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ZWK's 2017 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ZWK
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ZWK
Footballguy
Ignoring this year's class, Walker is 23rd, Olsen 30th, and Graham 32nd. That seems pretty good on Walker (who was a 6th rounder) and Graham (who had 17 total receptions in college), though not so much on Olsen who was a pedigreed top TE prospect. Bennett and Reed both rated below average - they are misses for my formula. The TE formula is less accurate than the RB or WR formula, as I've mentioned elsewhere, but I do think that it adds some info.
I included him in my WR update - he's WR19, between KD Cannon and Cooper Kupp. That makes him a decent prospect as a WR, which is impressive for a TE, though not nearly as impressive as Vernon Davis who rated as the top WR prospect of his draft class (with a pretty solid gap on Brandon Marshall).
ZWK
Footballguy
Post-combine pass rusher update:
Myles Garrett Texas A&M
Jordan Willis Kansas St
Takkarist McKinley UCLA
T.J. Watt Wisconsin
Haason Reddick Temple
Taco Charlton Michigan
Solomon Thomas Stanford
Carroll Phillips Illinois
DeMarcus Walker FSU
Hunter Dimick Utah
Tyus Bowser Houston
Trey Hendrickson FAU
Derek Barnett Tennessee
Carl Lawson Auburn
Ifeadi Odenigbo N'western
Devonte Fields Louisville
Tarell Basham Ohio
Tim Williams Alabama
Strong combine performances from Myles Garrett, Jordan Willis, Solomon Thomas, T.J. Watt, Haason Reddick, Tyus Bowser, Trey Hendrickson, and Carl Lawson (in that order). Jordan Willis weighed in at 6'3.8" 255 lb., he ran a 4.53 40, and if he'd been competing against the RBs he would've finished 2nd in the vertical and 3rd in the 3-cone drill. Garrett and Willis also have the production to go along with that athleticism, which puts them a tier ahead of the rest. Hunter Dimick didn't get a combine invite but is still sitting in that second tier.
ZWK
Footballguy
From Jared Tokarz @NFLDraftInsider
Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State 59
Colin Kaepernick, Nevada 59
Paxton Lynch, Memphis 59
Jared Goff, California 58
Ryan Mallett, Arkansas 58
Mark Sanchez, Southern Cal 57
Josh Freeman, Kansas State 57
Nick Foles, Arizona 57
Sean Mannion, Oregon State 57
Carson Wentz, North Dakota State 57
Andy Dalton, TCU 56
Cam Newton, Auburn 56
Blake Bortles, Central Florida 56
Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois 56
Colt McCoy, Texas (private workout) 56
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State 56
Marcus Mariota, Oregon 56
Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State 56
Jameis Winston, Florida State 55
Joe Flacco, Delaware 55
Geno Smith, West Virginia 55
Kevin O’Connell, San Diego St 55
Russell Wilson, Wisconsin 55
Cody Kessler, Southern Cal 55
EJ Manuel, Florida State 54
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State 54
Jake Locker, Washington 54
Brian Brohm, Louisville 53
Chad Henne, Michigan 53
Pat White, West Virginia 52
Christian Ponder, Florida St 51
Connor Cook, Michigan State 50
Michael Glennon, North Carolina State 49
That's a flag for Deshaun Watson, and a slight concern for Kaaya & Peterman (as I've posted about in previous years). For comparison:
Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State 59
Colin Kaepernick, Nevada 59
Paxton Lynch, Memphis 59
Jared Goff, California 58
Ryan Mallett, Arkansas 58
Mark Sanchez, Southern Cal 57
Josh Freeman, Kansas State 57
Nick Foles, Arizona 57
Sean Mannion, Oregon State 57
Carson Wentz, North Dakota State 57
Andy Dalton, TCU 56
Cam Newton, Auburn 56
Blake Bortles, Central Florida 56
Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois 56
Colt McCoy, Texas (private workout) 56
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State 56
Marcus Mariota, Oregon 56
Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State 56
Jameis Winston, Florida State 55
Joe Flacco, Delaware 55
Geno Smith, West Virginia 55
Kevin O’Connell, San Diego St 55
Russell Wilson, Wisconsin 55
Cody Kessler, Southern Cal 55
EJ Manuel, Florida State 54
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State 54
Jake Locker, Washington 54
Brian Brohm, Louisville 53
Chad Henne, Michigan 53
Pat White, West Virginia 52
Christian Ponder, Florida St 51
Connor Cook, Michigan State 50
Michael Glennon, North Carolina State 49
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
And was way better than Glennon. Numbers don't add up and I don't give it much weight.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Stafford (and several other current starters such as Luck, Ryan, Tannehill, and Bradford) didn't throw at the combine.
Here's the historical source data if you're interested: http://blogs.ourlads.com/2016/03/02/quarterback-ball-velocity-at-nfl-combine-2008-2015/ (it's actually updated for 2016 and I suspect will be for 2017 soon). What I've read over the past few years is consistent with what ZWK says in his linked posts: ball velocity seems to be more a pass/fail element than a linear one. There's no real advantage to throwing 60mph vs. 57, but if you can't generally get the ball out at 55+ your chances of being a long-term NFL starting QB go way down.
