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Skill is doing your homework to the very best of your ability. Like a golfer who won the Michigan Amateur in 3 different decades once told me, I didn't win it, the other guy lost it. Often others make the mistake and then you are their to capitalize by putting yourself in a solid position either on the green below the hole or with a lineup without any holes.
I agree with all of this.
I'd say this is true. In 20 years playing in about 40 leagues, I've only missed the playoffs once and it was by a single game. But two of my three most dominant teams didn't win the title.
Totally disagree. You can find gems in the preseason. It doesn't happen often, but it's possible.
Yep, you can get breakout guys from good preseason performances, but ignore pretty much anything the vets do.
Totally. Especially to determine who the backup would be. Before the season nobody knew Turbin would be the backup to Gore, Pryor would be a starting WR, or Keith Marshall would be fighting for a spot. I live for the preseason.
Nah. It's like poker. Luck plays a large role, but skill will put you in situations with better odds. The teams drafting D and K too early or aren't very active on the WW, those teams can still win the league but they need a lot more luck than a team that is actively putting RBs/WRs on their roster that have breakout potential. Kind of like in poker, people chasing flushes and straights into low odds situations can win but they will more often lose.
Disagree also. One thing that is certainly helpful is have they come back from a major injury? Do the players still look explosive and in good condition? How is their rapport with the QB and coach? Are they rising or falling on the depth charts? waht do we see with the new draft picks?
Agreed. I think preseason is important for things like snap counts, rookies and injured guys. I don't care that Mike Evans shredded last night. That won't make me bump up in my rankings just like Cooks not doing much won't have me bump him down. However, seeing a rookie like Sharpe playing well and showing he belongs in the NFL will put him on my draft board. If you just look at the reports, you saw ASJ got the start. However, watching the game/snap count you can see he wasn't very involved. There were 2 other TEs being used with the starters. On the other hand, Jared Cook was in on probably 70% of the snaps Rodgers took. That I like.
Being treasurer is more of a PITA than being commissioner. League mates are tough to adopt use of league safe or pay pal. We've played together almost 20 years now, so we cut some slack, but at the end of the day, money issues are money issues. Being treasurer is a PITA.
There is skill.. but luck trumps it.
I agree with this. Over a 14 game season, it's skill that trumps most bad luck. I've been playing FF for over 20 years, multiple leagues including higher stake leagues. I've made the playoffs about 85-90% of the time (in four teams advancing to the playoffs, not six) and each time I missed it was by one game in seasons when I have been crippled by injuries. Even in most years with crippling injuries I've been able to overcome it with depth and good roster management.
Sure you could have the best team in the world and a couple unlucky injuries can derail it. The best team can lose to the worst team any given week. A schedule can be unfortunate and the highest scoring team can finish in last place due to unlucky weekly match-ups. A bad owner can get lucky and have Moss and Brady together the year they combine for 70 TDs. AA can lose to 44. Three of a kind can get sucked out on by an inside straight. However, over many leagues and many years, skill trumps luck. There's a reason some poker players consistently win. Even though in any given hand or game, I (who is not good at poker) could beat Phil Ivey. If I played Ivey 100 times, he would destroy me. It is tougher now since information is so widely available. The margins are getting thinner and thinner.
You keep referring to poker where you can calculate odds, and influence outcomes versus your opponent by bluffing/not bluffing/strategy.
I've learned that confirmation bias plays a very significant role in fantasy football.
OK, sports betting. Do you think there are people who are more successful than others at betting on games? If a very good sports gambler was picking games against Average Joe, over time he would get more games right and win more money. Any given week or even season, he could lose because luck is massive. Over the long haul, there is a skill. In all my long running leagues there are few teams that consistently make the playoffs and they aren't a few teams that consistently don't make the playoffs. Year to year there is variance, but over 15 years, it's very clear who the strong players are and the records bare this out.
Perfect example - That owner breezed through that year - until week 15 (Playoff week 2). Brady/Moss die in the mud against the Jets.
