Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

SameSongNDance

2016 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings

Recommended Posts

These are ranked assuming the format is 1PPR. The line between being apart of a RBBC and being a handcuff is thinning so some players may or may not be included. Anyway, what do yours look like.. or more importantly, who are you aggressively targeting?

 

  1. D. Henry (TEN) - I need to see this man touch the ball 20 times in a game
  2. J. McKinnon (MIN) - freaky freak
  3. C. Simms (TB) - has 3-down potential, played extremely well last year
  4. T. Coleman (ATL) - averaged 4.5 last year, good OL, would be a candidate for 20ish touches
  5. C. Michael (SEA) - may be a RBBC in SEA so I don't know if this counts
  6. B. Powell (NYJ) - skill set suited to PPR
  7. D. Washington (OAK) - would be working with a good OL and passes the eye test
  8. S. Ware (KC) - has shown he can be productive but may still have receptions siphoned off by West
  9. D. Booker (DEN) - projects as a 3-down back and I like what I've seen in the preseason
  10. T. Yeldon - Ivory's injury history
  11. C. Johnson (ARI) - candidate for 20+ touches
  12. J. Ajayi (MIA) - Foster's injury history
  13. A. Morris (DAL) - a mailbox could rush for 4+ ypc behind DAL's OL
  14. J. Starks (GB) - JAG but volume
  15. B. Cunningham (STL) - Rams suck
  16. R. Kelley (WAS) - I'm gonna pee on youuu
  17. J. Howard (CHI) - no passing game role 
  18. S. Draughn (SF) - PPR
  19. P. Perkins - the latest NYG backfield dark horse 
  20. A. Blue (HOU) - looks like he's running in mud
  21. C. Artis-Payne (CAR) - realistically needs a Newton injury as well as a Stewart injury

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In before someone says I say these aren't lotto tickets. :thumbup:  Terminology aside, I'll rank some of the guys that might actually be on waivers with 13+ round ADP

  1. D. Washington (OAK) - Should have a nice role in the offense even with Murray healthy.
  2. R. Kelley (WAS) -  High priority add for week 1. 
  3. S. Ware (KC) - I like what I've seen but Charles is still there. 
  4. D. Booker (DEN) -  He has talent but I think the feed CJA.  
  5. S. Draughn (SF) - If the Niners suck he could get a lot of work

I don't see these guys as rosterable in 12 team leagues, but I'd probably rank them

  1. P. Perkins - He's talented but crowded backfield
  2. J. Howard (CHI) - Buried on the depth chart, but not a lot of talent in front of him
  3. C. Artis-Payne (CAR) - Waiting on an injury
  4. B. Cunningham (STL) - Dont see him being relevant
  5. A. Blue (HOU) - Not sure he gets bulk of carries even if Miller goes down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SameSongNDance said:

These are ranked assuming the format is 1PPR. The line between being apart of a RBBC and being a handcuff is thinning so some players may or may not be included. Anyway, what do yours look like.. or more importantly, who are you aggressively targeting?

 

  1. D. Henry (TEN) - I need to see this man touch the ball 20 times in a game
  2. J. McKinnon (MIN) - freaky freak
  3. C. Simms (TB) - has 3-down potential, played extremely well last year
  4. T. Coleman (ATL) - averaged 4.5 last year, good OL, would be a candidate for 20ish touches
  5. C. Michael (SEA) - may be a RBBC in SEA so I don't know if this counts
  6. B. Powell (NYJ) - skill set suited to PPR
  7. D. Washington (OAK) - would be working with a good OL and passes the eye test
  8. S. Ware (KC) - has shown he can be productive but may still have receptions siphoned off by West
  9. D. Booker (DEN) - projects as a 3-down back and I like what I've seen in the preseason
  10. T. Yeldon - Ivory's injury history
  11. C. Johnson (ARI) - candidate for 20+ touches
  12. J. Ajayi (MIA) - Foster's injury history
  13. A. Morris (DAL) - a mailbox could rush for 4+ ypc behind DAL's OL
  14. J. Starks (GB) - JAG but volume
  15. B. Cunningham (STL) - Rams suck
  16. R. Kelley (WAS) - I'm gonna pee on youuu
  17. J. Howard (CHI) - no passing game role 
  18. S. Draughn (SF) - PPR
  19. P. Perkins - the latest NYG backfield dark horse 
  20. A. Blue (HOU) - looks like he's running in mud
  21. C. Artis-Payne (CAR) - realistically needs a Newton injury as well as a Stewart injury

 

 

Assuming you mean, "if the starter goes down, I like your rankings. 

