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Sleeper Alert: Rob Kelley - RB - WAS (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Dismattle
Footballguy
Think thats more like pick your poison..
I mean we know somethings:
Silas reed 16 carries as a pro w/ indefinite suspension
We got another back for 3rd downs
Yet another back going to IR
But, we still have the starter Matt Jones, and the rookie Brown actually matched carrys w/ yds w/ Fat Rob
This aint no sure bet..
socrates
Footballguy
I guess I still haven't bought into Kelley. I would still much rather have Dixon, even in redraft, despite the fact he may miss the first month of the season. I have way more confidence in Dixon being fantasy relevant this season, even with the logjam at RB in Baltimore, than I do in Kelley being anything more than mere fantasy RB depth. Matt Jones is reportedly on schedule to start Week #1, but even if Jones ends up injured or fumbles his way to the bench, I don't see Kelley as a Thomas Rawls-like talent who goes from undrafted free agent to fantasy starter. I would rather gamble on the more talented player, and that is Dixon.
My suspicion is we will see Matt Jones get most of the RB work in Washington and Kelley being recycled back into fantasy free agency the first couple weeks of the season.
tone1oc
Footballguy
Talent alone doesn't score fantasy points. If Terrance West and/or Forsett play well Dixon will be in a RBBC that also includes Buck Allen. What are the realistic odds that Dixon ends up the feature back this year? I think Kelley has a much clearer path to touches, and you don't have to wait 4+ weeks.
All that said, I have no issues at all with @socrates line of thinking. If you really believe in Dixon's talent to the level where he will be an impactful player that will take some time then don't make the move. But when discussing end of bench options to cut for Kelley I hardly call that hype.
All that said, I have no issues at all with @socrates line of thinking. If you really believe in Dixon's talent to the level where he will be an impactful player that will take some time then don't make the move. But when discussing end of bench options to cut for Kelley I hardly call that hype.
Youre clearly not basing your opinions on kelley on actual game tape because the guy has looked better than Jones in every aspect since training camp started. Sure his measurables arent great and his college numbers suck but that Tulane offense was no place for a RB to excel. I only care about right now not what he did in college and right now he's very sharp on the field. Maybe Jones was holding back before getting nicked up maybe he's overthinking it but in the end I see at 60/40 split this year when it's all said and done. Similar to Alf and Jones last year.
socrates
Footballguy
I certainly agree with you there. My preference for Dixon has more to do with Dixon than Kelley. I actually like the addition of Kelley as an end-of-your bench option if you have a roster spot (assuming Washington doesn't add a RB of significance in the coming days), but if he does little the first couple weeks, he probably becomes expendable for an early-season waiver wire pickup.
While I am not yet sold on Kelley, Matt Jones has done little to inspire confidence that he can hold down the job in Washington, and Kelley has shown to be their best early-down option behind Jones. The lack of obstacles in Kelley's path to relevant touches makes him at least rosterable until we see if Jones can prove to be a reliable workhorse. No hype needed to accept that.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
...
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The thinner that WAS bench gets the more I think the kelly owners have a chance of return on the minimal investment.
Kelly remains unrostered in my 12-team IDP, but considering the 15 starters, benches are thin. I would expect the Jones owner to add him, but then again, he drafted Matt jones, so....
that all said, color me absolutely shocked that WAS hasn't brought anyone in. How do you run a football team like that?
Kelly remains unrostered in my 12-team IDP, but considering the 15 starters, benches are thin. I would expect the Jones owner to add him, but then again, he drafted Matt jones, so....
that all said, color me absolutely shocked that WAS hasn't brought anyone in. How do you run a football team like that?
If they do it won't be until after week 1 when veteran contracts arent guaranteed.The thinner that WAS bench gets the more I think the kelly owners have a chance of return on the minimal investment.
Kelly remains unrostered in my 12-team IDP, but considering the 15 starters, benches are thin. I would expect the Jones owner to add him, but then again, he drafted Matt jones, so....
that all said, color me absolutely shocked that WAS hasn't brought anyone in. How do you run a football team like that?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Or maybe Kelley didn't play against meaningful schemes or players. That last game was a joke. I watched the highlights, i though he looked slow and block like (much like his measurables say he is)
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bigmarc27
Footballguy
CSN Mid-Atlantic's Rich Tandler believes undrafted rookie Rob Kelley has earned regular-season carries in the Redskins' backfield behind Matt Jones.