I only wish they'd thought to set this drill up 20 years earlier so we could have seen historical numbers on guys like Favre and Cunningham.
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So this may be a dumb question, but is ball velocity at the combine just being measured on their throws while doing all these drills? Or do they literally have an, "ok, now step up and let er rip because we're measuring ball velocity on this" drill? If not the latter, it seems there's a chance a QB is just being conservative when throwing during the drills, no?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Seems like it's gotta be the former, otherwise the results just don't make sense. Colt McCoy with better ball velocity than Joe Flacco?
ZWK
Footballguy
Matt Harmon has started posting articles at The Fantasy Footballers with his Reception Perception analyses of this year's draft class. My favorite one of his metrics is success rate, which is just how often the receiver succeeded at getting open - on what fraction of his routes did he get open, broken down by route type (out, nine, comeback, etc.) or by coverage (zone, man, press). I have combined these breakdowns into a single adjusted success rate number.
So far he has posted articles on 7 WRs. Carlos Henderson's numbers are excellent, Chris Godwin's are good, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross are solid, and JuJu Smith-Schuster & Cooper Kupp are below average.
Here are how they stack up to last year's draft class:
84.5% Carlos Henderson
81.4% Sterling Shepard
79.5% Josh Doctson
77.3% Rashard Higgins
77.1% Chris Godwin
75.6% Corey Coleman
74.3% Laquon Treadwell
74.2% Michael Thomas
74.0% Corey Davis
73.9% Mike Williams
73.5% Malcolm Mitchell
73.5% John Ross
72.9% Mike Thomas
69.9% Leonte Carroo
69.6% Kenny Lawler
(69.2% 2016 average)
69.1% Keyarris Garrett
67.4% Will Fuller
67.2% JuJu Smith-Schuster
67.0% Braxton Miller
67.0% Demarcus Robinson
65.4% Cooper Kupp
65.4% Tajae Sharpe
62.6% Pharoh Cooper
62.3% De'Runnya Wilson
62.0% Roger Lewis
61.1% Charone Peake
59.7% Aaron Burbidge
58.7% Tyler Boyd
This basically means that Corey Davis got open on 74% of the routes that he ran, after adjusting for the type of coverage (it's easier to get open against zone than against press coverage) and the type of route (it's easier to get open on a flat route than a nine), but not for opponent (even though it's easier to get open against Kent State than against Wisconsin).
So far he has posted articles on 7 WRs. Carlos Henderson's numbers are excellent, Chris Godwin's are good, Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross are solid, and JuJu Smith-Schuster & Cooper Kupp are below average.
Here are how they stack up to last year's draft class:
84.5% Carlos Henderson
81.4% Sterling Shepard
79.5% Josh Doctson
77.3% Rashard Higgins
77.1% Chris Godwin
75.6% Corey Coleman
74.3% Laquon Treadwell
74.2% Michael Thomas
74.0% Corey Davis
73.9% Mike Williams
73.5% Malcolm Mitchell
73.5% John Ross
72.9% Mike Thomas
69.9% Leonte Carroo
69.6% Kenny Lawler
(69.2% 2016 average)
69.1% Keyarris Garrett
67.4% Will Fuller
67.2% JuJu Smith-Schuster
67.0% Braxton Miller
67.0% Demarcus Robinson
65.4% Cooper Kupp
65.4% Tajae Sharpe
62.6% Pharoh Cooper
62.3% De'Runnya Wilson
62.0% Roger Lewis
61.1% Charone Peake
59.7% Aaron Burbidge
58.7% Tyler Boyd
This basically means that Corey Davis got open on 74% of the routes that he ran, after adjusting for the type of coverage (it's easier to get open against zone than against press coverage) and the type of route (it's easier to get open on a flat route than a nine), but not for opponent (even though it's easier to get open against Kent State than against Wisconsin).
ZWK
Footballguy
Akron's Jerome Lane is the next guy after Zay Jones. His production is above average but below the threshold that I usually look for; solid YPT (10.4) but not many TDs. (I just added Lane's birthdate which helps him a little; the gap was wider before I credited him for being a year younger than the average prospect.)
Georgia State's Robert Davis had below average production for a college WR1, which it is impossible to make up for in my system. So, despite his huge combine, he doesn't rank anywhere close. I guess that elite athletes like him make for decent fliers, even though my numbers don't like them, although guys like Chris Conley and Marquise Goodwin haven't done much in the NFL.
