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ZWK's 2017 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)

I'm on board EBF, JuJu has a hill to climb. It's just a matter of how high that hill or mountain is. He took a big hit this year production wise compared to his previous year. 

The perception of USC WR "HISTORICALLY" flopping in the NFL is clearly against him whether it's justified or not, then he had the "regression" this year which are causing concern for most people.

Tex

 
@EBF@BigTex I'm confused about why JuJu Smith-Schuster's production dropped so much from 2015 to 2016, when USC's passing production basically stayed the same and their passing efficiency when not throwing to JuJu got better.

 
ZWK said:
@EBF@BigTex I'm confused about why JuJu Smith-Schuster's production dropped so much from 2015 to 2016, when USC's passing production basically stayed the same and their passing efficiency when not throwing to JuJu got better.
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Hi ZWK, JuJu will be highly debatable this year.

Was it the foot injury he sustained during practice before the Alabama game? Maybe!

Was it the back pain he dealt with during most of the season? Maybe!

These injuries that he played through don't show up in numbers yet the can't be ignored. Along the the QB play we really don't know how much of the injuries affected his play that's anyone's guest. Ignoring the fact that he dealt with injuries this season is what everyone has forgotten.

The JuJu Smith we saw at the end of the year looked like the player we saw last year and that's what I'm banking on. He looked much better and more explosive in the games I watched at the end of the year vs the player I saw at the beginning and knowing he had the injuries and still played through them is a plus for me. 

Tex

 
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Is kupp creeping into late first consideration? Guess it depends on his combine performance, but it seems like wr is a little overlooked so far.

 
I see a clear top three that I can't separate now.

I don't see a clear cut other WR right now that I like in the 1st of rookie drafts (Top 12)

i like Dupree's skill set and think it will translate to the NFL. Malone's, too. Goodwin, Hansen and Darboh intrigue me for value.

Cannon is a bit thin. Ford, too. Not sure Ross is big enough (doesn't play physical)

 
Watching a lot of Godwin the last several years his ceiling comp for me is Anquan Boldin. I think they share a number of similar traits (not overly dynamic, strong, driven, very good run blockers, solid route runners). Boldin had to work hard because he was transitioning from QB to WR. That allowed him to become a great NFL WR. I think if Godwin keeps working very hard, he can come close to reaching Boldin's heights.

 
Snorkelson said:
Is kupp creeping into late first consideration? Guess it depends on his combine performance, but it seems like wr is a little overlooked so far.
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He didn't live up to the hype this year we know he has the skill set but it hasn't exactly panned out on the football field. With him I'll personally put a little more weight on the round he's drafted rather than his Combine numbers.

The Combine doesn't necessarily move players up or down the ranking/board for me it only confirms or conflicts what I've seen. When it's in conflicts with my ranking/board I go back and take another look and see if it's something I missed.

Tex

 
ZWK said:
Just Win Baby said:
@ZWK, also interested in your take on two N.C. State players: RB Matt Dayes and TE/H-back Jaylen Samuels. I see Dayes in your RB spreadsheet, but I'm not well versed enough in your rankings to guess at whether or not you would expect him to be drafted and whether or not you would expect him to see playing time in the NFL...
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Keep the names coming. The RBs in my original post were the ones who already rate as decent prospects based on their numbers through last season. I'm keeping a longer list of guys who I want to take a look at (often based on other people bringing them up). Mixon was on that longer list and I've now added Dayes.
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FWIW, Dayes was a standout at the Senior Bowl. He measured in at 5'8", 207, with the biggest hands among RBs there.

Bucky Brooks said Dayes "has been a top performer in practices over the past two days. He's shown outstanding footwork, great balance and excellent body control." Brooks also said he was told by coaches that Dayes was the best blocker among RBs there.

As for the game, Dayes had 7/66/1 rushing (9.4 ypc).

 
BigTex said:
He didn't live up to the hype this year we know he has the skill set but it hasn't exactly panned out on the football field. With him I'll personally put a little more weight on the round he's drafted rather than his Combine numbers.

The Combine doesn't necessarily move players up or down the ranking/board for me it only confirms or conflicts what I've seen. When it's in conflicts with my ranking/board I go back and take another look and see if it's something I missed.

