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SameSongNDance

2016 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings

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5 minutes ago, groin pains said:

He really has not had the snaps to gauge if he in fact has improved.  What I can tell you is Jennings is NOT the answer.  Perkins has looked good with his limited touches.  I would hope he has improved since preseason.  If you have the room, I would roster him and see what news comes out of practice next week.

Good to hear. I snagged Perkins off waivers this week and was looking for some clarity. Hoping he is at the very least a serviceable flex down the stretch.

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3 minutes ago, RenegadeRoy said:

Good to hear. I snagged Perkins off waivers this week and was looking for some clarity. Hoping he is at the very least a serviceable flex down the stretch.

Hoping to grab Perkins as well to back up Jennings. I'm carrying two kickers this week because I really don't want to drop Tucker. But, I'll be kicking myself if reports come out early next week that Perkins role is expanding (waivers process on Wednesdays).

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1 minute ago, tricky92 said:

Hoping to grab Perkins as well to back up Jennings. I'm carrying two kickers this week because I really don't want to drop Tucker. But, I'll be kicking myself if reports come out early next week that Perkins role is expanding (waivers process on Wednesdays).

Drop a kicker, dude... unless your league has insane bonuses for kickers or something.

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17 minutes ago, groin pains said:

He really has not had the snaps to gauge if he in fact has improved.  What I can tell you is Jennings is NOT the answer.  Perkins has looked good with his limited touches.  I would hope he has improved since preseason.  If you have the room, I would roster him and see what news comes out of practice next week.

Do you expect that it will be Perkins and not Darkwa that gets first crack at being the starter if Jennings is benched?

They gave all the big back carries to Darkwa when Jennings got injured, but things could have changed.

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33 minutes ago, RenegadeRoy said:

Drop a kicker, dude... unless your league has insane bonuses for kickers or something.

Tucker has been scoring like an RB2 most of the season. It's not as simple as it sounds.

His offense sets up plenty of chances every week because they are good enough flip field position often, but not proficient enough to score a lot of TDs. Plus, their defense keeps them in close games, which negates the need for desperation shots on 4th down.

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3 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

Tucker has been scoring like an RB2 most of the season. It's not as simple as it sounds.

His offense sets up plenty of chances every week because they are good enough flip field position often, but not proficient enough to score a lot of TDs. Plus, their defense keeps them in close games, which negates the need for desperation shots on 4th down.

Who cares if he is scoring like a rb2. All kickers do. Tucker is the 2nd best kicker in my league so he is good but I could take any of the next 10 kickers and get close to the same scoring. Now the upgrade to get a workhorse RB is huge. 

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29 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

Tucker has been scoring like an RB2 most of the season. It's not as simple as it sounds.

His offense sets up plenty of chances every week because they are good enough flip field position often, but not proficient enough to score a lot of TDs. Plus, their defense keeps them in close games, which negates the need for desperation shots on 4th down.

Alright. Well, every QB scores more than every RB so I should roster more QBs, right? You're comparing two positions that have no connection when you should be comparing within the position. The dropoff from Tucker to the next WW K is what you should be looking at. Are you ever going to be able to trade Tucker for an RB2? No. You're not. Drop the kicker on bye, no one else is going to pick him up.

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2 minutes ago, RenegadeRoy said:

Alright. Well, every QB scores more than every RB so I should roster more QBs, right? You're comparing two positions that have no connection when you should be comparing within the position. The dropoff from Tucker to the next WW K is what you should be looking at. Are you ever going to be able to trade Tucker for an RB2? No. You're not. Drop the kicker on bye, no one else is going to pick him up.

Well, since you brought it up, Tucker has 26 more points scored than the kicker I'm currently holding to use this week. That's fairly significant.

I wouldn't hold it against anyone for holding the Vikings or Broncos through a bye either. Having an advantage at any position week to week over your opponent is good stuff.

 

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25 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

Well, since you brought it up, Tucker has 26 more points scored than the kicker I'm currently holding to use this week. That's fairly significant.

I wouldn't hold it against anyone for holding the Vikings or Broncos through a bye either. Having an advantage at any position week to week over your opponent is good stuff.

