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QB's ADP ranked 6 thru 16 (1 Viewer)

LJax

Footballguy
Of these QB's, basically ADP ranked 6 thru 16.  Who would you most likely want as your Top and #2 QB? 

Roethlisberger, Palmer, Manning, Bortles, Rivers, Carr, Strafford, Cousins, Winston, Taylor.

They very well could end up being close in the end, but I still want to have the highest scorer.

I targeted Roethlisberger last year, thinking he would end up being top 3.  When he did play, I felt to many short yardage TD's went to the RB's which hurt his #'s. Along with a higher expectation of him getting hurt, Green being a whuss and a lack of confidence in Weaton or Coats stepping up? I think I'll pass this year.

Palmer - I'm troubled by his age and also higher injury expectation.  His WR's seem to get banged up a lot too.

Manning - was who I thought I'd go after.  After watching his last pre-season game, I got turned off.  I've had him before and he can play really be bad sometimes.  But, he doesn't seem to get hurt, and is in a potent passing offense. 

Bortles - I'm liking him, but a stronger defense may mean more conservative offense.

Rivers -  maybe.  Allen has got hurt several times and I'm a little suspicious how Benjamin is going to fit in, but will probably fit in well.

Carr - maybe he's the one to come out on top?  The defense might not be as good I first thought, maybe he will be in a lot more shoot outs?

Strafford - Questions about what the offense will look like without CJ.  Higher injury expectation, but he could end up on top?

Cousins - I think, he is my top choice.  It looks like he's going to throw as much as any of them and may even run more TD's in than the guys above.  I was really impressed with his last pre-season game.  He had a ton of drops, but finished the first half with 3 quick passing TD's.

Winston - I'm really intrigued with him too, especially with extra rushing yards and TD's. Still so young.

Taylor - I think I'm targeting him for my back-up (#2), again I like that he will add rushing to his total numbers.

My hunch is, it'll be the QB's at the end of this QB run that scores the most points.  Curious who you guys like most.



 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 







 







 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 







 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

 
Roethlisberger, Palmer, Manning, Bortles, Rivers, Carr, Strafford, Cousins, Winston, Taylor.



 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 







 







 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 







 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 
I like Palmer a little better than the pack, but the best answer here is "whichever one (or two) remains after all the others have been drafted."

(Crazy forum software...no idea why it won't let me delete all that blank space in the quote box.)

 
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I'll take Stafford.  The Lions are going to throw over 600 times this year.  He has enough talent in WR and his backs to do well and the best part is he is cheap.

If Stafford doesn't fall to the 11th or later I would take Fitzpatrick and pair with RG3 or Dak late.

 
I waited on QB and went with Eli.

He does have a clunker every now and then, but 4400+ and 30+ the last two years is 22+ ppg on average, and I can live with that at QB. His durability is also a plus. 

I would've also been fine with Stafford, Jameis and Carr.

I'm not as high on Bortles. Crummy real-life QB with almost no chance to repeat last year's fantasy totals. 

I love Ben, but his splits with and without Martavis are a bit alarming. 

 
I'll take Stafford.  The Lions are going to throw over 600 times this year.  He has enough talent in WR and his backs to do well and the best part is he is cheap.

If Stafford doesn't fall to the 11th or later I would take Fitzpatrick and pair with RG3 or Dak late.
I dont follow the Lions all that much but why do you think they will throw so much?

 
I dont follow the Lions all that much but why do you think they will throw so much?
They averaged 37 pass attempts per game after the Bye week last year when Jim Bob took over.  That's 592 over 16 weeks.  They have a couple good receiving backs and they like to run out of 3 wide sets.  It may not be much more than 600 times but the offense will run through Stafford.

 
They averaged 37 pass attempts per game after the Bye week last year when Jim Bob took over.  That's 592 over 16 weeks.  They have a couple good receiving backs and they like to run out of 3 wide sets.  It may not be much more than 600 times but the offense will run through Stafford.
Also, they can't run the ball.

