need2know
Footballguy
The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when murray get back. Horrible situation for fantasy
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2016 RB Lotto Ticket Rankings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter SameSongNDance
- Start date
theothervcruz
Footballguy
Yup. I'm avoiding at all costs and that meant dropping Latavius in 3 leagues - all for Bilal Powell.
Amazingly someone spent $16 FAAB dollars on Latavius on a $100 budget. If it works out for you, great. I don't want the headache.
need2know
Footballguy
daylight
Footballguy
I am quoting @TZMarkie above as a definition of this RB Lottery Ticket discussion.
Here is my Post-Week-5 list, loosely ranked:
- D. Booker DEN - big defense holds game scripts on a team that wants to run, usage is trending up
- D. Williams PIT - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) - Bloom *continues* to advise to hold him at all costs in The Audible
- A. Morris DAL - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
- B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance
- D. Henry TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities
- M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here
- K. Dixon BAL - wasn't used much this past weekend but I *love* players on teams that fire their HC/OC - the new coach often shakes things up increasing fantasy value
- S. Draughn SF - Chip prefers a workhorse
- W. Smallwood PHI - belongs on this list?
- Dion Lewis - belongs on this list? Anyone have any love for DJ Foster?
Thoughts?
Honorable Mention:
- Farrow SDC
- A. Ellington ARZ
- Malcolm Brown STL
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JFS171
Footballguy
JFS171
Footballguy
Appreciate you keeping these top of mind... Agree with the list for the most part, but I'll push you on Draughn. I think Mike Davis is infinitely more talented, and you could argue the organization has more invested in Davis in what's certain to be a lost year for them. We just saw him nearly split snaps with Draughn in the last game after not playing much the first month. Davis looked electric in the preseason and is supposedly in the best shape of his life (for all that's worth). Just not convinced if Hyde went down all his work would go to Draughn. Maybe it's a fool's gold scenario where Draughn and Davis split the work and it becomes a mess, but I think I'd lean Davis if I was trying to stash the heir to most of Carlos' work... admittedly it's a dart throw on either IMO.daylight said:
I'll put in a plug for Foster too... he could've scored twice on Sunday - tackled at the one on one play, and was uncovered on one of Bennett's TDs, but Brady didn't get that far in the progression. The fact that he was even that close to one TD, let alone two, doesn't seem THAT fluky to me. There was buzz about the kid in the preseason (much like we heard buzz on Jalen Richard). Foster then goes out and catches 10 passes in his last preseason game. My guess, and it's only a guess right now, is that he sucks at blitz pickup and they didn't want him in there with the inexperienced QBs... but Brady IDs the blitz and gets rid of the ball so fast that I think Foster's role could grow. We've heard nothing about Lewis - by all means stash if you've got an IR spot. Meanwhile, White just feels like a guy the organization isn't in love with... Foster is coming on, and you can get him for basically free right now.
Finally, Farrow remains intriguing only because of the workload they keep giving Melvin Gordon and how little he's doing with it. Yes he's getting TDs, but I don't think it's that sustainable. McCluster has a bit role... plausible to me that Farrow is best between-the-tackles RB on their roster and Gordon should be in the Woodhead role catching the ball in space... maybe that develops over time.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I know we talked about this before the season began JFS171 and I would agree that Davis was an interesting college prospect. However he has not done anything yet in regular season play to merit your undying optimism for him.
Dope
Footballguy
Just dropped Deandre Washington and picked up Booker because of this thread....great info in here.
Thanks.
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
Booker by far. You can see the talent and he's being integrated already. Plus CJ isn't on the level of McCoy so there is much more of an open door. And CJ is not the most durable.
need2know
Footballguy
True. He also has never been the workhorse over the course of an entire season. Not sure what his max carries are in one season, but it's not much
JFS171
Footballguy
To be fair, undying optimism is a bit overstated. I'm just not sure Shaun Draughn is that good... and I'm not sure he'd be the workhorse if Hyde went down.
I actually don't own Davis on a single team, though he did look good in some of his preseason action.
JFS171
Footballguy
CJ's career high in carries is 179 (that magical second half run of 2014), but he added 34 receptions to that -- so 213 touches.
JFS171
Footballguy
Something to add on Anderson and Booker... and to be clear I'm not saying Booker shouldn't be owned.
Denver has been missing Donald Stephenson and Virgil Green for the past 2-3 games. Stephenson is a massive upgrade on Ty Sambraillo at tackle, and Virgil Green is a beast in run blocking. CJ is probably a tremendous buy low before Thursday night.