Tex
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Are we talking about the same guy @BigTex? Kupp had 117/1700/17, how is that not panning out on the football field? In his 4 yrs he never had less than 1400 yds or 16 tds. He even somehow added 5-7/135/1 passing line this year. Also had positive buzz all week at senior bowl practice. Granted he is playing D2 or whatever they call it now, but he's dominated since his freshman year.

 
Snorkelson said:
Are we talking about the same guy @BigTex? Kupp had 117/1700/17, how is that not panning out on the football field? In his 4 yrs he never had less than 1400 yds or 16 tds. He even somehow added 5-7/135/1 passing line this year. Also had positive buzz all week at senior bowl practice. Granted he is playing D2 or whatever they call it now, but he's dominated since his freshman year.
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Lol, no and yes! I was thinking about Dupre who was all hyped and never lived up to it but I do have concerns about Kupp too. Even though he performed 20% over the age baseline he's nearly 24yrs old. His age a cause for concern and I watched most of the Senior Bowl and I was not impressed.

He seemed to struggle a bit against the jam during the game. He had a hard time getting off the line and when he did he couldn't get seperation.

Hope this clears things up!

Tex

 
Based off a video of D'Onta Foreman training, I estimate his 40-yard dash time at 4.46-4.49.

 
Xue said:
Based off a video of D'Onta Foreman training, I estimate his 40-yard dash time at 4.46-4.49.
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Lol, watching YouTube with a stopwatch or can you really estimate 40 times within .03 seconds? If he runs a 4.51 im really going to let you hear about it?

 
petekrum said:
If he runs in the 4.4's at his size he's gonna be moving up draft boards.
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Depends on how well he moves laterally.  I was just going to ask Xue his thoughts on him in that regard, he had a much better read on Derrick Henry than I did.  If he's a one cut and get a head of steam guy that speed is nice, but the real juicy ones are those that can move around and get to speed quickly ala Cook and Mixon.

 
Snorkelson said:
Lol, watching YouTube with a stopwatch or can you really estimate 40 times within .03 seconds? If he runs a 4.51 im really going to let you hear about it?
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No stopwatch. Many people think he'll run over 4.6. He'll hit under 4.5 if everything goes right. 4.51 would still be a great time if he's 230-240 lbs. 

 
Heading into the combine, here are the rankings that my formulas are giving.

RB
Dalvin Cook    FSU
Joe Mixon    Oklahoma
    
Samaje Perine    Oklahoma
Leonard Fournette    LSU
    
Christian McCaffrey    Stanford
Curtis Samuel    Ohio State
    
Elijah Hood    N Carolina
James Conner    Pittsburgh
Jeremy McNichols    Boise St
Wayne Gallman    Clemson
Kareem Hunt    Toledo
D’Onta Foreman    Texas
Elijah McGuire    La-Lafytte
 

TE
Evan Engram    Mississippi

David Njoku    Miami FL

Jordan Leggett    Clemson
O.J. Howard    Alabama
Darrell Daniels    Washington

Gerald Everett    South Alabama

Cole Hikutini    Louisville

Bucky Hodges    Virginia Tech
Jeremy Sprinkle    Arkansas
Blake Jarwin    Oklahoma State
Jake Butt    Michigan
 

WR
Taywan Taylor    Western Ky
Corey Davis    W Mich
JuJu Smith-Schuster    USC
    
Dede Westbrook    Oklahoma
Jalen Robinette    Air Force
Amba Etta-Tawo    Syracuse
Josh Malone    Tennessee
Shelton Gibson    WVU
    
Curtis Samuel    Ohio State
Carlos Henderson    La Tech
Josh Reynolds    Texas A&M
Keevan Lucas    Tulsa
Cooper Kupp    EWU
Chad Hansen    California
Tanner Gentry    Wyoming
ArDarius Stewart    Alabama
KD Cannon    Baylor
    
Kenny Golladay    N Illinois
DeAngelo Yancey    Purdue
Austin Carr    N'western
John Ross    Washington
Chris Godwin    Penn State
Nicholas Norris    Western Ky
Mike Williams    Clemson
 

I have included weighin numbers from the Senior Bowl and similar events. I'm still waiting on the combine for accurate athleticism info (and size info for many players), and there are various stats (like drop rate from PFF) which I don't have for most players. Here's the drop rate numbers that I do have:
Travin Dural    0.0%
Taywan Taylor    2.0%
Dede Westbrook    4.8%
Zay Jones    5.0%
O.J. Howard    5.7%
Mike Williams    5.8%
2015 WR AVERAGE    7.5%
Corey Davis    10.2%
Leonard Fournette    16.7%

