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Drafting a team including multiple players suspended or injured to start the season (1 Viewer)

(HULK)

(HULK)

(Smash)
These guys end up being good values due to the discount on them.  Their ppg performance will likely be much better than where they are being drafted.  If you grab one of them, you can probably cover the absence, but what about two, or 3?

What if you draft Bell, Brady, Gordon, Eifert, etc?  Is it worth it if you're getting them later than usual?  You're kinda tanking the first 4 games if you do this, but I'd imagine your team would be very strong starting week 5.

Thoughts?

 
Brady and Bell will hold their own but I wouldn't want to rely on Gordon and Eifert.  I don't think Gordon or Eifert will be difference makers as starters this year.

 
I'm sure there are players I'm forgetting in the same boat, but lets say you draft towards the back end and go:

1st Bell

5th Brady

7th Eifert

8th Gordon

That's about all their ADPs.  Are you too far behind the 8ball to hope to win one or two of the first 4 games?

 
Team could hypothetically looks like:
1) Bell

2) AR15

3) CJ Anderson

4) J Landry

5) Ryan Mathews

6) Brady (his ADP his here actually, not 5th, I was incorrect above)

7) Eifert

8) Gordon

9) K Cousins

10) Crowell

...the rest

So, the first few weeks your starting Cousins, CJ, Mathews, AR15, Landry, and assume some low ranked TE.  Kinda rough there.  Looks a lot better come week 4/5 though.

 
Bell is in the first round?  I have yet to see him there lately.  I see him later in the first or early in the third.  He's a wasted first round pick.

Edit:  I looked back at some of my FFC drafts and saw him mostly in the early second round.  I must have been thinking of all the podcasts I've been listening to where they said they wouldn't take him until closer to the third round.

 
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Hawkeye21 said:
Bell is in the first round?  I have yet to see him there lately.  I see him later in the first or early in the third.  He's a wasted first round pick.

Edit:  I looked back at some of my FFC drafts and saw him mostly in the early second round.  I must have been thinking of all the podcasts I've been listening to where they said they wouldn't take him until closer to the third round.
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why isn't bell worth a 1st rounder? You don't think PPG he will outscore charles, mccoy, lacy, ingram? 

 
I have Bell as a keeper in an 8 team league and I'm considering this strategy.  Only problem is Brady in the 6th... wish his ADP was lower because I want to wait longer for QB in this league.  I will almost certainly have Gordon on this team, probably A. Foster as well if I can although he doesn't fit the exact profile you are taking about.  In this league I want as many potential PPG studs as I can get... no matter when I can play them.  If I lose some early games that just means I get early WW priority and with an 8 team league the hole I would need to dig out of isn't as deep - if I lose some early games. 

 
I have a redraft team with Brady, Bell, and Gordon (and Brown, not that he is that big a deal). Except I drafted that team so long ago that Brady looked like he might not be suspended, a Bell suspension wasn't even on the radar, and Gordon was looking like he was on indefinite suspension. So my draft locations really wouldn't be all that helpful at this point.

 
packer_junkie said:
why isn't bell worth a 1st rounder? You don't think PPG he will outscore charles, mccoy, lacy, ingram? 
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I'm not spending a first round pick on a guy that won't play for the first 3 games of the season and then is still a bigger injury risk than other RBs.  He's very high risk, high reward this year.  I would only take him in the late second round.

 
The problem with Bell is that I feel like I will have to reach for DWI'll too as an insurance policy for the things Hawkeye mentioned... but his ADP is so high it might make it tough.

 
(HULK) said:
I'm sure there are players I'm forgetting in the same boat, but lets say you draft towards the back end and go:

1st Bell

5th Brady

7th Eifert

8th Gordon

That's about all their ADPs.  Are you too far behind the 8ball to hope to win one or two of the first 4 games?
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In this scenario, I would pass on Eifert and go for a Julius Thomas/Antonio Gates combo in the 10/11/12 rounds and use the 7th round pick on RB/WR.

 
To me this depends on league depth and PPR scoring, and even still, as others I've said, I'm not that high on Gordon and wouldn't reach for Eifert even though I love the guy.

I'd have no problem taking Bell in the late first in a PPR.  To me, there's no bigger week-to-week difference maker in the PPR game than a RB getting WR2 receiving numbers with a full RB workload.  Bell is absolutely that.  As for Brady, he probably comes back on the warpath and has a strong season, but I also don't worry about QB that much as I believe there are 12-15 guys you can win with, so I wouldn't force Brady.