 
They averaged 37 pass attempts per game after the Bye week last year when Jim Bob took over.  That's 592 over 16 weeks.  They have a couple good receiving backs and they like to run out of 3 wide sets.  It may not be much more than 600 times but the offense will run through Stafford.
Damn I love this site

thanks

 
Stafford to me is a high floor guy due to the amount if attempts.  I mean they just have no RB's.  Even if Abdullah emerges, Riddick is a receiving back and Zach Zenner...?  I think 600 attempts is easy...650 may be in play, especially if they do some glorified handoffs.  And Stafford was epic once they switch OC's.  Problem with Stafford is that he can revert to some pretty careless form...you mention Eli.  Eli seems to be able to have a bad game, put it in the rear view, and be great the next week.  He has a certain confidence I don't think Stafford does.

 
i like Stafford, Rivers, Cousins, Winston and Taylor

Smith and RG3 as very late flyers, for completely opposite reasons.  One is a safety floor, the other huge upside.  or, both of them fools gold, you decide.

 
Echoing some of the above, Stafford & Winston at 16 &17 adp's would make couple of nice cheap picks in a best ball type league.

 
They averaged 37 pass attempts per game after the Bye week last year when Jim Bob took over.  That's 592 over 16 weeks.  They have a couple good receiving backs and they like to run out of 3 wide sets.  It may not be much more than 600 times but the offense will run through Stafford.
Here are Staffs pass attempts the last 5 years: 592, 602, 634, 727, 663. So Staff throwing for 600+ times is almost a lock. In my 6 OT per TD league Staff has finished as QB 8, 15, 4, 10, 5. He has thr easiest QB schedule in the league. There's a lot to like about his ADP this year.

 
Why does Stafford have a higher injury expectation? He hasn't missed a game in 5 years and is as tough as they come.

 
Here are Staffs pass attempts the last 5 years: 592, 602, 634, 727, 663. So Staff throwing for 600+ times is almost a lock. In my 6 OT per TD league Staff has finished as QB 8, 15, 4, 10, 5. He has thr easiest QB schedule in the league. There's a lot to like about his ADP this year.
Good stuff.  I had over looked Stafford.  I have this elephant memory of Stafford first couple of years and had pegged him as avoid ever since.  This is why I thought I'd ask you guys, Stafford was sitting at the bottom of my list and you guys now have me move him to the top.  Probably move Eli back up there too.  I still have a gut feeling that Cousins has the best year, sometimes the gut feel has been right on. 

 
I waited on QB and went with Eli.

He does have a clunker every now and then, but 4400+ and 30+ the last two years is 22+ ppg on average, and I can live with that at QB. His durability is also a plus. 

I would've also been fine with Stafford, Jameis and Carr.

I'm not as high on Bortles. Crummy real-life QB with almost no chance to repeat last year's fantasy totals. 

I love Ben, but his splits with and without Martavis are a bit alarming. 
More often than every now and then, IMO. But, yeah, Eli generally provides good value. His ADP is higher this year but the last few years I was able to get him after everyone else in my league had a starter at QB. He's durable and EOY stats usually are good...just gotta be able to stomach some real ugly games along the way. Week 1 last year was gross (7pts) at Dallas. Week 6 he had 12pts then Week 7 he had 6 stinkin points (guess Dallas had his number). After 12 and 6 the preceding weeks, though, he put up 6 TDs (41pts!) in Week 8.

i like Stafford, Rivers, Cousins, Winston and Taylor

Smith and RG3 as very late flyers, for completely opposite reasons.  One is a safety floor, the other huge upside.  or, both of them fools gold, you decide.
I think you have called Smith very accurately. Steady/conservative player with safe but unspectacular floor. Nothing fools gold about him I don't think. RGIII definitely could be, though.