Denver has been missing Donald Stephenson and Virgil Green for the past 2-3 games. Stephenson is a massive upgrade on Ty Sambraillo at tackle, and Virgil Green is a beast in run blocking. CJ is probably a tremendous buy low before Thursday night.
In one of my leagues, I have the ultimate RB Lotto Ticket roster due to injuries and L. Murray's awfulness.
* D. Williams
* K. Dixon
* D. Booker
* W. Smallwood
* D. Washington (OAK)
Every week is a juggling act to see who to keep, who to let go, who else to pick up. I'm hoping one of these guys can emerge 2nd half and take over RB2.
As of right now, W. Smallwood is lowest on the totem pole. He may have to go.
* D. Williams
* K. Dixon
* D. Booker
* W. Smallwood
* D. Washington (OAK)
Every week is a juggling act to see who to keep, who to let go, who else to pick up. I'm hoping one of these guys can emerge 2nd half and take over RB2.
As of right now, W. Smallwood is lowest on the totem pole. He may have to go.
JFS171
Footballguy
One guy that apparently needs to be on this list, judging from the vitriol thrown his way in his thread, is Dwayne Washington. Forsett was just brought in, and I would imagine Washington was cut in a lot of leagues. The Lions have no one on the roster that can run the ball between the tackles, and that's not Forsett's strength either. Washington is a freak athlete, he's climbed the depth chart much faster than anyone expected, and he's got Theo Riddick in front of him. Does that limit the ceiling? Sure - he's probably not going to be a David Johnson or Le'Veon Bell type that catches 50 balls a year (yet). But that doesn't mean he can't eventually grab 1st and 2nd down duty, securing 15+ touches a week in a high powered offense.
Sometimes we look at these veteran signings (like Forsett) and we overreact, cutting the guy that eventually gets the gig. Forsett was needed (Detroit had Golden Tate as the backup to Theo last week). Doesn't mean he's necessarily a threat to Dwayne, or that he has anything left in the tank -- he looked pretty awful in Baltimore.
I'm holding steady... and to clarify, undying optimism is a fair description for my feelings RE: Dwayne.
Sometimes we look at these veteran signings (like Forsett) and we overreact, cutting the guy that eventually gets the gig. Forsett was needed (Detroit had Golden Tate as the backup to Theo last week). Doesn't mean he's necessarily a threat to Dwayne, or that he has anything left in the tank -- he looked pretty awful in Baltimore.
I'm holding steady... and to clarify, undying optimism is a fair description for my feelings RE: Dwayne.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
206 carries 2nd year of junior college.
I'm also thinking that one thought coaches might have had going into last week is the short prep for TNF. So the usage Sunday may have been preplanned to leave CJA fresh.
But I like Booker a lot. Almost drafted him & picked him up a few weeks ago.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
I've got no dog in this fight and don't really even know that much about Davis, but I did flag him on another thread coming out of TC because, ironically, last year he put up the single worst stat line I've ever seen from a skill-position player.
When a guy does so little and looks so bad in limited opportunity, and yet the coaching staff has no qualms about not only keeping him on the 53-man but not bringing in additional competition for his spot via the draft/FA, you have to conclude they're seeing something in practice that you and I aren't seeing in game film.
Add to this that Hyde is constantly injured and Draughn is the definition of JAG and, well, crazier things have happened in the NFL.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Has Jon Williams been active on game days in Buff? He is far from an essential hold but I wonder how he would factor in with Gillislee if Shady were to miss time.
daylight
Footballguy
A bump and I updated my list based on recent posts.
Here is my Post-Week-5 list, loosely ranked:
Here is my Post-Week-5 list, loosely ranked:
- D. Booker DEN [Season Changer] - big defense holds game scripts on a team that wants to run, usage is trending up
- D. Williams PIT [Season Changer] - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) - Bloom *continues* to advise to hold him at all costs in The Audible
- A. Morris DAL [Season Changer] - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
- B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance
- D. Henry TEN - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities
- M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here
- K. Dixon BAL - wasn't used much this past weekend but I *love* players on teams that fire their HC/OC - the new coach often shakes things up increasing fantasy value
- S. Draughn SF - Chip prefers a workhorse - Or will it be Mike Davis? Could it be one of those cases where the #3 is the actual Next Man Up when the starter goes down?
- Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - is this a changing of the guard situation? How good is WAS OL?
- Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production?
- W. Smallwood PHI
- Dion Lewis - see DJ Foster below
- DJ Foster - per @JFS171 "he could've scored twice on Sunday (Brady's first game back)" - could he supplant Dion Lewis regardless of Lewis' health?
