him as the RB #12 or #13 off the board you're getting a steal!

From the RB spot, I also feel Isiah Crowell is going to provide huge value comparatively speaking to where he is being drafted (RB #38 or so).

At WR, I think DeSean Jackson is going to provide tremendous value.  He's not being "left for dead" as he's still going WR 30-35 or so, but has this guy ever finished outside of WR #21 or so when he's played the majority of a season?  I know he's battled some nagging injuries throughout the years, but I think his reputation of being "injury prone" is much worse than his actual reality of being injury prone as he usually always still plays even if banged up, and still produces.

I don't think what we saw from Cousins was a fluke last year (who is the QB I think is going to provide value way higher than his draft slot), less because of any other-worldly talent I think Cousins has, but because of Jay Gruden and the system he runs (top 3-5 finish for Andy Dalton, Colt McCoy even looks good running it, etc).  I do not expect Washington to have a good running game by any stretch of the imagination, and I do expect them to be pass-happy and airing it out.  Reed and Garçon are both great "underneath and middle of the field" targets and you'll need to pick your poison.  One of DJax's biggest knocks has been that he can disappear and only provide value when he lands a long one or two, well 1. He's made a career of that and does it better than almost anyone.  And 2. With the amount of targets there will be in the Washington offense, and the amount of weapons the defense has to "pick their poison" against, I see many (many) opportunities for DJax to "take the top off the defense" and can easily see a top 13-18 finish for him coming against a draft position of 30-35 at his position.

My other WR of value would be Torrey Smith simply due to the sheer volume of additional plays the Niners offense is going to run, and the fact they should be behind often, so the percent of those additional plays will likely be 60/40 favoring pass plays if not even worse.  That is a LOT of new targets to go around with very little receiver talent to spread them to.  I don't need the Niners to win games for Torrey to get 1,100 yards and 6-7 TDs mostly in garbage-time, comeback-mode.  Not world-beater numbers in anyway, but they easily equate to a valuable, weekly starter and he's currently being drafted at WR #40-45.

 
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I think LeSean McCoy is being underdeafted as he's going behind guys like Devonta Freeman, Eddie Lacy, and Mark Ingram (Ingram who I do really like), as RB 12 or 13 on most lists.  He only played 12 games last year, played many of them early in the year with a hamstring issue that was supposed to keep him out week 1 but didn't, and still finished with 1,200 total yards and 5 TDs.

Extrapolate that over 16 games and you're now looking at 1,565 total yards and 7 TDs.

Now factor in that he is healthy (if you take his mid season games when he was healthy they extrapolate to much more than even the 1,565 and 7 I mention above), he has no real competition for carries, Karlos Williams who stole 9 TDs from him last year is gone, and he is not a guy who has missed many games in his career due to injury so last year is more an aberration than a trend, I think he should be, at minimum the #6 RB off the board, and you can argue he should go #4 ahead of Zeke and Lamar Miller.  If you get him as the RB #12 or #13 off the board you're getting a steal!

From the RB spot, I also feel Isiah Crowell is going to provide huge value comparatively speaking to where he is being drafted (RB #38 or so).

At WR, I think DeSean Jackson is going to provide tremendous value.  He's not being "left for dead" as he's still going WR 30-35 or so, but has this guy ever finished outside of WR #21 or so when he's played the majority of a season?  I know he's battled some nagging injuries throughout the years, but I think his reputation of being "injury prone" is much worse than his actual reality of being injury prone as he usually always still plays even if banged up, and still produces.

I don't think what we saw from Cousins was a fluke last year (who is the QB I think is going to provide value way higher than his draft slot), less because of any other-worldly talent I think Cousins has, but because of Jay Gruden and the system he runs (top 3-5 finish for Andy Dalton, Colt McCoy even looks good running it, etc).  I do not expect Washington to have a good running game by any stretch of the imagination, and I do expect them to be pass-happy and airing it out.  Reed and Garçon are both great "underneath and middle of the field" targets and you'll need to pick your poison.  One of DJax's biggest knocks has been that he can disappear and only provide value when he lands a long one or two, well 1. He's made a career of that and does it better than almost anyone.  And 2. With the amount of targets there will be in the Washington offense, and the amount of weapons the defense has to "pick their poison" against, I see many (many) opportunities for DJax to "take the top off the defense" and can easily see a top 13-18 finish for him coming against a draft position of 30-35 at his position.