I'd change a few - I have Morris in the top 5 if Zeke gets hurt - that OL is crazy huge and Morris is an underrated back who's looked good this preseason.  Starks will be a monster with no Lacy, so I'd have him top 5 as well. I like Henry / McKinnon 1-2, though you could flip flop them. Michael gets bumped down to 11 -> due to the shaky OL and track record of not being as good as we think he's going to be. Powell definitely top 5, and bump Coleman down. 

I drop Blue off the top 21, but Payne gets a bump to top 10. 

But yeah - good stab at it. I like it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice list SSND.

I think I would rather have Tyler Ervin than Alfred Blue for a RB from the Texans. Looking at the game logs Blue did enter the game before Ervin did. Ervin played in the last 2 minutes of the first half which is also when they put Savage in. So it does look like he is 3rd in the rotation right now.

Even so Ervin offers more as a receiving option than Blue and I think just a better overall player who I would take over blue as a handcuff to Miller.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Nice list SSND.

I think I would rather have Tyler Ervin than Alfred Blue for a RB from the Texans. Looking at the game logs Blue did enter the game before Ervin did. Ervin played in the last 2 minutes of the first half which is also when they put Savage in. So it does look like he is 3rd in the rotation right now.

Even so Ervin offers more as a receiving option than Blue and I think just a better overall player who I would take over blue as a handcuff to Miller.

Was going to say the same thing. I think Ervin is the guy you want if Miller goes down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, SameSongNDance said:

These are ranked assuming the format is 1PPR. The line between being apart of a RBBC and being a handcuff is thinning so some players may or may not be included. Anyway, what do yours look like.. or more importantly, who are you aggressively targeting?

 

  1. D. Henry (TEN) - I need to see this man touch the ball 20 times in a game
  2. J. McKinnon (MIN) - freaky freak
  3. C. Simms (TB) - has 3-down potential, played extremely well last year
  4. T. Coleman (ATL) - averaged 4.5 last year, good OL, would be a candidate for 20ish touches
  5. C. Michael (SEA) - may be a RBBC in SEA so I don't know if this counts
  6. B. Powell (NYJ) - skill set suited to PPR
  7. D. Washington (OAK) - would be working with a good OL and passes the eye test
  8. S. Ware (KC) - has shown he can be productive but may still have receptions siphoned off by West
  9. D. Booker (DEN) - projects as a 3-down back and I like what I've seen in the preseason
  10. T. Yeldon - Ivory's injury history
  11. C. Johnson (ARI) - candidate for 20+ touches
  12. J. Ajayi (MIA) - Foster's injury history
  13. A. Morris (DAL) - a mailbox could rush for 4+ ypc behind DAL's OL
  14. J. Starks (GB) - JAG but volume
  15. B. Cunningham (STL) - Rams suck
  16. R. Kelley (WAS) - I'm gonna pee on youuu
  17. J. Howard (CHI) - no passing game role 
  18. S. Draughn (SF) - PPR
  19. P. Perkins - the latest NYG backfield dark horse 
  20. A. Blue (HOU) - looks like he's running in mud
  21. C. Artis-Payne (CAR) - realistically needs a Newton injury as well as a Stewart injury

 

 

I like your list, but think Booker is too low. He's definitely more than a 3 down back 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, FGITLOTR said:

I like your list, but think Booker is too low. He's definitely more than a 3 down back 

I'm pretty sure he means a three down back, not a third down back. Unless you mean he's a four down back ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ravens backfield looks pretty muddled but I expect Dixon to emerge as the leader in October. You can get him for free or very cheap right now. 22-107 / 2-21 before the injury. No surgery, the hope is he'll be back Week 4.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, SameSongNDance said:

 

D. Booker (DEN) - projects as a 3-down back and I like what I've seen in the preseason

 

 

Curious what you like so much, as he is averaging less than 3 ypc on a team dedicated to running the ball down people's throats. 