I'm not on Gordon as much as some others... I recognize the talent, but he's been out of the league a long time and there were hiccups in his last 4 game stretch he was allowed to play (if I'm remembering this correctly).  Now he comes back to a WR corps with a first round pick and a project that's finally appearing to pay off in Coleman and Pryor, not to mention Hue loves both those guys.  In the 8th or 9th round, I guess it's worth a swing, but...

In Eifert, I think that's a week 8+ play.  I would imagine Eifert's back on the field week 4 or 5, but I don't think he's full speed till right around when playoffs start.

If it's QWWRRTF, I'd definitely gamble on Bell and in general would take more risks... maybe not Brady, but that's just because I hardly ever draft a QB in the 5th.  Take Bell, get WRs the next 2-3 rounds and an RB2, end up starting a guy like Crowell or Chris Ivory for a few weeks at RB (if you miss on DW), then come back with a vengeance later in the season.  Looking at @(HULK)'s lineup above, it's plausible you can fill your starting lineup (outside of QB) in rounds 2-7 (assuming the format I stated before) AND still have Bell, then start taking chances on Gordon and Eifert and filling the QB spot.  Waiting on QB just makes so much sense to me that I'd rather have that midround pick for WR/RB depth than Brady.  Outside of that, no problem taking the rest of the suspended/injured guys.

 
League format matters quite a bit here too.

Two of my leagues are 12-teamers in which only 4 make the playoffs. You start out 0-4 in either of those leagues and you're basically dead man walking.

If it's a 10-team, or a league that hands out 6 playoff spots, then yeah, how my team looks at the end of the season is a lot more important than weeks 1-4, and I'm probably willing to roll the dice on rostering multiple names like those above if I think they're otherwise bargains at their draft position.

 
It depends........ It depends on how deep you normally draft.  Do you draft  a ton of flyers hoping one strikes gold or do you draft steady and take the best proven players you can find?  If you are the former this strategy might not be for you....if the latter it can work.    It depends... is your league full of sharks?  a mixture?  guppy central?  The  better your leaguemates  are at this the less likely you are to be able to pull this off......  It depends.....  how many teams make the playoffs?  If only 4 teams make the playoffs  its much harder  than if 8 teams make the playoffs......  Put all together:  I did this one year in a rather new  league where 8 teams make the playoffs.....worked like a charm and I won the championship.......  being the smart guy that I am I tried it again last year..... the league has gotten much MUCH harder over the years...... and I failed to make the playoffs.  Its not about the individual players involved...its all about the league.

 
In addition to risking a poor start, there's another downside to this strategy: it hamstrings your roster for the first few weeks. Imagine this: in week 2 Zeke blows out his knee and is lost for the season. Everyone is putting in a bid on Morris, and as the worst team in the league you have the No 1 waiver claim ... only you can't use it because your bench is clogged up with backup QBs and TEs. 

OK, maybe in that case you'd figure something out. But overall it reduces your roster flexibility at a crucial time of the year. 

(Better example: Freeman last year. Coleman gets hurt, Freeman seems like a good pickup, but no one was totally sure at first. A team with a bunch of wasted bench spots is less likely to take that type of chance.)

 
zftcg said:
(Better example: Freeman last year. Coleman gets hurt, Freeman seems like a good pickup, but no one was totally sure at first. A team with a bunch of wasted bench spots is less likely to take that type of chance.)
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Was Freeman really on waivers at any point last season?  Pretty sure he was drafted in all of my leagues, although I took him a couple times so that could skew my perspective...

 
Totally depends on the skill level of the other owners in your league, the depth of your bench,  how "lucky" you get with your other picks..etc..  It's probably a "boom or bust" strategy.   

 
I've done similar things in years past, you're almost committing yourself to playing the waiver wire week 1 which is fine.

Once your team kicks into full strength in week 5, it's deadly.

 
Arodin said:
Was Freeman really on waivers at any point last season?  Pretty sure he was drafted in all of my leagues, although I took him a couple times so that could skew my perspective...
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I dunno. I remember Matthew Berry wrote a whole column late in the season highlighting people who dropped Freeman after Week 1.

But it doesn't really matter. My point is there might be times when you need to be a little aggressive on the WW and might hold off because your bench is filled with suspended guys.

