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Overzealous? I think it may be overzealous to think that the worst starting RB in the league has a 90% chance of holding on to his job. If people thought Jones had a 90% chance of still being the starter in week 16 his ADP would be a lot higher than it is. Part of his ADP being lowish is the legitimate concern people have that he will be a bench player by midseason. And I say this as a Jones owner that doesn't have Kelly (dynasty, haven't done my drafts yet in redraft).
To be fair, I'm pretty sure I only said it twice.
I don't think anyone in this thread is recommending starting him in week 1. The point in owning a RB that has an opportunity in week 1 is that if he plays well maybe he parlays that into a week 2 start, and so on. That shouldn't have to be explained. But even if it did need to be explained, it already was. This whole "if you're relying on him week 1 you're a terrible drafter" nonsense is like a Donald Trump argument. You keep repeating it because you think you're making an awesome point that everyone has skipped over. But the reality is that it's just so irrelevant and absurd that no one has bothered retorting it much and repeating it over and over again only makes you look worse and worse because we're beginning to realize that you think you're saying something really smart.
And really, even if someone does end up starting him week 1 it's not necessarily the end of the world or an indictment of their drafting ability. There are plenty of people that are going to be rolling out a Detroit RB or Miami RB or Baltimore RB or New England RB, etc without really having any clarity on which one is the right guy yet. If Matt Jones is out week 1 (not a given, obviously) then having a guy that is pretty likely to get a good bulk of the work that week while those other situations clear up has some value to some people. If Jones is out week 1 it's almost a certainty that the FBGs week 1 start/sit projections will have him ranked higher than some guys people have in their starting lineup. That's not necessarily an indictment of someone's drafting because, as some people seem to have trouble realizing, we draft for a season and not just week 1. This is especially true in modern FF where a lot of people strategically wait on RBs and load up elsewhere. Those drafters typically load up on a mid round RBs, many of which have upside but the hardest part is figuring out which ones to start early on (if that part were easy, they wouldn't be available in the middle rounds). Being able to push that decision back a week after seeing what happens out on the field in the regular season is a legitimate advantage for people with those drafting approaches.
I think they bring Pierre Thomas back after Week 1 - so his contract isn't fully guaranteed. He played decently for them last season and the team is in "win now" mode in what may even be a weaker NFC East than it was last season.
Yeah they have to bring in someone. I'm rostering Kelley at this point just because he seems to have a beat on a starting job which is something. That said, I defy someone to name me a worse RB prospect in the last decade that started a game for an NFL team.
This is exactly what Skin homer in my league said. He's waiting on Thomas and grabbed Kelley in the interim.
As if Matt Jones is some monster who needs the job taken away from him. Newsflash: Matt Jones is TERRIBLE.
Not Kelley. Skins announced earlier this week that Kelley will sit tonight. Teams usually sit their starters for week 4.
The vet in this case is/was a thumper Fat Fred /M. Jones appears can either stay in for pass protection Or catch the ball (technically a "3-down back")
Nah, Rob Kelley's nickname is Fat Rob because he showed up overweight in the offseason going into his junior or senior season of college or something.
At least he's not getting stuffed or screwing up. If he sits the rest of the game like he did the last drive I think that will be the bigger story. I would think that a guy like him would be playing more than 1 drive if he wasn't in the week 1 game plan.
That was Deshazor Everett, who is also wearing #22 and was incorrectly called Robert Kelley by the play by play guy. I did rewind to double check. It was a 200 lb db with no dreads that had Everett on his back.
It's Tampa. They missed 3-4 tackles on his run. I think we are just seeing Brown because Gruden already knows what he has in Kelley. I still think Kelley is the guy to have. He looked good on the few runs he got.
Aren't we talking about him playing with and against a bunch of guys that won't even make the team?
Those numbers don't really mean anything in this situation. So it actually is somewhat bold.tone1oc said:
I'm talking top 2 absent injuries. I'd guarantee that any RB that starts the season in the top 2 spots (absent injuries to people above him) has a much higher than 3 year average NFL career. Now if you're 2nd because of injuries it's different obviously. But as far as I can tell he's 2nd if everyone on the roster is healthy. That 2.47 year career includes practice squad guys and the like.I think he is atop the depth chart right now, but
It also includes Emmitt Smith and Fred Jackson. All good though, I don't care to argue about that. If I had to put money on it, he probably is out the league in 3 years, but that doesn't mean he can't help my fantasy team right now.
Pretty grim options. I suppose Gillislee might be next best. We saw Bills use a lot of backs last year with success (including Gills). Bush is washed up and very injury prone. Also are we sure Blue is ahead of Ervin?
Gillislee I'm not even sure is ahead of Jonathan Williams. Dixon has about a month(?) of zeroes before he comes in. Kelley can swapped out for Dixon if/when the time comes. Balt still has a somewhat crowded back field. I know Dixon climbed the depth chart but West hasn't looked bad, Forsett is still listed as the starter and Buck Allen is only in his second year (may improve).
Don't do drugs.Dismattle said:
Not sure if Kelley will wrestle the job away from Jones, but it could happen, and at the price you have to pay for Kelley, pennies compared to Jones, I'm buying.
In redraft?
dyno, never. redraft, sure