 
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ZWK said:
Corey Davis    10.2%
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This is where (an example of) context matters.  Is this reason to be concerned or is it a combination of his qb, focus from the defense, and types of catches he's asked to make?  (Or other)

 
-OZ- said:
ZWK said:
Corey Davis    10.2%
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This is where (an example of) context matters.  Is this reason to be concerned or is it a combination of his qb, focus from the defense, and types of catches he's asked to make?  (Or other)
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The number comes from PFF, who says that his drops were "mainly due to concentration lapses on easy catches."

 
ZWK said:
Heading into the combine, here are the rankings that my formulas are giving.

I have included weighin numbers from the Senior Bowl and similar events. I'm still waiting on the combine for accurate athleticism info (and size info for many players), and there are various stats (like drop rate from PFF) which I don't have for most players. Here's the drop rate numbers that I do have:
Travin Dural    0.0%
Taywan Taylor    2.0%
Dede Westbrook    4.8%
Zay Jones    5.0%
O.J. Howard    5.7%
Mike Williams    5.8%
2015 WR AVERAGE    7.5%
Corey Davis    10.2%
Leonard Fournette    16.7%
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Is Ishmael Zamora in your calculations? If not could you add him?

Not surprised to see Taywan Taylor in the top group. He's top 5 for me.

 
lod001 said:
Is Ishmael Zamora in your calculations? If not could you add him?

Not surprised to see Taywan Taylor in the top group. He's top 5 for me.
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Zamora is in there. His receiving production was below average (the biggest negative is only 7.5 yards per target), which is a dealbreaker in my WR rating formula.

 
ZWK said:
TE
Evan Engram    Mississippi

David Njoku    Miami FL

Jordan Leggett    Clemson
O.J. Howard    Alabama
Darrell Daniels    Washington

Gerald Everett    South Alabama

Cole Hikutini    Louisville

Bucky Hodges    Virginia Tech
Jeremy Sprinkle    Arkansas
Blake Jarwin    Oklahoma State
Jake Butt    Michigan
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Hodges seems low, especially to have in him in your 5th tier.

FWIW, as of a couple months ago, Kiper had him as either his #1 or #2 TE and at #21 overall. As of today, NFL.com has him with its 4th highest grade among TEs, and Sports Illustrated has him 5th.

Hodges was recruited out of high school as a QB, one of the highest ranked dual threat QBs in the nation. He redshirted since Logan Thomas was the incumbent. Then he moved to TE for two seasons. Then he played H-back and WR this past season. In his career at Virginia Tech, he scored 1 rushing TD and 1 punt return TD to go along with his 20 receiving TDs. All of this shows a lot of versatility and athleticism.

Perhaps more importantly, he has only played TE for 2 years. Given he is only 21 years old, it seems reasonable to think he is not yet a finished product. If you considered him as a TE for all 3 of his seasons, he would rank #4 in ACC history in TE receptions and tied for #1 in TDs with Heath Miller.

Can you expand on why you don't like him as much as those above him?

 
Just Win Baby said:
Hodges seems low, especially to have in him in your 5th tier.

FWIW, as of a couple months ago, Kiper had him as either his #1 or #2 TE and at #21 overall. As of today, NFL.com has him with its 4th highest grade among TEs, and Sports Illustrated has him 5th.

Hodges was recruited out of high school as a QB, one of the highest ranked dual threat QBs in the nation. He redshirted since Logan Thomas was the incumbent. Then he moved to TE for two seasons. Then he played H-back and WR this past season. In his career at Virginia Tech, he scored 1 rushing TD and 1 punt return TD to go along with his 20 receiving TDs. All of this shows a lot of versatility and athleticism.

Perhaps more importantly, he has only played TE for 2 years. Given he is only 21 years old, it seems reasonable to think he is not yet a finished product. If you considered him as a TE for all 3 of his seasons, he would rank #4 in ACC history in TE receptions and tied for #1 in TDs with Heath Miller.