ZWK
Footballguy
Here is how my formula currently rates this year's RB class, in comparison to my pre-draft ratings for the 4 previous draft classes:
Eddie Lacy 2013
Todd Gurley 2015
Melvin Gordon 2015
Christine Michael 2013
Carlos Hyde 2014
Ezekiel Elliott 2016
Joe Mixon 2017
Lache Seastrunk 2014
Jay Ajayi 2015
Curtis Samuel 2017
Tre Mason 2014
Giovani Bernard 2013
Ameer Abdullah 2015
Knile Davis 2013
Derrick Henry 2016
Darius Jackson 2016
Dalvin Cook 2017
Christian McCaffrey 2017
Jeremy Hill 2014
C.J. Prosise 2016
Jerick McKinnon 2014
Kenneth Dixon 2016
Jonathan Franklin 2013
Tevin Coleman 2015
Jordan Howard 2016
Duke Johnson 2015
Bishop Sankey 2014
Alvin Kamara 2017
DeAndre Washington 2016
Samaje Perine 2017
David Johnson 2015
Marcus Lattimore 2013
Jeremy McNichols 2017
Jhurell Pressley 2016
Stephen Houston 2014
Daniel Lasco 2016
Henry Josey 2014
Zac Stacy 2013
D.J. Harper 2013
Le'Veon Bell 2013
Kareem Hunt 2017
Cierre Wood 2013
Aaron Jones 2017
Kenjon Barner 2013
Paul Perkins 2016
Montee Ball 2013
Latavius Murray 2013
Elijah Hood 2017
Isaiah Crowell 2014
Andre Williams 2014
Charles Sims 2014
Joe Williams 2017
Dri Archer 2014
Alex Collins 2016
Marlon Mack 2017
Leonard Fournette 2017
Devonta Freeman 2014
David Cobb 2015
Devontae Booker 2016
James Conner 2017
T.J. Yeldon 2015
Cameron Artis-Payne 2015
Karlos Williams 2015
Josh Robinson 2015
Corey Grant 2015
D’Onta Foreman 2017
Kenyan Drake 2016
David Fluellen 2014
Treavor Scales 2013
Elijah McGuire 2017
Brian Hill 2017
Jeremy Langford 2015
Michael Ford 2013
Jamaal Williams 2017
Robert Godhigh 2014
Matthew Tucker 2013
Mike Davis 2015
George Atkinson III 2014
Wayne Gallman 2017
Keith Marshall 2016
Terrance West 2014
Michael Dyer 2015
Wendell Smallwood 2016
Tim Cornett 2014
Jonathan Williams 2016
C.J. Anderson 2013
Andre Ellington 2013
James White 2014
Stanley Boom Williams 2017
De'Anthony Thomas 2014
Anthony Wales 2017
Lorenzo Taliaferro 2014
Tyler Ervin 2016
Labeling these tiers as I have in previous years, that gives us:
Guys I like a lot: none
Guys I like: Mixon, Samuel, Cook
Awkwardly between tiers: McCaffrey
Guys who have a decent chance: Kamara, Perine, McNichols, Hunt, Aaron Jones, Hood, Joe Williams, Mack, Fournette
Guys I can't rule out: Conner, Foreman, McGuire, Brian Hill, Jamaal Williams, Gallman, Boom Williams, Wales
One thing that jumps out from this list is how weak this class is at the top, according to the formula. The top-rated RB this year is rated on a lower tier than the top rated RB from each of the previous 4 draft classes. And it's even worse when you consider that this year's #1 (Mixon) has major off-the-field concerns and this year's #2 (Samuel) is not really a RB (though, to be fair, there were also flags on a few of the highly-rated RBs in previous years like Lache Seastrunk, Knile Davis, and Darius Jackson).
A related thing that jumps out: how low Fournette is rated. His elusiveness rating is excellent, but other than that his numbers are averageish. Size/athleticism is only slightly above average (good size, slightly better than average 40 time, terrible vertical, skipped the other most relevant drills). Rushing efficiency is averageish (great is 2015, meh in 2016 & 2014); his 3-year stats are a bit above average on most metrics (breaking off long runs, scoring in the red zone, picking up first downs) but bad at converting in short yardage. Age & rushing volume are averageish (typical age, carried the load in 2015 but missed a bunch of games in 2016). "Average" would basically put a guy at the bottom of the last tier shown here; it's basically just his elusiveness numbers that raise him up a tier above that in my formula.
Focusing on the rest of the "decent chance" tier, from what I've seen I have generally not been that impressed with what I've seen from Jeremy McNichols, Aaron Jones, Joe Williams, and Marlon Mack. They all struggled to generate extra yards in traffic, in a way that seemed to reflect lack of basic RB skills (e.g., Mack danced around too much, Williams let defenders hit him solidly and got knocked back too often). I have been more impressed by Alvin Kamara, Samaje Perine, Elijah Hood, and Kareem Hunt (I think I'd rank them in that order). Perine and Hood are big guys who have looked good as power backs, but they're relatively slow and haven't done much in the passing game. They also both ran better in 2015 than in 2016. Kamara and Hunt are more versatile (they each had about 400 receiving yards this year). Hunt's big negative is his lack of athleticism, with a 4.62 40 at a medium-sized 216 pounds - those aren't disqualifying numbers (see: Mark Ingram, Thomas Rawls) but they're a bad sign. Kamara's big negative is his small workload, with 107 and 103 carries in his two seasons; he only led Tennessee's RBs in carries 4 times in the past 2 seasons (getting outcarried by Jalen Hurd 17 times and by John Kelly 5 times). But I think that Kamara's explosiveness (as measured by the jumps at the combine) and his success in the receiving game and the red zone give him the most upside out of this group.