 
Good stuff.  I had over looked Stafford.  I have this elephant memory of Stafford first couple of years and had pegged him as avoid ever since.  This is why I thought I'd ask you guys, Stafford was sitting at the bottom of my list and you guys now have me move him to the top.  Probably move Eli back up there too.  I still have a gut feeling that Cousins has the best year, sometimes the gut feel has been right on. 
To me Rivers, Eli, Cousins, Staff and Tyrod represent the best intersection of value, ceiling and floor. 

 
Cousins has an easy schedule and plenty of weapons in a pass happy offense and questionable D
To me Rivers, Eli, Cousins, Staff and Tyrod represent the best intersection of value, ceiling and floor. 
What the hell am I missing?  Dodds, Henry, Tremblay all rank Cousins #13. Wood rank Cousins #14

In 2015, Cousins was:

#10 in pass attempts - 589

#4 in pass completions - 408 (49 behind #1 Brady)

#1 in pass completions % - 69.30%

#9 in total passing yards - 4495 (887 yds behind #1 Brady)

#12 in TD passes - 30 (this could be the experts reasoning for their rankings)  I believe he will exceed this number.

#8 in yards pass per - 7.6 (.9 behind #1 Palmer)

#4 passer rating - 100.8

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/qb-rating-nfl

Chase Stuart top QB by committee combination would be to draft Kirk Cousins and Jameis Winston.

Chase also ranks Cousins with the 6th easiest SOS http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_quarterback_by_committee_2016 (Eli #3)

Matt Bitonti ranks Washington Offensive line #5 http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2016OLPreseason3

Cousins has only one full season under his belt, I can't help to think he'll improve on last years numbers and finish in the top 5.

 
What the hell am I missing?  Dodds, Henry, Tremblay all rank Cousins #13. Wood rank Cousins #14

In 2015, Cousins was:

#10 in pass attempts - 589

#4 in pass completions - 408 (49 behind #1 Brady)

#1 in pass completions % - 69.30%

#9 in total passing yards - 4495 (887 yds behind #1 Brady)

#12 in TD passes - 30 (this could be the experts reasoning for their rankings)  I believe he will exceed this number.

#8 in yards pass per - 7.6 (.9 behind #1 Palmer)

#4 passer rating - 100.8

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/qb-rating-nfl

Chase Stuart top QB by committee combination would be to draft Kirk Cousins and Jameis Winston.

Chase also ranks Cousins with the 6th easiest SOS http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_quarterback_by_committee_2016 (Eli #3)

Matt Bitonti ranks Washington Offensive line #5 http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2016OLPreseason3

Cousins has only one full season under his belt, I can't help to think he'll improve on last years numbers and finish in the top 5.
I agree, it's a bit a confounding. 

 
What the hell am I missing?  Dodds, Henry, Tremblay all rank Cousins #13. Wood rank Cousins #14

In 2015, Cousins was:

#10 in pass attempts - 589

#4 in pass completions - 408 (49 behind #1 Brady)

#1 in pass completions % - 69.30%

#9 in total passing yards - 4495 (887 yds behind #1 Brady)

#12 in TD passes - 30 (this could be the experts reasoning for their rankings)  I believe he will exceed this number.

#8 in yards pass per - 7.6 (.9 behind #1 Palmer)

#4 passer rating - 100.8

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/qb-rating-nfl

Chase Stuart top QB by committee combination would be to draft Kirk Cousins and Jameis Winston.

Chase also ranks Cousins with the 6th easiest SOS http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_quarterback_by_committee_2016 (Eli #3)

Matt Bitonti ranks Washington Offensive line #5 http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2016OLPreseason3

Cousins has only one full season under his belt, I can't help to think he'll improve on last years numbers and finish in the top 5.
Well, two things might be:

1) Much tougher schedule for the Redskins this year (not agreeing with Chase on this one).

2) Projected improvement on unusually low #s last season for Qbs like Rodgers, Luck and Rivers could push Cousins down a couple places even if he produces at last season's clip.

13th for a player 10th in attempts and 12 in TDs doesn't seem wildly out of line.  Nor does it seem unreasonable to project him somewhat higher.

