Sir Psycho
Footballguy
Mine are:
1- Sea
2- Den
3- Arizona
1- Sea
2- Den
3- Arizona
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Who's your top 3 DST ? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sir Psycho
- Start date
packer_junkie
Footballguy
carolina
Dismattle
Footballguy
I think we would need to consider both scoring possible on the offensive side of the ball and schedule..
Luv me some AZ featuring Honey Badger Everybody knows Fenver is one ugly mug
Is it possible we should consider teams like KC?
Otherwise yeah, both Carolina and Seattle should be teams to be reckoned
Luv me some AZ featuring Honey Badger Everybody knows Fenver is one ugly mug
Is it possible we should consider teams like KC?
Otherwise yeah, both Carolina and Seattle should be teams to be reckoned
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
The Broncos might be better than they were a year ago.
For FF purposes, ARI & SEA because they get 4 games each against LA & SF.
For FF purposes, ARI & SEA because they get 4 games each against LA & SF.
Sir Psycho
Footballguy
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Seattle homer in my league took 5 Seahawks this year, and he missed Lockett & Rawls. QB/K/DST + C-Mike + Kearse.
Buttonhook
Footballguy
I like the KC call. In weeks 10-16 they were #1 Def by a substantial margin.
They play AFC West, didn't lose core defensive players, and their offense plays ball-control, low turnover football.
I would be happy to take them after DEN, SEA, HOU, ARI, CAR... get taken.
They play AFC West, didn't lose core defensive players, and their offense plays ball-control, low turnover football.
I would be happy to take them after DEN, SEA, HOU, ARI, CAR... get taken.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
I really want to see what watt and clowney can do together
If we've learned anything, it's that the top defenses in any given year are rarely the ones we expect going in (who was picking Den/Car last year?) So the question really becomes, which highly ranked defenses will disappoint, and which will come out of nowhere to become elite?
I'd guess AZ falls off if Honey Badger isn't back to 100%. We saw what happened with them in the playoffs. And I *love* the Eagles this year. Schwartz has proven he's a difference maker. Could also see Oakland making a leap, although I'm less certain of that.
I'd guess AZ falls off if Honey Badger isn't back to 100%. We saw what happened with them in the playoffs. And I *love* the Eagles this year. Schwartz has proven he's a difference maker. Could also see Oakland making a leap, although I'm less certain of that.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
I do expect Philly to be better but do they have the talent to be a Tier 1?
But that's an excellent point that an unexpected FF DT/DST emerges every year.
Two dark horses I like:
Detroit - very talented & deep D-line, Levy is healthy again, Slay is an outstanding corner. Should be a + matchup in four of their six divisional games
Giants - invested in a run stopper, an edge rusher, a gambling CB (to pair with a gambling QB), JPP will play more this year. Could see them being vastly improved. Their six divisional games are against 0 teams who put up 400 points (& unlikely to do so this year either.) DAL & PHI had 64 turnovers a year ago.
Boston
Footballguy
Agreed...BB all of a sudden has a hard on for pass rushers (thank God...finally)...they have some real athletes getting after the QB right now...very noticeable...also, if you get points for returns Cyrus Jones looks awesome on punt returns and DJ Foster looks like he can help out in the return game as well...
Who tiers defenses? It is so random that even the top defense scores below average more weeks of the year then it scores above average.
Lions is a good pick. Austin had one of the best defenses in NFL history two years ago, and last year's drop-off was as much about losing Levy as it was about losing Suh.
As for Giants, my only worry is that Spags has basically had two good season as a DC ('07-'08 Giants) and hasn't done much since as a HC or DC. I don't know what the data show, but it seems to me like a good DC can overcome mediocre talent, but a bad one can squander good talent (see Rex last year).
Also, in terms of potential disappointments, I think Phillips has a history of diminishing returns after a strong first year (which is why he seems to change teams every few years despite being a defensive genius).
ourmanflint
Footballguy
Went back and looked at Schwartz's defenses either as defensive coordinator or head coach. I note year, team and defensive rank for fantasy points. I used FFPC scoring rules.