Eddie Lacy 2013
Todd Gurley 2015
Melvin Gordon 2015
Christine Michael 2013
Carlos Hyde 2014
Ezekiel Elliott 2016
Joe Mixon 2017
Lache Seastrunk 2014
Jay Ajayi 2015
Curtis Samuel 2017
Tre Mason 2014
Giovani Bernard 2013
Ameer Abdullah 2015
Knile Davis 2013
Derrick Henry 2016
Darius Jackson 2016
Dalvin Cook 2017
Christian McCaffrey 2017
Jeremy Hill 2014
C.J. Prosise 2016
Jerick McKinnon 2014
Kenneth Dixon 2016
Jonathan Franklin 2013
Tevin Coleman 2015
Jordan Howard 2016
Duke Johnson 2015
Bishop Sankey 2014
Alvin Kamara 2017
DeAndre Washington 2016
Samaje Perine 2017
David Johnson 2015
Marcus Lattimore 2013
Jeremy McNichols 2017
Jhurell Pressley 2016
Stephen Houston 2014
Daniel Lasco 2016
Henry Josey 2014
Zac Stacy 2013
D.J. Harper 2013
Le'Veon Bell 2013
Kareem Hunt 2017
Cierre Wood 2013
Aaron Jones 2017
Kenjon Barner 2013
Paul Perkins 2016
Montee Ball 2013
Latavius Murray 2013
Elijah Hood 2017
Isaiah Crowell 2014
Andre Williams 2014
Charles Sims 2014
Joe Williams 2017
Dri Archer 2014
Alex Collins 2016
Marlon Mack 2017
Leonard Fournette 2017
Devonta Freeman 2014
David Cobb 2015
Devontae Booker 2016
James Conner 2017
T.J. Yeldon 2015
Cameron Artis-Payne 2015
Karlos Williams 2015
Josh Robinson 2015
Corey Grant 2015
D’Onta Foreman 2017
Kenyan Drake 2016
David Fluellen 2014
Treavor Scales 2013
Elijah McGuire 2017
Brian Hill 2017
Jeremy Langford 2015
Michael Ford 2013
Jamaal Williams 2017
Robert Godhigh 2014
Matthew Tucker 2013
Mike Davis 2015
George Atkinson III 2014
Wayne Gallman 2017
Keith Marshall 2016
Terrance West 2014
Michael Dyer 2015
Wendell Smallwood 2016
Tim Cornett 2014
Jonathan Williams 2016
C.J. Anderson 2013
Andre Ellington 2013
James White 2014
Stanley Boom Williams 2017
De'Anthony Thomas 2014
Anthony Wales 2017
Lorenzo Taliaferro 2014
Tyler Ervin 2016
Labeling these tiers as I have in previous years, that gives us:
Guys I like a lot: none
Guys I like: Mixon, Samuel, Cook
Awkwardly between tiers: McCaffrey
Guys who have a decent chance: Kamara, Perine, McNichols, Hunt, Aaron Jones, Hood, Joe Williams, Mack, Fournette
Guys I can't rule out: Conner, Foreman, McGuire, Brian Hill, Jamaal Williams, Gallman, Boom Williams, Wales
One thing that jumps out from this list is how weak this class is at the top, according to the formula. The top-rated RB this year is rated on a lower tier than the top rated RB from each of the previous 4 draft classes. And it's even worse when you consider that this year's #1 (Mixon) has major off-the-field concerns and this year's #2 (Samuel) is not really a RB (though, to be fair, there were also flags on a few of the highly-rated RBs in previous years like Lache Seastrunk, Knile Davis, and Darius Jackson).
A related thing that jumps out: how low Fournette is rated. His elusiveness rating is excellent, but other than that his numbers are averageish. Size/athleticism is only slightly above average (good size, slightly better than average 40 time, terrible vertical, skipped the other most relevant drills). Rushing efficiency is averageish (great is 2015, meh in 2016 & 2014); his 3-year stats are a bit above average on most metrics (breaking off long runs, scoring in the red zone, picking up first downs) but bad at converting in short yardage. Age & rushing volume are averageish (typical age, carried the load in 2015 but missed a bunch of games in 2016). "Average" would basically put a guy at the bottom of the last tier shown here; it's basically just his elusiveness numbers that raise him up a tier above that in my formula.