 

You are not getting it. There is very little value between the top kicker and the 12th one. In any given week any kicker can throw up a dud (tucker has 3 of them over 7 weeks). There is no way to know which kicker will win in a given week, so no, 26 points is not significant over 7 weeks  

When end it comes to defenses the Broncos and Vikings are the only two that I would hold through a bye. That is because they are consistently dominant. 

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4 minutes ago, skinsrule05 said:

You are not getting it. There is very little value between the top kicker and the 12th one. In any given week any kicker can throw up a dud (tucker has 3 of them over 7 weeks). There is no way to know which kicker will win in a given week, so no, 26 points is not significant over 7 weeks  

When end it comes to defenses the Broncos and Vikings are the only two that I would hold through a bye. That is because they are consistently dominant. 

Oh, I'm getting it, I just don't agree with you, especially in regards to an RB who hasn't really done anything yet. It's all speculation.

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4 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

Oh, I'm getting it, I just don't agree with you, especially in regards to an RB who hasn't really done anything yet. It's all speculation.

Ok, try this, when was the last time you or anyone you know says they won their league because of their kicker. Now have you ever heard that for a RB that came out of nowhere. 

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2 minutes ago, skinsrule05 said:

Ok, try this, when was the last time you or anyone you know says they won their league because of their kicker. Now have you ever heard that for a RB that came out of nowhere. 

I have routinely won leagues because I made sure that I was out-scoring my opponents at the positions that most people ignore... kicker, defense, and TE to an extent. As a group, it makes a big difference.

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1 hour ago, tricky92 said:

Tucker has been scoring like an RB2 most of the season. It's not as simple as it sounds.

His offense sets up plenty of chances every week because they are good enough flip field position often, but not proficient enough to score a lot of TDs. Plus, their defense keeps them in close games, which negates the need for desperation shots on 4th down.

I've got your back tricky.  I just snagged up Peyton Barber, but I'm strongly thinking about dropping him and using that roster spot on Tucker, just to have kicker locked in the rest of the year.  I can probably grab Barber again next week when I drop Cairo Santos... or a reasonable proxy for Barber (Dixon, Perkins, Kelley, Farrow, Bibbs, etc. etc.)

The only way that backfires is if Rodgers goes down this week; then I might or might not get Barber back.

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4 minutes ago, davearm said:

I've got your back tricky.  I just snagged up Peyton Barber, but I'm strongly thinking about dropping him and using that roster spot on Tucker, just to have kicker locked in the rest of the year.  I can probably grab Barber again next week when I drop Cairo Santos... or a reasonable proxy for Barber (Dixon, Perkins, Kelley, Farrow, Bibbs, etc. etc.)

The only way that backfires is if Rodgers goes down this week; then I might or might not get Barber back.

It's definitely something to think about, right? It at least merits conversation.

 

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I'm thinking of starting a new thread titled "2016 Kicker Lotto Ticket Rankings".  What do you guys think?

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3 minutes ago, daylight said:

I'm thinking of starting a new thread titled "2016 Kicker Lotto Ticket Rankings".  What do you guys think?

LOL

Sorry for the hijack. I'm done.

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1 minute ago, tricky92 said:

It's definitely something to think about, right? It at least merits conversation.

 

Yep.  What we're talking about is letting go of 1 lottery ticket, for 1 week.  Nobody's talking about using 2 roster spots on kickers all year.

I'll do the same thing when the Denver D/ST has their bye.

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1 hour ago, hamsterdam said:

Do you expect that it will be Perkins and not Darkwa that gets first crack at being the starter if Jennings is benched?

They gave all the big back carries to Darkwa when Jennings got injured, but things could have changed.

I do expect Perkins to get the next crack at it.  No inside info, just a gut call. 

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11 minutes ago, tricky92 said:

LOL

Sorry for the hijack. I'm done.

No problem - I thought it was funny.  

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3 minutes ago, daylight said:

No problem - I thought it was funny.  

Your post made me laugh out loud! That was great :-)

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8 minutes ago, mnmplayer said:

Charc West needs to be upgraded on the Charles news. Doubt Charles gets going this year.

Added to the Honorables list.

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 JAMES STARKS is going underappreciated in this thread and should be added. We have to at least keep him on the radar.