Can you expand on why you don't like him as much as those above him?
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nfldraftscout has Hodges projected to run a 4.78 40, which is slower than all of the guys ahead of him except Hikutini (things might look very different after have their actual combine workout numbers). He had 8.5 yards per target in his most productive season (2016), which is at least a full yard worse than all of the guys ahead of him. He had 49.4 yards per game, which is worse than all of the guys ahead of him except for Daniels. My TE ratings currently don't adjust for things like age or non-receiving production; they probably should.

 
ZWK said:
nfldraftscout has Hodges projected to run a 4.78 40, which is slower than all of the guys ahead of him except Hikutini (things might look very different after have their actual combine workout numbers). He had 8.5 yards per target in his most productive season (2016), which is at least a full yard worse than all of the guys ahead of him. He had 49.4 yards per game, which is worse than all of the guys ahead of him except for Daniels. My TE ratings currently don't adjust for things like age or non-receiving production; they probably should.
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Do your rankings adjust for quality of QB, nature of offense, surrounding cast, etc.? I assume quite a few of the guys you rank ahead of him had better situations, which affects stats like YPT and YPG.

On the bolded, a few things. WalterFootball projects he will run a 4.67 40. Not necessarily a credible source, but he reportedly ran a 4.46 40-yard dash and had a vertical jump of 38.5 inches while at Virginia Tech. He is also 6'7" 245 lbs, which is bigger than some of the others, making his speed more impressive and/or less important.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Do your rankings adjust for quality of QB, nature of offense, surrounding cast, etc.? I assume quite a few of the guys you rank ahead of him had better situations, which affects stats like YPT and YPG.

On the bolded, a few things. WalterFootball projects he will run a 4.67 40. Not necessarily a credible source, but he reportedly ran a 4.46 40-yard dash and had a vertical jump of 38.5 inches while at Virginia Tech. He is also 6'7" 245 lbs, which is bigger than some of the others, making his speed more impressive and/or less important.
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My TE stats are less sophisticated than my WR stats, and don't adjust for those sorts of things. I think that TE production is more influenced by context than WR production, so even if I used the kinds of adjustments that I do with WRs the TE stats would still be less predictive of NFL success than the WR stats are. I do generally put less stock in my TE ratings formulas than in my WR ratings formulas.

I have Hodges at 6'6", 245 lbs, which helps his rating. I haven't bothered to sort out the various sources of info on projected workout numbers, since I don't have any decisions to make before the combine. 40 times do make a huge difference - if I had Hodges at 4.46 then he'd be my TE3, slightly behind Njoku.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Do your rankings adjust for quality of QB, nature of offense, surrounding cast, etc.? I assume quite a few of the guys you rank ahead of him had better situations, which affects stats like YPT and YPG.

On the bolded, a few things. WalterFootball projects he will run a 4.67 40. Not necessarily a credible source, but he reportedly ran a 4.46 40-yard dash and had a vertical jump of 38.5 inches while at Virginia Tech. He is also 6'7" 245 lbs, which is bigger than some of the others, making his speed more impressive and/or less important.
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shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh they may be listening.

 
RB touches per fumble, for this year's draft class (with comparisons to the 2016 and 2015 classes):