Focusing on the rest of the "decent chance" tier, from what I've seen I have generally not been that impressed with what I've seen from Jeremy McNichols, Aaron Jones, Joe Williams, and Marlon Mack. They all struggled to generate extra yards in traffic, in a way that seemed to reflect lack of basic RB skills (e.g., Mack danced around too much, Williams let defenders hit him solidly and got knocked back too often). I have been more impressed by Alvin Kamara, Samaje Perine, Elijah Hood, and Kareem Hunt (I think I'd rank them in that order). Perine and Hood are big guys who have looked good as power backs, but they're relatively slow and haven't done much in the passing game. They also both ran better in 2015 than in 2016. Kamara and Hunt are more versatile (they each had about 400 receiving yards this year). Hunt's big negative is his lack of athleticism, with a 4.62 40 at a medium-sized 216 pounds - those aren't disqualifying numbers (see: Mark Ingram, Thomas Rawls) but they're a bad sign. Kamara's big negative is his small workload, with 107 and 103 carries in his two seasons; he only led Tennessee's RBs in carries 4 times in the past 2 seasons (getting outcarried by Jalen Hurd 17 times and by John Kelly 5 times). But I think that Kamara's explosiveness (as measured by the jumps at the combine) and his success in the receiving game and the red zone give him the most upside out of this group.
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voiceofunreason
Footballguy
I'm curious if you ignore this year with Fournette and just look at his 2015, would his numbers be closer to elite?
ZWK
Footballguy
Yes. Fournette was my top rated RB a year ago. The combine would've brought his numbers down, but he still would've been close to Ezekiel Elliott (probably slightly ahead of Elliott, but I don't have an easy way to get the exact number).
ZWK
Footballguy
There are 7 RBs who ran at the combine but had not made my spreadsheet. 5 had too small of a workload to make the cut (Christopher Carson, Rushel Shell, Dare Ogunbowale, Justin Davis, T.J. Logan) and 2 went to non-FBS schools (Tarik Cohen & De'Angelo Henderson). On first pass, it looks none of them make the cut for the tiers I included in my previous post, although 3 of them come close: T.J. Logan, De'Angelo Henderson, and Christopher Carson. Henderson looks like the most interesting of the three; his 2014 game against North Dakota State is online and I liked his tenacity in fighting for extra yardage. Might be worth keeping an eye on.
ZWK
Footballguy
Elijah Hood had a lousy pro day, with a 40 around 4.6, a vertical of 31.5, and a broad jump of 9'5". He moves down a tier in my rankings, and now sits in between James Conner & D'Onta Foreman at the top of the "can't rule 'em out" tier.
The depth in this draft is looking a lot stronger at WR and TE than at RB.
The depth in this draft is looking a lot stronger at WR and TE than at RB.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Had a foot issue that the doctors wouldn't allow him to run with. He wanted to run but they overrode him.
ZWK
Footballguy
He moves up a full tier and slots in just ahead of McNichols (behind Perine & Kamara). That is counting him as 4.47 40, 33" vert, 10'0" broad, 6'0.125" height, and 234 lbs.
That seems about right to me. Once the McCaffrey tier is gone, then the top options are Perine, Kamara, and Foreman. In PPR Kamara probably leads that trio; in non-PPR it's a tougher call. The whole RB ranking comes pretty close to my intuitions, if we just swap Samuel and Fournette.
ZWK
Footballguy
I mainly like him because of his 13.0 yards per target, plus the fact that the rest of his stats were pretty good (especially once you adjust for the fact that Tennessee didn't throw the ball much (87th out of 128 in pass att). And of course his 6'2.8" size & 4.40 speed help.
I don't really know why other sites don't like him; their writeups will tell you more about that than I could. PFF just did their writeup on him; the main negative looks to be that he is not a sudden athlete, needs space to get up to speed & gain separation, struggles with press coverage. Might be a Malcom Floyd type deep threat?
ZWK
Footballguy
Godwin's production was decent but unremarkable; he didn't make any of the receiving leaderboards which I posted here. And my formula takes production as the starting point, in a way that makes it impossible to make up for that with other traits like size & athleticism.
He did do a very good job of consistently getting open, according to Matt Harmon's Reception Perception numbers, so I suspect that my formula is underrating him. If I had to draft today, I'd probably have him as a mid 2nd rounder (near the bottom of my list of top 10 WRs).
ZWK
Footballguy
My typical process after the NFL draft is to start with my generic rookie rankings, which are based only on NFL draft pick and can be tailored to a particular league's scoring system. Then I tinker with things ad hoc based on various factors. The main ones are my ratings, other ratings & analyses which are based heavily on stats or at least counting (like PFF's rankings, Football Outsiders' projections, and Harmon's Reception Perception), the general opinion among draftniks & other fantasy players, specific reasons why a player's fantasy value wouldn't match his NFL value (e.g., fantasy owners should care more about upside & less about risk and off-the-field issues than NFL owners, blocking matters for NFL TEs more than fantasy TEs), and more subjective things (like which RBs looked good to me when I watched them, or what my sense is of why a player did worse in his last season than his previous season).
Before the NFL draft I do something similar. I use projected draft spot (from sources like these) instead of actual draft spot to make something like my generic rankings, I'm more willing to move players farther away from what the generic rankings say (since the pre-draft generic rankings are less accurate), and I am less thorough / put less effort into getting precise rankings because things are still more in flux. I do have one league which drafts before the NFL draft, but it's a slow draft so I can wait and take a closer look at the few players who I'm deciding between with one of my picks.
Here is how I ranked last year's rookie class shortly after the draft. You can compare with the forum poll rankings.