--------------------
2001, Titans, 28
2002, Titans, 11
2003, Titans, 5
2004, Titans, 21
2005, Titans, 15
2006, Titans, 4
2007, Titans, 17
2008, Titans, 8
2009, Lions, 27
2010, Lions, 8
2011, Lions, 1
2012, Lions, 29
2013, Lions, 25
2014, Bills, 4
--------------------
To recap:
* 14 total years as defensive coordinator or head coach
* 4 times in the top five fantasy defenses
* 2 more times as 8th ranked fantasy defense
* 7 times ranked 15th or worse
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
Metrics say Den, NE, Sea in that order.
skinsrule05
Footballguy
This is good info. Since we are focussed on defense here can you remove the years that he was a head coach. Which years was he solely focused on the defense?
ourmanflint
Footballguy
He was head coach only for the Lions. All other years (in this list) he was defensive coordinator.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Seahawks.
skinsrule05
Footballguy
Ok, so out of 9 years he was top 5 three times and top 10 four times.
He he has the coaching skills but do the Eagles have the players?
thatguy
Footballguy
I can't document it, but I was definitely expecting huge things from Denver D going into last season. The writing was on the wall, really, for anyone that was looking. I ended up with them in every one of my leagues. They had studs at every position plus had brought in Wade Phillips which was a huge bump in and of itself but it also meant a switch from 4-3 to 3-4 which was a much better fit for their personnel, particularly their abundance of pass rushing OLB's and the general size and skill sets of their DL's.
Denver and Seattle should be near the top again, but I like the KC defense as others have mentioned as a D you can get a little later than Denver/Seattle/Carolina/etc. but should be right up near the top.
ETA: In a league in which I traded the Denver D mid season, the KC D was a key piece in my championship run. They were a set it and forget it D for the final 6 or 7 weeks of the season. That's a rare commodity.
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Dismattle
Footballguy
Philly allowed almost 6,000 yds last Season.. (Giants 6,300)
I realize thats just one aspect of a big picture..
But for reference both Denver and Seattle were closer 4,300
If we looks at sacks, turnovers, and picks The numbers aint so bad
Honestly it could be a nice SOS, so ya really should consider waiting a few Seasons to really judge how the new Coach effected the outcome.
Personally the way Ive seen the run defense just smashed right up the middle?
I think Top 15 would be an incredible performance
I realize thats just one aspect of a big picture..
But for reference both Denver and Seattle were closer 4,300
If we looks at sacks, turnovers, and picks The numbers aint so bad
Honestly it could be a nice SOS, so ya really should consider waiting a few Seasons to really judge how the new Coach effected the outcome.
Personally the way Ive seen the run defense just smashed right up the middle?
I think Top 15 would be an incredible performance
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Captain Hook
Footballguy
I think Mathieu is pretty close BUT even if not I think Chandler Jones and Nkemdiche make the defense much better - both on the field and for FF
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Not a bad call...zftcg said:
worldclass
Footballguy
I'm a Seahawks homer, although realistic most years. Honestly feel like this team is just going to come together so well this year. They have the feel of being the top scoring offense in the league, D is going to give the O such great field position, and the offensive weapons now are deep.
worldclass
Footballguy
I really like Green Bay's D. They have potential to have a Denver 2015-esque year as far as surprising people at being the top fantasy DST. And they're currently being traded as the 14th defense off the board, which is an absolute steal.
They've been accumulating young defensive talent for several years now. They have their star linebacker in Matthews who they've moved outside linebacker where he can be once again a force at the edge pressuring QBs. Still have Peppers too, but other than those two all of their starters are in their 20s. They have a top 5 secondary in the NFL with Shields/Clinton-Dix/Burnett/Randall/Rollins.
Schedule is really nice, they get Bortles (1st in INTs last year, 1st in sacks), Stafford twice (6th in INTs, 6th in sacks), Matt Ryan (3rd in INTs), Eli (7th in INTs), Bradford (8th in INTs) plus they face Dak & Shaun Hill twice. And to top it off they get Cutler twice, whose gone 2-11 vs. Green Bay in his career, boasting 16 tds to 22 ints.
They get to play @ Chicago & Minnesota in most of the fantasy semi-finals & finals in weeks 15 & 16.