My other WR of value would be Torrey Smith simply due to the sheer volume of additional plays the Niners offense is going to run, and the fact they should be behind often, so the percent of those additional plays will likely be 60/40 favoring pass plays if not even worse.  That is a LOT of new targets to go around with very little receiver talent to spread them to.  I don't need the Niners to win games for Torrey to get 1,100 yards and 6-7 TDs mostly in garbage-time, comeback-mode.  Not world-beater numbers in anyway, but they easily equate to a valuable, weekly starter and he's currently being drafted at WR #40-45.
So you would take mccoy over freeman and ingram.  What about charles?

 
Here's a few "left for dead" guys I like:

Mike Wallace - he hasn't been very productive since he left Pittsburgh but he's played with two QBs that have struggled throwing deep, Tannehill and Bridgewater. Flacco loves to let it fly downfield and there isn't a lot of competition for targets here.

Justin Forsett - everyone loves their shiny new toys (Dixon and Allen), but old man Forsett is likely still the best bet for production out of this backfield and played well when healthy in Trestman's offense last season.

Arian Foster - he's ADP is likely creeping up a bit but he's still an effective pass catcher and if he stays healthy should be very productive in the Gase offense.

Phillip Rivers - probably the most disrespected QB in fantasy circles.

 
Here's a few "left for dead" guys I like:

Mike Wallace - he hasn't been very productive since he left Pittsburgh but he's played with two QBs that have struggled throwing deep, Tannehill and Bridgewater. Flacco loves to let it fly downfield and there isn't a lot of competition for targets here.

Justin Forsett - everyone loves their shiny new toys (Dixon and Allen), but old man Forsett is likely still the best bet for production out of this backfield and played well when healthy in Trestman's offense last season.

Arian Foster - he's ADP is likely creeping up a bit but he's still an effective pass catcher and if he stays healthy should be very productive in the Gase offense.

Phillip Rivers - probably the most disrespected QB in fantasy circles.
I think I'll have forest/west and foster/ajayi on a number of teams this year.  

 
Spiller - was hurt beginning of year, never got his legs under him.  Gonna be a solid ppr value, going cheaper than sproles and in some case Chris Thompson.

 
So you would take mccoy over freeman and ingram.  What about charles?
My tiers (non-PPR) are:

Johnson

Gurley

Peterson

Miller

McCoy

Zeke

Charles

Bell

Ingram

Martin

CJ Anderson

Forte

Freeman

Lacy

 
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Matt Ryan and Romo seem to be Qbs left for dead. Also Melvin Gorson seems to fit the "left for dead" label. Demarco Murray possibly. Pierre Garcon? Boldin? Jimmy Graham perhaps. 

 
I agree with some of the above mentioned players:

A. Morris- I agree with Elliott in a great situation but I'm thinking Elliott being a rookie may not see the field like a true workhorse back and Alf is going to get a lot of touches

Forsett- Everyone seems to want to latch on to one of the other guys but I think Forsett will be the lead dog for this year

Some others I like:

Garcon- in PPR I think he will see a lot of targets and if/when Reed goes down Garcon should pick up the bulk of those targets

Boldin- many are predicting this is the year for Ebron to breakout but I think Boldin puts him on hold for another year

Stewart- just a hunch that his receptions and TD's go up a bit and he is being drafted as a RB 3 right now

 
I'd go with Bruce Ellington rather than Torrey Smith. 
I don't hate that in a PPR cause I think Ellington could play the "shifty slot receiver role," with a low YPC.  In non-PPR (which is all I play), I prefer Torrey.

 
Michael Floyd, I think, will be a very pleasant surprise this year.  I expect a very good year.  

 
Charles Johnson, Garcon, and Romo were probably the first 3 guys I thought of. VJax a good call, too.

 
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Here's another that fits the rising from the ashes theme perfectly - Andre Ellington.  He's not even getting consideration as a handcuff.  We really have no idea how dj will hold up with a lot of touches.  

 
BobbyLayne said:
That seems widely anticipated, though.

FBGs thinks Fitz is still the man based on preseason rankings.
Yeah, since I'm not into the ff stuff anymore, I'm really had no idea of his adp or what the ff thoughts were.  He was just a guy that came to mind as a guy I'd be thinking is probably going to play a lot better than what I'd guess he was being seen as.  I think he can be a top 12 wr in the league this year. 

