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Predict the Week 17 flex game! (1 Viewer)

Z

zftcg

Footballguy
I remember there was a thread like this last year that started around Week 14 or so, but I thought it would be fun to go on record before the season even starts and predict which game will get flexed to SNF on the last week of the season.

A couple reminders of the ground rules:

  • All Week 17 games are divisional matchups
  • The NFL reserves the right to flex any game it wants
  • The most important criteria appears to be that the game has to matter for both teams, independent of the result from any other game.
  • The first few years the rule was in effect, the league went with "loser leaves town" match-ups, but the past two years, they've gone with games where both teams were already in the playoffs, but were fighting for a divisional championship (eg, GB-MINN last year).
  • Schedule here.
A couple thoughts:

  • I think we can safely eliminate both NFC West matchups (since the two teams likely to be battling for the division, Seattle and Arizona, aren't playing each other that week). Could be a similar situation with the AFC South (Colts and Texans don't play each other) and AFC North (Steelers and Bengals, same deal)
  • I also think the AFC East match-ups are unlikely, since when have the Pats failed to clinch before Week 17?
Based on all of that, here are some match-ups that could potentially be flex-worthy:

  • Packers-Lions (less a vote of confidence in the Lions than a vote against Minny/Chicago)
  • Colts-Jags (if Jax finally puts it all together)
  • Bengals-Ravens (if you assume last year was an aberration for Baltimore)
  • Chiefs-Chargers or Broncos-Raiders (AFC West is wide open this year)
But the match-up I consider most likely to be flexed into Sunday Night is Giants-Washington. The other two teams in the division are likely to have rookie QBs for the majority of the season. Washington is obviously the defending champs, and the Giants are a hot sleeper pick who seem to pull a division title out of their butts every few years. Finally, if the NFL has a chance to put the biggest media market in prime time, it's not going to turn it down.

 
Thought I'd revisit this topic. At this point, there are only two possibilities left where the top two teams are facing off in Week 17: NFC North (Det-GB) and AFC South (Hou-Tenn). Based on name recognition alone, unless Detroit clinches this weekend (they would need to beat Dallas while GB loses to Minnesota) the league/NBC will almost certainly bend over backward to get Rodgers vs. Stafford over Mariota vs., um, Tom Savage.

BTW, we'll likely know by Sunday afternoon what the stakes will be. If Green Bay beats Minnesota Saturday afternoon, the Detroit match-up is automatically for the division regardless of what the Lions do on MNF. Similarly, if Tenn beats Jax, Hou-Tenn is for the division regardless of what the Texans do vs. Cinci.

Only possible way I could see it being Hou-Tenn is if GB loses this week. Then the league has to worry about Detroit beating Dallas and clinching the division, rendering the Week 17 game meaningless. And I'm pretty sure they can't wait until late Monday to make their decision.

 
Spot on. Sure they're hoping for the NFC North game. They will certainly go for a "play-in" game. Can't risk having something happen earlier on Sunday in Week 17 that renders the night game meaningless 

 
zftcg said:
Thought I'd revisit this topic. At this point, there are only two possibilities left where the top two teams are facing off in Week 17: NFC North (Det-GB) and AFC South (Hou-Tenn). Based on name recognition alone, unless Detroit clinches this weekend (they would need to beat Dallas while GB loses to Minnesota) the league/NBC will almost certainly bend over backward to get Rodgers vs. Stafford over Mariota vs., um, Tom Savage.

BTW, we'll likely know by Sunday afternoon what the stakes will be. If Green Bay beats Minnesota Saturday afternoon, the Detroit match-up is automatically for the division regardless of what the Lions do on MNF. Similarly, if Tenn beats Jax, Hou-Tenn is for the division regardless of what the Texans do vs. Cinci.

Only possible way I could see it being Hou-Tenn is if GB loses this week. Then the league has to worry about Detroit beating Dallas and clinching the division, rendering the Week 17 game meaningless. And I'm pretty sure they can't wait until late Monday to make their decision.
Click to expand...
Why couldn't they wait another day?  The teams are in town, Anyways.  It's not like they'd be flexing to MNF, just 7 hours, later.

 
Does the 5 games on national TV affect the week 17 flex game?

Pack has been on Sunday night 3 times,  Monday night once and  Thursday night once.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Here is a bunch of good info:

http://sports.morganwick.com/category/football/nfl/snf-flex-scheduling-watch/#sthash.CquithV5.dpbs

I guess the 5-times thing doesn't matter and/or one of those doesn't count (maybe Thursday nights?)
Click to expand...
Great site. Love to see someone who's even more nerdily obsessed with the subject than I am.