 

 True, it will be 2-3 weeks or more until he is ready to return, but he has been dropped most everywhere. Yahoo says 6% ownership.

Starks has a history of run with Green Bay, and like him or not, they may depend on him quite a bit as we near the fantasy playoffs. Everyone tends to think he is a more ordinary type of guy, but solid low end RB2-ish volume is absolute gold near the end of the fantasy season.  Even though he may have limited upside, the organization has always seemed to keep going back for more with Starks.

I am not convinced they are fully content with Ty Montgomery, and Knile Davis seems to just be an emergency depth signing. Davis may grow into a role there, but at least for now it doesn't look like it, though we should know more this weekend.

 

 This is probably a situation where we have to listen to words coming out of Green Bay as his return nears. Staying ahead of the curve, we would likely have to get Starks a full week or two ahead of the pack. He has a big enough "name" where many fantasy players will  tracking him in the next few weeks.

NOTE - They have a juicy matchup with the Bears in playoff week 15.

 

TZM

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I agree that Starks should be on the radar... but he's proven multiple times he isn't that great. Even when he comes back, I don't think he takes over the starting role. At best it'll be a tandem with Davis. At worst he's Davis' handcuff. 

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Bump #2 today (Oct 28) with this week's updates in red.  Moved Booker to the Too Late list.  Moved Peyton Barber to the top as Bloom said in the Oct 25 The Couch that he believes this year's "out of nowhere" RB Lottery ticket is Peyton Barber.  Also moved D Henry up as Bloom's guest Mike Tagliere said his favorite Lotto Ticket is Henry if anything happens to D Murry.  Also moved Powell to the bottom of the Potential's list b/c his turf toe, resurgence of Forte and NYJ is a mess.

EDIT: moved Dion Lewis to the top of the Potentials and Mike Davis from Potentials to Honorables based on recent comments by @JFS171

EDIT #2:  Added Starks to the Honorables.

What possible Season Changing / Champion Maker (Lotto Ticket) RB's are out there on waivers (or possibly a buy low)?  RB's who could put up Top 5 RB numbers ROS.  We are talking preemptive.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie : "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season."

Potential Season Changers / Champion Makers - Here is my Post-Week-7 list, loosely ranked:

  • Dion Lewis NE - UPDATE:  finally practicing this week?  May be Too Late soon
  • Peyton Barber - Bloom called Peyton Barber a Potential Season Changer in Oct 25 WW Audible and that he thinks J Rodgers cannot hold up on a 25-35 touch per game pace
  • D. Henry  TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities
  • D. Williams PIT - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) - Bloom *continues* to advise to hold him at all costs in The Audible
  • A. Morris DAL - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
  • M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here - UPDATE: Week of Oct 24th:  on the injury report
  • Rawls SEA - a ton of potential - OL issues didn't seem to matter last year with his 5+ YPC - nervous owners may have dropped him
  • Farrow SDC - @JFS171 : "he's a very solidly built dude with some CJ Anderson type of running to his game.  Not a speed demon, but he can get what's blocked and has some agility to get some more.  I don't know how his hands are, but the situation is very ripe for a late season king maker to emerge.  Gordon's getting SO MUCH VOLUME... and volume doesn't always equal injury, but it's more chances to get injured IMO.  If Gordon goes down, McCluster isn't taking over the workhorse role.  Prime situation for a handcuff IMO."  UPDATE: Out of respect for @TZMarkie and @JFS171I am moving him to the Potential list
  • B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance - UPDATE: Week of Oct 24th:  has turf toe

Honorable Mention (potential top 12 ROS) (no particular order):

  • Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - is this a changing of the guard situation? How good is WAS OL? - Oct 16: 5-59-0 <-- nice line but Jones also had a nice 16-135-1 line - I thought PHI's defense was good?? UPDATE:  this week Gruden is saying Kelley would start if Jones (knee) can't go
  • K. Dixon  BAL - looks like it's West's show going forward
  • Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production? 
  • W. Smallwood PHI -  4-6-0 Oct 16 while Matthews went 9-60-0 
  • A. Ellington ARZ
  • Malcolm Brown STL
  • DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back.  Horrible situation for fantasy" - used more than Richard Oct 16
  • Jalen Richard OAK - thanks to @davearm for this one and per @austinball "Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier" - out used by DeAndre Washington Oct 16
  • Paul Perkins NYG - thanks @austinball Can he produce like a Top 5 RB if he gets the chance? UPDATE: Looked good Oct 23, how long can McAdoo stick with Jennings?  Bloom said this week he thought Jennings looked "done"
  • Hightower - thanks to @Rodrigo Duterte who states "would be an automatic RB2" - I've added him to the Honorables as I don't see him as a Season Changer / Lotto Ticket
  • Don Jackson GB - running with the 1's in practice Oct 19th UPDATE:  hand not broken - I'm leaving him on this list based on the big unknown alone
  • K. Carey CHI - UPDATE:  Bloom said this week he doesn't think Carey is very good but there could be volume here
  • Lorenzo Taliaferro - per @thehoch and others adding him to the Honorable List but I'm not seeing it
  • Kapri Bibbs DEN - adding him per @Buck Bradcanon - now with the news of CJ we need to consider Booker's backup - good call Buck
  • Mike Davis SF FROM ROTOWORLD: (Oct 17) thanks to  @JFS171 :  "Mike Davis rushed five times for 13 yards and caught 1-of-3 targets for six yards Week 6 against the Bills.  When Carlos Hyde briefly left the game with a shoulder injury, Davis took over instead of Shaun Draughn. Davis out-snapped Draughn 24-to-5 and out-touched him 6-to-1. It is only one game, but it looks like Davis is establishing himself as Hyde's handcuff. " UPDATE:  I replaced Draughn with Davis on this list
  • C. West KC - per @mnmplayer - with the news about Charles not looking good ROS
  • James Starks GB - out of respect for @TZMarkie and @RenegadeRoy added Starks to the Honorables to "keep him on the radar" - as a Packer Homie I am not sold - he just doesn't look as dynamic as last year but who knows?  Could be a nice volume play down the stretch.  Not a King Maker IMHO.

Too Late for preemptive pickup (the cat is outta the bag) - at least in my two 12 team leagues these guys are long gone:

  • D. Booker DEN - Here's the thread on Booker: Devontae Booker - CJ has a knee issue and may be out multiple weeks, if you don't have him now it is probably Too Late
  • Ware KC -  He is a "must roster, must hold" for sure now and if available will be a hot WW pickup this week.
  • Knile Davis GB - whatever his production, highly likely to be rostered by now and does not qualify as a preemptive
  • Jay Ajayi MIA - whatever happens in MIA, highly likely to be rostered by now and does not qualify as a preemptive
  • J. Rodgers TBB - was likely taken off waivers after his breakout 30 carry Oct 16 game

Dropable

  • Howard CHI - Apparently was a 2 hit wonder for a desperate Fox

P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here:  2016 WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings

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The Honorables list is getting long - do you guys want me to break it into a "Tier 1" and "Tier 2" Honorables list?  thoughts?

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10 hours ago, Wooderson said:

Surprised Kelley hasn't moved to the top list. 

If McCoy Jones was out for the year do you see Kelley as Top 5 ROS?

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I picked up Dion Lewis today after weeks of staring at him thanks to this thread.

Also, 2 or 3 weeks ago I picked up Devontae Booker because of this thread. Now, if you've ventured into the Booker thread you might have seen what happened there (traded booker to the CJA owner for Derrick Henry because I own Demarco about 2 hours before the news about CJ became known)

 

There is a lot of great information on this board and I want to thank everyone.

 

This thread though? This thread is Gold, Jerry.

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 I don't know if we have to break them down into tiers really.

 

I think the fact we have the entire list here working and updated fairly regularly is pretty much all we need.

 FWIW-  dropped a second QB in one league (which I virtually never roster anyway) and snagged Paul Perkins.  The rumors are starting to churn where the GMEN may "see what they've got" in Perkins.

 I don't think this could be a season changer type of pickup, but he may grow into a solid RB2 type later in the season, and we all know how valuable that is.

 Perkins was apparently the main back  on their best drive last week.  (but still didn't do much)  He is sitting on most wires with ownership at 2% or less on most major sites.

 They are on a bye this week obviously, but making a move now (if you have an expendable roster spot) may enable you to get him before the rest of your owners pull the trigger next week.