35.4    Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska    2015
39.9    Kenyan Drake, Alabama    2016
43.3    Alex Collins, Arkansas    2016
44.0    Daniel Lasco, California    2016
45.6    C.J. Prosise, Notre Dame    2016
51.1    DeAngelo Henderson, Coastal Carolina    2017
52.2    Marcus Cox, Appalachian State    2017
52.2    Kenny Hilliard, LSU    2015
54.3    Marlon Mack, South Florida    2017
54.4    Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin    2015
56.3    Justin Davis, USC    2017
57.7    Boom Williams, Kentucky    2017
61.2    Josh Ferguson, Illinois    2016
61.6    Wendell Smallwood, West Virginia    2016
62.2    T.J. Yeldon, Alabama    2015
62.6    Jay Ajayi, Boise State    2015
63.2    Matt Jones, Florida    2015
63.5    Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech    2016
63.8    Tre Madden, USC    2016
63.8    Dalvin Cook, Florida State    2017
65.4    Taquan Mizzell, Virginia    2017
69.8    Curtis Samuel, Ohio State    2017
71.0    Alvin Kamara, Tennessee    2017
71.1    Devontae Booker, Utah    2016
72.0    Jonathan Williams, Arkansas    2016
72.3    Tevin Coleman, Indiana    2015
73.0    Joe Mixon, Oklahoma    2017
74.3    D'Onta Foreman, Texas    2017
74.5    David Cobb, Minnesota    2015
74.9    Jeremy McNichols, Boise State    2017
77.5    David Johnson, Northern Iowa    2015
78.5    Elijah Hood, North Carolina    2017
79.0    T.J. Logan, North Carolina    2017
80.0    Javorius Allen, USC    2015
81.0    Aaron Jones, UTEP    2017
82.1    Leonard Fournette, LSU    2017
85.0    Duke Johnson, Miami    2015
86.4    Corey Clement, Wisconsin    2017
87.3    Mike Davis, South Carolina    2015
91.5    Josh Robinson, Mississippi State    2015
92.7    Karlos Williams, Florida State    2015
96.6    Tarik Cohen, North Carolina A&T    2017
99.7    James Conner, Pittsburgh    2017
104.1    DeAndre Washington, Texas Tech    2016
109.6    Devine Redding, Indiana    2017
111.8    Jordan Howard, Indiana    2016
115.9    Donnel Pumphrey, San Diego State    2017
120.8    Samaje Perine, Oklahoma    2017
123.0    Tyler Ervin, San Jose State    2016
123.2    Jeremy Langford, Michigan State    2015
123.8    Derrick Henry, Alabama    2016
124.7    Tarean Folston, Notre Dame    2017
125.0    Terrence Magee, LSU    2015
128.8    Tra Carson, Texas A&M    2016
129.6    Matthew Dayes, N.C. State    2017
134.4    Zach Zenner, South Dakota State    2015
136.0    Brian Hill, Wyoming    2017
136.0    Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn    2015
138.5    Keith Marshall, Georgia    2016
140.4    Paul Perkins, UCLA    2016
148.2    Wayne Gallman, Clemson    2017
156.3    Dominique Brown, Louisville    2015
157.2    Jamaal Williams, BYU    2017
162.5    Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State    2016
168.0    Elijah McGuire, Louisiana-Lafayette    2017
169.7    Aaron Green, TCU    2016
191.7    Todd Gurley, Georgia    2015
243.7    Christian McCaffrey, Stanford    2017
266.5    De'Veon Smith, Michigan    2017
434.0    Joseph Yearby, Miami (Fla.)    2017
619.0    Malcolm Brown, Texas     2015
856.0    Kareem Hunt, Toledo    2017
infinite    Kelvin Taylor, Florida (no fumbles in college)     2016

Seems like fumbles aren't a major concern for any of this year's top prospects, though they are a slight negative for all the guys in the 60-90 range.

 
Here are the most productive draft-entering college QBs, mostly based on 2016 stats and giving some weight to 2015 stats.

Nathan Peterman    Pittsburgh    SR
Chad Kelly    Miss    SR
Deshaun Watson    Clemson    JR
 
Patrick Mahomes II    Texas Tech    JR
Seth Russell    Baylor    SR
Jerod Evans    Va Tech    JR
 
DeShone Kizer    Notre Dame    JR
Mitch Trubisky    N Carolina    JR
Zach Terrell    W Mich    SR
Ryan Higgins    La Tech    SR

Scouting matters a lot for QBs; basically these are the 10 guys who I might wind up being on board with if NFL teams like them (and it's something of a stretch for the last 4). These numbers only reflect box score stats; I currently don't have data on arm strength or accuracy for different types of throws (which I have often been able to get my hands on in recent years).

 
ConstruxBoy said:
Watching a lot of Godwin the last several years his ceiling comp for me is Anquan Boldin. I think they share a number of similar traits (not overly dynamic, strong, driven, very good run blockers, solid route runners). Boldin had to work hard because he was transitioning from QB to WR. That allowed him to become a great NFL WR. I think if Godwin keeps working very hard, he can come close to reaching Boldin's heights.
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Bump

 
ZWK said:
Just Win Baby said:
Hodges seems low, especially to have in him in your 5th tier.

FWIW, as of a couple months ago, Kiper had him as either his #1 or #2 TE and at #21 overall. As of today, NFL.com has him with its 4th highest grade among TEs, and Sports Illustrated has him 5th.

