Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Why isn't this more of a priority? Guy consistently puts up 1-2 ppg than must other starting kickers.
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Getting Gostkowski (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Dan Lambskin
- Start date
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Where does he typically get drafted? 8th? What's the cumulative differential for your next 7-10 picks over the picks you would have taken one round earlier?
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Sure he may average 1-2 more ppg than the average kicker (maybe), but at his cost (i.e. higher than the last round or > a dollar in auction) I'd rather take a sleeper I like or a handcuff. Plus, what happens during the bye. Do you roster an extra K or cut Gostowski? I'd rather stream the least valuable position in fantasy.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
But he's an every week starter where a lot of the guys your grabbing are rb5 or wr5 that may never Crack your lineup
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Kicker is like QB, TE, and DST. I am not touching any of them till round 11 or later unless I have to start more than 1. There are too many viable back ups for free that will be equal to or greater than the average starters at each position.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
I get it. I like having a lineup that can have a better than averag chance to beat my opponents in every positional slot. I'll go D earlier than most "Sharks" advocate. K though.....every year, there seems to be a FA guy who comes out of no where and challenges for at least the top 5 points for the season for the position. I akin K's to relievers in fantasy baseball......the great ones are consistently great.....but there's always a newcomer who puts up great numbers for at least a year.
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packer_junkie
Footballguy
In my opinion (different than the 'experts')... Gotskowski & a top D (seahawks, panthers) is totally worth it. Why?-- cause i feel confident my 'sleeper rb 5 and wr 5 in round 16 is just as likely, if not more likely, to perform than the dudes in my leagues 11th and 12th rounders.
Now, I'm not taking them in the 8th. But in my main league last week, granted- there are close to 24 guys being kept- I took Gots in the 10th and Panthers D in the 11th. I feel good knowing i can roll them out damn near every week and be better than my opponent. Still filled the back of my roster with guys like Ebron, Kevin White, Spencer Ware, McKinnon, etc. I don't think (Insert 10th round rb here (guys like james white, etc)... is any more likely to out produce spencer ware and jerrick mcKinnon this year
Ill gladly take #1 K 4 years straight and a top 3 defense
Now, I'm not taking them in the 8th. But in my main league last week, granted- there are close to 24 guys being kept- I took Gots in the 10th and Panthers D in the 11th. I feel good knowing i can roll them out damn near every week and be better than my opponent. Still filled the back of my roster with guys like Ebron, Kevin White, Spencer Ware, McKinnon, etc. I don't think (Insert 10th round rb here (guys like james white, etc)... is any more likely to out produce spencer ware and jerrick mcKinnon this year
Ill gladly take #1 K 4 years straight and a top 3 defense
Dismattle
Footballguy
Lets not forget bye weeks That high dollar kicker is gonna need a replacement So now you need to consider dropping that actual end of bn player or a goose egg
Now if scoring reflects some due diligence ex's points taken for missed extra points or added alot for 50+ yds When in rome..
Now if scoring reflects some due diligence ex's points taken for missed extra points or added alot for 50+ yds When in rome..
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Not sure what you mean by "more of a priority"
A dozen QBs score more points than Antonio Brown - does that mean you should draft a qb in the first round? No because lots of other quarterbacks will get you a good number of points.
Was Gostkowski better than other kickers in the last few years? Yes. Will he lead kickers in scoring again this year? Yes - actually he may be better because he may get more FG chances in the first four weeks.
BUT is he a potential RB or WR starter better than Tucker or Gano or several other kickers? No.
Take him when you want but if it is too early realize you shorted yourself a potential starter which you should know you are going to need.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Just surprised there is still such an old school mentality about this. Guy gives you an advanced over your opponent each week but instead grab Jabar Gaffney and let him rot on your bench all year in case he gets his shot in week 12 after blunt and white and Bolden all get hurt
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Boswell only out up 5 in week 16 though when most champion ships are whereas Gostkowski put up 8 (almost doubled his output)
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
I guess this also depends on your league's scoring. Our league devalues Ks (no distance bonus, just 3 for a FG 1 for an PAT, that's it).
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Obviously we don't know who will be the late round gems this year, but here's a list of players that were drafted after Gostkowski last year in one league I cared to check...
Zach Ertz
Tyler Eifert
Delanie Walker
Antonio Gates
Jordan Reed
Michael Crabtree
Theo Riddick
Kyle Rudolph
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Markus Wheaton
Jerick McKinnon
Doug Baldwin
Lots of contributors, and a few studs.
That "guaranteed" 1.5 points per week isn't worth missing out on the potential value at higher scoring positions.
Zach Ertz
Tyler Eifert
Delanie Walker
Antonio Gates
Jordan Reed
Michael Crabtree
Theo Riddick
Kyle Rudolph
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Markus Wheaton
Jerick McKinnon
Doug Baldwin
Lots of contributors, and a few studs.
That "guaranteed" 1.5 points per week isn't worth missing out on the potential value at higher scoring positions.