- Farrow SDC
- A. Ellington ARZ
- Malcolm Brown STL
- DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back. Horrible situation for fantasy"
- Paul Perkins NYG
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
That fair. I was being a bit over dramatic. You typed a lot of words though.JFS171 said:
He did do some things in the preseason this year that was better than the preseason before.
austinball
Footballguy
Good list. THX.
I would argue that Henry and Gillislee are both "season changers" as well if the #1 goes down, just based on talent and their system.
I am pretty high on Gillislee. After watching him more recently he has the burst, quickness, and body size to replace McCoy as an every down back. I don't own him anywhere, but am starting to think about how i could.
In the honorable mentions I would also add Jalen Richard. Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier, but DW looks more well rounded. Regardless i have them at 50/50 in terms of waiver wire value.
And Im not a Matt Jones fan at all (owned him and watched all last year). Just don't think he has the RB instincts you need to excel consistently. Therefore, I'd like to figure out if Kelley is the best option behind him.
Last name to ADD to honorable mention is Paul Perkins NYG. He's explosive. And i really like his entire bill of goods. He has some bodies in front of him, but he's already shown some real flash. I'd definitely consider him a WW lotto ticket at this point.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
This is interesting.
Gillislee is a player I have pretty much overlooked as not a very good prospect and I was thinking that Johnathan Williams was a better handcuff prospect to McCoy than he was. What is your opinion about that?
Based on playing time thus far, it does seem that Gillislee is ahead of Williams on the depth chart.
There are a lot of people such as Greg Cosell and others who thought Williams was a better RB than Alex Collins and perhaps one of the best rookie RB prospects from the 2016 draft class.
stuckinthemuck
Footballguy
Dion Lewis is a must-add if you are a contender with a deep bench.
daylight
Footballguy
FYI, I started a similar thread for Lotto Ticket WR's: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/749607-wr-lotto-ticket-rankings/#comment-19498608
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
Dot
Interesting thoughts, thanks.
Hope you're right on Gillislee, I added him in a league last week where I had a "lotto ticket" spot open up when Sims hit IR.
I'm skeptical that a reliable, startable RB is going to emerge in OAK, WAS, or NYG all season long. There isn't one on any of those three teams now, and none of those situations figure to clear up anytime soon.
Having said that, by definition a lotto ticket is a longshot to hit.
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
Why no Hightower? I can maybe see thinking Ingram is less likely to go down than say McCoy or CJA, but still, he should at least be on the honorable mention list. Especially with that offense he would inherit . . . AND defense.
You've got Alfred Morris as one of the top lotto tickets. EZ looks beastly to me and I would consider him one of the least likely to get injured. Personally I prefer taking shots at older RB's or those with injury history. Ingram's had one season (out of 5) where he played a full slate. Hightower would be an automatic RB2.
You've got Alfred Morris as one of the top lotto tickets. EZ looks beastly to me and I would consider him one of the least likely to get injured. Personally I prefer taking shots at older RB's or those with injury history. Ingram's had one season (out of 5) where he played a full slate. Hightower would be an automatic RB2.
daylight
Footballguy
daylight
Footballguy
A bump and I updated my list based on recent posts. Added some to the Honorables and Ware to the Potential Season Changers list.
Potential Season Changers - Here is my Post-Week-5 list, loosely ranked:
P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here: WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings
Potential Season Changers - Here is my Post-Week-5 list, loosely ranked:
- D. Booker DEN [Season Changer] - big defense holds game scripts on a team that wants to run, usage is trending up
- D. Williams PIT [Season Changer] - did well last year when Bell was out (twice) - Bloom *continues* to advise to hold him at all costs in The Audible
- A. Morris DAL [Season Changer] - still looks good on a team that wants to and can run the ball
- B. Powell NYJ - Bloom has recently stated in a pod cast that Powell could be a #1 given the chance
- D. Henry TEN [Season Changer] - another team that wants to run the ball - has looked really good in limited opportunities
- M. Gillislee BUF - another team that wants to run the ball all day - volume play here
- K. Dixon BAL - wasn't used much this past weekend but I *love* players on teams that fire their HC/OC - the new coach often shakes things up increasing fantasy value
- S. Draughn SF - Chip prefers a workhorse - Or will it be Mike Davis? Could it be one of those cases where the #3 is the actual Next Man Up when the starter goes down?
- Ware KC - Belongs in this list? Could produce Top 5 if Charles is out - yes?
- Rob Kelley WAS - per @zamboni "(HC) said (Oct 9th) that while Jones is still the guy, Kelley deserves more carries" - is this a changing of the guard situation? How good is WAS OL?
- Dwayne Washington DET - on a team with a mediocre defense and a tendency to pass anyway, how much production?