 

Anderson is performing way better, which is expected. What isn't expected is that Hillman has gained about 30% more yards than Booker on about half the carries. So while other RBs in DEN are having very good to great PSs Booker is floundering, though he has flashed a bit catching the ball. 

 

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Powell and Sims are going to see enough work even with Martin and Forte healty to be flex plays in PPR at the worst.  If either of the lead backs misses time they will be worth solid RB2's at a minimum.  I don't think theses guys are lotto tickets but solid depth with huge upside.

Henry, Coleman, Washington, Yeldon, Johnson, Ajayi, Michael, Morris and Starks are all going to get some decent playing time this year.  Maybe not enough to be weekly starters but they will be getting touches.  If the other back in the time share goes down they should all be solid plays.

As far as lotto tickets, I see them as McKinnon, Booker, Ware, Cunnigham, Howard and Ervin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, tone1oc said:

In before someone says I say these aren't lotto tickets. :thumbup:  Terminology aside, I'll rank some of the guys that might actually be on waivers with 13+ round ADP

  1. D. Washington (OAK) - Should have a nice role in the offense even with Murray healthy.
  2. R. Kelley (WAS) -  High priority add for week 1. 
  3. S. Ware (KC) - I like what I've seen but Charles is still there. 
  4. D. Booker (DEN) -  He has talent but I think the feed CJA.  
  5. S. Draughn (SF) - If the Niners suck he could get a lot of work

I don't see these guys as rosterable in 12 team leagues, but I'd probably rank them

  1. P. Perkins - He's talented but crowded backfield
  2. J. Howard (CHI) - Buried on the depth chart, but not a lot of talent in front of him
  3. C. Artis-Payne (CAR) - Waiting on an injury
  4. B. Cunningham (STL) - Dont see him being relevant
  5. A. Blue (HOU) - Not sure he gets bulk of carries even if Miller goes down.

1) Is Washington the guy?  I thought they had another kid too?  

2)  R Kelley - sex jokes aside, I see him as a potential Alfred Morris redux.

3)  Spencer for hire is a guy I love.  He can play ball. 

4) Booker seems mired in a RBBC at best.  Denver's RB situation was  total #### show last year.  CJA is too good to steal the job from outright.  

5) S. Draughn....he will catch a lot of passes.  Woodhead light.  I see him getting between 150-220 PPR points.

 

1.  Perkins is in a backfield crowded with average talents.  If he's got real talent, he will rise.

2.  Chicago Bears RB situation is an avoid for me.  RBBC on a crap offense.  

3.  CAP -  If Stewart gets hurt, you still have CAM so his upside is capped.

4. Benny - I think he's a dud.  Wouldn't bother with him.  Gurley makes that offense go.  Without his talent, it stops.

5.  I think Blue has been surpassed by Tyler Ervin.  Not sure though.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Love the Chris Johnson call.  Talk about being left for dead.   Nice sneaky pick.  He's a target in my startup auction tonight for sure.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think Malcolm Brown may be the guy to take over in event of a Gurley injury... Cunningham's role stays the same.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks like you ranked the lotto tickets based on your perception of their talent and the team situation. That is fine, but I think the other factor that you might not be accounting for is the probability that the ticket gets their number called. Injuries are difficult to predict, however someone like Foster, Stewart or Mathews seem likely to miss time at some point to injury. Matt Jones is already hurt. Forte is older and has been fighting a hamstring injury. We think Rawls will be ready, but it's still a bit mysterious what really happened with his ankle. Then we also have the guys that could lose their job to ineffectiveness. Some of these players have track records that indicate they might be very good.  Matt Jones, L. Murray, Langford. 

So to me, that gives a significant bump to R. Kelley. On paper, he is one of the worst NFL RB prospects around. However, the only thing between him and being the starting RB for a potent offense is a bad RB with a bum shoulder. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

 

So to me, that gives a significant bump to R. Kelley. On paper, he is one of the worst NFL RB prospects around. However, the only thing between him and being the starting RB for a potent offense is a bad RB with a bum shoulder. 

Interesting that you'd factor in injury potential, but don't factor in a team that is RB poor like WAS or IND adding a player through trade or waiver pickup as teams cut to their final rosters in the coming week. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

Interesting that you'd factor in injury potential, but don't factor in a team that is RB poor like WAS or IND adding a player through trade or waiver pickup as teams cut to their final rosters in the coming week. 