I think he says that Week 17 was officially exempted from the 5-time limit starting this year. I had assumed it always was. Why should the league let that stand in the way of showing the best possible game on SNF? Remember, the genesis of the Week 17 flex was the 2009 game where the Bengals laid down on SNF, since they were locked in to a spot (and didn't want to tip their hand to the Jets, who they would end up playing the following week). So the entire goal is to show a competitive, meaningful (to both sides) game.

 
jabarony said:
Why couldn't they wait another day?  The teams are in town, Anyways.  It's not like they'd be flexing to MNF, just 7 hours, later.
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The NFL's official rules state that in all other weeks, flex decisions must be made at least 12 days in advance, and in Week 17 they let it go to 6. My guess is there are some logistical issues involved at the venue where they need to give them as much notice as possible. I also suspect NBC likes to announce it on its own SNF telecast the week before, ideally at halftime.

 
Am I right in that if Tampa and Wash lose earlier in week 17 that Det and GB would both clinch spots and would only be playing for the division and the home playoff game that comes with? 

 
houston said:
Am I right in that if Tampa and Wash lose earlier in week 17 that Det and GB would both clinch spots and would only be playing for the division and the home playoff game that comes with? 
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Bucs are eliminated unless Wash and the Giants tie (among other things). Obviously if the Lions win or tie tonight, they're in. But yeah, if Wash loses, the Detroit-GB is just for positioning. At the same time, there still wouldn't be a more pivotal game. Texans-Titans means nothing, and for Pats-Dolphins, the worst NE can two is 2nd and the best Miami can be is 5th, so yeah.  Plus really, both teams would rather be hosting a game.

Technically, Detroit still has a chance to be the 2 seed, though that involves winning tonight and the Falcons losing to the Saints. If that doesn't happen, the winner next week is 4th and the loser at best 6th unless Seattle slips up in SF.

 
Resuscitating this topic for 2017. Refresher on the ground rules:

  • All Week 17 games are divisional matchups
  • The NFL reserves the right to flex any game it wants
  • The most important criteria appears to be that the game has to matter for both teams, independent of the result from any other game.
  • The first few years the rule was in effect, the league went with "loser leaves town" match-ups, but the past three years, they've gone with games where both teams were already in the playoffs, but were fighting for a divisional championship (eg, GB-DET last year).
  • 2017 schedule here
Most likely candidates:

  • CAR-ATL
  • DAL-PHI
  • AZ-SEA
  • NYJ-NE (just seeing if you were paying attention)  :P
Other possibilities:

  • CIN-BAL
  • NO-TB
  • GB-DET (doubt they'd run the exact same game again unless it was their only choice)
  • WAS-NYG
  • OAK-LAC
  • KC-DEN
Zero chance:

  • JAX-TENN
  • CLE-PITT
  • BUF-MIA
  • SF-LAR
I'll put an early marker down on Cowboys-Eagles. Of all the match-ups, that's the one where both teams seem likely to be fighting it out for the division. And of course, NBC is going to bend over backward to have Dallas if the opportunity presents itself.

 
zftcg said:
Resuscitating this topic for 2017. Refresher on the ground rules:

  • All Week 17 games are divisional matchups
  • The NFL reserves the right to flex any game it wants
  • The most important criteria appears to be that the game has to matter for both teams, independent of the result from any other game.
  • The first few years the rule was in effect, the league went with "loser leaves town" match-ups, but the past three years, they've gone with games where both teams were already in the playoffs, but were fighting for a divisional championship (eg, GB-DET last year).
  • 2017 schedule here
Most likely candidates:

  • CAR-ATL
  • DAL-PHI
  • AZ-SEA
  • NYJ-NE (just seeing if you were paying attention)  :P
Other possibilities:

  • CIN-BAL
  • NO-TB
  • GB-DET (doubt they'd run the exact same game again unless it was their only choice)
  • WAS-NYG
  • OAK-LAC
  • KC-DEN
Zero chance:

  • JAX-TENN
  • CLE-PITT
  • BUF-MIA
  • SF-LAR
I'll put an early marker down on Cowboys-Eagles. Of all the match-ups, that's the one where both teams seem likely to be fighting it out for the division. And of course, NBC is going to bend over backward to have Dallas if the opportunity presents itself.
Click to expand...
Time for a midseason check-in. Dallas-Philly is still in play, but it looks like the Eagles could be running away with the division. Car-Atl and Buffalo-Miami look to be evenly matched teams, but both divisions have other teams that are likely to be leading.