- W. Smallwood PHI
- Dion Lewis - see DJ Foster below
- DJ Foster - per @JFS171 "he could've scored twice on Sunday (Brady's first game back)" - could he supplant Dion Lewis regardless of Lewis' health?
- Farrow SDC
- A. Ellington ARZ
- Malcolm Brown STL
- DeAndre Washington OAK - per @need2know "The 3 way split becomes a 4 way when Murray gets back. Horrible situation for fantasy"
- Jalen Richard OAK - thanks to @davearm for this one and per @austinball "Im seeing just as may "experts' whispering that he's the more talented explosive back as DW. Personally I think JR looks speedier"
- Paul Perkins NYG - thanks @austinball Can he produce like a Top 5 RB if he gets the chance?
- Hightower - thanks to @Rodrigo Duterte who states "would be an automatic RB2" - I've added him to the Honorables as I don't see him as a Season Changer / Lotto Ticket
- Howard CHI
P.S. I started a similar thread for WH/TE here: WR (and TE) Lotto Ticket Rankings
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dipandglide
Footballguy
If I remember right FBG Matt Waldman said he'd have ranked Mike Davis the same as Hyde if they both came out of college the same year. Davis is definitely belonging on this list and could be a sneaky workhorse down the stretch if Hyde were to get hurt.
daylight
Footballguy
I have not seen any NE games yet this year. When Blount comes off the field in "Blount like" down and distance is it Foster coming in @need2know?
There's a discussion going on in the Rawls thread, but I think Rawls gets his starting job back if/when he shows he's healthy. IMO Michael is just a placeholder.
FWIW, not many folks agree.
NYRAGE
Footballguy
As much as I appreciated Hightower last year, the Saints had no one else last season. This year they seem to be using TC in a pass catching role and even Lasco got some carries last week. I'm sure Hightower would get quite a few carries, but not as much as down the stretch last year.
JFS171
Footballguy
Maybe you missed Foster's 10 reception game in the preseason, or the fact that he's a converted WR (or at least played WR some in college in addition to RB). Foster is a great receiving back... he's better between the tackles than White, no question, which may make him the heir to Blout's role if Blount go hurt, but Foster can catch it very well. I think if either guy gets banged up, Foster's got an immediate role.need2know said:
And I still have no idea what to expect from Lewis or when to expect it, personally...
Here's where I am, FWIW:
Drafted Blount and have been using him as my RB2
Just snagged Lewis off of the WW as a speculative add
Keeping Foster on my radar for now
White, no interest. By now I've seen enough from him to know I'd never start him
JFS171
Footballguy
Rotoworld on Lewis:
Here's the full article: http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2016/10/dion_lewis_injury_update_new_e.html
Here's the full article: http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2016/10/dion_lewis_injury_update_new_e.html
JFS171
Footballguy
My bad - 9 reception game... still.
Foster's kinda like a souped up James White. He's better between the tackles, and he's every bit the receiver. While they're proceeding cautiously with Lewis, Foster could start getting on the field more. They're basically the same size, but Foster's much more agile. His Agility Score (which I've posted about Agility Scores elsewhere) is 10.82 to White's 11.25... that's a big difference. Foster needs to keep playing well in the opportunities he's given, and not make mistakes. I've never gotten the impression that NE is in love with James White or what he brings to the table the way they were in love with Dion Lewis last year. I think there's a chance Foster starts to siphon that White role, and if either White or Blount go down, he very likely steps into more work.
daylight
Footballguy
And then is he a Season Changer? Or too many variables in Bill B's week to week game plan for that?
JFS171
Footballguy
At this point I wouldn't consider him one... not yet. Could he be? There's a scenario... White gets hurt, Blount gets hurt, Lewis has trouble coming back... yeah then maybe. But, too early to tell, and too many variables. I'd just say he's very intriguing right now, especially in dynasty.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Here's my thing with the guy though. If he has all this potential and has showcased it in the preseason....how has he not really sniffed any significant playing time yet? Talent almost always rises......I find it hard to believe that if this guy is going to be meaningful......the clock hasn't even remotely started on it yet.
If you recall who the Patriots were playing at QB the first four weeks, then you have your answer (maybe).
JFS171
Footballguy
Rookie RBs rarely see the field early in the season unless they're Zeke-types. Pass blocking was probably an issue, and may still be. Plus Brady was on the sidelines... so you've got an inexperienced QB and you're going to throw out an inexperienced RB as well?
I just find it interesting that the week Brady returns is the week Foster starts seeing PT and getting those snaps in red zone situations. That tells me they see something in the kid.