 

 

 TZM

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can't believe nobody has mentioned this or that he flown so far under the radar, that hasn't even been added to the list.

there's a gargantuan that, if i had to bet, will be playing on thanksgiving.  people are forgetting across the board that IR isn't what it used to be.

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3 hours ago, daylight said:

If McCoy was out for the year do you see Kelley as Top 5 ROS?

Say what now? What does McCoy have to do with Kelley?

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1 hour ago, kd1 said:

can't believe nobody has mentioned this or that he flown so far under the radar, that hasn't even been added to the list.

there's a gargantuan that, if i had to bet, will be playing on thanksgiving.  people are forgetting across the board that IR isn't what it used to be.

Go on....

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1 hour ago, kd1 said:

can't believe nobody has mentioned this or that he flown so far under the radar, that hasn't even been added to the list.

there's a gargantuan that, if i had to bet, will be playing on thanksgiving.  people are forgetting across the board that IR isn't what it used to be.

AP?

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16 minutes ago, kd1 said:

um yeah.

http://www.metro.us/new-york/adrian-peterson-to-return-to-vikings-football-action-soon-fantasy-update/zsJpjx---8ACsvbe17Ivk/

minnesota radio is allegedly convinced he'll be playing thanksgiving.  and the schedule down the stretch is super juicy.

in agreement with you. thanks for putting this on my radar. added to watch list in all leagues so i do t forget about him. imo a little to early to make a move, hopefully i can wait another 2 weks.

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1 minute ago, rafbennett said:

in agreement with you. thanks for putting this on my radar. added to watch list in all leagues so i do t forget about him. imo a little to early to make a move, hopefully i can wait another 2 weks.

not too early imo.  it's one tweet away that could come at any time from having to blow your entire FAAB on him if you wait.  he's completely off the radar and free right now.  adrian effing peterson.  rb1 in many drafts this year and every year.  if you believe that he could be back by thanksgiving, i wouldn't wait personally.  it's a 3 week hold.  at minimum, real info will come out in that timespan, and you should have a clear picture of whether to hold longer or drop him.  he seems to have completely slipped the collective mind of the public.  all based on an initial report that wasn't from the team that he would be out "at least 3 or 4 months".  

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1 hour ago, kd1 said:

not too early imo.  it's one tweet away that could come at any time from having to blow your entire FAAB on him if you wait.  he's completely off the radar and free right now.  adrian effing peterson.  rb1 in many drafts this year and every year.  if you believe that he could be back by thanksgiving, i wouldn't wait personally.  it's a 3 week hold.  at minimum, real info will come out in that timespan, and you should have a clear picture of whether to hold longer or drop him.  he seems to have completely slipped the collective mind of the public.  all based on an initial report that wasn't from the team that he would be out "at least 3 or 4 months".  

 

 I had forgotten this, or realistically in the back of my mind I thought the Vikes would hold him out until absolutely necessary. Giving him the longest possible time to recover.

Think about it, it already looks like they are going to be a lock for the playoffs. Well, most would bet they make it anyway. Lets say the Vikes win 3 out of the next 4.  (don't have the schedule up in front of me) The point is, why wouldn't they hold Peterson out until the bitter end, hoping for a healthy AP for a playoff run?

 If that happens, it could easily be week 16 or 17, and week 16 is championship week for fantasy. If they knew full well (which no one does now, but the picture won't be as muddled in the coming weeks) they were going to make the playoffs, what would be the risk in bringing him back prior to week 17 at the earliest?

 

 Not trying to dampen this potential monster play, just saying lets try and put it into perspective.

 I guess I do agree with kd1 though in that if there is any possibility, we are going to have to act soon.  For as soon as the first reports come out saying he is possibly coming back, he will vanish from all wires instantly.

 Weeks 14 and 15 are the real bread and butter weeks, with skirmishes against JAX and INDY respectively. He could realistically be back by then.

Championship week 16 is a no go for me though, vs. GB. I don't know about you lot, but even if I didn't want to start AP in a few of those weeks or I didn't want to "trust it", I sure as Hell wouldn't mind having AP on my bench and playing "keep away" from my opponents rosters. :wub:

 I always factor in 1-2 of those guys near the end of season if I can.