Hodges was recruited out of high school as a QB, one of the highest ranked dual threat QBs in the nation. He redshirted since Logan Thomas was the incumbent. Then he moved to TE for two seasons. Then he played H-back and WR this past season. In his career at Virginia Tech, he scored 1 rushing TD and 1 punt return TD to go along with his 20 receiving TDs. All of this shows a lot of versatility and athleticism.

Perhaps more importantly, he has only played TE for 2 years. Given he is only 21 years old, it seems reasonable to think he is not yet a finished product. If you considered him as a TE for all 3 of his seasons, he would rank #4 in ACC history in TE receptions and tied for #1 in TDs with Heath Miller.

Can you expand on why you don't like him as much as those above him?
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nfldraftscout has Hodges projected to run a 4.78 40, which is slower than all of the guys ahead of him except Hikutini (things might look very different after have their actual combine workout numbers). He had 8.5 yards per target in his most productive season (2016), which is at least a full yard worse than all of the guys ahead of him. He had 49.4 yards per game, which is worse than all of the guys ahead of him except for Daniels. My TE ratings currently don't adjust for things like age or non-receiving production; they probably should.
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From Virginia Tech’s Bucky Hodges could be the right tight end for the Packers:

But perhaps no one tight end did more to boost his stock this week than Bucky Hodges of Virginia Tech.

Hodges, who was a consistent producer in three years for the Hokies, had a tremendous all-around workout, measuring in at 6 feet, 6 inches and 257 pounds, running the 40 in 4.57 seconds, and posting position-best numbers in the vertical (39 inches) and broad jumps (11 feet, 2 inches).

...

Still, Hodges carries his experience playing quarterback through as he continues to develop as a receiver. Hodges says he knows what his quarterback is thinking: “I know what he wants, how he wants certain routes.” He also uses skills in diagnosing defenses to help him get open, noting that “I read a lot of coverages in high school so reading coverages were very easy for me in college.”

He’s certainly more polished as a receiver than an in-line blocker. In fact, he said he ended up playing almost exclusively a receiver role in his final college season when the Hokies installed a new offense. “I can run any route, I’m comfortable with the entire route tree,” Hodges said.

Still, NFL teams will likely expect him to play in-line eventually, even if he starts out as a large receiving option in the slot. While the effort level will not be a question mark for Hodges — “I’m not scared to put my helmet in anybody’s face,” he says — an NFL team will need to teach him the finer points of blocking. “Blocking from a three-point stance (is) something I haven’t really worked on since my freshman year of college,” Hodges pointed out. “I’m still raw fundamental-wise and technique-wise, but I know I’m capable of it with my work ethic and I’m very confident I will be a good blocker.”
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4.57 at 257 is pretty ridiculous, and the jumps show a lot of explosiveness. He also has 10 1/8" hands and a 78 inch wingspan, both of which should be near the top of this class. He is a top tier TE in this class IMO, and stands a very good chance of being drafted in the first round.

 
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I like Hodges and already own him in one devy league where I took him a couple years ago, but honestly I'd rank Engram higher. Engram is not as big, but he's really explosive and quick in his routes. Has better separation skills than Hodges, who is more of a pure vertical threat. Engram is a more athletic version of Jordan Reed and is truly a WR playing TE. He's going to be a Hernandez/Reed type of producer in the NFL and is one of the top FF prospects in this draft.

 
ZWK said:
Heading into the combine, here are the rankings that my formulas are giving.

RB
Dalvin Cook    FSU
Joe Mixon    Oklahoma
    
Samaje Perine    Oklahoma
Leonard Fournette    LSU
    
Christian McCaffrey    Stanford
Curtis Samuel    Ohio State
    
Elijah Hood    N Carolina
James Conner    Pittsburgh
Jeremy McNichols    Boise St
Wayne Gallman    Clemson
Kareem Hunt    Toledo
D’Onta Foreman    Texas
Elijah McGuire    La-Lafytte
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Post-combine RB update:

Joe Mixon    Oklahoma
Curtis Samuel    Ohio State
Dalvin Cook    FSU

Christian McCaffrey    Stanford

Jeremy McNichols    Boise St
Samaje Perine    Oklahoma
Elijah Hood    N Carolina
Alvin Kamara    Tennessee
Aaron Jones    UTEP
Kareem Hunt    Toledo
Leonard Fournette    LSU

Joe Williams    Utah
James Conner    Pittsburgh
D’Onta Foreman    Texas
 

Moving up: Samuel, McCaffrey, McNichols, Kamara, Aaron Jones, and Joe Williams. Moving down: Fournette, Conner, Gallman.