Certainly something to consider as well. It's tough to see Indy or Washington not adding a RB at cuts. It's also hard to imagine why they didn't add a RB of note through all of the offseason. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

McKinnon is my pick here.  I have him in every single league this season, often overpaying by a round or two.  He's a guy that if Peterson goes down will win leagues for people.  He also may have flex value even with Peterson still healthy.  

I would also rank Alfred Morris higher.  If Elliott gets hurt Morris would instantly be a top 10 RB behind that line.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

question on mckinnon, is asiata still around?  i recall when AP was missing they split work pretty evenly if not leaning towards him

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good one on McKinnon, although he's getting drafted higher than lotto tickets.  

I would say:

Jonathan Williams, BUF

Tyler Ervin, HOU

McCoy seems like as fine a choice to break down as any other starting RB.  I think about Karlos last year in BUF, and I like Williams a lot more than Karlos coming out.  

Ervin I like because I think he can be fantasy relevant without getting 20 touches.  I also think Brock is Captain Checkdown for the most part, and if Miller were to go down, I think Gio-type numbers are easily attainable, with or without the sorry presence of Alfred Blue.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, SameSongNDance said:

 

 

 

  1. J. Howard (CHI) - no passing game ro
  2. A. Blue (HOU) - looks like he's running in mud

 

 

Ervin is the guy to own in Houston and Carey is currently ahead of Howard on the depth chart.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I haven't seen this guy listed yet.  I play in a league with a deep bench.  And Karlos Williams will be taking one of those spots at least until week 5 once his suspension is over.  If he gets in shape and is signed to a team like Indy, or Washington, or anyone with a major injury, it could be a season winner. If not he is an easy cut.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, FGITLOTR said:

I like your list, but think Booker is too low. He's definitely more than a 3 down back 

So he punts too?

:shock:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, iamkoza said:

question on mckinnon, is asiata still around?  i recall when AP was missing they split work pretty evenly if not leaning towards him

Matt Asiata is still with the Vikings.

Pretty solid player and in a situation where Peterson were not available Asiata may get short yardage and goal line work. He was used as such in 2014 after Peterson was suspended.

McKinnon is very effective gaining yards after contact, so I don't really see a need to spell him in these situations, but that is what they did before. It could just be became Jet was a rookie that year and that will not be the case now.

Asiata gets 3rd down situations sometimes as well due to his pass blocking ability.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

So he punts too?

:shock:

Not sure if Booker can punt or not. He does have 100% completion percentage on his one pass attempt though. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good thread topic!

I'm in a deep roster league so my lotto picks are kind of down the list a bit: 

  • Zach Zenner - Abdullah handcuff with some 3 down appeal
  • Shaun Draughn - PPR upside and Carlos Hyde is an injury red flag
  • Kenjon Barner -  Ryan Matthews is made of paper mache
  • Darren Sproles - PPR wildcard, tied with Barner. His value goes up as well when Matthews finally succumbs to injury at some point inevitably.
  • Tyler Gafney - If L Blount goes down, who else do they have to gain the tough yards?
  • Jalen Richard - a handcuff of a handcuff..."you gotta be kidding me??" you might say, but has the talent to jump the depth chart quickly.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't trust Reggie Bush to ever help my fantasy team, but if CJ Spiller is on the wire, been hearing some buzz lately that he's rounding into shape.  It looked like a perfect spot for him last year to take over the Darren Sproles role, but it just didn't work out.  Again, if we are talking about him as a lottery ticket.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

Don't laugh...but what about Reggie Bush and C.J. Spiller?  

Did I fall in a time warp and go back to 2013?  My calendar still says 2016

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Thunderlips said:

Don't laugh...but what about Reggie Bush and C.J. Spiller?  

Spiller looked spry in limited action, could come out of nowhere in PPR leagues...definitely like him as an ingram handcuff...and as a deep roster add in deep PPR leagues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Thunderlips said:

Don't laugh...but what about Reggie Bush and C.J. Spiller?  

Spiller could be a deep sleeper. He apparently has gotten a lot of looks in the pre-season and looks great. I could really see him having a solid year in Sean Payton's offense who loves using gadget players like Spiller. 