 

 TZM

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Sat Oct 29 Bump with this week's updates in red.  A huge thanks to @kd1 for suggesting A Peterson MN!  I placed him 6th on the loosely ranked Potential list.

What possible Season Changing / Champion Maker (Lotto Ticket) RB's are out there on waivers (or possibly a buy low)?  RB's who could put up Top 5 RB numbers ROS.  We are talking preemptive.

To paraphrase @TZMarkie : "This is for re-draft and we are looking for the ones with the best combination of availability, upside and possibility of a big workload. That combination would likely give the average owner the best chance at hitting the "lottery ticket RB" that could change an owners season."

Potential Season Changers / Champion Makers - Here is my Post-Week-7 list, loosely ranked:

  • Dion Lewis NE - UPDATE:  finally practicing this week?  May be Too Late soon
  • Peyton Barber - Bloom called Peyton Barber a Potential Season Changer in Oct 25 WW Audible and that he thinks J Rodgers cannot hold up on a 25-35 touch per game pace
  • D. Henry  TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities
  • D. Williams PIT - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) - Bloom *continues* to advise to hold him at all costs in The Audible
  • A. Morris DAL - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
  • A Peterson MN - A huge thanks to @kd1 for this - rumors that he will be back for Thanksgiving
  • M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here - UPDATE: Week of Oct 24th:  on the injury report
  • Rawls SEA - a ton of potential - OL issues didn't seem to matter last year with his 5+ YPC - nervous owners may have dropped him
  • Farrow SDC - @JFS171 : "he's a very solidly built dude with some CJ Anderson type of running to his game.  Not a speed demon, but he can get what's blocked and has some agility to get some more.  I don't know how his hands are, but the situation is very ripe for a late season king maker to emerge.  Gordon's getting SO MUCH VOLUME... and volume doesn't always equal injury, but it's more chances to get injured IMO.  If Gordon goes down, McCluster isn't taking over the workhorse role.  Prime situation for a handcuff IMO."  UPDATE: Out of respect for @TZMarkie and @JFS171I am moving him to the Potential list
  • B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance - UPDATE: Week of Oct 24th:  has turf toe

Honorable Mention (potential top 12 ROS) (no particular order):

  • Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - is this a changing of the guard situation? How good is WAS OL? - Oct 16: 5-59-0 <-- nice line but Jones also had a nice 16-135-1 line - I thought PHI's defense was good?? UPDATE:  this week Gruden is saying Kelley would start if Jones (knee) can't go
  • K. Dixon  BAL - looks like it's West's show going forward
  • Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production? 
  • W. Smallwood PHI -  4-6-0 Oct 16 while Matthews went 9-60-0 
  • A. Ellington ARZ
  • Malcolm Brown STL
  • DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back.  Horrible situation for fantasy" - used more than Richard Oct 16
  • Jalen Richard OAK - thanks to @davearm for this one and per @austinball "Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier" - out used by DeAndre Washington Oct 16
  • Paul Perkins NYG - thanks @austinball Can he produce like a Top 5 RB if he gets the chance? UPDATE: Looked good Oct 23, how long can McAdoo stick with Jennings?  Bloom said this week he thought Jennings looked "done"
  • Hightower - thanks to @Rodrigo Duterte who states "would be an automatic RB2" - I've added him to the Honorables as I don't see him as a Season Changer / Lotto Ticket
  • Don Jackson GB - running with the 1's in practice Oct 19th UPDATE:  hand not broken - I'm leaving him on this list based on the big unknown alone
  • K. Carey CHI - UPDATE:  Bloom said this week he doesn't think Carey is very good but there could be volume here
  • Lorenzo Taliaferro - per @thehoch and others adding him to the Honorable List but I'm not seeing it
  • Kapri Bibbs DEN - adding him per @Buck Bradcanon - now with the news of CJ we need to consider Booker's backup - good call Buck
  • Mike Davis SF FROM ROTOWORLD: (Oct 17) thanks to  @JFS171 :  "Mike Davis rushed five times for 13 yards and caught 1-of-3 targets for six yards Week 6 against the Bills.  When Carlos Hyde briefly left the game with a shoulder injury, Davis took over instead of Shaun Draughn. Davis out-snapped Draughn 24-to-5 and out-touched him 6-to-1. It is only one game, but it looks like Davis is establishing himself as Hyde's handcuff. " UPDATE:  I replaced Draughn with Davis on this list
  • C. West KC - per @mnmplayer - with the news about Charles not looking good ROS
  • James Starks GB - out of respect for @TZMarkie and @RenegadeRoy added Starks to the Honorables to "keep him on the radar" - as a Packer Homie I am not sold - he just doesn't look as dynamic as last year but who knows?  Could be a nice volume play down the stretch.  Not a King Maker IMHO.
  • Ameer Abdullah - added per @gabes1919 : "Riddick has been having a difficult time with injury and none of the other guys have been any good" 