Kelley popped off this preseason, rushing 38 times for 198 yards. Tandler believes Jones would have handled roughly 75 percent of the Redskins' carries this season, but he thinks Kelley's strong preseason has pushed it more of a 60-40 split in favor of Jones, with Kelley entering the year as the clear No. 2. Jones has proven a bit injury-prone also, while Kelley has shown downhill running skills, even if he isn't going to outrun anybody. Kelley is worth a flier in redraft leagues.
Kelley popped off this preseason, rushing 38 times for 198 yards. Tandler believes Jones would have handled roughly 75 percent of the Redskins' carries this season, but he thinks Kelley's strong preseason has pushed it more of a 60-40 split in favor of Jones, with Kelley entering the year as the clear No. 2. Jones has proven a bit injury-prone also, while Kelley has shown downhill running skills, even if he isn't going to outrun anybody. Kelley is worth a flier in redraft leagues.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I would say the Redskins have been one of the better run teams since Scot McCloughlan took over. They obviously take the view that other positions are more important than RB and that you can always find solid talent at RB on the street or in later rounds, and I have to say, they probably have a point. Look at the Patriots. They seem to get by just fine at RB by bringing guys off the street or drafting them low (Blount, Lewis, White etc).The thinner that WAS bench gets the more I think the kelly owners have a chance of return on the minimal investment.
Kelly remains unrostered in my 12-team IDP, but considering the 15 starters, benches are thin. I would expect the Jones owner to add him, but then again, he drafted Matt jones, so....
that all said, color me absolutely shocked that WAS hasn't brought anyone in. How do you run a football team like that?
fatness
Footballguy
The Redskins were 14th in rushing attempts, 20th in rushing yards, and 28th-30th in yards per rush. They suck at running the ball and have one good run blocker on their whole O-line. They're not a good run team.
Ok, but that's not really the point, the point is they are a successful offensive team thanks to their passing offense, they rode their passing attack to the playoffs last year and they invested a high draft pick in a WR in the off-season. They clearly take the view that given the current league rules which have greatly helped passing teams and resulted in historically high passing numbers the last few years that passing is the way to go and that rushing is secondary.
Edit - just reading your post again, I see you misunderstood my point. The original poster asked how you run a team like that and I explained their thinking, we weren't debating if the Redskins are a good running team but a well-run team!
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
The addition of Vernon Davis will help the run game a lot. He apparently cannot catch anymore, but is a tremendous blocker in the running game.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
With a substantial workload, kelly is almost certain to be somewhere in between terrible and great.
matt jones is expected to play still - but who knows, as NFL teams like to play fast and loose with info.
Godsbrother
Footballguy
I took him in the 15th as a potential keeper and will see how it goes.
Chaka
Footballguy
Nice cut up SSND. Personally I think he doesn't seem to consistently be quick to the hole or have much power (particularly for a guy his size). Seems like if he gets volume he will put up numbers but you can say that about pretty much anyone. If Jones goes down I see him as maybe putting up Zac Stacy type numbers, which are very nice from a fantasy perspective as that is a nice return for a very late round, deep bench, WW type pick-up. However I don't see a dynasty stash player when I watch that video.
Then again I don't get paid to scout NFL talent so what the heck do I know?
fatness
Footballguy
Gotcha.
I think the coaching staff and front office are heavily invested in showing they were/are right about Jones being the main back, which means even if he stinks they'll stick with him for awhile longer than they would "some guy". But Jones gets hurt, Jones fumbles, they're only carrying 3 RB's, so there's opportunity for Kelley. What he does with it remains to be seen. Based on the little I saw during preseason, he recognizes the hole more quickly than the other Redskin RB's (and the holes are brief when they are there), and he seems to be seeing further down the field towards the next potential tackler than the others do.With a substantial workload, kelly is almost certain to be somewhere in between terrible and great.
matt jones is expected to play still - but who knows, as NFL teams like to play fast and loose with info.
But that was preseason.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I saw a plodder JAG with very little burst and next to no "wiggle" who might fall forward for 3.3 YPC 14 times a game. I didn't see anything special - but I'm not an NFL scout, so it's possible I wasn't looking for the right thing. Trouble is, that was against the "vanilla" defensive packages of the preseason with a mix of starters and 2nd string.
nit terribly optimistic about real games against 1st string D's but time will tell.
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We are talking Daniel Snyder here. I think Deion Sanders is still being paid $10 Mil a season that goes against the salary capThe thinner that WAS bench gets the more I think the kelly owners have a chance of return on the minimal investment.