Compare that to Denver who has New England & @ Kansas City in week 15 & 16 or Seattle & Arizona who play one another week 16, Carolina has @ Washington week 15.
They've been accumulating young defensive talent for several years now. They have their star linebacker in Matthews who they've moved outside linebacker where he can be once again a force at the edge pressuring QBs. Still have Peppers too, but other than those two all of their starters are in their 20s. They have a top 5 secondary in the NFL with Shields/Clinton-Dix/Burnett/Randall/Rollins.
Schedule is really nice, they get Bortles (1st in INTs last year, 1st in sacks), Stafford twice (6th in INTs, 6th in sacks), Matt Ryan (3rd in INTs), Eli (7th in INTs), Bradford (8th in INTs) plus they face Dak & Shaun Hill twice. And to top it off they get Cutler twice, whose gone 2-11 vs. Green Bay in his career, boasting 16 tds to 22 ints.
They get to play @ Chicago & Minnesota in most of the fantasy semi-finals & finals in weeks 15 & 16.
Compare that to Denver who has New England & @ Kansas City in week 15 & 16 or Seattle & Arizona who play one another week 16, Carolina has @ Washington week 15.
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VaTerp
Footballguy
For the price I like-
MIN
GB
NYJ
HOU
I do like DEN, SEA, ARI but I doubt I'll pay the price to acquire in my 3 drafts coming up. The highest drafted Ds seem (I have no idea what data would actually show) to rarerly be worth the price. Good NFL Ds obviously don't always make for good FF Ds, turnovers and DST TDs can be fluky, and a lot depends on league scoring differentials.
Some other good names thrown out are KC- who were great down the stretch last year, NE. I haven't seen BUF thrown out. I spent relatively highly for them in my auction last year and they were a major dissapointment. They could be a D that finishes high if they can figure out a way to pressure QBs in Ryan's 2nd year.
Who are the upcoming pass rushers in the league now? Seems like a good way to find Ds who will have value and can be drafted for $1 or picked up on the ww.
MIN
GB
NYJ
HOU
I do like DEN, SEA, ARI but I doubt I'll pay the price to acquire in my 3 drafts coming up. The highest drafted Ds seem (I have no idea what data would actually show) to rarerly be worth the price. Good NFL Ds obviously don't always make for good FF Ds, turnovers and DST TDs can be fluky, and a lot depends on league scoring differentials.
Some other good names thrown out are KC- who were great down the stretch last year, NE. I haven't seen BUF thrown out. I spent relatively highly for them in my auction last year and they were a major dissapointment. They could be a D that finishes high if they can figure out a way to pressure QBs in Ryan's 2nd year.
Who are the upcoming pass rushers in the league now? Seems like a good way to find Ds who will have value and can be drafted for $1 or picked up on the ww.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
And yet had been failed to be mentioned in the first 30 posts and they are available in more than half my leagues on the wire at this point. But thanks for the contribution.
Touchy! It was just a joke. Jax may be improved this year, but I don't think it will be out of nowhere.
Personally, I don't see it. Just feels like too many new pieces to integrate. Reminds me a little of Miami last year.
Actually, this whole discussion has made me realize something about my own thought process: I place far more emphasis on the coordinator than on the personnel. Obviously, that doesn't mean I think guys like Watt or Sherman don't make a difference. But if we're talking about what's changed from last year, give me the team that went out and hired a proven DC over one that signed the marquee free agent or drafted a hotshot rookie (or even, in Jax's case, that did each of the latter two).
I freely admit that it's entirely based on anecdotal data (mostly the fact that I'm still kicking myself for picking Miami over Denver last year). But it does make sense at an intuitive level. Football has become so much about the scheme, and the best DCs can figure out how to work with what they're given. Plus, even the good ones end up changing teams frequently, so there are lots of instances of guys with strong track records stepping into new situations. I'd be curious to see the data, though.
The Jacket
Footballguy
KC fan, unfortunately this isn't accurate. They lost Sean Smith, who had a great year opposite Peters, and have crippling injuries at rush backer. They're VERY young at corner. I like to be optimistic but they could struggle for the first half of the year at least. Might be a good 2nd half team, depends on Houston's return from injury and the corner development.
DerekR
Footballguy
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