Too Late for preemptive pickup (the cat is outta the bag) - at least in my two 12 team leagues these guys are long gone:

  • D. Booker DEN - Here's the thread on Booker: Devontae Booker - CJ has a knee issue and may be out multiple weeks, if you don't have him now it is probably Too Late
  • Ware KC -  He is a "must roster, must hold" for sure now and if available will be a hot WW pickup this week.
  • Knile Davis GB - whatever his production, highly likely to be rostered by now and does not qualify as a preemptive
  • Jay Ajayi MIA - whatever happens in MIA, highly likely to be rostered by now and does not qualify as a preemptive
  • J. Rodgers TBB - was likely taken off waivers after his breakout 30 carry Oct 16 game

Dropable

  • Howard CHI - Apparently was a 2 hit wonder for a desperate Fox

P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here:  2016 WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings

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On 10/26/2016 at 10:12 AM, JFS171 said:

I'll take a pass at how I'd order these:

KingMakers:
Dion Lewis - I almost think he deserves his own tier if not into the Too Late bucket.  Lewis doesn't need an injury in front of him for a substantial role - he just needs health, and that's apparently coming together.

Shared Workload + Upside:
Devontae Booker - looks great, has value now, and major upside if CJ went down
Bilal Powell - prior to last week was getting significant run and had the upside should Forte go down
Ka'Deem Carey/Jeremy Langford (though the schedule is brutal and we could be facing a 3-way split - gross)

Injury KingMakers:
DeAngelo Williams - Bell handcuff, if he can get healthy
Alfred Morris - Zeke handcuff
Kenneth Farrow - Gordon handcuff
Derrick Henry - Murray handcuff
Mike Gillislee - McCoy handcuff
Thomas Rawls - Michael handcuff -- IF he's healthy... he could move into the above tier, but I'm skeptical he's healthy anytime soon
Charknado? - Charles having trouble with both knees apparently -- this is Ware's backfield, but the usage is sky high for KC backs, and if Chark is the only guy left standing...

Honorable Mention:
Dwayne Washington -- there's upside here, but he's gotta get healthy and could still be sharing with Riddick down the road (but Riddick may have a serious injury himself too)
Paul Perkins -- if they benched Jennings or Jennings got hurt, Perkins could be something.  He's got a chance to move up the tiers
Washington/Richard -- if Murray goes down or gets benched, but they probably share.  I seem to be in the minority preferring Washington slightly
Don Jackson -- Who is Don Jackson?  I think he's got a bit of talent, and I think Knile Davis sucks... so, maybe he gets a chance as the Montgomery complement?
Peyton Barber - per my previous post, if Martin stays out and Quizz goes down...
Wendell Smallwood -- kind of a committee mess, even if Mathews were to be injured
Rob Kelley -- in theory, the Matt Jones replacement, though Thompson complicates
Kenneth Dixon/Taliaferro -- I'm not sure where he stands anymore... I don't think he's healthy, and West looks good, and now there's ZoBot too
Andre Ellington - theoretically David Johnson's handcuff, but I'm skeptical he'd get nearly the same workload and wouldn't have to split
Malcolm Brown -- probably the best replacement for Gurley, but the offense is so bad and they'd have Cunningham do more too
Mike Davis -- if Hyde gets hurt (and he's been fragile) Davis would get a shot to establish the hot hand, but he had that chance last week, scored a TD, then split work 3-ways on an awful team -- yuck

Too Late:
Spencer Ware
Jay Ajayi
Knile Davis (I think he's fool's gold, but we'll see)
Jordan Howard
Quizz Rodgers

 

@JFS171 I like what you did here.  After this week's of games I'll break the Potentials into the 3 categories you used.  Nice!