I would never reach for SG, but I will say there is at least a stronger argument for him over any defense, because you at least know what you're getting. He's a very good kicker on an offense that always scores points. Defenses are so volatile, and FFPs are so disconnected from RL performance, it is literally a crapshoot as to which ones will deliver any kind of value.
Pipes
Footballguy
How about the 80 or so busts that were drafted after round 8? Seems like you just cherry picked the good guys.
Dezbelief
Footballguy
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Dezbelief
Footballguy
Drafting Gostkowski only precludes one from drafting the players taken between Gostkowski and the manager's next pick.
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
In a 16 round draft I will take him in the 14th round if he's available. Once I have my starting positions filled and some good backups I will consider taking him but I am not taking him of some high upside position players or handcuffs. It's really not that smart.
Go back through all of your leagues and look if the championship team had Gostkowski on it. Guaranteed he wasn't the reason but there certainly some other kickers that won it for guys in the playoffs.
Go back through all of your leagues and look if the championship team had Gostkowski on it. Guaranteed he wasn't the reason but there certainly some other kickers that won it for guys in the playoffs.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Not us.
But his ADP at CBS & MFL is 93/98.
FBGs puts his consensus ADP at 10.10.
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Dezbelief
Footballguy
Wow, I would be passing at that price. I don't frequent CBS, but keeper/dynasty/mock drafts screw up MFL's ADP.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Doesn't seem like the 2 need to be mutually exclusive. Or were all those guys drafted in the same round as him?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Yahoo has him at 8.8, Gano 9.8, 3-4 Ks in the 10th. I presume a lot of that is casual autodrafters using default rankings.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Not sure how your kicking points work but for starters Gostowski didn't outscore other kickers but much last year. In ppg he was tied with Boswell and outscore kicker 7 by one point. That's not much of an advantage for a position that can easily and cheaply be replaced off waivers. You had to go all the way to the 16th K to find a 2 point edge for Gostowski. Then there's the opportunity cost. You might say that it's likely the guy you take will bust anyway. Very true, but what if he doesn't? Last year guys like Reed, Eiffert, Crabtree and David Johnson were being drafted in the last couple rounds of most drafts. Sure there were also a lot of useless players drafted there, but the advantage an Eiffert provided as opposed to Gostowski makes it pretty obvious why you don't take a K until the last possible moment. Already this year, there are people out there that drafted a K before Spencer Ware. Oops.
No reason to even draft a kicker unless you are drafting the night before the season starts.
No reason to even draft a kicker unless you are drafting the night before the season starts.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This is true of every position. Or were guys like Doug Baldwin, Charcandrick West, Blake Bortles, and Danny Woodhead early picks in your league last year?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Nice job reeling them in, DL.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The difference K1 and K12 last year was 41 points. That's roughly the same difference as there was in points scored between Doug Martin and DeMarco Murray last year. Roughly the same as the difference between Eric Decker and Allen Robinson last year. Roughly the same as the difference between Jordan Matthews and Demaryius Thomas last year.
How much would you pay to upgrade from Murray to Martin, or Decker to Robinson, or Matthews to Demaryius? A 15th round pick? Sounds like a pretty good deal to me.
The primary reason that kickers have traditionally been late draft picks is because there is enormous turnover at the position. The #1 guy from one year is more likely to finish #20 the next year than he is to finish #1 again. Gostowski is an exception, an outlier. A MAJOR outlier. He's finished 4th, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st the last 5 years. In fantasy kicker terms that's the equivalent of winning the Super Bowl 15 years in a row. There is no "next best guy". Anyone else is a massive step down.
At the cost of slightly downgrading one of your late sleepers (let's not forget, you're still drafting the same number of late sleepers, you're just taking one in the last round instead of the 15th round) he is a #######' bargain. Fantasy points count the same regardless of where they come from. Don't fall into the trap of assuming PK points count less. The weekly advantage he'll give you is as near to a sure thing as there is in fantasy football, and it comes at a position where there is generally NO sure thing from year to year from one player. That has good value. Certainly 15th round value.
How much would you pay to upgrade from Murray to Martin, or Decker to Robinson, or Matthews to Demaryius? A 15th round pick? Sounds like a pretty good deal to me.
The primary reason that kickers have traditionally been late draft picks is because there is enormous turnover at the position. The #1 guy from one year is more likely to finish #20 the next year than he is to finish #1 again. Gostowski is an exception, an outlier. A MAJOR outlier. He's finished 4th, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st the last 5 years. In fantasy kicker terms that's the equivalent of winning the Super Bowl 15 years in a row. There is no "next best guy". Anyone else is a massive step down.
At the cost of slightly downgrading one of your late sleepers (let's not forget, you're still drafting the same number of late sleepers, you're just taking one in the last round instead of the 15th round) he is a #######' bargain. Fantasy points count the same regardless of where they come from. Don't fall into the trap of assuming PK points count less. The weekly advantage he'll give you is as near to a sure thing as there is in fantasy football, and it comes at a position where there is generally NO sure thing from year to year from one player. That has good value. Certainly 15th round value.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
In my league last year Baldwin and Reed were drafted in the last round, when everyone else was drafting kickers, by someone that had taken a kicker a few rounds earlier.
