Running Back Rankings Rd 4 - 7 -- Ennie, Meanie, Minny, Moe?? (1 Viewer)

I'm having a hell of a time ranking these RBs and to me, being able to do so is critical to my entire draft strategy. 

If I can feel "comfortable" with these options it could push me more towards a zero RB strategy. If not, I may want to "get it over with" and draft a stud early.

So here's my attempt. Assume PPR league.

* J. Langford -- Could get the lion's share of the touches. Looks good in preseason.

* R. Mathews -- Perennial injury risk but in the 5th round you could be baking this risk in while getting a workhorse (in a potentially lousy offense).

* J. Steward -- Gets cheated on the goal line but gets the touches in a high powered offense.

* M. Gordon -- Total bust last year, but SD offense could be going 2 TE more often and the kid has talent. Woodhead will be a pest.

* F. Gore -- Old as the hills, but there is no threat behind him.

* R. Jennings -- Looks to be the workhorse. NFC East schedule sweet.

* T. Rawls -- Still don't believe the hype with C. Michael. 

* J. Hill -- Still had 14 tds last season.

* D. Murray -- Ground n' Pound in TN although D. Henry could be a threat.

* G. Bernard -- A lot of targets left Cinci. Gio could prove usefull in PPR and emerge if Hill is a bust again.

* D. Johnson -- Was higher on him, but now it looks like CLE offense has more  options.

* D. Woodhead -- PPR and goal line value.

Honestly, though...I look at this list and when I'm confronted with any of these options I feel there is little difference among them.

Thoughts?

Different rankings? Or tiers?

Thanks

My Tiers non-ppr.  My preference is to get one anchor RB in the first or second and try to just fill RB2 out of the list below.  I think that is more realist expectations from these guys.

Stewart
Rawls
Mathews

Langford
Foster
Gore

Crowell
D. Murray
Forsett
Hill
Bernard

Blount
Gordon
Jennings
Abdullah
Woodhead

Yeah, that's a really good point. Other than Stewart, who I think is a solid RB2 with RB1 upside, and Gordon, who I think will deliver this year, the rest of them are all a bunch of question marks. I like Bernard, Jennings and Woodhead if I can get them at the right value, but I wouldn't reach for any of them, nor would I want to be forced to rely on them week to week. (And for the record, I'm very skeptical that Jennings can be a true workhorse, given that he's in his 30s and has never been one, even when the Giants have designated him RB1).

I think it makes the most sense to take advantage of how cheap these guys are going and grab 2 of them for your 2nd RB spot.  If you can swing Langford/Gore, for example, behind a 1st or 2nd round workhorse, you'll probably get decent production from one of them and bye week and injury protection from the other.

We Tigers said:

I think it makes the most sense to take advantage of how cheap these guys are going and grab 2 of them for your 2nd RB spot.  If you can swing Langford/Gore, for example, behind a 1st or 2nd round workhorse, you'll probably get decent production from one of them and bye week and injury protection from the other.

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I've got 3rd (no keeper), 4th (2 keepers) and 12th (1 keeper), so the guys available to me are going to be wildly different. I am actually looking to go much stronger at WR than RB early because there seem to be a lot of similar RBs beyond the top few. My first draft is the 4th pick and unless I want to go Elliot, it looks like I'll be going WR-WR-RB (keeping Mike Evans). I like the early round WRs much better than next tier of WRs and like the options available in the 2nd tier of RBs listed above.

Are you looking for rankings straight up player vs player or rankings with current ADP?

zftcg said:

Yeah, that's a really good point. Other than Stewart, who I think is a solid RB2 with RB1 upside, and Gordon, who I think will deliver this year, the rest of them are all a bunch of question marks. I like Bernard, Jennings and Woodhead if I can get them at the right value, but I wouldn't reach for any of them, nor would I want to be forced to rely on them week to week. (And for the record, I'm very skeptical that Jennings can be a true workhorse, given that he's in his 30s and has never been one, even when the Giants have designated him RB1).

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Yeah, relying on these guys as part of a zero RB strategy seems risky.

I keep thinking with the #9 pick I go one of AP/Zeke/L. Miller and then go WR heavy rounds 2 - 5 or 6. Then, instead of banging my head against the wall trying to pick one of these guys, I just see what's left and pick one or two in rounds 6 and 7. Maybe one of them will hit.

We Tigers said:

I think it makes the most sense to take advantage of how cheap these guys are going and grab 2 of them for your 2nd RB spot.  If you can swing Langford/Gore, for example, behind a 1st or 2nd round workhorse, you'll probably get decent production from one of them and bye week and injury protection from the other.

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I like this idea, but I don't think I'd be looking to draft 2 of them until rounds 6 and 7 assuming I go RB with my #9 overall pick. 