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Can't open the link to the AP story.  Can anyone help or confirm the possibility of an AP return?

Stating the obvious but this could be big...

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Not to be a party pooper but would probably serve well to temper expectations on ADP. He is historically a stud. He is awesome. He's also an aging running back returning from yet another significant injury and he wasn't dominant this season prior to the injury. 

Don't get me wrong, he's cheap at the moment and he would most likely be the starting RB in Minn should he get back on the field, but even if that's the case, I would expect RB2 numbers at best. Not saying it's impossible for ADP to return as a stud RB1 and change fantasy seasons, but I am saying it's not likely. At all.

Just my :2cents:

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1 hour ago, Captain Fantastic said:

Not to be a party pooper but would probably serve well to temper expectations on ADP. He is historically a stud. He is awesome. He's also an aging running back returning from yet another significant injury and he wasn't dominant this season prior to the injury. 

Don't get me wrong, he's cheap at the moment and he would most likely be the starting RB in Minn should he get back on the field, but even if that's the case, I would expect RB2 numbers at best. Not saying it's impossible for ADP to return as a stud RB1 and change fantasy seasons, but I am saying it's not likely. At all.

Just my :2cents:

I get what you are saying, but the bolded is the key in my mind.  What I think we are looking for in terms of the RB Lotto Ticket (at least ideally in my mind) is a guy who can be plug and play because he is definitely the starter.  I have little doubt about that with AP.

Thanks to kd1 for pointing this out.  He is out there on my wire.  I picked up Rawls the other day, largely because I own Michael, before the last report saying he is still a few weeks away.  

Now debating between Rawls and AP.  I feel like AP is more worth it because he is more likely to get more carries if he actually returns, as opposed to Rawls who seems to have this strange, never-ending leg problem.

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5 hours ago, GECKO said:

Can't open the link to the AP story.  Can anyone help or confirm the possibility of an AP return?

Stating the obvious but this could be big...

From the linked article above.

Quote

Peterson is eligible to come off the Injured Reserve list on Nov. 18, which means the absolute earliest he could dress for the Vikings would be Week 11 (Nov. 20) at home against the Arizona Cardinals. The Vikings will not rush him back, though (nor will Peterson want to rush back himself given his contract status).

“Once those guys go on the IR list, they’re dead cards for eight weeks, and then we just have to re-evaluate where we’re at, with all the guys,” Vikings GM Rick Spielman told TwinCities.com on Oct. 12. “Usually Adrian becomes strong as the season goes, and goes stronger as the games progress. So I look at it as he’s going to do everything he can to get back … That’s at least eight, nine weeks of not taking hits on that body, which is going to make him pretty fresh.”

Minnesota plays at Detroit on Thanksgiving and that game is lining up to be huge when it comes to the NFC playoff picture. The following Thursday, the Vikings host Dallas in another game that will have huge playoff implications.

We’ve heard “December” for weeks now when it comes to a potential Peterson return, so here’s guessing No. 28 will be back on Dec. 1 against the Cowboys on National TV.

So they are speculating about a month from now. Remains to be seen if he will be able to return to play right away or not. He historically has been a fast healer.

I think his play has been in decline going back to last season, but I don't think there is much question about him being the starter once he is healthy enough to play. McKinnon hasn't been healthy enough for the Vikings to have any reason to question it.

Some people think the offense overall is more effective without Peterson, as the offense changes quite a bit to accommodate what Peterson does well.

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19 hours ago, Wooderson said:

Say what now? What does McCoy have to do with Kelley?

I see you liked the post. Which makes me more confused then ever. 

Thanks for all your work on this it's very informative. 

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5 hours ago, Wooderson said:

I see you liked the post. Which makes me more confused then ever. 

Thanks for all your work on this it's very informative. 

I edited the post - I meant to say Jones- thanks fry he correction.

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29 minutes ago, daylight said:

I edited the post - I meant to say Jones- thanks fry he correction.

No problem thought I was missing something. 

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