ZWK
Footballguy
PFF rankings are out (with more detail than what they posted earlier in the offfseason).
Here is their top 100 ranking of NFL prospects (Myles Garrett is #1), with brief capsules on each of the guys in the top 100. The ranking is based on their opinions, but presumably incorporates a lot of what they've learned from their advanced stats & grades, as well as just from watching lots of video of these guys playing.
It has links at the bottom to rankings for each position, including the fantasy relevant positions of RB, WR, TE, and QB. Those pages include their opinion-based ranking of the top 10-15 players, as well as charts showing how a larger set of players ranked in terms of their PFF grade and various advanced stats (e.g., drop rate for WRs & TEs, yards after contact for RBs).
They also have a much longer WR ranking, which is 73 players long and includes a capsule for each player.
It's interesting how dramatically their opinion-based rankings can differ from their grades. They graded ArDarius Stewart as the 64th overall WR in college football, based on his grades for each play, but they have him ranked as the #9 WR prospect. At the other extreme, Austin Carr was the highest graded WR in college football this year, but is ranked as the 49th best WR prospect.
Here is their top 100 ranking of NFL prospects (Myles Garrett is #1), with brief capsules on each of the guys in the top 100. The ranking is based on their opinions, but presumably incorporates a lot of what they've learned from their advanced stats & grades, as well as just from watching lots of video of these guys playing.
It has links at the bottom to rankings for each position, including the fantasy relevant positions of RB, WR, TE, and QB. Those pages include their opinion-based ranking of the top 10-15 players, as well as charts showing how a larger set of players ranked in terms of their PFF grade and various advanced stats (e.g., drop rate for WRs & TEs, yards after contact for RBs).
They also have a much longer WR ranking, which is 73 players long and includes a capsule for each player.
It's interesting how dramatically their opinion-based rankings can differ from their grades. They graded ArDarius Stewart as the 64th overall WR in college football, based on his grades for each play, but they have him ranked as the #9 WR prospect. At the other extreme, Austin Carr was the highest graded WR in college football this year, but is ranked as the 49th best WR prospect.
ZWK
Footballguy
Matt Harmon has published Reception Perception stats on several more WRs, and I have added a stretch of schedule adjustment (based on average opponent DSRS in the games that Harmon charted). Here is what I have so far for adjusted success rate:
82.8% Carlos Henderson
80.6% Isaiah Ford
78.3% Chris Godwin
75.2% Mike Williams
74.9% Taywan Taylor
74.1% Ryan Switzer
73.5% Corey Davis
73.5% John Ross
72.8% Ishmael Zamora
70.8% Chad Hansen
70.6% Zay Jones
(69.2% 2016 average)
67.5% JuJu Smith-Schuster
61.9% Cooper Kupp
Ilov80s
Footballguy
@ZWK was Zamora's production just so low that your formula has him written off? His pro day was spectacular
https://twitter.com/tampabaytre/status/849667308448604160
https://twitter.com/tampabaytre/status/849667308448604160
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Those are some huge swings.ZWK said:
Makes me wonder how much they actually value their own grading systems when Stewart can be 9th and 64th. It seems like the higher ranking may be based on projected draft position rather than their own grades?
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
He's by far the most underrated RB in this class and will certainly be a still for any Dynasty Owner that has been paying attention. He's Kenneth Dixon Lite (don't like to compare college to NFL but if I did) He's 40 was a tad slow but his other numbers were great and the guy can flat out play. You won't see him on many rankings but it's because most rankings are about popularity contests, following the heard type rankings. Take a look at his numbers and career for yourself and grab him when you can.
Tex
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I'm very interested in where he'll be drafted. Surely if I had my draft today I could get him in the 6th or 7th round. He's on zero radars right now but that could all change come draft day.
Tex
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Aaron Jones is one of a pretty long list of RB that the Vikings have met with.
I watched these 3 games at full speed just now. He does have one really big run against the Longhorns who otherwise had been bottling him up for most of that game. He has some explosive acceleration when he gets a crease. There were a couple others runs like this I saw from him that didn't lead to as long a gain, but where if he can find that crease, he has another gear that can kick in and cause him to cover a lot of space. Once he gets going like this, he can be hard for college defenders to get a good tackle on him. It is very sudden.
I have not seen a lot of elusiveness or change or direction from him in these games. I question what he is seeing sometimes too, but for the most part I think the Longhorns and Arkansas defenses are winning the line of scrimmage. The seem to have an advantage over the blocking. A lot of plays, there just isn't much there to work with.
His college stats seem fine, he showed improvement in his last season, Only 2 games played in 2015. What kind of injury or other reason did he miss most of that season?
He played well in 2014 and then still improving in 2016, so whatever the injury (if that is what it was) he seems to have recovered from it fine.
He had very good combine numbers besides his 40 time. His jump numbers were second only to Kamara out of the 2017 RB and his 3 cone time was above average, which suggests there may be more elusiveness to his game than I have seen in brief viewing. The jump numbers make sense in the context of how you can see him accelerate very quickly at times when he has some space ahead of him to do so.