It's actually looking like the option I dismissed as having zero chance may be the best bet: Jax-Tenn. They will almost certainly finish 1-2 in the AFC South. Only question is whether the race will remain close enough to come down to the final week.

Of course, if it did happen you'd probably see NBC pulling Buffalo Wild Wings commercial shenanigans to ensure that  the flex game includes literally anyone else.

 
The question is let's say the only two viable options are JAX-TEN in a true elimination game and DAL-PHI, but the NFC East is already clinched, and the only thing on the line is the Eagles playing for the 1 seed.  

Would they simply try to pop a rating and pick the less competitively meaningful game?  I say yes.

 
Philly is only 2 games ahead of Dallas in the loss column, they still play twice, and the Eagles schedule the next month is rough.  I see Philly/Dallas being the week 17 flex game, barring an injury that cripples one of these teams. 

 
Ted Lange as your Bartender said:
The question is let's say the only two viable options are JAX-TEN in a true elimination game and DAL-PHI, but the NFC East is already clinched, and the only thing on the line is the Eagles playing for the 1 seed.  

Would they simply try to pop a rating and pick the less competitively meaningful game?  I say yes.
Click to expand...
I say no. Remember the impetus for the Week 17 rules was when the Bengals lay down for a meaningless SNF game because they were locked into their seed. I think the NFL won't risk that happening again.

 
zftcg said:
I say no. Remember the impetus for the Week 17 rules was when the Bengals lay down for a meaningless SNF game because they were locked into their seed. I think the NFL won't risk that happening again.
Click to expand...
Agreed, but in the scenario I laid out I'd find it hard to believe that Dallas would lay down for Philly getting HFA.  I could be mistaken of course.

 
zftcg said:
You think Rams will be out of the race?
Click to expand...
You never know what's going to happen in the NFC West. The Seattle/AZ game could be for division champ, or winner gets the last wild card spot. Loser goes home. I see the Rams going 10-6, but that could be enough to win it. I think that game will have huge playoff implications, so I could see it being flexed.

 
seahawk 17 said:
You never know what's going to happen in the NFC West. The Seattle/AZ game could be for division champ, or winner gets the last wild card spot. Loser goes home. I see the Rams going 10-6, but that could be enough to win it. I think that game will have huge playoff implications, so I could see it being flexed.
Click to expand...
Here's why I think it's unlikely we'd see two teams playing for the wildcard in Week 17: It's not just that the game has to be meaningful for both teams, it's that it has to be meaningful for both independent of the outcome of any other game. It's theoretically possible that could happen, but it's much less likely in the case of a wildcard.

Here's what I mean: Let's say Seattle and Arizona both come out of Week 16 at 8-7, and NBC wants to put them on SNF the following week. However, Washington is also 8-7, and let's say they hold a tiebreakers over both teams. Washington is playing their final game at 1:00. If they lose, NBC gets its loser-leaves-town match-up. But if they win, they clinch the final spot, rendering the Sea-AZ game meaningless.

We only have a few years' worth of history to go off of, but my inclination is that the league (and NBC) will always choose stakes over popularity. That is, they'll take Jax-Tenn for all the marbles over Sea-AZ or Dallas-Philly if there's even a chance it'll end up being meaningless for at least one team.

At this point, my wild-a## guess is 50% likelihood of Jax-Tenn, 40% Dallas-Philly (based on the scenario @Ghost Rider describes, and because if the Cowboys do make it a race, you know NBC will default to that choice) and 10% the field.

 
Time for another check-in. Jax-Tenn is still very much in play (much to NBC's consternation, I'm sure), but Car-Atl is lurking. The problem is that NO still seems to be in the driver's seat for the title, and as I outlined in my post above, it's very hard to have a wildcard play-in because the result needs to be independent of any other game. Hard to imagine Seattle won't still be in the mix.

Another possibility that's emerged: If KC continues its free fall and LAC/Oak keep hanging around, they could end up playing for the division in Week 17. That would be another one NBC wouldn't be so excited about.

Given that there are no other realistic possibilities, I'll eliminate the field and say 50% chance of Jax-Tenn and 25% each for Car-Atl and LAC/Oak. I actually think there's less of a chance Car-Atl will happen, but I'm bumping it up because if given the option NBC will definitely prefer that over the other choices.