 
What the hell am I missing?  Dodds, Henry, Tremblay all rank Cousins #13. Wood rank Cousins #14

In 2015, Cousins was:

#10 in pass attempts - 589

#4 in pass completions - 408 (49 behind #1 Brady)

#1 in pass completions % - 69.30%

#9 in total passing yards - 4495 (887 yds behind #1 Brady)

#12 in TD passes - 30 (this could be the experts reasoning for their rankings)  I believe he will exceed this number.

#8 in yards pass per - 7.6 (.9 behind #1 Palmer)

#4 passer rating - 100.8

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/player-stat/qb-rating-nfl

Chase Stuart top QB by committee combination would be to draft Kirk Cousins and Jameis Winston.

Chase also ranks Cousins with the 6th easiest SOS http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=stuart_quarterback_by_committee_2016 (Eli #3)

Matt Bitonti ranks Washington Offensive line #5 http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2016OLPreseason3

Cousins has only one full season under his belt, I can't help to think he'll improve on last years numbers and finish in the top 5.
You know sometimes you have to go with your gut. I trust my own rankings more than anyone else's. Some concern with the second half of the season but no worries I nabbed Brady with the 66th pick overall. If Cousins fails Stafford isn't getting much love. Either of the two can be paired with Brady for a song.

 
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According to this ADP Carr, Winston, Cousins and Stafford can be drafted after the top 100 picks.I like Cousins and Stafford a bit more than Carr or Winston, mostly because they are more experienced, but those QB I wouldn't mind having either. You can get Cousins or Stafford in the 10th round, the younger guys are going in the 9th round.

I think Stafford is worth reaching slightly for because of the volume. 

Winston and Cousins had some really easy schedules last season, which gives me pause because even if they improve, the match ups may not b as favorable. The AFC South, NFC South and the NFC East all played each other last year. You will not find worse defenses collectively than these last season imo.The offensive stats from those teams are inflated a bit because of shoot outs and poor overall defensive play that should come down a bit. This would apply to Eli Bortles and Brees as well.

The two south divisions still play each other this year though, and the NFC North teams get to play them, which should help Stafford. I do think the Jaguars are improved, and possibly the Bucs as well, so maybe it won't be as easy going against these teams defenses as last season.

 
I like Carr's early schedule, facing only one team in the first eight games that was in the top 20 in pass defense last year, and starting with New Orleans.

 
According to this ADP Carr, Winston, Cousins and Stafford can be drafted after the top 100 picks.I like Cousins and Stafford a bit more than Carr or Winston, mostly because they are more experienced, but those QB I wouldn't mind having either. You can get Cousins or Stafford in the 10th round, the younger guys are going in the 9th round.

I think Stafford is worth reaching slightly for because of the volume. 

Winston and Cousins had some really easy schedules last season, which gives me pause because even if they improve, the match ups may not b as favorable. The AFC South, NFC South and the NFC East all played each other last year. You will not find worse defenses collectively than these last season imo.The offensive stats from those teams are inflated a bit because of shoot outs and poor overall defensive play that should come down a bit. This would apply to Eli Bortles and Brees as well.

The two south divisions still play each other this year though, and the NFC North teams get to play them, which should help Stafford. I do think the Jaguars are improved, and possibly the Bucs as well, so maybe it won't be as easy going against these teams defenses as last season.
Good stuff to consider.  My experience in our 35 year old keeper draft is when the first QB of this group is picked the rest will be picked in less than two rounds. Roethlisberger may go earlier and not start the run, I took him in the 6th last year because I thought top 3, and didn't pick a good enough backup, big mistake.  Even teams that have keepers in Rogers, Newton, Wilson, Brees and Brady, will be after this group for backups.  After 7 rounds, I'll be satisfied with my RB's and WR's starters and depth, so I'm wanting to start the run in the middle of the 8th to insure I get the two best in this group.  I should be satisfied to take what's left, its just not my nature, I want to know whom I targeting.  I want Cousins, so I'm planning on him in the 9th, just wish I had a conviction who to start the run with.  Plenty of argument for Eli, Rivers, Palmer and even the young guys of Winston, Bortles and Carr to finish top 5.  Maybe Roethlisberger falls to the 8th and I fall for his hype again?