Since 2000, the best RBs whose vertical was 30" or less are Jeremy Hill (29"), Justin Forsett (26.5"), and Matt Asiata (30"). Hill and Rueben Droughns are the only RBs who were drafted in the first 150 picks with a vertical of 30" or worse. Leonard Fournette jumped 28.5", James Conner 29.0", and Wayne Gallman 29.5".

 
ZWK said:
Post-combine RB update:

Joe Mixon    Oklahoma
Curtis Samuel    Ohio State
Dalvin Cook    FSU

Christian McCaffrey    Stanford

Jeremy McNichols    Boise St
Samaje Perine    Oklahoma
Elijah Hood    N Carolina
Alvin Kamara    Tennessee
Aaron Jones    UTEP
Kareem Hunt    Toledo
Leonard Fournette    LSU

Joe Williams    Utah
James Conner    Pittsburgh
D’Onta Foreman    Texas
 

Moving up: Samuel, McCaffrey, McNichols, Kamara, Aaron Jones, and Joe Williams. Moving down: Fournette, Conner, Gallman.

Since 2000, the best RBs whose vertical was 30" or less are Jeremy Hill (29"), Justin Forsett (26.5"), and Matt Asiata (30"). Hill and Rueben Droughns are the only RBs who were drafted in the first 150 picks with a vertical of 30" or worse. Leonard Fournette jumped 28.5", James Conner 29.0", and Wayne Gallman 29.5".
Click to expand...
Good stuff. The part that doesn't fit is that those 3 guys you mentioned that were less than 30" also ran over a 4.6 in the 40. Fournette was much faster than them. Those things seem to be at odds. I am torn on Fournette. 

 
Yea, that is an extremely poor vertical. I'm struggling to think of relatively fast RBs who jumped that poorly. Rashard Mendehall ran a 4.45 at 5'10" 225, but only did 33.5" in the vertical and 9'9" in the broad jump. Zeke last year was pretty similar with a 4.47 40, yet only a 32.5" vertical and 9'10" broad jump. Those are really poor marks for a fast guy with a pretty decent track background. Devonta Freeman ran 4.51 and jumped 31.5". LeVeon Bell was 4.56 and 31.5". LeSean McCoy was 4.50 and 29" at his pro day.

Obviously a great vertical isn't necessary for NFL success, but you'd expect Fournette (or anyone really) to jump higher.

 
@ZWK, how does Mixon stay on top when he hasn't done anything?  Is it projection of good numbers or just based on production in college as the only info. you have on him?

As for Connor and Gallman, they both looked pretty good in drills to me so I actually have both of them as moving up, not moving down.  Is it the vert that made those 2 drop heavily or other factors?

 
@Zyphros Mixon didn't do anything so his rating stayed in the same place; Cook did slightly worse than expectations (his vertical was 30.5") and moved down. Connor & Gallman's numbers were worse than average (especially in the vertical, also the 40 as well as Connor's broad jump), and all I look at are the numbers.

In my formula the 40 gets twice as much weight as the jumps. Fournette's jump rating is based entirely on his vertical (since he didn't do the broad jump) and his 40 was close to average (and slightly worse than expected) so the change to his rating is based mostly on his bad vertical. If he'd jumped 4 inches higher he would still be in the same tier, right behind McNichols; if he does it at his pro day it'll boost him somewhat less than that.

 
ZWK said:
Heading into the combine, here are the rankings that my formulas are giving.

WR

Taywan Taylor    Western Ky
Corey Davis    W Mich
JuJu Smith-Schuster    USC
    
Dede Westbrook    Oklahoma
Jalen Robinette    Air Force
Amba Etta-Tawo    Syracuse
Josh Malone    Tennessee
Shelton Gibson    WVU
    
Curtis Samuel    Ohio State
Carlos Henderson    La Tech
Josh Reynolds    Texas A&M
Keevan Lucas    Tulsa
Cooper Kupp    EWU
Chad Hansen    California
Tanner Gentry    Wyoming
ArDarius Stewart    Alabama
KD Cannon    Baylor
    