In regards to the general topic and Charles Sims, I think people might be a little disappointed in his performance if Doug Martin were to go down. Obviously he'd still be worth having because of the volume (I think Mike James/Peyton Barber would get 5-10 carries a game though) but I'm not so sure how good he would actually be. IMO, Sims compliments Doug perfectly as Sims is great catching out of the backfield and is excellent with screen passes. He really isn't the greatest runner though as he seems to have trouble with his vision/making decisions on which hole to hit and as a result he studders and his feet get tangled up a lot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. Ware

2. C-Mike

3. Zenner

4. Coleman

5. Hightower 

 

Just off the top of my head I like all these guys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guy in my league (who makes a lot of wild card moves) dropped Spiller for AlMo. Full PPR. Don't really need him but might pick him up just for block.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regarding Spiller - was looking at this yesterday.  In the third preseason game's first half (with the starters) Spiller had 4 rushes and 3 receptions.  Ingram had 7 rushes and 1 reception.  If Spiller is going to get a 45% chunk of the workload, plus most of the receptions, he's going to be valuable provided he can stay healthy.  If Ingram got hurt (which prior to 2015 wasn't such a shocking event), watch out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If all 6 of these lost starters ahead of them, I'd want them in this order..

 

1 - Ware

2 - Sims

3 - Coleman

4 - Booker

5a - Henry

5b - Morris (EDIT)

 

I'll let you guys fall for C-Mike again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, JFS171 said:

Regarding Spiller - was looking at this yesterday.  In the third preseason game's first half (with the starters) Spiller had 4 rushes and 3 receptions.  Ingram had 7 rushes and 1 reception.  If Spiller is going to get a 45% chunk of the workload, plus most of the receptions, he's going to be valuable provided he can stay healthy.  If Ingram got hurt (which prior to 2015 wasn't such a shocking event), watch out.

I actually watched the game...Spiller looked better than he's looked in years.  Rejuvenation almost.  Small sample size, sure.  But worth keeping an eye on for certain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Dutch Kincade said:

I'd have Ware and Artis-Payne damn close to the top.

what's the deal with West in KC? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

what's the deal with West in KC? 

No one knows yet but the Ware supporters are convinced that not only does Ware get the lion's share of the work in the event of a Charles' injury, but that he'll cut out a significant chunk of Charles' workload when healthy too. 

 

West seems like a Reid type of RB. He's great catching the ball and he can turn out a big play very suddenly. We'll see, but I'm holding as a West owner. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

When you look at video from college, Jonathan Williams jumps out. Power, vision and a few moves. Is he 100% healthy?

So many backs there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What's up with the Washington RB's? Is Robert Kelley starting week 1 if Matt Jones is still hurt?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

what's the deal with West in KC? 

Pretty much droppable.  3rd on the depth chart behind Ware.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, shady inc said:

What's up with the Washington RB's? Is Robert Kelley starting week 1 if Matt Jones is still hurt?

 

I don't like Washington's RB's much this year.  Their starting center is awful and the guy they attempted to trade for from the Patriots failed his physical.  The OL has issues.  Pass.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, massraider said:

So many backs there.

Yes. But Jonathan Williams seems to have great RB skills, including power, vision and moves. Gillislee had a couple of good runs late last year, but he's not in the same class as Williams. He didn't do anything in Miami. There are rumors that Reggie Bush may be cut. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, TripItUp said:

I actually watched the game...Spiller looked better than he's looked in years.  Rejuvenation almost.  Small sample size, sure.  But worth keeping an eye on for certain.

Yep, me too.  I moved him up my draft boards significantly after this game.

Everyone got excited when Spiller ended up on the Saints high-powered offense last year, but he obviously disappointed.  Rumors I read said he didn't pick up on the playbook.  If he has the playbook figured out this year and doesn't have to think while he's playing, he could be one of the best late-round RB picks this year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So is everyone confident that Bilal Powell will receive the lions share of the work if something happens to Forte?

Wouldn't Khiry Robinson have a legitimate shot at significant PT?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Chaka said:

So is everyone confident that Bilal Powell will receive the lions share of the work if something happens to Forte?

Wouldn't Khiry Robinson have a legitimate shot at significant PT?

Powell is familiar with the system and played well last year. Robinson would probably be involved, but I still think Powell would see most of the work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.