 
Holding suspended or injured players has almost always been a waste of time and space imo. Harvin, Gordon, Bell, Vick, VJax, the list goes on and on

 
shadyridr said:
Holding suspended or injured players has almost always been a waste of time and space imo. Harvin, Gordon, Bell, Vick, VJax, the list goes on and on
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This is a good point. The two times I can think of it working out were Gordon 2013 and Beckham 2014 (and the latter is debatable, since in most leagues he was more of a WW add than a draft-and-stash). But I think you're right that in most of the cases from recent years (Blackmon '13, Gordon '14, Bell '15, Foster '15) it hasn't.

 
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Eifert I'm staying away from in redraft... pretty sure whoever picks him up will most likely drop him.  Gordons $$ is too high.  He's a 9th round flyer to me

 
KellysHeroes said:
Eifert I'm staying away from in redraft... pretty sure whoever picks him up will most likely drop him.  Gordons $$ is too high.  He's a 9th round flyer to me
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He was already dropped in one of my leagues and I picked him up right away.  He was basically free for me.

 
You need  a huge bench to pull this off. You will miss out on most of the early breakout players rostering these guys. 

 
I'm starting to second guess my Eifert pick up.  I may end up dropping him again and picking Zach Miller up again.  Luckily transactions are free until the season starts.

 
Ilov80s said:
You need  a huge bench to pull this off. You will miss out on most of the early breakout players rostering these guys. 
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Another great point, and one I should have included. Many leagues include an IR spot or two and I'm more inclined to grab guys like this in those, since they generally otherwise go unused for the first couple of weeks. 

Here Bell in particular almost represents a worst-case scenario for owners, because even in those leagues he's tying up a bench slot, *plus* you might feel obligated to reach for DeAngelo, which not only costs you a 6th-7th rounder but ties up *another* roster spot for all of September, and probably beyond (endowment bias ... it's a thing). I drafted Bell 1.7 last week in a keep-3 league with shallow benches (11 starters, 5 bench) - crazy value at #37 overall, in one sense, but I'm second-guessing it now as it could well cost me the season if having him and later DW tying up one of those 5 slots means I miss out on this year's WW gem.

 
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zftcg said:
In addition to risking a poor start, there's another downside to this strategy: it hamstrings your roster for the first few weeks. Imagine this: in week 2 Zeke blows out his knee and is lost for the season. Everyone is putting in a bid on Morris, and as the worst team in the league you have the No 1 waiver claim ... only you can't use it because your bench is clogged up with backup QBs and TEs. 

OK, maybe in that case you'd figure something out. But overall it reduces your roster flexibility at a crucial time of the year. 

(Better example: Freeman last year. Coleman gets hurt, Freeman seems like a good pickup, but no one was totally sure at first. A team with a bunch of wasted bench spots is less likely to take that type of chance.)
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Exactly. In most leagues you can have one or two dead roster spots for a few weeks and still be able to work the waiver wire. Outside of really deep leagues, you lose that option when you draft 3-4 players in that category and you are betting essentially you can win enough games to remain competitive until those players can be starters.

With this strategy if you manage a 2-2 start, you will be still be in the hunt for the players. However if you are 0-4 or 1-3 you may not recover from that no matter how good your team looks in Week 5.

 
I typically avoid players with suspensions but Gordon was a value in round 9 that I did take. It's just too hard to navigate a 13 game season when you already have someone missing 3 or 4 of those games.

 
I dont think it's a bad idea to draft a couple of players in a scenario like this as long as you can find viable fill ins for the games they miss. I drafted Bell in the 1st & just picked up Eifert for dirt cheap and the only thing that worries me is missing out on an early WW star because I don't have anyone worth dropping at the end of my bench to make that move, instead im waiting on a injured guy for at least a month. On the other hand, finding that WW stud vs a 1-2 week wonder is a bit of a crapshoot as well.

 
Mr. Irrelevant said:
Another great point, and one I should have included. Many leagues include an IR spot or two and I'm more inclined to grab guys like this in those, since they generally otherwise go unused for the first couple of weeks. 

Here Bell in particular almost represents a worst-case scenario for owners, because even in those leagues he's tying up a bench slot, *plus* you might feel obligated to reach for DeAngelo, which not only costs you a 6th-7th rounder but ties up *another* roster spot for all of September, and probably beyond (endowment bias ... it's a thing). I drafted Bell 1.7 last week in a keep-3 league with shallow benches (11 starters, 5 bench) - crazy value at #37 overall, in one sense, but I'm second-guessing it now as it could well cost me the season if having him and later DW tying up one of those 5 slots means I miss out on this year's WW gem.
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Plus one of your guys you drafted to play right away could get hurt.

 
Injured players in August are often also injured players in September. Your roster will be in shambles in a few weeks anyway. Why invite known problems into the mess too?

 
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