 
My #1 would be Rivers. I'm very high on him. Put up good #s despite so many injuries last year. Keenan Allen was on pace for a whopping year.

My #2 would be Stafford most likely. I'm concerned about him losing Megatron, but the offense clicked so much better with OC Jim Bob Cooter taking over. Marvin Jones looks like a legitimate deep threat while Tate is a solid possession receiver. Riddick can catch a lot of balls out of the backfield. I have heard reports about them wanting to run the ball, but I don't have much optimism they'll be able to do that effectively.

 
I took Brady in my draft a couple of days ago.  Of your list, Ben, Eli and Palmer were already gone.
Good pick.  I'm sure you also grabbed someone solid for the first 4 weeks.  I think that's better that Ben, Eli and Palmer.  Brady is consistent, Ben and Eli will probably have 4 dud weeks and Palmer and his WR's scare me with injuries. 

 
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Very strange list of qb's there in regards to how different their ADP's are.  Some of those guys are going much earlier than the others--so it's hard to answer the question.  In regards to value relative to where they are getting drafted--I like the combination of drafting Brady and Stafford.   I think that those two make the perfect combo of value vs ADP--and I frankly like them as a rostered duo (QB1 and QB2)

 
His schedule is really nice towads the end but I think hes consistent all year
I want to reach and grab Winston, especially if he jumps to elite (Top 5) after this year.  He has extra value in our scoring system because of rushing potential and keeper value.  Does he get into the Cam, Rodgers, Wilson Tier?  The dilemma I'm battling with. Ben, Eli, Palmer, Stafford and Rivers are probably better picks this year, but will Winston get and stay in that top Tier?

 
I want to reach and grab Winston, especially if he jumps to elite (Top 5) after this year.  He has extra value in our scoring system because of rushing potential and keeper value.  Does he get into the Cam, Rodgers, Wilson Tier?  The dilemma I'm battling with. Ben, Eli, Palmer, Stafford and Rivers are probably better picks this year, but will Winston get and stay in that top Tier?
Worth the risk at his price imo.  I like what I see.  

 
Currently just outside the upper ADP boundary the OP set, but thoughts on where (if anywhere) the Red Rocket belongs in the discussion? 

 
Currently just outside the upper ADP boundary the OP set, but thoughts on where (if anywhere) the Red Rocket belongs in the discussion? 
Probably should be in the discussion.  Cincinnati looked really good rushing the ball against Jacksonville and questions about other receivers (TE) besides Green worry me. Solid backup and spot player.  Not sure you win league depending on him the majority of the time.

 
My order of preference based on where I can get them:


Stafford, Rivers, Cousins, Winston, Palmer,  and then some order between these:  (I struggle with these last 5) Roethlisberger, Taylor, Bortles, Carr, Manning



 


 

 
DOn't sleep on Flacco.  I know he's not listed but he is defin tely in the running to end up around the top 12 or so by end of season.  He has more weapons and is in year 2 with Trestman as his coordinator.  If the offense can stay healthy this could be a big year for Flacco.

 
Brady is an easy fade for me this season. You'll be without him for 5 regular season weeks.  His schedule is terrible including @den and jets weeks 15 and 16.  You have to take him higher than most of the guys on this list and spend an additional pick on a qb to cover for him for the first month of the season. Pass.

 
DOn't sleep on Flacco.  I know he's not listed but he is defin tely in the running to end up around the top 12 or so by end of season.  He has more weapons and is in year 2 with Trestman as his coordinator.  If the offense can stay healthy this could be a big year for Flacco.
I am curious about this one. Flacco's total VBD over his 8 year career has been 0. Prior to last year, he had never missed a game, so it's not like we could say he was injured. The best he ever ranked was QB12. I agree he should do better than last season, but I just don't see how he carries much value in start 1 QB leagues. He might be an ok backup, but I would not think Flacco is going to win anyone many fantasy games.