I've found myself going RB-WR-WR in most of my mocks. Big question is what to do in Rd 4. My main money league is 3WR/no flex, so the temptation is to lock up three solid starters at WR, but since it's also a 16-teamer if you whiff on a RB it can be hard to find much on the wire. I'd love to figure out an answer more quantitatively, but I can never really seem to grok the math in that type of situation.

zftcg said:

I've found myself going RB-WR-WR in most of my mocks. Big question is what to do in Rd 4. My main money league is 3WR/no flex, so the temptation is to lock up three solid starters at WR, but since it's also a 16-teamer if you whiff on a RB it can be hard to find much on the wire. I'd love to figure out an answer more quantitatively, but I can never really seem to grok the math in that type of situation.

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Just went and did a quick simulation on Fantasy Pros to test out this strategy. I picked Dez/Martin/Decker, then went Fitz in 4. Was hoping I could still get Gordon as my RB2, but the best available was Jennings, which I didn't like at all. I'm thinking I'll stick to the plan of taking 2 RBs/2 WRs with my first four picks.

Great thread title. You are talking about multiple different subjects here, so that is kind of hard to pin down.

MFL ADP for 12 team redarft leagues, real drafts, PPR scoring format.

Setting some of the other issues aside, rounds four through seven:

38.    4.02    Anderson, C.J. DEN RB    41.79    8    105    801
40.    4.04    Hyde, Carlos SFO RB    43.38    13    92    802
43.    4.07    Rawls, Thomas SEA RB    44.30    3    123    800
46.    4.10    Murray, Latavius OAK RB    48.66    16    116    801
 

49.    5.01    Forte, Matt NYJ RB    50.12    16    141    798
51.    5.03    Murray, DeMarco TEN RB    55.38    16    152    799
57.    5.09    Johnson, Duke CLE RB    65.20    29    173    792
60.    5.12    Lewis, Dion NEP RB    66.48    15    211    722

61.    6.01    Langford, Jeremy CHI RB    66.80    24    162    794
63.    6.03    Hill, Jeremy CIN RB    69.20    23    157    795
68.    6.08    Jones, Matt WAS RB    71.61    36    157    777
70.    6.10    Bernard, Giovani CIN RB    71.79    32    139    786
 

73.    7.01    Woodhead, Danny SDC RB    74.43    21    245    783
74.    7.02    Gordon, Melvin SDC RB    76.03    21    163    782
76.    7.04    Mathews, Ryan PHI RB    78.23    31    306    782
78.    7.06    Foster, Arian MIA RB    78.72    31    194    771
81.    7.09    Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB    81.74    19    234    772

I think the best values for RB from these rounds are Giovanni Bernard and Melvin Gordon. I am not sure why Bernard is being drafted 13 picks later than Duke Johnson. I value both of these RB about the same and I would draft Bernard over Duke. I think Duke Johnson is fair value being selected in the 5th round but I don't like his chances to outperform his draft position. I feel the same about Bernard, but if you can get Bernard later, (or Duke) then they start representing some value to outperform their ADP in the 6th round. Woodhead I would put in the same tier as these two RB for PPR, so he represents value as well.

Matt Forte deserves consideration in the 5th round I am somewhat on the fence about him right now and need to give that some more thought.

Mathews if healthy could be very good in Pederson's WCO, but I worry about Sproles (who could be a great value himself) perhaps mixing in too often, or Mathews getting injured again.

I like Melvin Gordon and I have recently discovered that I may be underestimating his opportunity compared to some of my Chargers pals. I am still undecided about that, but Gordon might end up with 250+ opportunities even if Woodhead is doing well and still involved.

I think DeMarco Murray may present the best value of them all, you would just want to also consider getting Henry as a handcuff. He is going at the top of the 9th round so assume round 8 for him. I think Murray will be the bellcow for the beginning of the season at least, possibly all year, but I would want Henry as insurance in case there is a changing of the guard due to injury or just Henry playing really well.

Carlos Hyde and CJ Anderson could live up to their current ADP but I think they present more risk than I am willing to accept as a fourth round pick, when you could be taking Maclin, Moncrief, Kelce, Olsen, Fitzgerald or Russell Wilson.

There are RB being selected later than these guys that I think represent similar value as the players being selected here such as;

88.    8.04    Gore, Frank IND RB    91.04    16    240    761

101.    9.05    Sims, Charles TBB RB    106.80    42    235    742

104.    9.08    Ajayi, Jay MIA RB    108.98    48    192    733

108.    9.12    Forsett, Justin BAL RB    112.22    54    298    726

123.    11.03    Riddick, Theo DET RB    123.74    58    311    717

140.    12.08    Booker, Devontae DEN RB    139.72    44    229    678

Riddick is being drafted way too late imo for PPR format. I think he is close to Bernard, Duke Johnson, Woodhead yet he can be drafted so much later.