Don't mistakenly think that you're not still drafting sleepers just because you drafted Gostowski a couple of rounds earlier. You still get the same number of sleepers. It just means you draft one a few rounds later. Given that most of those guys were actually towards the end of the sleeper list anyways, that may have an impact ranging from teeny tiny to none at all.
For positional players I would be surprised if there is a strong correlation between hit rate of sleepers within the last few rounds. That is, is a 15th round sleeper really any more likely to hit than an 18th round sleeper? I do know that a 15th round Gostowski is significantly more likely to hit than an 18th round kicker.
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Thunderlips
Footballguy
Out of all those guys, only West wouldn't have been on the mind of at the minimum 10 Team League - Average Interest Fantasy Players.
need2know
Footballguy
Because kickers don't matter. Would rather get any other position player. Kicker in last round no matter what
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Depends on what kind of league though. We get length bonuses....and we get minus points for FGs missed. Our league....Gost was at 171....with the 12 best K at 127. 3+ points a game....that adds up.....particularly if you combine that with the advantages of a quality D.
It is funny that guys who spend hours pouring over potential of a 6th string RB out of Jamoke State don't bother to give ANY thought at all to a position that a requirement in most fantasy football lineups.
need2know
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I think offshore lines are o/u 86.5 or something like that. Still about 21 ppg so you gotta figure he's good for 7-10 points over those games. Probably more than Terrance West will put up for you over that span. Also what if you end up drafting this year's Josh Scooby as your last round kicker. Oops. That's like a 2 TD swingponchsox said:
Thunderlips
Footballguy
You play in a league full of guys who don't know ####........what can I say?Oh sweet, how many fantasy points do you get for having a guy "on your mind"?
I just went back and looked at my 12 team league. All 5 of those guys were added off waivers at some point during the year.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
You think Doug Baldwin was still on a lot of rosters at last year's half way point when he had put up 340 yards and a TD in 8 games? You think he was on more rosters than Blair Walsh or Robbie Gould?
Blake Bortles was a common early season churn as well, as a speculative late round pick with a relatively mediocre start.
Woodhead I'll give you. I don't remember the circumstances behind his being dropped but I remember being surprised at the guy being in a heck of a roster crunch at the time.
Regardless those guys were only the beginning of the list. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kirk Cousins were top 5 QBs the second half of the year who were likely waiver picks in many leagues (ADPs of 264 and 285 so you'd have to draft 22+ rounds in a 12 team league or 26+ rounds in a 10 team league). Jeremy Langford and Javorious Allen were probably available on waivers at some point (RB5 and RB7 in the back half). DeAngelo probably hit waivers in a lot of leagues after Bell's suspension was over (RB1 the 2nd half of the year). A lot of people gave up on Sammy Watkins after a slow and injured first half of the year. Gary Barnidge, Zach Miller, and on and on we go.
Finding a good player on waivers is not at all unique to kickers.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
Was about to post just about the same point. Sure, if there's a guy I really expect to do well I'll take him ahead of gost, but I'll probably take him before I'd take gost anyway. The last few rounds of most leagues are about the same so I'll take gost, Gano, haushka or tucker before the last couple rounds.FreeBaGeL said:
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
my honest answer (tho I am drunmk) is I would rather take a backup RB or WR that can turn into an every week starter. I would actually use (and have done this in the past) my final round pick on another skill position player and just cut a guy before the game to pick up a kicker. a huge part of fantasy football is hitting on that big player. you want to give yourself as many chances as possible to hit big. no one ever won their league because of a kicker. no shtick, I once played a week without a kicker because i was undefeated and didn't want to drop any of my position players.Dan Lambskin said:
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
The advantage a late round sleeper RB or WR getting the starting job mid season is much greater than what any kicker will give you. All you need is a kicker that can consistently get you a FG or 2 and a couple PATs, that's it. I have yet to see a guy win his league because he took a kicker earlier than others but I have seen plenty win because they hit big on a late round pick like Freeman last year.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Looked at last year's leagues Gostkowski owners
Keep 3 - drafted 6.12 (2nd place finish)
Dynasty - 2nd place
Auction - $3 (out of $400) 4-9 out of playoff
Redraft (dont know where picked live draft) 2nd place
Redraft (again don't recall) - 2nd place
So 4/5 leagues the Gostkowski owner made the title game.Coincidence?
Keep 3 - drafted 6.12 (2nd place finish)
Dynasty - 2nd place
Auction - $3 (out of $400) 4-9 out of playoff
Redraft (dont know where picked live draft) 2nd place
Redraft (again don't recall) - 2nd place
So 4/5 leagues the Gostkowski owner made the title game.Coincidence?