 
I see Randall Cobb as a guy who people are forgetting about.  That his ADP (3.12) at one site I looked at is so high means there's not much meat on that bone if you're looking for value. Fitz is another one.....as is D. Thomas.  

These guys are suffering from "Donald Driver" Syndrome......they are quality veterans who the rank and file have fallen out of love with because its Christmas Morning and there's a whole new bunch of toys under the tree.  Anquan Bolden might be the biggest victim of "DDS". 

 
Shaun Draughn is going ton score 180+ fantasy points this season.  Is he even being drafted?  

I also like Stevan Ridley.  I look at what Bell did.  Ridley has only to have Abdullah fumble his starting job away, which he probably will.  

 
I see Randall Cobb as a guy who people are forgetting about.  That his ADP (3.12) at one site I looked at is so high means there's not much meat on that bone if you're looking for value. Fitz is another one.....as is D. Thomas.  

These guys are suffering from "Donald Driver" Syndrome......they are quality veterans who the rank and file have fallen out of love with because its Christmas Morning and there's a whole new bunch of toys under the tree.  Anquan Bolden might be the biggest victim of "DDS". 
Cobb's a one trick pony and I dont think he's left for dead. People still value him quite highly because you get a piece of Rodgers. End of 3rd to early mid 4th feels right. Doesn't seem like a guy capable of doing more than 2 years ago which obviously would be considered a bounceback campaign if he got there. 

 
Shaun Draughn is going ton score 180+ fantasy points this season.  Is he even being drafted?  

I also like Stevan Ridley.  I look at what Bell did.  Ridley has only to have Abdullah fumble his starting job away, which he probably will.  
I don't know man. Doesn't seem like anyone's getting to 180 on that entire team. 

 
Julius Thomas. I don't see many people even mentioning his name. It's all about ARob and Hurns but the big guy will eat.

 
IMO, most of the players named are not "left for dead" - they have an ADP.  If they have an ADP they are "value picks", or "under-drafted", not forgotten about. 

Left for Dead would be someone like Andre Johnson, who one guy in my PPR league just picked up off the FA list, commenting that he thinks he'll have a good season. That would seem to be more of the poster child for "LFD" than most of the players listed. 

 
Julius Thomas. I don't see many people even mentioning his name. It's all about ARob and Hurns but the big guy will eat.


I drafted Thomas as my TE2 and thought he was a bargain. I have him finishing as top 6. An average TE, but could be more if the TDs come - JAX brought him in for a reason and with good health he could have a great season.  

Still, with an 8th round ADP, I don't see that as "left for dead" - just an upside value pick. 

 
oldmanhawkins said:
1. Chip Kelly

Just a few years ago he was described as a genius, a mad scientist, and an innovator.  Now everyone just calls him a ########.  Typical overreaction, in my opinion.  Hyde & Torrey are great values this year.  

2.  Matt Stafford

Ok, he hasn't exactly been left for dead but he's certainly been cast aside because Calvin retired.  This reminds me a lot of Big Ben when Wallace left and no one knew what Brown could do for them.  Stafford loves Jim Bobs Cooter and his offense too.  Tate, Jones, Boldin, Ebron, Abdullah, and Riddick - that's plenty of talent to work with.  Why can't he hit 5000 and 40 again?

3.  Alfred Morris

The Cowboys have had some ridiculous bad luck with injuries lately but Alf doesn't need an injury to Zeke to be relevant.  He's a rookie, settle down Beavis.

4.   Dennis Pitta

This guy isn't just dead and buried.  He's been cremated and his ashes have already been spread.  But I'm rooting for him and I'd guess that Flacco is too.  There are other good choices at TE, but this is the one that would be truly shocking.  

5.  Steve Smith Sr.

Yeah he keeps getting older but that chip on his should keeps getting bigger.  Just don't let him know you took him at WR59, he might just punch you in the mouth.  
Addressing point by point: 

1. Torrey Smith is a poor bet for production in a system that doesn't really fit his skill set, with a QB who doesn't (cant?) throw deep and an OL that won't protect long enough for him to do it. Hyde has a 4.02 ADP, so not sure how he's left for dead.  I think Hyde will have sneaky production in FFB as a volume play, since the Niners will run a lot of plays and Hyde is a good RB, but that's iffy week-to-week. I think 4th round is a fair price for his risk. Health remains a question mark. As a Niner fan I hope I'm wrong about Smith, but that's what the tea leaves are telling me.