He has a nice stiff arm to help him extend plays one on one. He doesn't jolt defenders with this, but he keeps them from being able to get to him while he gains more yards.
Interesting player who might be drafted higher than some are currently talking about.
eta - two too many times I saw him try to just lay down in front of a DE and hope the guy gets slowed down. That will not cut it in the NFL.
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ZWK
Footballguy
Yes. He had below average production (compared to the 100 players with the most receiving yards this year), and that is a dealbreaker in my formula (overall player ratings drop off sharply once a receiver's production rating gets below +4.0). I haven't updated his speed/athleticism numbers yet, but it won't matter much when I do.Ilov80s said:
Looking at a broader range of indicators:
Negatives: Production was pretty bad (low volume and only 7.5 YPT). High drop rate (10 drops on 73 catchable passes, Sammie Coates is the only WR I know of who had a worse drop rate and was drafted in the top 100 picks, though some others were close: Will Fuller, Breshad Perriman, Marqise Lee, Justin Hunter). Ran a limited route tree and was below average at getting open on every down-the-field route (everything longer than a slant). Character/off-the-field issues.
Positives: Good size & athleticism. Got open at an averageish rate, on the whole (according to Reception Perception data). Left school early, so there is a chance that he would've developed into a more productive college receiver over the next year or two if he'd stayed in school.
Seems like a plausible sleeper choice if you're looking for a late-round dart throw. Outside of the top 100 or so NFL draft picks, I think it make sense to pay more attention to "reasons why the NFL might have missed on this guy" rather than "reasons why this guy looks like a strong overall prospect", and in that context there is a stronger case to be made for someone like Zamora in comparison to guys like Shelton Gibson or Josh Reynolds (Martavis Bryant is the obvious comparison here). I still probably won't end up taking him in any of my drafts.
ZWK
Footballguy
He makes the "Guys who have a decent chance" tier by my formula, coming in as the #9 RB prospect in the draft class (near guys like McNichols, Hunt, and Mack), which I think is in the right ballpark. The Texas game is the only game video of his from this season that I've found (along with 2 from earlier years and some highlights); he showed some quickness against Texas when there was a big hole but on the whole I was not that impressed. But he did rank 4th in the country in yards after contact per carry, according to PFF, which is a good sign. I would definitely put him behind Perine & Hunt, but I think he's in the next bunch of RBs after that.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
He tore ligaments in one of his ankles in 2015, if he is drafted by the Vikes that would cause many to take a closer look at him. I currently have him at the end of Tier 2 and with some coaching and experience he has the potential to be good. Not a stud or elite but good.
Tex
ZWK
Footballguy
Here is how Football Outsiders ranks this year's WR class, using their Playmaker Score rating which is based on college stats, combine performance, and whether they're entering the draft early (with the exact stats and weightings selected by running a regression on historical data). (These rankings do not take into account a player's expected draft position, although FO also gives a "Playmaker Projection" which does take that into account.) Here are their top 23 WRs in this draft class, along with (for context) their top WRs from the previous 3 draft classes.