Kenny Golladay    N Illinois
DeAngelo Yancey    Purdue
Austin Carr    N'western
John Ross    Washington
Chris Godwin    Penn State
Nicholas Norris    Western Ky
Mike Williams    Clemson
Click to expand...
Post-combine WR update:

Taywan Taylor    Western Ky
Amba Etta-Tawo    Syracuse
Corey Davis    W Mich
Josh Malone    Tennessee
JuJu Smith-Schuster    USC

Curtis Samuel    Ohio State
Carlos Henderson    La Tech
Dede Westbrook    Oklahoma
Jalen Robinette    Air Force

ArDarius Stewart    Alabama
Chad Hansen    California
Shelton Gibson    WVU
John Ross    Washington
Kenny Golladay    N Illinois
Josh Reynolds    Texas A&M
Keevan Lucas    Tulsa
Tanner Gentry    Wyoming

KD Cannon    Baylor
Evan Engram    Miss
Cooper Kupp    EWU
Chris Godwin    Penn State
DeAngelo Yancey    Purdue
Austin Carr    N'western
Mike Williams    Clemson
Nicholas Norris    Western Ky
Zay Jones    ECU

The top 9 WRs are basically getting a thumbs up from my formula. Moving up: Amba Etta-Tawo, Josh Malone, Curtis Samuel, Carlos Henderson, John Ross, Kenny Golladay, and Evan Engram. Moving down: Shelton Gibson and Cooper Kupp.

 
ZWK said:
Heading into the combine, here are the rankings that my formulas are giving.

TE
Evan Engram    Mississippi

David Njoku    Miami FL

Jordan Leggett    Clemson
O.J. Howard    Alabama
Darrell Daniels    Washington

Gerald Everett    South Alabama

Cole Hikutini    Louisville

Bucky Hodges    Virginia Tech
Jeremy Sprinkle    Arkansas
Blake Jarwin    Oklahoma State
Jake Butt    Michigan
Click to expand...
Post-combine TE rankings:

Evan Engram    Mississippi

George Kittle    Iowa
Bucky Hodges    Virginia Tech
David Njoku    Miami FL
Jonnu Smith    Florida Int
Gerald Everett    South Alabama
Pharaoh Brown    Oregon
O.J. Howard    Alabama

Jordan Leggett    Clemson

Michael Roberts    Toledo
Darrell Daniels    Washington
Cole Hikutini    Louisville
Adam Shaheen    Ashland
Eric Saubert    Drake
Jeremy Sprinkle    Arkansas
Jake Butt    Michigan
Blake Jarwin    Oklahoma State
 

After his 4.42 40, my numbers have Evan Engram as the second-best TE prospect of the past 12 years, behind only Vernon Davis. Kittle, Hodges, and Howard also all ran sub 4.6, making this an extremely athletic TE class. Other than Pharaoh Brown, everyone from Howard up had very strong combine numbers along with a solid or better resume of college production. (Brown I think is a bit of a fluke of my formula, which is crediting him too much for his high YPT on a small sample size in 2014.)

 
Top 30 TE prospects since 2006, by my formula:

Name           Draft Class     School
Vernon Davis    2006    Maryland
Evan Engram    2017    Mississippi
Ladarius Green    2012    La Lafayette
Coby Fleener    2012    Stanford
Dustin Keller    2008    Purdue
Rob Gronkowski    2010    Arizona
Jermaine Gresham    2010    Oklahoma
George Kittle    2017    Iowa
Jace Amaro    2014    Texas Tech
MyCole Pruitt    2015    Southern Illinois
Rob Housler    2011    Florida Atlantic
Bucky Hodges    2017    Virginia Tech
David Njoku    2017    Miami FL
Tyler Higbee    2016    Western Kentucky
Adrien Robinson    2012    Cincinnati
Jonnu Smith    2017    Florida Int
Dennis Pitta    2010    BYU
Michael Egnew    2012    Missouri
Gerald Everett    2017    South Alabama
Jared Cook    2009    South Carolina
Thomas Duarte    2016    UCLA
Ben Braunecker    2016    Harvard
Tony Scheffler    2006    Western Michigan
Pharaoh Brown    2017    Oregon
Luke Willson    2013    Rice
Eric Ebron    2014    North Carolina
O.J. Howard    2017    Alabama
Lance Kendricks    2011    Wisconsin
Travis Kelce    2013    Cincinnati
Clive Walford    2015    Miami Fl

 
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