 
Insein said:
Yea but one will have good teams.
Click to expand...
Which game would that be?  :lmao:

Something I learned from Bill Barnwell today: According to FPI, there is a 91% chance that both the Jags and Titans make the playoffs. As we've seen over the past three years, the NFL has no problem flexing a game where both teams are already in, but if you believe they're going to bend over backward to avoid Jags-Titans, that could be one more point against.

One other tidbit from Barnwell: Chiefs are still 3-2 favorites to win the AFC West, which would make it harder for Oak/LA to play for the title (and it is also highly unlikely that the West runner-up will be a wildcard). Having said that, I think FPI's model is underestimating the funk that KC is in right now. They're really having trouble beating anyone.

 
zftcg said:
Which game would that be?  :lmao:

Something I learned from Bill Barnwell today: According to FPI, there is a 91% chance that both the Jags and Titans make the playoffs. As we've seen over the past three years, the NFL has no problem flexing a game where both teams are already in, but if you believe they're going to bend over backward to avoid Jags-Titans, that could be one more point against.

One other tidbit from Barnwell: Chiefs are still 3-2 favorites to win the AFC West, which would make it harder for Oak/LA to play for the title (and it is also highly unlikely that the West runner-up will be a wildcard). Having said that, I think FPI's model is underestimating the funk that KC is in right now. They're really having trouble beating anyone.
Click to expand...
A team that lost to the bills and jets is not making the playoffs

 
Awful Announcing weighs in. They seem to think it will be Jags-Titans. But I actually think that's become less likely as both teams have been heading in different directions. If Jags win OR Titans lose this week (and both are the predicted outcome), Jags clinch the division.

Meanwhile, if both the Panthers and Falcons win next week, their Week 17 game would be for the division. But if either of them lose, they would likely be eliminated from the division race, and the wildcard race would be dependent on a lot of other teams like Detroit, Dallas and Seattle.

Nightmare scenario for the NBC is Jags clinch, Panthers-Falcons gets flexed without knowing what the stakes will be, and by the time Sunday night rolls around both teams are locked into their seeds and have nothing to play for.

Also, the field can safely be eliminated at this point. It will either be Jags-Titans or Panthers-Falcons. I don't care how much you think Eagles-Cowboys is a marquis matchup, NBC is not putting Nate Sudfeld in prime time.

 
Ted Lange as your Bartender said:
Is there even a game available that has zero chance of being meaningless?
Click to expand...
Correct me if this is wrong, but I think the two games that will affect Car-Atl are NO-TB and SEA-AZ. If Saints win, they clinch the division. Otherwise, Panthers can clinch with a win. Meanwhile, if Seattle loses Falcons are in.

So best case for the NFL/NBC is Carolina playing for the division and Falcons are win-or-go-home. Worst case is they're playing to determine who's the 5 seed and who's the 6

 
That won't work, Carolina has 11 wins vs. Atlanta's 9.

It's not quite 100%, but if Pittsburgh wins tomorrow, figure a 99% chance that Pittsburgh beats Cleveland...so a 99% chance that NE-Jets is meaningful.

 
AB in DC said:
That won't work, Carolina has 11 wins vs. Atlanta's 9.

It's not quite 100%, but if Pittsburgh wins tomorrow, figure a 99% chance that Pittsburgh beats Cleveland...so a 99% chance that NE-Jets is meaningful.
Click to expand...
You're right. So if NO and AZ win, Carolina and Atlanta are locked into 5/6. Still think that's the game they show because it's the only game between two playoff teams

 
zftcg said:
You're right. So if NO and AZ win, Carolina and Atlanta are locked into 5/6. Still think that's the game they show because it's the only game between two playoff teams
Click to expand...
Thinking about this and more, putting Carolina and Atlanta in primetime might be actively unfair to Seattle or New Orleans. Let's say both of those teams win early in Sunday. Now the Falcons face a must win but Carolina is locked in to the 5 seed.  Reverse is the true if they both lose

 
tommy300 said:
Just saw an NFL alert on ESPN, no night game next week.
Click to expand...
Wow. I didn't realize that was even an option. Makes sense, though. 

I also wonder whether the game being on New Year's Eve played a role. In a year where ratings have been down, a meaningless SNF game while everyone is out partying could generate even worse press.

Here's the story. All games with playoff implications have been moved to 4:00: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000898321/article/nfl-finalizes-week-17-schedule-no-sunday-night-football-game

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Does jax have anything to play for??  Figure they might sandbag since tenn v jax is likely first round matchup

 
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