2016 Corey Coleman Baylor
2017 Jalen Robinette Air Force
2017 Curtis Samuel Ohio State
2017 Carlos Henderson Louisiana Tech
2017 John Ross Washington
2014 Brandin Cooks Oregon St.
2015 Amari Cooper Alabama
2016 Will Fuller Notre Dame
2017 Dede Westbrook Oklahoma
2014 Odell Beckham Jr. LSU
2014 Marqise Lee USC
2017 Corey Davis Western Michigan
2015 Sammie Coates Auburn
2016 Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh
2015 Stefon Diggs Maryland
2016 Pharoh Cooper South Carolina
2016 Rashard Higgins Colorado State
2014 Davante Adams Fresno St.
2015 Nelson Agholor Southern California
2014 Allen Robinson Penn St.
2014 Paul Richardson Colorado
2014 Kelvin Benjamin Florida St.
2015 Breshad Perriman UCF
2017 Chris Godwin Penn State
2014 Mike Evans Texas A&M
2014 Austin Franklin New Mexico St.
2015 DeAndre Smelter Georgia Tech
2017 K.D. Cannon Baylor
2015 Titus Davis Central Mich.
2017 Isaiah Ford Virginia Tech
2014 Martavis Bryant Clemson
2016 Roger Lewis Bowling Green
2017 Josh Reynolds Texas A&M
2014 Sammy Watkins Clemson
2014 Willie Snead Ball St.
2014 Bruce Ellington South Carolina
2017 Shelton Gibson West Virginia
2014 Jarvis Landry LSU
2015 Jaelen Strong Arizona St.
2015 Tyler Lockett Kansas St.
2014 Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
2017 Malachi Dupre LSU
2016 Michael Thomas Ohio State
2017 JuJu Smith-Schuster Southern California
2016 Demarcus Ayers Houston
2017 Taywan Taylor W. Kentucky
2017 Josh Malone Tennessee
2017 Jerome Lane Akron
2016 Bralon Addison Oregon
2017 Isaiah McKenzie Georgia
2014 Cody Latimer Indiana
2016 Leonte Carroo Rutgers
2015 Devin Smith Ohio St.
2017 ArDarius Stewart Alabama
2014 Brandon Coleman Rutgers
2014 Josh Huff Oregon
2017 Kenny Golladay Northern Illinois
2015 Devin Funchess Michigan
2016 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma
2017 Mike Williams Clemson
2016 Josh Doctson TCU
2015 Darren Waller Georgia Tech
2016 Laquon Treadwell Mississippi
2017 Chad Hansen California
2015 Dorial Green-Beckham Missouri
2015 Tony Lippett Michigan St.
2014 Damian Copeland Louisville
2014 Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt
2014 Jeremy Gallon Michigan
2017 Travis Rudolph Florida State
2015 Antwan Goodley Baylor
2016 Demarcus Robinson Florida
2017 Keevan Lucas Tulsa
2015 Phillip Dorsett Miami (FL)
2016 Jalin Marshall Ohio State
There are a lot of similarities between their ratings for this class and mine. Both systems see this as a deep draft class and are on board with Corey Davis in the first round. Both are down on Mike Williams and way down on Zay Jones & Amara Darboh. Both are high on Carlos Henderson, Jalen Robinette, Curtis Samuel, and Dede Westbrook. FO is higher than I am on John Ross, Chris Godwin, KD Cannon, Isaiah Ford, and Malachi Dupre. I am higher on Amba Etta-Tawo, Taywan Taylor, Josh Malone, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
2016 Corey Coleman Baylor
2017 Jalen Robinette Air Force
2017 Curtis Samuel Ohio State
2017 Carlos Henderson Louisiana Tech
2017 John Ross Washington
2014 Brandin Cooks Oregon St.
2015 Amari Cooper Alabama
2016 Will Fuller Notre Dame
2017 Dede Westbrook Oklahoma
2014 Odell Beckham Jr. LSU
2014 Marqise Lee USC
2017 Corey Davis Western Michigan
2015 Sammie Coates Auburn
2016 Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh
2015 Stefon Diggs Maryland
2016 Pharoh Cooper South Carolina
2016 Rashard Higgins Colorado State
2014 Davante Adams Fresno St.
2015 Nelson Agholor Southern California
2014 Allen Robinson Penn St.
2014 Paul Richardson Colorado
2014 Kelvin Benjamin Florida St.
2015 Breshad Perriman UCF
2017 Chris Godwin Penn State
2014 Mike Evans Texas A&M
2014 Austin Franklin New Mexico St.
2015 DeAndre Smelter Georgia Tech
2017 K.D. Cannon Baylor
2015 Titus Davis Central Mich.
2017 Isaiah Ford Virginia Tech
2014 Martavis Bryant Clemson
2016 Roger Lewis Bowling Green
2017 Josh Reynolds Texas A&M
2014 Sammy Watkins Clemson
2014 Willie Snead Ball St.
2014 Bruce Ellington South Carolina
2017 Shelton Gibson West Virginia
2014 Jarvis Landry LSU
2015 Jaelen Strong Arizona St.
2015 Tyler Lockett Kansas St.
2014 Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
2017 Malachi Dupre LSU
2016 Michael Thomas Ohio State
2017 JuJu Smith-Schuster Southern California
2016 Demarcus Ayers Houston
2017 Taywan Taylor W. Kentucky
2017 Josh Malone Tennessee
2017 Jerome Lane Akron
2016 Bralon Addison Oregon
2017 Isaiah McKenzie Georgia
2014 Cody Latimer Indiana
2016 Leonte Carroo Rutgers
2015 Devin Smith Ohio St.
2017 ArDarius Stewart Alabama
2014 Brandon Coleman Rutgers
2014 Josh Huff Oregon
2017 Kenny Golladay Northern Illinois
2015 Devin Funchess Michigan
2016 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma
2017 Mike Williams Clemson
2016 Josh Doctson TCU
2015 Darren Waller Georgia Tech
2016 Laquon Treadwell Mississippi
2017 Chad Hansen California
2015 Dorial Green-Beckham Missouri
2015 Tony Lippett Michigan St.
2014 Damian Copeland Louisville
2014 Jordan Matthews Vanderbilt
2014 Jeremy Gallon Michigan
2017 Travis Rudolph Florida State
2015 Antwan Goodley Baylor
2016 Demarcus Robinson Florida
2017 Keevan Lucas Tulsa
2015 Phillip Dorsett Miami (FL)
2016 Jalin Marshall Ohio State
There are a lot of similarities between their ratings for this class and mine. Both systems see this as a deep draft class and are on board with Corey Davis in the first round. Both are down on Mike Williams and way down on Zay Jones & Amara Darboh. Both are high on Carlos Henderson, Jalen Robinette, Curtis Samuel, and Dede Westbrook. FO is higher than I am on John Ross, Chris Godwin, KD Cannon, Isaiah Ford, and Malachi Dupre. I am higher on Amba Etta-Tawo, Taywan Taylor, Josh Malone, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
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