2. Stafford is a solid QB2 and is being drafted as one. Again - not sure how this is left for dead. 11.03 ADP and being hyped a bit in the preseason after a couple nice performances. 

3. Alfred Morris is a nice call as LFD, and I think the Zeke injury/rookie risk has a lot of people talking about him - his huge game last preseason helped his stock/FFB-ers awareness quite a bit. Still, temper expectations until we see if Elliott can play. 

4. Pitta - way left for dead. I don't know if he has any value - I wouldn't draft him since TE seems pretty deep once you get past the perceived "elite". I scored Barnidge as the 11th TE off the board, and JThomas as the 12th. Pitta was not on my list, so if he performs, good call. lol 

5. Steve Smith Sr is being drafted - he has an ADP, and I think a pretty fair one. At that range I think VJax is a better bet to rebound, but neither of these dudes were left for dead - just age and injury concerns, and maybe a bad season last year caused stock to fall a bit. He will still punch you in the mouth though - agreed. lol 

 
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Donnybrook said:
Charles Johnson should be  the poster boy for this thread. 
I have recently drafted him at 247 and 253 among folks who knew some things about football.

If I didn't pick him it makes me wonder if anyone else would have considering how far he fell.

It seems like only folks tuned in to the Vikings know how well he has been playing in camp, despite us being in an information age.

 
Sigmund had Jason Wood on his "On the Couch" podcast this week and discussed a lot of things, but they talked a lot about QBs.  Jim Bob Cooter took over as OC for Detroit right before that London game, which was an absolute train wreck.  From that week through the end of the season, I think Stafford was QB6.  He's sure not being drafted as QB6...

 
Sigmund had Jason Wood on his "On the Couch" podcast this week and discussed a lot of things, but they talked a lot about QBs.  Jim Bob Cooter took over as OC for Detroit right before that London game, which was an absolute train wreck.  From that week through the end of the season, I think Stafford was QB6.  He's sure not being drafted as QB6...
I went back and looked to see how heavily he relied on Calvin in those 8 games and found that Calvin was his most targeted receiver in half of the games.  But only in the Eagles game when he was picking on Rowe and the Bears game in week 17 that it was significant.  

I don't mean to downplay the loss of an all-timer, but could it be possible that Stafford is a better QB without Calvin?  It's been asked before

Really, what I'm thinking is that the presence of a competent OC and a variety of weapons may be significantly more important for a QB than having a guy that is a beast but requires 150-200 targets.  

 
I don't know man. Doesn't seem like anyone's getting to 180 on that entire team. 
"Seem" being the operative word here.  What do you think they aren't going to be playing 60 minutes a week? 

They will be playing from behind often.  Gabbert is a classic check down type qb. Draug catches no less than 50 passes if he's healthy.  Probably more like 60.  If Hyde gets hurt again you have the ever elusive 3 down back.  

Chip Kelly was a genius until he wasn't.  I don't think he's as good as we thought at the beginning of last season.  Nor do I think he's as bad as we thought at the end of last season.  

This offense will be up tempo.  They will be checking down a lot with the lack of receiver talent.  Draughn and Ellington are going to clean up a lot of garbage.

 
"Seem" being the operative word here.  What do you think they aren't going to be playing 60 minutes a week? 

They will be playing from behind often.  Gabbert is a classic check down type qb. Draug catches no less than 50 passes if he's healthy.  Probably more like 60.  If Hyde gets hurt again you have the ever elusive 3 down back.  

Chip Kelly was a genius until he wasn't.  I don't think he's as good as we thought at the beginning of last season.  Nor do I think he's as bad as we thought at the end of last season.  

This offense will be up tempo.  They will be checking down a lot with the lack of receiver talent.  Draughn and Ellington are going to clean up a lot of garbage.


I love Ellington for that very reason. Volume play - Gabbart is going to check down a lot, and that should translate to lots and lots of targets for Ellington. Some of those will break away - even if they don't he should rack up points in PPR. 

 
I love Ellington for that very reason. Volume play - Gabbart is going to check down a lot, and that should translate to lots and lots of targets for Ellington. Some of those will break away - even if they don't he should rack up points in PPR. 
:yes:  and that's my thought on Draughn as well.  Stat compiler.  

 

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