Kelly remains unrostered in my 12-team IDP, but considering the 15 starters, benches are thin. I would expect the Jones owner to add him, but then again, he drafted Matt jones, so....
that all said, color me absolutely shocked that WAS hasn't brought anyone in. How do you run a football team like that?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh snap!We are talking Daniel Snyder here. I think Deion Sanders is still being paid $10 Mil a season that goes against the salary cap
fatness
Footballguy
I can't argue with your assessment. I've seen little of him as well (just the preseason) and have read what several beat writers have been writing about him. He may be JAG but I think he's probably the best RB on the Skins roster right now. If that works out to be the case it's worth something fantasy-wise this season.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
VaTerp
Footballguy
I have not seen much of Kelley but what I have seen was not impressive and I'm relatively down in general on the Skins run game this year. He does a good job of not getting "caught in the trash" at the line of scrimmage and moves forward well. Which also happened to be good traits of Alfred Morris displayed his rookie pre-season. But I don't see Alf Morris and don't really see it translating to success in the reg season.
He's certainly worth a roster spot for early week value/potential. I play a guy who will likely either start Jones or Kelley week one.
But I don't see him emerging as a viable FF, or NFL, RB over the course of the season.
He's certainly worth a roster spot for early week value/potential. I play a guy who will likely either start Jones or Kelley week one.
But I don't see him emerging as a viable FF, or NFL, RB over the course of the season.
tone1oc
Footballguy
mr roboto
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
LawFitz
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That wasn't an NFL defense. My grandmother could have run through that bus-sized hole and slipped those weak arm tackles. Everyone looks awesome in college, especially against weak competition. You should check the preseason videos to see what's what.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Preseason Week 3 Fatness
We played them in preseason. I mean, who the hell takes the third game of the preseason like it's bull####? Bull####! We played them in the third game, everybody played three quarters. That’s why we took the damn field
We played them in preseason. I mean, who the hell takes the third game of the preseason like it's bull####? Bull####! We played them in the third game, everybody played three quarters. That’s why we took the damn field
LawFitz
Footballguy
Jokes aside, Kelley has something few lotto ticket RBs have: a good offense combined with not good competition for touches. Add to that opportunity, what seems like at least a modicum of talent and we should have our radars up. Redskins GM Scot McCloughan is one of the best talent scouts in the league. I've seen crazier things than Fat Rob getting catches when stars aligned like this in years past.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
lol
Ok, taking it play by play:
1. OL created a gap,he ran 3.5 yards through open grass, ran through a terrible arm tackle and crumbled on contact for .5 a yard. YAC means something.
2. Gigantic hole - someone missed an assignment on defense. He did the most with the carry though to be fair - looked ok. Went down hard on 1st contact, caught from behind by Washington, who's not speedy.
3. Good blocking, terrible defense. Again crumbled - 0 YAC. Again caught from across and behind by a LB moving laterally. Worse still, instead of putting his head down and muscling out another 2-3 yards, he puts the brakes on, which is an excellent way to get hurt and in the coach's doghouse. Safety first?
4. Another terrible defensive play by the Bills, with half the defense on the wrong side of the field. Successfully ran 6 yards out of bounds and avoided contact.
5. Ran through another big hole, and got .5 YAC
The theme continues - the slow mo replays do him no favors.
And remember: this is a vanilla defense. No DC shows anyone their real playbook in the preseason, not even in game 3. And I'm pretty sure without studying to read everyone's back that some of the star players weren't on the field, as teams are still using this time to evaluate for cuts.
Sometimes you need to look at the big picture - "Fat Rob" is JAG. And he's a guy who'll share carries. IF he gets the starting gig and runs away with it I'll be on board for RB3 value.
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LawFitz
Footballguy
^^^ I think you might be underselling the guy. I saw him make decisive first cuts into developing (not always fully) holes and get downhill fast. I also saw more quickness than his 4.7 forty implies. And I saw him get catches (counting both videos). Matt Jones is underwhelming and hurt. Chris Thompson is a COP back. I could see Fat Rob getting a nice slice of a nice offense, until/unless they bring in someone else. No way you start him week 1 vs Pitt, but the next few matchups after that - Dal, @NYG, Cle - look fruitful, if things break right.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Dallas is weak against the pass but somewhat solid against the run. You're underrating NYG's defense and CLE added some pieces that make me question this a bit. I think those are going to be tougher matchups than you're suggesting.
And if Matt Jones plays, who gets GL work between them? That, to me, is going to be the real indicator of fantasy value. If it's Jones, Fat Rob isn't likely to be worth starting in any of the matchups.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The Giants added NT/DT Damon "Snacks" Harrison (among other pieces) - a big part of why the Jets played the run so well last season. Cleveland will likely be horrific against the run however.
