Looking at this from a season-long view:
I am only in one, but it's a monster. 7,000 entries, $100 each. Yeah. PM me for details.
So, I am not in one that will end week 3. The wrinkle in my league is this: With so many entries, if there are 300+ entries still alive by week 11, entries have to choose TWO that week. THe following week, if there are 200+, same thing. So week 11, looms large, as does the possibility of selecting multiple entries the rest of the season.
I go team-by-team, labeling a game as a possible, or strong play. A strong play to me is non-divisional, at home, and against a lesser team. I don't care the talent difference between divisonal opponents, most Survivor Blood Baths can be traced back to a 'gimme' dividional games. Being at home is big, everyone knows it, but people still get tempted, and get burned every week. One thing that can get extra attention from me is when the opponent is playing 2nd road game in a row. If I have a Cicncy, playing at home against the Rams playing their 2nd road game in a row, that's all you can ask. I really hate when you are betting on a worst team contest. Games between terrible teams is always tough to pick, to me anyway.
But then I look by week. There are always weeks where there are few strong plays. Just having a schedule grid with the strong plays marked makes it so easy. There are some weeks that look a lot tougher to pick than others. I like having a plan for those weeks. Saving an average team who has their juiciest matchup is an otherwise tough week is key.
Week 2, right off the bat, has few home runs, and even some home favorites will be teams that I don''t think anyone knows which way they will go. DET vs TEN will get some play, depending on how Stafford looks week 1. I could see him hanging 40 points on Indy, and letting everyone down at home the next week. A lot of people will be on GB at MIN, but that's divisional and on the road. Oakland at home against the Falcons looks to be popular as well. Other than that.....
Week 8 is the worst. Packers, Cardinals, Patriots, Seahawks, Chiefs, Raiders are all on the road. Denver at home vs. SD is going to be a popular choice. CIN has WAS at home, which could be a possible, WAS is playing 2nd road game, but both these teams fit into the category of not knowing exactly what they are yet. WAS could have a fast start, I can easily see that if Cousins is the goods.
I am always looking for value that presents itself during the season. If there is a team that emerges, it's always nice to be able to add a late season game of theirs to the possibles.