As for QB's in Trestman run offenses, as an OC or HC, his primary QBs have ranked as follows based on ppg: 18, 13, 2, 6, 11, 32, 22, 6, 3, 32, 32, 21, 10, 20. That's about as all over the map as you can get.

The other issue for Trestman offenses is here's how many games the team's QB1 was actually able to start each year: 9, 16, 11, 12, 16, 11, 14, 16, 16, 7, 7, 11, 15, 10. Maybe that's coincidence, maybe it's the system, but in 14 seasons, the starter only played 16 games 4 times with an average of 12 starts per season.

 
Was in a draft last night, 14 teamer. Guys were pretty sharp on waiting for QBs. I ended up with Bortles which is a first. He went after Cousins, Tyrod, Stafford, and Carr. I was shocked by that. 

 
Flacco's tools this year are about as good as it gets, at least on paper.  With Aiken, Wallace, Perriman and a healthy Smith to go along with Pitta, Williams, and Boyle, Flacco has a potentially(yes, I am aware it's speculation at this point) lethal receiveing corps.  The running game should be solid with Forsett, Dixon,West and Allen the running game should be at least solid if not more so.  The biggest question mark, and it is big, is how well does the offensive line hold up with Osemele gone.  I am optmisitc.

 
Part of the point here is that these guys are mostly interchangeable.  12 team league you can wait until every team has one and a few guys have taken their backup, then grab 2 of these guys in your next 2 or 3 picks and you should be set for 4,000 yards and 30TDs from the position.

Can't put my finger on it but I am leery of Palmer this year.  No one has mentioned Tannehill but that team is going to push the pace, their D sucks and I don't see them running the ball with what they have at RB.

 
Pair Flacco with Josh McCown and you might have a sneaky way to pick up rb's and wr's early in the draft and let qb slide.  High risk with potential high reward.  

Could also land you in last place.  What do I know.

 
I like Bortles, Carr, Palmer, Cousins, Mariota. Given that the first 3 have moved up many boards I'd go Cousins and take Mariota as a late flyer if possible. 

 
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Brady is an easy fade for me this season. You'll be without him for 5 regular season weeks.  His schedule is terrible including @den and jets weeks 15 and 16.  You have to take him higher than most of the guys on this list and spend an additional pick on a qb to cover for him for the first month of the season. Pass.
I have posted on the 5 games missed stuff in multiple other threads.To me, that's just silly. EVERY quarterback has to miss his bye week. He will miss 4 weeks more than other QBs.

As far as Brady playing in Denver, in 9 career games he has averaged 288 passing yards, 2 total TD, 1 INT per game. Sure, the Broncos defense is likely better than in prior years (but probably not as good as last year).

In 15 games at home against the Jets over his career, Brady has averaged 243 passing yards, 1.5 total TD, 0.3 INT per game. I suppose if people see better options for the playoffs, then go with those guys instead.

 
Flacco's tools this year are about as good as it gets, at least on paper.  With Aiken, Wallace, Perriman and a healthy Smith to go along with Pitta, Williams, and Boyle, Flacco has a potentially(yes, I am aware it's speculation at this point) lethal receiveing corps.  The running game should be solid with Forsett, Dixon,West and Allen the running game should be at least solid if not more so.  The biggest question mark, and it is big, is how well does the offensive line hold up with Osemele gone.  I am optmisitc.
I guess we differ on what lethal translates to. Perriman has never played a down and is coming off injury, Smith is one of the oldest players in the league and coming off injury, Wallace looked washed up last year, and Aiken got a zillion targets because there was almost literally no one left to throw to. Keeping with the injury theme, Watson is out for the season, Pitta hasn't played since 2014 and the last time he was relevant was 2012, and Williams and Boyle put up pedestrian numbers at best last year.

IMO, they are a long ways from being lethal. Better than last year, sure, but you might been going a bit overboardon the lethal part.

 

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